:00:10. > :00:16.Hell, I'll welcome to inside out. We appear at Piccadilly rail
:00:16. > :00:26.station. A special programme about the future of transport in our
:00:26. > :00:31.region. Tonight: we investigate the safety of commuter trains.
:00:31. > :00:37.It will take an accident before something is done. There is no easy
:00:37. > :00:43.access to their Exits. And we ask if we have fallen out of
:00:43. > :00:47.love with cars. Cars have been the transport story
:00:47. > :00:57.of the last half century. But it might not be the transport story of
:00:57. > :01:08.
:01:08. > :01:13.If the experts are correct then more of us will leave our cars at
:01:13. > :01:18.home and turn to the train as a way of getting to work in the future.
:01:18. > :01:22.Sounds ideal, the perfect solution. But a survey has revealed that here
:01:22. > :01:30.in the north-west we are the most fed up rail commuters in the
:01:30. > :01:38.country. The investigation uncovered a disturbing issue,
:01:38. > :01:48.asking, just how safe are some of our trains?
:01:48. > :01:51.
:01:51. > :01:56.On this layout, rail travel is lots of fun. But in reality, this is the
:01:57. > :02:06.way that some people travel to and from work here in the north-west.
:02:07. > :02:08.
:02:08. > :02:13.Standing room only, jammed together, locking the aisles. A grim prospect.
:02:13. > :02:19.It is pretty much every day. Conditions are crowded. The train
:02:19. > :02:28.is often delayed also. That makes the situation worse.
:02:28. > :02:35.We need more carriages. Standing is the norm, every day.
:02:35. > :02:39.It is like sardines. If the train brakes suddenly, you go flying.
:02:39. > :02:42.People faint because they're too hot.
:02:42. > :02:52.Unlike buses, there is no legal limit on the number of people
:02:52. > :02:56.allowed to stand on a train. These images were taken by a passenger on
:02:56. > :03:01.the north and rail. It runs the biggest commuter train franchise in
:03:01. > :03:11.the region. Every day, thousands use its services. Predictions are
:03:11. > :03:16.correct, more will join them. But will leave him get on the train? --
:03:16. > :03:26.will they get on the train? This was Rochdale station on a tour bus
:03:26. > :03:29.
:03:29. > :03:36.16th. Paul White filmed the train. -- 16th October.
:03:36. > :03:42.It was just something I could do to show how bad the conditions where.
:03:43. > :03:48.It is so unsafe to have conditions like that. It will take an accident
:03:48. > :03:58.before something is done. There's just no way out of the train. You
:03:58. > :04:01.
:04:01. > :04:07.are squashed. There is no easy access to their exit.
:04:07. > :04:12.Northern rail took over the franchise in 2004. They are the
:04:12. > :04:19.largest train operator in the country. They cover 20% of all the
:04:19. > :04:24.United Kingdom's railway stations. But they also run some old stock.
:04:24. > :04:30.Part of the problem is that nobody predicted a huge uptake and that
:04:30. > :04:34.really used in this region. 40% more people use trains since 2004.
:04:34. > :04:43.Existing trains cannot cope and that is causing severe overcrowding
:04:43. > :04:49.every day. Some commuters have had been off. They are using social
:04:49. > :04:57.networks to reveal their experiences. Many put messages out
:04:57. > :05:01.under the head in Northern fail. Tiffany is our clinical scientist
:05:02. > :05:06.at a Manchester hospital. She is a regular commuter and uses her
:05:06. > :05:12.Facebook page to comment Bente -- on her travels from Wigan to
:05:12. > :05:17.Manchester. It is usually overcrowded. I do not look forward
:05:17. > :05:22.to it at the end of a long day. Particularly if you cannot get a
:05:22. > :05:28.seat. If the heating is on and it is overcrowded you can feel faint.
:05:28. > :05:31.There have been several occasions during the summer months when the
:05:31. > :05:37.train has been delayed because an ambulance has had to stop at a
:05:37. > :05:42.station to take somebody from the train who has collapsed. It get a
:05:42. > :05:46.particularly bad at Wigan. There are no seats available. That is
:05:46. > :05:52.when the overcrowding begins and it is particularly bad at then,
:05:52. > :06:02.through to Bolton. If I change train at Salford it is very
:06:02. > :06:04.
:06:04. > :06:06.difficult to get on the next one along. There is not a lot of room.
:06:06. > :06:11.There are multi- million pound plans to improve the service in the
:06:11. > :06:16.region. That includes the electrification of routes between
:06:16. > :06:21.Liverpool, Manchester, and Preston, and the construction of a new
:06:21. > :06:28.bridge linking routes in Manchester. But the completion of these is many
:06:28. > :06:32.years away. Most people we spoke to want action now.
:06:32. > :06:36.Most of the train companies do not own their rolling-stock. That is
:06:36. > :06:42.because of the way that the franchising system works. They have
:06:42. > :06:48.a franchise for, say, 10 years. The rolling stock has to last at least
:06:48. > :06:54.30, 40 years. So if they do not win the next franchise, what do they do
:06:54. > :06:58.with the rolling stock? So they actually won by leasing companies.
:06:58. > :07:02.There is no doubt we need new trains here in the region. But when
:07:02. > :07:06.the last set of rolling stock was dished out the majority went to the
:07:06. > :07:10.south-east. Can we be cynical and say that decisions were taken based
:07:10. > :07:16.on the Olympics? That would have happened without
:07:16. > :07:24.the Olympics. The South East has 90% of the trains, most of the rest
:07:24. > :07:30.went to Scotland. We got some cast off carriages from elsewhere. But
:07:30. > :07:35.apart from that we haven't had anything for ages. What has turned
:07:35. > :07:39.up have been 30-year-old trains from the Birmingham area. We want
:07:39. > :07:46.decent, fit for purpose trains. That will encourage people to use
:07:46. > :07:52.the railways more. If the trains are not fit for purpose -- our
:07:52. > :07:58.trains. We haven't brought in additional
:07:58. > :08:02.carriages to try and satisfy demand. -- we have brought in. Of course we
:08:02. > :08:06.do not like to see trains that are too busy but we're doing everything
:08:06. > :08:10.we can to resolve that. We're working with the Department of
:08:10. > :08:16.Transport as we approach the end of have a franchise to specify what
:08:16. > :08:19.the next franchise might look like. One interviewee told us that
:08:19. > :08:25.sometimes the trains are so crowded that people have collapsed and
:08:25. > :08:30.ambulances have been called. We understand we have very busy
:08:30. > :08:34.trains, particularly on peak commuter belts. We do everything we
:08:34. > :08:37.can to guarantee our passenger experience is as comfortable as it
:08:37. > :08:43.can be. But when we took a franchise it was envisaged that
:08:43. > :08:48.there would be no growth. Yet there are 40% more passengers. We carry
:08:48. > :08:53.90 million people, some trains are busy. We're trying to bring things
:08:53. > :09:01.back to a more acceptable situation. Historically wide as the north-west
:09:01. > :09:11.at a bad deal regards rolling stock compared with the south-east?
:09:11. > :09:13.
:09:13. > :09:18.Most of our journeys are short. There are affordability concerns.
:09:18. > :09:22.Overcrowding is not the only concern for commuters here in the
:09:22. > :09:26.north-west. Although rail travel has a mostly excellent safety
:09:26. > :09:35.record there is concern that one type of training is being used here
:09:35. > :09:41.longer than its intended design life. -- one type of train.
:09:41. > :09:47.The new version is something different...
:09:47. > :09:51.Here is the train making its debut journey to Manchester in 1985. A
:09:51. > :10:00.unique experiment welding a bus body and seating to a tree in
:10:00. > :10:05.chassis. -- train. It was designed for rural roots.
:10:05. > :10:13.The idea is that it will be cheap and replace old coaches Wellspring
:10:13. > :10:17.operations back into profit... But the class now makes up one-
:10:17. > :10:21.quarter of all modern rail's rolling stock. As you can see on
:10:21. > :10:26.the journey that I took recently, they are used at peak commuter
:10:26. > :10:33.times and often are overcrowded. They were never designed a intended
:10:33. > :10:40.to be used on such busy routes. Why are so many in operation here
:10:40. > :10:45.and in north-west? About 20% of our trains are, and
:10:45. > :10:49.the operating major conurbations. They were awarded as part of the
:10:49. > :10:57.contract and 2004. So that is the rolling stock that
:10:57. > :11:03.you were handed over? Yes. 600 carriages, about a quarter
:11:04. > :11:13.are the pacer trains. This is what happened to a pacer
:11:13. > :11:16.train in Chester in 1999. It was struck head-on by a virgin surface.
:11:16. > :11:22.It was operated by frost north- western and suffered substantially
:11:22. > :11:25.more damage than the other train. Following the crash safety experts
:11:25. > :11:32.raised serious doubts about the suitability of the train for a busy
:11:32. > :11:34.routes. Fortunately the train was empty at the time of the crash but
:11:34. > :11:38.an accident investigation into the crash worthiness of the trains
:11:38. > :11:44.concluded that the under frame chassis connection was grossly
:11:44. > :11:52.inadequate to withstand impact. A major design weakness.
:11:52. > :11:55.Modifications were recommended to be carried out. This professor from
:11:55. > :12:01.Bolton university is a leading expert in rail carriage crash
:12:01. > :12:07.wordiness. He has serious concerns about what would happen to a pacer
:12:07. > :12:12.if it crashed today for also stop the inside would displace quite a
:12:12. > :12:19.lot. We saw this in an accident with
:12:19. > :12:25.another vehicle. The displacement was about three metres. We should
:12:25. > :12:32.allow only one metre. It is a seriously excessive figure. It
:12:32. > :12:39.poses a danger to occupants. For what will happen is potentially
:12:39. > :12:44.severe injuries or even fatalities. People responsible for public
:12:44. > :12:54.safety on our railways are the Office of Rail Regulation. For the
:12:54. > :13:23.
:13:23. > :13:27.last few years they have warned The orders of regulation revealed
:13:27. > :13:31.that the trains do not fully meet current national standards for
:13:31. > :13:37.collision protection. But their safety had been approved by other
:13:37. > :13:41.rolling stock. If people are saying these trains
:13:41. > :13:45.were Commission now they would not be allowed to roll out on the track,
:13:45. > :13:49.I think that is essentially what we're saying, they are out there,
:13:49. > :13:55.unacceptable, they would not pass modern standards. So we simply
:13:55. > :14:00.should not take the risk of a fatal collision. Bear in mind that these
:14:00. > :14:04.units are orphan very, very overcrowded. People are standing.
:14:04. > :14:12.If you had a collision you would certainly have a very dramatic and
:14:12. > :14:16.Severe consequence is for. A only a week ago I met with John
:14:16. > :14:21.and described to him that all of our trains meet standards. They are
:14:21. > :14:27.readily maintained and surfaced. Many of their original moving parts
:14:27. > :14:30.have been replaced over the years. Are you not concerned that if they
:14:30. > :14:37.were involved and collision that you have rolling stock which is
:14:37. > :14:40.well past its sell-by date? You would be responsible for that.
:14:40. > :14:45.We maintain the highest of standards. It is a difficult pass
:14:45. > :14:49.to replace all these trains. As an operator we keep the trains running
:14:49. > :14:58.as best as we can, maintaining them to the highest standards and to
:14:58. > :15:00.meet the standards laid down by the Office of Rail Regulation.
:15:00. > :15:06.In September there was a near mass between a train and a car at this
:15:06. > :15:09.level crossing on the Manchester line. The train involved was not a
:15:09. > :15:15.pacer but John is concerned that crowded pacer trains used the same
:15:15. > :15:20.line at peak times. You can see just how fast the trains come
:15:20. > :15:24.through here. The crossing is now closed and safety grounds for the
:15:24. > :15:34.foreseeable future. John is now campaigning for the pacer trains to
:15:34. > :15:39.
:15:39. > :15:47.be withdrawn from service by The priority is looking at unmanned
:15:47. > :15:53.crossings. We need to look at vulnerable areas of track. Long
:15:53. > :15:58.term, get rid of them altogether, there unsuitable for the 21st
:15:58. > :16:08.century. We asked the Office of Rail
:16:08. > :16:36.
:16:36. > :16:40.Regulation for their thoughts on This recent rail accident
:16:40. > :16:45.investigation branch reveals that there have been 60 incidents of
:16:45. > :16:52.mechanical failure and in one of those incidents that there you was
:16:52. > :17:02.not detected by the Czechs put in place to do so. -- the Czechs put
:17:02. > :17:21.
:17:21. > :17:27.in place. The Department of I am concerned because ago on those
:17:27. > :17:31.trains as well and every time I go on them I feel that I am putting my
:17:31. > :17:37.life at risk. I would like something to be done as quickly as
:17:37. > :17:43.possible. It would be great to have proper vehicles which can be safer
:17:43. > :17:49.and will give opportunity for it people to survive their travel.
:17:49. > :17:53.you feel that people are taking their lives into their own hands?
:17:53. > :17:59.They are certainly taking a bigger risk than the think and are being
:17:59. > :18:03.asked to take a bigger risk than the ought to. For some commuters
:18:03. > :18:11.one thing is for certain, for the foreseeable future it is still
:18:11. > :18:16.going to be standing room only. Say on a risk? The irony is after at
:18:16. > :18:23.2019 it is likely they will all have to be withdrawn from service
:18:23. > :18:28.because access requirements for it disabilities, not because of safety.
:18:28. > :18:38.The only chance you will get to see one will be in a model railway by
:18:38. > :18:44.
:18:44. > :18:49.One reason that trains are overcrowded is because our love
:18:49. > :18:57.affair with cars is dying. Research published today showed that the
:18:57. > :19:00.North West has one of the biggest fall in car usage is. Richard
:19:00. > :19:10.Westcott has been investigating the figures and asking what it means
:19:10. > :19:10.
:19:10. > :19:13.for those who plan the transport Building roads is controversial.
:19:13. > :19:17.Not building them can be controversial too. So how do
:19:17. > :19:23.planners get it right? How do they decide where to spend our taxes -
:19:23. > :19:33.on road or rail? The only way to ever be sure is to
:19:33. > :19:34.
:19:34. > :19:37.beam ourselves into the future. And we all know how easy that is.
:19:37. > :19:45.When these fans were watching their favourite series back in the '60s
:19:45. > :19:50.we thought we knew how we would be travelling by 2012. There was talk
:19:50. > :19:54.of having a little personal car that flew.
:19:54. > :19:58.But sci-fi got it wrong, most of us get around now the same way we did
:19:58. > :20:01.50 years ago - having your own jet pack remains a distant dream.
:20:01. > :20:05.And ever since I can remember there has been an assumption the traffic
:20:05. > :20:14.is just going to get worse and worse. After all, we all love our
:20:14. > :20:17.cars don't we? Well, maybe not. In transport
:20:17. > :20:25.circles there is a rumour going round that we are falling out of
:20:26. > :20:31.love with four wheels. They have even given it a name -
:20:31. > :20:34.Peak Car. So what is Peak Car? Well, just
:20:35. > :20:38.look at UK traffic growth in the '60s and '70s when we couldn't get
:20:38. > :20:48.enough cars, but by the '90s the trend was already slowing, and by
:20:48. > :20:52.
:20:52. > :20:57.about 2002 average mileage per person stalled. What seems to be
:20:57. > :21:02.happening in advanced countries is that traffic growth, and car use,
:21:02. > :21:05.is not going ahead at the same rates that it used to.
:21:05. > :21:08.Well, now Inside out has been given the first piece of in-depth
:21:08. > :21:11.research into Peak Car in the UK and this report is full of
:21:11. > :21:14.surprises. It shows that while some of us are driving more than ever,
:21:14. > :21:21.others are dramatically changing the way we travel.
:21:21. > :21:24.Take young men for example. Now when I was young, I couldn't
:21:24. > :21:27.wait to get my hands on my dad's Mark IV Cortina with reversing
:21:27. > :21:37.lights. Passing your test was seen as a rite of passage, but
:21:37. > :21:39.
:21:39. > :21:41.apparently that is changing. Market trader Lee Vernon is 19, but
:21:41. > :21:45.he won't be adding to the traffic around Mansfield Nottinghamshire
:21:45. > :21:55.any time soon. He is selling up because he has just been quoted
:21:55. > :22:00.
:22:00. > :22:05.�2,800 to insure his three-wheeler. I love it, it is a classic car and
:22:05. > :22:08.it is rare. But the insurance is too much and I cannot afford it.
:22:09. > :22:12.The research shows Lee is not alone. Young men are driving 2,000 miles a
:22:12. > :22:22.year less than they were in 1995. Women though, young and old, are
:22:22. > :22:24.
:22:24. > :22:28.actually driving more than they used to. So what is going on?
:22:28. > :22:33.change in attitude is people giving up and people using phones and
:22:33. > :22:42.Facebook, sitting around or using public transport, no one cares
:22:42. > :22:47.about cars any more. Young men are not driving so much and that he met
:22:47. > :22:51.in the report. There is a rise in education and insurance costs that
:22:51. > :22:57.could be to blame. But if that trend carries on we will see a lot
:22:57. > :23:01.less car traffic and a loss -- a lot less car ownership as well.
:23:01. > :23:04.So what else has the report found? Well, this is the rainy 7.16am from
:23:04. > :23:11.Warwick Parkway to Marylebone. Over the last 2 years the numbers using
:23:11. > :23:14.this line have gone up by a staggering 40%.
:23:14. > :23:17.And according to the report that is in line with a national trend.
:23:17. > :23:21.Since the mid-'90s the distance the average person travels by rail has
:23:21. > :23:31.soared by more than 60%, the last time the trains were this busy was
:23:31. > :23:33.
:23:33. > :23:39.during the war. The key growth is business travel in the morning and
:23:39. > :23:46.the other it is leisure travel at weekends. Train travel has become
:23:46. > :23:52.much cheaper. It costs more to travel by it a car or and
:23:52. > :23:56.congestion is increasing. Sitting with a laptop on the train.
:23:56. > :23:58.And of course all those gadgets mean you can now work or play on
:23:58. > :24:01.the move. You can even book your next train ticket.
:24:01. > :24:04.While rail travel is up, especially for business users, company car
:24:04. > :24:13.mileage is down - by 40% between 1995 and 2007, so that is before
:24:13. > :24:16.any recession. Scrapping tax breaks made the
:24:16. > :24:19.difference and it has had a big impact on traffic in London.
:24:19. > :24:22.Despite more people moving to the capital, there are fewer cars. But
:24:22. > :24:28.the report found in the countryside people seem to be driving as much
:24:28. > :24:33.if not more than ever. Of course in big cities you have a lot more
:24:33. > :24:36.options for getting around. Fairfax Hall runs a London company
:24:36. > :24:39.making specialist gin and vodka and thinks he has distilled the perfect
:24:39. > :24:42.formula for company travel. Whenever they need a car or van
:24:42. > :24:52.they book it from a car club and pick it up from a designated
:24:52. > :24:59.
:24:59. > :25:03.parking space 15 minutes later. Like other small start-up
:25:03. > :25:10.businesses beat will not have a lot of money so we invested everything
:25:10. > :25:18.ourselves. -- we did not have a lot of money. It is relatively low cost
:25:18. > :25:22.to do things this way. It is also flexible and you can drive at 15
:25:22. > :25:25.minutes' notice. So here is a question, what does
:25:25. > :25:30.all this research mean for the future of cars and the car
:25:30. > :25:35.industry? After all, we have had a bit of a boom recently.
:25:35. > :25:41.The UK is on course to produce more cars than at any time since 1972.
:25:41. > :25:44.But that is not because we are all buying ourselves a new motor. 80%
:25:44. > :25:48.are being exported - these Minis are heading to Asia and South
:25:48. > :25:51.America. Last month in London at the RAC's
:25:51. > :26:01.Future Car Challenge another famous sci-fi face was in no doubt what
:26:01. > :26:06.
:26:06. > :26:11.the future holds. It is that huge challenge for the car industry at
:26:11. > :26:18.the moment. The car is not coming to an end, it is too useful, but we
:26:18. > :26:23.need to rethink how we used cars. Electric cars are part of that, an
:26:23. > :26:27.electric cart in a city that you do not own makes much more sense.
:26:27. > :26:29.And it is not just the car industry that will be looking at this
:26:29. > :26:32.research. The Department for Transport is planning a major road
:26:32. > :26:35.building programme based on their model that traffic will increase by
:26:36. > :26:40.a 44% increase over the next two decades or so. But what if they
:26:40. > :26:47.have got it wrong? After all since 1989, successive
:26:47. > :26:56.governments have overestimated traffic growth. This is the range
:26:56. > :27:03.of predictions. The red line is what actually happened. Forecasting
:27:03. > :27:07.always has a risk of being wrong. But it takes a rich set of data and
:27:07. > :27:12.insurers that that data is a rigorously analysed. There is a lot
:27:12. > :27:22.of useful things in this research but I am not convinced -- I am not
:27:22. > :27:22.
:27:22. > :27:26.convinced it is the end all the car. The government points out the UK
:27:26. > :27:29.population is predicted to grow by another 10 million in the next 25
:27:29. > :27:37.years. And the RAC Foundation who helped fund the report says that
:27:37. > :27:42.means we are still going to need more roads. This is not the end of
:27:42. > :27:52.the car. A lot of the population do not have access to public transport
:27:52. > :28:01.
:28:01. > :28:04.in the same way. Almost half a century ago when Star
:28:04. > :28:07.Trek started this is what we thought travel in the 23rd century
:28:07. > :28:10.might look like - and it is pure '60s.
:28:10. > :28:13.It just shows how difficult it is to predict the future. But the
:28:13. > :28:16.danger is assuming it will look like an enlarged version of the
:28:16. > :28:26.present. More car traffic has been the transport story of the past 50
:28:26. > :28:32.
:28:32. > :28:37.years, it may not be the story of That is all from Piccadilly station
:28:37. > :28:42.if you missed anything you can see us on the iPlayer. I am back next