0:00:00 > 0:00:00A navy spokesman says sounds picked up by two search vessels earlier
0:00:00 > 0:00:02did not come from the submarine.
0:00:02 > 0:00:08They had been detected on the route it would have taken.
0:00:08 > 0:00:15You are up-to-date. There is more to come on BBC News. You are watching
0:00:15 > 0:00:25BBC News. Now it is time for HARDtalk.
0:00:25 > 0:00:31Welcome to HARDtalk. I am Stephen Sackur. After 37 years in power, it
0:00:31 > 0:00:36is perhaps not surprising that Robert Mugabe cannot accept
0:00:36 > 0:00:40Zimbabwe's new reality. But no amount of playing for time will save
0:00:40 > 0:00:45his presidency now. The Robert Mugabe era is over. The question is
0:00:45 > 0:00:52what comes next. Will it be a continuation of the oppressive rule
0:00:52 > 0:00:57of ZANU PF? Or will the politics of the country open up in new and
0:00:57 > 0:01:01unpredictable ways? My guest is Ibbo Mandaza, a former government
0:01:01 > 0:01:07official turned academic analyst. Will Zimbabwe's current drama and
0:01:07 > 0:01:42well? -- end well? Ibbo Mandaza, welcome to HARDtalk.Thank you.I
0:01:42 > 0:01:47just refer to this compelling drama playing out in Harare. You have
0:01:47 > 0:01:51obviously just come from Harare in the last few hours to talk to me.
0:01:51 > 0:01:55Can there are only be one ending, that Robert Mugabe will be gone
0:01:55 > 0:02:01within days?I don't know about days, but certainly it is the end
0:02:01 > 0:02:06for him. Except now we have a serious stand-off between him and
0:02:06 > 0:02:13his party.Is it a serious stand-off?I think it is. It is a
0:02:13 > 0:02:18constitutional crisis. It appears to me that Robert Mugabe seems to have
0:02:18 > 0:02:22the upper hand on the once additional and legal side. It is
0:02:22 > 0:02:32quite obvious he has some of the best legal minds around him.
0:02:32 > 0:02:40Clearly, his speech last night had very cogent arguments, not to
0:02:40 > 0:02:48mention the fact that from the outset, the military insisted that
0:02:48 > 0:02:53it was not a coup, although it is a coup in my view. They also insists
0:02:53 > 0:02:58he is the head of state and the commander-in-chief.Yes. It is very
0:02:58 > 0:03:02hard to figure out precisely the relationship between the senior
0:03:02 > 0:03:06military command and Robert Mugabe. There they all were in that bizarre
0:03:06 > 0:03:11shot of the military chief sitting next to Robert Lagarde they as he
0:03:11 > 0:03:14may be address to the nation. Sceptics think that perhaps this is
0:03:14 > 0:03:20all being orchestrated and that army command is quite happy for Robert
0:03:20 > 0:03:26Mugabe to go through the impeachment process, because it legitimises the
0:03:26 > 0:03:29removal, it puts a veil of constitutionality of the whole
0:03:29 > 0:03:36thing. Do you think that is true?I think so. But also, it appears to me
0:03:36 > 0:03:47events leading to the coup were sparked by fear by the generals that
0:03:47 > 0:03:51they would be charged with treason. And so it appears to me the first
0:03:51 > 0:03:58act was to pre-empt the heads of state doing what he intended to do.
0:03:58 > 0:04:03It appears to me they did not have a clear plan as to the outcome of the
0:04:03 > 0:04:08intervention. They thought it would be a few days and Robert Mugabe
0:04:08 > 0:04:14would resign. He surprised them clearly. They don't no what to do
0:04:14 > 0:04:18now.Let's talk about the potential for destabilisation, for undress,
0:04:18 > 0:04:26for violence. -- unrest. Some people are saying this is a fragile moment
0:04:26 > 0:04:30for Zimbabwe. It is hard to see where the violence would come from,
0:04:30 > 0:04:34because the only person it seems you with really determined to defend
0:04:34 > 0:04:39Robert Mugabe's rights and interests is Robert Mugabe himself. He does
0:04:39 > 0:04:43not seem to have any street presence supporting his claim to stay in the
0:04:43 > 0:04:51job.There are various constraining factors for the military, but you
0:04:51 > 0:04:59are right there is a danger we could have rogue elements within the
0:04:59 > 0:05:02military, within the whole veteran association, who would want to push,
0:05:02 > 0:05:06as appears to be the case, Robert Mugabe to resign, and if need be,
0:05:06 > 0:05:19even attack is person, break into his "Blue Roof" so called, it could
0:05:19 > 0:05:32escalate.Let me talk about what Chris is saying, the Head of the
0:05:32 > 0:05:35Veterans' Association. This is a few hours ago. We will organise a
0:05:35 > 0:05:41sitting and we will not leave Harare until Robert Mugabe is gone. Would
0:05:41 > 0:05:53you worry if there is a sit-in around the so-called Blue Roof, his
0:05:53 > 0:05:57residence?As far as the events on Saturday, the army did not allow the
0:05:57 > 0:06:03crowd near the area, let alone the Blue Roof. It is clear the military
0:06:03 > 0:06:07are in charge of the whole process so far, including the rally itself,
0:06:07 > 0:06:13including directing and organising it. The military will want to play
0:06:13 > 0:06:19it constitutionally, legally, safe, as far as possible, except if the
0:06:19 > 0:06:27stand-off is extended, as is appearing to be the case, then they
0:06:27 > 0:06:33may resort to other means. They want him to resign and he is refusing.
0:06:33 > 0:06:37You have more experience inside the government as one of the top civil
0:06:37 > 0:06:44servant for you went into academia and political commentary. I just
0:06:44 > 0:06:48wonder, when we are talking about the Constitution and the impeachment
0:06:48 > 0:06:54process, just how important and how durable and resilient is the
0:06:54 > 0:06:58Zimbabwean constitution, because the issue is that he has ridden
0:06:58 > 0:07:05roughshod over it for many years. Is a part of the political process to
0:07:05 > 0:07:09stick to the Constitution?Yes, except where it is done so
0:07:09 > 0:07:15expediently and conveniently. In general, there is a very high
0:07:15 > 0:07:22disdainful constitutionalism, even in the party itself. You can see it
0:07:22 > 0:07:30is very messy and tidy a process. Right now, the committee met
0:07:30 > 0:07:36yesterday and voted to get Robert Mugabe and everyone else out. And
0:07:36 > 0:07:41his speech last night wanted to render that all illegal, saying he
0:07:41 > 0:07:50is ill in power. -- still. You have a situation where the interpretation
0:07:50 > 0:07:58of the Constitution is left to expedient subscription thereof.I
0:07:58 > 0:08:02ask you at the beginning of there was any doubt about the outcome and
0:08:02 > 0:08:06I was thinking about Robert Mugabe's removal and you indicated it could
0:08:06 > 0:08:10take longer than you think. But Robert Mugabe is ultimately going to
0:08:10 > 0:08:15have to go. Is there any doubt in your mind that the successor will be
0:08:15 > 0:08:23the vice president briefly deposed but now back, Emmerson? Is that
0:08:23 > 0:08:29going to be the outcome he will succeed?If the coup succeeds, yes,
0:08:29 > 0:08:39he will be in. If the coup and says they intend it to end with Robert
0:08:39 > 0:08:45Mugabe leaving, it will have been successful. If, as appears to be
0:08:45 > 0:08:52happening, there is a resort to constitutional arguments and, more
0:08:52 > 0:08:57importantly, the intervention of South Africans, it appears that they
0:08:57 > 0:09:12may find a solution, such as the Governor of national unity, our
0:09:12 > 0:09:15group the Platform for Consensus have been saying since last year
0:09:15 > 0:09:21when we saw this happening, a national transitional authority, a
0:09:21 > 0:09:25non-partisan authority of Zimbabweans who would take charge of
0:09:25 > 0:09:28the state for two years during which time they would be political reform.
0:09:28 > 0:09:34But of course, that is a hard sell from the very beginning because you
0:09:34 > 0:09:40have contending factors, both within ZANU PF itself in the larger polity.
0:09:40 > 0:09:47Your message is that Emmerson taking over would be bad for Zimbabwe?Yes.
0:09:47 > 0:09:54That one faction in a factional fight would be seen to be taking
0:09:54 > 0:10:01over will be seen as a coup. As far as I am concerned, the solution is
0:10:01 > 0:10:06to transcend the ZANU PF faction, to find someone within ZANU PF itself
0:10:06 > 0:10:11who was above the factions, and it is difficult to find such a person,
0:10:11 > 0:10:16or a neutral factor altogether, leading a transitional authority and
0:10:16 > 0:10:23transitional government.But Ibbo Mandaza, are you not part of the
0:10:23 > 0:10:30issue? You were once a loyalist of the Maduru faction. You have had a
0:10:30 > 0:10:35stake in this yourself. That is why he dislikes you, he sees you as
0:10:35 > 0:10:42someone who has always favoured his opponent.Well, I had a family
0:10:42 > 0:10:46relationship with the Madurus, both in the late husband and herself.
0:10:46 > 0:10:59And, yes, I felt as a Zimbabwean citizen that we were shortchanged in
0:10:59 > 0:11:032014 when these purges began. She was elected in 2004. She was a vice
0:11:03 > 0:11:10president in every sense of the word. And in 2014, the vice
0:11:10 > 0:11:18president and others were rejected. But my point is not so much about
0:11:18 > 0:11:22Joyce and what happened to her, we interviewed her on this programme
0:11:22 > 0:11:27and frankly she does not amount to much support these days. It is your
0:11:27 > 0:11:30message about factionalism. It is interesting to see how anybody in
0:11:30 > 0:11:36Zimbabwe today could have any hope that factionalism won't continue. It
0:11:36 > 0:11:48will be a dominant force. Emmerson and the head of the military are
0:11:48 > 0:11:51clearly people who want to keep our closely in the hands of those, you
0:11:51 > 0:11:56know, one could perhaps say old cronies of Robert Mugabe are going
0:11:56 > 0:12:00all the way back in ZANU PF. It is hard to see how that will not
0:12:00 > 0:12:06happen.Is you're looking for a solution mediate that difference,
0:12:06 > 0:12:16that is where some of us come in as citizens. -- if. In retrospect, in
0:12:16 > 0:12:21hindsight, it is clear, as you are correct, in your characterisation,
0:12:21 > 0:12:35that the military has always been central right from the ceasefire in
0:12:35 > 0:12:391980 with Maduru and on and on. It is true the military has been
0:12:39 > 0:12:44central. Some of us as analysts have been confused and lost the plot
0:12:44 > 0:12:48thinking he took control of the military. Clearly he did not. This
0:12:48 > 0:12:56is becoming self-evident.Let me quote you. It is interesting what
0:12:56 > 0:13:00you are saying. The top branch of the military have been extremely
0:13:00 > 0:13:05influential. Let's not forget that Emmerson going way back was Minister
0:13:05 > 0:13:08of State security and ran the intelligence operations as part of
0:13:08 > 0:13:15his ministerial duties. He campaigned. He has a long record.
0:13:15 > 0:13:22And this is what one Western diplomat said, if he takes over,
0:13:22 > 0:13:27this is far from being a brave new dawn for Zimbabwe it. He is cut from
0:13:27 > 0:13:37the same cloth as Mugabe. Would you agree with that?Clearly, yes. His
0:13:37 > 0:13:42base at the moment is the military. He is the most powerful person at
0:13:42 > 0:13:46the moment. And really, it appears to be that the military wanted a
0:13:46 > 0:13:56civilian face. And he has been chosen. It is difficult to make a
0:13:56 > 0:14:05distinction between the Mugabe regime and the era he had and
0:14:05 > 0:14:08Emmerson and the military. They are one and the same. This is a
0:14:08 > 0:14:13factional fight within ZANU PF itself. Which party is completed
0:14:13 > 0:14:17with the state, really.Going back to instability, I want to quote to
0:14:17 > 0:14:32you one other person who has been out on the streets, Linda, she is an
0:14:32 > 0:14:35activist, founder of the Zimbabwean Women In Politics, she said she has
0:14:35 > 0:14:39waited all her life for Mugabe to stand down, but now she is worried
0:14:39 > 0:14:42about what happens next. The military is stepping in to resolve
0:14:42 > 0:14:46the factional fight and it has nothing to do with reforming the
0:14:46 > 0:14:52country. You seem to be echoing that very bleak sentiment.
0:14:52 > 0:14:57S
0:14:57 > 0:15:01with those sentiments. I agree entirely. But we have to be
0:15:01 > 0:15:04realistic, we have to be political and take into account the reality
0:15:04 > 0:15:09and see how we can work out of it to a more positive scenario.To be
0:15:09 > 0:15:14specific, what are you going to do? Well, it is not me. What I will do,
0:15:14 > 0:15:20it is a question of, asked trying to -- asked trying to leverage on the
0:15:20 > 0:15:27process, on the intervention, and the need to mediate...You keep
0:15:27 > 0:15:31talking about SADAC, we know the South African government has taken a
0:15:31 > 0:15:36mild position, asking everybody to please focus on following the
0:15:36 > 0:15:39Zimbabwean con situation. I can quote you the president of Zambia,
0:15:39 > 0:15:45Edgar Lungu, who has actually said that in his view, the military
0:15:45 > 0:15:48takeover reflects intervention and meddling by western countries. He
0:15:48 > 0:15:52says Westerners are trying to spearhead regime change, not just in
0:15:52 > 0:15:56Zimbabwe, but in Zambia, South Africa and Malawi as well, and we
0:15:56 > 0:16:02won't let it happen. So I'm not sure that African neighbours are of a
0:16:02 > 0:16:06mind to push the reform agenda. It doesn't sound as though they are.
0:16:06 > 0:16:09Some of them sound like they are quite tempted to defend Mugabe.
0:16:09 > 0:16:16Precisely. I think basically, a successful cooing Zimbabwe would
0:16:16 > 0:16:22send the wrong message across the region. -- coup in. The differences
0:16:22 > 0:16:26between the regimes in the region are those of degree, rather than
0:16:26 > 0:16:31kind. You are talking about SADC, SADC is normally lame but I think
0:16:31 > 0:16:37SADC has never been faced except for Lzutu with a similar situation to
0:16:37 > 0:16:41this. It will be interesting to see what SADC does tomorrow. I agree
0:16:41 > 0:16:45this will be based on self-interest in parts of SADC and the South
0:16:45 > 0:16:49African state, rather than any concentration such as that which
0:16:49 > 0:16:55Linda was referring to. What about the international community more
0:16:55 > 0:17:01widely? I am intrigued by the notion which I have read in some quarters
0:17:01 > 0:17:04which says that actually, the key player in this is not any western
0:17:04 > 0:17:08country, the United States anybody else. It is China. There is talk of
0:17:08 > 0:17:13a key meeting involving Mr Mnangagwa and Mr Chiwenga, the head of the
0:17:13 > 0:17:17military, actually in Beijing. And that the Chinese signed off on the
0:17:17 > 0:17:21move against Mugabe because China of course has vast economic interest in
0:17:21 > 0:17:28Zimbabwe. Is China a big player, do you think?Yes, but I also know
0:17:28 > 0:17:32China as one who tries not to interfere in internal politics,
0:17:32 > 0:17:37except in its own neighbourhood. So I think that is mere speculation.
0:17:37 > 0:17:42There is no evidence to that effect. Nor is there evidence that western
0:17:42 > 0:17:45countries have been directly involved. There has always been
0:17:45 > 0:17:52speculation, of course, unconfirmed, that Emmerson Mnangagwa and in this
0:17:52 > 0:17:56case, this military coup, would have the support of the British or the
0:17:56 > 0:18:02dish intelligence services. Again, that is speculation. So what's next,
0:18:02 > 0:18:06in your view? I imagine when we stop talking you will be going very soon
0:18:06 > 0:18:13back home to Harare, and you are somebody who constantly speaks out
0:18:13 > 0:18:16for fundamental transformation in Zimbabwe, getting away from what you
0:18:16 > 0:18:20call the factionalism, opening up of six, bringing in a new generation,
0:18:20 > 0:18:24making the country more genuinely free and democratic. -- opening up
0:18:24 > 0:18:29politics. How on earth, given the nature of our conversation, do you
0:18:29 > 0:18:34believe you can play a role in that happening?Well, I am grateful that
0:18:34 > 0:18:39you give us the opportunity of this important interview with a very
0:18:39 > 0:18:42influential programme like HARDtalk...Well, that is very
0:18:42 > 0:18:46flattering, but nonetheless, it is just words. Long after you leave the
0:18:46 > 0:18:49studio you have to go home and figure out how to change the
0:18:49 > 0:18:53situation on the ground.Yes, I cannot do it alone. We're working
0:18:53 > 0:18:59many other people. I made reference to the PCC, the Platform for
0:18:59 > 0:19:02Concerned Citizens. We have submitted a public document to be
0:19:02 > 0:19:08SADC Secretariat and to be Troika. We did that through the South
0:19:08 > 0:19:15African government this afternoon. So there are many efforts at home.
0:19:15 > 0:19:18There is representation by the churches. There is a prominent
0:19:18 > 0:19:24clergyman who has been involved in the negotiations between Mugabe's
0:19:24 > 0:19:30residence and the military had offers. So there is a lot of stuff
0:19:30 > 0:19:33happening on the ground but we're hoping that the SADC intervention,
0:19:33 > 0:19:36but also the international community, I know that the western
0:19:36 > 0:19:40met yesterday to discuss the Zimbabwe situation, and I also know
0:19:40 > 0:19:46that they are recommending a government of national humidity. --
0:19:46 > 0:19:51western ambassadors met yesterday. Which involves everybody, the other
0:19:51 > 0:19:55political parties as well. I think they were all shocked yesterday with
0:19:55 > 0:19:59the statements which suggested that this was an internal issue of
0:19:59 > 0:20:09ZANU-PF. I think the solution is to have them transcend the ZANU-PF
0:20:09 > 0:20:12factionalism and have a national dialogue and national process which
0:20:12 > 0:20:15includes everybody, at least as a transitional authority, towards
0:20:15 > 0:20:23elections one or two years hence. That is interesting. Yet a signal
0:20:23 > 0:20:26failure of you to mention Mr Changi Wright and the Movement for
0:20:26 > 0:20:30Democratic Change, what has long been the leading opposition party,
0:20:30 > 0:20:34suggests to me that you do not really feel they could be serious
0:20:34 > 0:20:40agents of change. -- Mr Tsvangirai. Maybe I am misleading you. Do you
0:20:40 > 0:20:44think Mr Tsvangirai has an important role to play?On the contrary, I
0:20:44 > 0:20:48think all parties must be involved, including Morgan Tsvangirai. You
0:20:48 > 0:20:51cannot ignore Morgan Tsvangirai in any process in Zimbabwe, not least
0:20:51 > 0:20:56because he was shortchanged in 2008. It is common knowledge now that
0:20:56 > 0:20:59Morgan Tsvangirai won the election in 2008. And it was this time Mr
0:20:59 > 0:21:04Mnangagwa and General Chiwenga who took over, and one would say it was
0:21:04 > 0:21:10a coup actually, in 2008, in the form of the manipulation of the
0:21:10 > 0:21:19results, the subsequent run-off, and how Mr Mugabe stayed in power. So
0:21:19 > 0:21:22Morgan Tsvangirai can not be ignored, not at all, either as a
0:21:22 > 0:21:28person or in terms of his party.We have talked really politics in this
0:21:28 > 0:21:32interview. Let's end by thinking about something else, just as. Do
0:21:32 > 0:21:37you think there is any possibility that Robert Mugabe and people very
0:21:37 > 0:21:42close to him might be brought to face justice for some of the things
0:21:42 > 0:21:49that happens under his command? His rule of Zimbabwe? I am thinking in
0:21:49 > 0:21:55particular of the mass killings that we know happens in the early 1980s.
0:21:55 > 0:22:02Is justice part of this, or not? Well, one would hope for some kind
0:22:02 > 0:22:08of truth and reconciliation such as we have in South Africa. But if it
0:22:08 > 0:22:11were to be revenge, that would escalate things out of hand. The
0:22:11 > 0:22:18human rights factor must be taken into account. Yes, Mugabe, and those
0:22:18 > 0:22:24persons, Mnangagwa and Chiwenga have much to answer for, for the violence
0:22:24 > 0:22:28over the last 30 years, and to periods which were punctuated by
0:22:28 > 0:22:34violence, not only them, but there massacre of the earlier era which
0:22:34 > 0:22:40remained save them a shot at history. But also subsequent
0:22:40 > 0:22:44killings at election time. In 2008 some 200 people perished. Yes, there
0:22:44 > 0:22:51will need to be a taking account of all that, and one might even suggest
0:22:51 > 0:22:56we need to go back to be beginning of the struggle, where there were
0:22:56 > 0:23:01many killings among ourselves, as Zimbabweans. I think a truth and
0:23:01 > 0:23:04reconciliation commission is something that might help to close
0:23:04 > 0:23:09the chapter on this sordid history of hours.A final thought, before we
0:23:09 > 0:23:15end. I was very struck by the joyous scenes, frankly, which I saw from
0:23:15 > 0:23:19Harare and the mass demonstrations, the people out on the streets on
0:23:19 > 0:23:22Saturday at the weekend in your capital city. Are you feeling full
0:23:22 > 0:23:28of optimism, positivity, and maybe even some joy at the thought of
0:23:28 > 0:23:33Robert Mugabe's" right now? Or are you actually feeling somewhat
0:23:33 > 0:23:37alarmed and curvaceous about the future of your country? -- alarmed
0:23:37 > 0:23:48and trepidation as -- trepidatious. They did so through the four days.
0:23:48 > 0:23:52Prior to that the military were acting on their own. There was not
0:23:52 > 0:24:01the conventional mass reception of the coup which you have seen in
0:24:01 > 0:24:05other parts of Africa. I think people are beginning to sober up and
0:24:05 > 0:24:09realise there is something at the heart of this which has to do with
0:24:09 > 0:24:13the manner in which the system has been run for the last two decades at
0:24:13 > 0:24:17least.Ibbo Mandaza, it is a sobering thought to end on. Thank
0:24:17 > 0:24:21you for joining me on HARDtalk from Johannesburg.Thank you very much,
0:24:21 > 0:24:24Stephen.