:00:07. > :00:11.Welcome to HARDtalk with me, Stephen Sackur.
:00:12. > :00:14.I'm in Washington DC to talk to a former chairman of the Republican
:00:15. > :00:18.With every passing week the race for the Republican Party's
:00:19. > :00:20.presidential nomination becomes more bizarre and increasingly bitter.
:00:21. > :00:22.According to one Republican senator the fact that Donald Trump and
:00:23. > :00:25.Ted Cruz are the two leading candidates is proof
:00:26. > :01:01.What is happening to the Republicans?
:01:02. > :01:08.Haley Barbour, welcome to HARDtalk. Thank you. You have spent all of
:01:09. > :01:13.your addled life inside the Republican Party, can you remember
:01:14. > :01:19.your party ever being in as big of a mess as it is in right now -- adult?
:01:20. > :01:27.No wind I have been doing it since 1968, I read Oh! -- I dropped out of
:01:28. > :01:30.college and worked for Richard Nixon and I have been involved in every
:01:31. > :01:35.presidential campaign since then and I have never seen anything like
:01:36. > :01:38.this. How did it happen? How did it get to a point where Donald Trump
:01:39. > :01:42.who is the front-runner of the Republican Party is disapproved of
:01:43. > :01:47.by 77% of the American people and to the most immediate challenge or, Ted
:01:48. > :01:53.Cruz, has a disapproval rating of 60% -- challenger? Hillary Clinton
:01:54. > :01:57.has a disapproval rating of the majority of Americans as well and it
:01:58. > :02:02.is because most Americans are mad and many of them are scared. They
:02:03. > :02:05.are mad on a bipartisan basis. If you look at polling, there is a
:02:06. > :02:12.typical question of polling in the United States, asking whether the
:02:13. > :02:16.country is going in the right direction or the wrong direction and
:02:17. > :02:20.64% over the past few years have said it is going the wrong
:02:21. > :02:25.direction. That is the average today. Only about 30% of Americans
:02:26. > :02:28.are Republicans, so it is not just Republicans, it is independents and
:02:29. > :02:33.Democrats and it is based on conditions in the country. This is
:02:34. > :02:39.the weakest recovery since World War Two. The more you talk about the
:02:40. > :02:43.alienation, the anger and the economic underperformance, the more
:02:44. > :02:47.I am thinking, if after eight years of an incumbent Democrat, the
:02:48. > :02:51.Republican Party must have their moment of golden opportunity, so how
:02:52. > :02:58.come your two leading candidates, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz seem to be
:02:59. > :03:02.so toxic to so many Americans? To quote Senator Lindsey Graham who I
:03:03. > :03:09.am sure you know pretty well, he says, forgive my language here, he
:03:10. > :03:16.says the party has gone bad ship crazy -- batshit. An old friend of
:03:17. > :03:19.mine said he can't make heads or tails of this but it looks like
:03:20. > :03:22.every time he turned on the television, all he saw were the
:03:23. > :03:31.tales. That is many Americans are saying today -- that is what. Why is
:03:32. > :03:39.that? Naughton the people who are advancing set themselves up as
:03:40. > :03:44.outsiders and conservative media has become much more involved in the
:03:45. > :03:54.campaigns and in political process. There has been a divide established,
:03:55. > :03:56.conservatives tend to watch conservative news. Normally you
:03:57. > :04:02.would think those conservative outlets would be attacking the
:04:03. > :04:06.Democrats for bad performance but instead they are saying the
:04:07. > :04:11.Republicans sold out, the Republicans surrendered. That is
:04:12. > :04:16.exactly what they are saying. And may I say, you represent that party
:04:17. > :04:20.establishment. You were a 2-term governor in Mississippi, you were
:04:21. > :04:24.chair of the Republican national committee, if I may put it this way,
:04:25. > :04:29.you are one of the big beasts of your party and it is precisely you
:04:30. > :04:39.and your ilk that Donald Trump and Ted Cruz have the -- say have
:04:40. > :04:43.betrayed the Republican Party. I don't take the blame for what
:04:44. > :04:47.Congress does or doesn't do. In the 90s you ran the party for a while,
:04:48. > :04:53.you were the chairman. That's right and we won the first Republican
:04:54. > :04:58.majority in 40 years. But your point, many Republican governors are
:04:59. > :05:02.very popular. Republicans in state governor have huge job approval. It
:05:03. > :05:06.is Washington. And one of the reasons they have such low approval
:05:07. > :05:10.appear is because the conservative media, much less than the liberal
:05:11. > :05:18.media, doesn't say the Republican has passed 300 bills in the last
:05:19. > :05:23.amount of time or that it takes 60 votes to get a bill to the floor of
:05:24. > :05:29.the Senate and there are only 54 Republicans. There was a time when
:05:30. > :05:32.conservative publications, of which there were few when I was starting
:05:33. > :05:40.the business, would write, the Republicans are doing their dog Oh!
:05:41. > :05:46.-- job, but they are being stopped in their tracks by Democrats. Today
:05:47. > :05:53.it is that the Republicans are not trying hard enough. But they don't
:05:54. > :05:57.have the votes. You worked for Ronald Reagan for a while and he
:05:58. > :06:01.successfully reached out to the blue-collar, working-class
:06:02. > :06:05.Americans. Many of them Democrats. And he wrought them into the
:06:06. > :06:11.so-called Reagan coalition but ever since the Republican Party appears
:06:12. > :06:15.to have failed to reach out to ordinary working and white Americans
:06:16. > :06:19.as well as minorities -- brought. And the one thing Donald Trump
:06:20. > :06:24.appears to be able to do is to tap into the white working-class.
:06:25. > :06:29.Unquestionably, that has been something that he has done and it is
:06:30. > :06:33.a positive for the party. It is positive but it is not dispositive
:06:34. > :06:37.because while we are adding some people, and that is good, there are
:06:38. > :06:44.many people who are very concerned about Donald Trump for various
:06:45. > :06:51.reasons. He's 12 points behind Clinton, many think he cannot win
:06:52. > :06:55.and something he may cost us the Senate but the other big thing is,
:06:56. > :06:59.what will he do? He is not well-known to Republicans at the
:07:00. > :07:05.grassroots level. Proposals are all over the lot. He's not like Ronald
:07:06. > :07:09.Reagan. I will tell you something about Ronald Reagan, who I did work
:07:10. > :07:11.for. He was hugely successful because he knew how to compromise
:07:12. > :07:17.with the Democrats and get things done. That is why five out of seven
:07:18. > :07:24.elections have been won following Ronald Reagan by Republicans.
:07:25. > :07:27.Because they got things done. But that is the dealmaking compromise
:07:28. > :07:36.based politics that people like Ted Cruz say is that the trail -- a
:07:37. > :07:43.betrayal of everything that Republicans should stand for. But
:07:44. > :07:52.those candidates... Virtually every other candidate wants to be like
:07:53. > :07:58.Ronald Reagan. And bring forward his economic plan and the tax reform.
:07:59. > :08:02.They were all passed when we had big Democrat majorities in house and
:08:03. > :08:06.Ronald Reagan knew how to get done. The biggest anger in our party
:08:07. > :08:12.today, the biggest contention is not over policy but over tactics. That
:08:13. > :08:18.is what Ted Cruz has complained about. Remember he led the shutdown
:08:19. > :08:24.of the government in 2013 which cost us the Virginia's governors race. We
:08:25. > :08:27.would have won but it came right in the aftermath of the government
:08:28. > :08:32.shutdown. Republicans don't like to shop the government down because
:08:33. > :08:36.there are all kind of Republicans who understand that the government
:08:37. > :08:41.has some functions that are necessary. This is what Ted Cruz
:08:42. > :08:45.says about you. He says, the big businesses and lobbyists to get in
:08:46. > :08:49.bed with career politicians do nothing but grow government and who
:08:50. > :08:53.is left off that list? At the American taxpayer. You are the
:08:54. > :08:58.archetypal politician turned lobbyist and Ted Cruz and his like
:08:59. > :09:03.have had enough of you. Actually Stephen, I was a lobbyist turned
:09:04. > :09:07.politician, just so you can get the chronology right. You made a lot of
:09:08. > :09:10.money by lobbying and you have had a long political career as well but
:09:11. > :09:15.the point is, you're kind of politics is not the kind of politics
:09:16. > :09:21.that fires up the Republican base today. What the Republican base
:09:22. > :09:25.wants is a performance toward success and they haven't got it from
:09:26. > :09:30.this administration. They don't want a guy which represents the
:09:31. > :09:34.Washington political machine and that is you. Donald Trump and Ted
:09:35. > :09:40.Cruz are outsiders and you are the insiders. And insiders have had
:09:41. > :09:49.their day it seems. Ted Cruz is anything but an outsider. Donald
:09:50. > :09:52.Trump is also anything but. He talks about how he has given money to
:09:53. > :10:02.politicians constantly and I think all of that is made up. He says he's
:10:03. > :10:07.contributed to the Republican Governors Association but they have
:10:08. > :10:12.never ask for anything. I have not seen that side of Donald Trump but
:10:13. > :10:19.let's not act like he has not been a part of the way Everman works in New
:10:20. > :10:22.Jersey or New York or Washington, DC -- government. If he wins the
:10:23. > :10:27.nomination, will be back in and support him and work for him?
:10:28. > :10:32.Whoever the Republicans nominate I will support. If it is Donald Trump,
:10:33. > :10:38.no matter who it is, I will support them. Really? Absolutely. Any one of
:10:39. > :10:41.our candidates would be better than Obama having a third term under the
:10:42. > :10:46.auspices of Hillary Clinton. Even if you agree with Senator Lindsey
:10:47. > :10:51.Graham who says that Donald Trump is a race baiting xenophobic bigot who
:10:52. > :10:55.would be an absolute disaster for our party and would destroy
:10:56. > :11:00.conservativism as we know it and we would get wiped out. You would still
:11:01. > :11:05.support that? Let me make a point. I don't agree with Lindsey Graham on
:11:06. > :11:08.all of that. I don't want you to misinterpret my answer. You support
:11:09. > :11:13.building a wall to Mexico in making Mexicans pay for it and banning all
:11:14. > :11:18.Muslims coming into the country? That isn't what you said Lindsey
:11:19. > :11:23.Graham said. What he said was... I don't agree with Lindsey Graham on
:11:24. > :11:26.that. He said Donald Trump with a race baiting xenophobic bigot and he
:11:27. > :11:29.is of course alluding to the policies which include building a
:11:30. > :11:33.wall with Mexico and making the Mexicans pay for it. And we know how
:11:34. > :11:37.he described the Mexicans are coming to the United States. He also said
:11:38. > :11:40.he was going to ban Muslims from travelling to the United States of
:11:41. > :11:45.America. That is what Lindsey Graham was alluding to. Do you support
:11:46. > :11:49.those policies? I am for immigration reform but because I think we need
:11:50. > :11:52.to get back to the legal immigration and put a stop to illegal
:11:53. > :11:57.immigration and I think most Republicans agree with me on that.
:11:58. > :12:02.They don't go out and yell about building a wall or whatever. But we
:12:03. > :12:06.have to secure the border. We also have to have a good legal
:12:07. > :12:10.immigration system. But I want to go back to the question you asked me
:12:11. > :12:13.which triggered all of this. Why would I support Donald Trump?
:12:14. > :12:17.Because life is a series of choices and get the choice is Donald Trump
:12:18. > :12:21.or Hillary Clinton, I will go for Donald Trump. Let's talk about other
:12:22. > :12:26.things he has said. He has said he is sick of America bankrolling and
:12:27. > :12:30.supporting Nato. He says it would be OK for Japan and South Korea to get
:12:31. > :12:33.their own nuclear weapons and maybe even Saudi Arabia as well. He is
:12:34. > :12:37.talking about fundamentally changing America's position in the world. I
:12:38. > :12:40.don't know whether you agree with those positions but if you don't,
:12:41. > :12:44.you are still saying he would support him because he is better
:12:45. > :12:51.than Hillary Clinton? As you say, who would you rather elect, a
:12:52. > :12:55.Republican or a Democratic nominee? It is not like some countries in the
:12:56. > :12:59.world where they have multiparty systems. One of the two of them is
:13:00. > :13:05.going to win and of the two, I think the country is in better hands, is
:13:06. > :13:09.safer, will make more progress if the Republican nominee wins over
:13:10. > :13:15.this is Clinton. Are you aware of how Donald Trump is seen around the
:13:16. > :13:19.rest of the world? I want to quote you a quote from Martin Woolford was
:13:20. > :13:23.respected economist for the Financial Times. He says the US is
:13:24. > :13:27.the greatest Republic syndrome, The Bastion democracy and the guarantor
:13:28. > :13:31.of liberal world order. It would be a global disaster if Donald Trump
:13:32. > :13:35.were to become president. That is the way many people around the world
:13:36. > :13:39.feel about what we are watching right now in this country. After
:13:40. > :13:42.watching the last eight years and what has happened to America's
:13:43. > :13:47.standing in the world, they should be worried that the standard is
:13:48. > :13:51.going to keep going in the wrong direction because it has sure been
:13:52. > :13:57.going the wrong direction the last eight years. I think a lot of what
:13:58. > :14:01.Donald Trump is saying is hyperbole and I remembered his book how he
:14:02. > :14:05.talked about how that can get you a long way but at the end of the day
:14:06. > :14:08.you have to be able to close the deal with substance. A lot of the
:14:09. > :14:14.hyperbole I think is way off the mark. But I will support him or
:14:15. > :14:19.whoever wins our nomination against a third term for Obama and failed
:14:20. > :14:23.policies. You have made that pretty clear so let's get to the detail of
:14:24. > :14:26.how this is going to unfold over the next few months. Nobody knows the
:14:27. > :14:29.Republican Party and its processes better than you do and we are
:14:30. > :14:35.looking at a convention in Cleveland in July where it may well be, given
:14:36. > :14:41.the way the vote count is going, that Donald Trump has not crossed
:14:42. > :14:45.the threshold and got those 1237 delegates signed up and pledged that
:14:46. > :14:50.he needs to get the nomination on the first vote. If he is not there,
:14:51. > :14:53.it will go to a second vote when many of those delegates become so
:14:54. > :14:57.called unbound, no longer tied to the guy they promised they would
:14:58. > :15:01.vote for in the first round. Can you see a scenario where Donald Trump
:15:02. > :15:06.has won the popular vote around the nation in the Republican primaries
:15:07. > :15:11.by two or 3 million votes and yet is deprived of the nomination?
:15:12. > :15:18.I worked for Ronald Reagan and in 19 semi six 1 million more votes and
:15:19. > :15:22.Gerald Ford in the primaries but Gerald Ford got the majority and he
:15:23. > :15:26.was a nominee for president and Ronald Reagan never whined or
:15:27. > :15:31.complained, and he never threatened to start riots. He knew what the
:15:32. > :15:34.rules when Andy play by the rules. The rules is that it takes the
:15:35. > :15:41.majority of the delegates to win the nomination. Period. Not the most.
:15:42. > :15:52.With all due respect, it has very little to do with Chrissy. Once you
:15:53. > :15:56.see... Well he calls it dirty and discussing politics when people try
:15:57. > :15:59.to persuade delegates to cross eyed and vote for someone who they were
:16:00. > :16:04.pledged to in the first place. It is not look like democracy because it
:16:05. > :16:08.looks like rye bread because they can free food and accommodation,
:16:09. > :16:16.they get goody bags and all sorts of things come into play. Just remember
:16:17. > :16:25.that delegates who were elected by state law, state structure are bound
:16:26. > :16:29.to vote for a candidate. They are required by the rules to vote for
:16:30. > :16:34.that candidate. In the first round. It depends on the state party.
:16:35. > :16:39.Florida is three rounds and most of them are one round. The rules
:16:40. > :16:43.suggest that if it comes to a third or fourth round vote it will get
:16:44. > :16:46.very dirty. Donald Trump is said if he doesn't get the nomination with
:16:47. > :16:52.the biggest number of votes he has spoken about riots and it is going
:16:53. > :17:00.to be bad, real bad. How worried are you about the chaos that could
:17:01. > :17:07.engulf your party? First of all, I think Donald Trump, or at least his
:17:08. > :17:12.team knows that that hurts him in winning people support. That does
:17:13. > :17:15.not help. To try to threaten and break the law. In the way that he
:17:16. > :17:22.has been treated in some of these events to be saying that after the
:17:23. > :17:30.way he has been treated, to me, is all the more unusual. Let me just
:17:31. > :17:33.say. In our party we have a variety of systems for electing delegates
:17:34. > :17:38.because we are the party that believes in the 10th Amendment state
:17:39. > :17:41.authority that the states get to make their rules and the National
:17:42. > :17:46.Party and enforce the state 's rules. I can understand if I was
:17:47. > :17:50.sitting in some way in the UK today, watching the Republican or
:17:51. > :17:55.Democratic nomination for president, I would think that this is the
:17:56. > :18:01.craziest and wildest thing. Remember, it has been four years
:18:02. > :18:07.since either party that has had a conviction that might go to a second
:18:08. > :18:12.ballot. It has been 60 years since we went to a second ballot. Nobody
:18:13. > :18:16.has done this. I've been doing this for 48 years and no one has seen a
:18:17. > :18:22.second ballot. We're probably going to see this this time around. I want
:18:23. > :18:25.to pin down with a fee you personally it would be a bigger
:18:26. > :18:32.problem for the party to go into the general election with Donald Trump
:18:33. > :18:39.or Ted Cruz? We haven't spoken a lot about Ted Cruz but there is no more
:18:40. > :18:43.unpopular Republican Senate at his own peers in the Republican Party
:18:44. > :18:49.then Ted Cruz. It is like picking your poison and which one would you
:18:50. > :18:54.pick? The big issue is that Ted Cruz is also behind Hillary Clinton in
:18:55. > :19:00.the poll. Party leaders whether they are the Washington establishment and
:19:01. > :19:07.I understand that who you don't like it who you vote for. You were the
:19:08. > :19:14.Washington establishment. The establishment is very slim. Is being
:19:15. > :19:24.a while since you made your money in Yahoo! City. You obviously care
:19:25. > :19:30.about your party and you thought about Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. Can
:19:31. > :19:34.you imagine a scenario where a third candidate, and you can visit, comes
:19:35. > :19:42.into the arena at the convention and actually gets the nomination? Things
:19:43. > :19:48.should happen before. .Com could get to 1237. If he does not it becomes
:19:49. > :19:53.three hard to him to stay up as high as he was. I think it probably goes
:19:54. > :19:57.down on the second ballot because they have not had a strong ground
:19:58. > :20:02.game and they have not worked hard about who got elected the delegates.
:20:03. > :20:09.Ted Cruz finishes second on the bow at and I think he might rise. But I
:20:10. > :20:14.don't think he will get to 1237. Could be the guy who finishes third
:20:15. > :20:22.or fourth or could be someone who has not run a full? Paul Ryan... I
:20:23. > :20:26.think he has made it very clear that he is not a candidate. Every one of
:20:27. > :20:32.those scenarios is at that scenario the Republican. Number one has 70%
:20:33. > :20:39.disapproval monthly American people. Number two is just not as
:20:40. > :20:45.well-known and has very high negatives for people who know him
:20:46. > :20:54.best. Number three, the guy who finishes third or fourth. Number
:20:55. > :20:58.four. What you are telling me is that your party is doomed. No, I'm
:20:59. > :21:05.not telling you that. We're not going to have a bump. The likelihood
:21:06. > :21:10.is that we will have a dip. But I remember 1976 when Ford was behind
:21:11. > :21:15.33 points and a week of the convention was over. A lot of Ronald
:21:16. > :21:22.Reagan supporters said they will not vote for him because their feelings
:21:23. > :21:25.were hurt. By up most of them were back helping Ford because they did
:21:26. > :21:30.not want Jimmy Carter. And let me tell you that Jimmy Carter was a
:21:31. > :21:35.walk in the park compared to Hillary Clinton in the eyes of Republican
:21:36. > :21:38.supporters. Thank goodness our convention is in July and will take
:21:39. > :21:43.so few weeks first to get over it when people start coming home.
:21:44. > :21:48.Gerald Ford lost by two points. Down 33 with a disastrous convention and
:21:49. > :21:52.lost by two points. I have not forgotten that and there is a lesson
:21:53. > :22:01.there. If you give me one name who is going to be the public and
:22:02. > :22:11.presidential nominee, who would be? I want a name. I respect you too
:22:12. > :22:15.much to lie to you. We've dug away the process and it is got to be,
:22:16. > :22:20.located and it is going to be ugly between now and July but surely
:22:21. > :22:26.there is a much bigger problem with all the mess of a presidential
:22:27. > :22:28.campaign. And that is this, increasingly your party looks
:22:29. > :22:35.completely out of touch with the way America is today. One fact that a
:22:36. > :22:39.majority of kids under the age of five years old in America today I'm
:22:40. > :22:43.nonwhite, but you look at the Republican Party and who they really
:22:44. > :23:00.speak to and for and it seems to be mostly male, mostly white, most
:23:01. > :23:07.rural and that certainly looks to be that way. That is the way Democrats
:23:08. > :23:12.picture at. Republicans think results determine election. Do
:23:13. > :23:17.Republicans it to work harder like Chris Christie did and get 51% of
:23:18. > :23:24.the Hispanic vote or Mitt Romney the year before had got 27? Definitely.
:23:25. > :23:28.You have to get your hands steady and do some things and is not all
:23:29. > :23:33.red rec and hyperbole. Or Ronald Reagan who was a great Conservative
:23:34. > :23:36.and flew on bold colours. He would be spinning in his grave if he saw
:23:37. > :23:42.what was happening in your party today. He really would because one
:23:43. > :23:52.of the things he would never do it he would never disrespect people he
:23:53. > :23:55.disagreed with. He understood that there are people who vote for me
:23:56. > :23:59.every time with me who disagree with me on staff, so you have to remind
:24:00. > :24:08.yourself that the person who disagrees with you 20% time is not
:24:09. > :24:14.80% a traitor. Purity is the enemy of the victory. We're going to end
:24:15. > :24:21.it here. Becky very much for being on HARDtalk -- thank you. Thank you
:24:22. > :24:43.Stephen. If you were lucky enough to have
:24:44. > :24:46.spring sunshine yesterday, you probably got some spring warmth
:24:47. > :24:48.as well. In fact, it was beautiful -
:24:49. > :24:52.warmest day of the year