03/11/2015

:00:00. > :00:00.going live to the House of Lords. Remember you can watch recorded

:00:00. > :00:08.coverage of all of today's business in the Lords after the daily

:00:09. > :00:13.politics late at night. Two final thoughts, is it not worth

:00:14. > :00:19.considering some way of bringing, levying a charge on Arctic tourism,

:00:20. > :00:22.solar contribution is made to the excessive costs of providing

:00:23. > :00:31.adequate search and rescue facilities? People who go on to

:00:32. > :00:34.arrest tours to the Arctic are not normally among the lowest deciles of

:00:35. > :00:41.incoming population. Whilst it is helpful of the Government to offer

:00:42. > :00:48.the possible periodic updates to the liaison committee of this House I do

:00:49. > :00:51.ask the question, what can the liaison committee do when it gets

:00:52. > :00:55.the updates question that that is of course one small part of the case

:00:56. > :01:01.for establishing an international committee, which I trust will return

:01:02. > :01:07.rather shortly on which I hope there will be a positive decision.

:01:08. > :01:14.I often wonder why many people showed little concern in the face of

:01:15. > :01:21.the impending catastrophe of global warning. A fundamental dichotomy in

:01:22. > :01:24.human perceptions which falter. In 1757 there was an influential work

:01:25. > :01:32.published of social philosophy and satire under the title, Optimism. It

:01:33. > :01:36.is said to be promoted, prompted by a disastrous earthquake in Lisbon,

:01:37. > :01:42.estimated to have killed 60,000 people in that city alone. Erase a

:01:43. > :01:48.question of how a belief in a deity could be maintained in the face of

:01:49. > :01:54.such disasters or acts of God. There are two main protagonists in the

:01:55. > :02:01.terrible story. The first is the Conde to run the world with various

:02:02. > :02:04.companions and is confronted by a series of disasters. Some of the

:02:05. > :02:09.disasters are acts of God and others are attributed to human behaviour

:02:10. > :02:13.for second protagonist is a doctor, who is unaffected by the tragedies.

:02:14. > :02:18.He refuses to allow them to distract him from his everyday concerns and

:02:19. > :02:23.he asserts without all is for the best and the best of all possible

:02:24. > :02:29.worlds. Conde represents an Academy people that could be called the

:02:30. > :02:32.absurdist, they seek disasters everywhere that are compounded by

:02:33. > :02:36.human folly and ignorance. The doctor, and the other hand, and

:02:37. > :02:41.verify the category of people who one might describe as the

:02:42. > :02:48.normalises. We can recognise both classes of people in any assembled

:02:49. > :02:53.company. However, unless people first-hand, they may go from one

:02:54. > :02:59.category to another. Most of us embody both tendencies in very deg.

:03:00. > :03:13.The absence of dramatic first-hand experience of the influence of --

:03:14. > :03:25.effect of global warning has led to less concerned. Harry Kane Patricia,

:03:26. > :03:33.the devastation of the island by the typhoon -- Hurricane Patricia. It is

:03:34. > :03:36.preferred to consider only the average impact of these events. We

:03:37. > :03:40.have every reason to feel that when we feel the full force of global

:03:41. > :03:44.warming it will be too late to avert catastrophe. The dichotomy of

:03:45. > :03:48.perceptions is clearly evident on the report of the Select Committee

:03:49. > :03:53.on the Arctic, which is a well crafted document of which the clerk

:03:54. > :03:59.of the committee and the policy analyst Matty Smith must take much

:04:00. > :04:07.of the credit. On the one hand, the report contains the -- conveys an

:04:08. > :04:10.impending catastrophe but it also documents the political, social and

:04:11. > :04:13.economic responses to the ongoing changes in the Arctic environment.

:04:14. > :04:18.The report declares in its introduction that the committee did

:04:19. > :04:19.not seek to examine of the global causes, processes and consequences

:04:20. > :04:25.of global change -- climate change. of global change -- climate change.

:04:26. > :04:28.Nevertheless the first chapter clearly displays the startling

:04:29. > :04:32.evidence of climate change that can be seen in the Arctic and that will

:04:33. > :04:36.have inevitable global consequences. In the period from 1900 to the

:04:37. > :04:41.credit the Arctic temperature surfaces of the land have risen by

:04:42. > :04:46.as much as four degrees centigrade, or by no less than three degrees

:04:47. > :04:49.centigrade if one takes the most favourable base here. The rise in

:04:50. > :04:53.temperature has been twice the rate of the global average and can be

:04:54. > :04:59.regarded as a harbinger of a global temperature increase of the same or

:05:00. > :05:03.of a greater magnitude. The current scientific consensus is that if they

:05:04. > :05:06.continue, the present trends will result in an utterly destructive

:05:07. > :05:14.increase in temperature of five Celsius. The commitments to limit

:05:15. > :05:17.this which are likely to be confirmed by the forthcoming Paris

:05:18. > :05:24.conference, if they were realised, then a rise in temperature may be

:05:25. > :05:31.limited to 2.7 degrees by 20 100. -- 2100. The 2 degrees rise, we have

:05:32. > :05:37.been told repeatedly, that is the maximum we can allow if we are not

:05:38. > :05:42.experienced severe destruction to our way of life. One very visible

:05:43. > :05:45.effect of the warming of the Arctic is the reduction in the ice cover.

:05:46. > :05:51.The report contains a compelling diagram which is the product of

:05:52. > :05:55.satellite monitoring full stop since 1980 the extent of ice coverage in

:05:56. > :05:58.the region has almost halved -- monitoring. Since. The picture

:05:59. > :06:03.becomes dramatically worse when one takes account of the thickness of

:06:04. > :06:10.the ice. Thin ice is quickly melted in the Arctic summer. It has

:06:11. > :06:13.decreased by 75% in the last 30 years. Many predict the eyes will be

:06:14. > :06:25.gone completely by the middle of the century. -- ice. The prospect of our

:06:26. > :06:29.ice free Arctic Ocean would greatly shorten the distances of sea voyages

:06:30. > :06:34.that presently passed the Suez canals and Panama Canal -- Suez

:06:35. > :06:40.Canal and Panama Canal. We must also envisage a dramatic rise in the sea

:06:41. > :06:44.level. Of course the melting of the ice cannot alone raise the sea level

:06:45. > :06:50.but there is melting of land-based ice. The loss of ice from Greenland

:06:51. > :06:54.has increased by a factor of five in the last five years. It described

:06:55. > :06:58.the causing a rise of two millimetres per annum, which seems

:06:59. > :07:02.small enough, however as we have heard it all of Greenland's I swear

:07:03. > :07:07.to melt there would be more than a 7 metre rise in the sea level. -- ice

:07:08. > :07:12.were to melt. The rise in ten major and a reduction of ice are complete

:07:13. > :07:17.by vicious processes of positive feedback. It reduces the libido or

:07:18. > :07:22.fertility of the Arctic region which leads to a greater absorption of

:07:23. > :07:26.heat. The melting of the Arctic tundra is giving rise to emissions

:07:27. > :07:32.of methane, which is a potent greenhouse gas. Volume four volume

:07:33. > :07:38.it has 20 times the warming effect of dioxide. The melting of the

:07:39. > :07:46.Arctic has been witnessed by members of the Committee who travelled to

:07:47. > :07:50.Svalbard, the Highlands which like 20 to 50 degrees from the North

:07:51. > :07:56.Pole. This is the world pot-mac northernmost error of habitation.

:07:57. > :08:11.The largest settlement -- world's northernmost area. The port in the

:08:12. > :08:31.northernmost settlement -- largest settlement is in Spitsbergen. The

:08:32. > :08:34.coal-mining industry which has been there since the beginning of the

:08:35. > :08:37.20th century is now in long-term decline but a booming tourist

:08:38. > :08:42.industry is now taking its place. The island is envisaged as a major

:08:43. > :08:46.logistical hub for the development of commercial and maritime

:08:47. > :08:49.activities in the polar regions. It is difficult to witness such normal

:08:50. > :08:56.activities and at the same time to bear in mind the notion of impending

:08:57. > :09:02.catastrophe. Svalbard provides a singular example of the difficulty

:09:03. > :09:04.of reconciling the different perceptions of normality and

:09:05. > :09:07.catastrophe and fully understanding the dangers we face. There is

:09:08. > :09:14.however one factor present at Svalbard that should remind us of

:09:15. > :09:17.the dangers. This is the International University centre

:09:18. > :09:21.devoted to Arctic studies. A stream of information and analysis emanates

:09:22. > :09:25.from the centre which can leave us in no doubt as to the prospect of

:09:26. > :09:31.the Arctic. Svalbard and has a numerous and growing scientific

:09:32. > :09:35.community of which the British have been growing participants. One of

:09:36. > :09:38.the main recommendations of the Committee is that our scientific

:09:39. > :09:42.presence in the Arctic should be bolstered in order to maintain the

:09:43. > :09:45.importance of our participation. This and other recommendations of

:09:46. > :09:49.import were met with a favourable but lukewarm reception in the

:09:50. > :09:56.Government response. Given the stringent limits the Government is

:09:57. > :09:59.imposing on the nation's limited financial budget I am fearful the

:10:00. > :10:06.recommendation will not be heeded. I would urge it should be the post

:10:07. > :10:09.priority. If the processes we have witnessed in the Arctic continue the

:10:10. > :10:11.is a strong likelihood we will be tipped into a runaway process of

:10:12. > :10:16.global warming that will wipe many of us off the face of the Earth.

:10:17. > :10:20.This is a means by which anthropogenic global warming might

:10:21. > :10:27.be eventually overcome. It seems to me that an out -- and colony has a

:10:28. > :10:32.better instinct of survival than does humankind. I have witnessed it

:10:33. > :10:38.first hand the impact on the Arctic the rapid process of warming -- ant

:10:39. > :10:43.colony. I am alarmed by what I have seen and wish to voice this Lauren.

:10:44. > :10:47.By maintaining and increasing our engagement in Arctic matters to an

:10:48. > :10:50.extent that may far exceed what the present Government regards as

:10:51. > :10:54.important, I think we can raise our awareness of the hazards and enhance

:10:55. > :11:04.our ability to react to them in a timely and resilient manner. I was

:11:05. > :11:10.confused by the introduction of the noble Viscount who has just sat down

:11:11. > :11:16.regarding the pros and cons of global warming. I am not certain

:11:17. > :11:21.which can I actually fall into but I am appeared to recognise that things

:11:22. > :11:29.have been changing, but will they go on changing. Nobody can predict what

:11:30. > :11:36.will happen in the future. All the computer models rely on the data put

:11:37. > :11:40.into them and nature can throw up a problem at any time. What, for

:11:41. > :11:47.instance, would happen if we were to have a major volcanic eruptions such

:11:48. > :11:51.as has happened in the past, as in your serenity Valley, or the western

:11:52. > :11:59.gaps of India? Which would totally transform the weather pattern --

:12:00. > :12:06.Yosemite Valley. And would probably to all intents and purposes

:12:07. > :12:08.increased the ice extent enormously. The problem is totally

:12:09. > :12:12.unpredictable. We can only prepare for what we think is happening but

:12:13. > :12:17.we do not know that it will continue to happen and I will not see any

:12:18. > :12:23.more on that subject. My Lords, I was also not a member of the

:12:24. > :12:28.Committee but I have visited Svalbard, admittedly about ten years

:12:29. > :12:34.ago, when I did a cruise in a former Swedish government icebreaker

:12:35. > :12:39.operation as a cruise ship, that was one of the last years were the ice

:12:40. > :12:45.extent was fairly severe and in fact we were unable to do what was

:12:46. > :12:49.intended in the cruise and that was circumnavigate the main island of

:12:50. > :12:57.Spitsbergen. We did, however, go up to 80 degrees north and had the

:12:58. > :13:03.delightful enjoyment of following polar bears in the ship, at a

:13:04. > :13:07.respectful distance, and I must say that the Arctic is simply wonderful.

:13:08. > :13:16.The silence is another thing that struck me. Now, the Lord said that

:13:17. > :13:23.the Committee, and I do congratulate the Committee on there port, were

:13:24. > :13:26.unable to visit that far and we did get there, as it happened, on

:13:27. > :13:32.Midsummer night, and we were strictly warned not to mix with the

:13:33. > :13:35.natives. In other words, the scientists, having an enormous party

:13:36. > :13:40.round the big bonfire. They had particular of liquid freshman and as

:13:41. > :13:45.we walked around the small settlement it took no time at all

:13:46. > :13:51.for the scientist to see -- scientists to say, come and join us,

:13:52. > :13:54.and we all had a very good party. My Lords, I would like to talk about

:13:55. > :13:58.the maritime side of the Arctic which has been mentioned by a number

:13:59. > :14:03.of nobles. It is absolutely true that the much trumpeted northern sea

:14:04. > :14:10.route has turned out so far to be a bit of a damp squid. If you look at

:14:11. > :14:14.the ships transiting the Northeast passage, you will see the vast

:14:15. > :14:23.majority of them are Russian ships, and a lot of them are taking oil or

:14:24. > :14:28.minerals from Russian settlements, not exactly going the whole way

:14:29. > :14:32.around the north of Russia. Those few other ships, apart from specific

:14:33. > :14:37.icebreakers that do go around, are in the main especially ice

:14:38. > :14:44.strengthened ships which, as I say, makes them a lot more expensive, but

:14:45. > :14:50.they belong, in the name, to just too or three companies. One in

:14:51. > :14:54.particular is a Danish company which has four reasonably large bulk

:14:55. > :14:59.carriers and two slightly smaller ones -- two or three. These are

:15:00. > :15:04.specifically built for Arctic conditions. One has in fact

:15:05. > :15:09.circumnavigated the world round the top by going to the north-west and

:15:10. > :15:13.the Northeast passage. The Northwest passage, if you look at the ships

:15:14. > :15:22.transiting, it is merely small yachts. The odd small cruise ship. I

:15:23. > :15:29.have mentioned, once eastward, taking call from Vancouver to

:15:30. > :15:33.Finland, and last year a Canadian bulk carrier took Michael

:15:34. > :15:41.concentrate, 23,000 tonnes, to China. -- nickel. She was able to

:15:42. > :15:46.complete the trip on her own without any assistance. Most of the ships

:15:47. > :15:51.going through the Northeast passage have to have icebreaker assistance,

:15:52. > :15:54.they have to have ice pilots. It is all very well to see the distance is

:15:55. > :16:01.shorter and indeed it is, quite a lot shorter. But you have those

:16:02. > :16:06.expenses, and certainly for some types of ships, they like to call

:16:07. > :16:11.into ports. Container ships are a particular example. A Chinese

:16:12. > :16:16.container ship went from China to Europe three years ago and the same

:16:17. > :16:23.ship has just completed its second voyage, which has led China to

:16:24. > :16:28.announce that there is a new waterway opening up for trade. I

:16:29. > :16:34.will believe that when I see it. The season is not particularly long, it

:16:35. > :16:38.lasts from early July to mid-November, about now. Most of the

:16:39. > :16:45.ships in the early period are specifically icebreakers. Now I very

:16:46. > :16:50.much doubt if the Chinese, as recorded, and this only happened

:16:51. > :16:55.last week, we'll actually set up a regular container routes because of

:16:56. > :17:07.the unpredictability. We have heard talk of the hydrographic charts and

:17:08. > :17:13.that they are not necessarily up to international standards and the

:17:14. > :17:16.unpredictability of ice means that you can be sailing along in

:17:17. > :17:20.Clearwater for two or three days, quite happily, and in the next day

:17:21. > :17:27.you are completely surrounded by thick ice because the ice is moved

:17:28. > :17:31.by wind and can shift all the time. So, my Lords, I do not think there

:17:32. > :17:38.is going to be, certainly for the time being, any major traffic routes

:17:39. > :17:42.for international traffic round the North. Indeed, the Russians, who

:17:43. > :17:48.were very overoptimistic when they started opening up this waterway,

:17:49. > :17:52.have had to eat their words and see now that international traffic will

:17:53. > :17:57.actually be very small. Less than 1% of what goes through the Suez Canal.

:17:58. > :18:05.The other reasons that chips go through series is because they

:18:06. > :18:13.off-load other containers. If you go around the North, you will not load

:18:14. > :18:21.anything. The international maritime organisation reported that this year

:18:22. > :18:27.in May, they adopted a new environmental part to their polar

:18:28. > :18:31.code and from the 1st of January 20 17th, it is going to be mandatory

:18:32. > :18:36.for all new ships to adopt this and that will be dealing with

:18:37. > :18:47.environmental matters like discharge of oil, discharge of sewage, water,

:18:48. > :18:53.etc. And all ships after the 1st of January, 2018, will have to be

:18:54. > :19:02.bought up to standard when they go through their renewal. My Lords, the

:19:03. > :19:08.noble Lord mentioned cruise ships and indeed many small cruise ships

:19:09. > :19:13.have been operating in Antarctic and Arctic waters for some time. The

:19:14. > :19:17.larger ships going down to Antarctica are beginning to move

:19:18. > :19:24.into northern waters, and I am talking about ships holding 3000,

:19:25. > :19:28.4000 passengers. Greenland is particularly worried about this.

:19:29. > :19:33.They have stipulated that when a ship of that size goes up, it must

:19:34. > :19:38.be in conflict with another ship of the same size, so there are two

:19:39. > :19:42.ships. That is not necessarily a good thing because I was talking to

:19:43. > :19:49.the former captain of the QE2 earlier today and he said it is

:19:50. > :19:53.dangerous enough for one ship. Two can double the danger, if you see

:19:54. > :20:01.what I mean. There are quite a number of things still to be sorted

:20:02. > :20:05.out, and incidentally, looking on the web today, I see that the ice

:20:06. > :20:11.sheet at Greenland has been growing this year. The fastest rate for the

:20:12. > :20:16.last four years. So again, the situation is still very

:20:17. > :20:22.unpredictable. My Lords, the government's response has been

:20:23. > :20:28.measured. Recognising the supremacy of the Arctic Council, but I think

:20:29. > :20:33.they are absolutely right to continue to be as engaged as is

:20:34. > :20:38.possible, certainly in terms of which expertise. Whether it is oil

:20:39. > :20:47.spill response and all those sorts of things. The key to everything as

:20:48. > :20:53.it has been said is cooperation. Not only the Arctic states, but

:20:54. > :20:57.internationally. Russia has been mentioned at length. I think Russia

:20:58. > :21:04.is always a bit of an unknown quantity. They are certainly

:21:05. > :21:08.building icebreakers and rescue ships. They are also setting up

:21:09. > :21:13.reporting stations. One can never tell what Russia is going to do and

:21:14. > :21:19.if I was a commercial shipping man, which I am not, I would think very

:21:20. > :21:24.carefully about sending my ships regularly around the north of

:21:25. > :21:28.Russia. My Lords, we have heard earn interesting debate and I look

:21:29. > :21:33.forward to the response. My Lords, when it gets towards the end of a

:21:34. > :21:38.debate like this with so much expertise in the room, in fact

:21:39. > :21:43.expertise that has listened to everything that I have, there is not

:21:44. > :21:49.much new to say. However, I do have one small advantage over the rest of

:21:50. > :21:56.the committee. I was the member of it we were sent to the Arctic Circle

:21:57. > :22:00.Assembly in Reykjavik. This was a meeting of all those based and

:22:01. > :22:05.interested in the Arctic on a big sell. Everything from commercial

:22:06. > :22:09.interest to scientific. If I concentrate most of my remarks on

:22:10. > :22:15.what I actually saw there, I might be able to bring something new to

:22:16. > :22:22.our discussions. The primary thing, and James Gray MP who led the

:22:23. > :22:30.delegation, but is no longer at the bar of the house unfortunately, led

:22:31. > :22:37.the group. It had been stated before that the British had been absent. It

:22:38. > :22:41.was not appreciated that a nation close to it, had the scientific

:22:42. > :22:51.base, knew what it was talking about in terms of research, was not

:22:52. > :22:54.representative. A big British delegation went and that was

:22:55. > :22:59.appreciated by the rest of those there. It was thought to be a good

:23:00. > :23:05.thing. Something that resonated far beyond most reports, especially when

:23:06. > :23:10.they are in the process of being discussed. We go up there and we are

:23:11. > :23:15.presented and it is seen by all these major European powers and just

:23:16. > :23:20.about everybody else. Remember, Lord Greenway just spoke about shipping,

:23:21. > :23:28.every other major shipping nation on the planet. Singapore, China,

:23:29. > :23:34.Japan, you name it, they were there. It is a good thing we took part in

:23:35. > :23:38.that conference. The fact we were interested and sent a delegation

:23:39. > :23:44.forward. It also led to one of these moments that can only happen by

:23:45. > :23:48.accident. It was said, and because of the time of year everyone was

:23:49. > :23:58.wearing poppies, it was said that we should all web pop-up poppies and

:23:59. > :24:12.when we were on the stage, we all have our poppies and make a speech.

:24:13. > :24:16.A 23-year-old German research student came up to me and said, why

:24:17. > :24:22.are you wearing flowers on your lapel? Is it something to do with

:24:23. > :24:27.gay rights? That was an interesting conversation, which would add to the

:24:28. > :24:32.debate here, but it just shows at bit of interaction and it means you

:24:33. > :24:40.can take some understanding to the rest of the world. But as we went

:24:41. > :24:46.through, and most of the things in this debate was spoken about in

:24:47. > :24:52.small clusters, I think Lord Hunt spoke about melting ice caps and

:24:53. > :24:57.methane, films I saw about jets of flame coming spontaneously out of

:24:58. > :25:04.the ground, sometimes caused by light catching on water, it will

:25:05. > :25:11.happen spontaneously. You can do it in the Arctic where the permafrost

:25:12. > :25:15.is melting. Anyone denies that the world is getting warmer should have

:25:16. > :25:22.had a good walk around there. It is, but we don't know at what rate.

:25:23. > :25:28.IS, we have heard a lot of debates, but there is no way of knowing

:25:29. > :25:34.exactly when you will get a through route. This was something put to me.

:25:35. > :25:42.Because you have got rid of most of the eyes doesn't mean to say it is

:25:43. > :25:51.save for shipping. An iceberg resize of a small car can take out a big

:25:52. > :25:56.ship. Titanic, forget it. If it is carrying oil, God help all of us.

:25:57. > :26:01.All of these considerations coming through. Discussions about insurers,

:26:02. > :26:09.what should go with it to exploit it, and back to melting permafrost.

:26:10. > :26:12.We think it is a good idea for the extraction of minerals, but not for

:26:13. > :26:19.a long time because you don't get firm ground you get swamped and

:26:20. > :26:21.scrub forest. Probably more difficult to operate in than

:26:22. > :26:26.permafrost. We just don't know what these changes will be which is

:26:27. > :26:33.probably why we should be paying far more attention to the scientific

:26:34. > :26:38.observer base. And not just pure science, but applied science.

:26:39. > :26:43.Engineering, everything else. We will not know what we can do on what

:26:44. > :26:49.the chances. My Lords, also at the conference there was a huge in the

:26:50. > :26:52.room. The elephant in the room that was not there. Well, the bear in the

:26:53. > :26:59.room that was not there. Russia was not present because of what had

:27:00. > :27:05.happened to him Ukraine. Well, not totally there. There were some

:27:06. > :27:08.regional Russian representatives. There was a particularly colourful

:27:09. > :27:15.gentleman who said he represented all the rain day herders across

:27:16. > :27:23.Russia. He said there was a rain day heard in Scotland, which I was

:27:24. > :27:30.ignorant of, but apparently there is one. How can you discuss the

:27:31. > :27:35.shipping lanes when the person who provides safety and monitoring is

:27:36. > :27:41.not there? Unless we establish lines of communication, which everyone I

:27:42. > :27:45.think agrees on, article lines of communication, we are never going to

:27:46. > :27:55.achieve even some useful activity up here. We will never be able to trust

:27:56. > :27:59.our own interests. Now, to try and draw some conclusion and overview on

:28:00. > :28:05.this, the changes in the Arctic that we discovered that our Boeing faces

:28:06. > :28:13.are leading to opportunities. The fact is we simply don't know what

:28:14. > :28:18.they are going to be yet. As everything changes, as everything

:28:19. > :28:22.down there changes, the attitudes towards people, the social

:28:23. > :28:27.pressures, everything is going to change and unless we can interact

:28:28. > :28:32.with that at a more rounded level, we are going to make mistakes. My

:28:33. > :28:35.Lords, the committee, and it was reinforced to me when I was in

:28:36. > :28:43.wretch of it, the committee heard about how some things like

:28:44. > :28:49.Greenpeace is surrounded by expletives by the Canadians and

:28:50. > :28:53.Greenland. They really don't like them. These are people who say, you

:28:54. > :28:59.cannot kill things, it is naughty. They said we make a living from

:29:00. > :29:05.harvesting seals. In fact harvesting polar bears was suggested to me, and

:29:06. > :29:09.I found the hard to take. How we integrate with these people, if we

:29:10. > :29:24.don't talk to Russia, we won't find out what most of these people think.

:29:25. > :29:31.We cannot pass economic growth on to parts of the community. Unless we

:29:32. > :29:35.invest in the diplomatic and scientific community and study that

:29:36. > :29:43.is required, and let us face it, it is on a global level, we are going

:29:44. > :29:46.to miss out, and I would hope that the government in the future takes

:29:47. > :29:53.on this work and realises that this is merely a starting point, one that

:29:54. > :29:57.we must invest time and energy into. Probably not that much money, but

:29:58. > :30:01.time and energy to get the best out of this because if we don't, we will

:30:02. > :30:07.be missing out on the changing situation which will tell us about

:30:08. > :30:12.Troubles to come and opportunities. My Lords, I would like to join

:30:13. > :30:19.others in thanking the committee for the report. Grass are becoming de

:30:20. > :30:25.Villiers for -- did we go for reports. In this case they played a

:30:26. > :30:32.special part because without seeing some of the photographs we would not

:30:33. > :30:37.have carried the narrative so well. It was very helpful to have them. I

:30:38. > :30:41.would also like to thank the chair of the committee for his excellent

:30:42. > :30:53.introduction which managed to draw the climate issues and the science

:30:54. > :30:58.together. They are at the heart of the report. I am one of the three

:30:59. > :31:04.people speaking on the debate today he was not able to visit, who was

:31:05. > :31:08.not a member of the committee. We have missed out. The trip seems to

:31:09. > :31:12.have weighed heavily on those who were able to do it and they came

:31:13. > :31:17.back with new insights about it. But even if I was not there, I think

:31:18. > :31:22.what has been said enough today is that we all need to think much

:31:23. > :31:25.harder about this area, it's size, its remoteness, the fact that kind

:31:26. > :31:31.of change is real and happening there. The fact that there are so

:31:32. > :31:36.many people who live in such a barren and open space. A population

:31:37. > :31:40.of about 4 million people. They need to be looked after. There are

:31:41. > :31:44.strange governance arrangements. Those who live there are still not

:31:45. > :31:48.directly involved in how the area is governed. The need for more science

:31:49. > :31:53.because we don't know enough about what is happening there and more

:31:54. > :32:00.corporation in that study is a theme that comes out strongly. The fact

:32:01. > :32:04.that the group that largely controls things are now being joined by more

:32:05. > :32:11.and more countries interested in this area and not because they have

:32:12. > :32:17.geographical connections but because they see the resources that are

:32:18. > :32:20.available. Other parts of Europe are getting involved and our interest in

:32:21. > :32:26.that is not just because we are the closest neighbour to the Arctic

:32:27. > :32:31.Circle, and that is important, but because we have historically engaged

:32:32. > :32:33.with this area over a long period of time and we think it is important to

:32:34. > :32:43.want to continue to do so. What comes out of the report from

:32:44. > :32:49.me, reading it relatively cold, and sorry about the pun, the first part

:32:50. > :32:54.was we need to try to insulate the Arctic from tensions are rising in

:32:55. > :32:57.other parts of the world, whether that's a good or bad thing, it

:32:58. > :33:03.raises the question on whether that is feasible. The report is

:33:04. > :33:06.interested in not just the geopolitical tensions, which are

:33:07. > :33:14.important and will impact if action is not taken, but also the physical

:33:15. > :33:17.and resource questions, which I want to come back too, which might

:33:18. > :33:21.perhaps require some form of isolation or protection of the area

:33:22. > :33:35.as they haul in terms of fishing and drilling access to resources. The

:33:36. > :33:38.point is that most of the immediate pressures on the Arctic originated

:33:39. > :33:43.elsewhere and continue to have a huge impact. We talk about carbon

:33:44. > :33:45.dioxide warming methane also. The economic development that are

:33:46. > :33:49.causing resource pressures that might in turn affected badly and we

:33:50. > :33:53.just heard about seal culling and other impacts that affect indigenous

:33:54. > :34:00.people. We have lots of things going on and it is not clear how the

:34:01. > :34:04.present Government's structures and interests in this will be calibrated

:34:05. > :34:10.in order to deal with it. The beer in the room, Russia, that has been

:34:11. > :34:18.mentioned. Several people made important contributions to this

:34:19. > :34:22.effect. The real politic of this is as important as the long-term gains

:34:23. > :34:26.in terms of cooperation between nation stationery actions and the

:34:27. > :34:31.real presence of people wanting to do different things in this area

:34:32. > :34:34.suggests that we as a country and using whatever power and influence

:34:35. > :34:38.we have in other areas need to work directly with people who we would

:34:39. > :34:42.perhaps want to differ with an certain areas if we want to protect

:34:43. > :34:46.the Arctic. That is very important that in that respect I think the

:34:47. > :34:50.contribution by the noble Baroness Miller on the possibility of

:34:51. > :34:54.creating a nuclear free zone is worth a response to the minister

:34:55. > :34:57.when he comes to make comments. It is not just nuclear positions, we

:34:58. > :35:02.have militarisation going on for stopping mentioned the fact that

:35:03. > :35:06.most people seem to think that Russia has at least regenerated its

:35:07. > :35:11.capacity a few decades ago and others are not far behind. What will

:35:12. > :35:16.happen? That is the real and present threat in the cupboard will need to

:35:17. > :35:21.take this on and will the Minister make some comments on that? I

:35:22. > :35:24.mentioned already the fact that we are talking about a significant

:35:25. > :35:29.number of people who live in this area and have the guinea resources

:35:30. > :35:33.necessary to provide the living and work with whatever other agencies

:35:34. > :35:38.are up there. We note in the response that the Government agrees

:35:39. > :35:45.with the committee that the right way to do this is to the Arctic

:35:46. > :35:49.Council. The question is then how does that gets developed? Who is on

:35:50. > :35:52.its? What are the relative powers and responsibility is in particular

:35:53. > :35:55.and how do we take pole -- take forward the interests of the

:35:56. > :35:58.indigenous people? The opening march called for a strengthened role for

:35:59. > :36:02.the indigenous people if we will make sure this is a sustainable

:36:03. > :36:09.long-term arrangement and there are real practical and operational

:36:10. > :36:12.difficulties to do that. The minister might like to respond

:36:13. > :36:16.further on that matter. The most startling thing I noticed was this

:36:17. > :36:20.figure that has been mentioned by couple of people, 30 person of the

:36:21. > :36:25.world's undiscovered report on Mogra garble gas and 30% of undiscovered

:36:26. > :36:35.recoverable oil supplies are in the Arctic. -- recoverable gas. It is

:36:36. > :36:40.opportunity cost by other effects elsewhere that allow for that first

:36:41. > :36:46.post to get our act together if we think how best to approach that

:36:47. > :36:50.issue. It will be largely led by the private sector, even though those

:36:51. > :36:56.who wish to be involved will make representations, if they will. The

:36:57. > :37:00.march of progress and that amount of resources available together with

:37:01. > :37:08.the changing climate making these gas and oil supplies more easy to

:37:09. > :37:13.reach will cause problems in the near term if it is not immediately.

:37:14. > :37:17.How will this happen? The Government response is the best way to do this

:37:18. > :37:22.is by working through existing arrangements and instruments and so

:37:23. > :37:29.far as it goes that is a good starting point. Take the first of

:37:30. > :37:34.the oil and gas issues, the problems if these are developed, as mentioned

:37:35. > :37:40.before, is the need to make sure that the proper remediating

:37:41. > :37:43.activities are put in place and we are alerted to the fact that this

:37:44. > :37:48.will cause incredible damage if these things are not probably looks

:37:49. > :37:52.after -- properly. There's quite a bit of policy on this area through

:37:53. > :37:56.the UN, the guiding principles and the action on mining and extractive

:37:57. > :38:00.industries are also there. I wonder industries are also there. I wonder

:38:01. > :38:02.if the noble minister would share with us believe that the

:38:03. > :38:09.Government's response to this was strong enough in the -- given the

:38:10. > :38:14.need to make sure that there should be important principles to be relied

:38:15. > :38:18.on? On the question of fishing, the Government's response was called

:38:19. > :38:24.inadequate and out of date. Given the rise the Government is making on

:38:25. > :38:28.the UN Convention on the law the sea to which one of the major partners,

:38:29. > :38:33.the USA, is not a member, is always a bit of a problem. As he says, this

:38:34. > :38:38.may not be the best neck and is because if there is already

:38:39. > :38:43.something in place side by four countries, we should look carefully

:38:44. > :38:48.at. The noble minister must respond to progress on that area. Lots of

:38:49. > :38:53.this will be about diplomacy and the willingness of the oven to limit

:38:54. > :38:58.other governments to invest and make sure the desirable objectives set

:38:59. > :39:00.out are achieved. As explained, there is now sealed minister for the

:39:01. > :39:04.polar regions but the Government does not seem to believe there is a

:39:05. > :39:07.need for an appointment of a single UK investor and a number of Lords

:39:08. > :39:14.has stated that would make no difference. Whether or not an

:39:15. > :39:17.individual, whether planning potential is part of the

:39:18. > :39:20.ambassadorial service, the issue is surely about whether not the

:39:21. > :39:23.resources will be there to make sure the decisions taken in this area and

:39:24. > :39:29.the impact we wish to have can be made effective. Lord Addington made

:39:30. > :39:33.much of the fact that when we did send a delegation, that was well

:39:34. > :39:38.received and the wishes we should continue to do so. Governments

:39:39. > :39:42.should not will the ends of policy without willingly means. The

:39:43. > :39:45.nobleman as Japan confirmed that their commitment to have

:39:46. > :39:51.representation, even though it may be described rather differently in

:39:52. > :39:59.the report will be resourced on time. -- the nobleman has confirmed.

:40:00. > :40:06.Given the interest we should not be seen that we will do it all me

:40:07. > :40:10.resources permit. The final phrase before we get to the summary of

:40:11. > :40:14.conclusions, the UK is the Arctic's nearest neighbour and the Arctic is

:40:15. > :40:17.the UK's neighbourhood. It is a clever piece of an arrangement of

:40:18. > :40:20.words but I think it means for words but I think it means for

:40:21. > :40:23.others that the Government has got to invest in this leadership if it

:40:24. > :40:29.is going to reap the benefits for the UK and French national comment

:40:30. > :40:36.tests. It is to important to be left others. That common interests. In

:40:37. > :40:40.his opening feat speech the Lord described the report as a wake-up

:40:41. > :40:43.call and I think he probably meant a wake-up call to the Government, I

:40:44. > :40:47.look forward to the Minister's response to that come was a member

:40:48. > :40:51.of the committee and has some prior knowledge of what to say in how to

:40:52. > :40:55.do it. I hope this will also be a wake-up call more generally. We

:40:56. > :40:59.often keep our heads down in this house and look only at domestic

:41:00. > :41:03.issues. You read this report and see a wider world and great aspirations

:41:04. > :41:07.and huge interests which we should have more involvement in. I was

:41:08. > :41:11.grateful to be given a chance to speak in this debate and it I let --

:41:12. > :41:18.learn more about this wonderful world.

:41:19. > :41:25.This has been an interesting debate on important subject. I would like

:41:26. > :41:29.to thank all the warlords who contributed and given their wide

:41:30. > :41:42.experience and knowledge. It is cost come in the select committee debates

:41:43. > :41:46.to thank the chair. -- all of the Lords. All too briefly a member of

:41:47. > :41:51.this committee before I was into and in the permafrost of the Government

:41:52. > :41:57.Whip's office. I also thank all other noble Lords and staff involved

:41:58. > :42:00.for their outstanding efforts in putting together a balanced,

:42:01. > :42:07.thoughtful and well evidenced report. Lastly, thank you to my

:42:08. > :42:11.noble friend Robin Tugendhat -- Lord Tugendhat who proposed the idea of

:42:12. > :42:19.the select committee and focusing attention on this important area of

:42:20. > :42:22.the changing Arctic. My Lords, as the Government's response makes

:42:23. > :42:26.clear, the Government believes its approach to the Arctic is laid out

:42:27. > :42:30.in the Arctic policy framework was and remains the right one. However,

:42:31. > :42:35.we also agree that more can be done to wish that the UK continues to

:42:36. > :42:39.take a leading role in the Arctic issues that affect us and we are

:42:40. > :42:45.grateful to the committee for their constructive suggestions on how to

:42:46. > :42:47.do this. Response set out a number of steps which, taken together,

:42:48. > :42:53.represent a significant revolution of the UK's policy. It is certainly

:42:54. > :42:59.worth noting and celebrating the fact that of the 67 conclusions and

:43:00. > :43:03.recommendations in the committee's report, there are only two civic

:43:04. > :43:07.areas, the apartment of unofficial Arctic Ambassador, which I will come

:43:08. > :43:13.to later, and redesigning the assisting Arctic policy framework as

:43:14. > :43:16.has not been persuaded of the has not been persuaded of the

:43:17. > :43:26.strength of the committee's recommendations. The -- the UK's

:43:27. > :43:29.Arctic policy is based on leadership, respect and cooperation.

:43:30. > :43:33.The Government will show that leadership which Lord Terrace and

:43:34. > :43:39.wanted to come first by hosting an international policy Forum at Wilton

:43:40. > :43:42.Park. It will address a major policy issue affecting the Arctic and we

:43:43. > :43:47.will organise it in Corporation with our Arctic partners to make sure it

:43:48. > :43:51.governments rather than duplicate the work of the Arctic Council and

:43:52. > :43:55.we will fool the event on how best to ensure that we and our fellow

:43:56. > :44:01.non-Arctic states can engage in practical policy terms in working

:44:02. > :44:04.with the Arctic Council's states to deliver their long-term vision for a

:44:05. > :44:09.safe, peaceful, successful and inclusive Arctic. We are working

:44:10. > :44:16.hard on this and we hope to be in a position to confirm the date of this

:44:17. > :44:22.conference in the near future. The committee's report quite rightly

:44:23. > :44:25.pointed out the gaps in our understanding of the Arctic Ocean. I

:44:26. > :44:30.am delighted that following the Government's response the natural

:44:31. > :44:35.environment research Council decided to find a multi-year ?60 million to

:44:36. > :44:40.the deep -- strategic research programme called the changing Arctic

:44:41. > :44:44.Ocean, implications for rebels you and biogeochemistry looking at the

:44:45. > :44:50.important change in the Arctic Ocean. This was also highlighted

:44:51. > :44:53.earlier. This research will help address some of the biggest

:44:54. > :44:59.knowledge gaps in our understanding of the Arctic. It is a worthy

:45:00. > :45:03.demonstration of the continued UK commitment this unique region, the

:45:04. > :45:10.programme builds on the ?15 million Arctic research programme which ran

:45:11. > :45:13.from 2010 to 2015. At which has already been using valuable data and

:45:14. > :45:17.conclusions which assist our understanding of this rapidly

:45:18. > :45:20.changing region. We are also committing to a number of steps that

:45:21. > :45:22.will build on the coordination that will build on the coordination

:45:23. > :45:27.adorably exists across Government and the research community. The

:45:28. > :45:31.Commonwealth office building the discussions across Whitehall to

:45:32. > :45:34.develop and agree plans for engaging with the Arctic Council. The plans

:45:35. > :45:39.will align with a set of Arctic Council chairmanship priorities and

:45:40. > :45:44.enable us to focus and maintain our engagement on those subjects that

:45:45. > :45:47.matter most to us. The UK's Arctic office, funded by the natural

:45:48. > :45:53.environment research Council and hosted by the British Antarctic

:45:54. > :45:55.survey, will assist ordination to insure more impact of involvement in

:45:56. > :45:59.the Arctic across research disciplines. And the Government,

:46:00. > :46:05.through the science and innovation network, will explore is -- options

:46:06. > :46:07.for agreeing a memorandum of understanding in Arctic polar

:46:08. > :46:15.research would key partner countries. These will help build on

:46:16. > :46:17.the support and support the already extensive framework for cooperation

:46:18. > :46:21.at or exist between UK scientists and their international

:46:22. > :46:26.counterparts. -- that already exists. The Government's commitment

:46:27. > :46:31.has been visibly demonstrated by the announcement earlier this year on

:46:32. > :46:38.their decision to procure a new joint million pound polar research

:46:39. > :46:40.vessel. This vessel will be built in the UK and will provide a

:46:41. > :46:47.state-of-the-art platform for the latest polar

:46:48. > :46:57.My Lords, can I turn to, if I can start with the main point that we

:46:58. > :47:06.disagreed with the committee on. The appointment of an Arctic ambassador

:47:07. > :47:10.that have been mentioned, we accept that we need to have a better

:47:11. > :47:18.coordination of efforts, but we are not convinced of the Abbey benefits

:47:19. > :47:25.that an Arctic ambassador would bring. We have a Minister for the

:47:26. > :47:29.polar region to represent the UK. We have senior civil servants that the

:47:30. > :47:41.firm the same functions as other Arctic ambassadors, in all but name.

:47:42. > :47:45.I almost thought that the noble Lord was putting in a job application,

:47:46. > :47:52.but he said he was not. There will be some costs, but actually, we also

:47:53. > :47:55.have 200 scientists who work in collaboration with others in the

:47:56. > :47:59.Arctic and they are themselves fantastic ambassadors for the UK.

:48:00. > :48:09.Our response commits us to a more strategic commitment and a greater

:48:10. > :48:12.role for the head of the UK Arctic office across scientific

:48:13. > :48:16.disciplines. We feel our methods have been rather more affected, but

:48:17. > :48:29.I would save to the noble Lord that we have not closed our minds, and we

:48:30. > :48:36.take note of the points regarding the ambassador, and I also welcome

:48:37. > :48:43.the positive comments about the polar regions department in the

:48:44. > :48:49.common Foreign Commonwealth Office. The cost I mentioned, but

:48:50. > :49:01.the additional costs for an ambassador, I don't take our -- I

:49:02. > :49:06.den think is the main issue. The job the ambassador would do is not

:49:07. > :49:19.actually at the moment fully convincing for us. The noble Lords

:49:20. > :49:24.and lazy asked about the practical points about the appropriate

:49:25. > :49:29.representation to all political level meetings of the Arctic

:49:30. > :49:35.Council. We have been represented by the polar regions department at

:49:36. > :49:42.political level meetings. By that I mean senior Arctic ministerial

:49:43. > :49:49.meetings since the start of the Arctic Council in 1996. The exact

:49:50. > :49:51.level of representation from the UK, official ministerial, is determined

:49:52. > :49:57.by the nature of the under discussion. We keep all the meetings

:49:58. > :50:07.under review and will always ensure that the UK is represented at the

:50:08. > :50:13.appropriate level. The UK's Arctic office will fund the UK's expert

:50:14. > :50:16.participation with the Arctic Council working groups and task

:50:17. > :50:20.forces in line with the UK scientific and strategic priorities

:50:21. > :50:27.and other sleep subject to resources. The noble Lord Lord

:50:28. > :50:31.Addington talks about the UK presence at the Arctic Circle

:50:32. > :50:40.Assembly in 2015, and he mentioned the fact that we have maintained a

:50:41. > :50:44.profile which was set by the 2014 delegation that he attended. This

:50:45. > :50:51.year's delegation was led by the foreign and, whilst office's chief

:50:52. > :50:58.scientific officer. Interestingly, Russia had a significant presence at

:50:59. > :51:03.the Arctic Circle in 2015. The deputy minister of transport and the

:51:04. > :51:13.Governor of Archangel province amongst them. These forums are

:51:14. > :51:17.useful for cooperation at many different levels. Lord Hunt and Lord

:51:18. > :51:22.Ochs broke asked if we should have better coordination of UK effort in

:51:23. > :51:28.the Arctic Council. We agreed that we could be better coordinated and

:51:29. > :51:33.paragraph 75 of the government's response is pertinent here. The

:51:34. > :51:39.SCA's polar regions department together with a head of the UK

:51:40. > :51:45.Arctic office under the direction of the British Antarctic survey will

:51:46. > :51:54.assist in this coordination. Turning to the subject mentioned by many

:51:55. > :51:59.noble Lords of Russia. One of the major Arctic states and a key player

:52:00. > :52:09.given the problems that are occurring with cooperation with

:52:10. > :52:16.Russia, given the sanctions against them around the world. They are a

:52:17. > :52:25.signatory to the declaration of 2008 which commits the Arctic states to

:52:26. > :52:31.using international systems and minimising the potential for

:52:32. > :52:35.conflict. So far in any disputes they have had, for example, the

:52:36. > :52:44.dispute with Norway, they have used international rules -based

:52:45. > :52:47.organisations to achieve that. This was reiterated in 2015 at the end of

:52:48. > :52:56.the Canadian chairmanship, which Russia agreed. But we are not naive

:52:57. > :53:04.about Roger's military posture and related issues in the Arctic. The

:53:05. > :53:07.establishment, or the reopening of small-scale military search and

:53:08. > :53:13.rescue facilities is something that has been proceeding for some time.

:53:14. > :53:16.It is taking place within Russian sovereign territory and we don't

:53:17. > :53:22.think it creates a real cause for concern, but I must stress that we

:53:23. > :53:28.value cooperation in the Arctic and we think that it is a special place

:53:29. > :53:34.in the world, as the noble Lords and others have mentioned. This so far

:53:35. > :53:41.applies to Russia and is a model of what could happen in the rest of the

:53:42. > :53:47.world. I can point, for example, to scientific cooperation with Russia,

:53:48. > :53:54.which is still ongoing. In fact, a small team from the Russian Arctic

:53:55. > :54:00.and Antarctic research team visited the UK in April 2015. This leave the

:54:01. > :54:09.Russian scientific case is extremely important. Russia is crucial to

:54:10. > :54:17.understanding Arctic Systems, especially understanding the melting

:54:18. > :54:24.of the permafrost and the release of methane gas. We will be looking at

:54:25. > :54:28.ways to collaborate more effectively. We are keen to ensure

:54:29. > :54:32.follow through and to work more closely with Russia and the head of

:54:33. > :54:44.the UK's Arctic office will be addressing these issues along with

:54:45. > :54:48.numerous others. Lady Neville Jones made an interesting point about the

:54:49. > :54:54.consideration of Arctic issues in policy-making. The publication of

:54:55. > :54:58.the UK Arctic policy framework had demonstrated the government's

:54:59. > :55:03.consideration of Arctic matters across a range of UK policy

:55:04. > :55:07.interest. This is going to be reviewed by the end of the financial

:55:08. > :55:10.year. The Foreign Office will continue to chair the cross

:55:11. > :55:16.government Arctic network to ensure the continued focus on Arctic

:55:17. > :55:23.matters across relevant policy areas. Noble Lord Stevenson asked

:55:24. > :55:29.about principles for mining and extractive industries. Actually, the

:55:30. > :55:34.governments of those extractive industries live primarily with the

:55:35. > :55:45.Arctic states which is where they take place at the moment and will

:55:46. > :55:49.continue to a extent. The UK encourages the highest safety

:55:50. > :55:57.standards and as was mentioned, the polar code, the first part of it,

:55:58. > :56:03.has been signed as part of the International Maritime

:56:04. > :56:09.organisation's efforts. The noble Lords taught about fishing in the

:56:10. > :56:14.high seas and the Arctic. The UK is supportive of the creation of marine

:56:15. > :56:19.protected areas where the science supports this. We are working with

:56:20. > :56:24.other partners to assess an appropriate marine protection

:56:25. > :56:30.measure. We are aware of the agreement between the five Arctic

:56:31. > :56:37.Mitchell states on a moratorium of fishing. We are sympathetic of their

:56:38. > :56:43.intention to gain further support from the EU and other fishing

:56:44. > :56:51.nations. Talking about search and rescue in the Arctic, which the

:56:52. > :56:53.noble Lord Hunt mentioned, we do have world-renowned expertise and

:56:54. > :57:01.significant knowledge and experience of such an risky as a general

:57:02. > :57:05.subject, but we don't have specific expertise in the Arctic search and

:57:06. > :57:11.rescue, which is held by the countries surrounding the Arctic.

:57:12. > :57:25.But we are very much alive to Coast Guard search and rescue. The

:57:26. > :57:31.Maritime search and rescue facilities are part of a review.

:57:32. > :57:41.Lord Hannay and Lord Greenway spoke about Arctic tourism and possibly

:57:42. > :57:48.help with search and rescue. Any charge on tourism in the Arctic is

:57:49. > :57:55.for the sovereign states, but operators and passengers do pay

:57:56. > :58:00.landing fees when they arrive, for example in ten Barack Obama and

:58:01. > :58:03.Greenland. It could be argued that passengers are already supporting

:58:04. > :58:24.such systems, but it would also usually be linked with military

:58:25. > :58:38.forces as well. -- for example, Svalbard. It is also hoped that

:58:39. > :58:44.there will be an operation during the summer, but I can't be precise

:58:45. > :58:52.about that. Lady Miller introduced an interesting new point which was

:58:53. > :59:00.not in the report about the nuclear free Arctic and she mentioned the

:59:01. > :59:04.growing support for this in many countries. We do recognise the

:59:05. > :59:15.aspiration for a nuclear free Arctic, but of course these matters

:59:16. > :59:19.are an issue for the sovereign Arctic states, but it is encouraging

:59:20. > :59:27.that the Arctic states, sadly without Russia, meet at defence

:59:28. > :59:34.level in the security forces round table. This includes the UK,

:59:35. > :59:44.Germany, Neverland and -- Netherlands and France. The noble

:59:45. > :59:46.Lords asked about indigenous peoples, and in particular their

:59:47. > :59:51.specific knowledge that they can contribute to the science base. We

:59:52. > :59:57.fully respect their rights and the focus of our efforts is to ensure

:59:58. > :00:01.indigenous peoples's knowledge is taken into account when developing

:00:02. > :00:06.Arctic science and we are pleased that the UK is able to work

:00:07. > :00:11.successfully with the Arctic Institute and the science innovation

:00:12. > :00:19.network to incorporate the views of the indigenous peoples. Will keep

:00:20. > :00:23.their thoughts firmly at the front of our Arctic policy. My Lords, if I

:00:24. > :00:31.have not answered all the questions, I am running out of time... We have

:00:32. > :00:40.not mentioned Scotland in the whole of this debate. There was a very

:00:41. > :00:44.important laboratory. You should not have this conference in Wilton Park,

:00:45. > :00:52.you should have in Scotland. It is part of the UK that is closest to

:00:53. > :00:56.the Arctic. People will criticise London-based thinking if we don't

:00:57. > :01:03.have the conference up in the North. I'd take that point, but I don't

:01:04. > :01:09.think we are having scientists -- but I don't think if we are having

:01:10. > :01:14.scientists sitting down and having discussions, it doesn't matter where

:01:15. > :01:25.they are. My Lords, I believe we have had a constructive and

:01:26. > :01:28.informative discussion about this relation -- about the relation of

:01:29. > :01:36.this unique region to the UK. The Arctic will read different in 20

:01:37. > :01:42.years' time. The UK will play its part and the steps outlined in the

:01:43. > :01:47.government response will ensure we remain one of the most active and

:01:48. > :01:52.influential non-sovereign states, but the policy towards the Arctic

:01:53. > :01:57.will be kept under review. It has two B to keep up with the rapid

:01:58. > :02:00.changes that we are seeing. The government will report back to the

:02:01. > :02:09.house through a letter to the chairman of the ladies on -- a

:02:10. > :02:18.letter to be chairman of the BEA zon committee. -- liaison.

:02:19. > :02:22.Representatives will be closely engaged. The steps outlined in the

:02:23. > :02:26.government response will ensure we remain one of the most active and

:02:27. > :02:39.influential non-Arctic states. I thank the Minister for his reply.

:02:40. > :02:43.I did not declare an interest as a board member of the marine

:02:44. > :02:46.management organisation. Can I thank all noble Lords that have taken part

:02:47. > :02:53.in this debate, not least those that have been on the committee, noble

:02:54. > :02:57.Baroness Miller, noble Lord Greenway, I didn't think anyone

:02:58. > :03:02.would manage to get the Western gets into the debate. Even though they

:03:03. > :03:06.exploded 56 million years ago, hopefully isn't within our lifetime

:03:07. > :03:09.that will happen again. I particularly agree with Lord Hannay

:03:10. > :03:17.in terms of the tourist tax when we arrived in small part -- arrived in

:03:18. > :03:24.style by we thought we were there at the heading of expedition into the

:03:25. > :03:26.unknown and the dangers and we were confronted by about 100 German

:03:27. > :03:31.tourists that would make the average age of the house of lords probably

:03:32. > :03:34.quite young. It shows how the tourist industry is changing and how

:03:35. > :03:39.we should maybe tax them even more for their search and rescue. I would

:03:40. > :03:45.thank particularly Baroness Neville Jones having taken the questions

:03:46. > :03:50.from the noble Lord West earlier on, quite undeserved but beautifully

:03:51. > :03:55.answered. Thank you. He did ask, I want to come back to Russia, which

:03:56. > :03:59.he raised. I personally invited the Ambassador of Russia to give

:04:00. > :04:06.evidence to was -- to us but unfortunately they were not able to

:04:07. > :04:11.design. We did ask Mr Cheney Graaf, the special wrap sensitive to the

:04:12. > :04:14.president of the Russian Federation for international cooperation in the

:04:15. > :04:19.Arctic and Antarctic but unfortunately neither of those

:04:20. > :04:26.happened. I do regret, as many of my colleagues do, that we are not going

:04:27. > :04:29.to appoint Ambassador for the Arctic. I am pleased that the

:04:30. > :04:34.minister has said the door is not closed. I saw the noble Lord Howell

:04:35. > :04:47.opposite me a while ago who produced an excellent report. He is there. I

:04:48. > :04:51.apologise. A EuroPro I've -- a year ago I reported -- produced a report

:04:52. > :04:55.on soft power and this seems a cheap way of including that. Can I give

:04:56. > :05:01.thanks to Italy for the cooperation of the foreign Commonwealth office

:05:02. > :05:05.through Jane Rumble, their head of the polar regions desk. Lord

:05:06. > :05:12.Tugendhat for suggesting that the house address this subject, not

:05:13. > :05:15.least, our special adviser, coastguards, professor at Royal

:05:16. > :05:22.Holloway College, Susanna Street, excellent clerk and Matt Smith, also

:05:23. > :05:27.are excellent policy analyst. My Lords as to the Government I would

:05:28. > :05:32.say the members of my committee, we will keep our eye on this issue. It

:05:33. > :05:37.is one where Britain needs a wake up not from a deep sleep, but from a

:05:38. > :05:41.snooze. We move forward and I think the Government's response is very

:05:42. > :05:47.encouraging and we will make sure that we keep a strong interest

:05:48. > :05:56.ourselves. I beg to move. The question that the motion be agreed?

:05:57. > :06:01.Message from the Commons. They have passed the national insurance

:06:02. > :06:07.contributions rate ceilings Bill to which they desire the agreement of

:06:08. > :06:12.your Lordships. My Lords, national insurance contributions ceilings

:06:13. > :06:23.Bill. I beg to move that this bill been ready first time. Those are not

:06:24. > :06:27.-- or not content? The Earl of Selbourne. My Lords, the purchase

:06:28. > :06:32.decision of this country is embarking on a period of profound

:06:33. > :06:35.change of the coming decades and this change will be judging by

:06:36. > :06:39.technological developments such as the increasing penetration of

:06:40. > :06:45.alternation and intelligent systems, the deployment of advanced

:06:46. > :06:50.fast acting controls the stunts, do -- systems, dispersed generation and

:06:51. > :06:53.a dispersed energy system going cruising complexity enormously but

:06:54. > :06:59.we will be increasing the reliance on a study for transport, eating,

:07:00. > :07:02.air conditioning and much else. This change will also be driven by our

:07:03. > :07:07.national commitment to decarbonise electricity systems. Yet our record

:07:08. > :07:14.frontispiece in supply and demand and ensuring the desirable to

:07:15. > :07:19.capacity margin is in place has in recent years been unimpressive. This

:07:20. > :07:22.is at a time when these far reaching changes are really astonishing to

:07:23. > :07:24.make a name that makes tracking to make an impact. It is against this

:07:25. > :07:30.background and with some speculation in the media that the subject might

:07:31. > :07:33.be the country might be subject to national blackouts. We decided to

:07:34. > :07:38.undertake an enquiry into the reserves of the unadjusted system. I

:07:39. > :07:41.referred me dressed list in appendix one of the report as a

:07:42. > :07:45.non-refundable institution of engineering and technology and valve

:07:46. > :07:53.the world Society and a shareholder in companies. I would like to thank

:07:54. > :07:56.our adviser Professor Jim Watson and Chris Clark for their invaluable

:07:57. > :08:02.contribute into producing a report. The Government has spoken of the

:08:03. > :08:09.need to reset policy and has initiated a number of energy policy

:08:10. > :08:12.changes can maybe decide and -- designed to catch cost the taxpayer

:08:13. > :08:17.but the Government is yet set a long-term vision for energy policy.

:08:18. > :08:21.Until the comments long-term energy policies have been formulated there

:08:22. > :08:27.is a gauge of the momentum on new investment in the energy sector

:08:28. > :08:33.being lost. The record impressive. Over ?42 billion has been invested

:08:34. > :08:39.in renewables since 2010. With over ?8 billion being invested in UK

:08:40. > :08:42.based renewable energy in 2014. Every Government must be prepared to

:08:43. > :08:47.formulate and articulate it clearly understood energy policy which

:08:48. > :08:52.results in a lot more balance between the three interconnected and

:08:53. > :08:57.competing demands of security of supply, sustainability and

:08:58. > :09:04.affordability. It is widely known as the energy dilemma. Security of

:09:05. > :09:08.supply has become an issue for the next few winters, this demonstrates

:09:09. > :09:13.that previous administrations have failed to get it right. Had not

:09:14. > :09:17.demand been registered by the economic crisis of 2008, that is

:09:18. > :09:23.industrial demand, largely, the capacity margins would have been

:09:24. > :09:29.even tighter or nonexistent. Obviously a commitment to nuclear

:09:30. > :09:34.power at ?92 50 per megawatt hour and so the more expensive renewable

:09:35. > :09:39.technologies such as offshore wind, currently at around ?118 per

:09:40. > :09:44.megawatt hour has to be reconciled at least in the medium term with a

:09:45. > :09:45.requirement for affordability. We concluded that successive

:09:46. > :09:51.governments might have anticipated the shrinking margin earlier and

:09:52. > :10:00.taken steps to address it. As a result of inaction, the narrow

:10:01. > :10:03.capacity margin that emerges poses a threat. A Coalition Government

:10:04. > :10:07.addressed this failure of previous long-term planning claim to

:10:08. > :10:12.Jerusalem at short notice -- by introducing at short notice and at

:10:13. > :10:14.considerable cost anywhere that conflict of the decarbonisation

:10:15. > :10:21.agenda with the pasty market, also known as the capacity mechanism.

:10:22. > :10:25.From 2018 on an income stream will be available for capacity divided

:10:26. > :10:28.national providers for keeping capacity available when system is

:10:29. > :10:31.stretched and interim measures known as balancing services have been

:10:32. > :10:37.introduced to plug any shortfalls in the period to 2018. The pasty market

:10:38. > :10:42.provides no incentive for the building of new generating plant --

:10:43. > :10:49.capacity market. Or the extension of interconnected. Instead come towards

:10:50. > :10:58.incumbents does make it rewards incumbents. -- instead it rewards

:10:59. > :11:00.incumbents. We were awarded if the capacity market overproduced the

:11:01. > :11:06.consequences would be higher prices to consumers, the undermining of

:11:07. > :11:08.renewable energy by transferring sports to conventional generators

:11:09. > :11:12.and the weakening of the business case for other options including

:11:13. > :11:19.fridge and connectors which will be increasingly important as the share

:11:20. > :11:24.of intermittent urgency from new -- from renewables rises. We were

:11:25. > :11:27.surprised at the amount of information on the true costs of

:11:28. > :11:32.villages -- electricity shortfalls. The personal conclusion of

:11:33. > :11:35.interconnection with foreign suppliers and industrial back-up

:11:36. > :11:38.generation needs to be rigorously assessed in order to make the

:11:39. > :11:42.appropriate decisions on the procurement of capacity. We

:11:43. > :11:47.recommended the Government reviews the contribution of interconnection

:11:48. > :11:52.and industrial back-up generation and what that could do to capacity

:11:53. > :11:57.margins. Since that report the National Grid has published helpful

:11:58. > :12:06.information on interconnection in its 2015 D capacity report. The

:12:07. > :12:11.electricity. In the meantime, new technologies will be the key to

:12:12. > :12:15.achieving a resilient electricity system and as with every aspect of

:12:16. > :12:19.the economy, will depend on investment and research and

:12:20. > :12:24.development to be competitive in the long-term. We must ensure that we

:12:25. > :12:28.are attracting the innovative companies that are most likely to

:12:29. > :12:32.advance these technologies, investors value continuity of

:12:33. > :12:36.policies and want to be assured that whatever national energy policies

:12:37. > :12:43.are put in place, these policies will stay in place for at least the

:12:44. > :12:47.medium term. Investors will also be attracted to this country by the

:12:48. > :12:52.quality of our publicly funded research. There is a case for public

:12:53. > :12:57.funds also contribute to development and the of new technologies but such

:12:58. > :13:03.support should only be given if in the medium term it reduces the cost

:13:04. > :13:06.of these new technologies. A technology with long-term alliance

:13:07. > :13:17.of subsidies is clearly not sustainable. The long-term reliance.

:13:18. > :13:22.Improving buildings dressed in favourably with other European

:13:23. > :13:24.countries. Yet this can make the biggest in Britain today for ability

:13:25. > :13:31.voters to stop breathing energy efficiency is often the cheapest way

:13:32. > :13:33.to bring down emissions. The committee on climate change has

:13:34. > :13:38.noted that industrial energy efficiency lacks effective policy

:13:39. > :13:41.the Government has committed the Green deal while the energy company

:13:42. > :13:47.obligation is due to end in March 2017. Both measures aim to improve

:13:48. > :13:52.energy efficiency in the built environment. The key message from

:13:53. > :13:58.the report is that we need to improve our long-term planning of

:13:59. > :14:00.the electricity system and this will require clarity of the roles of the

:14:01. > :14:06.many bridges and is in the electricity market and requires

:14:07. > :14:09.openness about the present unforeseeable state of technology.

:14:10. > :14:17.It is imperative to look at the electricity system is -- as a

:14:18. > :14:22.entirety so that conclusions are not missed. The institution of

:14:23. > :14:28.engineering technology made the case to us for the seat to smack

:14:29. > :14:31.electricity system architect that would have responsible for embedding

:14:32. > :14:39.peoples whole system's thinking across the entirety of the

:14:40. > :14:44.electricity system. We agreed that they were asking the right questions

:14:45. > :14:50.and that is imperative that the electricity system is looked at as a

:14:51. > :14:55.entirety in order to allow effective engineering integration across the

:14:56. > :14:58.electricity system changes occur. The major players involved in

:14:59. > :15:03.maintaining with the head of the Government, National Grid, Ofgem,

:15:04. > :15:08.electricity generators and the distribution network operators, the

:15:09. > :15:14.Aichi in supplementary evidence said that while there was wide industry

:15:15. > :15:19.consensus on the need to introduce effective systems, there was

:15:20. > :15:23.continued debate on the role of Government and industry

:15:24. > :15:26.self-regulation in delivering this. The network companies, for example,

:15:27. > :15:29.would be concerned over the possibility of close Government

:15:30. > :15:36.engagement in aspects of the business that requires specialist

:15:37. > :15:39.technical knowledge and experience. Given its policy objectives, the

:15:40. > :15:44.Government has had little choice but to play a greater role in managing

:15:45. > :15:49.the electricity system. We therefore endorse the Government's adoption of

:15:50. > :15:54.a marriage market and stressed it is explicitly for the Secretary of

:15:55. > :15:56.State to provide leadership and clarity on responsibilities. The

:15:57. > :16:03.Department of edge are climate change have asked the energy systems

:16:04. > :16:06.catapult to investigate the can set -- the concept further and provide

:16:07. > :16:10.evidence of what functions would need to be performed in the future

:16:11. > :16:16.power system as a result of transformative change. And by when.

:16:17. > :16:21.This is a helpful response was to the sooner this exercise can be

:16:22. > :16:26.undertaken, the better. Can the Minister tell the house when he

:16:27. > :16:29.expects the report and also what might be its role thereafter in the

:16:30. > :16:34.fact that in this respect is that fact that in this respect is that

:16:35. > :16:38.many believe we should head was a system of small-scale decentralised

:16:39. > :16:47.power generation with an integrated grid based on flexibility.

:16:48. > :17:11.New nuclear power plant have the potential to provide greater

:17:12. > :17:17.flexibility. The process of electricity users adjusting their

:17:18. > :17:22.electricity that they use in response to incentives and we Herod

:17:23. > :17:25.that well there is potential, that well there is potential,

:17:26. > :17:31.current policies don't set it on an equal footing for generations and

:17:32. > :17:32.potential. We recommend the potential. We recommend the

:17:33. > :17:35.for the public sector to implement for the public sector to implement

:17:36. > :17:37.others. Technologies such as others. Technologies such as

:17:38. > :17:42.electricity storage, interconnection, carbon capture

:17:43. > :17:49.storage and demand side management will be the key to a resilient

:17:50. > :17:53.electricity system. I said it is incumbent on heat administration to

:17:54. > :18:00.formulate a clearly understood electricity polity which result in a

:18:01. > :18:12.balance between security of supply, sustainability and affordability.

:18:13. > :18:15.Investors in big projects after 2020 or indeed any investor need to

:18:16. > :18:19.understand what policies will be in place and need to have confidence

:18:20. > :18:22.that such policies will not be overturned by short-term

:18:23. > :18:28.considerations. We need to seek consensus on UK energy policy based

:18:29. > :18:36.around this and we need to achieve this consensus soon. My Lords, I bid

:18:37. > :18:46.to move. The question is, should this motion be agreed to. I think

:18:47. > :18:55.that's to my noble friend -- I congratulate. I congratulate them on

:18:56. > :18:59.this excellent report and chairing this inquiry with his characteristic

:19:00. > :19:07.I declare my interests as a small I declare my interests as a small

:19:08. > :19:13.shareholding in the National Grid. My first point is that our first

:19:14. > :19:18.report was if anything a little too sanguine and the closure of our

:19:19. > :19:30.plants since has left us more exposed. It makes the capacity

:19:31. > :19:33.margin even tighter this winter. As an Oxford professor called on

:19:34. > :19:36.inquiry, it is an extraordinary state of affairs for a major

:19:37. > :19:40.industrialised economy to find itself even debating whether there

:19:41. > :19:47.is a possibility that margins may not be sufficient in electricity to

:19:48. > :19:50.garden she supply. My second point is that the lights going out is a

:19:51. > :19:54.red herring. The National Grid has red herring. The National Grid has

:19:55. > :19:58.many weapons as its disposal to keep the lights on. That is a misleading

:19:59. > :20:04.point. The risk of system failure which is always present can be kept

:20:05. > :20:08.within bounds but by bringing consumer funds into the sector. My

:20:09. > :20:12.third point is that rising costs are the correct index of policy success

:20:13. > :20:17.or failure and here I'm afraid the news is bad. Even leaving aside the

:20:18. > :20:21.emergency costs of bringing on diesel generators when the wind does

:20:22. > :20:26.not blow, we paying heavily to have a resilient electricity system

:20:27. > :20:30.because of what I would consider deliberate policy mistakes. The

:20:31. > :20:35.Office for Budget Responsibility has recently published data showing that

:20:36. > :20:41.the cost projected for the capacity mechanism mentioned will be ?1.3

:20:42. > :20:48.billion in 2020. That is about 10% of the total control framework costs

:20:49. > :20:52.in that year and it is not for new capacity but for existing capacity

:20:53. > :20:58.and remembered most of that is going to fossil fuel plants which we

:20:59. > :21:01.should not be subsidising at all, so why are we subsidising? Because we

:21:02. > :21:07.have destroyed all incentive to build new efficient dispatch of all

:21:08. > :21:10.generators by using the law to force unproductive, expensive renewables

:21:11. > :21:17.on the consumer. That's why nobody is building new combined cycle gas

:21:18. > :21:22.turbine plant unless they get subsidised. Those subsidies don't

:21:23. > :21:31.come from taxation, they are added to bills. If you subsidise high

:21:32. > :21:35.fixed costs, intermittent electricity generation, you will end

:21:36. > :21:38.up destroying the market and incentives to invest in the capacity

:21:39. > :21:42.to keep the lights on when the wind is not blowing and the sun is not

:21:43. > :21:50.shining. It is wholly predictable and holy and anticipated. Can my

:21:51. > :21:58.noble friend in replying assure us that the study currently being

:21:59. > :22:01.carried out into the whole system impact of electricity generation

:22:02. > :22:05.technologies will take this issue into account, how much wind has

:22:06. > :22:10.prevented new gas being built and at what cost? We have spent ?40 million

:22:11. > :22:13.so far subsidising renewable electricity. The cost is rising

:22:14. > :22:21.rapidly and will soon hit ?10 billion a year and stay that way for

:22:22. > :22:26.decades. We are getting a less reliable and intercity system, an

:22:27. > :22:29.increase in cost and no discernible cuts in CO2 emissions because of any

:22:30. > :22:44.for back-up and a failure for dastardly 's call -- for gas to

:22:45. > :22:50.replace coal. Interconnector is our good thing but in many ways

:22:51. > :22:53.irrelevant. The current ones from France and the Netherlands are

:22:54. > :22:59.running one way into the UK at near full capacity most of the time

:23:00. > :23:03.anyway so they are now use for Excel intercity in times of emergency.

:23:04. > :23:07.They are not much use in managing variability of large renewable

:23:08. > :23:10.fields because as John Constable of the renewable energy foundation

:23:11. > :23:18.pointed out, wind speeds are well correlated across Europe. A calm day

:23:19. > :23:25.he is usually a company in Germany. -- calm day. I looked up home at

:23:26. > :23:31.electricity was coming from this country and Germany this afternoon.

:23:32. > :23:35.1.4% in this country, less than 1% in Germany. These four points make

:23:36. > :23:40.it clear that instead of building windmills in the North Sea, whose

:23:41. > :23:44.electricity will cost three times the wholesale price, we should have

:23:45. > :23:48.been using cheap gas to phase out coal and we should have been putting

:23:49. > :23:56.more money into bringing down the price of nuclear power. But the

:23:57. > :24:00.professor called the Milliband policy was based on the assumption

:24:01. > :24:04.that fossil prices would go up. Instead they went down. In the

:24:05. > :24:06.spreadsheet released last year by the Department for energy and

:24:07. > :24:13.climate change, the cost of renewable subsidies for small and

:24:14. > :24:19.medium-sized businesses would add 77% to the electricity bills by

:24:20. > :24:26.2020. Even in high fossil fuel price scenarios, it is still plus 45%.

:24:27. > :24:29.Even if fossil fuel prices go sky high, the policies don't offer

:24:30. > :24:33.significant protection. Every part of the world is increasing gas

:24:34. > :24:43.consumption at the moment except for one, Europe. All the others, they

:24:44. > :24:50.are all increasing the use of gas often to displace coal as a response

:24:51. > :24:55.to the following praise of gas actually shield gas revolution.

:24:56. > :24:57.Europe is doing the opposite. The competition and market authorities

:24:58. > :25:01.is reporting that the renewables target is more of a constraint than

:25:02. > :25:06.the current budget, that there are cheaper ways of meeting our carbon

:25:07. > :25:12.targets. My Lords, I fear we have the worst of both worlds, a system

:25:13. > :25:17.that has high finance costs of the private sector but when all

:25:18. > :25:22.decision-making is nationalised. A system that has all the costs of

:25:23. > :25:27.renewable energy for trivial remissions productions. A system

:25:28. > :25:31.that depends on subsidy for the cheapest, most liable power, a

:25:32. > :25:35.system whose high cost is driving employers abroad, the system with

:25:36. > :25:40.such low margins that cost will spike in the months ahead. So my

:25:41. > :25:50.Lords, I think there is a lot of work. I am not a member of the

:25:51. > :25:58.committee but I am pleased to take part on the subject. The Viscount's

:25:59. > :26:04.logic in terms of wind power and renewables not reducing carbon, he

:26:05. > :26:07.says that is because there has to be an implement a back-up but that

:26:08. > :26:13.logic does not work. You do not yet have that back-up but if it is not

:26:14. > :26:18.operating, it is not producing carbon, so I don't understand the

:26:19. > :26:24.logic. Under the existing machine, without renewables, the utilisation

:26:25. > :26:30.of generating capacity is about 50% on average and it is estimated by

:26:31. > :26:35.the National Grid that intermittency and renewables only becomes a real

:26:36. > :26:38.problem when there are about 20% of total generation Soya not sure all

:26:39. > :26:44.of that really adds up but I do agree with the Viscount that we

:26:45. > :26:50.should be taking out coal. I am glad he agrees with these benches on that

:26:51. > :26:55.and we should be getting on and substituting gas in the short-term

:26:56. > :27:03.as. Absolutely. He is absolutely right. But I just want to

:27:04. > :27:09.concentrate on a couple of things, what I think is an excellent report

:27:10. > :27:18.and has a number of excellent issues. What I like particularly as

:27:19. > :27:26.the space that it gives to the demands, the energy efficiency, a

:27:27. > :27:34.job security, it brings down Bill costs even if not necessarily the

:27:35. > :27:41.unit price and it decarbonises the economy. It has been a frustration

:27:42. > :27:45.of all Governments voter turnout benefit, how to do it without

:27:46. > :27:49.causing all sorts of very large and unaffordable public expenditure to

:27:50. > :27:59.make that leap. Unfortunately, the greener deal was not basic Cecil --

:28:00. > :28:03.very successful. Some seem to have disappeared altogether rather than

:28:04. > :28:07.being improved, which is what was needed, but hopefully there is some

:28:08. > :28:11.way we can move forward in that area. The other part of the demand

:28:12. > :28:17.as well as demand reduction, which is key and which the UK economy has

:28:18. > :28:23.been quite good at actually over recent years, I thinking freezing

:28:24. > :28:27.energy efficiency by some 2% or 3% per annum, is demand side management

:28:28. > :28:31.and again this report tackles that subject which has been very

:28:32. > :28:35.unfashionable, often forgotten about and is only really starting to be

:28:36. > :28:41.considered. The report mentioned specifically in that contest

:28:42. > :28:46.capacity. It is particularly important because what has

:28:47. > :28:48.effectively happened is that the aggregation of demand side

:28:49. > :28:57.management, which should be competing with the generation under

:28:58. > :29:01.the capacity claimant who is really being discriminated against in a way

:29:02. > :29:07.that it is done. What I remember from the coalition Government

:29:08. > :29:11.years, there were all sorts of legal and difficult issues to get the two

:29:12. > :29:16.to compete properly. I don't know but it certainly seems to me it

:29:17. > :29:20.should be a priority of Government to make sure demand side aggregation

:29:21. > :29:31.management plays an equal part in the capacity mechanism. The noble

:29:32. > :29:36.Errol is right in saying the capacity has gotten fossil fuels,

:29:37. > :29:40.which is unfortunate and existing but demand side management

:29:41. > :29:50.aggregation would absolutely make sure that we don't solve it by

:29:51. > :29:56.taking out peaks. The other area I want to mention is interconnector

:29:57. > :30:02.is. This is an important part and an area that has been relatively asleep

:30:03. > :30:07.over the last few years. The deck got involved in the last couple of

:30:08. > :30:14.years and we now have connectors with Ireland, the Midlands and

:30:15. > :30:18.France and we have opportunities for geothermal coming in from Iceland, I

:30:19. > :30:24.think that is a big ask but I know that we have a memorandum of

:30:25. > :30:27.understanding and talking to the Icelandic Government. I would like

:30:28. > :30:35.to hear from the minister were interconnector policy is now going.

:30:36. > :30:40.It seems to me something that we can have as an export potential as well

:30:41. > :30:45.and it is something that we should very much welcome. Lastly, the only

:30:46. > :30:52.other point I really want to make on this excellent report is that of

:30:53. > :30:58.storage. As renewables go Andy intermittency does become a problem,

:30:59. > :31:03.energy storage will be part of that solution. There seems to be a

:31:04. > :31:12.frustratingly slow evolution of efficiency of energy storage and

:31:13. > :31:17.capacity in terms of what and that side of energy storage, Tesla

:31:18. > :31:20.Corporation seems to be making good progress in the commercial feels but

:31:21. > :31:25.I would be interested to hear from the Minister what investment in

:31:26. > :31:28.terms of research and development Government is stimulating at the

:31:29. > :31:35.present moment in something is clearly a worldwide demand,

:31:36. > :31:45.especially in the UK. I commend this report fully and I look forward to

:31:46. > :31:52.the minister's reply. I thank our chairman for his skill at guiding

:31:53. > :31:59.us. For some of us nonscientists, it is complicated. Among the gifts, we

:32:00. > :32:02.like to think we possess as a people, is a special cluster on

:32:03. > :32:08.which we played herself. Should you dig thinking, Horizon scanning and

:32:09. > :32:13.forward planning. The subject of the day I regret to say does not reflect

:32:14. > :32:17.this pleasing self image. When it comes to the divine spark of

:32:18. > :32:23.electricity, we all too often believe it'll be all right on the

:32:24. > :32:29.night. We are all right on the night nation. Our optimism is sometimes

:32:30. > :32:36.hindered by our belief that just over the horizon lies a scientific

:32:37. > :32:40.breakthrough that will lead to a bright, well lit futures that takes

:32:41. > :32:49.care of itself for generations while avoiding harming the planet.

:32:50. > :32:56.In January 1958, the science and energy journalists were invited to

:32:57. > :32:59.be briefed on Project Zita, the atomic energy authority's nuclear

:33:00. > :33:05.fusion experiment. The were infused and news on the -- news and fired at

:33:06. > :33:08.the national newspapers and straddled the group. The Prime

:33:09. > :33:14.Minister was not a common wealth that was on a common wealth for and

:33:15. > :33:19.when he reached New Zealand Prime Minister asked McMillan how is

:33:20. > :33:24.work. It testing question for a classical scholar. As the High

:33:25. > :33:26.Commissioner reported, the mixture McMillan said well, you just take

:33:27. > :33:32.sea water and turn it into power. He sea water and turn it into power. He

:33:33. > :33:38.paused for effect before acting, we are pretty good with sea water. We

:33:39. > :33:43.are still waiting for the promise of fusion to be fulfilled. Some experts

:33:44. > :33:47.think it might just be a new decade away, others reckon another 40

:33:48. > :33:52.years. What the rest of us can do is live in hope the shining hour can

:33:53. > :33:56.come this afternoon or this evening I would like to concentrate first

:33:57. > :33:59.upon the need for a consensual long-term strategy for the need for

:34:00. > :34:05.a consensual long-term strategy for that is to supply -- for electricity

:34:06. > :34:08.is apply as outlined. This will be said to the work of the new national

:34:09. > :34:12.infrastructure commission forward I have high books generally. Secondly

:34:13. > :34:15.I would like to dissipate briefly the array of threats we met be

:34:16. > :34:22.facing as an advanced society, ever more dependent on an uninterrupted

:34:23. > :34:26.supply of electricity. Certain thresholds country cannot afford to

:34:27. > :34:33.reach, let alone cross. Electricity supplies one of them. As the report

:34:34. > :34:39.notes, last winter the National Grid protrude extra capacity to raise the

:34:40. > :34:44.capacity margins from 4.1% to 6.1% to guard against potential sorted

:34:45. > :34:47.result like the city is no shortages of electricity per that they

:34:48. > :34:52.stressed it was later concerned that this capacity what that was pretty

:34:53. > :34:57.boys at short notice at reasonable cost in a way that conflicts with

:34:58. > :35:01.the decarbonisation agenda for the novel example for an advanced

:35:02. > :35:07.economy, hugely dependent on electricity, the sale so close to

:35:08. > :35:10.the wind. The committee noted, as Lord Selbourne has emphasised, that

:35:11. > :35:16.but for the economic slowdown that followed the financial collapse --

:35:17. > :35:21.crash of 2008, capacity margins would have been much tighter. It is

:35:22. > :35:24.a mystery to me why this question has lacked the bite it deserves in

:35:25. > :35:27.the Cabinet and across Cabinet committee rooms over several

:35:28. > :35:34.governments. In political terms, there are few surer, more swifter

:35:35. > :35:39.zappers of public confidence in a Government than serious

:35:40. > :35:46.interruptions to electricity supply. The 1970s winter of discontent

:35:47. > :35:50.remember all too vividly. Security of power supply is a first order

:35:51. > :35:54.element in the defence of the realm. Given are justified anxieties

:35:55. > :36:00.about the nature and scope of future cyber attacks, it will rise higher

:36:01. > :36:05.still up the hierarchy in the risk register. Already we are facing

:36:06. > :36:10.between 150 and 200 serious cyber attacks on Government business every

:36:11. > :36:15.month. Those wishing as a serious harm in the future, serious and

:36:16. > :36:20.widespread and swift harm, will go for the electricity grid first.

:36:21. > :36:24.Error ever greater reliance and on the coming internet of things will

:36:25. > :36:28.no doubt bring great and community economic, improve personal

:36:29. > :36:34.consumption and comfort, but the risks will rise as well. I am a

:36:35. > :36:37.natural consent list, but not indiscriminate, I hope. I am

:36:38. > :36:40.convinced that a sure and save electricity supply is an area where

:36:41. > :36:46.consensus is justifiable and desirable. I all means, let's have

:36:47. > :36:49.the arguments about the ingredients of our energy mix and inspected

:36:50. > :36:54.rules of the seat and private suppliers but the evidence presented

:36:55. > :36:57.during the inquiry demonstrated a new universal belief that

:36:58. > :37:03.electricity supply is and must remain a marriage market in the UK.

:37:04. > :37:09.Muddling through however smart is not enough. The problem today

:37:10. > :37:13.requires and injuring national effort ranging from sustained

:37:14. > :37:20.political attention to large-scale investment, energetic or in Steve on

:37:21. > :37:25.the possibilities of electricity storage and interconnectivity with

:37:26. > :37:28.our neighbours and as many cyber are scientists and technologists can

:37:29. > :37:33.provide. Short of a devastating solo event, which we did consider for

:37:34. > :37:37.reasons of completeness, I am sure, about which we could do little,

:37:38. > :37:43.remedies are very much in our old hands. Let us seize them. And avoid

:37:44. > :37:48.our becoming an outage Society for the free do go into the dock in

:37:49. > :37:55.future, our people will be unforgiving and they will be right

:37:56. > :37:59.to be so. Can I apologise. I think I referred to the noble Earl when I

:38:00. > :38:02.meant the noble Viscount, Viscount Ridley, when I addressed the house

:38:03. > :38:13.and I apologise for getting my title is wrong. My Lords, along with many

:38:14. > :38:18.others, I warmly welcome this report on its principal recommendations. It

:38:19. > :38:21.seems to me a clear and timely as the issues it highlights for the UK

:38:22. > :38:27.in the medium are very significant. I particularly welcome recognition

:38:28. > :38:34.that the electricity market is now a managed market. I underlined the

:38:35. > :38:39.statement in paragraphs -- 37 advancing security of supply,

:38:40. > :38:43.sustainability affordability must be a forced order issue for the

:38:44. > :38:48.Secretary of State. The first order. I focused my own remarks in two

:38:49. > :38:53.specific areas. The first highlight the importance of the need of

:38:54. > :38:58.industry and manufacturing when looking at our future energy needs.

:38:59. > :39:04.It seems to me that this area is not addressed in sufficient depth in

:39:05. > :39:08.this otherwise excellent report. The future for costs of energy

:39:09. > :39:13.consumption are largely focused on the demands of domestic consumers

:39:14. > :39:17.for the report foxes on the rise and use of electric cars, heat pumps,

:39:18. > :39:21.the demand for more air-conditioning, and rightly so.

:39:22. > :39:26.But there is little, if anything, about the fusion -- searching the

:39:27. > :39:30.future energy needs in the manufacturing sector, which is so

:39:31. > :39:33.critical to a read as the economy, particularly in the northern

:39:34. > :39:39.England. -- IIe rebalance. You will be all too familiar with the crisis

:39:40. > :39:44.facing the British Steel industry. I made a visit in October to attack

:39:45. > :39:51.our speciality steels in Stockbridge near Sheffield. I saw first-hand the

:39:52. > :39:58.prices of rolling the immense bars of steel made from recycled scrap

:39:59. > :40:02.metal into 60 or 80 metre length bias for processing for the

:40:03. > :40:07.aerospace energy and car industries. The future supply and price of

:40:08. > :40:15.energy is vital to the future of the steel industry and of engineering in

:40:16. > :40:20.this country. In 1970 the industrial sector was responsible for 40% of

:40:21. > :40:28.the total final UK energy consumption. By 1990 this had fallen

:40:29. > :40:34.to 24% and by 2014 to 17%. But manufacturing remains a vital part

:40:35. > :40:37.of our economy, persuasively that makes competitively priced

:40:38. > :40:41.electricity is essential. Conservation national conversations

:40:42. > :40:49.during my visit folks to read future energy pricing and supply. The

:40:50. > :40:53.Scottish steel industry currently plays Salva Kiir pays much more

:40:54. > :40:57.great energy than its competitors in Germany and the rest of Europe. The

:40:58. > :41:03.playing field is not level. There's currently pays much more. Quoted in

:41:04. > :41:10.the Financial Times on the 27th of October, the cad said his company

:41:11. > :41:15.currently faces electricity bills of 68 euros per megawatt hour to run

:41:16. > :41:18.his steel plant in Cardiff. The similar operation in Germany would

:41:19. > :41:25.cost about 24 euros per megawatt hour. The Government has promised a

:41:26. > :41:28.full package of measures for energy intensive industry but only once it

:41:29. > :41:35.receives clearance from the European Union on state aid rules. I do not

:41:36. > :41:39.believe we can wait any longer to bring this vital help to our steel

:41:40. > :41:45.industry. We have already seen the closure or reduction of plants in

:41:46. > :41:48.Redcar and Scunthorpe, with the damage to communities and our

:41:49. > :41:53.industrial base as a consequence. I would urge the Government to act

:41:54. > :41:58.swiftly and bring forward this support in the Chancellor's Autumn

:41:59. > :42:03.Statement. The present and future pricing the electricity and a

:42:04. > :42:09.managed market is very different for domestic consumers and industry. Our

:42:10. > :42:15.industry is competing month by month for contracts in a global market. It

:42:16. > :42:21.is vital that manufacturing continues to grow again as part of

:42:22. > :42:27.our economy and our energy pricing must take account of the needs of

:42:28. > :42:33.industry in the leadership offered by the Secretary of State across the

:42:34. > :42:38.sector. A second area of focus is on the need for environmental reasons

:42:39. > :42:43.to decarbonise the electricity generation whilst keeping the lights

:42:44. > :42:49.on at an affordable price. The energy try level. The Government has

:42:50. > :42:51.made, I hope about to make, clear promises to the international

:42:52. > :42:56.community in the new global goals and the forthcoming climate change

:42:57. > :43:03.talks in Paris to reduce our carbon emissions significantly. A vital for

:43:04. > :43:06.the future of our planet and the poorest people on the earth. The

:43:07. > :43:13.committee for climate change has rightly recommended an ambitious

:43:14. > :43:17.target, a carbon intensity of power generation should be wooded from 500

:43:18. > :43:24.grams of CO2 per kilowatt hour to 50 grams of CO2 per kilowatt hour by

:43:25. > :43:27.2030. -- reduced. This is an enormous transformation in our

:43:28. > :43:33.energy market over the next 13 years. A very short time. I am

:43:34. > :43:38.warmly supportive of a Government strong manifesto commitments to

:43:39. > :43:42.roots and the impact of climate change and reducing the greenhouse

:43:43. > :43:47.gas emissions. There is much in this report that -- that supports that

:43:48. > :43:51.agenda and underlined the importance of honest, straightforward

:43:52. > :43:55.medication about the energy dilemma. It highlights the benefits

:43:56. > :43:59.of better long-range planning and information about the costs of

:44:00. > :44:03.energy shortfall. It recommends a rapid roll-out of smart meters and

:44:04. > :44:09.better information for Parliament and consumers. I would particularly

:44:10. > :44:15.highlight, as others have done, the key recommendation in paragraph two

:44:16. > :44:20.for four on page 87 of the report. We recommend that the Government

:44:21. > :44:25.publishes a systematic review of the evidence available on the predicted

:44:26. > :44:29.costs of integration to 2013 and beyond, taking into account a wide

:44:30. > :44:36.range of scenarios. This seems to be a plea for a much more detailed and

:44:37. > :44:40.transparent long-term energy budget. I would encourage the managers --

:44:41. > :44:43.the Minister to respond to this recommendation in particular in his

:44:44. > :44:48.response to this debate. Managing the feature of -- the future of our

:44:49. > :44:52.energy supply is vital for our quality of life, industry and our

:44:53. > :44:55.economy and the future ecology of our world. I warmly welcome this

:44:56. > :45:09.report. Because you remind us as we should

:45:10. > :45:18.not need reminding that this industry is entirely about serving

:45:19. > :45:23.individual people. We and the mac and unread since the bunch so the

:45:24. > :45:27.effects of decisions we can influence can be very profound for

:45:28. > :45:33.people across the country. My wish this evening is to talk about

:45:34. > :45:38.something that we did not get into in this particular debate. We heard

:45:39. > :45:43.that we were able to get away with that we were able to get away with

:45:44. > :45:51.the low production margins of electricity because the system was

:45:52. > :45:55.very diverse, very complex and in fact, if there was a breakdown, it

:45:56. > :46:01.was only going to affect a small part of it. And that meant that the

:46:02. > :46:07.resilience was there because the small part that broke down was not

:46:08. > :46:10.the same as if, let's say, Hinkley point, the new power station, where

:46:11. > :46:15.the breakdown, because that would knock out a very large chunk of

:46:16. > :46:23.generating capacity of the screen in one go. My lords, one thing that we

:46:24. > :46:27.did not talk about, because it would not have been particularly helpful,

:46:28. > :46:34.is the amount of heat that the entirety of the electricity

:46:35. > :46:39.generating industry creates. It is a remarkable thing, that not least of

:46:40. > :46:47.the vital factors in running a major generating firm, is how you call the

:46:48. > :46:55.mac cool it down. We supply energy all over the country to industry,

:46:56. > :47:02.commerce and private homes. A large portion of that electricity will be

:47:03. > :47:10.used to produce heat. Somehow we have to escape from the historic

:47:11. > :47:15.trap that were written -- that we are in and because of the planning

:47:16. > :47:19.system and particularly the old coal-fired generating stations were

:47:20. > :47:25.pretty dirty places because they caused a great deal of atmospheric

:47:26. > :47:27.pollution and could affect local communities, so quite rightly, the

:47:28. > :47:46.generating part was far away from We now can escape from that and I

:47:47. > :47:52.think we need to look at the whole planning system so that we can bring

:47:53. > :48:00.a generating capacity to the very fringe of the communities they

:48:01. > :48:06.serve. I hope somebody is not going to be too surprised at this, but we

:48:07. > :48:20.used to have a wonderful generating station in Battersea. Part of the

:48:21. > :48:24.solution was the heat. It affected Battersea and Chelsea. We could

:48:25. > :48:37.reduce the overall electricity demand quite considerably if we

:48:38. > :48:43.simply begin to put power generation in the areas of industrial sites and

:48:44. > :48:56.so there is a policy implication here. I have no concern about the

:48:57. > :49:08.health implications of the Hinkley Point generator: Some people might

:49:09. > :49:14.have, but my view is that we actually have a large and very vital

:49:15. > :49:24.part of our Navy is totally nuclear powered. We have men who live

:49:25. > :49:30.without any ill effect in a totally enclosed environment next to a

:49:31. > :49:38.nuclear reactor and so I do not think we have a health issue. If in

:49:39. > :49:43.fact we stuck to bring places like Hinkley Point to the fringe of

:49:44. > :49:52.London or to Battersea Power Station, too late, we would diminish

:49:53. > :50:00.the pressure for increased electricity generation if this were

:50:01. > :50:09.to happen. It is something we were not looking at because we were

:50:10. > :50:15.looking at the way we're doing things now. I hope the noble Lord

:50:16. > :50:23.will acknowledge that there are policy aspects of this issue that do

:50:24. > :50:30.need radical reconsideration because I hope that by the time my grandson

:50:31. > :50:35.'s are my age, we will have a much more effective system and it would

:50:36. > :50:40.be looking and saying, why did my grandparents and his generation who

:50:41. > :50:53.knew there was a problem do something about it? I have interests

:50:54. > :51:06.in the electricity industry but can I congratulate the noble earl. We

:51:07. > :51:14.service colleagues for many years and I was delighted when he assumes

:51:15. > :51:22.the chair and he has already proven himself in the production of the

:51:23. > :51:30.report itself. I don't think we anticipated BB be -- we would be

:51:31. > :51:36.debating this matter at this time of the deer because there is usually a

:51:37. > :51:39.meteorological forecasting the coldest winter in living memory and

:51:40. > :51:48.concluding we were all doomed to months of freezing darkness. I

:51:49. > :51:51.wouldn't want to adopt that kind of view for the prospect for the next

:51:52. > :52:02.few months. I think cautious optimism has called for four 2015

:52:03. > :52:14.and 2016. The National Grid has forecast a loss of 1.5% which will

:52:15. > :52:20.be met by some two percent of additional balancing services. I

:52:21. > :52:23.could explain it all in simple terms but I won't trouble the House this

:52:24. > :52:28.evening by going into great detail on it. Suffice to say a major

:52:29. > :52:37.element on this will be the demand side management, which when we were

:52:38. > :52:48.taking the airport, we were told we could be confident that 2015, 2016,

:52:49. > :52:53.the lights would go out. We have a reasonable track record in this area

:52:54. > :52:59.but the question remains, what of subsequent winters? Margins are

:53:00. > :53:04.getting narrower and we should have dealt with the anticipated problem

:53:05. > :53:13.earlier. It is easy to see that. I have been participating in debates

:53:14. > :53:16.here on the other place for nearly 40 years and I have always heard

:53:17. > :53:22.people say we must have a long-term strategy and the long-term

:53:23. > :53:29.strategy, I mean, I came to Westminster in the 1970s when like

:53:30. > :53:35.the welfare state, the coal industry was something we took pride in and

:53:36. > :53:47.within about five years, the coal industry was to be destroyed and we

:53:48. > :53:52.were embracing, in 1989, we embraced gas because we could start burning

:53:53. > :54:01.the gas in the North Sea to keep our house is warm. The was a major

:54:02. > :54:08.change in European policy and we embraced a gas fire stations and

:54:09. > :54:12.then we got nuclear. Then we discovered it might be a bit

:54:13. > :54:21.dangerous because we didn't know when gas was always going to come

:54:22. > :54:26.from. The enthusiasm for gas this afternoon suggests he has forgotten

:54:27. > :54:30.where a lot of the gas we depend on comes from and whether or not we

:54:31. > :54:39.would want to be overdependent on some of those supplies. Nuclear was

:54:40. > :54:42.out, gas was going to be the answer, then people began to wake up

:54:43. > :54:46.to the fact that they were going to be shutting down nuclear power

:54:47. > :54:54.stations which in those days accounted for about 25% of our

:54:55. > :54:58.power. Even if we kept just the few coal fire power stations and then

:54:59. > :55:02.the gas that European diktats were going to require us to start closing

:55:03. > :55:09.them down as well. I'm very cautious when people tell us that what we

:55:10. > :55:12.need is a long-term strategy because usually most long-term strategies

:55:13. > :55:17.lost about seven or eight years maximum but at the same time I would

:55:18. > :55:20.make the point that if we are investing in a nuclear power, we are

:55:21. > :55:25.investing in energy which is very expensive at the beginning and which

:55:26. > :55:33.has a very long life and it is therefore possible for you to pay it

:55:34. > :55:37.back over time but it is nevertheless a major expense and we

:55:38. > :55:44.know at the moment that it's one which is very difficult to attract

:55:45. > :55:55.investors to. The point we have been the king at is that -- looking at is

:55:56. > :55:57.that we have been the king at the closure of power stations and

:55:58. > :56:09.introduction incapacity to quickly replace them and at the same time

:56:10. > :56:16.having a dependence on renewables, dependencies on plans which are too

:56:17. > :56:18.small and can be interrupted, and it is therefore the case that where we

:56:19. > :56:28.can look forward with some confidence to Hinkley but it is not

:56:29. > :56:32.quite in the fusion category yet but it is taking longer than we had

:56:33. > :56:37.anticipated. It wasn't that many years ago and we thought we made

:56:38. > :56:47.have seen the Christmas turkeys of 2017, 2018 being roasted with

:56:48. > :56:53.nuclear generated electricity. I think if we're talking in terms of

:56:54. > :56:56.2027, we might be more realistic. The French record of building

:56:57. > :57:03.nuclear power stations is none too encouraging although one would hope

:57:04. > :57:07.that having had to test runs in Finland and France that we might be

:57:08. > :57:13.able to make a better job of Hinkley then we have done hitherto. The

:57:14. > :57:20.electricity that will come from Hinkley will not be cheap because we

:57:21. > :57:23.are in the unfortunate position of having the most expensive kit, the

:57:24. > :57:32.one that takes longest and is most difficult to build deconstructed in

:57:33. > :57:36.the UK. Some say we might see new players coming from other sources as

:57:37. > :57:46.quickly as from Hinkley, but that's another issue. I think when we see

:57:47. > :57:53.the issue of self-imposed demand management, this is seen by National

:57:54. > :57:57.Grid as important and they will be sure that for the foreseeable future

:57:58. > :58:03.there will be no enforced blackouts but this will add to be achieved by

:58:04. > :58:08.merging electricity markets which are in the process of being reformed

:58:09. > :58:13.and the committee expressed concern about quality of information on

:58:14. > :58:21.which many judgments are being made, particularly the

:58:22. > :58:25.appropriateness of the -- the reliability. We know the Government

:58:26. > :58:30.is required by law to monitor this every five years. I think we would

:58:31. > :58:32.be well advised to produce annual reports and not just have in the

:58:33. > :58:41.last nine months before the end of the five years a dash to get the

:58:42. > :58:46.information in place. The thing is that as has already been said, it is

:58:47. > :58:55.not all indigenous generated power because we have got into a

:58:56. > :58:58.connection -- interconnection and the information we received an

:58:59. > :59:03.back-up generation and interconnection was somewhat less

:59:04. > :59:05.than satisfactory and they would be interested to here from the minister

:59:06. > :59:12.whether or not that information has been updated. Certainly, I think we

:59:13. > :59:16.would want reassurance that the scaremongering which often provides

:59:17. > :59:24.the headlines and pools the space between the adverts or on social

:59:25. > :59:27.media which feeds the paranoia of the basic conspiracy theorists that

:59:28. > :59:36.we need to have better information to dampen these anxieties at

:59:37. > :59:41.source. It is fair to say that we were impressed by the awareness of

:59:42. > :59:50.the appropriate authorities to the dangers of cyber attacks on the

:59:51. > :59:59.system and terrorist threats. There was a reassuring absence of

:00:00. > :00:06.complacency in these individuals. They seemed to certainly anticipate

:00:07. > :00:09.what the bad guys would be trying to do and in that sense, we have some

:00:10. > :00:15.degree of consolation but nevertheless, there is a requirement

:00:16. > :00:20.for eternal vigilance in these areas as in so many others but I think

:00:21. > :00:27.that we underestimate the dangers of cyber and other attacks on our

:00:28. > :00:41.system. We also... I think we have to be cautious of better integrated

:00:42. > :00:46.grids, all kind of possible technicalities, storage, batteries,

:00:47. > :00:50.smart meters, electrical vehicles, the electricity of the transport

:00:51. > :00:55.system. All these things will come at a cost. Many are still immature

:00:56. > :01:02.technologies and cannot really be depended upon with any degree of

:01:03. > :01:07.certainty. We had to strike a somewhat cautious note but I'd like

:01:08. > :01:11.to think that the caution that the Government has responded to many of

:01:12. > :01:16.our points with is a bit frustrating for select committees when the

:01:17. > :01:21.report is produced, we have what we think is the most up-to-date

:01:22. > :01:25.information and we get cautious responses. I draw some consolation

:01:26. > :01:29.from my experience in select committees which goes back quite a

:01:30. > :01:34.while and I are reminded of George Bernard Shaw who said of his father

:01:35. > :01:38.that he was convinced he was one of the most ignorant men he had ever

:01:39. > :01:43.met and yet by the time he was 21 he was surprised how much his father

:01:44. > :01:49.had learned. Very often we find that in a very short time, before the

:01:50. > :01:52.dust had settled on select committee recommendations that the civil

:01:53. > :01:57.servants, the Government machine and even the ministers change their June

:01:58. > :02:01.and I think it would be unfortunate if this were not to happen now

:02:02. > :02:07.because this excellent report will only be ignorable for so long and

:02:08. > :02:15.any later than that, it will be the peril of a economy.

:02:16. > :02:22.he says he is concerned about where the gas will come from. Actually, we

:02:23. > :02:26.are more dependent on imported coal and on imported gas. Over 85% of our

:02:27. > :02:32.call is currently coming from abroad, 40% from Russia. I'm not

:02:33. > :02:35.sure if I'm supposed to respond to that question. The point I'm making

:02:36. > :02:44.is that you are a number of uncertain sources of gas and I think

:02:45. > :02:50.that we would all agree that the nature of our dependence on coal is

:02:51. > :02:55.essentially temporary in character and I think that the long-term

:02:56. > :03:03.requirements of a section of our fossil fuels will be gas and it will

:03:04. > :03:10.still be coming from areas which will be unpredictable politically

:03:11. > :03:16.and socially, to say the least. This was a rigorous inquiry, cheered with

:03:17. > :03:22.consummate skill by the Earl of Selborne and supported with detailed

:03:23. > :03:26.expertise by Professor Jim Watson, a highly for press -- professional

:03:27. > :03:30.causation by the committee staff led by Chris Clark. I joined others in

:03:31. > :03:34.congratulating them all. I declare my interest as a fellow of the world

:03:35. > :03:38.Society of the world Academy of engineering and the National

:03:39. > :03:43.academies of engineering of the US, China and are still here, where I

:03:44. > :03:47.have also discussed energy. I'm only going to discuss the committee's

:03:48. > :03:50.recommendation that the Government should ensure that incentives are in

:03:51. > :03:58.place so that all New Generation is built in such a way as to maximise

:03:59. > :04:05.its flexibility whilst ensuring the costs insurers are minimised. The

:04:06. > :04:08.emphasis on flexibility, but it is really about costs. I will briefly

:04:09. > :04:13.discussed recommendation that the Government should disseminate

:04:14. > :04:15.welcome friends of evidence from the potential costs of low-carbon

:04:16. > :04:20.generation and improve during occasion with the public. --

:04:21. > :04:24.communication. There has been significant progress over the past

:04:25. > :04:29.two years in telling people what is happening despite what Lord O'Neill

:04:30. > :04:35.has just said. We have been in a worse situation. We now have the

:04:36. > :04:38.full set of strike prices, including that for nuclear power and it is

:04:39. > :04:43.becoming possible to evaluate the various scenarios open to the

:04:44. > :04:47.country. This is a welcome change from the time when it seemed that no

:04:48. > :04:54.one knew what was possible or even what was happening. For example, I

:04:55. > :04:58.recall a Government in late 2009 in assisting -- insisting we would have

:04:59. > :05:02.eight gigawatts of offshore in the back -- wind capacity in the North

:05:03. > :05:06.Sea by 2011. That was clearly impossible and revealed a total lack

:05:07. > :05:12.of understanding of the challenges of that technology. I experienced

:05:13. > :05:15.the new openness in a letter from the noble Lord born in answer to a

:05:16. > :05:21.supplementary question I asked earlier this year. I thank the noble

:05:22. > :05:25.Lord and Minister for his letter and apologise for being so late in doing

:05:26. > :05:30.so. I had asked whether the capacity is your preferred to various

:05:31. > :05:35.renewables with the gross capacities or the power actually delivered to

:05:36. > :05:39.the great. He pointed out in his letter that they were the latter and

:05:40. > :05:47.that the factors used for sure wind and solar water 24 to 32% and 9-11%

:05:48. > :05:54.respectively. A welcome recognition of reality. Solar PV yields one

:05:55. > :05:59.tenth of what it says on the label. It is clear that we are getting to

:06:00. > :06:04.grips with the complex and difficult energy dilemma. 5 years after we

:06:05. > :06:08.were told we would have eight gigawatts of offshore wind in the

:06:09. > :06:11.North Sea we are at least approaching four gigawatts and state

:06:12. > :06:16.is being just that tells us estimate the real costs of offshore wind,

:06:17. > :06:21.although it will be a long time before we can assess the maintenance

:06:22. > :06:27.costs of these huge machines in the hostile environment of the North

:06:28. > :06:34.Sea. There is also some action, rather than endless talking, on new

:06:35. > :06:38.nuclear. Even if it regrettably, we will not build it ourselves, but put

:06:39. > :06:43.it in the hands of the front and the Chinese. Overall, we now have enough

:06:44. > :06:47.data to assess quantitatively different combinations of power

:06:48. > :06:54.generation type. Some of these have been laid out in the electricity

:06:55. > :06:58.market reform delivery plan. What becomes clear, however, is that

:06:59. > :07:01.renewable energy generation is extremely expensive. The strike

:07:02. > :07:06.price for offshore wind, for example, has been set at more than

:07:07. > :07:15.three times the cost of electricity today, that is 155 kilowatt compares

:07:16. > :07:21.to 55 and is -- compared to ?50 per kilowatt hour of fossil fuel. The

:07:22. > :07:26.reference price. It is also more than 50% higher than the ?92 per

:07:27. > :07:33.kilowatt hour predicted for nuclear interim T203. -- in 2023. Offshore

:07:34. > :07:40.winds provides about one third of the power shown in the delivery

:07:41. > :07:44.plan, it will require the taxpayer to pay eight subsidy amount at two

:07:45. > :07:46.thirds of the present class B D. That is twice the reference price

:07:47. > :07:54.for about one third of the power generated. -- of the present

:07:55. > :07:57.electricity. The high deployment of nuclear option would seem to provide

:07:58. > :08:04.the lows cost from meeting our carbon targets, especially as

:08:05. > :08:06.nuclear, delete -- as nuclear can be used to back-up the intermittent

:08:07. > :08:09.renewables as well as British and little cotton, but this cost would

:08:10. > :08:15.be much higher than the cost of electricity today. The high

:08:16. > :08:18.deployment option might diverge as attractive in the future, but there

:08:19. > :08:25.is too little evidence available at this time to evaluate. Hope is that

:08:26. > :08:28.large cost reductions will be realised as the renewable methods

:08:29. > :08:32.ask ale top but this is anything but certain. It is also argued that

:08:33. > :08:37.energy bills are already coming down and this trend can be continued.

:08:38. > :08:43.That the reductions we have seen recently have nothing to do with

:08:44. > :08:46.progress with low-carbon generation. They have resulted from other

:08:47. > :08:49.factors, and I will mention some. First, significant reductions in the

:08:50. > :08:58.cost of fossil fuels. Data shows that between the second quarter of

:08:59. > :09:04.2013 and 2015, energy suppliers page 20% less for gap -- for natural gas,

:09:05. > :09:14.20% less per call and 40% less for oil. The noble Viscount Benj and

:09:15. > :09:18.some of this already. -- Viscount mentioned. There is also products

:09:19. > :09:21.policy. This is the adoption of European wide standards and energy

:09:22. > :09:26.labels that have been increasing efficiency of household appliances,

:09:27. > :09:29.it surely excellent initiative was that there is also the age of

:09:30. > :09:33.percent energy saving that results from the use of LEDs rather than

:09:34. > :09:36.incandescent bulbs and the increasing use of improved

:09:37. > :09:41.insulation, even if we are not as good at that as the rest of Europe

:09:42. > :09:47.and the ability better to monitor usage through the use of smart

:09:48. > :09:50.meters. Realising these games is very good news. However, they are

:09:51. > :09:55.likely to be overwhelmed and the vast increases in renewable

:09:56. > :10:00.generation costs and the taxpayer will have to bear the burden imposed

:10:01. > :10:04.upon them. The strike prices are higher than the reference price. It

:10:05. > :10:09.is essential we continually monitor progress across the spectrum of

:10:10. > :10:14.low-carbon energy generation and adjusting mixed to minimise costs.

:10:15. > :10:19.Of course also while meeting our carbon targets. At present, the

:10:20. > :10:22.geezers suggests that this will mean maximising the use of nuclear power

:10:23. > :10:26.despite its higher cost. I impress upon the Minister the need for the

:10:27. > :10:35.Government to press on with nuclear and I include small-scale modular

:10:36. > :10:41.reactors, just as the Earl of Selborne mentioned. Before

:10:42. > :10:46.finishing, I would like with others to emphasise the need to increase

:10:47. > :10:49.support for R and energy generation and as stated in chapter

:10:50. > :10:53.eight of the report, ensure that the objectives of the nuclear industrial

:10:54. > :11:01.strategy recommended by now wrap are met. -- recommended are met. I would

:11:02. > :11:06.like to look forward and join Lord Hennessy in saying a few words about

:11:07. > :11:12.fusion power. There has been and remains a lot of scepticism about

:11:13. > :11:17.fusion. But there has been recent progress in plasma fusion on three

:11:18. > :11:22.fronts. First, and the International thermonuclear experimental Reactor

:11:23. > :11:25.project in the South of France where a doughnut shaped reactor the sound

:11:26. > :11:29.-- the size of the artistry of us being built with the aim of

:11:30. > :11:35.producing the megawatt of output sometime in the late 1920s. There

:11:36. > :11:38.have been delays in management problems, but in September and

:11:39. > :11:43.important milestone was achieved call on the billion-dollar contract

:11:44. > :11:47.was placed to deliver the 200 kilometres of superconducting wires

:11:48. > :11:52.that would produce the magnetic field used to compress and finally

:11:53. > :11:57.plasma and reach the temperature of ten times that of the Sun needed to

:11:58. > :12:03.produce fusion. Second, here at column and at Princeton in the USA

:12:04. > :12:08.to new things are being that the exploit a new John Terry of a fusion

:12:09. > :12:11.chamber. These are known as spherical Tucker Max where the

:12:12. > :12:16.reactor chamber is not a doughnut, but spherical. More like a chord

:12:17. > :12:21.with a single conductor down the middle. The Georgia has been shown

:12:22. > :12:24.to be three times more effective in harnessing the magnetic field. --

:12:25. > :12:34.the geometry does that there are those like to make smaller reactors

:12:35. > :12:46.feasible. Listening to his fascinating account of fusion, I am

:12:47. > :12:50.brought back to 34 years ago, when I was Secretary of State and all of my

:12:51. > :12:59.scientific advisers assured me that fusion would be economic within 25

:13:00. > :13:05.years at most. Is it not dangerous to engage in wishful thinking? I

:13:06. > :13:13.thank the noble Lord Lawson for that intervention. It is dangerous to be

:13:14. > :13:18.overly optimistic, and people have accused some of the people working

:13:19. > :13:24.on the new types of reactors of overoptimism. But the promise of

:13:25. > :13:32.fusion, as Lord Hennessy said earlier in this debate, are so great

:13:33. > :13:35.that I am not suggesting that we replace huge quantities of

:13:36. > :13:42.investment elsewhere on work on fusion, I'm just suggesting that we

:13:43. > :13:48.continue working on it because of the very great potential that it

:13:49. > :13:54.has. I think it would be criminal to continue to pursue, but it surely as

:13:55. > :13:59.we are making advances today. I am not suggesting at this stage that it

:14:00. > :14:04.will be tomorrow's answer, it has always been tomorrow's technology

:14:05. > :14:09.but sometime tomorrow's technologies come on the when we least expect it.

:14:10. > :14:15.I will end on that optimistic note. If we could harness fusion power, we

:14:16. > :14:20.would have a lot of our problems resolved. My Lords, I was not a

:14:21. > :14:26.member of this excellent committee and I declare an interest as adviser

:14:27. > :14:30.to Mitsubishi Electric. Like others, I totally agree that this is

:14:31. > :14:34.extremely valuable as a report and I would go further to say that it

:14:35. > :14:39.really costs a beam of light much-needed an area where we are

:14:40. > :14:42.not, in the past, we have not been told the fall -- the full facts or

:14:43. > :14:47.been explained what is rehabbing or what it will cost us. It is an

:14:48. > :14:55.excellent report. Really happening. Messages tells is quite an appalling

:14:56. > :15:00.one. That the reliability of power supplies should be even an issue in

:15:01. > :15:03.one of the world's leading industrial nations, the nation that

:15:04. > :15:12.founded the Industrial Revolution based on steam and power. That is

:15:13. > :15:17.really quite amazing and deplorable. And it makes one ponder just what

:15:18. > :15:19.had gone wrong, what has happened. This report helps enormously and we

:15:20. > :15:28.are beginning to answer that question. We are right about that in

:15:29. > :15:33.the short term and thanks largely to the immense skills of the National

:15:34. > :15:37.Grid, which is a brilliant company and various devices that I will come

:15:38. > :15:45.to deal with on both the supply side and demand side. In the next two or

:15:46. > :15:48.three years we will have adequate power even at the most difficult

:15:49. > :15:53.times unless something catastrophic happens. It is going to cost us

:15:54. > :16:04.something and will be expensive and I will come to that as well. That is

:16:05. > :16:08.an extra three years. Then the ages of the capacity margins in the

:16:09. > :16:28.future. Whether that is the full capacity margin or not, however you

:16:29. > :16:33.define it. It says the additional capacity brought forward by the

:16:34. > :16:37.market is 49 gigawatts. That is true, but it doesn't tell the

:16:38. > :16:45.story. The story is that in terms of new capacity, it brought forward the

:16:46. > :16:52.options so far of miserably little. 2.7 gigawatts, which consists only

:16:53. > :16:57.one single combined cycle gas turbine. Quite a big one and a lot

:16:58. > :17:02.of small capacity. Otherwise, 2.7 gigawatts. That is against the

:17:03. > :17:05.larger 49 figure. Subtitles will resume later.