0:00:09 > 0:00:11Welcome to HARDtalk, I'm Stephen Sackur.
0:00:11 > 0:00:14After five years of bloodletting and suffering, the Syrian war has
0:00:14 > 0:00:19a new, potentially game-changing dynamic.
0:00:19 > 0:00:24The combined forces of the Assad regime and its Iranian and Russian
0:00:24 > 0:00:27backers are pushing back the rebels in the north and west
0:00:27 > 0:00:29of the country.
0:00:29 > 0:00:33A mooted truce appears to have been brokered on Russia's terms,
0:00:33 > 0:00:36and seems unlikely to halt the military push.
0:00:36 > 0:00:39My guest today is Bassma Kodmani, a representative of the so-called
0:00:39 > 0:00:42moderate rebels.
0:00:42 > 0:00:47Is the only realistic choice in Syria today Assad,
0:00:47 > 0:00:57or Islamic State?
0:01:14 > 0:01:17Bassma Kodmani, welcome to HARDtalk.
0:01:17 > 0:01:18Thank you.
0:01:18 > 0:01:22This is the strangest of weeks in the Syria conflict,
0:01:22 > 0:01:25because by the end of the week we are supposed to be seeing
0:01:25 > 0:01:29a quote-unquote cessation of hostilities, and yet day by day
0:01:29 > 0:01:34right now we hear of the most terrible new acts of violence.
0:01:34 > 0:01:37In the last few hours, strikes against hospitals,
0:01:37 > 0:01:41a medical facility in the north of the country.
0:01:41 > 0:01:45What, in your view, is going on right now?
0:01:45 > 0:01:49Probably because of the announcement of cessation of hostilities,
0:01:49 > 0:01:54the parties are positioning themselves as best as they can.
0:01:54 > 0:01:58I suppose Russia, if it believes in any way in what it has signed,
0:01:58 > 0:02:01which is an agreement on cessation of hostilities by the end
0:02:01 > 0:02:05of the week, then it is trying to make the biggest gains it can
0:02:05 > 0:02:06make this week, in these coming days.
0:02:06 > 0:02:10And that is not something that will happen, I think,
0:02:10 > 0:02:16without any response from neighbouring countries.
0:02:16 > 0:02:19You mean Turkey, in particular, because many of the strikes right
0:02:19 > 0:02:23now are happening close to the Turkish border
0:02:23 > 0:02:26in the north of Syria.
0:02:26 > 0:02:28Clearly for Turkey, Turkey's anger and frustration with the situation
0:02:28 > 0:02:30has been growing.
0:02:30 > 0:02:34It is now at a point where it sees that no-one is going to come
0:02:34 > 0:02:38in support of its own vital national interests.
0:02:38 > 0:02:41And I think it has made a decision that, whatever happens,
0:02:41 > 0:02:44it is going to defend its vital interests, and those vital interests
0:02:44 > 0:02:48can be defined.
0:02:48 > 0:02:51They are, first and foremost, the Kurdish issue, which impacts
0:02:51 > 0:02:58Turkey's internal stability and internal national cohesion,
0:02:58 > 0:03:02as well as it has taken a position against the Assad regime.
0:03:02 > 0:03:10It cannot see the Assad regime prevail again,
0:03:10 > 0:03:13because it sees this as future years of attempts to destabilise it
0:03:13 > 0:03:14by the regime.
0:03:14 > 0:03:17Well, we will come back to analysis of the Turkish condition
0:03:17 > 0:03:19and all the key international players in this conflict
0:03:19 > 0:03:20in a short while.
0:03:20 > 0:03:24But I want to begin by getting to grips with the position
0:03:24 > 0:03:27of your grouping of, let's say, moderate forces,
0:03:27 > 0:03:31both political and military, inside Syria.
0:03:31 > 0:03:34You have represented them for the best part of the last four
0:03:34 > 0:03:35or five years.
0:03:35 > 0:03:38I just want to get a very simple question out of the way.
0:03:38 > 0:03:40Do the groups that you are associated with,
0:03:40 > 0:03:42the so-called moderates, recognise this cessation
0:03:42 > 0:03:45of hostilities deal?
0:03:45 > 0:03:50Will the fighters that you, in a sense, speak for,
0:03:50 > 0:03:52be silencing their guns by the end of this week?
0:03:52 > 0:03:55If there is a stop of air bombings by Russia.
0:03:55 > 0:03:58The air campaign has jeopardised the whole attempt to get,
0:03:58 > 0:04:03really, to a point where there is a cessation of hostilities.
0:04:03 > 0:04:08The groups who went along with the political opposition,
0:04:08 > 0:04:11these were military groups represented in Geneva two weeks ago,
0:04:11 > 0:04:16when talks were supposed to start, peace talks were supposed to start
0:04:16 > 0:04:23in Geneva, with the regime.
0:04:23 > 0:04:25Those groups were represented, they were there.
0:04:25 > 0:04:27And they came because they were sincerely planning to abide
0:04:27 > 0:04:29by any political arrangement.
0:04:29 > 0:04:33Now, the humanitarian situation was no...
0:04:33 > 0:04:36Not any better, and this was an important requirement
0:04:36 > 0:04:38for the talks to start.
0:04:38 > 0:04:44But more importantly, the air campaign by Russia started.
0:04:44 > 0:04:46So the opposition, both political and military,
0:04:46 > 0:04:50was left with no choice but to ask for a suspension of the peace talks,
0:04:50 > 0:04:53which in fact never really started.
0:04:53 > 0:04:57No, but as far as you are concerned now, you are not going to take part
0:04:57 > 0:05:00in any mooted further peace talks, are you?
0:05:00 > 0:05:03Because the idea of the Americans is to get back to Geneva and get
0:05:03 > 0:05:05back to talking before the end of February.
0:05:05 > 0:05:07But your groupings are not interested anymore?
0:05:07 > 0:05:08Of course they are.
0:05:08 > 0:05:16I think it is very important to continue to say that the opposition
0:05:16 > 0:05:17is genuinely committed to a political process.
0:05:17 > 0:05:22But the political process will never happen if the minimal conditions
0:05:22 > 0:05:24that the opposition has set, what it has been fighting
0:05:24 > 0:05:26for for five years, are not met.
0:05:26 > 0:05:29When I say minimal, we know what that means today.
0:05:29 > 0:05:31And Russia understands, and every country that has been
0:05:31 > 0:05:36involved in this process understands, what that means.
0:05:36 > 0:05:41That means that Assad is not part of transition negotiations.
0:05:41 > 0:05:46He is still there, until we reach an agreement
0:05:46 > 0:05:49on what the transition looks like.
0:05:49 > 0:05:52And it should look like what we have defined in the Geneva document,
0:05:52 > 0:05:55four years ago now, what we have redefined and reconfirmed in several
0:05:55 > 0:06:00documents signed by Russia, signed by the United States,
0:06:00 > 0:06:01that a transition...
0:06:01 > 0:06:03Yes, but if I may interrupt you, things have changed.
0:06:03 > 0:06:07You are still banging on about Assad having absolutely no role
0:06:07 > 0:06:10in the transition, when it has become painfully obvious in recent
0:06:10 > 0:06:14weeks that the Russians are driving this process forward.
0:06:14 > 0:06:17And as far as they are concerned, Assad is essential to
0:06:17 > 0:06:18Syria's future.
0:06:18 > 0:06:21They are not letting him go, they are now buttressing his power.
0:06:21 > 0:06:25And as we now know from Mr Assad himself, an interview a few days
0:06:25 > 0:06:30ago, he now firmly believes he can achieve full military victory,
0:06:30 > 0:06:34thanks to Russia's and Iran's support.
0:06:34 > 0:06:37Look, even Russian observers themselves say that what Assad says
0:06:37 > 0:06:39himself doesn't matter that much.
0:06:39 > 0:06:42He is not a player any more in this equation.
0:06:42 > 0:06:44The player is Russia.
0:06:44 > 0:06:47Russia is clearly calling the shots.
0:06:47 > 0:06:50Do you believe that the Russians right now are, in a sense,
0:06:50 > 0:06:52running rings, diplomatically speaking, around the Americans
0:06:52 > 0:06:55and the Western powers?
0:06:55 > 0:07:00I think Russia has defined its strategy, has decided that it
0:07:00 > 0:07:02would keep the regime in place, not necessarily Assad,
0:07:02 > 0:07:05maybe in the future.
0:07:05 > 0:07:07But for now it needs Assad, because Assad provides legality
0:07:07 > 0:07:11for its own intervention, international legality.
0:07:11 > 0:07:14Russia says it intervened on the request of the Syrian regime.
0:07:14 > 0:07:16It therefore needs Assad.
0:07:16 > 0:07:21Assad - whatever you say, Assad is very much a player.
0:07:21 > 0:07:23Well, Assad is still sitting in power in Damascus,
0:07:23 > 0:07:27but he doesn't call the shots.
0:07:27 > 0:07:29He is not the one who makes the decisions.
0:07:29 > 0:07:32On the ground, his troops are not even visible.
0:07:32 > 0:07:37But we see armed militias from Iran, from Iraq, from Hezbollah,
0:07:37 > 0:07:41Lebanon, and these are the militias, these are the Shia-led militias
0:07:41 > 0:07:45who are fighting against the revolutionary groups,
0:07:46 > 0:07:48the rebel groups everywhere.
0:07:48 > 0:07:51And your fighters, if I can put it that way, they are such a loose
0:07:51 > 0:07:54association of so-called moderate fighters, it is very hard to call
0:07:54 > 0:07:57them fighters, for example the fighters who were defending
0:07:57 > 0:08:03Aleppo, and areas around Aleppo in the north,
0:08:03 > 0:08:05they are losing, losing big-time.
0:08:05 > 0:08:06Yes, they are.
0:08:06 > 0:08:10But being confronted by what they are, do you know how
0:08:10 > 0:08:15many enemies these groups are fighting today?
0:08:15 > 0:08:17They are fighting Russia from the air, they are fighting Iran
0:08:17 > 0:08:22and the regime on the ground, they are fighting Daesh,
0:08:22 > 0:08:24of course, because Daesh is attacking at the same time,
0:08:24 > 0:08:29and taking advantage of the situation to attack,
0:08:29 > 0:08:32and the fourth one, unfortunately, are the Kurdish groups,
0:08:32 > 0:08:37what we call the PYD groups, which is the radical Kurdish groups
0:08:37 > 0:08:40with the secessionist agenda in Syria.
0:08:40 > 0:08:45Sure, there are all these groups who frankly right now are militarily
0:08:45 > 0:08:48much more effective than the groups you are associated with.
0:08:48 > 0:08:50All it means is that you, the so-called Syrian moderates,
0:08:50 > 0:08:54have no leverage left at all.
0:08:54 > 0:08:58You are barely players in the game anymore.
0:08:58 > 0:08:59They are players.
0:08:59 > 0:09:01They are delaying the attacks, they are making it more difficult.
0:09:01 > 0:09:03That is all they can do at this stage.
0:09:03 > 0:09:08But the point is that what are we looking at politically?
0:09:08 > 0:09:12Because if we are only going to say these have anti-tank missiles,
0:09:12 > 0:09:15and the others have aircrafts, then is this what will...
0:09:15 > 0:09:18Are these the terms on which we will develop a political process,
0:09:18 > 0:09:23and a political agreement?
0:09:23 > 0:09:25I don't think any of these powers, whether it is Russia
0:09:25 > 0:09:30or the United States or any of the actors on the ground,
0:09:30 > 0:09:33or even Iran, are saying that this will determine an acceptable
0:09:33 > 0:09:39political settlement that will stabilise Syria.
0:09:39 > 0:09:42Well, stabilise is the word, and if we just leave the military
0:09:42 > 0:09:45and the political aspects for a moment, and talk humanitarian,
0:09:45 > 0:09:48stability there is so very important for all the players.
0:09:48 > 0:09:54But particularly for Turkey, the neighbouring states,
0:09:54 > 0:09:56and then for Europe, because of the huge numbers
0:09:56 > 0:10:00of refugees who are escaping the bloodshed and the suffering
0:10:00 > 0:10:03in Syria, and going ultimately, many of them, toward Europe.
0:10:03 > 0:10:08Do you, from what you see and hear on the ground,
0:10:08 > 0:10:11fear that the exodus of Syrians from Syria,
0:10:11 > 0:10:13particularly in the areas around Aleppo and in the north
0:10:13 > 0:10:17of the country right now, is going to accelerate once again?
0:10:17 > 0:10:18Of course.
0:10:18 > 0:10:23There is every risk that the refugee issue will become...
0:10:23 > 0:10:26Will accelerate, and will become much more serious in the weeks
0:10:26 > 0:10:31to come, if the situation is what it is.
0:10:31 > 0:10:34And if it is not, there is nothing, there is no political horizon.
0:10:34 > 0:10:38We have a very dangerous situation on the ground,
0:10:38 > 0:10:40but we have the opportunity right now to say what would create
0:10:40 > 0:10:43in Syria conditions for stabilisation.
0:10:43 > 0:10:47Stabilisation will take a long time, and lots of effort, and the groups
0:10:47 > 0:10:53on the ground will have to commit, and some who will not commit will be
0:10:53 > 0:10:56considered spoilers, and will have to be fought.
0:10:56 > 0:10:59I think the moderate opposition will go along with that.
0:10:59 > 0:11:02If we were to reach cessation of hostilities, these groups will be
0:11:02 > 0:11:05excluded if they don't abide by an agreement.
0:11:05 > 0:11:11Therefore, if there is no process that takes those terms
0:11:11 > 0:11:15into consideration, we are in for something very dangerous.
0:11:15 > 0:11:18Remember Iraq 12 years ago, 13 years ago maybe now,
0:11:18 > 0:11:23when George Bush decided to invade Iraq, and we are still
0:11:23 > 0:11:25paying the price.
0:11:25 > 0:11:26What is the price?
0:11:26 > 0:11:29The price is the loss of Iraq altogether, and the emergence
0:11:29 > 0:11:32of a monster, Daesh.
0:11:32 > 0:11:35Daesh is out there because of the policy
0:11:35 > 0:11:36which was brought in Iraq.
0:11:36 > 0:11:40And I fear that they are doing the same today in Syria.
0:11:40 > 0:11:43One thing that strikes me very powerfully right now
0:11:43 > 0:11:45is that the more I read about what is happening
0:11:45 > 0:11:49on the ground, in places like Aleppo, the more I realise that
0:11:49 > 0:11:52many of the fighters who used to perhaps self-describe themselves
0:11:52 > 0:11:57as moderates have given up on this idea that the Western powers
0:11:57 > 0:12:00are somehow going to help them with funding and arms,
0:12:00 > 0:12:04and back them in their struggle against the Assad regime,
0:12:04 > 0:12:07and against Daesh, the Islamic State.
0:12:07 > 0:12:12And many of them, it seems, are now actively joining
0:12:12 > 0:12:17the jihadists, whether it be Nusra Front or Islamic State itself.
0:12:17 > 0:12:20Fighters who used to be loyal to your position are now giving up
0:12:20 > 0:12:23on any idea that there is room for moderation,
0:12:23 > 0:12:29and they are actively now joining the jihadists.
0:12:29 > 0:12:32Well, they are definitely very disappointed with Western powers,
0:12:32 > 0:12:35particularly the United States.
0:12:35 > 0:12:39The support has not come, and the picture could have been very
0:12:39 > 0:12:41different had they received the kind of support they needed.
0:12:41 > 0:12:46Not only in arms, and maybe not specially in arms,
0:12:46 > 0:12:49but more in organisational capacity, the ability to raise an army,
0:12:49 > 0:12:53to organise it, to provide central command, et cetera.
0:12:53 > 0:12:55With respect, you can't blame the Americans.
0:12:55 > 0:12:58The Americans committed $500 million to a training programme
0:12:58 > 0:13:01for quote-unquote moderate fighters.
0:13:01 > 0:13:04Most of that money was siphoned off, was lost.
0:13:04 > 0:13:08And those fighters who were trained were put into theatre in Syria,
0:13:08 > 0:13:13most of them either ran away or gave up both themselves
0:13:13 > 0:13:16and their weaponry to the Nusra Front, and the Americans
0:13:16 > 0:13:19have washed their hands on it, and said, these moderates,
0:13:19 > 0:13:21they are totally incompetent and unreliable.
0:13:21 > 0:13:24The programme from the start was ill-conceived, and there was no
0:13:24 > 0:13:25political will to implement it.
0:13:25 > 0:13:28The money was not spent on the rebels.
0:13:28 > 0:13:31Had it been spent, I assure you, it would have been a very,
0:13:31 > 0:13:32very different result.
0:13:32 > 0:13:33Is that not your fault?
0:13:33 > 0:13:37The Division 30 men who were put on the ground, we now know,
0:13:37 > 0:13:41on the record, gave most of their weaponry to the local
0:13:41 > 0:13:44commanders of the Nusra Front, a group that is associated with Al
0:13:44 > 0:13:47Qaeda.
0:13:47 > 0:13:51That is why it is that it was most important to organise the people,
0:13:51 > 0:13:54provide salaries to the fighters.
0:13:54 > 0:13:55And then you would have an army.
0:13:55 > 0:13:56You would have soldiers.
0:13:56 > 0:13:58You have people committed to their units.
0:13:58 > 0:13:59That never happened.
0:13:59 > 0:14:02This...
0:14:02 > 0:14:03The selection process was ill-conceived, the definition
0:14:03 > 0:14:07of the criteria for vetting were not there.
0:14:07 > 0:14:10Nothing was properly done in this process.
0:14:10 > 0:14:11It was so disappointing.
0:14:11 > 0:14:15Do you not take any responsibility on the part of the Free Syrian Army,
0:14:15 > 0:14:18the moderate various different groupings of locally-based forces
0:14:18 > 0:14:21whom you claim to be associated with?
0:14:21 > 0:14:23They failed.
0:14:23 > 0:14:27There is an incoherence to the so-called moderation
0:14:27 > 0:14:29opposition which has hamstrung your movement
0:14:29 > 0:14:30from the very beginning.
0:14:30 > 0:14:33The groups were really determined to fight,
0:14:33 > 0:14:35and they continue to be determined to fight,
0:14:35 > 0:14:38but they were left for a very long time with no alternative.
0:14:38 > 0:14:41The money was going to groups which were radical.
0:14:41 > 0:14:45When they still wanted to fight, they found money and arms in groups
0:14:45 > 0:14:50that were radical.
0:14:50 > 0:14:52This was the alternative.
0:14:52 > 0:14:54Now, today what we are desperately seeking to create is
0:14:54 > 0:14:55an alternative to that.
0:14:55 > 0:14:58The military alternative, the funding that should have come
0:14:58 > 0:15:00from outside from the democratic countries, did not happen.
0:15:00 > 0:15:02Can we create it politically?
0:15:02 > 0:15:05Can we get these groups to commit to a political process and therefore
0:15:05 > 0:15:08in a cessation of hostilities context, we will see
0:15:08 > 0:15:13them re-emerge immediately?
0:15:13 > 0:15:15It is too late.
0:15:15 > 0:15:17It's too late.
0:15:17 > 0:15:18That is the tragedy of your situation.
0:15:18 > 0:15:20It is simply too late.
0:15:20 > 0:15:23Look at the words very recently of the former US Defence Secretary,
0:15:23 > 0:15:29Chuck Hagel, who says looking back, "Our big mistake was to say,
0:15:29 > 0:15:32'Assad must go.' That was plain wrong."
0:15:32 > 0:15:38We now, from Libya to Syria to even Egypt and obviously Iraq,
0:15:38 > 0:15:40can say that when we remove the authoritarian, remove
0:15:40 > 0:15:43the dictator, the chaos that follows is actually often worse
0:15:43 > 0:15:46for our national interest.
0:15:46 > 0:15:49So the Americans frankly now look at the situation in Syria and it
0:15:49 > 0:15:55seems they are prepared to walk away and leave the Russians to support
0:15:55 > 0:16:02Assad, and allow Assad to expand his area of operation.
0:16:02 > 0:16:06Mr Chuck Hagel resigned because he disagreed with Obama's
0:16:06 > 0:16:10policy, and because he was not given the means to implement a serious
0:16:10 > 0:16:12policy that would have had some effect.
0:16:12 > 0:16:17Now, I think there is a temptation in Washington to leave the situation
0:16:17 > 0:16:21to Russia, but what is happening, in fact, and what we are seeing
0:16:21 > 0:16:26between yesterday and today, is that the countries in the region
0:16:26 > 0:16:31consider that the vital interests are under threat,
0:16:31 > 0:16:37and they are seeing that the United States is not
0:16:37 > 0:16:38willing to mobilise to defend their interests.
0:16:38 > 0:16:41It's Turkey, but also all of the Gulf countries who see
0:16:41 > 0:16:44that if this is left to Russia, Russia will leave Iran,
0:16:44 > 0:16:49take positions there, and saying what happened in Iraq
0:16:49 > 0:16:52happened once - it will not happen a second time in Syria.
0:16:52 > 0:16:55So you are pinning your hopes now on the Turks, the Saudis
0:16:55 > 0:16:56and the Gulf states?
0:16:56 > 0:16:59The Turks and Saudis are mobilising now.
0:16:59 > 0:17:02Are they really?
0:17:02 > 0:17:05The Saudis and UAE say they are prepared to commit men
0:17:05 > 0:17:06on the ground inside Syria.
0:17:06 > 0:17:08They said that a few days ago.
0:17:08 > 0:17:10Absolutely no sign they really mean it.
0:17:10 > 0:17:12They may or may not.
0:17:12 > 0:17:16The point here is are we only going to believe it when guns go up
0:17:16 > 0:17:19and start blowing?
0:17:19 > 0:17:21When bombs start blowing?
0:17:21 > 0:17:27Is this what diplomacy is about?
0:17:27 > 0:17:29These countries are saying to the United States and the world,
0:17:29 > 0:17:31our vital interests are in danger.
0:17:31 > 0:17:33The risks for this region are huge, considerable.
0:17:33 > 0:17:36So they are sounding the alarm bell.
0:17:36 > 0:17:40If no-one is going to hear that alarm bell and only say,
0:17:40 > 0:17:44"Well, they're bluffing, they're not going to send their troops in,"
0:17:44 > 0:17:47fine, they may not send their troops, because they may
0:17:47 > 0:17:48decide it is not worth it.
0:17:48 > 0:17:54Definitely not 'worth it', but that it is too risky to do so.
0:17:54 > 0:17:58The fact remains that they are unhappy with the situation.
0:17:58 > 0:18:01Just to be clear about what you want, because it's
0:18:01 > 0:18:02important to nail this down.
0:18:02 > 0:18:04We've heard Prime Minister Davutoglu of Turkey make some very grave
0:18:04 > 0:18:09warnings, or even threats, to the Russians, suggesting
0:18:09 > 0:18:15that the Turks may well take serious action in northern Syria.
0:18:15 > 0:18:22Are you saying you want to see Turkish troops
0:18:22 > 0:18:25I don't hope that we go that far. to see Turkish troops
0:18:25 > 0:18:28What I hope happens is that we do get a cessation
0:18:28 > 0:18:32of bombings by Russia.
0:18:32 > 0:18:35We had an agreement signed in Munich three days ago,
0:18:35 > 0:18:38and all of the parties were saying, "It is not going to be implemented,"
0:18:38 > 0:18:41because in fact it is Russia who sets the pace of implementation.
0:18:41 > 0:18:45It is Russia who decides it is not today, it is too early.
0:18:45 > 0:18:48Russia has a clause which allows it to keep striking at quote/unquote
0:18:48 > 0:18:51"terrorist targets" even if there is a cessation of hostilities.
0:18:51 > 0:18:54Yes, and Mr Kerry goes out and says, "But you are targeting
0:18:54 > 0:18:57the legitimate opposition".
0:18:57 > 0:19:01And Russia continues to ignore it.
0:19:01 > 0:19:04So who is going to stop Russia and Iran from controlling
0:19:04 > 0:19:07a situation which will push Syria, which first of all is
0:19:08 > 0:19:11going to break...
0:19:11 > 0:19:13The simple answer to your rhetorical question is no-one,
0:19:13 > 0:19:15because the Russians have made a massive military commitment
0:19:15 > 0:19:21alongside the Iranians, which the Europeans and Americans
0:19:21 > 0:19:24are not prepared to counter or to match.
0:19:24 > 0:19:26So the reality of today, the real politic of today,
0:19:26 > 0:19:30is that your side has lost.
0:19:30 > 0:19:40I believe that if this is the conclusion that the Western
0:19:40 > 0:19:42countries have reached, then it is decades of refugees,
0:19:42 > 0:19:45and I'm afraid some terror attacks, inside Europe.
0:19:45 > 0:19:48These are the vital interests of the West and of Europe,
0:19:48 > 0:19:53even more than the United States, that are at stake.
0:19:53 > 0:19:58If there is no wake-up here to the situation
0:19:58 > 0:20:01and the gravity of the situation and implications of leaving
0:20:01 > 0:20:04the place to Assad and Daesh, because this is what is happening
0:20:04 > 0:20:06now with Russian policy, it is bombing everybody
0:20:06 > 0:20:08on the ground.
0:20:08 > 0:20:11Civilians, children, throughout everybody
0:20:11 > 0:20:14out there indiscriminately.
0:20:14 > 0:20:15What does that produce?
0:20:15 > 0:20:19It produces Daesh and the regime.
0:20:19 > 0:20:22It is a terrible thing to say, but maybe in the end,
0:20:22 > 0:20:29the suffering we see today is a precursor to the end
0:20:29 > 0:20:33of the war, an end of the war which brings some sort of victory
0:20:33 > 0:20:35to Assad in the areas he really cares about,
0:20:35 > 0:20:37and leaves Islamic State to be dealt with later,
0:20:37 > 0:20:40maybe, by the international coalition of forces.
0:20:40 > 0:20:46But the point surely is about the end of the day-to-day warfare.
0:20:46 > 0:20:48With all respect you in the moderate Syrian opposition, you don't
0:20:49 > 0:20:50live inside Syria.
0:20:50 > 0:20:53Those Syrians left inside the country surely want an end
0:20:53 > 0:20:59to the war and the bombing more than anything else?
0:20:59 > 0:21:00We all agree.
0:21:00 > 0:21:02That is what we would like to see, believe me.
0:21:02 > 0:21:04The moderate opposition, inside or outside,
0:21:04 > 0:21:06is on the same page.
0:21:06 > 0:21:10We want an end to this conflict.
0:21:10 > 0:21:13Maybe the only person who can end the conflict at least
0:21:13 > 0:21:16in the medium-term is President Assad backed
0:21:16 > 0:21:18by the Russians and Iranians.
0:21:18 > 0:21:22It may not be pretty, it may be in your view horrible,
0:21:22 > 0:21:26but it might lead to the quickest end of this terrible war.
0:21:26 > 0:21:29OK, let's take this rationale and apply it over
0:21:29 > 0:21:33the last five years.
0:21:33 > 0:21:37We've had a wake-up of the social fabric of Syria.
0:21:37 > 0:21:42We have had a collapsing of institutions of the state.
0:21:42 > 0:21:47We have had an army that is now entirely controlled by one
0:21:47 > 0:21:52community, which is going after another large community in Syria.
0:21:52 > 0:21:55We are now seeing the break-up of the country because Assad
0:21:55 > 0:21:58is willing to let go of a piece of the territory that goes
0:21:58 > 0:22:04to the a Kurdish secessionist programme.
0:22:04 > 0:22:06What does that tell us about Assad?
0:22:06 > 0:22:09It tells us he is simply bringing this country,
0:22:09 > 0:22:13burying this country, and the best way to salvage
0:22:13 > 0:22:19the institutions, the society, and the army of a country that can
0:22:19 > 0:22:22restart its army and its national army, is to get rid of him
0:22:22 > 0:22:24as quickly as possible.
0:22:24 > 0:22:29Is that really the lesson of Libya and Iraq?
0:22:29 > 0:22:30Oh, definitely.
0:22:30 > 0:22:31Really?
0:22:31 > 0:22:36Now, the best thing for Syria would be for Assad and his regime
0:22:36 > 0:22:37to be toppled?
0:22:37 > 0:22:40What kind of chaos would follow?
0:22:40 > 0:22:41We don't want chaos.
0:22:41 > 0:22:46We care for the stability more than any country outside Syria.
0:22:46 > 0:22:49We Syrians want stability before anything else.
0:22:49 > 0:22:52But he is creating instability every single day.
0:22:52 > 0:22:54What we need to see, is the moment we are promised
0:22:54 > 0:22:57that there is a serious transition of this country,
0:22:57 > 0:22:59Assad cannot be part of that.
0:22:59 > 0:23:01He is a criminal.
0:23:01 > 0:23:05We know that.
0:23:05 > 0:23:07Even if nobody is allowing us to take him to court,
0:23:07 > 0:23:09we know and everybody knows he is a criminal.
0:23:09 > 0:23:11So we need that transition.
0:23:11 > 0:23:14Once we have that political horizon, that political promise,
0:23:14 > 0:23:17then you will see immediately guns turn against Daesh from both sides.
0:23:17 > 0:23:19From the Free Syrian Army as well as the national army.
0:23:19 > 0:23:23Those who defected from the army continue to believe this
0:23:23 > 0:23:26is their army, and it has been confiscated by the regime.
0:23:26 > 0:23:32They want a national army and would want to merge
0:23:32 > 0:23:35with the national army in order to fight Daesh.
0:23:35 > 0:23:38That is the only way to create an indigenous force on the ground
0:23:38 > 0:23:39to fight Daesh.
0:23:39 > 0:23:42In the end, Daesh, Islamic State, is what the West is most preoccupied
0:23:42 > 0:23:44about.
0:23:44 > 0:23:46You are visiting London and talking to politicians in the West.
0:23:46 > 0:23:51Surely you know now their priority is no longer getting rid of Assad,
0:23:51 > 0:23:54it is taking on Daesh, and they may believe keeping Assad
0:23:54 > 0:23:59there in the long run is better for their campaign against IS-Daesh.
0:23:59 > 0:24:06We believe it is one objective - Assad and Daesh need to be ended.
0:24:06 > 0:24:09That is how one needs to proceed, otherwise we are going to keep both.
0:24:09 > 0:24:12Bassma Kodmani, we have to end there.
0:24:12 > 0:24:14Thank you for being on HARDtalk.
0:24:14 > 0:24:24Thank you.