:00:00. > :00:13.Now on BBC News, it's time for HARDtalk.
:00:14. > :00:21.Welcome to HARDtalk I am Sarah Montague. The refugee crisis is one
:00:22. > :00:25.of the world's most enormous problems. 60 million people have
:00:26. > :00:30.fled their homes and countries. My guest today says the problem is
:00:31. > :00:50.fixable, and we can do it easily. He is the Economist, Professor Sir Paul
:00:51. > :00:54.Collier. The solution, he argues,
:00:55. > :00:57.is to give refugees jobs. In doing so he suggests
:00:58. > :00:59.everyone will benefit. But if the answer is so simple,
:01:00. > :01:15.why has it not been done before? Professor Sir Paul Collier, welcome
:01:16. > :01:20.to HARDtalk. Thank you for having me. You have said, of the Syrian
:01:21. > :01:25.refugee crisis, that it is entirely manageable, we can do it easily. Yet
:01:26. > :01:33.we are talking about millions of desperate people on the move. Why do
:01:34. > :01:38.you say it is so fixable? Because it is. The reason we have a mess is
:01:39. > :01:41.because of two reasons. One is that we have in international system
:01:42. > :01:47.which is hopelessly broken. We have a system built in 1950 that is
:01:48. > :01:53.completely unfit for the 21st century problems. We never changed
:01:54. > :01:59.it. We've got a broken system which was then confronted by a potentially
:02:00. > :02:06.perfectly manageable crisis, the Syrian refugee crisis. What the
:02:07. > :02:18.responses were were then a bunch of political headless chickens. They
:02:19. > :02:24.went through three phases, one was heartlessness, where they ignored
:02:25. > :02:28.the problem. Refugees fled to Jordan, Turkey and 11 on, and those
:02:29. > :02:35.three countries were left to bear the burden. That was the phase of
:02:36. > :02:37.heartlessness -- Lebanon on. Then, briefly, for about five months, we
:02:38. > :02:47.went to the phase of headless mess. And a small proportion of those
:02:48. > :03:06.refugees moved to Europe, We're not, we're talking less
:03:07. > :03:11.than a million Syrian There are 10 million
:03:12. > :03:13.displaced refugees. Most refugees, a large majority
:03:14. > :03:17.stayed put in the regional havens. Of course, there were other
:03:18. > :03:20.migrants, though, who joined Of course, of course,
:03:21. > :03:24.migrants and refugees are very But I interrupted you -
:03:25. > :03:28.that was the headless phase. And then, very rapidly,
:03:29. > :03:30.that door got slammed, and now we're back in the heartless
:03:31. > :03:33.phase - ship them back And you have said that
:03:34. > :03:37.if there had been - your words - "A timely application of the heart
:03:38. > :03:41.and the head," we could have And you went on to say,
:03:42. > :03:45."There needs have been no deaths through drowning,
:03:46. > :03:48.no exodus of the skilled to Germany, Let's start with
:03:49. > :03:59.the drownings, right? The drownings were
:04:00. > :04:00.entirely avoidable. If Europe had wanted to open
:04:01. > :04:03.its doors to Syrian refugees, if, then the sensible thing to do
:04:04. > :04:06.was to provide a safe means of transport from
:04:07. > :04:09.the haven countries, right? The message "Swim to Europe" was not
:04:10. > :04:17.an intelligent message. It made it inevitable that
:04:18. > :04:20.what we would get would be the South American people smugglers
:04:21. > :04:23.coming in, the big criminal businesses, who then sold
:04:24. > :04:25.places on little boats. Not only did people drown,
:04:26. > :04:47.but because those places were so expensive, the average
:04:48. > :04:50.Syrian - a year's income was not OK, but to take on your point about,
:04:51. > :04:59.if we had applied the head and the heart, how are you saying
:05:00. > :05:04.that we should have done that? Go back to 2011, when the Syrian
:05:05. > :05:10.refugee crisis started. As I said, the refugees
:05:11. > :05:25.are not migrants. They're actually people who have
:05:26. > :05:30.chosen to stay in their country. They flee out of fear -
:05:31. > :05:33.fear of disorder, in some other We've got to write this book,
:05:34. > :05:44.Refuge, because Alex and I, my co-author, were brought
:05:45. > :05:46.into Jordan by the government... Yeah, yeah, we were brought
:05:47. > :05:51.into Jordan because the Jordanian government said, "Help,
:05:52. > :05:53.we've got a million refugees, it's a small country, pretty poor,
:05:54. > :05:56.what on earth do we do?" We were then taken to
:05:57. > :06:05.the main refugee camp. Alex, my co-author, director
:06:06. > :06:08.of the Refugee Studies Centre, I'm an economist who works
:06:09. > :06:25.on poor countries. I'm not really familiar
:06:26. > :06:27.with refugees. What I saw in Zaatari
:06:28. > :06:29.really deeply shocked me. These were people who
:06:30. > :06:31.were being warehoused, They've got free food
:06:32. > :06:35.and free shelter, that's the model of the camp,
:06:36. > :06:37.so that's the model we've run for over 60 years -
:06:38. > :06:41.feed them for free, clothe them And that's it -
:06:42. > :06:45.schooling, no, work, no. There was a light-bulb
:06:46. > :06:48.moment for you. We went to this camp,
:06:49. > :06:54.as I say, Alex was familiar, I wasn't, I was shocked,
:06:55. > :06:56.I was deeply moved. I was talking to refugees
:06:57. > :06:59.in their homes, I'm talking to a 16-year-old kid,
:07:00. > :07:01."Are you at school?" It's a Portakabin,
:07:02. > :07:11.you know, a container. Brothers and sisters, "Oh, yeah,
:07:12. > :07:14.I've got an 18-year-old brother." 18-year-old brother back in Syria,
:07:15. > :07:20.what's he doing in Syria? And then our somewhat bored
:07:21. > :07:25.Jordanian government hosts said, "You know, actually,
:07:26. > :07:28.once we are here, we've got time to show you something
:07:29. > :07:30.that is really cool, we are pretty proud of,
:07:31. > :07:42.and nothing to do with refugees." "It's the King Hussein industrial
:07:43. > :07:45.zone that we've just equipped, ?100 million spent on it,
:07:46. > :07:47.15 minutes away." Great big industrial zone
:07:48. > :07:52.connected to the grid Because Jordanians didn't
:07:53. > :07:56.want to go there to work. So for four years, a big empty
:07:57. > :08:00.industrial zone which could have employed everybody in that camp
:08:01. > :08:02.was sitting empty, and nearly 100,000 Syrian refugees
:08:03. > :08:05.were sitting idly in a camp, OK, but before you come onto it,
:08:06. > :08:17.we should explain that the Jordanian government had approached
:08:18. > :08:20.you because you had a record, you are an Oxford academic,
:08:21. > :08:22.but you had worked for the World Bank, you had
:08:23. > :08:25.advised David Cameron, you had advised, recently advised -
:08:26. > :08:27.still advising, I think - Chancellor Angela Merkel,
:08:28. > :08:30.so you had a history of giving advice and being listened
:08:31. > :08:38.to by governments. I try and give practical
:08:39. > :08:40.under-the-radar-screen advice that I'm an economist, and so I work
:08:41. > :08:58.on poorer countries, But I try to come up with practical
:08:59. > :09:03.things that governments can do. So you are behind policies that
:09:04. > :09:06.David Cameron has come up with - as a result of your book
:09:07. > :09:09.The Bottom Billion and Plundering... So you say to the Jordanians,
:09:10. > :09:14.they take you to this ?100 million And so we say, "Can we put
:09:15. > :09:18.two and two together?" "Can we create some
:09:19. > :09:24.jobs in the camps?" What Jordan was really anxious
:09:25. > :09:27.about, the reason they haven't let refugees work was pretty obvious,
:09:28. > :09:29.that they couldn't provide enough jobs for their own citizens,
:09:30. > :09:32.let alone for refugees. So they saw letting
:09:33. > :09:34.refugees work as a threat. So what we suggested was,
:09:35. > :09:37.actually, you've got a big empty industrial zone,
:09:38. > :09:39.why is it empty? Because Jordanians don't
:09:40. > :09:42.want to work there and firms Why don't you use the fact that
:09:43. > :09:55.you've got all these refugees as an opportunity to get
:09:56. > :09:59.you on the map, to get Jordan noticed as a place where industry
:10:00. > :10:02.can come and bring jobs? We put that to the Jordanian
:10:03. > :10:05.government, and it was like a light Refugees could be an opportunity
:10:06. > :10:15.for our own economic development. And so they've developed what's
:10:16. > :10:18.called the Jordanian model now. And that involved, first, we went
:10:19. > :10:21.to Brussels, and we persuaded the European Commission
:10:22. > :10:23.to change its trade The European Community had got trade
:10:24. > :10:35.barriers against Jordan. Well, nobody is going to produce
:10:36. > :10:38.goods to sell in Europe So the European Commission agreed,
:10:39. > :10:43.OK, we'll give you ten years' open, Then I used my previous
:10:44. > :10:47.connections with the World Bank And they said, "Of course
:10:48. > :11:02.we are missing in action, Jordan is an upper middle income
:11:03. > :11:06.country, we're not allowed to work I said, "Ask the board, take
:11:07. > :11:13.a project on refugees to the board." They said refugees are nothing to do
:11:14. > :11:16.with the World Bank - UNHCR has a monopoly,
:11:17. > :11:21.has had a monopoly on refugees for the last 60 years,
:11:22. > :11:23.but it is a purely But if you're going to get
:11:24. > :11:27.people jobs, where are Who are the companies in whose
:11:28. > :11:31.interest it is to go to what arguably is a temporary
:11:32. > :11:35.setup, somewhere in another country? We've been doing that for decades,
:11:36. > :11:37.it's called globalisation. Germany has created thousands
:11:38. > :11:39.upon thousands, probably But we are talking
:11:40. > :11:42.about conversations that you first had two years ago,
:11:43. > :11:46.and it was launched a year ago - what companies are now
:11:47. > :11:48.offering jobs in Jordan? We've now got 39,000 jobs
:11:49. > :11:51.already created, right? You've got 39,000 refugees
:11:52. > :12:02.working in Jordan who That wouldn't have
:12:03. > :12:05.otherwise been working. And this is because of international
:12:06. > :12:07.companies saying... The whole thing only
:12:08. > :12:11.got launched last year, Last September, the king of Jordan,
:12:12. > :12:19.King Abdullah, said on CBS that Jordan has always been a place that
:12:20. > :12:23.opens its arms to refugees, but now, and he made the point,
:12:24. > :12:25."A 20% increase in our population, such is the scale of the refugee
:12:26. > :12:29.crisis, the huge burden on our country, we are in dire
:12:30. > :12:31.straits," and he talked Most were in towns looking for work,
:12:32. > :12:39.driving up rents, 160,000 Syrian kids in Jordan's schools,
:12:40. > :12:41.unemployment skyrocketing, "Our health sector saturated,
:12:42. > :12:43.our schools going through difficult And he made the point
:12:44. > :12:53.about how difficult it is. In a way, this goes against that,
:12:54. > :12:57.doesn't it, if you're Not at all, because part of the deal
:12:58. > :13:06.is that the jobs come for both So the ratio that we are working
:13:07. > :13:11.to is for every 70 jobs for refugees, 30 for Jordanians,
:13:12. > :13:13.and so it's a win-win. So the companies come in,
:13:14. > :13:16.they create new employment opportunities, new firms
:13:17. > :13:18.in the zones, and those That model, the Jordanian model,
:13:19. > :13:25.has already been copied in Africa. The government of Ethiopia is doing
:13:26. > :13:34.it now in their industrial zones. So your argument that there have
:13:35. > :13:38.been 30,000 plus new jobs created, there have been, what,
:13:39. > :13:40.15,000 jobs for Jordanians? Yes, yes, yes, these
:13:41. > :13:42.are doable things, right? And don't forget, this is starting
:13:43. > :13:45.cold from a new idea, where no institution is used
:13:46. > :13:52.to doing it. If we'd had this system in place,
:13:53. > :13:55.if the global refugee system had been changed years ago,
:13:56. > :13:58.as it needed to be changed, if we'd had a system
:13:59. > :14:01.that was fit for purpose, But you've still got a problem,
:14:02. > :14:24.though, because you've got a neighbouring country,
:14:25. > :14:26.and your argument is, "Let's keep refugees local,
:14:27. > :14:28.because they ultimately But they have children,
:14:29. > :14:31.they need health services. The pressure on services,
:14:32. > :14:33.and the scale of this, whether it is Jordan or Lebanon
:14:34. > :14:36.or Turkey, we are talking about a massive influx of people
:14:37. > :14:39.that is really overwhelming The World Bank, in October,
:14:40. > :14:47.did go to the board, it did approve $300 million loan
:14:48. > :14:50.to Jordan on soft terms to provide jobs in the industrial zones
:14:51. > :14:52.for refugees and Jordanians, the first loan it had ever done
:14:53. > :14:56.on refugees in 60 years, and at the same time approved soft
:14:57. > :14:59.money for Lebanon to provide schooling for children,
:15:00. > :15:01.for refugee children. So we can use international
:15:02. > :15:03.aid money both for jobs and for the social services that
:15:04. > :15:06.are being stretched OK, so your argument is extend
:15:07. > :15:20.the rights of the refugees in a way, not just shelter and food,
:15:21. > :15:23.keep those, but put alongside Of course, and a right
:15:24. > :15:35.to decent social services, But the moment you do that,
:15:36. > :15:39.you have effectively incentivised them to stay,
:15:40. > :15:41.because the argument that they should remain local
:15:42. > :15:44.is that they will go home. But if you effectively create
:15:45. > :15:46.a new parallel life, where it is still going to be years,
:15:47. > :15:49.and they have invested perhaps in a business,
:15:50. > :15:55.why would they then go home? Well, most people,
:15:56. > :15:57.actually, want to go home. Don't forget, these people,
:15:58. > :15:59.that is mostly what they Conflicts do end, and you can think
:16:00. > :16:04.of this as actually incubating the jobs that can move back
:16:05. > :16:06.to the post-conflict society. When Syria gets back to peace,
:16:07. > :16:09.which it will, the firms that are operating in Jordan,
:16:10. > :16:12.if there were workforce, a lot of their workforce wants
:16:13. > :16:15.to go back to Syria, they can set up
:16:16. > :16:17.an operation in Syria. One of the miracles of capitalism
:16:18. > :16:20.is that it's not a zero-sum game. If it's profitable in Jordan,
:16:21. > :16:23.it can stay in Jordan. If a chunk of your workforce
:16:24. > :16:26.is already skilled and trained and wants to go home to Syria,
:16:27. > :16:29.you can set up So give us an example of a company
:16:30. > :16:41.that is employing people now One of the things that
:16:42. > :16:50.happening is who needs refuge Not just Syrian people -
:16:51. > :16:53.Syrian businesses. And so now Syrian businesses
:16:54. > :16:56.are moving to the zones, weren't allowed to do before -
:16:57. > :16:59.there was no protection So businesses that were operating
:17:00. > :17:12.in Syria are moving to Jordan If you were being bombed to bits
:17:13. > :17:17.in Aleppo, you might think it's They're getting jobs
:17:18. > :17:23.for their own people as well. As I say, capitalism
:17:24. > :17:25.is not zero-sum. If you set up a succesful
:17:26. > :17:28.firm in Jordan, why Even if you can then restart
:17:29. > :17:36.the operation back in Syria. Earlier this month, we had the mayor
:17:37. > :17:39.of a town in Lebanon, the mayor of Naameh,
:17:40. > :17:41.called Charbel Matar, saying, "We have to stand
:17:42. > :17:44.with our own people first before we stand with the Syrians,"
:17:45. > :17:46.and he was saying that as he was issuing a decree to order
:17:47. > :17:50.businesses owned or operated by Syrians to close,
:17:51. > :17:52.which was in keeping with the law. Yeah, I mean, that's
:17:53. > :18:10.tragic, isn't it? So it's no good lecturing
:18:11. > :18:13.the government of Jordan, saying, It's no good preaching -
:18:14. > :18:16.we've got to make it in the government of Lebanon's
:18:17. > :18:19.interests to do things that are helpful to refugees,
:18:20. > :18:22.as well as to their own population. But their population is 4.5 million,
:18:23. > :18:25.they've got more than 1 I mean those are just numbers
:18:26. > :18:29.that are unsustainable, I think that's probably right,
:18:30. > :18:41.I think Lebanon is kind When you get to that
:18:42. > :18:45.stage, you need... Actually, before you get to that
:18:46. > :18:48.stage, you need some sort of threshold which says,
:18:49. > :18:50.now other countries have got What about something
:18:51. > :18:54.like what you called the headless policy of Chancellor Angela Merkel,
:18:55. > :18:57.allowing in many refugees Why has that, in your
:18:58. > :19:00.terms, not worked? Well, I think, first of all,
:19:01. > :19:05.it was a noble gesture, so I'm still working
:19:06. > :19:07.with the Chancellor - this was a noble thing to do, but it
:19:08. > :19:11.wasn't a thought-through thing. It was done very quick decision,
:19:12. > :19:13.wasn't thought through. You're working very closely with her
:19:14. > :19:16.at the moment, you speak to her, you tell her it was a mistake
:19:17. > :19:20.and she says what? She's reversed the policy -
:19:21. > :19:22.I don't need to tell her it was a mistake,
:19:23. > :19:25.she's reversed the policy. Has she acknowledged
:19:26. > :19:27.to you that it was a mistake? Of course not - politicians don't
:19:28. > :19:31.use words like mistakes, do they? Something like less than 5%
:19:32. > :19:35.of the Syrian population is in Europe, but something
:19:36. > :19:38.between a third and a half of all Syrians with university
:19:39. > :19:41.educations are now in Europe. And your argument that it's
:19:42. > :19:44.a tragedy is because, ultimately, They're the very people who will be
:19:45. > :19:49.needed to rebuild the country. I do a lot of work
:19:50. > :19:52.on post-conflict countries. The real bottleneck
:19:53. > :20:02.is skilled people. But so German policy, you advise,
:20:03. > :20:05.should be to encourage them It depends how long
:20:06. > :20:16.it is before they can go back. At some stage, it's obviously
:20:17. > :20:19.sensible to think that But at the moment, yes, it's too
:20:20. > :20:24.soon to settle people for life. They should be basically
:20:25. > :20:26.prepared with the skills Germany is the ultimate successful
:20:27. > :20:29.model of high-skill, high-training, high-credentials,
:20:30. > :20:31.high-minimum-wage job market. So Syrians, even those
:20:32. > :20:33.with a university education, are utterly unsuited for the jobs
:20:34. > :20:36.that Germany has, unfortunately. It would be far easier for Germany
:20:37. > :20:41.to create jobs for refugees So those refugees, Syrian
:20:42. > :20:54.refugees in Germany, They'd be the elite -
:20:55. > :21:06.they'd have a job, yeah. I'm not in the business
:21:07. > :21:10.of sending people back. But that is the logic
:21:11. > :21:18.of your position. The German government,
:21:19. > :21:20.I would remind you, is actually sending people back,
:21:21. > :21:22.that's the model now. I believe it's sensible
:21:23. > :21:25.for Europe to take some. One of our principles is solidarity,
:21:26. > :21:27.everybody, every country has a duty of rescue,
:21:28. > :21:30.and that duty of rescue You talk about politicians acting
:21:31. > :21:39.as headless chickens, you also talked about an international system
:21:40. > :21:42.that was broken - in part, because it's dependent on the UNHCR,
:21:43. > :21:46.which you say is effectively working to laws that were devised
:21:47. > :21:48.just after 1950. We have a situation now
:21:49. > :21:50.where the president, the new American president,
:21:51. > :21:52.is talking about cutting funding, a 28% budget cut to diplomacy
:21:53. > :21:55.and foreign aid, and that would include the money
:21:56. > :21:58.that goes to the UNHCR, and America funds more
:21:59. > :22:01.than a quarter of the UNHCR. Given how critical you are of it,
:22:02. > :22:04.do you see that, actually, We talk a lot with UNHCR,
:22:05. > :22:20.and one of their responses to our argument is, "We are not
:22:21. > :22:23.a job agency." Well, that is true,
:22:24. > :22:26.UNHCR isn't a job agency, but unfortunately what refugees most
:22:27. > :22:28.need is a job agency. So either UNHCR changes staffing,
:22:29. > :22:31.skills up, and actually becomes capable of operating in the economic
:22:32. > :22:34.space, getting business Or we bring in other agencies that
:22:35. > :22:53.are already doing that - The tragedy of the last 60
:22:54. > :22:57.years is UNHCR has had a monopoly, and it's
:22:58. > :22:59.a humanitarian-only mandate. And so it's what,
:23:00. > :23:01.contributed to the problem? Yes, it's perpetuated
:23:02. > :23:04.a problem that shouldn't have You know, world numbers
:23:05. > :23:07.of displaced and refugees But Richard Gowan, who's a UN expert
:23:08. > :23:20.at the European Council on Foreign Relations,
:23:21. > :23:22.talked about the cuts, saying they would cause chaos
:23:23. > :23:26.and leave a gaping hole that other The camps, the free food,
:23:27. > :23:34.the free shelter - The whole we need to fill,
:23:35. > :23:39.which is at the moment a glaringly Tragically, at the moment,
:23:40. > :23:43.most politicians are reacting The narrative has become,
:23:44. > :23:46."We've got to keep refugees out, When you talk to people
:23:47. > :23:50.about refugees now, instead of their instinct being compassion,
:23:51. > :23:52.the instinct is fear. The big asset that refugees should
:23:53. > :23:55.have is automatically triggering the compassion of the vast
:23:56. > :24:12.bulk of humanity. Paul Collier, thank
:24:13. > :24:14.you for coming on HARDtalk. Our weather's set to turn a little
:24:15. > :24:46.bit milder over the next couple of days, quieting down
:24:47. > :24:48.in many respects. But before we get there,
:24:49. > :24:51.yesterday we had some really big thunderstorms around,
:24:52. > :24:54.this one brought some hail to West