:00:00. > :00:18.Welcome to HARDtalk, I am Stephen Sackur. Just how ugly is Britain's
:00:19. > :00:23.divorce from the EU going to be, and how damaging for the unhappy couple?
:00:24. > :00:28.As British MPs debate the formal triggering of the effort says, my
:00:29. > :00:33.guest is an EU politician who will be at the heart of the complex
:00:34. > :00:38.negotiations over a Brexit deal. Belgium's former Prime Minister and
:00:39. > :00:44.current MEP Guy Verhofstadt has warned Britain to expect no favours
:00:45. > :01:13.as it heads for the expert, but how confrontational is he prepared to
:01:14. > :01:20.be? Guy Verhofstadt, welcome to HARDtalk. I want to talk about
:01:21. > :01:24.Brexit with you but I don't want to start with the detail, I want to
:01:25. > :01:30.start with the contest. When the British public voted for Brexit on
:01:31. > :01:34.June 23, 2016 Barack Obama was president of the United States. Now
:01:35. > :01:37.the White House is occupied by Donald Trump. To what extent do you
:01:38. > :01:43.think this fundamental shift in global politics, the most important
:01:44. > :01:51.power in the world after all, how important is that as a change
:01:52. > :01:56.context for Brexit? I think it gives an opportunity for the European side
:01:57. > :02:04.to show and to work on more unity, because lets be honest, what Trump
:02:05. > :02:08.has said since now in a few days and weeks is very hostile towards Europe
:02:09. > :02:12.and he is saying openly that he thinks that Europe could
:02:13. > :02:16.disintegrate further. He thinks more European members of the EU will
:02:17. > :02:21.follow Britain out of the door and he thinks it is a good thing. He
:02:22. > :02:25.thinks it is a good thing to have a disintegrated European Union while I
:02:26. > :02:29.think it is quite the opposite. In fact the interest of the Americans
:02:30. > :02:33.isn't in a disintegrated Europe. The interest in America is to have a
:02:34. > :02:40.very united European ally. You can only walk on two legs. Trump needs
:02:41. > :02:46.an American lake and a European leg. Whatever your sceptical view of
:02:47. > :02:50.Donald Trump as president and as an individual, the fact is the European
:02:51. > :02:54.Union needs to be closely allied with the United States of America,
:02:55. > :02:58.it is a pillar of European security policy. That is what he is putting
:02:59. > :03:02.in danger. With respect, so are you. Some of the things you have said are
:03:03. > :03:07.actually extraordinary. You have said, you said this yesterday, I am
:03:08. > :03:12.quoting you, "Under the enormous political influence of Trump's
:03:13. > :03:16.political adviser Stephen Bannon, he sent people to Berlin and Paris to
:03:17. > :03:22.prepare the ground for similar referendum as that seen in Britain."
:03:23. > :03:26.Yes, exactly. Well, what evidence, you have set essentially he is
:03:27. > :03:33.taking active steps to undermine the European Union. Stephen Bannon,
:03:34. > :03:39.everyone knows it is an extreme right-wing newspaper he is
:03:40. > :03:42.promoting. In fact, extreme right-wing radical views. It is not
:03:43. > :03:49.the Drum Administration. You are saying hostile things about this. I
:03:50. > :03:55.am surprised you have said it is not the Trump administration. Mr Bannon
:03:56. > :03:59.has been appointed as a member of the National Security Council of the
:04:00. > :04:05.US. Even outside... You said something that is happening at a
:04:06. > :04:10.news website. I think it is maybe not the Trump administration, but Mr
:04:11. > :04:14.Stephen Bannon, the special adviser of Donald Trump. We can discuss the
:04:15. > :04:18.influence of Mr Bannon on Mr Trump, what I see is what Mr Trump is
:04:19. > :04:22.saying. CROSSTALK
:04:23. > :04:30.His quotes have been very clear. So I yours. I hope to be clear. That is
:04:31. > :04:34.why I am in politics. Normally you have the politics of politicians may
:04:35. > :04:38.be here who are trying to escape the question. IMO statements try never
:04:39. > :04:43.to escape the question. Yes, lets think about your choice of words. It
:04:44. > :04:50.makes it boring, maybe. It makes it fascinating. My view, you say, is we
:04:51. > :04:55.have a third front undermining the EU and that is Donald Trump. It is a
:04:56. > :05:00.word I am coming back to, hostility. You are downright hostile to what...
:05:01. > :05:05.I am not saying I am not hostile. I am only seeing and hearing what Mr
:05:06. > :05:12.Trump is saying. OK, let me is plain maybe. I think we have first of all
:05:13. > :05:17.the treachery in Europe and a radical Islam, jihadists, secondly
:05:18. > :05:21.we have a threat by Putin, the autocrat in the Kremlin who tries to
:05:22. > :05:27.divide Europe, already years from now, and now we have an American
:05:28. > :05:30.president who is not longer seeing the American unity, the American
:05:31. > :05:35.unity as a pillar for his foreign policy. And he is saying openly that
:05:36. > :05:40.he hopes for a disintegration of the European Union. So I think we are
:05:41. > :05:47.very much alone. I think we are for the moment in an existential moment
:05:48. > :05:51.for the European Union and I hope that my response to this is that
:05:52. > :05:55.only European unity can be the answer. I am mindful you have just
:05:56. > :06:03.written this book... That is my book about it. Europe's Last Chance, why
:06:04. > :06:07.the European states, the subtitle, must form a European Union.
:06:08. > :06:12.Ironically it is a phrase from the American Constitution. Yes, exactly.
:06:13. > :06:16.It will be difficult right now to persuade Europeans that they should
:06:17. > :06:20.regard as a model the federal United States of America, but that is
:06:21. > :06:26.obviously... It is about Donald Trump now. Donald Trump is the same
:06:27. > :06:29.as the American institutions. What I have seen is America after the
:06:30. > :06:34.financial crisis was capable to react immediately to the financial
:06:35. > :06:39.crisis. The cleaning up of the banks, the investment programme,
:06:40. > :06:44.quantitative easing. Well, if I look to Europe, we are not a union, in
:06:45. > :06:48.fact. What we are is a loose confederation of nationstates still
:06:49. > :06:53.based on unanimity and we are always acting too little too late, for
:06:54. > :06:57.example, in the financial crisis, in migration... So this book is even
:06:58. > :07:02.more Eurosceptic than all the Eurosceptic books that have been
:07:03. > :07:06.published in the United Kingdom. You think the formulation doesn't work.
:07:07. > :07:09.It cannot survive. You made an interesting point about the
:07:10. > :07:13.importance of nationstates. What Donald Trump is, at a validly a
:07:14. > :07:19.self-confessed American nationalists, America first is his
:07:20. > :07:24.message and that is a nationalists message, it is echoed across Europe
:07:25. > :07:29.in different nationstates where politicians are winning with a
:07:30. > :07:33.nationalists message -- avowedly. It is not echoed. It is the opposite.
:07:34. > :07:37.It was first born in Europe. Nationalism has been born in Europe.
:07:38. > :07:41.Nationalism has not been bought outside Europe. More than that, I
:07:42. > :07:44.think it is a tricky thing which is happening. That is that an American
:07:45. > :07:48.president is bidding on more nationalism in Europe. You know what
:07:49. > :07:53.it means, it is not nationalists based on values, it is nationalism
:07:54. > :07:58.based on ethnicity. And what nationalism has done in the last 100
:07:59. > :08:05.years in Europe, we all know it! 20 million victims, all of this is
:08:06. > :08:09.based on nationalism. So an American President thinking, European unity
:08:10. > :08:13.is not necessary, let's go back to national identity, ideas of
:08:14. > :08:17.nationalism. That is playing with fire in Europe. This is not America.
:08:18. > :08:23.This is Europe. We have the Holocaust, we had... Well, you
:08:24. > :08:28.can... I think it is a fair argument. You can cite the events of
:08:29. > :08:33.the 1930s and 1940s at me but let's stick with what happened today. Yes,
:08:34. > :08:36.but it can come back. Let's look at the context of Brexit. I come back
:08:37. > :08:40.to the basic point about the situation today in Europe. You have
:08:41. > :08:44.just seem to reason in the White House with Donald Trump talking
:08:45. > :08:47.about the state fast alliance between Britain and Europe. You've
:08:48. > :08:51.heard Donald Trump saying that he is going to seek a very quick trade
:08:52. > :08:57.deal with Britain. Talking in the most positive terms about Britain
:08:58. > :09:01.post Brexit. It weakens your hand as an EU negotiator, does it not, that
:09:02. > :09:05.Britain is now looking at history close relationship with Donald
:09:06. > :09:11.Trump. I am not reasoning in those terms because I know that the
:09:12. > :09:16.interest of the UK is more in Europe than in the US. You know the
:09:17. > :09:21.figures. You know the figures. 44% of the exports of Britain goes to
:09:22. > :09:27.the continent, to Europe. Only 12% goes to the US. So whatever trade
:09:28. > :09:31.agreement is made between the US and the UK, the main interest of the
:09:32. > :09:37.British industry, the British companies, workers and citizens sits
:09:38. > :09:40.in Europe. It is in Europe. And so these negotiations will be very
:09:41. > :09:45.important. And I am very open about it. I think that fairness is the
:09:46. > :09:48.basic principle we need to apply in these negotiations. So when Theresa
:09:49. > :09:54.May says, alongside Donald Trump, that, as you, she said to Donald, as
:09:55. > :09:57.you renew your nation, we renew ours, the opportunity is here to
:09:58. > :10:03.renew the special relationship, the post EU Britain and Trump's America
:10:04. > :10:07.will lead again, your response is? My response was yesterday industry
:10:08. > :10:13.is wonderful, I think, I have seen thousands and thousands of people
:10:14. > :10:16.not agree with this -- in the street is wonderful. I don't agree in the
:10:17. > :10:20.rhetorical or the narrative of Trump. I think it is devastating.
:10:21. > :10:25.Also for the American economy. Protectionism, that is also part of
:10:26. > :10:30.his narrative, how you can make an agreement between the UK, which is
:10:31. > :10:34.an open society who believes in trade, I think, and on the other
:10:35. > :10:41.hand an American president who is seeing every trade deficit with
:10:42. > :10:45.whatever country as a threat. And there is a trade deficit from the US
:10:46. > :10:50.towards the UK. So, good luck with it. I think it is more interesting
:10:51. > :10:55.for the UK authorities to work together on a fair partnership with
:10:56. > :10:58.the European Union because that is the biggest market for the British
:10:59. > :11:06.industry. And I want to tease out what you mean by a fair partnership
:11:07. > :11:10.in a moment but before we get to the details on more specific point which
:11:11. > :11:14.I think arises out of what we see in the United States and what we heard
:11:15. > :11:17.from Theresa May and that is a question about security. We will get
:11:18. > :11:22.to economics. On security, you know as well as I do that Britain has
:11:23. > :11:25.been a linchpin of Europeans of security, the armed forces,
:11:26. > :11:30.intelligence services are superior to most in Europe, if you talk to
:11:31. > :11:34.people in Germany, Poland, the Baltic republic, they say we need a
:11:35. > :11:37.close security relationship with Britain come what may, whether
:11:38. > :11:41.Brexit happens or not. That is also my point. I think we have to discuss
:11:42. > :11:48.not only the economic partnership between the UK and European Union.
:11:49. > :11:52.It will be necessary, besides that also, to talk about internal and
:11:53. > :11:57.external security. What I don't want - it is not my position... Leverage
:11:58. > :12:02.to the UK. In a minute. It is what I want to say. I don't want a
:12:03. > :12:05.trade-off between the economic discussion we will do and on the
:12:06. > :12:11.other hand the question of internal- external security. I don't think we
:12:12. > :12:15.can make a trade deal between... Germany has already indicated...
:12:16. > :12:18.Yes, but let's be honest the important thing to do on the
:12:19. > :12:23.security issue from the European side is to create a European defence
:12:24. > :12:29.union as fast as possible. You know the figures. If you don't have
:12:30. > :12:34.Britain it would devalue... You know the figures, 4% we spend on
:12:35. > :12:37.military. We are only capable to do 10%- 12% of the operations of the
:12:38. > :12:41.American army. I am no mathematician. I am a lawyer. I know
:12:42. > :12:46.it means, these figures, we are three or four times less effective.
:12:47. > :12:50.And why are we less effective first remark we don't have a European
:12:51. > :12:54.defence community. We dedicate everything 28 times between the 28
:12:55. > :12:58.member states. I think this whole discussion on security, internal and
:12:59. > :13:02.external, is a good chance to create finally what we needed to already do
:13:03. > :13:08.decades ago, that is to create a European defence union. Right,
:13:09. > :13:12.well... That is also in the book. Let's get to the nitty-gritty of
:13:13. > :13:16.negotiating a complex deal with the UK honest departure from the
:13:17. > :13:19.European Union. Just very quickfire practical questions. You said
:13:20. > :13:23.reasonably you thought getting a trade deal in the two years
:13:24. > :13:27.timeframe was impossible. You stick to that? I think it is impossible.
:13:28. > :13:33.Everybody knows it is impossible. They don't think it is impossible in
:13:34. > :13:40.London. If you speak with ministers they think it is entirely possible.
:13:41. > :13:46.It is 40 - 50 month. It is not two years. At the end of the process,
:13:47. > :13:49.before 2018, we need a consent procedure in the European Parliament
:13:50. > :13:53.because it has to give the green light for the final agreement. So we
:13:54. > :13:58.are going to start at the end of May, beginning of June, that gives
:13:59. > :14:02.us a timeframe of 14 or 15 months. What can you do in this timeframe? I
:14:03. > :14:07.think a withdrawal agreement is the first thing to do. Not an easy thing
:14:08. > :14:11.I can tell you. To put it in common parlance it is the divorce
:14:12. > :14:14.agreement. For the relationship it is the divorce. Then you have to
:14:15. > :14:18.define the new relationship in general terms. There is debate about
:14:19. > :14:22.whether the sets of negotiations, one on the divorce arrangements and
:14:23. > :14:27.one on the new relationship. Take the treaty, Article 50 is clear. It
:14:28. > :14:34.says, first of all, start with your withdrawal agreement in the light of
:14:35. > :14:37.the framework of the future relationship. So you need to have an
:14:38. > :14:50.idea, not more than that, about your To continue... For example, there is
:14:51. > :14:56.an FTA, it will take eight years. How many years in your opinion? I
:14:57. > :15:01.think the whole period of transition and the period of transition will be
:15:02. > :15:05.two years. Besides the two years, we have the 14 or 15 months I'm talking
:15:06. > :15:09.about, you will need a whole transition period to conclude what
:15:10. > :15:14.will be the final agreement with the UK. That's a realistic timeframe.
:15:15. > :15:19.There are cracks appearing it seems to me in the EU position on some of
:15:20. > :15:25.the key fundamental positions of a negotiating deal. Use said the four
:15:26. > :15:29.freedoms that underpin the single market, they're not going to ever be
:15:30. > :15:34.negotiated on and there will be no cherry picking. Others have sent
:15:35. > :15:37.signals suggesting there can be sector by sector deals which Wild
:15:38. > :15:42.Britain leaves the single market will allow Britain preferential
:15:43. > :15:48.access to certain sectors of that single market. Is that possible?
:15:49. > :15:52.They will be no cherry picking, nobody of the three institutions of
:15:53. > :15:56.the EU will accept that. Mrs May has indicated she wants to go out of the
:15:57. > :16:01.union, the single market, the customs union, the court of justice
:16:02. > :16:04.and then say, that is a new programme that interests me and that
:16:05. > :16:08.is a sector that interests me, that will not happen, sorry, because then
:16:09. > :16:13.she has to take the obligations and the payments linked to these
:16:14. > :16:17.advantages. You can never create a status outside the European Union
:16:18. > :16:21.which is more advantageous than to being a member of the European
:16:22. > :16:25.Union. It would not be fair towards the members of the EU and our
:16:26. > :16:29.taxpayers. You want to believe there can be no cherry picking but others
:16:30. > :16:33.have sent a different message. Even Mr Barnier, who is with all due
:16:34. > :16:38.respect more important to the negotiations than you because he is
:16:39. > :16:43.negotiating on behalf... He is negotiating and we have to approve
:16:44. > :16:48.his negotiations. He is a negotiator and according to a leak the Guardian
:16:49. > :16:52.got hold of, he told MEPs that there needed to be a special relationship
:16:53. > :16:57.between big finance and the City of London. That has been denied two
:16:58. > :17:01.times by Mr Barnier. In the nature of politics he had to deny it
:17:02. > :17:06.because it was an authorised to lick. I was in that meeting and he
:17:07. > :17:11.never said it was a conference of committee chairs of the European
:17:12. > :17:16.Parliament. He never said that. Be assured of one thing, cherry
:17:17. > :17:20.picking, we shall not allow. When the German car industry pleads with
:17:21. > :17:25.the German government and says, be real, I'm quoting the head of the
:17:26. > :17:27.Federation of German industry, imposing trade barriers and
:17:28. > :17:32.protectionist measures between the EU and Britain or the two political
:17:33. > :17:36.centres, the EU on one hand, the UK on the other, would be a very
:17:37. > :17:40.foolish thing to do. That's a German-speaking. I agree with all
:17:41. > :17:45.this, I'm against protectionism myself but that's not the point.
:17:46. > :17:49.It's not a point about protectionism. The point is, if, for
:17:50. > :17:54.example, I think that is still the best option, the UK should ask
:17:55. > :17:58.for... To be part of the single market, to continue to be part of
:17:59. > :18:02.the single market, at the same time accepting the four freedoms of the
:18:03. > :18:05.European Union. The problem doesn't start with the European Union, the
:18:06. > :18:09.problem starts with the UK government saying the freedom of
:18:10. > :18:13.movement of people inside the European Union, we don't like it
:18:14. > :18:17.because there are Polish people coming to work on a construction
:18:18. > :18:23.site in London, we don't like it. I think that these people are very
:18:24. > :18:27.necessary in the UK economy. You know what the labour mobility in
:18:28. > :18:33.Europe is? 1%. You know what the labour mobility in the US is? 10%.
:18:34. > :18:37.Ten times bigger. One of the reasons we have 2 million vacancies in
:18:38. > :18:42.Britain and Europe is because we don't have enough labour mobility.
:18:43. > :18:46.Isn't the truth, Mr Verhofstadt, you take the position you take, no
:18:47. > :18:50.cherry picking, no negotiating on the sector deals, you take that
:18:51. > :18:57.position because you're deeply insecure. You worry if Britain is
:18:58. > :19:00.seen to get a deal that works for Britain and makes the British
:19:01. > :19:03.economy successful that it will encourage others in Europe to follow
:19:04. > :19:07.Britain to the exit door. You're deeply insecure about the fragility
:19:08. > :19:11.of the European Union. The problem of the future of the European Union
:19:12. > :19:14.is not so much linked to Brexit negotiations, the problem of the
:19:15. > :19:17.future of the European Union is linked to the courage and
:19:18. > :19:23.willingness of the European leaders for the moment to go forward, like I
:19:24. > :19:26.described in the book, with the unity and integration of the
:19:27. > :19:31.European Union, a defence community and economic governance for the
:19:32. > :19:35.single currency, and extort border and coastguard so the future of the
:19:36. > :19:40.European Union in depends on that. Not so much on Brexit. You've been
:19:41. > :19:44.writing books about the need for a federal Europe for a long time.
:19:45. > :19:50.Europa United States of Europe in 2006. As Prime Minister. You wrote
:19:51. > :19:54.another book in 2009 called how Europe can save the world emerging
:19:55. > :19:59.from crisis. You have written these books, which now looked like museum
:20:00. > :20:04.pieces, the world has moved on, Europe has moved on. It's no more
:20:05. > :20:08.about union and federation. It's the opposite that is happening, you are
:20:09. > :20:12.laughing a bit about my books but at the same time I was the one who said
:20:13. > :20:16.we need a banking union before we can overcome the financial crisis.
:20:17. > :20:22.You agree that the banking union is now in place. How Europe can save
:20:23. > :20:27.the world was your title in 2009. Frankly Europe has done nothing to
:20:28. > :20:30.save the world in the last seven years. We didn't have the
:20:31. > :20:35.institutions on a European level that were necessary. I explained, we
:20:36. > :20:38.are still a loose confederation of nation states based on the unanimity
:20:39. > :20:43.rule where we act too little too late. I have described the financial
:20:44. > :20:47.crisis as a typical example of that and I said we need a banking union
:20:48. > :20:51.and today we have a banking union. You laughed at me as Prime Minister
:20:52. > :20:56.when I proposed a number of initiatives for the defence union.
:20:57. > :21:00.Today these initiatives, European headquarters, are on the table. When
:21:01. > :21:05.you talk like this, Mr Verhofstadt, you play into the hands of people
:21:06. > :21:09.like Nigel Farage, one of the key Leave campaigners, who says you are
:21:10. > :21:15.a dangerous fanatic and you have long anti- British. That is complete
:21:16. > :21:20.nonsense. I am racing with an old car, it is a 1954 right hand drive
:21:21. > :21:25.Aston Martin, how can you be more British than that? I'll tell you,
:21:26. > :21:30.look at your own words, I wonder about your attitude to Britain. You
:21:31. > :21:35.said in 2015 according to Politico, the website," Politically the UK is
:21:36. > :21:40.already on its way to becoming an adversary rather than a trusted
:21:41. > :21:48.partner of the EU". Certainly that is what Mr Farage is exactly
:21:49. > :21:52.standing for. These are your words. When I am attacking him I am
:21:53. > :21:56.attacking not Britain, I am attacking somebody who wants to
:21:57. > :22:00.destroy the European Union. Europe is on its way to becoming an
:22:01. > :22:05.adversary, is that the way you feel about the UK? Absolutely not, what I
:22:06. > :22:09.hope is we can find a fair partnership with people like Mr
:22:10. > :22:13.Farage, at the heart of the Brexit campaign and looking to destroy the
:22:14. > :22:17.European Union, that's my problem and that is what I will fight. The
:22:18. > :22:22.thing is, it's not just about Britain. Win you said of the Brexit
:22:23. > :22:28.campaign, you described it as the latest high mass of tribalism in
:22:29. > :22:32.Europe. It isn't just actually in Britain where people are expressing
:22:33. > :22:35.great scepticism about the European Union, great scepticism about
:22:36. > :22:40.immigration and its effect on Europe. You could look at Le Pen in
:22:41. > :22:44.France and Geert Wilders in the Netherlands. The gap Poland, look at
:22:45. > :22:50.Hungary, so many nations across the European Union -- look at. I don't
:22:51. > :22:54.deny these people exist and I don't agree with these people but I can
:22:55. > :22:58.tell you one thing, the public opinion in our countries on the
:22:59. > :23:02.continent in the EU is not against Europe, they are against this
:23:03. > :23:05.European Union. That's why I'm saying this book is maybe more
:23:06. > :23:09.Eurosceptic than all other books that have been published because I
:23:10. > :23:14.think this European Union will not survive. What you need to do to
:23:15. > :23:18.convince people who are voting today voting for Le Pen offering a vision
:23:19. > :23:23.for the future, showing them unity for Europe can tackle the financial
:23:24. > :23:30.crisis, the economic fallout of it, the migration flows, refugees coming
:23:31. > :23:33.to Europe. Security issues as well. You have been peddling the
:23:34. > :23:38.federalist dream for ten years, at what point do you realise it's a
:23:39. > :23:43.dream and not a reality? The banking union today is a reality because we
:23:44. > :23:46.have pushed for it. I also think tomorrow the European defence union
:23:47. > :23:52.will be a reality because the world is changing and we cannot count on
:23:53. > :23:57.Mr Trump. So it will arrive. IC four example what is happening in France,
:23:58. > :24:02.the French presidency, Macron, you're following it, what he is
:24:03. > :24:06.saying about Europe, a French president saying we don't find
:24:07. > :24:10.sovereignty on a national level, we need it on a European level. Let say
:24:11. > :24:15.a Frenchman was saying that, you need to invite him on as soon as
:24:16. > :24:19.possible. We will get you back to discuss the state of Brexit in a few
:24:20. > :24:24.months or years time. But right now we have to end there Guy
:24:25. > :24:32.Verhofstadt, thank you for being on HARDtalk.
:24:33. > :24:36.It is really soggy outside right now, especially in eastern areas