0:00:05 > 0:00:08Welcome to HARDtalk, with me, Zeinab Badawi,
0:00:08 > 0:00:11from the Swiss resort of Davos, where my guest is one
0:00:11 > 0:00:14of the delegates of the annual World Economic Forum -
0:00:14 > 0:00:18Nigeria's Agriculture Minister, Audu Ogbeh.
0:00:18 > 0:00:21When President Buhari came to power 18 months ago, he raised hopes
0:00:21 > 0:00:26that he would reform the country.
0:00:26 > 0:00:29Instead, Nigeria is involved in its worst recession for 20 years.
0:00:29 > 0:00:33There is widespread food insecurity in the north and growing unrest.
0:00:33 > 0:00:37Why can't this oil-rich nation with plenty of farmland
0:00:37 > 0:00:41feed its own people and enjoy greater stability?
0:00:41 > 0:00:42Minister Audu Ogbeh, welcome to HARDtalk.
0:00:56 > 0:00:59Minister Audu Ogbeh, welcome to HARDtalk.
0:00:59 > 0:01:01Thank you very much for inviting me here.
0:01:01 > 0:01:04We've seen 2 million people displaced by Boko Haram
0:01:04 > 0:01:06in the north of Nigeria.
0:01:06 > 0:01:12Terrible food insecurity there now.
0:01:12 > 0:01:15The UN Humanitarian Office is warning of severe food shortages.
0:01:15 > 0:01:18Nearly half a million children face acute malnutrition and that people
0:01:18 > 0:01:20will die if aid is not given.
0:01:20 > 0:01:26Are you managing to get these people some food to eat?
0:01:26 > 0:01:31We are managing to get them some food.
0:01:31 > 0:01:34My ministry sent over 10,000 tonnes of grain,
0:01:34 > 0:01:39about four months ago.
0:01:39 > 0:01:46On a regular basis the National Emergency Management Authority sends
0:01:46 > 0:01:49anything up to half a million tonnes of grain to north-east.
0:01:49 > 0:01:52This is not to say that that's absolutely enough to feed them,
0:01:52 > 0:01:54but food is being rushed to the north-east almost
0:01:54 > 0:01:55on a weekly basis.
0:01:55 > 0:01:58And you can categorically say that people will not die
0:01:58 > 0:01:59in northern Nigeria?
0:01:59 > 0:02:03A few will die, a certain number will, because they are moving back
0:02:03 > 0:02:04to their villages now.
0:02:04 > 0:02:05It's too late...
0:02:05 > 0:02:07What does "a certain number" mean, Minister?
0:02:07 > 0:02:11You could have a few thousand probably not getting enough food,
0:02:11 > 0:02:14especially the children, in the camps.
0:02:14 > 0:02:17Because they have special kinds of food they need to eat.
0:02:17 > 0:02:20We are importing out any single time now...
0:02:20 > 0:02:24I just approved about ten shiploads, ten aircraft loads of ready to use
0:02:24 > 0:02:27food materials from Western Europe to be delivered to
0:02:27 > 0:02:33children in the camps.
0:02:33 > 0:02:36Because they can't eat the kind of food is the adult seat.
0:02:36 > 0:02:39Milk, you know, soya beans, protein enriched foods like that
0:02:39 > 0:02:41for the children to eat.
0:02:41 > 0:02:45But definitely many will go through hardship.
0:02:45 > 0:02:50But you just said that you believe that thousands,
0:02:50 > 0:02:51including many children, could die.
0:02:52 > 0:02:58Many could die, if the programmes are sustained, they went.
0:02:58 > 0:03:01If there is any halt in them, or any difficulties in the way
0:03:01 > 0:03:03of deliveries, a number will die.
0:03:03 > 0:03:04I can't be precise.
0:03:04 > 0:03:07Are you saying here, now, that you are appealing for more
0:03:07 > 0:03:08help to prevent those deaths?
0:03:09 > 0:03:12As much help as we can get, but at home we are doing
0:03:12 > 0:03:13a whole lot of work.
0:03:13 > 0:03:16I am a member of a national committee for delivering
0:03:16 > 0:03:18food to the north-east, especially because I am
0:03:18 > 0:03:21in the Ministry of agriculture, but other agencies, the Red Cross,
0:03:21 > 0:03:23the National Emergency Management Authority, organisations
0:03:23 > 0:03:26like the Dangote Group, are sending things to the north-east
0:03:26 > 0:03:29like rice and beans and yams and so on on a daily basis.
0:03:29 > 0:03:33But what you have got to do is to ensure that these people
0:03:33 > 0:03:35enjoy some stability, and that means really
0:03:35 > 0:03:36defeating Boko Haram, who have been responsible
0:03:36 > 0:03:38for many atrocities.
0:03:39 > 0:03:42We all know about the schoolgirls who were kidnapped and so on.
0:03:42 > 0:03:47President Buhari says, "We are getting the better of them."
0:03:47 > 0:03:50But the International Crisis Group says that there is still substantial
0:03:50 > 0:03:56resistance by Boko Haram.
0:03:56 > 0:03:58This is a war you cannot win in one day.
0:03:58 > 0:04:00It is not a regular war.
0:04:00 > 0:04:03If it was, the Nigerian army is capable of dealing with it.
0:04:03 > 0:04:06Number two, people must remember, when it came
0:04:06 > 0:04:09in initially, the handling - I'm not just here to criticise
0:04:09 > 0:04:11the previous government - was extremely poor.
0:04:11 > 0:04:14President Buhari came in and how to restructure the Army.
0:04:14 > 0:04:21To put them in a position to put Boko Haram on the run.
0:04:21 > 0:04:24It will not end overnight, I can assure you.
0:04:25 > 0:04:28But is the Nigerian army properly equipped to fight Boko Haram?
0:04:28 > 0:04:31Let me tell you what a security analyst based in Lagos says.
0:04:31 > 0:04:35He says, you can't send men to fight Boko Haram wearing flip-flops
0:04:35 > 0:04:47and rusty rifles with no ammunition, that is not going to work.
0:04:47 > 0:04:48He's right, isn't he?
0:04:48 > 0:04:51Well, I don't know who he is, or whether he has been
0:04:51 > 0:04:52on the waterfront.
0:04:52 > 0:04:54He is with the Pilgrims Africa security company,
0:04:54 > 0:04:55which is based in Lagos.
0:04:56 > 0:05:03How often has he been on the waterfront?
0:05:03 > 0:05:06Sometimes, commentators far-away from the front can comment and it
0:05:06 > 0:05:08makes it look like nobody is doing any work.
0:05:08 > 0:05:12But, rifles and tanks and weapons of all kinds have to be bought.
0:05:12 > 0:05:15But it's also a question of inspiring trust and confidence
0:05:15 > 0:05:17amongst people in your country about the abilities
0:05:17 > 0:05:18of the security forces.
0:05:18 > 0:05:21If that situation had not changed, some would not have been captured.
0:05:21 > 0:05:24Even the people in Borno State themselves will tell you that
0:05:24 > 0:05:26things are a lot better, they have more hope
0:05:26 > 0:05:36and more confidence.
0:05:36 > 0:05:38Well, let me tell you what happened
0:05:38 > 0:05:40in Borno State, and you know very well yourself, Minister,
0:05:40 > 0:05:43that's nearly 100 people died because the Nigerian Air Force
0:05:43 > 0:05:45accidentally hit a refugee camp in Borno State.
0:05:45 > 0:05:46A very tragic occurrence.
0:05:46 > 0:05:49It is not going to inspire trust, though, is it?
0:05:49 > 0:05:52Didn't the US Army hit Russian troops in Syria?
0:05:52 > 0:05:57Didn't they apologise for it?
0:05:57 > 0:06:00If we talk to the Americans, we'll put these things to them.
0:06:00 > 0:06:01Friendly fire, and so on.
0:06:02 > 0:06:03Things happen in warfare.
0:06:03 > 0:06:05Nobody can imagine that the Nigerian Air Force deliberately
0:06:05 > 0:06:06bombed a refugee camp.
0:06:06 > 0:06:07I didn't say that.
0:06:07 > 0:06:10I said it doesn't inspire trust and confidence in the military.
0:06:10 > 0:06:11Accidents do happen.
0:06:11 > 0:06:14We regret it, we are sad about it, it shouldn't have happened,
0:06:14 > 0:06:16but these things do happen.
0:06:16 > 0:06:17The president is mounting an enquiry.
0:06:17 > 0:06:18Why did it happen?
0:06:18 > 0:06:21Somebody has to be called to account for it.
0:06:21 > 0:06:22And will there be resignations?
0:06:22 > 0:06:28I do not know yet, it depends on the findings.
0:06:28 > 0:06:31But the fact is, it is not just Boko Haram.
0:06:31 > 0:06:34You say you are getting the better of Boko Haram and I put it
0:06:35 > 0:06:38to you that you have got armrests now from the Islamic movement,
0:06:38 > 0:06:40a Shia group in northern Nigeria, 300 people were killed
0:06:40 > 0:06:43in Kaduna State in 2016.
0:06:43 > 0:06:46We've also got in the south-east Biafra separatists.
0:06:46 > 0:06:48We all remember the terrible Biafra war in 1967-70.
0:06:48 > 0:06:50And you've got conflicts between pastoralists and farmers
0:06:50 > 0:06:52spreading across the country, leading to deaths.
0:06:52 > 0:06:55So, really, you've got so much in your hands.
0:06:55 > 0:06:59It's not just Boko Haram.
0:06:59 > 0:07:01We have a lot on our hands.
0:07:01 > 0:07:02We are working towards solving them.
0:07:02 > 0:07:06I mean, this is a country of 193 million people.
0:07:06 > 0:07:08A country hit by severe economic recession.
0:07:08 > 0:07:10And people have started reacting in different ways.
0:07:10 > 0:07:14I mean, Boko Haram was a product of a certain amount of neglect and,
0:07:14 > 0:07:16perhaps, indifference to the real issues in the economy.
0:07:16 > 0:07:26We got caught by what they called the Dutch disease.
0:07:26 > 0:07:28Oil and gas came in and local production literally halted
0:07:28 > 0:07:31in agriculture and manufacturing.
0:07:31 > 0:07:33The long-term effects of these uprisings are driven mainly by lack
0:07:33 > 0:07:36of inclusion and perhaps lack of internal productivity
0:07:36 > 0:07:41and activity in the economy.
0:07:42 > 0:07:46And you are seeing that now in the south-east with the Biafra
0:07:46 > 0:07:49separatists who was saying, "We are not treated fairly
0:07:49 > 0:07:53by the federal government."
0:07:53 > 0:07:59In May, there were 40 deaths in Onitsha,
0:07:59 > 0:08:01Amnesty International say, you know, that police
0:08:01 > 0:08:02opened fire on civilians.
0:08:02 > 0:08:05There is no part of the country you go to where you don't
0:08:05 > 0:08:08find people telling you they are not well treated.
0:08:08 > 0:08:09Each of these states...
0:08:09 > 0:08:10Nigeria has 36 states.
0:08:10 > 0:08:12Each state has an autonomous government of its own.
0:08:12 > 0:08:15Everybody blames only the president at the centre.
0:08:15 > 0:08:16It doesn't always make sense.
0:08:16 > 0:08:17But the fact is...
0:08:17 > 0:08:19You have alluded to it.
0:08:19 > 0:08:24Nigeria is a deeply divided country.
0:08:24 > 0:08:26That's what a UN report said in 2016.
0:08:26 > 0:08:29It also said, since independence, Nigeria has struggled to build
0:08:29 > 0:08:30and sustain national integration.
0:08:30 > 0:08:32For decades, different segments of Nigeria's population
0:08:32 > 0:08:35have at times expressed fears of marginalisation.
0:08:35 > 0:08:38Everybody complains of marginalisation.
0:08:38 > 0:08:42There is always one group saying we have been left out of the scheme.
0:08:42 > 0:08:45What is there to share?
0:08:45 > 0:08:47The general revenue from oil and gas.
0:08:47 > 0:08:49There is a formula for distribution to the states.
0:08:49 > 0:08:51They get their own share of the revenue.
0:08:51 > 0:08:54But every still blames the federal government for marginalisation.
0:08:54 > 0:08:57You know why they complain - we haven't had enough of our people
0:08:57 > 0:09:01appointed to certain key positions at the centre.
0:09:01 > 0:09:04Let's look at agriculture, because that's your ministry.
0:09:04 > 0:09:07Now, Nigeria spends $22 billion every year importing food.
0:09:07 > 0:09:09It got so much agricultural land, yet more than half
0:09:10 > 0:09:11of it goes unfarmed.
0:09:11 > 0:09:16That's tragic.
0:09:16 > 0:09:19It is tragic, because once we got into this habit of importing,
0:09:19 > 0:09:22because there was oil revenue to bring in the rice, the sugar,
0:09:22 > 0:09:30the milk, people simply gave up on agriculture.
0:09:30 > 0:09:34A crisis among the elite.
0:09:34 > 0:09:36Banks wouldn't lend money to agriculture.
0:09:36 > 0:09:38They lent money to...
0:09:38 > 0:09:39It was at 25%.
0:09:39 > 0:09:41And that remains the lending average in Nigeria, even today.
0:09:41 > 0:09:43So we gave up on agriculture.
0:09:43 > 0:09:47Now, we have no more returns from oil and gas,
0:09:47 > 0:09:50we are short of food and everybody's realising that we made a serious
0:09:50 > 0:09:52mistake and we have to correct it.
0:09:52 > 0:09:54Which is exactly what we're doing.
0:09:54 > 0:09:55But it has...
0:09:55 > 0:09:57It is amazing, because, in the 1970s, Nigeria
0:09:58 > 0:10:01was an agricultural superpower.
0:10:01 > 0:10:03Before we got oil and gas.
0:10:03 > 0:10:05In Africa.
0:10:05 > 0:10:05Absolutely.
0:10:05 > 0:10:07You were number two in cocoa production,
0:10:07 > 0:10:09you were groundnut exporters, exported palm oil.
0:10:09 > 0:10:11You now have to import your palm oil.
0:10:11 > 0:10:20People just relied on oil?
0:10:20 > 0:10:21Everybody relied on oil and gas.
0:10:21 > 0:10:25In a way, it is good that we are facing a new reality.
0:10:25 > 0:10:26Get back to agriculture.
0:10:26 > 0:10:28That is your core competence as a nation.
0:10:28 > 0:10:30And believe me, we are working at it.
0:10:30 > 0:10:34This year alone, we are almost close to stopping the importation of rice,
0:10:34 > 0:10:38which cost us $5 million a day over a period of nearly 30 years.
0:10:38 > 0:10:39We are about to end it.
0:10:39 > 0:10:43We can do it, we have decided to do it, we have the support
0:10:43 > 0:10:46of the president and many of the State governors are working
0:10:46 > 0:10:50on it, and I assure you, it another year, we may be selling
0:10:50 > 0:10:51rice to somebody else.
0:10:51 > 0:10:54But, you know, a lot of people, I think including you,
0:10:54 > 0:10:57will agree that when it comes to the smallholder farmers
0:10:57 > 0:11:01in Nigeria and most of the farmers are, of course, smallholders,
0:11:01 > 0:11:03but also agribusiness, high borrowing rates have made it
0:11:03 > 0:11:06practically impossible for them to scale up production.
0:11:06 > 0:11:13Absolutely.
0:11:13 > 0:11:16They want to borrow, but they can't, and the banks are not lending.
0:11:16 > 0:11:19A tiny fraction of Nigerian banks' lending goes to local
0:11:19 > 0:11:19agricultural production.
0:11:20 > 0:11:22Almost zero now, because they lend to traders, to importers,
0:11:22 > 0:11:26not to the farmers.
0:11:26 > 0:11:29But you just said you were getting to grips with the problem.
0:11:29 > 0:11:31We have found a way out.
0:11:31 > 0:11:33This bank has intervened and the Bank of Agriculture
0:11:33 > 0:11:34has been restructured.
0:11:34 > 0:11:38Just two days ago I had a meeting before I came here to fix finances
0:11:38 > 0:11:42to support lending to agriculture at a single digit.
0:11:42 > 0:11:45And it is because of the central bank's intervention,
0:11:45 > 0:11:46direct intervention, criticised by some economists,
0:11:46 > 0:11:48which has worked for us.
0:11:48 > 0:11:51The rice production and grain production has gone up phenomenally
0:11:51 > 0:11:53in the last 12 months.
0:11:53 > 0:11:56We have to work it out.
0:11:56 > 0:11:59We can't rely on the commercial banks.
0:11:59 > 0:12:01The Bank of Agriculture will come into place.
0:12:01 > 0:12:04And then the interest rates we charge will be the average,
0:12:04 > 0:12:07that farmers can manage.
0:12:07 > 0:12:11The good news is that the yields on farms have risen because we did
0:12:11 > 0:12:14a soil map of Nigeria, change the fertiliser application
0:12:14 > 0:12:17formula and farmers have yielded up from two tonnes a hectare,
0:12:17 > 0:12:21to seven and a half.
0:12:21 > 0:12:25And that has made it more safe for them to go back to the farm.
0:12:25 > 0:12:27One of your predecessors as Agriculture Minister,
0:12:27 > 0:12:30Akin Adesina, now president of the African Development Bank,
0:12:30 > 0:12:35says agriculture is really, really important, it employs two
0:12:35 > 0:12:38thirds of the workforce in Nigeria, 28% now of GDP comes
0:12:38 > 0:12:41from agriculture in Nigeria.
0:12:41 > 0:12:46But he says you've got to bake farming sexy,
0:12:46 > 0:12:49so that all those young Nigerians want to work in farming and not just
0:12:49 > 0:12:51all go to the cities.
0:12:51 > 0:12:52Are you making farming sexy?
0:12:52 > 0:12:53Absolutely.
0:12:53 > 0:13:04I'll tell you the story of a young man I saw in Kebbi State.
0:13:04 > 0:13:07Kebbi is about 1,000 miles from Lagos, 1,000 kilometres.
0:13:07 > 0:13:08And he was wearing a T-shirt.
0:13:08 > 0:13:11The T-shirt bore the name of a local politician in Lagos.
0:13:11 > 0:13:15I saw him in Kebbi and I said, where did you meet that family?
0:13:15 > 0:13:18He said, oh, I was under the bridge in Lagos for one year,
0:13:19 > 0:13:21nearly starved to death, until I heard that rice growing
0:13:21 > 0:13:24was taking place in my state and I got back home.
0:13:24 > 0:13:28And in one year I made more than half a million naira in income.
0:13:28 > 0:13:31The young men and women are returning to agriculture.
0:13:31 > 0:13:35On a large-scale.
0:13:35 > 0:13:38Because we are buying them equipment, giving them good seeds,
0:13:38 > 0:13:40preparing land of them, and increasing the number
0:13:40 > 0:13:41of tractors on the farms.
0:13:41 > 0:13:43It's the only way of doing it.
0:13:43 > 0:13:46But, as things stand, Nigeria still depends on oil and gas
0:13:46 > 0:13:49for 90% of its export earnings and about 70% of state revenues.
0:13:49 > 0:13:52When do you really think we are going to see that greater
0:13:52 > 0:13:55diversification in the Nigerian economy so that those
0:13:55 > 0:13:55figures go down?
0:13:56 > 0:13:57There is a simple strategy.
0:13:57 > 0:13:59In another year, we will be absolutely self-sufficient
0:13:59 > 0:14:02in the local staples.
0:14:02 > 0:14:05We are number two in the world in sorghum, number three in millet.
0:14:05 > 0:14:07So you could halve your import bill?
0:14:07 > 0:14:08Absolutely.
0:14:08 > 0:14:09We are stopping rice importation.
0:14:09 > 0:14:11That's cutting $5 million a day from the import
0:14:11 > 0:14:12bill in another year.
0:14:12 > 0:14:15Once that is done, we move to exports.
0:14:15 > 0:14:23Cocoa, cashew, sesame seed, pulses from India, cassava.
0:14:23 > 0:14:25OK.
0:14:25 > 0:14:27And if you really want to boost your agricultural earnings,
0:14:28 > 0:14:31you're going to have to give some added value to your raw product.
0:14:31 > 0:14:33Let me give you one example.
0:14:33 > 0:14:35Nigeria accounts for about 11% of Africa's total tomato production,
0:14:35 > 0:14:38yet you spend $100 million a year on importing tomato puree
0:14:39 > 0:14:41from China and Italy.
0:14:41 > 0:14:43It just doesn't make sense.
0:14:43 > 0:14:46Tomato paste producers, from certain parts of the world,
0:14:46 > 0:14:49continue to lower their prices to make a local production
0:14:49 > 0:14:53in Nigeria unprofitable.
0:14:53 > 0:14:55Who are you saying is doing that?
0:14:55 > 0:15:03Some countries from the far east.
0:15:03 > 0:15:04The one that's name begins with C?
0:15:04 > 0:15:05Probably.
0:15:05 > 0:15:07We're saying, listen, we need to create jobs
0:15:07 > 0:15:09for our people, especially women in agriculture,
0:15:09 > 0:15:12and they keep lowering the prices, so we have an alternative.
0:15:12 > 0:15:14Either ban their products altogether, or raise the duties,
0:15:14 > 0:15:17because we can't keep satisfying the sentiment of so-called
0:15:17 > 0:15:20free trade sentiments.
0:15:20 > 0:15:23OK, but that is one side of the argument, but you've also got
0:15:23 > 0:15:25to make sure you have proper processing plants,
0:15:25 > 0:15:27canning facilities, people who have the skills.
0:15:27 > 0:15:28Precisely what I'm telling you.
0:15:28 > 0:15:30To make puree out of the tomatoes.
0:15:30 > 0:15:33One of the biggest puree plants in Africa -
0:15:33 > 0:15:36it can't operate because if it buys the tomatoes from the local farmers,
0:15:36 > 0:15:39processes at home, the prices will be a bit higher
0:15:39 > 0:15:40than the imported.
0:15:40 > 0:15:47But those importing to us are subsidising their commodities.
0:15:47 > 0:15:50But when that happens, that's when Nigeria and other
0:15:50 > 0:15:52African countries, of course in the same situation,
0:15:52 > 0:15:54will really start boosting your export earnings from something
0:15:54 > 0:15:56other than oil.
0:15:56 > 0:15:59So as I said, things stand at the moment that you depend
0:15:59 > 0:16:02on oil, and we are seeing the activities of the militants
0:16:02 > 0:16:05of the Niger Delta, the oil producing region of Nigeria,
0:16:05 > 0:16:06the Niger Delta Avengers.
0:16:06 > 0:16:09There have been attempts to have negotiations with the government,
0:16:09 > 0:16:12but they have said that they are renewing their campaign
0:16:12 > 0:16:17for a wholesale destruction of Nigeria's oil production in 2017.
0:16:17 > 0:16:19You're going to face a tough year.
0:16:19 > 0:16:22The vice president of Nigeria was there just Monday morning before
0:16:22 > 0:16:24he flew here for the Davos conference.
0:16:24 > 0:16:25He has met with them.
0:16:25 > 0:16:28The talks going on at the highest level between the Nigerian
0:16:28 > 0:16:29government and the militants.
0:16:29 > 0:16:33A number of us believe that perhaps really we need to take steps
0:16:33 > 0:16:36to evolve and engage in war of the Niger Delta citizens
0:16:36 > 0:16:38in the oil industry, to guarantee peace and equity.
0:16:38 > 0:16:40By doing one or two things.
0:16:40 > 0:16:42Build a few more refineries in that zone.
0:16:42 > 0:16:45Let the shareholding belong to these members of those communities,
0:16:45 > 0:16:47so they become part of the exploration and exploitation
0:16:47 > 0:16:58of the resource in their region.
0:16:58 > 0:17:01I think that language and that message we will probably begin
0:17:01 > 0:17:04to see shortly and then we can find peace.
0:17:04 > 0:17:05So you are optimistic on that?
0:17:05 > 0:17:07Absolutely.
0:17:07 > 0:17:10But all this comes at a time when Nigeria is deeply
0:17:10 > 0:17:11engulfed in recession.
0:17:11 > 0:17:12The worst for decades.
0:17:12 > 0:17:13You have inflation about 18%.
0:17:13 > 0:17:18Your growth last year was negative.
0:17:18 > 0:17:24You have high levels of unemployment.
0:17:24 > 0:17:30About an $11 billion budget deficit.
0:17:30 > 0:17:32Even President Buhari himself, in September,
0:17:32 > 0:17:34said, Nigeria suddenly seems to be a poor country.
0:17:34 > 0:17:38Where are you going to get the money to do all the things you say that
0:17:38 > 0:17:39you want to?
0:17:39 > 0:17:40Two things will happen.
0:17:40 > 0:17:44Economists tell you you have to spend your way out of recession.
0:17:44 > 0:17:47If you have to spend your way out of recession, you have to find
0:17:47 > 0:17:49the money to spend.
0:17:49 > 0:17:51Where is that money going to come from?
0:17:51 > 0:17:53If you don't have the money, you can borrow.
0:17:53 > 0:17:55But people aren't borrowing for you.
0:17:55 > 0:18:00Lenders like the World Bank have said, we don't want to lend money
0:18:00 > 0:18:03to Nigeria because we don't think President Buhari is carrying out
0:18:03 > 0:18:05the reforms that we would like him to.
0:18:05 > 0:18:08But some of the reforms they are asking for is further
0:18:08 > 0:18:10devaluation of the currency, which is making life more
0:18:10 > 0:18:11miserable at home.
0:18:11 > 0:18:14If you go taking new measures that make people unhappier,
0:18:14 > 0:18:16and there is a revolt at home, then they say,
0:18:17 > 0:18:19OK, there is too much chaos in your country.
0:18:19 > 0:18:22You're referring to the fact that the naira is allowed to float
0:18:22 > 0:18:25and we saw a depreciation of about 40% of its value.
0:18:25 > 0:18:27Exactly, because as long as your import dependent,
0:18:27 > 0:18:29you keep weakening your currency.
0:18:29 > 0:18:30There is no end to it.
0:18:31 > 0:18:31Two things will happen.
0:18:31 > 0:18:34Cut down your food bill, which we will, in another year.
0:18:35 > 0:18:37I can assure you food importation will drop so drastically,
0:18:37 > 0:18:40the world won't believe it, and we will become major exporters.
0:18:40 > 0:18:43Right now, we feed west, north and central Africa in grain.
0:18:43 > 0:18:45But, you know minister, there is scepticism
0:18:45 > 0:18:47that the government plans will ease the crisis.
0:18:47 > 0:18:50Let me tell you what economist Doyin Salami said.
0:18:50 > 0:18:52He was on President Buhari's transition team.
0:18:52 > 0:18:54Buhari is instinctively not capitalist, but has not articulated
0:18:54 > 0:18:56a feasible strategy for achieving inclusive growth
0:18:56 > 0:19:08through state driven means.
0:19:08 > 0:19:10He needs to be a bit more pro-market.
0:19:10 > 0:19:11Everybody in Nigeria is pro-market.
0:19:11 > 0:19:12You are right.
0:19:12 > 0:19:13There is one problem.
0:19:13 > 0:19:15I am not an economist.
0:19:15 > 0:19:16I am a teacher and a farmer.
0:19:17 > 0:19:18Economics is a very imprecise science.
0:19:18 > 0:19:20Sometimes there are so many contradictions.
0:19:20 > 0:19:23We had a meeting with the entire Cabinet about six months ago
0:19:23 > 0:19:26and they suggested, borrow your way through and sort the problem out,
0:19:26 > 0:19:28fix the economy and then repay the loans.
0:19:28 > 0:19:31The moment the government unfolded this plan for borrowing,
0:19:31 > 0:19:33the whole country went up in arms.
0:19:33 > 0:19:37Don't borrow any more money.
0:19:37 > 0:19:39Then they said, OK, sell marginal assets, redundant assets.
0:19:39 > 0:19:40Ah, don't sell a thing.
0:19:41 > 0:19:43The Saudi Arabians are selling off, according to their announcement,
0:19:43 > 0:19:4749% of Aramco.
0:19:47 > 0:19:50The Saudis are not anywhere in as much difficulty as Nigeria.
0:19:50 > 0:19:54A population of 25 million.
0:19:54 > 0:19:58And the point is?
0:19:58 > 0:20:01The point is, the same economists who say borrow your way through,
0:20:01 > 0:20:02quickly said don't borrow.
0:20:02 > 0:20:05The next minute, they say sell some of your assets.
0:20:05 > 0:20:11Or they say, don't sell anything.
0:20:11 > 0:20:14So you are saying President Buhari is getting conflicting advice?
0:20:14 > 0:20:17He is getting conflicting advice.
0:20:17 > 0:20:20And yet, most of the elite in the cities, and in fairness
0:20:20 > 0:20:23to them, they mean well, they don't really connect very much
0:20:23 > 0:20:29with what goes on below.
0:20:29 > 0:20:32But even President Obasanjo, a former president of Nigeria
0:20:32 > 0:20:34who is a supporter of Buhari, has said the economy,
0:20:34 > 0:20:36economics is not his strong suit.
0:20:36 > 0:20:37Is that true?
0:20:37 > 0:20:40And you asked them, what do you suggest in these circumstances?
0:20:40 > 0:20:41And they tell you nothing concrete.
0:20:41 > 0:20:42That's the problem.
0:20:42 > 0:20:44But there have been criticisms of President Buhari
0:20:44 > 0:20:45from diplomats, business leaders.
0:20:45 > 0:20:48They all talk of paralysis and a lack of urgency,
0:20:48 > 0:20:49the government losing momentum.
0:20:49 > 0:20:52I mean, it took him six months to appoint a cabinet
0:20:52 > 0:20:55after he won election.
0:20:55 > 0:20:58He had certain challenges which were not known to the public.
0:20:58 > 0:21:01Some people said he should have named the Cabinet as quickly
0:21:01 > 0:21:02he should have.
0:21:02 > 0:21:05Some said he didn't name the Cabinet in good time.
0:21:05 > 0:21:07He was under different kinds of pressure which suggested that
0:21:07 > 0:21:11perhaps because he was watching the economy, the cost of governance
0:21:11 > 0:21:13in Nigeria is so heavy that before he came,
0:21:13 > 0:21:1690% of our budget went to recurrent overheads and debt
0:21:16 > 0:21:38servicing, leaving 10%...
0:21:38 > 0:21:40That wasn't the point I was making.
0:21:40 > 0:21:44I have to put it to you, even allies such as his wife of 27
0:21:44 > 0:21:47years, Aisha, has said, I'm not sure if you ran for office
0:21:47 > 0:21:49in 2019 whether I would back him.
0:21:49 > 0:21:53She says, he doesn't know 45 of the 50 people who have been
0:21:53 > 0:21:54appointed in his administration.
0:21:54 > 0:21:55This is his own wife!
0:21:55 > 0:21:58She did make that comment and we recognise it.
0:21:58 > 0:22:01She expressed her view, which also shows that Buhari
0:22:01 > 0:22:01is a Democrat.
0:22:01 > 0:22:04Well, I don't know, he told her to get back
0:22:04 > 0:22:07into the kitchen - and the other room, wherever that
0:22:07 > 0:22:08other room is.
0:22:08 > 0:22:10It was meant to be taken as a joke.
0:22:10 > 0:22:12It was a family matter.
0:22:12 > 0:22:14She made a comment, she had her reasons,
0:22:14 > 0:22:16but that wasn't a national and international crisis as people
0:22:16 > 0:22:17made of it.
0:22:17 > 0:22:21The point is, right now in Nigeria, the only way to go is to go back
0:22:22 > 0:22:25to agriculture, get it right - and we are working hard at it -
0:22:25 > 0:22:28because until you sort out the food problem,
0:22:28 > 0:22:29nothing else will work.
0:22:29 > 0:22:34And corruption was the big thing that President Buhari campaigned on.
0:22:35 > 0:22:36And he is fighting it so seriously.
0:22:36 > 0:22:39And they are fighting him back.
0:22:39 > 0:22:42He says 10 billion has been lost, but so far you've only managed
0:22:43 > 0:22:45to recover 600 million and only one person,
0:22:45 > 0:22:47a former national security adviser, Sambo Dasuki, is standing
0:22:47 > 0:22:50trial for corruption.
0:22:50 > 0:22:51There are many people in court.
0:22:51 > 0:22:55Why do you think he has taken the corruption fight to the courts?
0:22:55 > 0:22:57Because there are deliberate delays in the system.
0:22:57 > 0:23:01And he knows as head of state and President that there are certain
0:23:01 > 0:23:03things that could have been done faster.
0:23:03 > 0:23:04He is not a judge.
0:23:04 > 0:23:06He is no longer a military head of state.
0:23:06 > 0:23:08He cannot just tell people without trial.
0:23:08 > 0:23:10The cases go to court.
0:23:10 > 0:23:12Some have been in court since 2007.
0:23:12 > 0:23:13So we will see movement.
0:23:13 > 0:23:16Finally, in June, President Buhari declared that Nigeria is facing
0:23:16 > 0:23:19"probably the toughest time in the history of our nation".
0:23:19 > 0:23:20Do you agree?
0:23:20 > 0:23:26Probably true, yes.
0:23:26 > 0:23:26Probably true?
0:23:26 > 0:23:28If he doesn't succeed, Nigeria will fail.
0:23:28 > 0:23:31He will succeed because we are working at the issues now.
0:23:31 > 0:23:34The problem, and this is advice to all of us,
0:23:34 > 0:23:37the Nigerian elite, the banking elite, the political elite,
0:23:37 > 0:23:39is for us to look inside Nigeria a little more.
0:23:39 > 0:23:43We have experts on every subject, we have people who have the finest
0:23:43 > 0:23:50degrees from the finest universities in the world.
0:23:50 > 0:23:52The majority of us don't know our country well, unfortunately.
0:23:52 > 0:23:55Minister Audu Ogbeh, thank you very much for coming on HARDtalk.
0:23:55 > 0:24:19Thank you very much.
0:24:19 > 0:24:22Wednesday will start quite windy across northern and western parts
0:24:22 > 0:24:23of the UK, and continue that way.
0:24:23 > 0:24:26Whereas into parts of southern England, the Midlands,
0:24:26 > 0:24:28East Anglia, it is troublesome fog once again.