:00:00. > :00:08.Welcome to HARDtalk, I'm Stephen Sackur.
:00:09. > :00:11.What impact will the election of Donald Trump have
:00:12. > :00:17.Judging from the expressions of alarm coming from Eastern Europe,
:00:18. > :00:22.it could tilt the balance of power decisively in favour of Russia
:00:23. > :00:27.as regional tensions rise, but is that just scaremongering?
:00:28. > :00:31.My guest today is Lithuania's Foreign Minister, Linas Linkevicius,
:00:32. > :00:35.who recently described himself as very afraid
:00:36. > :01:09.Linas Linkevicius, welcome to HARDtalk.
:01:10. > :01:13.Just a few days ago, you did something really extraordinary.
:01:14. > :01:19.You told your own people that you were feeling very afraid.
:01:20. > :01:24.Let's accomplish the sentence to the end because there is no
:01:25. > :01:30.reason to go to the extremes, to be panicked or to be relaxed.
:01:31. > :01:33.We should find some middle approach, I believe.
:01:34. > :01:36.Very afraid because of Russia's intentions, you said?
:01:37. > :01:40.You said that, over the next couple of months, you feared.
:01:41. > :01:46.To be precise, I was talking about the period before I assume
:01:47. > :01:51.responsibilities, end of January, much time to go.
:01:52. > :01:53.I was talking about that sensitive period, and we should be
:01:54. > :01:59.You said that the Russians may "step up aggression.
:02:00. > :02:04."Russia is not a superpower, it is a superproblem."
:02:05. > :02:07.Yes, indeed, because the GDP of Russia is less than Italy
:02:08. > :02:11.They do have nuclear weapons, unfortunately
:02:12. > :02:16.But the rest is very dangerous when they are testing,
:02:17. > :02:20.probing, testing reactions, whether somebody will do
:02:21. > :02:24.something at all if something is happening in the world.
:02:25. > :02:28.And this period of uncertainty is really a period for testing,
:02:29. > :02:31.for all of us, of our leadership, of our resilience,
:02:32. > :02:35.I was afraid that something would happen in the
:02:36. > :02:39.Aleppo will be smashed to the ground, for
:02:40. > :02:44.I think, today, we are not going to talk so much
:02:45. > :02:48.We are going to talk about what you fear might happen
:02:49. > :02:54.We are living on the continent, which is also surrounded
:02:55. > :03:00.You can either seek to calm situations down or you can stoke
:03:01. > :03:05.the flames of attention and potential conflict.
:03:06. > :03:07.It just strikes me as odd that your government,
:03:08. > :03:10.and I'm just looking at the record of the recent past, you've
:03:11. > :03:13.reintroduced military conscription, you produced a pretty amazing
:03:14. > :03:18.pamphlet which advises the civilian population on what to do in terms
:03:19. > :03:21.of an invasion from an enemy, and one can only assume
:03:22. > :03:25.You've also launched a telephone hotline for citizens
:03:26. > :03:29.to report on anyone they suspect of being a spy.
:03:30. > :03:41.Look, I know these emotions are important, but it's
:03:42. > :03:46.very important, really, to find this middle position,
:03:47. > :03:49.and we shouldn't scare our people more than is needed.
:03:50. > :03:53.And to do ourselves what we have to do.
:03:54. > :03:56.When we are talking that Nato must remain capable,
:03:57. > :03:59.must react to the current challenges, and it's done,
:04:00. > :04:03.by the way, it's in the process, decisions which were taken in Wales
:04:04. > :04:07.and later, Warsaw, being implemented, and we are very
:04:08. > :04:09.happy with the process, regardless of the noise
:04:10. > :04:14.But while we are expecting that Nato will deliver,
:04:15. > :04:18.So what you mentioned, conscripts to the Army,
:04:19. > :04:21.I was the former Defence Minister and, frankly, I was never in favour
:04:22. > :04:24.of abolishing conscripts, but now we're back to that.
:04:25. > :04:27.Increasing defence spending, we are criticised even by President
:04:28. > :04:35.It's legitimate criticism, by the way, but we will give no
:04:36. > :04:39.We will do that and we are that doing already, and the dynamics
:04:40. > :04:44.So we are doing what we have to do ourselves.
:04:45. > :04:49.I was going to save it for a while and get to it later
:04:50. > :04:53.It's pretty extraordinary as you are telling your own people,
:04:54. > :04:55.family by family, that they should prepare for the possibility
:04:56. > :04:58.of an invasion, you are telling them to look out for spies at home,
:04:59. > :05:03.but your government doesn't even pay the Nato threshold of 2% of GDP
:05:04. > :05:11.Yes, I agree, so why is it not a fact which we have now?
:05:12. > :05:15.We are paying, our dynamics have increased the best among Nato.
:05:16. > :05:20.We are paying 1.8% and, by 2018, it will be 2%.
:05:21. > :05:24.But it makes it seem like you are crying wolf a little bit.
:05:25. > :05:26.You do all of this stuff, telling your own people
:05:27. > :05:29.they are in grave danger, but you don't even get serious
:05:30. > :05:31.enough to spend 2% of GDP on defence!
:05:32. > :05:35.You would be right if you would criticise me some years ago
:05:36. > :05:38.but you are not quite correct because we are talking about now,
:05:39. > :05:40.and this is commitment shared by all political parties,
:05:41. > :05:45.it's sustainable and really no reason for whomever
:05:46. > :05:50.We have, all Europeans, we have to be serious on this,
:05:51. > :05:54.and defence spending, as you know, as you said
:05:55. > :06:04.Fulfilling the threshold, that's the point.
:06:05. > :06:08.We will get back to that later on but at the heart of all of this
:06:09. > :06:10.is your contention that Vladimir Putin represents a real
:06:11. > :06:17.That would be not correct, if we talk just about our region.
:06:18. > :06:21.I think he represents a threat to all the world.
:06:22. > :06:23.But I want to know what is your specific evidence?
:06:24. > :06:27.Because I'm very mindful that Moscow responds to the sorts
:06:28. > :06:30.of things you say by saying, you've got this is the completely
:06:31. > :06:35.We, in Russia, are responding to Nato expansionism,
:06:36. > :06:40.Nato is putting more and more troops on our western flank,
:06:41. > :06:43.Nato is putting elite forces into exercises,
:06:44. > :06:46.unprecedented in the history of the North Atlantic
:06:47. > :06:49.Treaty Organisation, right on our border,
:06:50. > :06:52.it's Nato that's flexing its muscle, not us.
:06:53. > :06:55.This is a very good trick for their propaganda.
:06:56. > :07:01.They are very gifted in accusing others about what they are doing
:07:02. > :07:09.And those who are experts and, knowing the situation more
:07:10. > :07:12.precisely, they know that it's nothing even to compare when we're
:07:13. > :07:14.talking about the number of troops on the border, jets,
:07:15. > :07:19.activity in the vicinity of our airspace or territorial
:07:20. > :07:24.waters number of snap exercises or concentration
:07:25. > :07:30.of new weapons or modernised jets, nothing by far to compare.
:07:31. > :07:33.You talk about the missiles, nuclear capable missiles
:07:34. > :07:35.put into Kaliningrad, obviously very close
:07:36. > :07:41.But the point is, the Russians say, we see what Nato's up to.
:07:42. > :07:44.There were 4000 troops in Lithuania on the Operation Iron Sword
:07:45. > :07:51.I just went to Poland earlier this year, spoke to the US
:07:52. > :07:55.He was telling me about all the preparations they are making
:07:56. > :07:59.to repel a Russian attack with vast numbers of troops and
:08:00. > :08:04.Nato is making these plans right on Russia's border.
:08:05. > :08:11.What's Vladimir Putin supposed to do?
:08:12. > :08:23.He says that nothing to compare. We talk about numbers, frequency of
:08:24. > :08:28.exercises. They are accusing others that they have to use these
:08:29. > :08:32.responsive measures but in fact we are using that. But we will not
:08:33. > :08:37.escalate. But at the same time, no one should doubt that we will make
:08:38. > :08:43.sure our security is guaranteed. Everything we have talked about has
:08:44. > :08:49.been unfolding over months and years. The Russian intervention in
:08:50. > :08:54.Ukraine was a key moment for you. But the key new element that we have
:08:55. > :08:59.to wrestle with the day is the election of Donald Trump and the
:09:00. > :09:05.United States. How rattled or shocked or disappointed with you by
:09:06. > :09:10.the US election result? There is no reason to be shoptalk disappointed,
:09:11. > :09:15.we should face reality and respect the decisions of Americans. But you
:09:16. > :09:18.did not want Trump to win because he has made it plain he has an
:09:19. > :09:23.admiration for Vladimir Putin, he wants to work much more closely with
:09:24. > :09:28.him, and his intention and priority is to work with the Russians on
:09:29. > :09:34.counterterror and not get so worked up about what Russia is doing in
:09:35. > :09:41.your region. Let's not talk about everything at once but fragments. He
:09:42. > :09:44.criticised Nato. He says an less Nato is fundamentally reformed
:09:45. > :09:48.common here is not interested. Businessman Trump was briefed about
:09:49. > :09:55.Nato because he was not involved in foreign policy. Other issues were
:09:56. > :10:02.discussed but not foreign policy. He was briefed on how nature works and
:10:03. > :10:08.was informed that the US should pay 70% of Nato bills course he was not
:10:09. > :10:15.happy. So this is a reminder of enforcement, what we are doing. I
:10:16. > :10:22.agree. Maybe it was done sharply but he was right. Here is a quote from
:10:23. > :10:26.Donald Trump in the year 2000. America has no vital interest in
:10:27. > :10:31.choosing between warring factions whose animosities go back centuries
:10:32. > :10:35.in Eastern Europe. You can mention more statements. But there was an
:10:36. > :10:44.electoral campaign, there were statements statements and
:10:45. > :10:47.corrections. But responsibility now comes. When the administration is in
:10:48. > :10:55.place, they have to be responsible for everything. I simply cannot
:10:56. > :11:00.imagine... I know foreign ministers are to be diplomatic but be honest.
:11:01. > :11:07.Let's have the truth on this one. When Newt Gingrich last summer,
:11:08. > :11:13.close advice and support of Donald Trump, he said, Estonia is in the
:11:14. > :11:17.suburbs of St Petersburg, 40% of Estonia is Russian, I am not sure if
:11:18. > :11:24.I would risk nuclear war of some place in the suburbs of St
:11:25. > :11:27.Petersburg. I am simply pointing out that these are the kinds of people
:11:28. > :11:32.but Donald Trump is taking his advice from getting his mindset
:11:33. > :11:40.from. I meant other people quite close to President-elect Trump, like
:11:41. > :11:48.the former mayor of new York. He was very passionate and enthusiastic
:11:49. > :11:53.about Baltic states. In general, I cannot imagine he'd changed his
:11:54. > :11:58.mind. I'm not advocating statements made by Newt Gingrich which were not
:11:59. > :12:03.correct. We were not happy with the statements because they were not
:12:04. > :12:07.polite and frankly wrong. Estonia is not a suburb of St Petersburg! That
:12:08. > :12:13.is what we could call a rhetorical flourish. But what I would say to
:12:14. > :12:17.you is that the evidence is, and leave aside the detail of Trump,
:12:18. > :12:21.because it is yet to be seen what he would do, but the mindset in
:12:22. > :12:26.Washington as a whole, and one could even say that Barack Obama shed this
:12:27. > :12:29.to a certain extent, is to question the utility of Nato as it works at
:12:30. > :12:39.the present time. Would you accept that? No. Nato is one of the most
:12:40. > :12:44.successful organisations in history in terms of security. I have no
:12:45. > :12:51.doubt it will be sent to the normal proper places. There was a phone
:12:52. > :12:56.call recently between the Secretary General of Nato and President-elect
:12:57. > :13:01.Trump. I have no doubt that the US will remain a leader of Nato. It
:13:02. > :13:08.will happen. And we should not just put aside the argument that a team
:13:09. > :13:13.is coming. Over 4000 officials will be appointed, approved by the Senate
:13:14. > :13:18.and Congress. But it will come from a Republican poll, which is well
:13:19. > :13:22.known. I could imagine corrections but I do not agree that there will
:13:23. > :13:28.be some revolution or U-turn or major changes in the traditional
:13:29. > :13:33.position of the United States. I think perhaps you may be missing a
:13:34. > :13:36.trend in the United States. I interviewed a former Defence
:13:37. > :13:42.Secretary and he said the US Congress is not interested in
:13:43. > :13:48.funding Nato in the future. I was present during his speech. You know
:13:49. > :13:52.the President Obama used the phrase free riders will you was frustrated
:13:53. > :13:57.with Nato members who do not pay your way. You are a small country of
:13:58. > :14:01.3 million in a small organisation. How will you persuade those free
:14:02. > :14:06.riders that unless the step up to the plate, they are jeopardising the
:14:07. > :14:14.very future of the organisation? When we try to draw attention of the
:14:15. > :14:19.world after 2008, we all remember, we were condemning what happened, we
:14:20. > :14:24.made statements. In a few months, we got back to business as usual
:14:25. > :14:28.because there were calls to be pragmatic and diplomatic, economy,
:14:29. > :14:31.trade is important. We were told we were wrong, we should be consistent.
:14:32. > :14:38.We're not saying anybody should believe what we are saying but how
:14:39. > :14:43.they should respect our decisions. Those were lessons not learned by us
:14:44. > :14:47.but by others, by Russia, and they realised that in the 21st century,
:14:48. > :14:54.it is possible to redraw the borders of Europe with little damage. That
:14:55. > :14:59.was not the first but one of the lessons in 2008. Personally I said
:15:00. > :15:08.it would be Crimea. Crimea already happened. Crimea, which Donald Trump
:15:09. > :15:14.has indicated is minded to recognise Russian sovereignty. I doubt that
:15:15. > :15:22.will happen. I cannot imagine. We have to respect world order. If
:15:23. > :15:28.somebody that order... Some may say that you sound like a man in denial!
:15:29. > :15:35.Why a? You say to me I'd put to you these various things that Trump has
:15:36. > :15:41.said, and you just say I refuse to think about it. I did not say that.
:15:42. > :15:47.I am just trying to invite you and give a chance for them to deliver
:15:48. > :15:51.something and then we will judge. It would be counter-productive to
:15:52. > :15:56.prejudge or conclude or panic or shock or terror. It is not helpful.
:15:57. > :15:58.If we need to preserve what was invested in done together, for the
:15:59. > :16:06.sake of each other, not at the expense of each other. It will come.
:16:07. > :16:10.I know their own nuances, there were statements I was not happy with, but
:16:11. > :16:16.it is an electoral campaign. It is different now. It is a few days
:16:17. > :16:21.since the election result became clear. We have that key
:16:22. > :16:26.appointments, like a man who says he wants to reset relations with
:16:27. > :16:35.Moscow. Are any of these people restart your government? There was
:16:36. > :16:41.some congressmen sending messages, I remember, saying, if something would
:16:42. > :16:45.happen, it was addressed to people in Poland, we will be there, Trump
:16:46. > :16:54.will be there if necessary. There were statements. There was no direct
:16:55. > :17:00.contact. Is that bit disappointing? Let's not jump to conclusions, it is
:17:01. > :17:04.not professional to be disappointed! If it is not professional to be
:17:05. > :17:09.disappointed, let me not express disappointment but surprise that,
:17:10. > :17:14.after having told me everything about the need for Nato to be
:17:15. > :17:18.strong, stick together, show a clear message to Vladimir Putin, how many
:17:19. > :17:24.troops does your country actually provide right now to the Nato rapid
:17:25. > :17:28.response force? We are providing not just of the Nato rapid response
:17:29. > :17:36.force but we have our own. Please answer the question. We are sending
:17:37. > :17:40.up to 1000 or even more. As I understood from the reading I have
:17:41. > :17:49.done, you currently provide just over 200 infantry troops. In
:17:50. > :17:56.defencemen. We have 2500, our own rapid reaction troops. But this is
:17:57. > :18:00.about the contribution to Nato. Nato is demanding much greater
:18:01. > :18:05.solidarity. OK, we are a small country, our total size of the force
:18:06. > :18:10.is not big, nobody expects quantity but quality. We are providing very
:18:11. > :18:18.high-quality special troops. They are active in Afghanistan. You can
:18:19. > :18:21.suppose they are with and the SS and a performance highly. So the quality
:18:22. > :18:27.of what we provide is really sufficient. Quantity will not be
:18:28. > :18:32.impressive but it is not our goal. We have to contribute but also do
:18:33. > :18:40.ourselves. You should not neglect what I said, 2500 national troops.
:18:41. > :18:45.It is the same segment. We have talked a lot about Nato and the
:18:46. > :18:49.United States after the Trump victory. Let's now focus on Europe
:18:50. > :18:54.itself. It seems to me you have a big problem in Europe as well. For
:18:55. > :18:59.all of your appeals for European solidarity, there are a number of
:19:00. > :19:04.governments and political parties in Europe are showing increasing signs
:19:05. > :19:09.of getting disaffected from on Russia and are beginning to make
:19:10. > :19:16.noises, saying, we should have a warmer relationship with Moscow. Why
:19:17. > :19:19.is this happening? Many reasons that I cannot disclose but I can provide
:19:20. > :19:25.you with examples. When we talk about our legacy, it is one story,
:19:26. > :19:30.when we talk about the rest of Europe... I am thinking of Hungary,
:19:31. > :19:35.Bulgaria, which is just elected a President who has said, let's end
:19:36. > :19:40.sanctions against Moscow. There are some politicians. Speaking about
:19:41. > :19:45.Bulgaria, it is not only one man creating the situation. The problem
:19:46. > :19:50.is, and you quite rightly noticed, this is applicable to Europe and
:19:51. > :19:55.overseas, populism is taking over and people do not listen to the
:19:56. > :20:02.arguments, they take decisions by emotion. Politicians should feel
:20:03. > :20:06.responsible for that. Why does populism involve a warmer
:20:07. > :20:12.relationship with Putin? Lack of leadership, missing targets. You did
:20:13. > :20:19.not want to touch on Aleppo but let me mention, there are family photos,
:20:20. > :20:25.organisations in charge, United Nations. People are being killed.
:20:26. > :20:30.People are frustrated. They do not believe in peace and order in the
:20:31. > :20:33.world or these organisations. It is applicable to the governments and
:20:34. > :20:39.people, and they are punishing their governments when they vote for a
:20:40. > :20:42.referendum so elections, they are punishing current governments, not
:20:43. > :20:46.necessarily voting for the question raised during the referendum. It is
:20:47. > :20:53.something we have to address seriously otherwise we will lose the
:20:54. > :20:56.catch everywhere and this is big. There are intelligence officials and
:20:57. > :21:00.the United States and Europe and commentators who say Russia is
:21:01. > :21:05.playing a very clever game here. They are using information,
:21:06. > :21:10.propaganda, other forms of reach out to people and parties in Europe. In
:21:11. > :21:15.conventional warfare, there was an artillery attack before a real
:21:16. > :21:23.battle, now there is no need. You can brainwash. Brainwash? ! You are
:21:24. > :21:29.saying Moscow has the programme of brainwashing? It happened in Crimea,
:21:30. > :21:33.the people were brainwashed by state-controlled media, spreading
:21:34. > :21:38.lies, it is a big weapon. You are saying they are doing the same thing
:21:39. > :21:45.in Europe? Everywhere, and also the UK, in France, Italy. Evidence? If
:21:46. > :21:49.people are complacent but they are doing, if there are ideas, let's
:21:50. > :21:55.knew something because is provocative, it is wrong. Not doing
:21:56. > :22:02.is provocative, not acting when you need to act is provocative. I am not
:22:03. > :22:06.hearing any evidence brainwashing. In Crimea, people were convinced by
:22:07. > :22:11.state media that bandits and fascists were coming to kill them.
:22:12. > :22:16.It was well known. We know that from our sources, we were scared. They
:22:17. > :22:21.welcomed Russian soldiers who came to save them. This is a massive
:22:22. > :22:29.psychological attack, brainwashing. How can it be called in your view? I
:22:30. > :22:34.see no evidence that there is brainwashing in Europe. There have
:22:35. > :22:40.been allegations of Russians giving the French far right party money. It
:22:41. > :22:48.is financed by sources outside and it is a caper people, it is fine
:22:49. > :22:55.with everyone. Or if you have a referendum in some country, taking
:22:56. > :22:59.hostage the Ukraine, as was in the Netherlands, for instance. So you
:23:00. > :23:11.see this as a pattern? People are realising something when it comes
:23:12. > :23:19.close, personally. Thinking happened after MH 17. If something happens in
:23:20. > :23:24.Europe, it is our continent. Maybe we should end with this thought.
:23:25. > :23:29.Isn't that should do everything we have discussed, the triumphs of
:23:30. > :23:32.Trump, the messages he is delivering, right now, it looks as
:23:33. > :23:37.if Vladimir Putin is getting his way? He is always getting his way
:23:38. > :23:43.because he is testing, probing, testing whether we will react, how
:23:44. > :23:49.will it will react, he continues to do what he has to do, those are his
:23:50. > :24:00.methods. So you are still very afraid? It would be wrong if it is
:24:01. > :24:04.just our problem. It is our own problem. Time will come and we will
:24:05. > :24:09.see ourselves but how many wake-up calls are needed to wake up? It
:24:10. > :24:11.depends. It is better to wake up when it is time to wake up. Thank
:24:12. > :24:44.you very much for being an HARDtalk. Most of us can look forward to
:24:45. > :24:50.plenty of fine sunny weather tomorrow. You need to wear layers to
:24:51. > :24:51.keep the cold out. A hard frost setting here. Mild across the far
:24:52. > :24:53.north