:00:00. > :00:10.More from me later. First, here is HARDtalk.
:00:11. > :00:18.Welcome to HARDtalk. South Africa's president, Jacob Zuma, is on the
:00:19. > :00:25.ropes. In recent months, he's been dealt low after blow, by the courts,
:00:26. > :00:29.by political opponents, even by erstwhile friends. Only the
:00:30. > :00:34.knee-jerk loyalty of the ANC has saved him from impeachment and
:00:35. > :00:40.disgrace. My guess today is South Africa's Trade Minister, Rob Davies.
:00:41. > :00:42.If the president won't jump, does he need to be pushed for the good of
:00:43. > :01:19.South Africa? -- my guest. Rob Davies in Cape Town, welcome to
:01:20. > :01:26.HARDtalk. Thank you very much. Minister, do you feel comfortable
:01:27. > :01:30.serving president whose behaviour has been defined by the
:01:31. > :01:36.Constitutional Court as in violation of your country's Constitution?
:01:37. > :01:40.Well, I think the point I would make is that the Constitutional Court,
:01:41. > :01:46.and indeed the High Court in Gauteng, none of the findings to be
:01:47. > :01:49.made recently have required the president should leave office. They
:01:50. > :01:54.have dealt with other issues and other remedial actions that are
:01:55. > :01:59.required, including the payment of a reasonable portion of what is
:02:00. > :02:08.deemed... No. Yeah, let me stop you right there, Minister. You've just
:02:09. > :02:14.thrown out of red -- a red herring in your first question. He is paid
:02:15. > :02:18.to mean not behaving in line with the Constitution, and my question is
:02:19. > :02:24.simple. Are you comfortable serving a president who is violating the
:02:25. > :02:27.constitution? As I said, there is no legal or constitutional reason for
:02:28. > :02:30.the president to leave office. It becomes a political question. If you
:02:31. > :02:34.look at most of the opposition parties, what they are looking at is
:02:35. > :02:38.not just the removal of President Zuma from office, they are looking
:02:39. > :02:41.at the removal of the African National Congress from its position
:02:42. > :02:45.in government, and I think that's fundamentally what it's about. They
:02:46. > :02:51.are looking for some early exit of the ANC, some movement from
:02:52. > :02:56.government before the expiry of its term in office, which lasts until
:02:57. > :02:59.the end of 2019. Actually what we've got is we've got a functioning
:03:00. > :03:04.government that is continuing to serve the interests of the people,
:03:05. > :03:09.and I'm very happy to continue to serve him. Well, you've just
:03:10. > :03:13.politicised this from the beginning and maybe unit something I don't.
:03:14. > :03:16.Maybe the finance minister is a secret member of the opposition,
:03:17. > :03:19.even though he appears to be a member of the ANC and the
:03:20. > :03:23.government, and I'm mentioning him because he set on the fifth of
:03:24. > :03:26.April, once our actions are seen to being congruent with the
:03:27. > :03:31.constitution, we must know that we've moved away from our duty to
:03:32. > :03:39.serve our people, and we have broken our contract. That's a government
:03:40. > :03:50.minister saying that. Well, I think that, yes, there were findings by
:03:51. > :03:56.the Constitutional Court in regard to the Incanla upgrade issue, and
:03:57. > :04:02.there were prescribed actions, that they appeared process of determining
:04:03. > :04:05.the value of the non- security upgrades and the proportion the
:04:06. > :04:09.president must pay, and that the president must pay it. So I think
:04:10. > :04:12.those were the findings of the Constitutional Court. What I'm
:04:13. > :04:16.saying is that it becomes a political question thereafter what
:04:17. > :04:22.happens to the president, and many of the opposition parties, much of
:04:23. > :04:26.the noise that there is around the need for the president to leave
:04:27. > :04:34.office is not founded... No, I'm sorry. I must come back. It's
:04:35. > :04:38.founded on a desire to try and replace a governing party that has
:04:39. > :04:42.not yet completed its mandate and continues to serve the people of the
:04:43. > :04:46.country. Maybe I'm not asking my question is clearly enough. Let me
:04:47. > :04:49.ask one more time. One of the most important ministers in your
:04:50. > :04:53.government, the Minister that you loyally serve, has basically
:04:54. > :04:58.declared that, in his view, given what the Constitutional Court has
:04:59. > :05:01.said, the president has broken his contract with the people. I'm asking
:05:02. > :05:09.you, do you agree with that or disagree? I think that the minister
:05:10. > :05:15.was actually saying, he was warning us that we cannot operate beyond the
:05:16. > :05:21.bounds of the constitution. We have to operate within the framework of
:05:22. > :05:25.the constitution. The president is way beyond the bounds of the
:05:26. > :05:29.constitution. I think that's a matter of debate and discussion.
:05:30. > :05:32.That's what I'm saying. From a legal and constitutional point of view,
:05:33. > :05:36.there is no reason for the president to leave office. The call and the
:05:37. > :05:44.clamour for him to do so is a political clamour, and quite a lot
:05:45. > :05:48.of it is orchestrated by political parties who want to shorten the term
:05:49. > :05:52.of the government. Let's leave aside your constant refrain that this is
:05:53. > :06:01.cooked up by the opposition. Let's remember that the highest
:06:02. > :06:05.Constitutional Court, independent - that's the point of the
:06:06. > :06:13.constitution. And let's reflect on the Incandla scandal. Many people
:06:14. > :06:23.around the world won't know the story that innocence Jacob Zuma said
:06:24. > :06:30.he was refurbishing because of requirements for special pencil
:06:31. > :06:36.cattle on his Raj style estate, an amphitheatre as well. He claimed all
:06:37. > :06:40.this the security purposes, which patented wasn't true, and you are
:06:41. > :06:45.saying it doesn't call into question whether he can be president any
:06:46. > :06:52.more. Well, the remedial action that the public thought was in respect of
:06:53. > :06:56.those features, that the president should pay a reasonable proportion
:06:57. > :06:59.of the cost of those, and that is what the constitutional court has
:07:00. > :07:03.upheld, and that process of determining that, which will be
:07:04. > :07:08.followed within a period of time, overseen by the Constitutional
:07:09. > :07:14.Court, that is the remedy in respect of that particular episode, which,
:07:15. > :07:17.by the way, had other features in it, and the cost overruns, the
:07:18. > :07:22.design of the security features, the way in which it was contracted out -
:07:23. > :07:27.those various departments and government officials and ministers
:07:28. > :07:33.were required to deal with the consequences of that. And indeed
:07:34. > :07:39.they have been subject to criminal investigation. Dynasty, are you in
:07:40. > :07:44.anyway embarrassed by the artist you feel you've had to give to me today,
:07:45. > :07:51.presumably for political reasons -- Minister? I haven't any reason to be
:07:52. > :07:54.embarrassed. I'm telling you the way I look at the situation in South
:07:55. > :08:02.Africa, that we've got a functioning government in place, and there have
:08:03. > :08:06.been some unfortunate incidents. I don't think anyone thinks the
:08:07. > :08:16.Incandla story was something that we were all happy and proud about. But
:08:17. > :08:19.also the president asked for the security upgrades in his house, and
:08:20. > :08:24.certainly there have been some excesses and lapses in our system,
:08:25. > :08:27.but the remedial action has been described by the Public protector
:08:28. > :08:32.and upheld by the Constitutional Court. One thought on a personal
:08:33. > :08:35.level. It was very striking to me that one of Nelson Mandela's
:08:36. > :08:47.greatest friends and fellow strugglers and prisoners, who is now
:08:48. > :08:51.86, who has consistently said, I will not criticise the leadership of
:08:52. > :08:59.the ANC, even if I feel they are going in the wrong direction because
:09:00. > :09:03.they are disloyal. This man Ahmed Kathrada finally said this when he
:09:04. > :09:06.saw what the court ruled. He said, is it asking too much to express the
:09:07. > :09:13.hope that you, Jacob Zuma, of course, will choose the correct way
:09:14. > :09:18.and finally consider stepping down? Now, Ahmed Kathrada is in many ways
:09:19. > :09:27.the living conscience of your movement, the ANC. Did his words
:09:28. > :09:30.give you pause for thought? Well, I think that Ahmed Kathrada is someone
:09:31. > :09:37.that we respect greatly. There have been other voices, Dennis Goldberg
:09:38. > :09:41.among them, also a person that we respect greatly and we revere, and
:09:42. > :09:45.they have been expressing their opinions. They've been expressing
:09:46. > :09:53.their opinions publicly. We have a process in the African National
:09:54. > :09:58.Congress of consulting our branches and our members, but we, actually,
:09:59. > :10:02.the leadership of the ANC, the National executive committee, of
:10:03. > :10:06.which I'm a member, we took the view that the apology of the president,
:10:07. > :10:11.the remedial action that was in place, was a very significant path
:10:12. > :10:16.towards putting right what had gone wrong, and that we didn't consider
:10:17. > :10:21.that the removal of the president was warranted at that particular
:10:22. > :10:27.moment in time, and that's the decision that we took, and that
:10:28. > :10:31.decision we debated and discussed with members of our organisation,
:10:32. > :10:35.including, I believe, that the leadership of the organisation, the
:10:36. > :10:40.top six, will be meeting with some of those revered leaders of hours
:10:41. > :10:46.and discussing with them their views and our views as well. You are a
:10:47. > :10:49.parliamentarian. Obviously Parliament is ultimately the
:10:50. > :10:52.legislative authority, and also the authority when it comes to
:10:53. > :10:57.impeaching a president. You have the opportunity to vote on impeaching
:10:58. > :11:00.Jacob Zuma. I can't think of a more important vote that you might have
:11:01. > :11:07.faced in your entire career. Did you vote? Well, actually I wasn't there.
:11:08. > :11:13.I was on government business elsewhere. It was an opposition
:11:14. > :11:17.motion. I wasn't fair. It was an opposition motion which needed a two
:11:18. > :11:21.thirds majority. It was never going to fly. It was something driven by
:11:22. > :11:26.them and their agenda. We didn't believe it was anything that was
:11:27. > :11:31.warranted, and that was the outcome is well in terms of the vote. I
:11:32. > :11:35.suppose it is, in a way, convenient that you don't have a mark on your
:11:36. > :11:38.record as having said that you actually voted to support Jacob
:11:39. > :11:43.Zuma. You were, rather conveniently, away from the chamber. It just seems
:11:44. > :11:48.you dodged the issue entirely. I would have voted with the ANC to
:11:49. > :11:53.vote down the impeachment motion of the opposition. How many people
:11:54. > :12:02.inside your party believe it's time to Jacob Zuma to go? Well, I don't
:12:03. > :12:06.know. As you indicated, there are some prominent voices which have
:12:07. > :12:12.said so publicly. There may be other people. But the view of the
:12:13. > :12:15.leadership is that it's not warranted by the outcome of the
:12:16. > :12:19.Constitutional Court. Just to be clear. I want to make this personal
:12:20. > :12:23.because politics is about conscience, it's not just about
:12:24. > :12:28.party loyalty, so I want to make this personal. Finally, on this
:12:29. > :12:32.point, on the record, to be clear, you personally believe that Jacob
:12:33. > :12:38.Zuma has the credibility, has the integrity to continue to be
:12:39. > :12:46.president of your country? Well, Jacob Zuma was elected president of
:12:47. > :12:50.the African National Congress, president of the country. His
:12:51. > :12:53.mandate has not concluded, and I believe his mandate is ongoing, and
:12:54. > :13:02.I'm happy to serve the government of the African National Congress.
:13:03. > :13:06.Well, you are extraordinarily loyal to your party, but you didn't really
:13:07. > :13:14.address the question of your own personal feelings about Jacob Zuma.
:13:15. > :13:17.Maybe you choose not to. Well, I'm loyal to the collective of the
:13:18. > :13:24.African National Congress, the vision of the African National
:13:25. > :13:27.Congress. To ask to correct things that have gone wrong in the
:13:28. > :13:36.administration of the state, but I believe we have a proud record of
:13:37. > :13:39.achievements that needs to be safeguarded as Phares the African
:13:40. > :13:43.National Congress is concerned. That's where I deployed and I have a
:13:44. > :13:47.contribution to make, and that's what I'm doing. We'll get to
:13:48. > :13:52.discussing the economy in just a minute. Let's get there by way of,
:13:53. > :13:56.it seems to me, another fundamental credibility issue facing your
:13:57. > :14:02.government. How did you respond when the Financial Times reported that
:14:03. > :14:07.deputy finance minister Jonas had told them that a controversial
:14:08. > :14:15.family with major business interest in South Africa, the Gupta family,
:14:16. > :14:27.had offered him the post of Finance Secretary, Finance Minister?
:14:28. > :14:33.Well, like many, many people I am extremely concerned if there is any
:14:34. > :14:38.element of truth in that. I do know that minister macro tree is a person
:14:39. > :14:41.of integrity. I have no reason to doubt that he is telling us the
:14:42. > :14:46.truth, and I think there is a serious problem if we have people
:14:47. > :14:50.from business concerned offering people ministerial positions. That
:14:51. > :14:54.is completely out of order, that is completely unacceptable, and indeed,
:14:55. > :14:59.I think Deputy Minister Jonas, the way he reported it, he did the right
:15:00. > :15:03.thing in refusing it. That's what Jonas said, he said I rejected out
:15:04. > :15:08.of hand because it made a mockery of hard earned democracy and of course
:15:09. > :15:11.I should say that the Gupta family have categorically denied the
:15:12. > :15:14.meeting, have denied that they were politically interfering in any way
:15:15. > :15:25.but the fact is that many South Africans have seen... Go on. So the
:15:26. > :15:28.ANC has invited everyone with information to come to the ANC and
:15:29. > :15:33.explain to them, to put all their cards on the table, and to come back
:15:34. > :15:37.to the executive and deliver us a report on this matter. I don't know
:15:38. > :15:45.the veracity of any particular allegations or not, I don't know.
:15:46. > :15:49.What you do know is that Jacob Zuma fired his Finance Minister on the
:15:50. > :15:56.ninth of December 2015, I think it was. He appointed a man who was
:15:57. > :16:01.virtually unknown to the position, and then four days later he fired
:16:02. > :16:07.him, and appointed another man who had been Finance Minister before
:16:08. > :16:13.him. What does that tell us about the ability of the President to
:16:14. > :16:22.manage the economy by way of key appointments? Well, I think that the
:16:23. > :16:27.fact that he eventually emerged as the Finance Minister meant that what
:16:28. > :16:31.happened was that the organisation, the leadership of the organisation,
:16:32. > :16:35.are capable of recognising where there has been a mistake and capable
:16:36. > :16:42.of correcting it. And that's what happened in that particular case. It
:16:43. > :16:47.was a shambles. Well, you can use whatever adjective you want, but I'm
:16:48. > :16:52.just saying that the organisation was capable of rectifying the
:16:53. > :16:57.mistake. And on this question of crony capitalism, and the state
:16:58. > :17:00.being captured by certain business interests, which you know better
:17:01. > :17:04.than me is a conversation that many South Africans have had in the last
:17:05. > :17:11.few months, and are having right now today, let me just ask you this
:17:12. > :17:17.question. Do you know of are Guptas? I do. I have met them on a number of
:17:18. > :17:21.occasions, yes. You have met them as a minister. Does it strike you as at
:17:22. > :17:26.least an uneasy and awkward thing that when you meet the Guptas, you
:17:27. > :17:30.know full well that the President's Sun has a major stake in some of
:17:31. > :17:34.their holding companies. Does that... You know, when we are
:17:35. > :17:39.talking about crony capitalism and the way South Africa works today,
:17:40. > :17:43.does that make you feel uneasy? Well, let me just say from point of
:17:44. > :17:49.view of me and my department and where I work, when I interact with
:17:50. > :17:52.people there no way at all that any interaction I have with any
:17:53. > :17:57.individual, any person, is going to influence how we deploy our forces
:17:58. > :18:01.as a department. We have professionals. We take decisions
:18:02. > :18:07.about how we deploy our incentives. We set policy frameworks. I do not
:18:08. > :18:11.get involved in deciding whether any individual businessperson will or
:18:12. > :18:14.will not get access to any of our particular programmes. They never
:18:15. > :18:19.asked me about it, and had they asked me, that would be the answer I
:18:20. > :18:23.gave them. Coming back, finally, give me a simple answer. Do you feel
:18:24. > :18:27.uneasy when you meet significant, major business players in South
:18:28. > :18:35.Africa and you know that one of the President's closest relatives as a
:18:36. > :18:38.major stake in what they are doing? Well, the Gupta family, none of
:18:39. > :18:43.their business interests interact with anything our department. I met
:18:44. > :18:45.many business people in South Africa, I met multinational
:18:46. > :18:48.corporations who have invested in our country, all kinds of business
:18:49. > :18:52.people. I have an approach to them which is one that I am a servant of
:18:53. > :18:55.the people of the country. I take decisions in the interest of the
:18:56. > :18:59.country as a whole, I don't take decisions in the interest of any
:19:00. > :19:04.particular business people. All right. Now, we have talked about the
:19:05. > :19:07.political crisis at the top of your government. We have talked about the
:19:08. > :19:11.allegations and the uneasy about so-called crony capitalism in South
:19:12. > :19:17.Africa today. What we need to get to is the fact that your economy is in
:19:18. > :19:20.dire straits. The Finance Minister, whom we have discussed, Pravin
:19:21. > :19:27.Gordhan, said just a couple of weeks ago, let us be honest, the economy
:19:28. > :19:34.is in crisis. Do you agree? I do. And, as is the world economy. And
:19:35. > :19:38.what is happening at this particular phase of the world economic crisis
:19:39. > :19:41.is that it is not just affecting us in South Africa as it has done up
:19:42. > :19:46.until now, in the form of depressed global demand, but also right now it
:19:47. > :19:52.is affecting mineral commodity producing and exporting countries.
:19:53. > :19:57.So we're in the same category as Canada, which has been in recession.
:19:58. > :20:02.Our growth rate is pretty much the same Australia's. Brazil is in a
:20:03. > :20:06.deep recession, and many countries in the African continent which are
:20:07. > :20:10.producers and exporters of primary commodities are suffering from the
:20:11. > :20:12.fact that the commodity supercycle passed its peak in 2012 and
:20:13. > :20:17.commodity prices are very much lower than they have been in recent past.
:20:18. > :20:22.That is the gist of it, and we are an economy in which 60% of our
:20:23. > :20:28.export earnings are from exports. Well, if I may say so, minister, a
:20:29. > :20:32.lot of South Africans would say that is partly the gist of it. No one
:20:33. > :20:36.would doubt that the end of the commodity supercycle has had a great
:20:37. > :20:40.effect on South Africa, that is hardly deniable. But what is surely
:20:41. > :20:45.to the point here, is that your government, the government usurped
:20:46. > :20:49.as part of, has proven incapable of showing leadership and getting the
:20:50. > :20:54.country out of the mess. In fact, the mess is getting worse and worse.
:20:55. > :20:58.Unemployment is at least 25%, although the IMF says it is much
:20:59. > :21:04.closer to 32%. You've got a growing debt in your nation which has, I
:21:05. > :21:10.think, doubled since Jacob Zuma came to power. Your currency is showing
:21:11. > :21:13.historic weakness, and all the signs are that the credit ratings agencies
:21:14. > :21:19.who look at you from the outside are going to downgrade your credit
:21:20. > :21:23.rating to junk status. You represent sort of South Africa to the world in
:21:24. > :21:30.economic terms. You've got to accept this is all a disaster. I don't
:21:31. > :21:34.accept it is all a disaster, what I would accept is that we are facing
:21:35. > :21:38.some very, very serious challengers. And we are in the same category as
:21:39. > :21:44.many other economies. Now... Yes, but not all those economies are led
:21:45. > :21:48.by governments which have totally lost credibility. No, but I don't
:21:49. > :21:53.think that that's the case either with South Africa. For a start, what
:21:54. > :21:59.our programmes are are to address the things that we can affect under
:22:00. > :22:03.very difficult circumstances. So for example, if you are in South Africa
:22:04. > :22:06.about 18 months ago, people were talking about the energy challenges.
:22:07. > :22:11.We have not had any kind of power interruption for nine months in this
:22:12. > :22:16.country now. We are getting on top of the energy situation. But that is
:22:17. > :22:19.precisely because so many of your big industrial countries, including
:22:20. > :22:22.mining operations and others, are no longer using the same amount of
:22:23. > :22:27.power because the economy is in such a slowdown. That is precisely why
:22:28. > :22:30.your power cuts are not taking place at the moment. But leave that aside,
:22:31. > :22:35.we are almost out of time. You are the Trade Minister, surely this...
:22:36. > :22:40.We are not in recession. Not yet, but you are very close. We have a
:22:41. > :22:45.steady inflow of investments. We have a steady inflow of investments.
:22:46. > :22:47.Some of our sectors in manufacturing, where I am
:22:48. > :22:51.responsible, where diversification is the key element of our response,
:22:52. > :22:55.we have seen for example the automotive, we have seen very
:22:56. > :23:01.significant investment and very significant... Foreign Minister, if
:23:02. > :23:05.I may say so, we are almost out of time. Foreign investment into South
:23:06. > :23:08.Africa fell 74%, that according to the Congress on trade and
:23:09. > :23:11.development on the 24th of January. That is the real situation in your
:23:12. > :23:16.country today because of the political mess all around you.
:23:17. > :23:22.Absolutely not. That particular figure was the product of two
:23:23. > :23:26.transactions by two companies. We will see the same drop again when we
:23:27. > :23:29.see Barclays restructure its operations in Africa but actually
:23:30. > :23:34.there is a steady pipeline of investments that are coming into our
:23:35. > :23:38.country, going into the water, going into fast moving consumer goods,
:23:39. > :23:41.going into our infrastructure projects, going into railways, there
:23:42. > :23:45.is a steady stream of foreign investment in the real economy. Yes,
:23:46. > :23:48.the mining economy is not as attractive as it was. There is
:23:49. > :23:53.difficult circumstances. But the devalued currency has not been bad
:23:54. > :23:56.for many of our productive sectors. All right, final question because
:23:57. > :24:01.we're out of time and it will have to be pretty much yes or no. Will
:24:02. > :24:05.Jacob Zuma serve out his full term? Well, I'm not going to get into
:24:06. > :24:14.those kinds of predictions. I don't see any reason at this point in time
:24:15. > :24:16.why he should not. All right, Rob Davies, thank you very much for
:24:17. > :24:18.joining me from Cape Town.