0:00:06 > 0:00:07Welcome to HARDtalk.
0:00:07 > 0:00:09I'm Shaun Ley.
0:00:09 > 0:00:12The Orlando murders in a gay nightclub are the worst mass
0:00:12 > 0:00:14shooting in US history, and already, Hillary Clinton
0:00:14 > 0:00:16and Donald Trump are clashing over the causes
0:00:16 > 0:00:22on the presidential election trail.
0:00:22 > 0:00:25Conservatives used to be united by their shared attitude to God,
0:00:25 > 0:00:28guns and gays, confident warriors in an ideological
0:00:28 > 0:00:29battle with liberals.
0:00:29 > 0:00:32Orlando is another test for those beliefs.
0:00:32 > 0:00:38David Frum, a lifelong conservative, campaigned for Ronald Reagan,
0:00:38 > 0:00:43wrote speeches for George W Bush.
0:00:43 > 0:00:46He thinks that the triumph of Trump proves the power
0:00:46 > 0:00:47of conservatism is breaking up.
0:00:47 > 0:00:48Should Republicans embrace change?
0:00:48 > 0:00:57Or should they consider embracing Hillary Clinton?
0:01:15 > 0:01:16David Frum, welcome to HARDtalk.
0:01:16 > 0:01:16Thank you.
0:01:16 > 0:01:18It is good to have you here.
0:01:18 > 0:01:20Omar Mateen's attack may well have been motivated
0:01:20 > 0:01:24by an extreme view of Islam, but he chose to commit it in a club
0:01:24 > 0:01:27with a predominantly gay clientele.
0:01:27 > 0:01:29What responsibility do you think rests on American conservatives
0:01:29 > 0:01:31for the sort of attitudes that his actions represent?
0:01:31 > 0:01:34Erm, I would think very little on American conservatives.
0:01:34 > 0:01:37He seems, the killer, and I'm not going to say his name,
0:01:37 > 0:01:39seems to have been motivated by a combination of extremist
0:01:39 > 0:01:41Islamic ideology, very possibly his own repressed
0:01:41 > 0:01:49and conflicted sexuality, and all of this made
0:01:49 > 0:01:53possible by too easy access to deadly weapons.
0:01:53 > 0:01:56We'll come onto the question of weapons.
0:01:56 > 0:02:00But just on that point you make about his mixed motives - let me put
0:02:00 > 0:02:03to you what Chase Strangio, of the American Civil Liberties
0:02:03 > 0:02:04Union, said, when he heard Republican politicians
0:02:04 > 0:02:07expressing their sympathies, he said, "You know what is gross -
0:02:07 > 0:02:09your thoughts and prayers and Islamophobia after you created
0:02:09 > 0:02:16this anti-queer climate."
0:02:16 > 0:02:18Erm, you see, that is an unfortunate comment.
0:02:18 > 0:02:20It's also not a very intelligent comment,
0:02:20 > 0:02:23because one of the things that people on the left want to believe
0:02:23 > 0:02:26is that you can have both a total embrace of multiculturalism,
0:02:26 > 0:02:28and a total embrace of gay rights.
0:02:28 > 0:02:31And it is actually that view that is so deeply conflicted.
0:02:31 > 0:02:45I am not here to offer an easy solution or to say, go all one way.
0:02:45 > 0:02:47But in all the developed world, in Europe even more
0:02:47 > 0:02:49than the United States, what we have found is,
0:02:49 > 0:02:50diversity means diversity.
0:02:50 > 0:02:52And you discover - and Britain knows this well,
0:02:52 > 0:02:54from recent reports - you discover that when you
0:02:54 > 0:02:57have a lot of migration, you change or own society's
0:02:57 > 0:02:59attitudes towards some things you thought
0:02:59 > 0:03:06were your core values.
0:03:06 > 0:03:06All Americans...
0:03:06 > 0:03:09Americans may disagree about gay marriage, although decreasingly so.
0:03:09 > 0:03:11I don't think anybody disagrees that gay people should be
0:03:11 > 0:03:12murdered for being gay.
0:03:12 > 0:03:16That would be a pretty universal view.
0:03:16 > 0:03:18What about acknowledging that they may have been
0:03:18 > 0:03:19murdered for being gay?
0:03:19 > 0:03:22Who would deny that?
0:03:22 > 0:03:25It's not a question of denial, it's a question of just not
0:03:25 > 0:03:26mentioning it at all.
0:03:26 > 0:03:28House Speaker Paul Ryan referrred to "the victims".
0:03:28 > 0:03:30His opposite number Nancy Pelosi, the Democrat former Speaker,
0:03:30 > 0:03:32referred very specifically to the fact that they were gay.
0:03:32 > 0:03:34Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell, Republican,
0:03:34 > 0:03:39did not mention they were gay.
0:03:39 > 0:03:40His opposite number did.
0:03:40 > 0:03:42There is a very straight division between the parties,
0:03:42 > 0:03:46and I wonder why Republicans find it so difficult to use that word?
0:03:46 > 0:03:48Well, let me put it this way.
0:03:48 > 0:03:49In context of mourning these terrible losses,
0:03:49 > 0:03:53erm, if people are mourning, I just don't think it is in good
0:03:53 > 0:03:56taste to say, "I do not like the way you are mourning."
0:03:56 > 0:03:57Some of those people...
0:03:57 > 0:04:00It was Latina night at the club, so I presume many of them were
0:04:00 > 0:04:05Latino.
0:04:05 > 0:04:07Many people have not found it necessary to mention that.
0:04:07 > 0:04:10That does not mean they are grieving any less or are
0:04:10 > 0:04:11insensitive to the dead.
0:04:11 > 0:04:14I think one of the things I've advocated, one of the things
0:04:14 > 0:04:17we need to think about, not instantly, but soon,
0:04:17 > 0:04:24is some kind of appropriate memorialisation.
0:04:24 > 0:04:27The joint project from the federal government in the state of Florida.
0:04:27 > 0:04:30This is a terrible thing, and the families, I am sure it
0:04:30 > 0:04:32will get worse for them.
0:04:32 > 0:04:33Because grief does not fit immediately, it is
0:04:34 > 0:04:39shock and then grief.
0:04:39 > 0:04:41What troubles some, even Republicans, on this question,
0:04:41 > 0:04:44is that by not acknowledging it, there is a sense in which it's not
0:04:44 > 0:04:47something that needs to be said, and yet for them, it
0:04:47 > 0:04:48DOES need to be said.
0:04:48 > 0:04:54Jimmy LaSalvia, who was a Republican strategist for many years, said...
0:04:54 > 0:04:56And a big Trump supporter, I may add.
0:04:56 > 0:04:56OK, but...
0:04:56 > 0:04:58You wouldn't acknowledge that he comes from your
0:04:58 > 0:05:02shared political past?
0:05:02 > 0:05:04I would not acknowledge sharing a lot
0:05:04 > 0:05:05with Jimmy LaSalvia.
0:05:05 > 0:05:05OK.
0:05:05 > 0:05:08They ignore and reject the reality that lesbian and gay,
0:05:08 > 0:05:10bisxual, transgender people, are part of life in America today.
0:05:10 > 0:05:12He says, "Remember the Charleston black shootings,
0:05:12 > 0:05:13as you would, last year."
0:05:13 > 0:05:16He says, "GOP politicians fell over themselves to take down
0:05:16 > 0:05:17the Confederate flag after that.
0:05:17 > 0:05:20I doubt anything like that will happen with the gay club shooting."
0:05:20 > 0:05:23Look, Jimmy was an enormous Trump supporter, and he's got his own very
0:05:23 > 0:05:24complex political motives.
0:05:24 > 0:05:26And here's what I was saying...
0:05:26 > 0:05:29I think when you look at this horror, you see a lot
0:05:29 > 0:05:30of things coming together.
0:05:30 > 0:05:33There are questions about the place of gays in American society, sure.
0:05:33 > 0:05:34There are questions about migration
0:05:34 > 0:05:45and multiculturalism.
0:05:45 > 0:05:46There are questions about guns.
0:05:46 > 0:05:50And I don't like this game where you say, I'm going to reach
0:05:50 > 0:05:50into the fishbowl...
0:05:50 > 0:05:53Not the fishbowl, because that suggests it is random.
0:05:53 > 0:05:55I am going to talk about the things that bother me.
0:05:55 > 0:05:59I am not going to look at this problem as if it genuinely presented
0:05:59 > 0:06:00a question to think about.
0:06:00 > 0:06:04I'm going to approach it as if it is a chance to repeat a lot
0:06:04 > 0:06:06of slogans that I was repeating the day before this happened.
0:06:06 > 0:06:08Your views have evolved as a conservative
0:06:08 > 0:06:09and as a Republican.
0:06:09 > 0:06:12You've acknowledged it in print yourself on the question
0:06:12 > 0:06:12of gay marriage.
0:06:12 > 0:06:15I wonder if you think the party needs to move further
0:06:15 > 0:06:16on this question?
0:06:16 > 0:06:17That's already happening.
0:06:17 > 0:06:20Gay marriage has been dealt with, but in its attitude to people
0:06:20 > 0:06:22who represent perhaps a more diverse world.
0:06:22 > 0:06:25You know, there is a problem with this word diverse.
0:06:25 > 0:06:27That word assumes that all forms of differentness are
0:06:27 > 0:06:28equally compatible.
0:06:28 > 0:06:30And I think if we are going to protect the lives,
0:06:30 > 0:06:32never mind the rights, of sexual minorities,
0:06:32 > 0:06:35we will have to understand that other forms of diversity present
0:06:35 > 0:06:37real challenges to the safety and security of those people.
0:06:37 > 0:06:50As I say, more a European problem than an American problem.
0:06:50 > 0:06:52For a lot of reasons, America has been more successful,
0:06:52 > 0:06:54so far, although we shouldn't be arrogant,
0:06:54 > 0:06:57about assimilating migrant groups - but that may not always be true.
0:06:57 > 0:06:58And we shouldn't press our luck.
0:06:58 > 0:07:01For sure, we are moving towards a place of...
0:07:01 > 0:07:02Where not just...conservative parties accept sexual minorities.
0:07:02 > 0:07:04Canadian conservatives just voted at their last convention
0:07:04 > 0:07:07to accept gay marriage - that's already the law in Canada.
0:07:07 > 0:07:10And I have no doubt that within four or six years,
0:07:10 > 0:07:22that will be the case for Republicans as well.
0:07:22 > 0:07:24You suggested in an article for Atlantic magazine back
0:07:24 > 0:07:26in April that possibly, politically, conservatives might
0:07:26 > 0:07:28have been exposed by this year's election campaign -
0:07:28 > 0:07:30that the success of Donald Trump suggests that somebody
0:07:30 > 0:07:33who was almost defiantly opposed to many conservative positions,
0:07:33 > 0:07:35it suggests that actually, the conservative power base is not
0:07:35 > 0:07:36what people thought it was.
0:07:36 > 0:07:48Will that change attitudes in the party, do you think?
0:07:48 > 0:07:50Look, American political conservatism is is a collection
0:07:50 > 0:07:52of solutions to the problems of the 1970s.
0:07:52 > 0:07:53And it worked.
0:07:53 > 0:07:54We saw...
0:07:54 > 0:07:56If you have inflation, conservatives know what to do.
0:07:56 > 0:07:58If you face a challenge from the Soviet Union,
0:07:58 > 0:08:04we know what to do.
0:08:04 > 0:08:07If there's crime in the streets, conservatives know what to do.
0:08:07 > 0:08:10But if there's no inflation, no Soviet Union and crime has been
0:08:10 > 0:08:12reduced to the lowest levels in modern American history,
0:08:13 > 0:08:14we are a little at loose ends.
0:08:14 > 0:08:18And then you present us with a whole lot of new problems -
0:08:18 > 0:08:19income stagnation, problems of acculturation,
0:08:19 > 0:08:20of an increasingly diverse society.
0:08:20 > 0:08:30And old ideas, it isn't that they cease to be true -
0:08:30 > 0:08:31they cease to be relevant.
0:08:31 > 0:08:34Politics is an exam where they keep changing the questions.
0:08:34 > 0:08:40And your grandfather's answers are not going to be very helpful.
0:08:40 > 0:08:43But you've got to somehow keep on board people who still feel very
0:08:43 > 0:08:45passionately about those traditional solutions.
0:08:45 > 0:08:47Mike Huckabee was saying, if Republicans want to lose guys
0:08:47 > 0:08:49like me and a whole bunch of still God-fearing,
0:08:49 > 0:08:51Bible-believing people, then go ahead - embrace things
0:08:51 > 0:08:55like gay marriage and you will get the response that a lot of us
0:08:55 > 0:08:59will just walk away.
0:08:59 > 0:09:01Yes, but Mike Huckabee, who has endorsed Donald Trump,
0:09:01 > 0:09:02finds himself supporting the least socially conservative
0:09:02 > 0:09:03Republican ever.
0:09:03 > 0:09:05In fact, Huckabee gives the lie to that claim.
0:09:05 > 0:09:08Among the many reasons that Donald Trump is such
0:09:08 > 0:09:10a politically shattering event - this is not the worst
0:09:10 > 0:09:13of his offences, but it is maybe the most interesting...
0:09:13 > 0:09:15No politician since Gerald Ford - no Republican nominee for president
0:09:15 > 0:09:18- has been less interested in the pro-life agenda than Donald
0:09:18 > 0:09:21Trump.
0:09:21 > 0:09:30He is obviously completely uninterested in the anti-gay agenda,
0:09:30 > 0:09:33and yet he pulls up Mike Huckabee, who would have found other
0:09:33 > 0:09:35people who were 99%, but not 100% orthodox,
0:09:35 > 0:09:41too heterodox, for him.
0:09:41 > 0:09:44So, the very fact that Mike Huckabee can make his peace with Donald Trump
0:09:44 > 0:09:48shows that what Mike Huckabee just said is not a true description even
0:09:48 > 0:09:49of Mike Huckabee's actions.
0:09:49 > 0:09:52One thing you said earlier in this interview, which is a fact,
0:09:52 > 0:09:54is that violent crime in the United States is falling.
0:09:54 > 0:09:57And yet one area where the United States seems to be
0:09:57 > 0:09:59uniquely badly served is on the question of mass killings.
0:09:59 > 0:10:025% of the population, and yet it has a third
0:10:02 > 0:10:05of the mass killings - killings of more than four people
0:10:05 > 0:10:07at any one time - in the world.
0:10:07 > 0:10:11Last major attempt to restrict gun control three years ago
0:10:11 > 0:10:12foundered in the Senate.
0:10:12 > 0:10:13Why did it founder?
0:10:13 > 0:10:14Because of Republicans.
0:10:14 > 0:10:14Yeah, look...
0:10:14 > 0:10:16I am a believer in tougher gun laws.
0:10:16 > 0:10:20But I do not hold out a lot of hope that tougher gun laws would stop
0:10:20 > 0:10:21the mass killing problem.
0:10:21 > 0:10:27That's not what they are for.
0:10:27 > 0:10:28They have worked elsewhere.
0:10:28 > 0:10:29Look at Australia.
0:10:29 > 0:10:32It had four mass killings in the space of less than a decade.
0:10:32 > 0:10:34It tightened gun controls - has not had a single mass
0:10:35 > 0:10:35shooting in 20 years.
0:10:35 > 0:10:38It may just have been lucky, but one begins to think
0:10:38 > 0:10:39there's a connection.
0:10:39 > 0:10:42If you are an island nation, which Australia basically is...
0:10:42 > 0:10:43A big island.
0:10:43 > 0:10:46..With a very strong central state, and you are able to round up
0:10:46 > 0:10:48weapons that are already in people's hands, then yes.
0:10:48 > 0:10:55None of that is going to be possible in the United States.
0:10:55 > 0:10:58It would be better if the United States had
0:10:58 > 0:10:59more federal strength, in this respect...
0:10:59 > 0:11:00No, but...
0:11:00 > 0:11:02Let's use gun control to solve the problem that gun
0:11:02 > 0:11:08control can actually solve.
0:11:08 > 0:11:11Where it will make a real difference is with suicide prevention
0:11:11 > 0:11:13and the reduction in our terrible rate of lethal accidents.
0:11:13 > 0:11:17Every day there is a story about some family where a gun has
0:11:17 > 0:11:19been purchased for casual reasons, imagining that it is for
0:11:19 > 0:11:22self-defence, somebody meant to do well by his wife or his girlfriend
0:11:22 > 0:11:25and their children, he bought a gun to protect them against a probably
0:11:25 > 0:11:28imaginary danger, and then he didn't secure the gun properly,
0:11:28 > 0:11:35and one of the toddlers ends up dead.
0:11:35 > 0:11:38That is a situation where stricter laws would make a difference.
0:11:38 > 0:11:42But a determined murderer is going to be able to get weapons,
0:11:42 > 0:11:44as we saw in Paris and Norway.
0:11:44 > 0:11:46And Norway has tough gun laws.
0:11:46 > 0:11:47Sure, but Breivik, a terrible example,
0:11:47 > 0:11:49but it was pretty much an exception.
0:11:49 > 0:11:51It does not happen as routinely as in the US.
0:11:51 > 0:11:53July 2012, 12 people in a cinema in Aurora.
0:11:53 > 0:11:56August 2012 - seven people at a Sikh temple in Milwaukee.
0:11:56 > 0:11:58September 2012 - five killed in Minneapolis.
0:11:58 > 0:12:00December 2012, Sandy Hook, 20 children, six teachers,
0:12:00 > 0:12:01in one incident.
0:12:01 > 0:12:03Are you saying none of that could have
0:12:03 > 0:12:03been prevented?
0:12:03 > 0:12:04No!
0:12:04 > 0:12:05I know the numbers.
0:12:05 > 0:12:07I would say, don't hold out false hopes to people.
0:12:07 > 0:12:08As someone who advocates...
0:12:08 > 0:12:12If I were to say to Americans, listen to me, do it my way,
0:12:12 > 0:12:15and you'll see five years from now, you'll have a lot fewer mass
0:12:15 > 0:12:16shootings, I will probably be proven wrong.
0:12:16 > 0:12:25What I know I can deliver is fewer teen suicides and fewer tragic
0:12:25 > 0:12:28accidents involving small children.
0:12:28 > 0:12:31What is strange is that the Republican party seems to have
0:12:31 > 0:12:34this position that it doesn't want to move on gun control,
0:12:34 > 0:12:36and yet public opinion seems to have moved already.
0:12:36 > 0:12:38There are some interesting statistics, some research
0:12:38 > 0:12:40last summer found that 81% of Republicans and 79% of Democrats,
0:12:40 > 0:12:43this is voters, supported preventing the mentally ill from buying guns.
0:12:43 > 0:12:4685% of all voters supported background checks at gun shows
0:12:46 > 0:12:47and for private sales.
0:12:47 > 0:12:5070% backed the creation of a federal database to track sales.
0:12:50 > 0:12:56This is not controversial stuff any more.
0:12:56 > 0:12:57No, but that...
0:12:57 > 0:12:58You are choosing the wrong numbers.
0:12:58 > 0:13:01The weird thing about American life is that as crime has declined,
0:13:01 > 0:13:02so has gun ownership.
0:13:02 > 0:13:05In the early 1960s, about half of American households had a gun.
0:13:05 > 0:13:08Today only about one third - that is mostly because of
0:13:08 > 0:13:10the disappearance of long guns as fewer Americans hunt.
0:13:10 > 0:13:16Fewer Americans hunt in a year than go to the ballet.
0:13:16 > 0:13:19As hunting has gone out of style, Americans are less likely
0:13:19 > 0:13:22to own long guns, but there are more and more handguns,
0:13:22 > 0:13:26and they're in fewer and fewer hands.
0:13:26 > 0:13:29We've seen that opposition to the actual gun control measures,
0:13:29 > 0:13:31that is stronger than it used to be.
0:13:31 > 0:13:36In this way, Congress really is tracking public opinion.
0:13:36 > 0:13:38You are saying Republicans are still in contact
0:13:38 > 0:13:39with public opinion on this?
0:13:39 > 0:13:40Unfortunately, yes.
0:13:40 > 0:13:42Let me say one thing about the mentally ill.
0:13:42 > 0:13:45Obviously you want to prevent the mentally ill from getting guns,
0:13:45 > 0:13:46but who are the mentally ill?
0:13:46 > 0:13:48That is not a legal category.
0:13:48 > 0:13:50And there is no way of identifying in advance.
0:13:50 > 0:13:53The problem is that people buy guns when they are not mentally ill,
0:13:53 > 0:13:55and then something goes wrong in their lives,
0:13:55 > 0:14:02they become mentally ail and they've still got the same gun.
0:14:02 > 0:14:05OK, but you've got specific measures that were proposed three years ago.
0:14:05 > 0:14:0742 Republicans and four Democrats voted against
0:14:07 > 0:14:08expanding background checks.
0:14:08 > 0:14:1060 Senators voted against a ban on assault weapons,
0:14:10 > 0:14:13which the United States used to have for 10 years.
0:14:13 > 0:14:15And Omar Mateen was carrying an assault weapon, which allowed him
0:14:15 > 0:14:30to maximise the casualties, which a handgun would not have done.
0:14:30 > 0:14:34As the gun people will tell you - an assault weapon is a design
0:14:34 > 0:14:36category, it is not a category of firearm.
0:14:36 > 0:14:38You are saying that the law, there would be loopholes?
0:14:38 > 0:14:44Here is what I think we should do.
0:14:44 > 0:14:47I think we should do with guns what we do with driving, which is,
0:14:47 > 0:14:51between the time you decide you want a gun and when you get a gun,
0:14:51 > 0:14:53there should be a lot of paperwork and delay.
0:14:53 > 0:14:56What that would mean is, you weed out the people
0:14:56 > 0:14:57who are not good at life.
0:14:57 > 0:15:00And you eliminate the casual decision to get a gun
0:15:00 > 0:15:03because you think there may be somebody out there trying to...
0:15:03 > 0:15:06That guy who is not going to store it properly in a house
0:15:06 > 0:15:09with small children - just put some obstacles in his way.
0:15:09 > 0:15:28Meanwhile...
0:15:28 > 0:15:29But the determined murderer will alas get weapons.
0:15:29 > 0:15:32The way you stop the determined massmurderer, that is a case
0:15:32 > 0:15:35where the ban on the weapons will not help much in
0:15:35 > 0:15:39the American context, which is different from Australia.
0:15:39 > 0:15:43Others disagree.
0:15:43 > 0:15:45Senator Chris Murphy thinks that Congress has become complicit
0:15:45 > 0:15:51in these murders, because it hasn't done anything.
0:15:51 > 0:15:53When you're a politician, people want to think
0:15:53 > 0:15:55that there is a magic lever that you can pull.
0:15:55 > 0:15:58One of the great public policy successes across the developed
0:15:58 > 0:16:00world is the reduction in automobile fatalities.
0:16:00 > 0:16:02It is dramatic what has happened in the past generation.
0:16:02 > 0:16:05That is not becuase we did one magic thing, that some nefarious industry
0:16:05 > 0:16:06had been obstructing.
0:16:06 > 0:16:09Seat belts helped, true, so did the airbags, so did different
0:16:09 > 0:16:11road standards, better cars, making it more difficult
0:16:11 > 0:16:12for 17-year-olds to get drivers licenses.
0:16:12 > 0:16:14There's now typically three levels of licensing.
0:16:14 > 0:16:14Sure.
0:16:14 > 0:16:17But you can do multiple things or you can do nothing.
0:16:17 > 0:16:28And on gun control, it seems the United States has done nothing.
0:16:28 > 0:16:30And yet the country is a lot safer than it was.
0:16:30 > 0:16:33Unless you happen to be a victim of a mass shooting,
0:16:33 > 0:16:34like those people in Orlando.
0:16:34 > 0:16:35That...
0:16:35 > 0:16:37But your chance of being murdered is much less.
0:16:37 > 0:16:37There's one...
0:16:37 > 0:16:40I am sure that is consolation for the families.
0:16:40 > 0:16:42I am not offering it as a consolation, I'm
0:16:42 > 0:16:45offering it as a guide to thinking in a useful way.
0:16:45 > 0:16:47People in politics are judged not by their good intentions
0:16:47 > 0:16:49or their ability to project emotions on the camera.
0:16:49 > 0:16:52They are judged by their ability to deliver results.
0:16:52 > 0:16:54If I have something, and it makes a great speech,
0:16:54 > 0:16:58but you do it and it is not better, then it is a failure.
0:16:58 > 0:17:00Waht is your response to Jeh Johnson, the secretary
0:17:00 > 0:17:02for Homeland Security, who said on Tuesday,
0:17:02 > 0:17:04"There should be meaningful and responsible gun control.
0:17:04 > 0:17:05It is a matter of homeland security."
0:17:05 > 0:17:07Surely in that context, given how passionate Republicans
0:17:07 > 0:17:09are about securing America against terrorism,
0:17:09 > 0:17:11don't Republicans have to respond to that?
0:17:11 > 0:17:20No, they don't.
0:17:20 > 0:17:23If you have the kinds of gun control that other countries have,
0:17:23 > 0:17:26you will see, I predict, a reduction in teen suicides
0:17:26 > 0:17:28in the United States, a reduction in fatal accidents.
0:17:28 > 0:17:31But I don't know that you will see a reduction in mass shootings,
0:17:31 > 0:17:34because they are driven by a copycat element, that's for sure,
0:17:34 > 0:17:35once it's in the cultural mind.
0:17:35 > 0:17:38They are driven by the self-radicalisation on the Internet.
0:17:38 > 0:17:41And whatever you do, there will be a lot of guns around
0:17:41 > 0:17:43in the United States for a long time.
0:17:43 > 0:17:46Do you think it is a mistake of President Obama not to use
0:17:46 > 0:17:49the phrase "radical Islam"?
0:17:49 > 0:17:50No, I understand why he does it.
0:17:50 > 0:17:53I think he leans over a little too...
0:17:53 > 0:17:54Here's what is a mistake.
0:17:54 > 0:17:57This is a thing that really...
0:17:57 > 0:17:59Do you remember the case of the clock boy?
0:17:59 > 0:18:01Who made in effect a toy bomb?
0:18:01 > 0:18:04And he was not a good student as he was represented to be -
0:18:04 > 0:18:07his father was a major Sudanese politician with ambitions
0:18:07 > 0:18:11of his own, and he made a toy bomb and he brought it to school.
0:18:11 > 0:18:13The school reacted very negatively and probably excessively.
0:18:13 > 0:18:15They handcuffed him - almost certainly not necessary.
0:18:15 > 0:18:18The president then invited him to the White House and made him
0:18:18 > 0:18:20a victim of bigotry in the nation's eyes.
0:18:20 > 0:18:22When that happens, now you are the security company that
0:18:22 > 0:18:24employed the Orlando shooter, and he's muttering and fulminating
0:18:24 > 0:18:27and threatening people, and people begin to tell you,
0:18:27 > 0:18:29and you think, "Do I want to be the next villain
0:18:29 > 0:18:31of the next clock boy story?"
0:18:31 > 0:18:34I think in this time when Islamic terrorism is a real phenomenon,
0:18:34 > 0:18:36obviously involving a minority of people who are Muslim...
0:18:36 > 0:18:38Not forgetting that many, many Muslims working in national
0:18:38 > 0:18:40security and peace officering the army...
0:18:40 > 0:18:43I think you want to say to people, "If you make a mistake
0:18:43 > 0:18:46in the way of over-vigilance, we're not going to treat
0:18:46 > 0:18:54you like a bigot."
0:18:54 > 0:18:55Donald Trump, who is the presumptive leader
0:18:55 > 0:18:57of the Republican Party, has a plan...
0:18:57 > 0:18:59Presumptive presidential nominee - it's a very
0:18:59 > 0:18:59different thing.
0:18:59 > 0:19:20OK.
0:19:20 > 0:19:22Well, he's the nearest thing the party would have,
0:19:22 > 0:19:24I suppose, in the course of a presidential election campaign.
0:19:24 > 0:19:25I don't salute him.
0:19:25 > 0:19:26I take your correction.
0:19:26 > 0:19:29He said, "We are importing radical Islamic terrorism into the West
0:19:29 > 0:19:30through a failed immigration system.
0:19:30 > 0:19:33I will suspend immigration from areas of the world
0:19:33 > 0:19:35where there is a proven history of terrorism
0:19:35 > 0:19:37against the United States, against Europe or our allies,
0:19:37 > 0:19:39until we understand how to end these threats."
0:19:39 > 0:19:42I value our Belgian allies and friends and I would hate to see
0:19:42 > 0:19:44migration from Belgium cut off to the United States.
0:19:44 > 0:19:47Look, where do people like Donald Trump come from?
0:19:47 > 0:19:49I have zero sympathy for him and the outrageous and obnoxious
0:19:50 > 0:19:51and foolish things he says.
0:19:51 > 0:19:54But he is a product also of extreme euphemism on the other side.
0:19:54 > 0:19:55When responsible leaders...
0:19:55 > 0:19:56So it is the Democrats' fault?
0:19:56 > 0:19:58No, it is not a partisan point.
0:19:58 > 0:20:00This is not just an American problem.
0:20:00 > 0:20:02When responsible leaders will not deal with real problems
0:20:02 > 0:20:03in responsible ways.
0:20:03 > 0:20:04You know, if anybody's to blame...
0:20:04 > 0:20:07Angela Merkel - when you do things like that, when you say,
0:20:07 > 0:20:09"Nobody but the fascists will address this problem,"
0:20:09 > 0:20:11the voters will say, "Who are these fascists
0:20:11 > 0:20:14of whom you speak, and what is their phone number?"
0:20:14 > 0:20:16It is the job of responsible leaders to deny the issues
0:20:16 > 0:20:19to the Donald Trumps of the world, because otherwise you get
0:20:19 > 0:20:22the Donald Trumps of the world, because the problems are real.
0:20:22 > 0:20:24You wrote recently that to regain respect after their humiliation
0:20:24 > 0:20:27by Trump, those who regard themselves as true conservatives
0:20:27 > 0:20:59will have to mount a show of force - how do they do that?
0:20:59 > 0:21:01Well, true conservatives here is a term of art.
0:21:01 > 0:21:04I put the capital C and the capital T.
0:21:04 > 0:21:04That is...
0:21:04 > 0:21:07Those people who are always telling you how ideologically pure they are.
0:21:07 > 0:21:09One thing that there was a lot of talk about,
0:21:09 > 0:21:13and I'm surprised it did not happen, was that there would be
0:21:13 > 0:21:14an ideologically pure conservative primary challenge,
0:21:14 > 0:21:17or independent run, with an idea of knocking away some electoral
0:21:17 > 0:21:19votes from Donald Trump, to punish the party -
0:21:19 > 0:21:20but that has not happened.
0:21:20 > 0:21:25And...
0:21:25 > 0:21:27So that has not happened - what CAN happen?
0:21:27 > 0:21:29You have said YOU can't support him.
0:21:29 > 0:21:31I think there will be some mayhem at the convention,
0:21:31 > 0:21:34some attempt to write some things into the Republican platform that
0:21:34 > 0:21:36Trump will find embarrassing, including such things as,
0:21:36 > 0:21:39if you get public money for your campaign, you can't use it
0:21:39 > 0:21:41to repay the loans on your campaign.
0:21:41 > 0:21:43I think that may be about to happen.
0:21:43 > 0:21:46He did not fund it, he lent $30 million to the campaign,
0:21:46 > 0:21:47which he can ill afford.
0:21:47 > 0:21:47Fine.
0:21:47 > 0:21:50But he would still be the Republican candidate for president.
0:21:50 > 0:21:50He would.
0:21:50 > 0:21:51So what happens now?
0:21:51 > 0:21:53He goes on to lose pretty badly.
0:21:53 > 0:21:56And what happens to people like you - can you vote for him?
0:21:56 > 0:21:58Can I vote for hiom?
0:21:58 > 0:21:59No, I won't vote for him.
0:21:59 > 0:22:01So, do you vote for Hillary?
0:22:01 > 0:22:04Er, who exactly I vote for - I have to think about.
0:22:04 > 0:22:05How exactly I express...
0:22:05 > 0:22:07I mean, the election is not up to me.
0:22:07 > 0:22:10But it is up to hundreds of thousands of people like you.
0:22:10 > 0:22:13Erm, so, I will have to do some soul searching as to exactly how
0:22:13 > 0:22:15on the ballot I express my view.
0:22:15 > 0:22:16But I've been...
0:22:16 > 0:22:19Trouble is, if you do anything but vote for Hillary Clinton,
0:22:19 > 0:22:22all you do is make it easier for him to get in.
0:22:22 > 0:22:23An abstention effectively is meaningless.
0:22:23 > 0:22:25I live in the District of Columbia, so...
0:22:25 > 0:22:27It's going to be pretty darn unanimous in my...
0:22:27 > 0:22:30You know, our electoral votes, it is a wholly expressive act.
0:22:30 > 0:22:32But the dilemma facing people like you in other
0:22:32 > 0:22:33states is a real one.
0:22:33 > 0:22:37DC is not treated like a state - in the States of the Union
0:22:37 > 0:22:38of the United States.
0:22:38 > 0:22:41Because our elections are so long, we have a lot of time to think
0:22:41 > 0:22:45about what is the right thing to do, and have a lot of
0:22:45 > 0:22:46time to express it.
0:22:46 > 0:22:49But I have been very clear, the danger of Donald Trump is not
0:22:49 > 0:22:52just, he would be a bad president, not just that he seems not
0:22:52 > 0:22:55to have the impulse control or the understanding of American
0:22:55 > 0:22:55institutions necessary.
0:22:55 > 0:22:57But the danger is, because in a weird way
0:22:57 > 0:23:00on the issues, to the flimsy, minimal extent he cares
0:23:00 > 0:23:03about issues, because he has been more moderate than a lot
0:23:03 > 0:23:05of the previous leaders, because he's not an ideological
0:23:05 > 0:23:08conservative, if he fails as badly as it looks like he will,
0:23:08 > 0:23:11he will hurt the Republican Party and hurt the chances of reform.
0:23:11 > 0:23:13One thing that is very likely to happen -
0:23:13 > 0:23:16I do not predict this, but it is a major possibility -
0:23:16 > 0:23:19is that Republicans will say, "This shows we need to be
0:23:19 > 0:23:21even more doctrinaire.
0:23:21 > 0:23:24We need to change our issues stance and find a responsible person.
0:23:24 > 0:23:27In the end, would Hillary Clinton be a better president or a less worse
0:23:27 > 0:23:28president than Donald Trump?
0:23:28 > 0:23:30I am pretty confident she would not unintentionally start
0:23:30 > 0:23:33a nuclear war - so that's a big thing right there.
0:23:33 > 0:23:35But the problems with Hillary Clinton are quite serious.
0:23:35 > 0:23:38There is the problem of integrity, of the way the Clinton
0:23:38 > 0:23:39people have raised money.
0:23:39 > 0:23:41They have in her own...
0:23:41 > 0:23:43It is maybe a less extreme problem than Donald Trump,
0:23:43 > 0:23:46but Bill and Hillary Clinton together have really hacked at some
0:23:46 > 0:23:48of the foundational ideas of how American politicians should behave,
0:23:48 > 0:23:51how they raise money, what kinds of rewards are acceptable
0:23:51 > 0:23:52to the people who give you money.
0:23:52 > 0:23:56They are a very disturbing group, too, and that is why this
0:23:56 > 0:24:14is all so agonising.
0:24:14 > 0:24:19David Frum, thank you very much for being
0:24:19 > 0:24:20with us on HARDtalk.
0:24:20 > 0:24:43Thank you.