:00:15. > :00:19.Welcome to Inside Out. Here is what is coming up tonight. As prices of
:00:19. > :00:25.ponies plummet, we will find out about plans to ensure their future.
:00:25. > :00:30.They really don't like him, I'm afraid. He might not be a colt by
:00:30. > :00:33.the end of next week. Richard West colt looks to the future of a
:00:33. > :00:40.different sort of horse power as a new report suggests we are falling
:00:40. > :00:50.out of love with a car -- the car. Statistically older drivers may be
:00:50. > :01:17.
:01:17. > :01:25.safer, but how do you know if you My son, Neil, was a lovely young
:01:25. > :01:32.man. Very conscientious, very close to his family, and his brothers. He
:01:32. > :01:35.had so many plans and hopes for the future. March last year and 28
:01:35. > :01:42.year-old Neil Colquhoun was with colleagues celebrating his first
:01:42. > :01:46.few weeks of a new job. One of the girls, she wanted to go back to the
:01:46. > :01:51.car and my son being the gentleman that he was, I like to think of him
:01:51. > :01:56.as a gentleman, if escorted her back to her car. He was going to go
:01:56. > :02:03.back to where the others were and thought better of it so he Text his
:02:03. > :02:09.flatmate and said, put the Pizza on I am coming home now. But Neil was
:02:09. > :02:16.never to make it home. His route back took him along the A30 dual-
:02:16. > :02:21.carriageway. During the journey, Neil safely over took a BMW, all of
:02:21. > :02:29.a sudden he was confronted by a car travelling the wrong way down the
:02:29. > :02:34.carriage way. The two-car smash together in a head-on collision.
:02:34. > :02:37.There was banging on my bedroom door and I were cut, it was my son
:02:37. > :02:43.saying there is a policeman downstairs to speak with you. He
:02:43. > :02:49.said, I'm afraid there has been an accident. If it is pretty much head
:02:49. > :02:54.on. Neil's vehicle span around and collided with their car he was
:02:54. > :03:00.overtaking as well and then they hit head-on. His vehicle taught --
:03:00. > :03:06.caught fire and many witnesses did their best in an attempt to get
:03:06. > :03:12.Neil out of the vehicle. It would have been a traumatic
:03:12. > :03:16.scene to come across. There were flames, smoke. The driver of the
:03:16. > :03:21.other vehicle was 89 year-old Dr Turner Wadell. Badly injured, he
:03:21. > :03:30.and his wife were pulled away from their vehicle, but Neil remained
:03:30. > :03:39.trapped in his car. The car caught alight. There was nothing left with
:03:39. > :03:49.to identify my son. All that they could offer me was his burned
:03:49. > :03:51.
:03:51. > :03:56.mobile phone which was just melted plastic. You laugh and you joke,
:03:56. > :04:00.but it is hard, you are just breaking up. Of the tragic part of
:04:00. > :04:06.this crash was that it could have been completely avoided at Dr
:04:06. > :04:10.Turner Wadell was not fit to drive. On the day of the collision, we
:04:10. > :04:14.found that he had no sight in one eye and below the legal limit in
:04:14. > :04:19.the other. Therefore he could hardly see where he was going when
:04:19. > :04:24.he was driving. Dr Turner Wadell received A9 month suspended
:04:24. > :04:28.sentence after admitting causing death by careless driving. The
:04:28. > :04:32.judge us family members of elderly drivers to think very carefully
:04:32. > :04:36.whether their relatives should still be on the road. Dr Turner
:04:36. > :04:41.Wadell's Serna tried to stop his father from driving, but he could
:04:41. > :04:48.not convince him. A feeling of guilt that we could have done
:04:48. > :04:53.something, but in hindsight we know we couldn't. We gave advice, I gave
:04:54. > :05:01.advice and he listened, but he would not take it in. I even took
:05:01. > :05:08.him on the bus and said look, it is so easy. You can do your shopping.
:05:08. > :05:12.But, you know, it was probably arrogance. As you get older we all
:05:12. > :05:18.think we are perfect drivers and can keep going forever, but
:05:18. > :05:23.obviously not. At the age of 70, anyone driving has to reapply for
:05:23. > :05:29.their licence every three years. It is a cell certifying system and one
:05:29. > :05:33.that allowed motorists like Dr Turner Wadell to continue to drive.
:05:33. > :05:38.When Julia Langdon's 90 year-old father started having accidents she
:05:38. > :05:43.felt like she had a responsibility to stop him from driving.
:05:43. > :05:46.regarded any other car on the road as an invitation to overtake. He
:05:46. > :05:52.completely disregarded speed limits and thought-police men were young
:05:52. > :05:56.boys who did not know what they were doing. When you said to him,
:05:56. > :06:04.what about that accident with a lamp-post on the bypass? He would
:06:04. > :06:08.say that was ridiculous, they just had to put the light on. He had
:06:08. > :06:12.also beaten up about four of the neighbours' cars in the block of
:06:12. > :06:16.flats that he and my mother lived in. The family got very anxious and
:06:16. > :06:23.thought we should stop him driving before he killed someone and
:06:23. > :06:27.possibly A1 mother. Julia decided to take direct action. I contacted
:06:27. > :06:32.the DVLA and they said that if the doctor said he can go one driving,
:06:32. > :06:39.he can go on driving. I said, but he is dangerous. And they said I
:06:39. > :06:43.was infringing his human rights. PACTS recently published a paper
:06:43. > :06:47.looking into how to keep elderly people save on the road. One of
:06:47. > :06:53.their recommendations was that GPs should play more of an integral
:06:53. > :06:57.part in the system. If you think that they are not physically able
:06:57. > :07:00.to drive a car, you should ask them whether they are still driving
:07:00. > :07:04.because it is a key role that you have as a health professional to
:07:04. > :07:09.help save the lives of others as well as the life in front of you.
:07:09. > :07:13.It is very hard because it is requiring a doctor to think, should
:07:13. > :07:19.I sentence this person to a life behind their front door unable to
:07:19. > :07:23.get out? PACTS is recommending a national
:07:23. > :07:27.driving assessment scheme. At the moment appraisals exist that differ
:07:27. > :07:37.from county to county. 83 year-old Dennis Hilditch is worried about
:07:37. > :07:41.his driving as he grows older. I am very concerned about it. It
:07:41. > :07:48.seems almost impossible to imagine, but it will happen in due course.
:07:48. > :07:54.How long have you been driving? Motorcycles from the time I was 17,
:07:54. > :08:01.I am now 83 so you can do your maths. Do you worry about his
:08:02. > :08:11.driving? Is he a good driver? he is. I don't look for the pedal
:08:11. > :08:14.on my side. Today Dennis is taking a driver's assessment run by the
:08:14. > :08:22.Royal Society For The Prevention Of Accidents. At the end of your road
:08:22. > :08:29.we will turn to the right. I think the present scheme needs reviewing.
:08:29. > :08:34.It relies on people self certifying, GP's looking at the repercussions
:08:34. > :08:38.of taking Alison's of somebody. It is destructive to their one of the
:08:38. > :08:43.-- quality of life. It is difficult but we need to have a more robust
:08:43. > :08:49.system in place. Lots of parked vehicles, so what
:08:49. > :08:53.are you looking for? Anything that moves. If absolutely. If being your
:08:53. > :08:58.own critic is not good because you will always say you are perfectly
:08:58. > :09:02.safe. If you need somebody else to be strong enough to say it is time
:09:02. > :09:11.you stop. Members of your family won't let you know because they are
:09:11. > :09:21.too kind to say you keep on driving. What can you see ahead? Stop lights
:09:21. > :09:31.
:09:31. > :09:36.How was it? A I made some mistakes. Not as confident now. The moment of
:09:36. > :09:40.truth then, how did he do? He is being hard on himself. There were a
:09:40. > :09:44.few things I would need to point out, but overall if he gives the
:09:44. > :09:48.impression that he is an experienced driver and more
:09:48. > :09:55.importantly, he is conscious of the need to take account of other road
:09:55. > :09:58.users in busy traffic. It is hoped that recommendations by PACTS for a
:09:58. > :10:03.nationwide driving assessment scheme should help older people
:10:03. > :10:08.like Dennis make the difficult decision of when to stop driving.
:10:08. > :10:13.When is too old to drive? When you can no longer drive. When you are
:10:13. > :10:19.no longer fit to drive is too old. Until then, you are still fit to
:10:19. > :10:26.drive. Age does not come into it. It would be difficult to get used
:10:26. > :10:33.to, but I hope we are wise enough to know the time, when it is time
:10:33. > :10:37.to give up. The longer we discuss it, the more publicly we discuss it,
:10:37. > :10:42.the further down the chain it will get. The problem is that the
:10:42. > :10:46.automobile is your right to move around.
:10:46. > :10:51.Patricia Colquhoun is hoping that people's right to move around does
:10:51. > :11:00.not come at the cost of other people's lives. I don't hold the
:11:00. > :11:05.driver who killed my son of responsible for my son's death. It
:11:05. > :11:14.is the system because it is the system that allowed him to continue
:11:14. > :11:24.driving. The sadness of the whole thing is
:11:24. > :11:25.
:11:25. > :11:34.that my father, a well respected GP, should end his days taking a life.
:11:34. > :11:39.He is deeply sorry for what happened, I know that. I must pass
:11:39. > :11:46.our family's condolences to the Colquhoun family for what they have
:11:46. > :11:50.been through. My son always came for dinner on a Sunday. The last
:11:50. > :11:57.thing he said after dinner was, thanks mum, it was a lovely day
:11:57. > :12:06.enough. See you next week. If I said, you take care, I love you.
:12:06. > :12:12.And he called back, I love you too. It is a really difficult issue. Let
:12:12. > :12:17.me know your thoughts. You know what, there is a rumour
:12:17. > :12:27.that we are falling out of love with the car, but the question is,
:12:27. > :12:33.Building roads is controversial. Not building them can be
:12:34. > :12:43.controversial too. So how do planners get it right? How do they
:12:43. > :12:47.decide where to spend our taxes - on road or rail?
:12:47. > :12:50.The only way to ever be sure is to beam ourselves into the future. And
:12:50. > :12:54.we all know how easy that is. When these fans were watching their
:12:54. > :13:01.favourite series back in the '60s we thought we knew how we would be
:13:01. > :13:11.travelling by 2012. There was talk of having a little personal car,
:13:11. > :13:12.
:13:12. > :13:16.that flu. -- flew. But sci-fi got it wrong, most of us
:13:16. > :13:19.get around now the same way we did 50 years ago - having your own jet
:13:19. > :13:22.pack remains a distant dream. And ever since I can remember there
:13:22. > :13:27.has been an assumption the traffic is just going to get worse and
:13:27. > :13:32.worse. After all, we all love our cars don't we?
:13:32. > :13:37.Well, maybe not. In transport circles there is a rumour going
:13:37. > :13:40.round that we are falling out of love with four wheels.
:13:40. > :13:48.They have even given it a name - Peak Car.
:13:48. > :13:51.So what is Peak Car? Well, just look at UK traffic growth in the
:13:51. > :13:54.'60s and '70s when we couldn't get enough cars, but by the '90s the
:13:54. > :14:04.trend was already slowing, and by about 2002 average mileage per
:14:04. > :14:08.person stalled. Is the love affair with the car Colin Byrne? What
:14:08. > :14:13.seems to be happening in many advanced countries including even
:14:14. > :14:20.America is that traffic growth, due to car use, simply is not going
:14:20. > :14:23.ahead at the same rate that it used Well, now Inside out has been given
:14:23. > :14:26.the first piece of in-depth research into Peak Car in the UK
:14:26. > :14:29.and this report is full of surprises. It shows that while some
:14:29. > :14:38.of us are driving more than ever, others are dramatically changing
:14:38. > :14:42.the way we travel. Take young men for example.
:14:42. > :14:47.Now when I was young, I couldn't wait to get my hands on my dad's
:14:47. > :14:54.mark 4 Cortina with reversing lights. Passing your test was seen
:14:54. > :14:57.as a rite of passage, but apparently that is changing.
:14:57. > :15:02.Market trader Lee Vernon is 19, but he won't be adding to the traffic
:15:02. > :15:11.around Mansfield Nottinghamshire any time soon. He is selling up
:15:11. > :15:17.because he has just been quoted �2,800 to insure his three-wheeler.
:15:17. > :15:22.I'll have it, it is a great looking car, it is a classic car, but the
:15:22. > :15:27.insurance is too much and I can't afford it.
:15:27. > :15:30.The research shows Lee is not alone. Young men are driving 2,000 miles a
:15:30. > :15:35.year less than they were in 1995. Women though, young and old, are
:15:35. > :15:43.actually driving more than they used to. So what is going on?
:15:43. > :15:47.is changed in attitudes is that everybody gave up and got used to
:15:47. > :15:51.using Facebook and mobile phones and sitting around or using public
:15:51. > :15:58.transport, and I don't think anybody even cares about cars any
:15:58. > :16:03.more. There are a lot of possible explanations for young men not
:16:03. > :16:10.driving so much, rising insurance costs and so on, but the important
:16:10. > :16:16.point is that this -- if this trend carries on BOC less car traffic and
:16:16. > :16:19.less car ownership. -- we will see less car traffic.
:16:20. > :16:23.So what else has the report found? Well, this is the rainy 7.16am from
:16:23. > :16:29.Warwick Parkway to Marylebone. Over the last 2 years the numbers using
:16:29. > :16:34.this line have gone up by a staggering 40%.
:16:34. > :16:37.And according to the report that is in line with a national trend.
:16:37. > :16:41.Since the mid-'90s the distance the average person travels by rail has
:16:41. > :16:47.soared by more than 60%, the last time the trains were this busy was
:16:47. > :16:51.during the war. The key growth we have seen is in two areas, business
:16:51. > :16:56.travel in the morning with people getting to work and leisure travel,
:16:56. > :17:03.especially at weekends, and actually train travel has become
:17:03. > :17:11.much cheaper. It costs more to travel by car, so that value
:17:11. > :17:16.equation builds, in favour of the railways. Gadgets mean that you
:17:16. > :17:21.can't keep busy while you are on the move by you can even book your
:17:21. > :17:25.ticket on the train. While business travel by rail is up,
:17:25. > :17:28.company car mileage is down - by 40% between 1995 and 2007 - so that
:17:29. > :17:31.is before any recession. Scrapping tax breaks made the
:17:32. > :17:40.difference and it has had a big impact on traffic in London.
:17:40. > :17:43.Despite more people moving to the capital, there are fewer cars. But
:17:43. > :17:47.the report found in the countryside people seem to be driving as much
:17:47. > :17:52.if not more than ever. Of course in big cities you have a lot more
:17:52. > :17:58.options for getting around. Here is a question. What does this research
:17:58. > :18:03.mean for the future of the UK car industry? After all, we have had a
:18:03. > :18:09.boom recently. The UK is on course to produce more cars than at any
:18:09. > :18:14.time since 1972, not because we are applying ourselves a new motor, 80%
:18:14. > :18:24.of them are being exported - these manys are heading for the Asia and
:18:24. > :18:30.
:18:30. > :18:32.South America. -- Minis. And it is not just the car industry
:18:32. > :18:35.that will be looking at this research. The Department for
:18:35. > :18:38.Transport is planning a major road building programme based on their
:18:38. > :18:41.model that traffic will increase by a 44% increase over the next two
:18:41. > :18:43.decades or so. But what if they have got it wrong?
:18:43. > :18:46.After all since 1989, successive governments have overestimated
:18:46. > :18:48.traffic growth. This is the range of predictions. The red line is
:18:48. > :18:54.what actually happened. There is also a risk of forecasts being
:18:54. > :18:59.significantly wrong, but we take a wide and which set of data, we
:18:59. > :19:03.ensure that data is rigorously analysed. There are a lot of useful
:19:03. > :19:12.things in this research for us to have a look at, so I am not yet
:19:12. > :19:15.convinced that we have reached Peak Car.
:19:15. > :19:18.The government points out the UK population is predicted to grow by
:19:18. > :19:21.another 10 million in the next 25 years. And the RAC Foundation who
:19:22. > :19:25.helped fund the report says that means we are still going to need
:19:25. > :19:28.more roads. This is not the end of the car. The use of cars has been
:19:28. > :19:33.declining but, for 70% of the population, people will need to use
:19:33. > :19:38.cars unless they have other ways available and most people will not
:19:38. > :19:41.have those things. Almost half a century ago when Star
:19:41. > :19:45.Trek started this is what we thought travel in the 23rd century
:19:45. > :19:50.might look like - and it is pure '60s. It all goes to show just how
:19:51. > :19:55.hard it is to predict the future. The danger is, you assume that it
:19:55. > :19:59.is going to be like a bigger version of what we have today. The
:20:00. > :20:04.motor car has been the Tuzkoy story of the last 50 years, and I never
:20:04. > :20:14.thought I would say this but it might not be the transport story of
:20:14. > :20:15.
:20:15. > :20:22.the next 50 years. What does this button do again?! If you want to
:20:22. > :20:29.see air traffic has changed where you live, log on to our website.
:20:29. > :20:34.We're at their New Forest pony market. Prices are at rock bottom
:20:34. > :20:44.and there is concern about one of the South's most iconic animals, so
:20:44. > :20:47.
:20:47. > :20:50.what is their future likely to hold? The annual stallion
:20:50. > :20:53.inspection in the New Forest. This is a hot competition to choose
:20:53. > :20:56.which stallions will be allowed to mate with the mares. All of them
:20:56. > :20:59.are owned by Commoners, people who live in the Forest with rights to
:20:59. > :21:02.graze animals. Among them is Nicky Stevens whose pony is Branston
:21:02. > :21:07.Pickle. First he and the other ponies are inspected to see if
:21:07. > :21:12.they're good enough to breed from. He is a proper, rough and tough New
:21:12. > :21:17.Forest pony. He was born on the Forest. He has lived there since he
:21:17. > :21:24.was six months old, but we're looking at this confirmation. That
:21:24. > :21:32.is how he fits the agreed criteria, and we give him a mark out of five,
:21:32. > :21:40.if he is a top line, whether he has got good feet, and a nice head. He
:21:40. > :21:44.has got to look like Kate Middleton, really, I suppose! I would like him
:21:44. > :21:50.too great, but it is up to the judges. If it is good or bad,
:21:50. > :22:00.fingers crossed. We are pleased that he has passed, so we're on to
:22:00. > :22:00.
:22:00. > :22:04.the second stage, the vets. Once Pickle has been passed by the vet,
:22:04. > :22:07.more rigorous judging is on its way. Especially as this year as fewer
:22:07. > :22:10.stallions than ever before will be chosen to go on the Forest. That's
:22:10. > :22:17.because there's a bit of crisis out there. It may look wild and free,
:22:17. > :22:20.but in fact the herds of ponies are carefully managed. And this year,
:22:20. > :22:30.because of rock-bottom prices, they want to dramatically reduce the
:22:30. > :22:32.
:22:32. > :22:39.number of foals. The foal market has collapsed. You can sell a
:22:39. > :22:45.steady riding pony. They make good riding ponies when they are five
:22:45. > :22:52.years old, but the far managed to sell his false. One took the riding
:22:52. > :22:55.schools have gone out of business and they are our biggest market.
:22:55. > :23:02.With fewer stallions, there should be fewer foals, and hopefully
:23:02. > :23:06.prices will recover. The man who has to make sure all this works is
:23:06. > :23:10.the head Agister, Jonathan Gorelli, who's also a Commoner. This year,
:23:11. > :23:15.we have only turned out at 10 stallions and only for a month.
:23:15. > :23:19.That is the lowest number of a tower and out onto the forest. That
:23:19. > :23:24.is simply because we're hoping to produce fewer falls by doing that,
:23:24. > :23:29.and by selecting the better stallions, we will be producing a
:23:29. > :23:34.nice fall, that the Commoner can take on and market and find a good
:23:34. > :23:37.home for. Quality is important, but without quantity you lose diversity,
:23:37. > :23:44.and that could have disastrous consequences for the 4,500 ponies
:23:44. > :23:53.out on the Forest. If you narrow the gene pool too much you're
:23:54. > :23:59.leaving yourself a problem. If there is some sort of genetic
:23:59. > :24:04.problem with the pony, if you have got a diverse range of gene pool,
:24:04. > :24:08.that problem might not manifest itself all only come out in a small
:24:08. > :24:12.number of animals but if you now prodigy in Poole and two of their
:24:12. > :24:17.animals do not have that defective gene, that can come out in the
:24:17. > :24:22.progeny and it can cause immense problems to did read. We are
:24:22. > :24:32.nowhere near that situation but it is something that you have to be
:24:32. > :24:32.
:24:32. > :24:36.Back at the final stage of the inspection, will Pickle be one of
:24:36. > :24:39.the chosen few to go out on the Forest? It'll be a few weeks before
:24:39. > :24:43.the owners find out. The judges, the Verderers, will check their
:24:43. > :24:52.bloodlines to check on the all- important diversity. So how will
:24:52. > :25:00.that affect Pickle's chances? Unfortunately Pickle is by a
:25:00. > :25:07.popular stallion. He has got quite a lot of colts already registered
:25:07. > :25:12.by the same sire. But they have taken the bloodlines of the mayor,
:25:12. > :25:18.as well, so we will just have to wait and see to decide what they
:25:18. > :25:27.might want to do. If they don't like him, I'm afraid he might not
:25:27. > :25:30.be a colt, by the end of next week! A month haspassed and I'm glad to
:25:30. > :25:34.tell you Pickle still has the full package. But he's not going out on
:25:34. > :25:41.the Forest this year. Instead he's been put on reserve, and is now on
:25:41. > :25:45.his way to a temporary home away from the mares. He has been round
:25:45. > :25:49.bout with the rest of the young stallions and he will be
:25:49. > :25:54.represented next year as a three- year-old, and it is up to the verge
:25:54. > :26:00.of us again, and this next year he should be turned out in the New
:26:00. > :26:08.Forest as a sort of acting stallion. I never expected him to be so
:26:08. > :26:11.highly thought of. But there is one stallion whose time is now. This is
:26:11. > :26:14.Woodfidley Top Gun, a three year- old, who was chosen to go out this
:26:14. > :26:22.year. He immediately rounds up the mares. He's got just one month to
:26:22. > :26:27.enjoy himself. What do you think swung it for Rhyl? He is good
:26:27. > :26:34.looks! He has got a good confirmation, he has got everything
:26:34. > :26:38.we like in a stallion and that is really all there is to it. We want
:26:38. > :26:42.to produce something that is going to live on a forest or be a
:26:42. > :26:52.saleable item, so he takes all the boxes. Hopefully, he will cover as
:26:52. > :27:00.many mayors as he can, so hopefully, he will do his business and get on
:27:00. > :27:03.with it and we will see some nice falls next year. Pickle has arrived
:27:03. > :27:06.at his new home and there's another colt belonging to the Head
:27:06. > :27:09.Agister's family who's also being turned out. Both will stay here,
:27:09. > :27:16.free of charge to the owner, till next year when they'll be inspected
:27:16. > :27:19.again. By keeping a pool of stallions, the Verderers have a
:27:19. > :27:26.choice of ponies that can be turned out when they need them, and,
:27:26. > :27:30.hopefully, ensure a wider gene pool for the future. The New Forest
:27:30. > :27:35.ponies are an icon, a fixture of the landscape, they have always
:27:35. > :27:41.been here, and a mention back in the mists of time, the Domesday
:27:41. > :27:45.Book etc, there have always been ponies in the forest and therefore
:27:45. > :27:50.Commoners, and they are hopeful that in 60 years' time when I am
:27:50. > :27:53.long gone there will still be New Forest ponies out there, hopefully
:27:53. > :27:59.still strong and robust, and that we can keep it all going, but we
:27:59. > :28:03.must be careful, and we must not let things slip, and I would like
:28:03. > :28:09.to think the measures we have in place at the moment will keep it
:28:09. > :28:13.going for future generations. the wild ponies that age would be
:28:13. > :28:22.together, anyway, they would be on the edge of the herd, as a little
:28:22. > :28:27.bachelor hair. They will have passed their test and grown up.
:28:27. > :28:37.Some stunning pictures of those stallions. More stories from the
:28:37. > :28:38.
:28:38. > :28:44.south next week. Until then, We find one couple from Hampshire