:00:00. > :00:00.The constitution requires at least three million signatures,
:00:00. > :00:24.Welcome to HARDtalk. Over the last five years, the Libyan state has in
:00:25. > :00:28.shattered into fragments. Now it has a UN backed government committed to
:00:29. > :00:33.restoring unity. But the omens don't look good. The political scene is
:00:34. > :00:39.confused. Multiple well-armed militias call the shots on the
:00:40. > :00:44.streets. And the jihadists from the Islamic State pose a continued
:00:45. > :00:50.threat. My guest is the former deputy minister, Mustafa Abushagur.
:00:51. > :01:19.He backs the unity government. Is Libya beyond salvation? Mustafa
:01:20. > :01:27.Abushagur, welcome to HARDtalk. Thank you. Let's talk about what is
:01:28. > :01:33.happening in Libya. In the past two months you have had a unity
:01:34. > :01:39.government, the so-called National Accord. But the idea it is united,
:01:40. > :01:48.your country, it is fantasy. For the time being, it is. But the
:01:49. > :01:54.international court came a -- as a result of the dialogue as part of
:01:55. > :02:06.the United Nations... You are part of that? Yes. It started in January
:02:07. > :02:20.2015. It was a very long process. At the beginning, the parties who joins
:02:21. > :02:26.that... What happened in 2014 we had a court in Libya and trippy oh
:02:27. > :02:31.Tripoli. We had an election for the Parliament. They refused to hand
:02:32. > :02:35.over to the new parliament. I don't want to get our audience to
:02:36. > :02:42.confused. The bottomline is that for a long time you have had two
:02:43. > :02:46.authorities both claiming legitimacy. A House of
:02:47. > :02:52.Representatives that went off in the east of the country. They claimed
:02:53. > :02:57.they were the legitimate authority. Now, thanks to the efforts of people
:02:58. > :03:02.like you and the UN you have this new Prime Minister and unity
:03:03. > :03:07.government sitting in Tripoli. But it is one thing putting this down on
:03:08. > :03:12.paper and claiming to be uniting the country. For the past few months all
:03:13. > :03:18.we have seen is fighting and military activity. There is no sense
:03:19. > :03:25.that the new Prime Minister can actually impose his will. He is
:03:26. > :03:32.starting to take the right steps towards that. We expected this would
:03:33. > :03:40.be challenging. A challenging phase in the life of Libya. Having
:03:41. > :03:49.agreed... When they come to Tripoli, the militias, we expected
:03:50. > :03:55.they would refuse, like what happened in Benghazi. But it didn't
:03:56. > :03:59.happen. Most of the army formations, militias, whatever we
:04:00. > :04:05.call them, realise this is an opportunity for the country to move
:04:06. > :04:09.forward. But the idea is that the Prime Minister does not control the
:04:10. > :04:16.militias, they control him. He can sit in his heavily fortified navel
:04:17. > :04:21.the as long as they let him. -- naval. But as we saw him arrived in
:04:22. > :04:26.the city and wanted to come by air and couldn't and had to come by
:04:27. > :04:32.boat, as we can see he doesn't call the shots. Things have changed. He
:04:33. > :04:37.has the backing from the international community. That made
:04:38. > :04:41.clear this is the legitimate government. Now he can control the
:04:42. > :04:47.money. If he can control that he will eventually be able to control
:04:48. > :04:50.the militias. I tell you what, in Libya right now I would rather have
:04:51. > :04:54.the guns than the money and he doesn't control them. He does not.
:04:55. > :05:00.Let's be realistic and not talk fantasy. One of the things that,
:05:01. > :05:04.apart from the guns, that he doesn't control, is still this House of
:05:05. > :05:08.Representatives elected in 2014 sitting in Tobruk. In theory,
:05:09. > :05:17.according to the documents you worked on, it still the legitimate
:05:18. > :05:26.Parliament. -- is still. They refused to return and make this new
:05:27. > :05:37.Prime Minister. In a sense they still hold power. -- legitimise. It
:05:38. > :05:44.has been approved by the house -- House of Representatives. But not
:05:45. > :05:50.the majority. What happened, this is February 23, to vote on the
:05:51. > :05:57.government, after he presented it to the Parliament, on that day we are
:05:58. > :06:06.ready to vote for the government. We have 102 at a 192. -- out of.
:06:07. > :06:14.Unfortunately we could not hold the session because the president of the
:06:15. > :06:20.House of Representatives, the speaker, refused to have a session.
:06:21. > :06:25.They turned the lights off on us. This is Libya all over. Your Prime
:06:26. > :06:31.Minister cannot even command the respect of the Speaker of the
:06:32. > :06:37.House. Frankly, you say it doesn't matter, we have the support of
:06:38. > :06:40.parliament, but you don't. It hasn't rubberstamped this new government.
:06:41. > :06:52.Not in a conventional way. But we moved out of this hall and we, the
:06:53. > :07:00.102 of us, signed a new treaty. That is a deeply Libyan solution. Of
:07:01. > :07:07.course. It isn't sustainable. Let's move on to something more profoundly
:07:08. > :07:13.problematic. The role of perhaps the most important military general in
:07:14. > :07:24.Libya today, Khalifa. He controls the loyalty of many, he calls it the
:07:25. > :07:29.Libyan National Army. It is a potent military force in the east of the
:07:30. > :07:32.country. He, just the other day, gave a television interview in which
:07:33. > :07:40.he described this unity national accord government as quote unquote
:07:41. > :07:45.nonsense. -- National Accord. Of course. He realises that if there is
:07:46. > :07:49.a national government he will have nothing to do. He formed a militia.
:07:50. > :07:58.At the time he had no legitimacy whatsoever. He decided to come and
:07:59. > :08:09.attack Benghazi to fight terrorism as a military chief. There is only
:08:10. > :08:28.one government that existed when he started. Not two. He attacked on
:08:29. > :08:31.Ghazi. -- on Benghazi. This person says to the Libyan people that we
:08:32. > :08:39.are the legitimate military force in this country. To quote his recent
:08:40. > :08:48.interview, we will not leave one part of Libya alone. He believes he
:08:49. > :08:54.is the force that can unify Libya. A man with weapons and men and the
:08:55. > :08:59.will. He sees himself as Batman. Of course he sees himself as that way.
:09:00. > :09:05.He sees himself as the inheritor of Gaddafi. But 75% of the country does
:09:06. > :09:20.not accept him. The population of Brazil. He tried before that and was
:09:21. > :09:24.rejected. Sorry to interrupt. Do you see him as a war criminal? The old
:09:25. > :09:31.government did to be one of his old staff who recently left his service,
:09:32. > :09:34.Muhamed, says he has been using secret paramilitary forces to carry
:09:35. > :09:39.out abductions, killings and the headings. Would you like to see him
:09:40. > :09:46.put on trial? Yes. He committed crimes. This is his Luton and, he is
:09:47. > :09:53.speaker, and it is clear he did all of this. -- lieutenant. We know he
:09:54. > :10:02.did this. It is clear from the trials. But Khalifa has the most
:10:03. > :10:07.coherent military force in Libya today. When you say the man is
:10:08. > :10:13.possibly a war criminal and needs to be trialled for alleged war crimes,
:10:14. > :10:19.it says to me that yet again here is a very deep hole that Libya is about
:10:20. > :10:23.to fall in... No. If you look at the Libyan army there is more than
:10:24. > :10:30.100,000 throughout the country and listed. -- enlisted. The number who
:10:31. > :10:41.would follow him would not accede a few hundred. I don't think so. -- go
:10:42. > :10:48.over a few. Most of those people have been trained for like two
:10:49. > :10:53.weeks. They would die in the hundreds and thousands in a battle.
:10:54. > :11:00.I would hate to see any one of them being killed. They are being killed
:11:01. > :11:02.every day. Unfortunately. You have talked about Benghazi where the
:11:03. > :11:11.fight is very active. But perhaps the most important frontline,
:11:12. > :11:18.especially with Western powers looking on, the most important line
:11:19. > :11:23.is Sirte, where Islamic State has a stronghold. And then on the other
:11:24. > :11:30.side you have Khalifa encircling the city. And then another side the
:11:31. > :11:36.Muslim Brotherhood, some related to the government in Tripoli. It seems
:11:37. > :11:41.there is a race to liberate Sirte from Islamic State. But that is not
:11:42. > :11:45.going to necessarily make Libya's problems any less serious. You will
:11:46. > :11:52.have a huge fight between the different militias. The real fight
:11:53. > :12:02.is not going on in Sirte, it is going between the council he has
:12:03. > :12:09.formed made out of military officers and others. It has gone on for...
:12:10. > :12:14.They look more loyal to themselves than the Prime Minister. Let's leave
:12:15. > :12:18.that aside. The West wants to believe that somehow it can help
:12:19. > :12:24.Libyan forces liberate Sirte from Islamic State. They are worried
:12:25. > :12:30.about Islamic State's strength, obviously. Obviously. Do you think
:12:31. > :12:35.the West should be arming these different forces that are trying to
:12:36. > :12:40.take on Islamic State? Would that be wise? Islamic State is a danger to
:12:41. > :12:49.Libya and the world. Obviously. Again, though, it has to be unified
:12:50. > :12:52.under the government of National Accord and needs support from the
:12:53. > :13:01.international committee. But there is no point in talking fantasy. They
:13:02. > :13:04.are not united, those trying to take on Islamic State. John Kerry said
:13:05. > :13:09.the other day that we must do everything we can to confront
:13:10. > :13:15.Islamic State in Libya. So, would be West be wise to lift its arms
:13:16. > :13:18.embargo and send arms to the various different militias and fighters who
:13:19. > :13:24.are confronting Islamic State in Libya today? Those they are
:13:25. > :13:29.confronting, at least from the West's diet, they are under the
:13:30. > :13:40.leadership and have accepted the leadership. -- side. They will need
:13:41. > :13:49.the support. They need training and logistics and intelligence. They are
:13:50. > :13:52.getting that. I don't know Howard you feel as a Libyan knowing there
:13:53. > :14:00.are hundreds, it seems, hundreds of Western special forces on Indian
:14:01. > :14:06.soil today. -- how you feel. British, Australian, and Americans.
:14:07. > :14:13.There is a group of them in the east and the West. They are intelligent
:14:14. > :14:19.scattering and are helping them to defeat Islamic State. You want them
:14:20. > :14:25.to go into Sirte alongside the Libyan fighters?
:14:26. > :14:31.No, I just want them to provide support and I don't expect the
:14:32. > :14:35.Americans or British or Italians to fight this fight. What are they
:14:36. > :14:40.going to do? Sit on the site and watch? Clearly help with planning,
:14:41. > :14:46.intelligence, training for the people who can fight. It seems to
:14:47. > :14:52.me, and I think the man appointed by the Prime Minister to be your
:14:53. > :14:56.Foreign Minister, has said that the problem so often in Libya over the
:14:57. > :15:01.last five years is that the West has looked through a very
:15:02. > :15:05.self-interested prison when it addresses Libya's problems. --
:15:06. > :15:11.prism. It worries about Islamic State and migration, but it doesn't
:15:12. > :15:16.really consider the needs of Libya as a nationstate. Do you think
:15:17. > :15:22.that's a fair criticism? I don't think it is accurate. I think
:15:23. > :15:25.there's a lot of interest from international community. A stable
:15:26. > :15:30.Libya can clearly help stabilise the whole region. About the time Libya
:15:31. > :15:33.is in the background of Europe and any problems in Libya, especially
:15:34. > :15:39.instability, can spill over to Europe. Even Barack Obama recently
:15:40. > :15:41.in a interview said that one of his greatest regrets was the failure of
:15:42. > :15:46.American and Western policy in Libya. He said the Brits got
:15:47. > :15:50.distracted, the French got distracted, we got distracted and we
:15:51. > :15:54.never followed through after toppling Gaddafi. Because they
:15:55. > :15:57.thought it would be easier for the Libyans to deal with it, not of
:15:58. > :16:07.course we still have the legacy of Gaddafi. So there was no plan for
:16:08. > :16:16.after, too, and help the Libyans build institutions. -- to help. So
:16:17. > :16:20.they thought as long as they brought Gaddafi downed the next step would
:16:21. > :16:25.be easy. What would a coherent Western strategy toward Libya today
:16:26. > :16:31.look like? I think it is coherent in the sense that they need to put a
:16:32. > :16:36.lot of effort and help in building these institutions and help us fight
:16:37. > :16:41.against Daesh. This is essential. We have serious problems in the
:16:42. > :16:47.country. When Gaddafi fell the whole country collapsed. That's why when
:16:48. > :16:50.we don't have institutions we can't execute any of these plans. So a lot
:16:51. > :16:55.of training needs to be done, a lot of help by expertise that need to be
:16:56. > :16:59.in bedded with the Libyan institutions to be able to help us
:17:00. > :17:07.to overcome. It is chicken and egg. It is. I come back to the general
:17:08. > :17:11.who hangs over this conversation because of his military strength, at
:17:12. > :17:15.least in the east of your country. He says, forget about all this talk
:17:16. > :17:22.of political rebuilding, of dialogue and institutions. Until we've won
:17:23. > :17:26.the war. So he says military solution first and only then can we
:17:27. > :17:30.really talk about rebuilding the political stability of the country.
:17:31. > :17:36.There's no military solution for Libya. He can't win a war in Libya.
:17:37. > :17:42.I know that's what he thinks he will be able to do. Because clearly...
:17:43. > :17:46.Because the east after the revolution was very different from
:17:47. > :17:52.the West. The revolution in the east last few days and then after that
:17:53. > :17:56.came stable. The West took about six months, so that's why it happened
:17:57. > :18:02.that a lot of these militias have been formed during that. So the
:18:03. > :18:06.general cannot take over. There would be a massacre. So really the
:18:07. > :18:15.only solution is a political solution. He needs to be part of the
:18:16. > :18:18.solution, how we can achieve... So despite the fact that earlier you
:18:19. > :18:21.said you would like to see him on trial for war crimes, you think he
:18:22. > :18:30.has to be part of the solution? Clearly we cannot just remove him by
:18:31. > :18:35.decision. He will not go. But the solution that we need to do, I mean
:18:36. > :18:43.where he gets his support? Who is supporting him? We know who it is.
:18:44. > :18:52.It is coming through Egypt, other neighbouring countries. Some of the
:18:53. > :18:55.Gulf states. Yes. Clearly they are supporting him and they have
:18:56. > :19:01.supported him continuously, even there is a numb argot in Libya.
:19:02. > :19:10.Unless those countries. Really intervening in Libya there will be a
:19:11. > :19:15.problem. -- will cease intervening. Let's talk about migration. You are
:19:16. > :19:18.the jumping off point for a lot of people from other parts of Africa
:19:19. > :19:21.who want to get into Europe, but also there are many Libyans who want
:19:22. > :19:25.to escape from your country because the situation is so dire. The
:19:26. > :19:30.economy is in meltdown and we have all of this violence as well. The
:19:31. > :19:36.agency Interpol has just said that they believe there may be up to
:19:37. > :19:38.800,000 would be migrants waiting in Libya to try and make the crossing
:19:39. > :19:44.into Europe. That's an extra ordinary number. Do you think that's
:19:45. > :19:49.right? If they are waiting outside of Libya that is different, but I
:19:50. > :19:53.know there are a lot of them in Libya, the hundreds of thousands...
:19:54. > :19:59.I think the implication is a lot of these people are Libyan. There are
:20:00. > :20:04.many who want to get out. There are. If you look at the Libyans in the
:20:05. > :20:10.east or the West, they are looking to leave, but there are economic
:20:11. > :20:14.problems that are facing the Libyan people, especially with liquidity
:20:15. > :20:20.and so on... Your banks are running out of cash, your food prices are
:20:21. > :20:25.spiralling. Basically, because the oil output is down by two thirds at
:20:26. > :20:29.least, the oil price is plummeting. The IMF says he will run out of
:20:30. > :20:34.money by 2019. Your economy is totally collapsed. That's why we
:20:35. > :20:38.need a political solution so we can bring the country back to stability
:20:39. > :20:46.and bring back the production of oil to before 2013. And to face these
:20:47. > :20:49.problems. There is no military solution and that's why those who
:20:50. > :20:53.try to have military solution it's not going to happen. That will bring
:20:54. > :21:01.us into civil war, because neither the forces in the West or East can
:21:02. > :21:05.win this war. We talked about the West's role in helping you fight IS,
:21:06. > :21:10.but just to finish up on the migration point, it seems to be odd
:21:11. > :21:13.that the European Union naval operation, which is trying to
:21:14. > :21:19.control migration from Libya and the north African coast, isn't allowed
:21:20. > :21:24.into Libyan waters. Why would you let the naval vessels into your
:21:25. > :21:30.waters? The government had -- has to decide that. Why are they allowed
:21:31. > :21:33.now? What are they going to do? Are they going to shoot them all rescue
:21:34. > :21:37.them? They are going to bring them back to go back to your country.
:21:38. > :21:42.That causes a lot of problems. So you aren't prepared to co-operate
:21:43. > :21:47.with the EU? And did you want support? We are willing to
:21:48. > :21:50.co-operate, but the solution for this immigration problem is
:21:51. > :21:56.protecting the Libyan country's borders. We need help to do that.
:21:57. > :22:00.This problem has been for a long time. The numbers are now much
:22:01. > :22:05.bigger, but why those people are coming? Because they are suffering.
:22:06. > :22:08.So there needs to be an international solution to this
:22:09. > :22:16.problem to bring some development to those nations that people will stay
:22:17. > :22:20.in their country. But right now it is criminals using these people. I
:22:21. > :22:24.wonder if there's element in your country, and maybe senior
:22:25. > :22:29.politicians such as yourself, that sees the migration problem as useful
:22:30. > :22:32.leverage. You can almost threaten, blackmail, Western powers, to say
:22:33. > :22:36.unless you help us more all of these people will leave Libya. The point
:22:37. > :22:44.is we can't control it. It is not a threat towards the West. It is a
:22:45. > :22:48.problem. Those people sit in Libya until they get enough money to pay
:22:49. > :22:53.the fee to jump in those boats, where the chance of survival is very
:22:54. > :23:00.small. They are committing crimes, causing problems, so really we are
:23:01. > :23:02.facing the first wave of those immigrants and the problems we are
:23:03. > :23:08.having. We've talked a lot about problems. We have to end now. He
:23:09. > :23:12.spoke about some of the Libyans want to leave the country. You took the
:23:13. > :23:16.decision after years in the US to come back in 2011. Are you reaching
:23:17. > :23:19.the point where you are beginning to think it isn't working and you have
:23:20. > :23:24.to get out? I still have hope. I came back to Libya because I was for
:23:25. > :23:28.more than 30 years against Gaddafi and ice or a chance for Libya to
:23:29. > :23:34.become a civilised state, a democratic state, a prosperous
:23:35. > :23:38.country. There are many like me to do whatever it takes to bring hope
:23:39. > :23:43.back to the people and I think there's a chance. You still have
:23:44. > :23:48.hope? I still do. Well that's a good way to end. Dr Mustafa Abushagur,
:23:49. > :23:54.they give very much for being on HARDtalk. Thank you. -- thank you
:23:55. > :24:11.very much. On Wednesday we had a number
:24:12. > :24:13.of heavy showers affecting England Thanks to this low pressure,
:24:14. > :24:17.this area of cloud,