:00:00. > :00:08.in New York, people go to the polls. Donald Trump is expected to win,
:00:09. > :00:12.despite confusing 9/11 with a well known convenience store. Time now
:00:13. > :00:25.for Hoddle. Welcome to HARDtalk. I am Stephen
:00:26. > :00:32.Sackur. The battle is on. Economic arguments are the most potent
:00:33. > :00:37.weapon. Brexit, they claim, will come at a crippling cost in terms of
:00:38. > :00:43.jobs, investment and growth. Many business leaders seem to agree, but
:00:44. > :00:50.by no means all. My guess is Tim Martin, the founder of the JD
:00:51. > :01:16.Wetherspoon chain. Could Brexit make economic sense?
:01:17. > :01:25.Tim Martin, welcome to HARDtalk. Thank you very much. The Prime
:01:26. > :01:28.Minister David Cameron and his team seems to have decided the economy
:01:29. > :01:37.will be the main battle ground for the battle for the argument over
:01:38. > :01:42.Europe. They believe they have strong arguments on their side. You
:01:43. > :01:47.are a businessman, you have to accept they are right, don't you?
:01:48. > :01:53.Definitely not. They are completely wrong. Everyone knows or should know
:01:54. > :01:59.that democracy equals prosperity and freedom. You can see that throughout
:02:00. > :02:03.the world. West Germany, far more successful than east Germany. South
:02:04. > :02:15.Korea far more successful than North Korea. A really good example to chew
:02:16. > :02:23.on is why North America, same resources, it is more successful
:02:24. > :02:27.than south America. The reason, I think, is because of the high level
:02:28. > :02:34.of democracy. A constitution put together a couple of hundred of
:02:35. > :02:43.years ago by the founding fathers. You did not get that in South
:02:44. > :02:47.America. In Europe, the overriding issue is democracy is slowly being
:02:48. > :02:52.taken away. I am going to stop you there... Just look at Greece. They
:02:53. > :02:58.no longer have control over their interest rates or budget. Look at
:02:59. > :03:04.Portugal, Spain. Italy has had no growth since the euro started. It is
:03:05. > :03:11.an emerging catastrophe. You can cut that argument about what is
:03:12. > :03:16.happening in Europe different ways. Let me step back a little bit. You
:03:17. > :03:22.chose to answer by not addressing economic arguments, but by saying it
:03:23. > :03:27.is about democracy. It is an economic argument. Let us look at
:03:28. > :03:31.what the Prime Minister and his team are saying. They'd just issued a
:03:32. > :03:36.report in the Treasury in London which looked at the impact of
:03:37. > :03:41.leaving the European Union in terms of Britain's trade, growth
:03:42. > :03:46.potential, jobs, over the next 15 years. And to quote the Prime
:03:47. > :03:49.Minister, the conclusion was that leaving the European Union would
:03:50. > :03:57.leave Britain significantly and long-term poorer. It is an exercise
:03:58. > :04:03.in deception. The Chancellor has used his great office, which carries
:04:04. > :04:08.a lot of kudos and power and prestige to produce a highly
:04:09. > :04:14.misleading statement. One of the things he said which hit the
:04:15. > :04:20.headlines in the press is that, and he back to top by saying he was
:04:21. > :04:24.supported in terms by the Bank of England, is that mortgage rates for
:04:25. > :04:30.individual householders would go up if Brexit occurred and that is
:04:31. > :04:39.because the pound would come under pressure as a result of inflation
:04:40. > :04:43.going up and when inflation goes up, interest rates and mortgages go up.
:04:44. > :04:49.That is what he said. He is trying to influence the householders of
:04:50. > :04:58.Britain. When this happened in 2009 at the interest rates went down.
:04:59. > :05:04.Anyone who predicts interest rates over 15 years is in a mark-up is
:05:05. > :05:08.back again. What Osborne is focused on and what you must focus on in
:05:09. > :05:14.your vote leave campaign, Osborne is focused on the pact on trade,
:05:15. > :05:25.regarding leaving the European single market. He is not singled on
:05:26. > :05:32.-- he is not focusing on that. Yes he is. It goes through establishing
:05:33. > :05:44.a new trading relationship. It could be the Norwegian model. They have
:05:45. > :05:53.signed up and they have two pay in, even though they are not a member.
:05:54. > :05:58.You are saying no one can tell what interest rates will be over 15
:05:59. > :06:05.years, but they can tell by looking at Norway how the British economy is
:06:06. > :06:10.going to be worse off? That is the best case. The other case is you
:06:11. > :06:18.accept a bilateral trade deal, like the Canadians, which will lead to 6%
:06:19. > :06:22.lost growth, or you have a trade deal like the Brazilians, the
:06:23. > :06:27.Russians have with the Europeans, and that will be more damaging to
:06:28. > :06:32.the UK economy. This is backed by figures. What have you got on your
:06:33. > :06:39.side to rebut it? The Chancellor, and you try to close me down on an
:06:40. > :06:43.important point the Chancellor has made and I will come back to that
:06:44. > :06:46.and then answer your question, the Chancellor said very recently that
:06:47. > :06:52.mortgage rates would go up for the British public is Brexit occurred
:06:53. > :06:58.because the pounds would go down and inflation would go up. When that
:06:59. > :07:01.happened in 2009, the last time, this is the Chancellor of the
:07:02. > :07:06.Exchequer talking, the interest rates went down. That was a
:07:07. > :07:12.deception and a deliberate lie to frighten people. As regards the
:07:13. > :07:16.Treasury report, it is also an exercise in trying to frighten
:07:17. > :07:23.people. It is taking no account of the fact that outside Europe there
:07:24. > :07:28.will be benefits. It has taken all the costs and none of the benefits,
:07:29. > :07:32.as a lot of the commoners have said. That's because of the fact that we
:07:33. > :07:39.will have more freedom and more democracy, we will be able to forge
:07:40. > :07:42.our own path. They have taken, for example, according to newspaper
:07:43. > :07:47.reports I have read, I don't have my own large team of economists who can
:07:48. > :07:53.dissect it. Macro no, you don't. You just accuse the Chancellor of
:07:54. > :08:03.deliberate lying. Is it the way to conduct this campaign? Yes! Saying
:08:04. > :08:13.mortgage rates would go up? It is a protection based on the weakness of
:08:14. > :08:20.the pound. -- prediction. Then why when the pound was weak in 2009, why
:08:21. > :08:24.did interest rates go down will stop people will find it staggering that
:08:25. > :08:43.you as the chairman of a successful business are willing to contemplate
:08:44. > :08:49.what would happen... The point you said, the point you started off
:08:50. > :08:53.with, are we concerned about the uncertainty of Brexit. I think there
:08:54. > :09:04.is far more uncertainty by staying in Europe because if exit occurs and
:09:05. > :09:11.we read grain -- if Brexit occurs and we regain control of our own
:09:12. > :09:19.laws, at the moment laws are framed by the European commission and our
:09:20. > :09:26.MPs have only 50 votes out of about 750, we will have far more certainty
:09:27. > :09:31.if we regain power for the British Parliament because we can control
:09:32. > :09:34.events. You can go and see your own MP and have democracy. At the moment
:09:35. > :09:42.we don't have it. You are interrupting me! Because this is an
:09:43. > :09:50.interview! You have built a successful business, right? A
:09:51. > :09:58.moderately to good business. Your business involves the best part of
:09:59. > :10:01.1000 pubs. Yes. The stock market CU is a success and people have
:10:02. > :10:06.invested money with you. You have done all of that would Britain
:10:07. > :10:09.inside the European Union. I do think it was the European Union when
:10:10. > :10:20.I started. It was the common market. It has become a union. Is it
:10:21. > :10:24.troubling your business? It is. We are paying a lot on that money to
:10:25. > :10:31.Europe. We are losing control of regulation in this country and it is
:10:32. > :10:37.having a sporadic effect on the whole of Europe which has to be bad
:10:38. > :10:44.for our business. The Centre for economic and research wrote a report
:10:45. > :10:53.and reckon debris products or 8% lower. Sugar is 3.9% cheaper.
:10:54. > :10:57.Serials are 3.3% cheaper. Alcoholic drink the estimated to be 3% cheaper
:10:58. > :11:04.thanks to the single market. This is a relevant to your business. Who is
:11:05. > :11:16.producing these the two sticks? Everyone knows that the modern
:11:17. > :11:23.situation is meant to protect farmers. I am sure our agricultural
:11:24. > :11:27.products are higher price in the shops and if we were outside. I have
:11:28. > :11:35.met a lot of people who have said that, so it is difficult for me to
:11:36. > :11:43.contradict the person you have named in that report. It is interesting.
:11:44. > :11:52.An agricultural body that restricts imports. It is interesting that you
:11:53. > :11:55.skies in the vote leave campaign have an enormous amount of
:11:56. > :11:59.self-confidence. If you look at the range of people who are convinced
:12:00. > :12:03.that Britain live in the European Union would be bad for the British
:12:04. > :12:18.economy, it would include the majority of FTS -- FTSE CEOs. Again,
:12:19. > :12:23.the clear majority say they are convinced it would be better
:12:24. > :12:32.display. It is true, but you can deny. The IMF 's said... I am trying
:12:33. > :12:39.to give you the list, the litany of people in economic and business to
:12:40. > :12:44.say leaving will be a terrible idea. It is simply not true in my personal
:12:45. > :12:47.opinion and anyway, we have been here before. It is exactly the
:12:48. > :12:54.argument that was advanced in favour of the euro. The CBI was massively
:12:55. > :12:58.in favour of the euro. The financial Times massively in favour of the
:12:59. > :13:06.euro. All the good and the great amongst the political leaders. Tony
:13:07. > :13:10.Blair, Geoffrey Howe, or the Liberal Democrats. It was a great and good
:13:11. > :13:14.thing, and the euro, they ignore the fact that for a currency to work,
:13:15. > :13:20.you have to have a government. Terrible problems with the euro now.
:13:21. > :13:24.Terrible problem since it has been introduced and it defies economic
:13:25. > :13:34.logic. It is not based on economic 's, it is based on a quasi religious
:13:35. > :13:38.desire for a transfer of power to the supranational organisations.
:13:39. > :13:44.If you were in China or the United States, and you were looking to
:13:45. > :13:48.negotiate trade deals with Europe, do you think that Britain on its own
:13:49. > :13:51.carries more clout or do you think carries more clout or do you think
:13:52. > :13:57.that the biggest trading block in the world, the European Union
:13:58. > :14:02.carries more clout, when it comes to leverage and getting what Europe
:14:03. > :14:07.wants? I think that as an independent country we could strike
:14:08. > :14:10.better deals than Europe can. Leverage, you think Britain has more
:14:11. > :14:14.leverage than the European Union? I think that we've got very good
:14:15. > :14:18.leverage as the fifth biggest economy in the world. We're a
:14:19. > :14:23.country of 60 million. You're talking about negotiating with China
:14:24. > :14:29.with its 1. 3 billion people. The EU hasn't got a trade deal with China.
:14:30. > :14:35.Nor with America. This is what the Chinese say. We haven't got a trade
:14:36. > :14:38.deal with China or America. That's because these are the things that
:14:39. > :14:43.are going to be negotiated over the next few years. I'm asking you where
:14:44. > :14:47.the real power lies. It's a good example - This is what the Chinese
:14:48. > :14:52.say... We don't need a trade deal to trade with China or America. Let me
:14:53. > :14:58.tell you what the Chinese say... 1. 2 billion of them... From China's
:14:59. > :15:01.point of view, we don't think any single European country can play a
:15:02. > :15:05.global role. But the EU is different. It's the biggest market,
:15:06. > :15:10.biggest trading partner of China. The EU is seen here in Beijing as a
:15:11. > :15:16.major power in the world. If the UK left, it would hurt the UK much more
:15:17. > :15:22.than the EU. Well, it's very difficult to get disagree with a
:15:23. > :15:29.bland assertion such as that. You said America and China? Are
:15:30. > :15:36.Americans themselves going to cede their own democracy to a
:15:37. > :15:40.supra-national body like Mexico, Canada, put together into a greater
:15:41. > :15:44.organisation to negotiate things for them? The United States is a federal
:15:45. > :15:47.republic. That's the nature of their governance. They believe in a
:15:48. > :15:54.federation. That's what they created. A federation within
:15:55. > :16:00.America. They don't believe in a federation with Mexico and Nicaragua
:16:01. > :16:04.and Brazil and Canada. That's what, in effect, Britain is being asked to
:16:05. > :16:08.do within the EU. I think the United States, when they look at it
:16:09. > :16:12.closely, will say it's very important to have democracy within
:16:13. > :16:16.your own country. On the question of specific visions for the future of
:16:17. > :16:21.Britain after a Brexit vote, which you hope will happen, there is a lot
:16:22. > :16:27.of discussion about whether Britain will do a deal, can do a deal with
:16:28. > :16:32.the remaining members of the European Union to deliver both
:16:33. > :16:36.completely free access to the single market and a new arrangement on
:16:37. > :16:41.migration and the movement of people. So let's take them one by
:16:42. > :16:46.one. Do you believe Britain must have access to the single market,
:16:47. > :16:50.full access to the single market? I think it needs to have a trading
:16:51. > :16:55.arrangement with its neighbours, so full access to the single market? I
:16:56. > :17:00.think we can negotiate a very good deal. The EU itself, the biggest
:17:01. > :17:06.trading partner with China, doesn't have a deal with China. The EU
:17:07. > :17:11.doesn't have a deal with America. So you can still trade with countries
:17:12. > :17:17.without a formal deal. I think we'll be able to reach a formal or
:17:18. > :17:21.informal deal with the EU that's very good. Do you? The French
:17:22. > :17:27.economics minister just said that Britain will be completely killed.
:17:28. > :17:32.We are the biggest buyers of champagne in the world. We're one of
:17:33. > :17:38.the biggest buyers of French cheeses. We're a huge buyer of
:17:39. > :17:43.German cars. They sell us twice as much - You're talking about tangible
:17:44. > :17:49.goods - what about financial services, what about Deutsche Bank
:17:50. > :17:53.saying that - what about financial services? Is this an exercise in
:17:54. > :17:57.interruption? I don't know. Maybe you don't like questions, I don't
:17:58. > :18:02.know. I start to answer the question and you interrupt it. It's fine. If
:18:03. > :18:06.you want to do that. I do want to hear not just about cheese and wine
:18:07. > :18:10.and cars, tangible goods traded between us and Europe. That's fine.
:18:11. > :18:13.I'm asking you about perhaps more difficult things, like financial
:18:14. > :18:17.services, like the fact that the head of Deutsche Bank says London
:18:18. > :18:22.can forget about being a financial centre for Europe if it's not in the
:18:23. > :18:27.European Union. As you will remember during the euro, the main argument
:18:28. > :18:33.in favour of joining the euro was that if we didn't join our financial
:18:34. > :18:38.services and the City would be hammered by staying outside. We
:18:39. > :18:44.didn't join the euro and we've done really very well. When you get these
:18:45. > :18:50.scare stories, they're difficult to contradict, but there's no reason
:18:51. > :18:56.why the City shouldn't continue to thrive and financial services
:18:57. > :18:59.shouldn't ton thrive outside -- continue to thrive outside the EU.
:19:00. > :19:03.The free movement of people and migration then. One of the most
:19:04. > :19:08.contentious issues for campaigners for Brexit is the idea that we've
:19:09. > :19:11.lost, Britain has lost control of its borders and it has to re-impose
:19:12. > :19:15.the control and end the principle of free movement of people. Do you
:19:16. > :19:20.believe that is important for the British economy to end the free
:19:21. > :19:27.access for European workers into the British economy? My own view is that
:19:28. > :19:34.people who have gained access, the countries which have gained access
:19:35. > :19:39.already, that includes countries within the EU and countries like
:19:40. > :19:44.Switzerland and Norway, outside the EU, who are also entitled to live
:19:45. > :19:50.here, and it happened before the EU with Ireland, for example, they
:19:51. > :19:59.should continue to be able to come and live here with a passport or
:20:00. > :20:03.with - Free unfettered access? Yes. Because you're way out of step then
:20:04. > :20:08.with most in the vote Leave campaign. I don't know if I am out
:20:09. > :20:11.of step with most in the vote Leave campaign. That's my view what have
:20:12. > :20:15.should happen. Is that because your own business uses a lot of migrant
:20:16. > :20:22.labour? No. It's not because of that. It's because I think that up
:20:23. > :20:27.to now, the numbers of people that have come and have been sensible
:20:28. > :20:31.enough, some people feel - Really? Yes. You're way out of step with
:20:32. > :20:36.your colleagues in the Brexit campaign who believe that the
:20:37. > :20:40.hundreds of thousands who have come from Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, all
:20:41. > :20:44.sorts of different countries have fundamentally damaged the UK and not
:20:45. > :20:49.just the UK economy, but the UK culture. I don't believe that
:20:50. > :20:57.myself. I think that what's happened up to now has been acceptable. If
:20:58. > :21:04.our borders and if the EU expands our borders and if the EU expands
:21:05. > :21:07.further, then it has to be up to the British Parliament as to whether
:21:08. > :21:13.people should be allowed to come here. I think for the future, like
:21:14. > :21:21.the United States, or Australia, we should do it on a points system, not
:21:22. > :21:23.based on where you happen to be born, but based on the
:21:24. > :21:29.qualifications that the people have who want to come here and the needs
:21:30. > :21:33.of the country. We're close to the end. I want to bring in a different
:21:34. > :21:40.point. You're from Northern Ireland originally. Yes. You're more aware
:21:41. > :21:44.than most of the potential forces within the United Kingdom, I'm sure
:21:45. > :21:47.you're aware that the Scots, for example, in the form of Nicola
:21:48. > :21:51.Sturgeon, the leader of the SNP, have said if Britain, as a whole,
:21:52. > :21:54.votes to leave the European Union, but the Scots people, when you look
:21:55. > :22:00.at the result, have voted to stay, for her, that will be a clear signal
:22:01. > :22:05.that it's time to re-open again the argument for Scottish independence
:22:06. > :22:12.Well, there may be another Well, there may be another
:22:13. > :22:17.referendum any way. I don't think Nicola has ever refuted the idea of
:22:18. > :22:23.a second referendum. It may arise in a lot of circumstances. William
:22:24. > :22:26.Hague says that voting to leave will inevitably threaten the unity of the
:22:27. > :22:32.United Kingdom. Do you worry about that? I think myself that if the
:22:33. > :22:38.Scots want to leave the United Kingdom, it's a decision for them.
:22:39. > :22:45.It's very important that they don't stay in the United Kingdom under
:22:46. > :22:49.duress, so if they do want their own government, then I think probably
:22:50. > :22:53.it's a good thing for them and for the UK in they have it. I think the
:22:54. > :22:56.principle of democracy is the overriding one. That's where you
:22:57. > :23:02.started and that's where I guess we're going to end. On that point,
:23:03. > :23:06.you feel so passionately about this, we discussed and we can argue
:23:07. > :23:11.forever about whether the consensus within business and economics is for
:23:12. > :23:17.leaving or not, but do you ever think that you're putting your
:23:18. > :23:20.personal views before the interests of your employees or your
:23:21. > :23:25.shareholders when it comes to this Brexit argument? No. I've said in my
:23:26. > :23:29.magazine, this is what I think, but who cares what I think? It's up to
:23:30. > :23:35.you. What do you think? That's the reality of the matter. I personally
:23:36. > :23:40.think that democracy is needed for the future of humanity. I don't
:23:41. > :23:43.think unless it's enshrined in individual countries and increased
:23:44. > :23:51.in the future that the world will survive. Sounds rather dramatic, but
:23:52. > :23:54.you can't take democracy away from people or it always ends up in
:23:55. > :24:07.trouble. We'll end with that thought. Tim Martin, thank you very
:24:08. > :24:13.much for being on HARDtalk.