:00:00. > :00:11.Welcome to The HARDtalk, I'm Stephen Sackur.
:00:12. > :00:14.Any hopes that Britain's decision on whether to stay in or leave
:00:15. > :00:16.the EU would be calm, dispassionate and respectful have
:00:17. > :00:24.In the run up to the referendum on 23 June, the two camps
:00:25. > :00:28.are kicking lumps out of each other, and the fight is at its bloodiest
:00:29. > :00:33.inside the governing Conservative Party.
:00:34. > :00:35.My guest today is Chris Grayling, the Leader
:00:36. > :00:39.of the House of Commons and a senior figure in the campaign to leave
:00:40. > :01:11.Will this political war ultimately weaken Britain and Europe?
:01:12. > :01:24.thank you. The British public has had weeks of this referendum
:01:25. > :01:28.campaign, and there are days more to go. Do you think the nature of the
:01:29. > :01:32.campaign is serving the British public well? I think there will
:01:33. > :01:38.always be some lively moments, but I think people like being given a real
:01:39. > :01:43.choice. This is a four-month campaign at which both sides have
:01:44. > :01:46.got ample opportunity to explain issues, get messages out. People
:01:47. > :01:51.will have to form their own judgement. There are strong views on
:01:52. > :01:58.both sides of the debate, ultimately it is a decision that will rest with
:01:59. > :02:04.the public. One of the most respected committees in the place,
:02:05. > :02:10.the House of Commons, described the debate as being full of lurid claims
:02:11. > :02:17.which are impoverishing the debate. I am not sure I necessarily by that
:02:18. > :02:22.argument. There have been some fairly robust arguments on both
:02:23. > :02:27.sides, such as the complaint of the money that is sent to the EU. That
:02:28. > :02:31.is a National office of statistics figures. People will probably be
:02:32. > :02:42.very interested in that, let me stop you. You claim that it cost Britain
:02:43. > :02:47.?350 million a week, membership of the European Union. That is frankly
:02:48. > :02:56.just plain wrong. It is not, the official figure is 9.9% of the
:02:57. > :03:03.national office of statistics... We only get about half of it back. So,
:03:04. > :03:07.you have just given the game way, you get it back. The figure that you
:03:08. > :03:12.present on the Leave campaign battle bus as how much it costs Britain
:03:13. > :03:17.every week to be in the EU is nonsense because you get more than
:03:18. > :03:21.half of the moneyback. We do get a rebate, which is continuous
:03:22. > :03:26.negotiation, and the second is... You are getting a rebate every year,
:03:27. > :03:34.so however you get an account for it, there is money going out
:03:35. > :03:40.amounting to about 18 billion of which the... Our overall
:03:41. > :03:47.contribution is over ?300 billion a week. What we get back is not under
:03:48. > :03:51.our control. We get about a quarter back through the rebate. That is
:03:52. > :03:56.under constant pressure from other EU members who want to get rid of
:03:57. > :04:02.it. What we have set throughout the campaign, that our gross on
:04:03. > :04:07.tradition. Our net contribution is about ?10 billion a year. As someone
:04:08. > :04:13.who has run government departments in top spending reviews, that would
:04:14. > :04:19.be a great addition to things like spending on our health service. I am
:04:20. > :04:23.taking a wild guess that this was a distortion would not persuade you to
:04:24. > :04:29.change your mind on the figures. I guessed that and clearly I am right.
:04:30. > :04:35.I just wonder whether you mind that, for example, some of the most
:04:36. > :04:41.respected figures in the land, such as the chair of the UK statistics
:04:42. > :04:45.authority, said that he is deeply disappointed that you continue to
:04:46. > :04:49.use that figure. Do you not care about that? What he said was that
:04:50. > :04:53.you need to play it in context, which I have done. But you have
:04:54. > :04:58.frequently used it without any context whatsoever. We have said
:04:59. > :05:03.throughout that that is our gross contribution. The money we do go
:05:04. > :05:11.back, we don't have control over. That is money that is decided for us
:05:12. > :05:14.as to how it is spent. Our rebate is under constant pressure from other
:05:15. > :05:18.member states. There is no guarantee that it will still be there in five
:05:19. > :05:27.years at White Oda new respect Sir John Major, perhaps a doyen of the
:05:28. > :05:35.Conservative party. He described the use of statistics and economic
:05:36. > :05:39.arguments as strategic political lying as an art form, it is great
:05:40. > :05:43.political fraud. I completely disagree. Using official statistics
:05:44. > :05:48.from the office of National statistics is hardly a national
:05:49. > :05:54.fraud. Other claims that have been made in the last few days by your
:05:55. > :06:01.side, Boris Johnson said that Britain is going to be on the hook
:06:02. > :06:08.for billions more from the EU because he says we will ultimately
:06:09. > :06:13.be forced to be a part of future bailouts. We will have to fork out
:06:14. > :06:17.billions. He also says there is a black hole in the European budget
:06:18. > :06:22.which we will have to meet. It is just plain wrong, isn't it? You and
:06:23. > :06:27.I know that the David Cameron deal with Europe is that those of us not
:06:28. > :06:33.in the eurozone will not be required to take in future eurozone bailouts.
:06:34. > :06:36.It is only a couple of years since a political agreement was reached
:06:37. > :06:38.between our government and other member states that said we would
:06:39. > :06:44.have to contribute to the last bailout. But that was immediately
:06:45. > :06:51.torn up subsequently. There is not yet a legal basis for our exclusion
:06:52. > :06:57.from any future bailouts. We have had to pay out billions... The
:06:58. > :07:01.entire debate is nonsensical. If you say that any agreements that have
:07:02. > :07:07.been signed me nothing... About three years ago, there was a
:07:08. > :07:12.political agreement about a gay lot of which written was not part, but
:07:13. > :07:19.then suddenly we turned out to be part of it. That is one of the
:07:20. > :07:25.challenges. On this question of truth telling and deceit or not, a
:07:26. > :07:31.final poster that really sticks in my mind is that Turkey is joining
:07:32. > :07:45.the EU. Turkey is a candidate member. It is. -- Turkey is a
:07:46. > :07:49.candidate member. We have a document setting out the current process of
:07:50. > :07:54.integrating Turkey into a number of EU processes as part of what it
:07:55. > :07:57.described as the process of bringing Turkey towards membership. That is a
:07:58. > :08:06.very long sentence and has nothing to do with the statement, Turkey is
:08:07. > :08:10.joining the EU. It is a candidate member and European commissioners
:08:11. > :08:19.are working towards Turkey joining. I don't know what the date is yet,
:08:20. > :08:32.but it is absolutely clear that it is going to occur. A plan was agreed
:08:33. > :08:37.only two months ago that to stop migrants crossing the AT, Turkey
:08:38. > :08:42.was going to become a member of the EU. According to my statement, you
:08:43. > :08:48.have no idea of whether Turkey will ever be a member of the EU. I am
:08:49. > :08:52.simply taking at face value what the European Commission said. They may
:08:53. > :08:57.be telling us a non- truce, but as far as I can see, Turkey is a
:08:58. > :09:04.candidate member and the EU is taking steps to move them towards a
:09:05. > :09:07.membership. Tell me if this is unfair, but you focus on Turkey
:09:08. > :09:12.because that is part of the main plank of your message delivery right
:09:13. > :09:15.now, which is about immigration? You seem to believe that you have a
:09:16. > :09:19.winning platform as long as you keep the debate in Britain on the
:09:20. > :09:27.question of immigration. You have suggested that Turkey is going to be
:09:28. > :09:31.an EU member in the 18 million Turks will have the freedom and write to
:09:32. > :09:35.come and live and work in the UK. Of course, that notion is so full of
:09:36. > :09:39.holes I don't know where to begin. But your cat has been peddling it
:09:40. > :09:45.for the last few months gradually we have a group of countries that are
:09:46. > :09:50.lined up to become members of the EU, they include study, Turkey,
:09:51. > :09:58.Macedonia and Turkey. In the case of Turkey, the commission explicitly
:09:59. > :10:03.agreed to accelerate the process of moving them towards the EU. Even if
:10:04. > :10:08.there is a restriction put in place to limit free movement of workers
:10:09. > :10:14.for a period, as was the case in the past, if you are self-employed, you
:10:15. > :10:18.can move straightaway. Very years that were in Romania and bog area
:10:19. > :10:23.joined, anyone working in the UK long before the official
:10:24. > :10:28.restrictions were lifted, south of the people could live in the EU from
:10:29. > :10:34.wherever they wanted from day one. How many Turks in this hypothetical
:10:35. > :10:38.land of yours we Turkey is a member of the EU, which of course it isn't,
:10:39. > :10:45.how many Turkish people do you think would come to the UK? I don't know,
:10:46. > :10:50.but what I do know from experience, in 2005 we admitted eight Eastern
:10:51. > :10:56.European countries. Five years later, we admitted Romania and Gary
:10:57. > :11:02.West European free movement. We saw very large numbers of people, in
:11:03. > :11:09.seven figures, come to the UK. That number is rising. There is no reason
:11:10. > :11:13.to believe that as more countries join, that that process won't
:11:14. > :11:21.continue. Net immigration to the UK was a third of a million, 333,000.
:11:22. > :11:30.Roughly half came from inside the EU and the rest came from outside. Your
:11:31. > :11:33.colleague Michael Gove has committed that if the Leaf campaign wins,
:11:34. > :11:39.within just a few years, that number will be down to tens of thousands.
:11:40. > :11:46.How are you going to do that? We have just passed and immigration
:11:47. > :11:49.act, they have put restrictions of movement from outside the EU. Within
:11:50. > :11:54.the EU, we have said there are a number of changes that we think need
:11:55. > :11:59.to happen. We are campaigning, we are not a government, but we have
:12:00. > :12:02.talked about a couple of things. The first is that people should only
:12:03. > :12:09.come to the UK to work if they have got a job. The second is that we
:12:10. > :12:11.should introduce a system similar to the Australian points -based system
:12:12. > :12:17.that allows us to recruit skills when we need them and not...
:12:18. > :12:22.Australia has a much higher proportion of migrants in their
:12:23. > :12:28.population than we do with their points -based system. How are you
:12:29. > :12:32.going to deliver this reduction when the CBI have said they want to see
:12:33. > :12:40.the movement of workers continue and they have said that the EU have
:12:41. > :12:44.consistently helped the UK to fill their skills shortage closer work it
:12:45. > :12:47.is about having control. At the moment, we can't control the flow of
:12:48. > :12:52.migration within Europe. When SEBI is telling you that immigration must
:12:53. > :12:58.continue because of the skills shortage, whether you talk about
:12:59. > :13:02.control will not, people will still have to come in. There are promises
:13:03. > :13:07.of reducing the numbers to tens of thousands, that does not stand up. I
:13:08. > :13:15.think it does. You want to strangle British business? I want people to
:13:16. > :13:21.have a choice. If we continue our levels at the moment, in overall
:13:22. > :13:25.terms, a city the size of Newcastle or Oxford every year, that will
:13:26. > :13:30.change our country. We will see more congested roads, more congested
:13:31. > :13:35.schools. We will see pressures on our health service. We will see
:13:36. > :13:41.pressures on the housing market. We will see significant additional
:13:42. > :13:45.development of green spaces around our country. If that is to happen,
:13:46. > :13:48.it is my view that the people of this country should have their
:13:49. > :13:54.choice. At the moment, there is no choice. Looking at other countries,
:13:55. > :14:01.some of those who have said we should stay with the EU, such as the
:14:02. > :14:09.US. The US, if they were going to have a similar issue, they would
:14:10. > :14:12.have to be having an SD card and people emigrate to America. Why
:14:13. > :14:17.should we have no control about the numbers of people who want to live
:14:18. > :14:18.and work it? I don't want to be a close the nation and its want to be
:14:19. > :14:29.able to manage that process. What about the tone of your
:14:30. > :14:34.argument? Sir John Major said it is overall squalid. I don't agree. You
:14:35. > :14:42.drive down the motorway and see that ridiculous poster you put up? That
:14:43. > :14:52.wasn't put up by us. It is fraudulent. It has nothing to do
:14:53. > :14:56.with us. It was Vote Leave. It was your campaign. It is perfectly
:14:57. > :15:02.possible for someone to mock up a poster. It isn't just posters. It is
:15:03. > :15:08.the tone. It is important to say, it isn't from us. This is important. We
:15:09. > :15:14.have talked about immigration as pressure on health, housing,
:15:15. > :15:19.schools, and the younger generation. Many are voting to remain, the
:15:20. > :15:25.younger people... Many younger people want to remain. If they want
:15:26. > :15:29.to get on the housing ladder, in what world will that become easier
:15:30. > :15:35.if we continue to have a city the size of Newcastle in immigrants
:15:36. > :15:42.coming to England every year. Do you think young people really related to
:15:43. > :15:48.Boris Johnson when he talked about efforts through history to recreate
:15:49. > :15:51.the empire of the Romans? He said Napoleon, Hitler, various other
:15:52. > :15:54.people tried it out, it ends tragically, and the EU is an attempt
:15:55. > :16:02.to do this by different method. Hitler? That association works? He
:16:03. > :16:06.was making a point. He is a politician like you. He is
:16:07. > :16:11.associating the EU with Hitler. He is also an accomplished historian
:16:12. > :16:15.and was making a historian's point. But he is speaking as a practical
:16:16. > :16:22.politician. He thinks linking the EU and Hitler is good politics he is an
:16:23. > :16:27.accomplished historian. He isn't, actually, professional, as a
:16:28. > :16:33.historian, he is a politician. He has written many books. You can
:16:34. > :16:39.choose to answer or not. Is it sensible to reach out to young
:16:40. > :16:43.people in this country today, many that travel around Europe, to link
:16:44. > :16:51.the EU and Hitler? What or is was doing was making a historical
:16:52. > :16:54.argument in poor taste. -- Boris. It is an interesting point, the polls
:16:55. > :17:01.suggest there is a clear division. The older generation, it seems, by
:17:02. > :17:03.and large, according to the polls, are with you, and the younger
:17:04. > :17:09.generation wants to remain in Europe. Why do you think that is? I
:17:10. > :17:12.don't know why people choose to vote the way they do... Why is your
:17:13. > :17:16.message not reaching out to young people? Interestingly, we have
:17:17. > :17:23.outing to see movement in the polls. I think that message is getting the
:17:24. > :17:30.younger generation. -- are starting to. When I talk to students and
:17:31. > :17:33.schools during the course of this campaign the message I give is think
:17:34. > :17:38.about the implications of the roles we have today for your future in the
:17:39. > :17:40.United Kingdom, especially about housing and the nature of the
:17:41. > :17:47.country in which they live. It will change, inevitably, and my point is
:17:48. > :17:52.not about that change being right or wrong, but about them having a safe.
:17:53. > :17:55.If we look forward, under current rules in the UK, we will see our
:17:56. > :18:02.country changed. I think the people who live here, old and you, should
:18:03. > :18:07.have a say. I would like to finish on the way this debate is being seen
:18:08. > :18:10.from outside. One of the key elements of the debate for your side
:18:11. > :18:17.is the conviction you seem to have that whatever the European states
:18:18. > :18:22.Sadie right now, other members, about things being different if
:18:23. > :18:27.written vote for Brexit... -- say. There will be a tough negotiation
:18:28. > :18:32.with the UK if you leave, you seem to say it is absurd to suggest the
:18:33. > :18:39.EU would put up trade barriers in a fit. You don't close a shop to your
:18:40. > :18:42.best customer, says Michael Gove. Do you not actually listen to what the
:18:43. > :18:51.rest of Europe is seen? Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande? --
:18:52. > :18:56.saying. You have to look at it the other way around. People are talking
:18:57. > :19:03.about advantageous terms. But it is also about the access of the rest of
:19:04. > :19:07.the EU to the UK market. If we leave the European Union we will represent
:19:08. > :19:15.17% of EU exports. We are crucial markets to French farmers and German
:19:16. > :19:19.automatic car makers. In what world do we think that their governments
:19:20. > :19:24.are going to jeopardise the 5 million jobs that depend upon UK
:19:25. > :19:29.consumers? Let me try and address that. The world in which that would
:19:30. > :19:36.be the case is a world in which the EU has greater leverage than the UK.
:19:37. > :19:40.To quote an independent economist, the truth is the EU needs us a great
:19:41. > :19:47.deal less than we need them. The worst case scenario is that its
:19:48. > :19:51.economy would be 0.2% smaller after Brexit. Not the case with us. The
:19:52. > :19:57.leverage is with them. I don't buy that. This is an independent
:19:58. > :20:03.economist. This is the French election year. The most vociferous
:20:04. > :20:07.lobby group in France are the farmers. If we don't carry on
:20:08. > :20:15.trading with the EU, the price of French agricultural projects in the
:20:16. > :20:19.UK will rise up to 40%. -- products. They will go bust, the French
:20:20. > :20:24.farmers. What sane politician in their election you possibly say to
:20:25. > :20:27.the farmers who will take to the streets in the drop of a hat, we
:20:28. > :20:32.will cripple your business in the most important market. It is a heck
:20:33. > :20:41.of a gamble you are taking, that senior politicians across Europe are
:20:42. > :20:44.crying wolf. Just to quote the Economy Minister from France,
:20:45. > :20:52.Britain will be completely killed in the global trade negotiations if it
:20:53. > :20:58.votes for Brexit. You think this language is a smokescreen? I
:20:59. > :21:03.listened very careful to Emmanuel's interview. He asked about power
:21:04. > :21:07.states developments in the UK. He said it is important it goes ahead.
:21:08. > :21:14.The Northern Powerhouse, I mean. There is a lot of physical rhetoric
:21:15. > :21:20.in this... People trust politicians internationally any more? -- to
:21:21. > :21:26.people. President Obama said it is quite clear that it is in the UK and
:21:27. > :21:31.the EU and the US's addressed for Britain to stay in the EU. --
:21:32. > :21:37.interest. Even China says though. Everyone looking in says, Britain,
:21:38. > :21:45.think carefully. You don't trust any of them? President Obama said it was
:21:46. > :21:51.in the US's interest... No, he said both. Look, the key point is we are
:21:52. > :21:56.looking out for the future. The debate is important is because over
:21:57. > :22:03.the next ten years, according to Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande,
:22:04. > :22:07.there is going to be a move. The EU in ten years time will look like big
:22:08. > :22:10.block called the United States of the eurozone or whatever and tacked
:22:11. > :22:15.onto it will be two countries, the UK and Denmark. The only two
:22:16. > :22:22.countries not bound by treaty to be part of that. How much they will we
:22:23. > :22:26.have in what goes on? How much will we be able to look after our
:22:27. > :22:29.national interest? All those countries saying we should stay,
:22:30. > :22:34.they aren't asking themselves the question what we in the same
:22:35. > :22:36.position putting ourselves into that situation, where we are unable to
:22:37. > :22:42.look after our national interest... We would be voted out every time.
:22:43. > :22:47.Referring to the question on whether you trust the words of people like
:22:48. > :22:53.President Obama internationally... I was in Washington. I talked to
:22:54. > :22:58.American politicians. The views they are much more nuanced than just
:22:59. > :23:02.President Obama. He happens to be the president. Let's talk about
:23:03. > :23:07.trust in one different way. You can't, it seems, trust your own boss
:23:08. > :23:10.any more, David Cameron. You don't trust him. I do trust in. He is and
:23:11. > :23:16.will continue to be a very good Prime Minister. -- him. But your
:23:17. > :23:21.colleagues, Michael Gove and Boris Johnson, they wrote saying he
:23:22. > :23:25.deceived the British public concerning Brexit. Do you believe he
:23:26. > :23:34.is to see for? How can you go on working for him if you believe that?
:23:35. > :23:40.-- deceitful. But he is a good Prime Minister. But he believe he is
:23:41. > :23:45.telling lies. I have every confidence in David Cameron as Prime
:23:46. > :23:48.Minister. Even if you think right now he is deceiving the British
:23:49. > :23:53.people? This will always be a lively debate. There are strong sentiments
:23:54. > :23:58.on both sides of the argument. But I make it be that it is in Britain's
:23:59. > :24:01.interest that regardless of the outcome, David Cameron is the best
:24:02. > :24:06.man to lead this country for the next New Year's. Chris Grayling,
:24:07. > :24:13.thank you very much for being on HARDtalk. -- few years. Thank you.
:24:14. > :24:28.It was a pleasure. THEME SONG PLAYS. Yesterday we saw some sunshine
:24:29. > :24:33.across many parts of the UK.