:00:11. > :00:17.Welcome to HARDtalk from Dublin. I am Steven sack cur, Ireland has
:00:18. > :00:22.bounced back from the financial crisis of 2008, but now it is become
:00:23. > :00:28.swept by a new wave of apprehension, and this time it is all about
:00:29. > :00:33.Brexit. Because when Britain leaves the European Union, Ireland will
:00:34. > :00:38.suffer significant collateral damage, in terms of job, trade and
:00:39. > :00:45.the status of its borders. My guest is Ireland's trade and Foreign
:00:46. > :00:45.Ministerer Charles Flanagan. Will Brexit have catastrophic
:00:46. > :01:18.consequences? Across the Irish Sea. Charles Flanagan,
:01:19. > :01:19.welcome to HARDtalk. Let me begin with some
:01:20. > :01:22.words from your boss, He said Brexit represents
:01:23. > :01:25.the greatest economic and social challenge to this
:01:26. > :01:27.island in 50 years. Now, he said that some time ago, not
:01:28. > :01:30.long after the British referendum. Do you feel that way
:01:31. > :01:32.about Brexit today? The withdrawal of our neighbours,
:01:33. > :01:39.the UK, from the EU is potentially It certainly wasn't the result
:01:40. > :01:45.we expected or wanted. We're very disappointed,
:01:46. > :01:48.but we've got to deal with the cards This is potentially very damaging
:01:49. > :01:59.for the equilibrium of Europe. The market of 550 million
:02:00. > :02:02.people, the great peace And with Ireland, as the nearest
:02:03. > :02:06.neighbours of the UK, in the event of there
:02:07. > :02:08.being adverse consequences, well then we're most likely
:02:09. > :02:18.here to suffer most. That must make you very
:02:19. > :02:22.angry, doesn't it? That here you are, unable, really,
:02:23. > :02:27.to have an influence over an event That here you are, unable, really,
:02:28. > :02:31.to have any influence over an event which could be catastrophic
:02:32. > :02:33.for you and your country? We're not so much
:02:34. > :02:34.angry as disappointed. That's why in the context
:02:35. > :02:37.of the negotiations that are about to begin, we are anxious
:02:38. > :02:39.to impress upon everybody, our friends in the UK,
:02:40. > :02:45.our family in the EU, that this needs to be handled
:02:46. > :02:51.in an orderly manner. Some of the preliminary jousting has
:02:52. > :02:56.not been in that direction. That said, we have to look forward
:02:57. > :02:59.now to the negotiations being conducted in a way that
:03:00. > :03:02.ensures that the parties remain around the table and that these
:03:03. > :03:04.negotiations, this challenge, is dealt in a way that ensures
:03:05. > :03:11.there is a deal at the end. Let's talk with your trade minister
:03:12. > :03:16.hat on, as well as Foreign Minister You, more than anybody else
:03:17. > :03:20.in Ireland, I dare say, are aware of the reliance of Ireland
:03:21. > :03:24.on the two-way trade of the UK, worth something like 60
:03:25. > :03:26.billion euros every year. Your own economic forecasters say
:03:27. > :03:30.that if there is a hard Brexit it is going to cost your economy
:03:31. > :03:33.tens of thousands of jobs, possibly 4% of GDP over the next
:03:34. > :03:36.ten years, if not more. This is one of the greatest
:03:37. > :03:45.challenges that we have faced as a state since our
:03:46. > :03:47.independence in the 1920s. Certainly the challenge
:03:48. > :03:50.of my generation and I believe Certainly the challenge
:03:51. > :03:52.of my generation, and I believe it's important therefore
:03:53. > :03:54.that the Irish priorities are very much to the fore
:03:55. > :03:56.in the context of We are very much reliant
:03:57. > :04:07.on our neighbours in terms of our agri-food and beverage
:04:08. > :04:09.business, in particular. Ireland, over the centuries,
:04:10. > :04:11.has been the bread basket or the main food supplier
:04:12. > :04:14.of Great Britain. But we haven't had all
:04:15. > :04:20.of our eggs in one basket. Our membership of the EU has
:04:21. > :04:22.ensured that we have And while you speak very highly
:04:23. > :04:30.about our trade relationship with Britain, our trade relationship
:04:31. > :04:33.with our European colleagues But that's not to say I'm
:04:34. > :04:38.by no means underscoring or underplaying our
:04:39. > :04:43.relationship with Britain. No, and this is what
:04:44. > :04:44.you said recently. You said, on Brexit,
:04:45. > :04:46.resolving Irish issues is absolutely crucial and the EU
:04:47. > :04:49.and the UK must show real and positive goodwill because,
:04:50. > :04:54.this is the key phrase, But patently no deal is an option,
:04:55. > :05:01.because Theresa May has told us that she would rather walk away
:05:02. > :05:04.with no deal than sign up Yes, but I think undoubtedly
:05:05. > :05:09.the worst of all relationships between the UK and the
:05:10. > :05:12.European Union is no deal, because that would mean a reversal
:05:13. > :05:23.back to old trade organisation routes and regulations and I can't
:05:24. > :05:27.for the life of me see how that could be appropriate or suitable
:05:28. > :05:29.or advantageous to Britain It certainly wouldn't be
:05:30. > :05:32.the Ireland because your livestock producers
:05:33. > :05:34.would be killed by that. So much of their trade
:05:35. > :05:37.is with the UK and if, as I understand it, you reverted
:05:38. > :05:40.to WTO rules and tariffs on meat exports, Ireland's industry
:05:41. > :05:46.would be decimated. Accepting that and also
:05:47. > :05:48.looking beyond trade, No deal, in the event
:05:49. > :05:52.of there being a UK withdrawal from the talks, what happens to UK
:05:53. > :05:55.citizens in their millions, What happens to EU citizens
:05:56. > :05:58.in their hundreds of thousands enjoying life and work
:05:59. > :06:03.and benefits in the UK? So, to my mind, no deal,
:06:04. > :06:06.or a walk out, or a difficulty that will not result in a settlement
:06:07. > :06:09.is the worst of all options and that's why, again,
:06:10. > :06:12.I have to stress the need on all parties to ensure
:06:13. > :06:14.that the process commences in an orderly way,
:06:15. > :06:21.with a set agenda. And from the Irish perspective,
:06:22. > :06:24.one of our priorities will be and must be that there is as close
:06:25. > :06:27.as possible a relationship In essence, you are saying
:06:28. > :06:39.to your European colleagues who are dealing with
:06:40. > :06:42.the Brexit file, please don't have the mindset of punishing
:06:43. > :06:44.Britain, because if you punish Britain you're actually
:06:45. > :06:48.going to punish Ireland too. Acknowledging the Irish priorities
:06:49. > :06:51.has been my job as foreign minister. I have a constitutional
:06:52. > :06:53.duty to the Irish people And what I've been saying
:06:54. > :06:57.to my EU colleagues is that this This should not be exacting
:06:58. > :07:11.retribution on any of its members, in particular the UK,
:07:12. > :07:15.for leaving the family. This needs to be dealt
:07:16. > :07:17.with in an orderly manner but acknowledging that it's
:07:18. > :07:19.a very, very serious If one is to get to the specifics
:07:20. > :07:37.of the challenges, perhaps the biggest of all is what on earth
:07:38. > :07:42.to do about the more than 400 kilometre long border
:07:43. > :07:44.between your country and Northern Ireland, which of course
:07:45. > :07:47.is part of the UK. What is going to happen
:07:48. > :07:48.on that border? Are there going to be border posts,
:07:49. > :07:51.walls or fences and customs officials checking every
:07:52. > :07:53.person and vehicle crossing your border
:07:54. > :07:54.with Northern Ireland? We don't want our relationship,
:07:55. > :07:56.the relationship between the UK and Ireland,
:07:57. > :07:58.which has been carefully nurtured to the peace process,
:07:59. > :08:02.with particular reference to East-West relations,
:08:03. > :08:04.between Dublin and London that are on the warmest and most
:08:05. > :08:07.positive footing since our We don't want anything
:08:08. > :08:10.to happen that will disrupt or damage that
:08:11. > :08:19.positive relationship. I'm sorry, but something
:08:20. > :08:21.is happening that is disrupting all of that and it is called Brexit
:08:22. > :08:24.and you have to live It is going to happen
:08:25. > :08:28.and you are going to have to cope with it and it does mean that
:08:29. > :08:31.after Britain has left, and Theresa May says
:08:32. > :08:33.there will be no membership of the single market
:08:34. > :08:35.or the customs union, there's going to have
:08:36. > :08:37.to be a meaningful border between your country
:08:38. > :08:40.and Northern Ireland. One of the most critical elements
:08:41. > :08:47.of these negotiations, and it was identified
:08:48. > :08:53.by Prime Minister May and by Commissioner Barnier
:08:54. > :08:56.and my Commission Juncker, in fact by all of the dispatches
:08:57. > :08:59.leading up to the start the unique and particular
:09:00. > :09:02.circumstances on the island of Ireland have been
:09:03. > :09:05.appreciated and acknowledged. We've enjoyed what has been an open
:09:06. > :09:11.border since the peace process, since the historic Good Friday
:09:12. > :09:14.peace agreement of 1998, and I believe it's essential
:09:15. > :09:16.in the context of these negotiations Well, let's just negotiate matters
:09:17. > :09:28.forward and that's why I'm very pleased that Commissioner Barnier,
:09:29. > :09:30.the chief negotiator, I've had the Luxembourg Foreign
:09:31. > :09:38.Minister at the border a few weeks I believe it's important that EU
:09:39. > :09:41.leaders and negotiators see the critical progress that has been
:09:42. > :09:44.made in terms of people to people relations and peace
:09:45. > :09:48.on the island of Ireland. Yes or no - do you believe
:09:49. > :09:51.it is tenable, possible, that border posts and fences
:09:52. > :09:57.could go up along the border? I say no to border
:09:58. > :10:00.posts and no to fences. But I'm not saying anything
:10:01. > :10:05.fundamentally different to what I'm hearing
:10:06. > :10:08.from Prime Minister May, from Secretary of State Davis,
:10:09. > :10:12.from the Foreign Secretary and from my colleague,
:10:13. > :10:15.Secretary of State Brokenshire. I believe we have to work
:10:16. > :10:18.with the EU to ensure that the open border between Ireland
:10:19. > :10:20.and Northern Ireland remains, on the basis that 30,000 people
:10:21. > :10:22.cross every day to work, that doesn't include
:10:23. > :10:25.people going to sporting That open border is a must
:10:26. > :10:41.in all circumstances. I'll tell you what I'm
:10:42. > :10:43.hearing from some quarters, the idea that Northern Ireland
:10:44. > :10:45.could in some way get special dispensation,
:10:46. > :10:47.whatever the wider agreement between the UK and EU
:10:48. > :10:49.in terms of Customs, Northern Ireland could
:10:50. > :10:51.in essence be the same customs area as your
:10:52. > :10:55.country, Ireland. If that were to be the case,
:10:56. > :10:58.the defacto, real, sort of, trade border between the island
:10:59. > :11:01.of Ireland and the rest of the UK would be the Irish Sea
:11:02. > :11:04.and it would be at airports that the real regulation
:11:05. > :11:06.and monitoring and checking would take place, going
:11:07. > :11:10.into the rest of the UK. Is that possible from
:11:11. > :11:16.your point of view? I'm not going to get
:11:17. > :11:18.into the endgame now, but in two years' time I think
:11:19. > :11:21.it is important that we have whatever framework to ensure
:11:22. > :11:23.that the peace process on the island that the very positive trading
:11:24. > :11:30.relations between the north and south is not disrupted and we
:11:31. > :11:38.can ensure the border is open. That would mean looking at advanced
:11:39. > :11:41.technological devices, to ensure if there are to be checks
:11:42. > :11:45.for goods and services that they can take place in a way that doesn't
:11:46. > :11:47.disrupt traffic between Ireland, And when we talk about the peace
:11:48. > :11:55.processes it is important to note the positive role the EU had
:11:56. > :11:58.in framing that peace process and it's another reason
:11:59. > :12:00.why I very much regret and am very saddened
:12:01. > :12:02.at the withdrawal of the UK when I acknowledge the role the EU
:12:03. > :12:06.played, in conjunction with Ireland and the UK, in having
:12:07. > :12:13.our peace process. So you talk about the benefits
:12:14. > :12:16.of the EU in furthering the Northern The leader of Sinn Fein,
:12:17. > :12:19.Gerry Adams, says first of all he fears that
:12:20. > :12:22.taking, this is a direct quote, taking Northern Ireland out
:12:23. > :12:25.of the EU could destroy the peace Second, he says, look,
:12:26. > :12:33.now is clearly the time, given the possibility
:12:34. > :12:35.that the island of Ireland may find a solution, particularly
:12:36. > :12:41.to this Customs problem, by some sort of
:12:42. > :12:45.integrationist approach. He says the time is coming
:12:46. > :12:48.where we need to ballot the people of the north on whether in fact
:12:49. > :12:51.the time has come to consider unification of the
:12:52. > :12:54.island of Ireland. I don't believe we should conflate
:12:55. > :12:59.the issue of the unification of Ireland with the withdrawal
:13:00. > :13:01.of the UK from the EU. But a clear majority of the people
:13:02. > :13:05.in Northern Ireland voted to stay Is that for you, in the Irish
:13:06. > :13:11.government, that has been committed to the long-term vision of uniting
:13:12. > :13:13.the island of Ireland, is it not a wonderful
:13:14. > :13:15.opportunity for you to say to the people
:13:16. > :13:18.of the north, think about it? Think about having a vote on joining
:13:19. > :13:21.us, because then you can stay in the EU, all of these problems
:13:22. > :13:29.disappear and we will be as one? I'm sure the people
:13:30. > :13:31.of Northern Ireland think about these issues all the time,
:13:32. > :13:34.but I'm at one with the Secretary of State Brokenshire
:13:35. > :13:36.and his colleagues in the British government, when we adhere strictly
:13:37. > :13:39.to the letter of the Good Friday It states that a border poll
:13:40. > :13:48.will take place at some stage in the future, when in the opinion
:13:49. > :13:51.of the Secretary of State for the time being of
:13:52. > :13:53.Northern Ireland that I believe we have a significant
:13:54. > :14:01.challenge, the greatest challenge of my generation,
:14:02. > :14:05.in dealing with the withdrawal of the UK from the EU
:14:06. > :14:08.and the consequences for the island of Ireland, especially
:14:09. > :14:09.Northern Ireland. So I don't believe that a debate now
:14:10. > :14:12.on the merits or otherwise of a united Ireland
:14:13. > :14:15.is timely or appropriate. Well, I'm just asking
:14:16. > :14:19.you a different direct question now. Leaving aside your belief
:14:20. > :14:21.that there is no time right now for a border poll, as you call it,
:14:22. > :14:25.a vote in Ireland or a vote to consider reuninification,
:14:26. > :14:27.do you believe, quite simply, that Brexit makes the long-term
:14:28. > :14:29.prospect of a divided Well, I think it has people thinking
:14:30. > :14:43.about it in perhaps a way they have But I'm concentrating
:14:44. > :14:52.now on the job at hand, which is withdrawing from the EU,
:14:53. > :15:03.and the adverse effects, as I don't see an upside
:15:04. > :15:05.for Ireland... I think the Unionists will listen
:15:06. > :15:08.to this carefully and feel once again Dublin is looking
:15:09. > :15:10.for an opportunity to talk about I acknowledge the primacy
:15:11. > :15:17.of the Good Friday Agreement and I acknowledge that now is not
:15:18. > :15:20.the time to talk about border polls I am saying the unique circumstances
:15:21. > :15:31.on Ireland need to be acknowledged. For example, there are
:15:32. > :15:33.1.8 million people. Under the Good Friday Agreement,
:15:34. > :15:36.it is accepted that each of those people is allowed to declare
:15:37. > :15:38.themselves as British, And those who declare themselves
:15:39. > :15:41.as Irish are entitled If you are entitled to an Irish
:15:42. > :15:55.passport, you are by definition And if you are an Irish citizen,
:15:56. > :16:00.in the post-Brexit UK, you are entitled
:16:01. > :16:03.to an EU citizenship. That will need to be resolved
:16:04. > :16:09.in the negotiations. Everyone living in the area outside
:16:10. > :16:15.of the EU, keeping in mind the fact that we are withdrawing from the EU,
:16:16. > :16:19.accepting that Ireland is part of the UK, and everyone
:16:20. > :16:25.is entitled to EU citizenship, that in itself warrants unique
:16:26. > :16:29.and special circumstances to take It is one of those special
:16:30. > :16:38.challenges of the negotiating I want to think about Ireland's
:16:39. > :16:42.position in the world, not through the prism of Brexit,
:16:43. > :16:45.but the way both the EU and your other key partner in trade
:16:46. > :16:48.and foreign affairs, the US, have changed
:16:49. > :16:52.in the recent past. Let's start with the US,
:16:53. > :16:55.your biggest trading partner by far. Donald Trump believes
:16:56. > :17:00.in protectionism, Donald Trump It is a fundamental challenge
:17:01. > :17:08.to Ireland's economic model, is it not, which has been built
:17:09. > :17:11.around using very low taxes, particularly corporate taxes,
:17:12. > :17:14.to attract business, especially from the US,
:17:15. > :17:21.to base itself here in Ireland. And Donald Trump does not
:17:22. > :17:24.want that to continue. Well, of course, as Foreign
:17:25. > :17:26.Minister, I don't meddle in other jurisdictions, be it
:17:27. > :17:28.Northern Ireland or the What we offer, in terms of a base
:17:29. > :17:36.for American companies here in Europe, is the most dynamic,
:17:37. > :17:38.enthusiastic, and youngest Well, you know what you offer them,
:17:39. > :17:47.we all know what you offer them, Donald Trump is now saying he wants
:17:48. > :17:52.to cut corporate taxes Your crucial competitive edge
:17:53. > :17:59.which has driven the Irish economic recovery since the meltdown crash
:18:00. > :18:02.of 2008 and is being taken Our competitive edge on our EU
:18:03. > :18:11.colleagues and others is not exclusively ore merely
:18:12. > :18:13.in the area of taxation. It is the adaptability
:18:14. > :18:16.of our workforce and the skills Dublin is repeatedly voted
:18:17. > :18:18.among the top European... You may think that,
:18:19. > :18:22.Minister, but look at... The record could be looked
:18:23. > :18:30.at in different ways. Look at the legal case in Europe
:18:31. > :18:33.about Apple and the way in which Ireland taxed Apple,
:18:34. > :18:35.one of the most successful You know, you let Apple
:18:36. > :18:43.put their profits in this country, and you taxed them at a rate
:18:44. > :18:46.that was less than 1%, And the EU said this
:18:47. > :18:52.is not acceptable. The wind has changed and you're not
:18:53. > :18:56.going to get away with it any more. Ireland offers no favourable tax
:18:57. > :18:58.deals to any corporations, What you speak of is an analysis
:18:59. > :19:04.by the European Commission. We respect the European Commision,
:19:05. > :19:06.but we fundamentally They asked you to tax Apple for 13
:19:07. > :19:16.billion euros' worth of tax which they said you had
:19:17. > :19:18.deliberately failed to extract It was to simply give them
:19:19. > :19:32.the tax break to keep them It was analysis from
:19:33. > :19:36.the European Commission. We have appealed to the European
:19:37. > :19:40.Court in order to get a legal We are satisfied and confident
:19:41. > :19:43.that the Irish position will be We offer no sweetheart
:19:44. > :19:48.deals to any company. How can you say that to me
:19:49. > :19:51.when you know the real tax rate you imposed on Apple was an absurd
:19:52. > :20:08.0.05%, or something. We set our own corporation tax rates
:20:09. > :20:12.like any other EU country and like Donald Trump does.
:20:13. > :20:15.Do you like the fact that Ireland is now seen as a tax haven
:20:16. > :20:17.across Europe which offers sweetheart deals and unfair breaks
:20:18. > :20:21.Ireland always cooperates with international actors
:20:22. > :20:25.in the event of difficulties, challenges and adverse opinions.
:20:26. > :20:28.But for many years we have been in full cooperation with,
:20:29. > :20:31.And we have changed some of our revenue practices.
:20:32. > :20:34.The ones you mentioned are from the 1990s, over
:20:35. > :20:40.So, you acknowledge the wind has changed?
:20:41. > :20:44.We acknowledge we need to engage with...
:20:45. > :20:47.I'm sure, as Foreign Minister of Ireland, I'm sure you are aware
:20:48. > :20:49.that the new President-Elect of France, Emmanuel Macron,
:20:50. > :20:52.has said he sees the EU's direction of travel as towards a unified
:20:53. > :21:02.Treasury, unified tax and fiscal policies across the European Union.
:21:03. > :21:05.That's a very clear message to a country like Ireland that
:21:06. > :21:08.you will not get away with this anymore, of being the tax
:21:09. > :21:21.That is exactly what President Sarkozy said a number of years ago.
:21:22. > :21:23.We very much welcome the presidency of Emmanuel Macron.
:21:24. > :21:27.We very much look forward to working with him.
:21:28. > :21:30.And if there are issues around moving forward as a European family,
:21:31. > :21:34.of course, Ireland will fully engage in that process.
:21:35. > :21:38.It will drag its heels and say "absolutely no way."
:21:39. > :21:41.To come back to the point that you managed to recover
:21:42. > :21:45.from your terrible economic meltdown by using an extraordinarily quote
:21:46. > :21:48.unquote "tax regime," the way things are looking for Europe today
:21:49. > :21:51.and the direction of travel, that will not be tenable
:21:52. > :21:58.Ireland will have to find a new way of becoming a successful economic
:21:59. > :22:04.Ireland, being a small and open economy, is subject to international
:22:05. > :22:17.trade winds and the winds of adverse economic policies from time to time.
:22:18. > :22:19.Irish people, more than perhaps anyone on the planet,
:22:20. > :22:21.have shown themselves to be incredibly resilient
:22:22. > :22:25.We will do the same as far as Brexit is concerned.
:22:26. > :22:27.You must be aware of the winds of populism blowing
:22:28. > :22:32.In fact, your Prime Minister went on St Patrick's Day
:22:33. > :22:35.to the United States and lectured Donald Trump about the dangers
:22:36. > :22:37.of what he is doing in the United States,
:22:38. > :22:43.especially with travel bans and building walls.
:22:44. > :22:45.But it is not just there, it is in Europe too.
:22:46. > :22:48.Ireland is a small country with an open liberal approach
:22:49. > :22:56.It will have a real problem, won't it, as this trend
:22:57. > :22:59.towards protectionism, building walls, keeping
:23:00. > :23:10.In fact, challenge is the spice of politics.
:23:11. > :23:13.No one in any jurisdiction escapes being in the position to take
:23:14. > :23:20.Look at recent elections across Europe, the Austrian
:23:21. > :23:23.election, the Netherlands and their election.
:23:24. > :23:26.There has been a push back against populism.
:23:27. > :23:30.In Ireland we are operating in the most minority
:23:31. > :23:36.My message to people is there are complex issues
:23:37. > :23:39.and difficult challenges out there in terms of international
:23:40. > :23:40.trade and international relations, and international security,
:23:41. > :23:42.an issue which we have not an opportunity to
:23:43. > :23:48.But ultimately, I believe there are no simple answers,
:23:49. > :23:51.simple solutions, to very complex questions, and I believe the centre
:23:52. > :23:53.must hold in Europe, and the centre must hold in Ireland.
:23:54. > :24:01.I don't have immediate answers to all the complex challenges.
:24:02. > :24:04.But I don't believe that the answer lies in populism.
:24:05. > :24:09.And I don't believe in 2017 that attempting to regress
:24:10. > :24:14.the globalisation of the last number of years is going to work.
:24:15. > :24:17.Charles Flanagan, we must end it there, but thank