:00:00. > :00:11.So those are the latest BBC News headlines. Now it is time for
:00:12. > :00:15.President Trump or President Clinton?
:00:16. > :00:18.It's still a month until the Republican and Democrat parties
:00:19. > :00:21.formally nominate their candidates, but that is all but certain to be
:00:22. > :00:22.the choice for Americans in November.
:00:23. > :00:27.My guest on HARDtalk is Frank Luntz, one of the best known pollsters
:00:28. > :00:32.A Republican, he has spent his career listening to how
:00:33. > :00:34.Americans think and feel about politics and politicians.
:00:35. > :00:39.He says voters are angrier than ever before and the fracturing of both
:00:40. > :00:45.the right and left in American politics means "any
:00:46. > :01:23.There is a 'dump Trump' campaign that claims to be gaining followers
:01:24. > :01:30.Do you think it is still possible that Donald Trump might not be
:01:31. > :01:34.I don't think it's possible, and there are three reasons.
:01:35. > :01:37.He won the most votes and he won the most by far.
:01:38. > :01:44.And this is not a guy who takes criticism lightly.
:01:45. > :01:47.For better or worse, he does not back down.
:01:48. > :01:52.He is determined and he has won the votes and he has won the states
:01:53. > :01:56.While there will be fussing, because that is the way American
:01:57. > :01:59.politics is, he is the nominee, Hillary Clinton is the nominee,
:02:00. > :02:03.and we will have the ugliest, meanest, most vicious campaign
:02:04. > :02:09.in the modern history of American politics.
:02:10. > :02:11.But even before that, so we get to the convention,
:02:12. > :02:17.there are those who say having Trump as the Republican candidate
:02:18. > :02:20.will mean it is "The end of our party".
:02:21. > :02:22.Republicans talking of a moral obligation to stop him.
:02:23. > :02:26.Even the house speaker saying, "The last thing I would do is tell
:02:27. > :02:28.anybody to do something contrary to their conscience,"
:02:29. > :02:32.in other words, you may feel free to vote as you like rather
:02:33. > :02:36.We have never had an election like this.
:02:37. > :02:40.We have never had so many Democrats abandon someone who was so clearly
:02:41. > :02:44.the front-runner as what happened with Hillary Clinton.
:02:45. > :02:47.We have never had Republicans be so acrimonious towards each other.
:02:48. > :02:50.It is happening in both parties, but it stretches out a bit
:02:51. > :02:59.It is no different in Britain, France, Italy, Austria.
:03:00. > :03:02.We are electing people we never dreamed would lead our countries
:03:03. > :03:09.We are saying things in politics we never expected to say,
:03:10. > :03:12.and the problem is, frankly, we have lost our civility.
:03:13. > :03:14.We have lost our respect, the decency politics
:03:15. > :03:19.Yes, it has always been a rough and tumble world,
:03:20. > :03:22.but at least at the end of the day you could compromise
:03:23. > :03:31.Hillary Clinton has the numbers but still doesn't have
:03:32. > :03:35.Bernie Sanders rowing in behind her yet.
:03:36. > :03:38.Does she need to do something to bring him onside and make
:03:39. > :03:42.The key for him is not about personality,
:03:43. > :03:47.As someone who does not agree with what he says,
:03:48. > :03:51.I did enjoy listening to him say it, because it was policy-oriented
:03:52. > :03:54.rather than this viciousness you have seen on the Republican side.
:03:55. > :03:59.The Democratic party is not the same party that existed
:04:00. > :04:04.It is much more liberal and progressive.
:04:05. > :04:07.Much more likely to support higher taxes, more spending,
:04:08. > :04:10.and for her, I think she can't move to the centre because the grassroots
:04:11. > :04:21.The problem is will any of those people vote for Donald Trump?
:04:22. > :04:27.Something most political observers don't realise.
:04:28. > :04:29.This is not just about Republican or Democrat,
:04:30. > :04:35.This is also about change versus status quo, and how much
:04:36. > :04:39.And once again, in all of these European countries,
:04:40. > :04:42.and being led by America, there is a segment that rejects
:04:43. > :04:47.politics as usual and rejects the same traditional politicians,
:04:48. > :04:49.and they want to vote for the most extreme candidate,
:04:50. > :05:00.I think 15% of the Sanders people will vote for Donald Trump.
:05:01. > :05:04.People who move from Bernie Sanders...
:05:05. > :05:07.Because he is the most radical candidate.
:05:08. > :05:17.However, you will see some Republicans who have never voted
:05:18. > :05:18.Democrat before voting for Hillary Clinton this
:05:19. > :05:27.You talk about any outcome is possible, and there
:05:28. > :05:29.is an argument it is in your interests.
:05:30. > :05:35.You've seen The Godfather III - "Just when I think I'm out,
:05:36. > :05:42.OK, you may not be being paid by a candidate,
:05:43. > :05:44.but it is your business, the predictability.
:05:45. > :05:47.You are asked to go on television programmes to chart a way
:05:48. > :05:56.What I want to ask is if we have Clinton versus Trump, she has a
:05:57. > :06:05.We saw Doald Trump down by 12-15 points six weeks ago.
:06:06. > :06:08.Then when he clearly got the nomination, he went to dead even
:06:09. > :06:17.You have 40% definitely voting for him,
:06:18. > :06:33.For all of you out there, in whatever language you speak,
:06:34. > :06:39.only in those states who can go either direction.
:06:40. > :06:43.In reality, they are fighting over about 4% of the vote.
:06:44. > :06:48.We will come back to what they need to do on that battleground.
:06:49. > :06:50.But one of the things I know you have polled
:06:51. > :06:55.There are people who love Trump or Clinton, but there are also
:06:56. > :07:03.And they are the people who actually say I will not vote
:07:04. > :07:11.And these are the none-of-the-above voters.
:07:12. > :07:17.Demographically, they are much younger and 2-1 female.
:07:18. > :07:19.Attitudinally, they preferred Mitt Romney over Barack Obama
:07:20. > :07:23.and give the Republicans better numbers.
:07:24. > :07:25.How they look, you think they are Democrats.
:07:26. > :07:26.How they speak, you think they're Republicans.
:07:27. > :07:31.I want to ask you about those two candidates.
:07:32. > :07:37.You talk about the favourable versus unfavourable.
:07:38. > :07:40.Donald Trump's negative ratings are the highest of any candidate...
:07:41. > :07:48.Malaria has a higher favourability rating in some places than Donald
:07:49. > :07:54.But Hillary Clinton has that same, just a hair less, dislike.
:07:55. > :07:58.In the end, this is the saddest thing of all, the American people
:07:59. > :08:07.will vote for the candidate who they distrust the least.
:08:08. > :08:14.This is not just an election of the least evil of the two.
:08:15. > :08:16.The public has decided they don't trust anyone.
:08:17. > :08:21.So when you say this is actually about who they distrust the most,
:08:22. > :08:26.I have to tell you, first and foremost,
:08:27. > :08:35.However people take it at home, I'm American.
:08:36. > :08:38.I'm watching my country getting torn apart.
:08:39. > :08:42.I've seen violence take place in other countries
:08:43. > :08:46.I'm scared to death it will happen in America.
:08:47. > :08:54.People are going there not to be heard, not just to disrupt,
:08:55. > :09:03.Explain something to those of us outside the States who can see
:09:04. > :09:05.Donald Trump almost deliberately setting out to offend.
:09:06. > :09:17.But we don't see that from Hillary Clinton.
:09:18. > :09:21.They don't go to Democratic rallies and throw chairs and disrupt.
:09:22. > :09:27.They don't go yelling and screaming and disrupting.
:09:28. > :09:29.All of the disruptions are on the left!
:09:30. > :09:35.But he is saying things that are offensive.
:09:36. > :09:39.I will acknowledge something I haven't before.
:09:40. > :09:44.I initially felt Donald Trump was responsible for the protests.
:09:45. > :09:47.I initially felt what he was saying was causing the problem until I went
:09:48. > :09:50.The people outside were pushing people around, throwing stuff,
:09:51. > :09:58.It wasn't the Trump people or the Sanders people.
:09:59. > :10:03.We have an organisation in America called MoveOn.org.
:10:04. > :10:07.These are professional protesters who want to disrupt
:10:08. > :10:11.They are the ones who are responsible.
:10:12. > :10:21.He has said things that are impossible to defend, yes.
:10:22. > :10:35.If you say what he has said about Muslims,
:10:36. > :10:42.A lot of people outside America can't understand why
:10:43. > :10:50.Number one, she reads everything from the teleprompter.
:10:51. > :10:54.There is nothing new or original about her.
:10:55. > :11:00.Do you say what you mean and mean what you say and do
:11:01. > :11:03.Has she told the truth about the Clinton Initiative,
:11:04. > :11:06.or Benghazi, or about campaign financing and the money
:11:07. > :11:15.The public looks at her and says, "I don't trust you".
:11:16. > :11:17.And number three, they feel like she doesn't understand
:11:18. > :11:20.the day-to-day concerns that they have, and they believe
:11:21. > :11:22.Trump, even though he is a billionaire, does.
:11:23. > :11:24.All of those things you could say of many other politicians.
:11:25. > :11:27.Some would say of any other politicians, yet
:11:28. > :11:49.There seems to be something where she is more hated.
:11:50. > :11:53.She may have higher positive records, but she is more hated.
:11:54. > :11:56.That is a strange thing for those outside the States to understand.
:11:57. > :11:59.They want to look you straight in the eye and know you mean
:12:00. > :12:04.This is someone they believe says what the polls tell her to say.
:12:05. > :12:09.We have a show called Saturday Night Live and they have
:12:10. > :12:13.sketches of her becoming Bernie Sanders because she is taking
:12:14. > :12:17.After 25 years in American politics, you would think you would
:12:18. > :12:25.Let's turn to the battleground itself.
:12:26. > :12:28.It's eight or nine states they are scrapping over.
:12:29. > :12:31.Let's think about who they are voting for.
:12:32. > :12:36.It's not going to be Muslims, given what Donald Trump says
:12:37. > :12:39.about Muslims and wanting to stop them coming into the country -
:12:40. > :12:43.African-American vote, typically goes Democrat,
:12:44. > :12:49.I will give you the three segments she would do better
:12:50. > :12:54.Even though there is so much in Bernie Sanders' camp,
:12:55. > :12:56.they don't like Donald Trump's language or his tone.
:12:57. > :13:03.You are never supposed to draw an age line,
:13:04. > :13:09.women under the age of 40, Trump is doing worse than any
:13:10. > :13:14.And then Latinos, who are making up a bigger percentage in central
:13:15. > :13:19.states like Nevada, Colorado and Florida.
:13:20. > :13:23.His insistence on supporting a wall, his communication
:13:24. > :13:33.That is where she is doing better than a typical Democrat would do.
:13:34. > :13:47.And where Donald Trump is doing better is class voters -
:13:48. > :13:49.And where Donald Trump is doing better is WORKING class voters -
:13:50. > :13:52.people below the average income who do not have a college education,
:13:53. > :13:55.Republicans have always done badly among them.
:13:56. > :13:57.It's similar to here, between Labour and Conservative.
:13:58. > :14:00.Donald Trump is getting those people and no Republican ever has.
:14:01. > :14:02.This is the blue wall, which is a term coined
:14:03. > :14:05.by the journalist Ronald Brownstein, which refers to 18 states which have
:14:06. > :14:12.And Trump, in a state like Pennsylvania, which is very
:14:13. > :14:14.below the average in terms of economic recovery,
:14:15. > :14:19.There are millions of Americans who have never voted Republican
:14:20. > :14:21.before but will vote for him because he is their voice -
:14:22. > :14:23.his anger is their anger, and they feel betrayal
:14:24. > :14:28.that Washington and Wall Street not only let them down but took
:14:29. > :14:32.They benefited, and these voters were hurt, and Donald Trump
:14:33. > :14:41.He has those three weaknesses and one strength.
:14:42. > :14:45.On betrayal and what he says, what they are responding to,
:14:46. > :14:49.you sit with focus groups to see how they respond.
:14:50. > :15:02.You have no commercials here and that's a blessing.
:15:03. > :15:04.I can't get the commercial break in my focus groups.
:15:05. > :15:06.In my ear they're telling me, "End the segment -
:15:07. > :15:10.I can't stop them yelling at each other.
:15:11. > :15:12.Once they start talking about politics they won't stop.
:15:13. > :15:14.The rudeness and incivility is so horrible.
:15:15. > :15:17.In a way that it hasn't been before, in your focus groups?
:15:18. > :15:21.I've been doing this for 25-30 years, forever.
:15:22. > :15:24.So when Donald Trump says, well, perhaps whether it's about Mexico
:15:25. > :15:27.sends its people, they're not the best, they're sending people
:15:28. > :15:29.with problems, bringing drugs, bringing crime, they're rapists.
:15:30. > :15:31.If Hillary Clinton were a man I don't think
:15:32. > :15:43.Whether it's Republicans or Democrats, how do people respond?
:15:44. > :15:45.There's a segment of people that want politicians to look them
:15:46. > :15:49.straight in the eye and tell them exactly how they think and feel,
:15:50. > :15:51.even if they disagree with it, and Donald Trump is appealing
:15:52. > :15:56.There is a segment, about 10-15%, among the Republican Party
:15:57. > :16:00.that doesn't like it because they want to be
:16:01. > :16:01.representative of all people and they don't
:16:02. > :16:05.On the Democratic side, they are desperate for
:16:06. > :16:08.Hillary Clinton to step up onto the podium and just say
:16:09. > :16:11.what she thinks and acknowledge that she hasn't been perfect.
:16:12. > :16:15.So we do testing, and again I'm going to do this on the show,
:16:16. > :16:18.I've never talked about this, I think one of the big segments
:16:19. > :16:22.will be an interview that she did on network television where she says
:16:23. > :16:35.You don't make an effort, you just do or don't.
:16:36. > :16:38.So she doesn't understand the damaging nature of that.
:16:39. > :16:44.It isn't my job to trust either, my job is to tell
:16:45. > :16:48.Because Donald Trump has said many things.
:16:49. > :16:51.Does he stay by all the things that he has campaigned on?
:16:52. > :16:56.No, he changes his positions on issues like minimum wage,
:16:57. > :17:03.There are too many occasions where he has changed his positions
:17:04. > :17:06.and too many occasions where she hasn't told us
:17:07. > :17:19.My advice, and I will do both because we want to keep this
:17:20. > :17:21.balance, my determination is to instil a sense of civility
:17:22. > :17:24.where there is none and keep it balanced where there is none.
:17:25. > :17:29.For him, he has to tell people exactly what he will do on day one.
:17:30. > :17:35.What is the first thing you will do as president?
:17:36. > :17:38.What is the law, what is the regulation, what exactly
:17:39. > :17:43.He has to do it because he has no political background,
:17:44. > :17:47.he comes as a businessman - so we have the right to know.
:17:48. > :17:49.Number two is we should know who he will appoint.
:17:50. > :17:52.Because his voters tell me that they assume he will put
:17:53. > :17:53.brilliant people around him, that's how
:17:54. > :17:57.Not political people, people who know how to do their jobs.
:17:58. > :18:01.Those are the two things he needs to do.
:18:02. > :18:03.In Hillary Clinton's case, because she has such a bad
:18:04. > :18:07.she needs to demonstrate whether she can work with Congress
:18:08. > :18:16.I'm not convinced that either of them can work with anybody.
:18:17. > :18:22.I can't believe my country is in this situation.
:18:23. > :18:26.You are at the centre of it and you have been accused of bias,
:18:27. > :18:29.but bias towards Marco Rubio, who you have worked for in the past
:18:30. > :18:32.and who has paid you hundreds of thousands of dollars.
:18:33. > :18:33.I work for seven of these candidates.
:18:34. > :18:40.Trump accused you very early on in the campaign,
:18:41. > :18:42.after the first debate, you said that he had...
:18:43. > :18:48.Referred to him guaranteeing the destruction of his campaign.
:18:49. > :18:51.You called him wrong and Trump called you on it and said
:18:52. > :19:00.I am a clown, you can see how I'm dressed,
:19:01. > :19:03.and I am a slob, the tie isn't perfect, but I'm not an idiot.
:19:04. > :19:06.I did not get acknowledged by Oxford University at the age
:19:07. > :19:14.By September I realised and I went to so many political people to say,
:19:15. > :19:23.We all have the right to make a mistake, the question
:19:24. > :19:28.When he answered that question about women and Megyn Kelly
:19:29. > :19:30.challenged him on it he turned it into a question
:19:31. > :19:34.of political correctness, that's brilliant.
:19:35. > :19:41.I would never talk about who I vote for,
:19:42. > :19:43.ever, because that automatically colours everything I do.
:19:44. > :19:48.It's not an appropriate question for someone who does what we do.
:19:49. > :19:53.My own opinions, with the exception of civility, don't actually matter.
:19:54. > :19:56.If Marco Rubio was the nominee would you have worked for him?
:19:57. > :20:00.No, because I love bringing people together around tables like this.
:20:01. > :20:04.I love conversations where I get to give and take.
:20:05. > :20:07.You said you were finding it more difficult.
:20:08. > :20:10.Are you still loving it, despite the...
:20:11. > :20:14.You have no idea how depressed, not that anyone cares,
:20:15. > :20:17.but please understand the system isn't broken,
:20:18. > :20:25.And I don't necessarily believe that it can recover itself.
:20:26. > :20:31.I studied history at university and you can't show me an example
:20:32. > :20:35.of a country that gets into the situation that the US
:20:36. > :20:38.is in and then finds a way to come out of it.
:20:39. > :20:41.When you make the commitments that it has made in budgets,
:20:42. > :20:43.in spending, when you have a government
:20:44. > :20:47.that is so little trusted and an economic system...
:20:48. > :20:50.We did a survey for Snapchat among 18 and 29-year-olds.
:20:51. > :20:52.A majority now think socialism is the best
:20:53. > :20:58.We are, as a country and as a system, we are broken
:20:59. > :21:03.You did a profile, or the Atlantic did one of you in 2014
:21:04. > :21:05.when you sounded so disillusioned with politics.
:21:06. > :21:11.I wanted to ask you, you have written, "It's not
:21:12. > :21:17.And you wrote a book, 'What Americans Really Want'.
:21:18. > :21:23.There is an argument that you have spent years telling politicians,
:21:24. > :21:31.So the politicians say it and then when they don't deliver,
:21:32. > :21:34.which they arguably can't, funnily enough the voters get angry.
:21:35. > :21:36.And it's the responsibility of the politicians and the people
:21:37. > :21:39.who advise them to not only know what's possible but to know
:21:40. > :21:43.what could be done with the right kind of leadership.
:21:44. > :21:46.I have never advised a politician to say anything that
:21:47. > :21:54.I never advised them to change position on an issue.
:21:55. > :21:58.In fact, one of the things I have been trying to clarify is that I do
:21:59. > :22:01.think politics is too negative and I think you find what's wrong
:22:02. > :22:05.with our opponents and go with that rather than focusing on what's right
:22:06. > :22:11.The essence of good politics is good communication.
:22:12. > :22:18.Based around fundamental philosophy and a commitment to principles that
:22:19. > :22:24.accept that you can make a mistake, but you have to fix it,
:22:25. > :22:28.and the most important value is accountability and admit
:22:29. > :22:30.when you get it wrong, as I did with Donald Trump
:22:31. > :22:34.in August, and you can't just plan for today,
:22:35. > :22:39.So many interviews on shows like this are confrontational
:22:40. > :22:42.because you're trying to get them to do
:22:43. > :22:45.You're trying to get them to say, "I messed up".
:22:46. > :22:49.It's the advice I gave Hillary Clinton.
:22:50. > :22:52.Admit you made a mistake in Benghazi, admit that your reset
:22:53. > :22:56.with Putin didn't work, admit that what happens
:22:57. > :22:58.and what has happened in Syria is wrong.
:22:59. > :23:01.And then say, and this is what I have learnt and this
:23:02. > :23:08.In May you wrote, "I'm fearful of expressing my concern
:23:09. > :23:10.publicly about the poison and toxicity of American politics.
:23:11. > :23:17.Not for my safety, for my business relationships.
:23:18. > :23:26.Also for people taking advantage, for people using it...
:23:27. > :23:41.The inability of people to connect to each other,
:23:42. > :23:43.to work out their differences is destroying the body politic that
:23:44. > :23:46.for the last 240 years has been essential in moving
:23:47. > :24:02.If you want to understand the core of the challenges they face
:24:03. > :24:06.emotionally and intellectually, it is that for the first four
:24:07. > :24:09.decades of my life I could find a solution and a way out.
:24:10. > :24:12.For the first time in my professional life I don't know.
:24:13. > :24:17.Frank Luntz, thank you for coming on HARDtalk.
:24:18. > :24:50.Hello there. For those of you suffering with the storms over the
:24:51. > :24:51.last