:00:21. > :00:33.welcome. Tonight, we are in Sheffield. This week scientists are
:00:34. > :00:39.warning that we could he heading towards a miniature ice age. Good
:00:40. > :00:46.winters like the one in 2010 become more frequent? And if so, how would
:00:47. > :00:54.we call? Seriously, we would have to think about moving. Also, cracking
:00:55. > :01:03.down on smugglers. We follow officers trying to stop illegal
:01:04. > :01:10.tobacco coming into the country. And the great outdoors. An explorer
:01:11. > :01:16.looks at the benefit of kids getting into the countryside. These are
:01:17. > :01:25.young ones are getting proper life skills that will stay with them.
:01:26. > :01:32.It is a typically rainy autumn day here. Apparently, we could be
:01:33. > :01:37.returning to a period and claim it has to be known as the miniature ice
:01:38. > :01:42.age. Scientists have been monitoring a massive drop in sunspot activity
:01:43. > :01:51.which, in the past, has been linked with Siberian winters. They
:01:52. > :01:59.certainly know a thing or two about cold winters here on the North York
:02:00. > :02:03.Moors. When the fierce winter of 1962 came calling, Catherine and
:02:04. > :02:13.John were slap bang in the front line.
:02:14. > :02:20.It was a long one. And it started on Boxing Day. My parents came up for
:02:21. > :02:28.Christmas and went home early because of the forecast. I had a
:02:29. > :02:32.three`month`old child. I was snowed in for two and a half months. The
:02:33. > :02:43.snow got deeper and deeper and deeper. It was a savage winter. 30
:02:44. > :02:50.foot snowdrifts and even parts of the sea froze over. As the
:02:51. > :02:59.thermometer dropped, a nearby RAF station was evacuated. I presume
:03:00. > :03:07.they were led by somebody who knew the move pretty well. They walked
:03:08. > :03:14.down the railway. By the time they reached the railway, most of them
:03:15. > :03:23.were done in. Single file, all the way down the moves. Aitken passed
:03:24. > :03:26.our house. `` they came. Hearing those recollections was very
:03:27. > :03:30.interesting. But what I have not told them is that those types of
:03:31. > :03:37.winters could return with a vengeance. We all know how we
:03:38. > :03:46.struggle with periods of severe cold weather. The last taste was in 2010.
:03:47. > :03:50.Predictable results. It was the coldest December since 1890.
:03:51. > :03:56.Widespread travel disruption, parts of the country grinding to a halt.
:03:57. > :04:02.But it only lasted a matter of weeks. How would we call it that
:04:03. > :04:06.lasted several months? The idea of prolonged and severe winters is not
:04:07. > :04:10.based on science fiction. One leading scientist thinks it could be
:04:11. > :04:19.linked to a dramatic fall in sunspot activity. We thank the sun is quite
:04:20. > :04:36.telling more rapidly than at any time in the last 10,000 years. ``
:04:37. > :04:44.whitening. `` quitening. We think it ties up with cold winters in Eastern
:04:45. > :04:48.Europe and the UK. It is becoming increasingly apparent that declining
:04:49. > :04:52.solar activity may make the jet stream and we can and force it
:04:53. > :04:57.further south than normal, leaving us prone to colder winters. If you
:04:58. > :05:00.go far enough back in the history books there are two periods which
:05:01. > :05:07.covers a clue as to which they has to which the history may bring.
:05:08. > :05:11.Fascinating periods of UK climate, both of which coincided with weak
:05:12. > :05:17.solar activity. The first was known as the miniature ice age, lasting
:05:18. > :05:25.through part of the 1600s into the early 18th`century. And more
:05:26. > :05:31.recently, in the early 19th`century, and both periods coincided with very
:05:32. > :05:36.cold winters and your summers. The first was the more severe. During
:05:37. > :05:41.this time the River Thames famously froze over. Whilst there were other
:05:42. > :05:48.harsh winters, not everyone was a bad one. You might think that all
:05:49. > :05:53.this talk is just a load of hot air. After all, the past two decades have
:05:54. > :05:59.mainly consisted of mild, wet, windy winters. If anything, the perception
:06:00. > :06:05.is that flooding is the main risk. What about global warming? Most
:06:06. > :06:09.scientists believe that long`term global warming has not gone away and
:06:10. > :06:14.that any increase in cold winters will be a regionalised event in
:06:15. > :06:19.north`western Europe. A drop in winter temperatures could dampen
:06:20. > :06:24.rising global temperatures but the effect is likely to be temporary.
:06:25. > :06:27.And it is the position of our islands, under the age of
:06:28. > :06:38.continental Europe, which makes are especially vulnerable to change. ``
:06:39. > :06:43.makes us. We get the sort of winters that we had in 2010. Instead of the
:06:44. > :06:49.weather approaching from the Atlantic, wet, windy, mild, it comes
:06:50. > :06:53.from Europe, and in some respects could be regarded as coming from
:06:54. > :06:59.Siberia. Adding a little more to the description of the weather we get.
:07:00. > :07:04.If the weather does change, how bad could it get? This vessel has
:07:05. > :07:12.monitored sunspot activity and believes we may be heading into more
:07:13. > :07:20.severe territory. I estimating that at least about 8%, although it could
:07:21. > :07:30.be more like 25, 30%, that is a much larger chance that we get... That is
:07:31. > :07:35.not an insignificant risk. It is not. And there is the scientific
:07:36. > :07:42.probability that the link is real. There are other factors, but I think
:07:43. > :07:45.the link is real. So the professor believes that the link between
:07:46. > :07:50.following sunspot activity and extend winters could be significant.
:07:51. > :07:58.If he is right, what could that mean? We know that transport, power
:07:59. > :08:05.supplies, energy prices, and all sensitive to price `` to the weather
:08:06. > :08:10.systems. In 2010 prices rocketed as the weather placed a strain on the
:08:11. > :08:16.system. So how would we cope with supplying the basics of everyday
:08:17. > :08:22.life? We got a taste in 2010 and we saw that as extreme. It opened our
:08:23. > :08:30.eyes into is of, well, we will see more of this. `` in terms of. So
:08:31. > :08:36.going for what it is all about planning to have 4x4 vehicles,
:08:37. > :08:43.things like that. We would have to look at the trends. Would it be a
:08:44. > :08:48.one`off? If it happened next year then we would really have to look at
:08:49. > :08:56.things, the investment, purchasing snow tires, other things that could
:08:57. > :09:01.help supply the customers. Yes, we are vulnerable to that type of cold
:09:02. > :09:08.spell. Short, sharp ones, we can cope with, prolonged ones, very
:09:09. > :09:15.difficult. Sprouts are vulnerable in cold winters. The water crystals in
:09:16. > :09:22.the cells freeze. If you handle it while it is frozen it is frozen
:09:23. > :09:32.outbursts the cells. `` while it is frozen, it bursts. Scientists do
:09:33. > :09:38.agree on one thing, Britain as it stands is not ready to cope with
:09:39. > :09:44.extreme winter episodes. These are profound issues. Calder, longer
:09:45. > :09:49.winters. Heating bills, irrespective of the background policy, are
:09:50. > :09:55.continuing to rise. It will expose weaknesses in fuel policy and the
:09:56. > :09:59.system. We need more close, we need to warehouse things, we need more
:10:00. > :10:08.power stations to meet the energy demands, `` more snowploughs. All of
:10:09. > :10:15.these things become more sensible and economic if you are going to
:10:16. > :10:22.face any more cold winters. The indications are that we may.
:10:23. > :10:29.Catherine and John can look back on 1962 as a severe test. And one that
:10:30. > :10:36.they came through unscathed. How would you cope should we see a
:10:37. > :10:40.return? I honestly do not know. Seriously we would have to think
:10:41. > :10:45.about moving. You cannot expect people to help you, year after year,
:10:46. > :10:53.week after week, month after month, that is too much for anybody. How
:10:54. > :10:57.long have we got to prepare? One estimate is between 20 and 40 years.
:10:58. > :11:04.But there are those that feel that with winters like 2010 under our
:11:05. > :11:08.belt, the change is underway now. If you have any views on that want to
:11:09. > :11:17.tell us about a story, please get in touch. You can do so via Facebook or
:11:18. > :11:21.Twitter. Coming up: Out and about, we look at whether our children are
:11:22. > :11:33.taking part in the outdoor opportunities. `` enough. Over the
:11:34. > :11:42.last two years a staggering 3.6 William illegal cigarettes from ``
:11:43. > :11:48.3.6 billion have been seized on their way into the country. We
:11:49. > :11:54.joined the border force at a busy terminal as they tried to disrupt
:11:55. > :11:58.the trade in illegal tobacco. It is a slow burning fraud costing the
:11:59. > :12:05.taxpayer to billion pounds in lost revenue every year. Tens of
:12:06. > :12:09.thousands of pounds of tobacco are smuggled into the UK every year by
:12:10. > :12:14.people who do not consider it a crime. It fosters a black market and
:12:15. > :12:18.a culture of criminality. Smugglers are not like Long John Silver
:12:19. > :12:26.anymore. They are a mixed demographic. According to experts at
:12:27. > :12:34.its young children at risk. Once hoped, it is a lifetime addiction.
:12:35. > :12:37.Half will die prematurely. A bright dawn at Hull docks and the
:12:38. > :12:43.cross`channel ferry from Belgium is carefully guiding home bleary eyed
:12:44. > :12:49.passengers. It has been a long trip and many are glad to be home. Good
:12:50. > :12:56.morning everybody. Today's deployment will be... Also up at the
:12:57. > :13:04.crack of dawn at a hand`picked team from the border force. As they
:13:05. > :13:07.prepare for the operation trying to disrupt the flow of contraband
:13:08. > :13:11.tobacco they know that some of the passengers preparing to get off the
:13:12. > :13:16.ferry will soon have the wind knocked out of their sails.
:13:17. > :13:19.Commercial supply rather than identical use, if that is
:13:20. > :13:29.identified, we should seize goods. Any questions? Let's roll. People
:13:30. > :13:33.will purchase hand rolling tobacco in Belgium, not counterfeit, genuine
:13:34. > :13:42.product, then bring it back in and sell it in pubs, clubs, factories,
:13:43. > :13:45.through informal networks. If you are travelling outside the EU you
:13:46. > :13:50.are allowed to bring a maximum of 200 cigarettes home. But within the
:13:51. > :13:55.Eurozone it is a grey area. You can bring back what ever you can improve
:13:56. > :13:59.as for your personal use. Today border force will try to weed out
:14:00. > :14:04.those whose stories do not ring true. We are looking at people
:14:05. > :14:07.unlimited means spending huge amounts of money on tobacco which is
:14:08. > :14:13.not commensurate with your income, and also making frequent trips. Most
:14:14. > :14:18.of the people called in today will be able to justify what they brought
:14:19. > :14:25.back, but some will not. Passengers with a large quantity of tobacco,
:14:26. > :14:28.IST is about ?1000 worth, obviously I need to be satisfied that they do
:14:29. > :14:36.smoke and that the consumption rate equates to what they have. `` I
:14:37. > :14:49.estimate it is about. I got this yesterday. After half an hour this
:14:50. > :14:54.lady was able to justify her supply. We go about four times a year. Three
:14:55. > :14:59.times as for pleasure, once for tobacco, and that last was the whole
:15:00. > :15:06.year. It makes sense to stock up for the full year, it last longer. But
:15:07. > :15:17.these two what are we leaving ?1000 of tobacco behind. `` walked away. I
:15:18. > :15:22.am gutted. 50% of the tobacco which is sold, figures suggest that half
:15:23. > :15:26.of it is on the black market, sold under the counter. That is why it is
:15:27. > :15:36.important for us to protect revenue and deal with the organised crime
:15:37. > :15:41.groups. 20 miles away from Hull Docks in this pretty village of
:15:42. > :15:49.Market Weighton. Terrence Nolan of Hill Rise Drive was given a
:15:50. > :15:52.suspended sentence after pleading in Hull Crown Court. He was caught
:15:53. > :16:01.selling tobacco from a shed in his garden. There are two demand lines.
:16:02. > :16:06.One is newspapers, obviously. Another is tobacco. If they do not
:16:07. > :16:10.come in, they do not see what you have got there is not an opportunity
:16:11. > :16:16.to sell them something else. It is estimated the illegal puts up to one
:16:17. > :16:20.in five local newsagents at risk. One of the amazing things I found
:16:21. > :16:24.being new to the retail trade was the amount of cigarette papers we
:16:25. > :16:28.sell when you compare it to the amount of rolling tobacco you can
:16:29. > :16:35.sell. You sell a lot more cigarette papers. It tells me that people are
:16:36. > :16:40.not buying the tobacco legally. The revenue that is lost on tobacco is
:16:41. > :16:45.equivalent to ?100 for every single UK taxpayer. It is real money that
:16:46. > :16:53.is not going to the revenue. That is wrong. The consequences are not just
:16:54. > :16:59.financial. According to anti`smoke organisations, they put young lives
:17:00. > :17:03.at risk. We are concerned about illegal tobacco because it is more
:17:04. > :17:07.likely to be offered to kids will stop people will sell on some of our
:17:08. > :17:12.estates to children of the age of ten. They are more tempted to try
:17:13. > :17:18.and they are more likely to get hooked. The earlier you get hooked,
:17:19. > :17:24.the more likely you are to get smoking`related diseases. The
:17:25. > :17:31.children are often offered other illegal products as well. On the
:17:32. > :17:36.streets of Hull , where one in three adults smoke, the examples of people
:17:37. > :17:44.prepared to buy off the black market are not hard to find. You just need
:17:45. > :17:52.to know people and ask about. You can get it cheaper from someone who
:17:53. > :18:00.sells foreign tobacco. It is good for me because it saves me money. If
:18:01. > :18:05.I had a kid, I would not want them smoking at the age of 13. Because I
:18:06. > :18:13.can get them cheap, I smoke more. I would spend ?3 50 for 20 instead of
:18:14. > :18:19.?7 at the shop. They would go in a day. If I bought them from the shop,
:18:20. > :18:31.I would rush them out. It is a problem which is particularly
:18:32. > :18:36.problematic in the North. You have a culture where certain areas become
:18:37. > :18:40.dependent on tobacco barons, organised crime groups, providing
:18:41. > :18:45.the smoking. It fosters an entire black`market, a culture of
:18:46. > :18:50.criminality that we want to avoid. Inside the terminal, the border.
:18:51. > :18:55.Finished their shakedown of today's passengers. It has been a great
:18:56. > :19:04.success. 400 passengers, stopped 10%. You can see behind us, 66 kilos
:19:05. > :19:12.of tobacco today. But has protected ?14,000 of public money. Today's
:19:13. > :19:16.operation has netted a decent Hall. This will be lumped together and
:19:17. > :19:26.used as fuel in the nearby power station `` netted a decent haul.
:19:27. > :19:29.For generations, they've provided thousands of youngsters with some of
:19:30. > :19:32.the most formative experiences of their school life. But there are
:19:33. > :19:40.fears council`run outdoor education centres could soon vanish
:19:41. > :19:46.altogether. We sent our reporter to find out. Daybreak on an autumnal
:19:47. > :19:52.Friday morning in Scarborough but this is no ordinary school day. As a
:19:53. > :19:54.minibus waits outside Newby and Scalby Primary School, pupils are
:19:55. > :20:01.about to head off for an experience which could alter the course of
:20:02. > :20:04.their lives forever. This lot are heading to Whitby for outdoor
:20:05. > :20:08.education. Some will never have been so deep into the countryside. The
:20:09. > :20:11.memories and the social skills they picked up are likely to stay with
:20:12. > :20:16.them for the rest of their lives. Here in north Yorkshire they are in
:20:17. > :20:18.the minority. These children are going to a local authority run
:20:19. > :20:24.centre which according to some experts are big becoming
:20:25. > :20:28.increasingly under pressure `` are becoming increasingly under
:20:29. > :20:32.pressure. The centres are not replaced. People should get back to
:20:33. > :20:41.nature a bit more and understand what the environment is about. Good
:20:42. > :20:46.mutating, let us go. For the staff and pupils, outdoor
:20:47. > :20:51.education is just as important as the hard work they carry out in
:20:52. > :20:54.lessons. This group have been picked to represent their school council
:20:55. > :21:03.and have been sent away for a bonding session. Today the kids are
:21:04. > :21:05.off gorge scrambling and it is about confidence, teamwork and
:21:06. > :21:11.understanding leadership and a lot of fun. I am looking forward to see
:21:12. > :21:15.how they get on. With plenty of obstacles to overcome, they are soon
:21:16. > :21:20.being tested. This is really important with communication. Make
:21:21. > :21:26.sure you are talking to each other. What do you reckon so far? Quite
:21:27. > :21:33.exciting. Are you ready to get in the water? I am going to enjoy it.
:21:34. > :21:39.Any scary bits? The small spaces. Can you see improvements that are
:21:40. > :21:44.linked to this experience? Yes. We invest the school budget into this
:21:45. > :21:48.sort of programme. We look at the barriers to the children learning in
:21:49. > :21:53.all aspects of the school life. We can identify it quite often as
:21:54. > :21:57.self`esteem. Not being able to solve problems. As soon as we have them
:21:58. > :22:01.involved in experiences like this, we know they will come back into
:22:02. > :22:06.school and into their family lives and perform much better. Many of our
:22:07. > :22:13.pupils will say, that is the most important experience I had. North
:22:14. > :22:17.Yorkshire's three centres are currently subsidised by a voluntary
:22:18. > :22:25.?400,000 grant from the county's schools. But elsewhere the picture
:22:26. > :22:29.is more precarious. Headteachers are given a pot of money called pupil
:22:30. > :22:32.premium which they can spend anyway they want to improve performance
:22:33. > :22:36.which does not have to include activities like this. Because it is
:22:37. > :22:41.outside of any sort of statutory provision and therefore it is often
:22:42. > :22:45.seen as an extra. We would argue that when used properly it really
:22:46. > :22:58.has a positive role to play within the curriculum. Who is going to look
:22:59. > :23:07.after me? Ready? Have you got me? Hands up, guys. I am heavier! This
:23:08. > :23:09.is great. The kids have figured out they need to raise their game. We
:23:10. > :23:26.are going through there. There is not much room in there.
:23:27. > :23:30.Whatever provision people like these youngsters might have in the future,
:23:31. > :23:33.studies have shown that carefully planned challenging activities just
:23:34. > :23:43.like this can enhance their personal and academic lives way into the
:23:44. > :23:47.future. Good job. Across the country, outdoor education is a
:23:48. > :23:51.mixed picture of local authority, Private and charitable provision
:23:52. > :23:56.with schools making individual choices about where they go and what
:23:57. > :23:59.activities they want. One thing most centres agree on including this one
:24:00. > :24:05.across the border in West Yorkshire is that schools often need to be
:24:06. > :24:10.more ambitious. We have seen a lot more wrapping of cotton wool around
:24:11. > :24:14.students. We see people less inclined to get out there and
:24:15. > :24:21.writings. A large part of that is to do with schools and parents's
:24:22. > :24:29.perception of how risky it is. In reality, it is not as risk filled as
:24:30. > :24:33.they imagine `` and get stuck in. One man who calculates risk on a
:24:34. > :24:39.daily basis is Alan Hinkes, the only Briton to find all 14 of the
:24:40. > :24:47.world's highest mountains. Skills forged at his school in
:24:48. > :24:52.Northallerton. Nice handhold there. He is worried not enough youngsters
:24:53. > :24:57.are being inspired early on. We were noted for having a tough stiff upper
:24:58. > :25:00.lip, explorer types. There is no doubt that I personally think that
:25:01. > :25:08.people are getting softer. Young people I work with, they are not
:25:09. > :25:12.prepared to suffer how I did. You have got to be able to suffer a
:25:13. > :25:17.little bit. When you go out in the hills when it is raining or snowing
:25:18. > :25:21.and have a fantastic adventure. More and more people do not go out to
:25:22. > :25:25.play nowadays. That is why more than ever it is essential that we provide
:25:26. > :25:34.a service to take young people into the outdoor environment. Striking a
:25:35. > :25:36.balance between challenging our children and exposing them to
:25:37. > :25:44.unnecessary risks is at the very core of this debate. High`profile
:25:45. > :25:47.tragedies including the death of two leads schoolchildren, Hannah Black
:25:48. > :25:52.and Rochelle Cauvet, they were swept to their deaths while attempting to
:25:53. > :25:56.cross Stainforth Beck on a school trip, it has led to the outdoor
:25:57. > :26:00.education industry becoming one of the most tightly regulated and
:26:01. > :26:04.monitored in the country. The risks you are looking out for young people
:26:05. > :26:08.who do not get involved in sport and other activities, it is the base
:26:09. > :26:13.thing in terms of fitness, but there is also the problem in that if you
:26:14. > :26:19.take away the activities, you are taking away something that will help
:26:20. > :26:27.them build independence. Make sure it is nice and tight. One. Two.
:26:28. > :26:32.Three. Go. Fantastic.
:26:33. > :26:36.With more children living in urban areas, the opportunity for them to
:26:37. > :26:39.get experiences in the wild are narrowing according to the man in
:26:40. > :26:44.charge of North Yorkshire and's outdoor education. If local
:26:45. > :26:50.authority centres like this lose their funding, what will happen? We
:26:51. > :26:54.know it enhances education and provides a really rich environment,
:26:55. > :27:00.the children who need it will not get it. We are talking about equal
:27:01. > :27:04.access for all. Yes, it is really in Portland. The researchers showing
:27:05. > :27:07.that people in receipt of income support and in less affluent areas,
:27:08. > :27:12.they receive less residential and outdoor education and those children
:27:13. > :27:16.in more affluent areas. I think what local authority is about is
:27:17. > :27:21.providing equal access. It is a challenge for all of us. The centres
:27:22. > :27:24.themselves and the schools. We have to ensure what good quality looks
:27:25. > :27:29.like and pushed the centres and the schools up to another level to get
:27:30. > :27:40.the really challenging activities where they are on their own and are
:27:41. > :27:46.being pushed. You may not be able to get A*s for gorge scrambling, but
:27:47. > :27:51.these youngsters are getting proper life skills, a healthy sense of
:27:52. > :27:56.exploring, teamwork, leadership, sense of confidence. Marvellous.
:27:57. > :28:01.What do you think of it? Excellent. Really fun. A really good time. Some
:28:02. > :28:07.bits were hard. When people were stuck me you had to help them. What
:28:08. > :28:12.did you learn? You can all work together, even if you don't really
:28:13. > :28:15.know the people that much. It would be a shame if cutbacks and a more
:28:16. > :28:20.risk averse culture were allowed to block the pathway for the next
:28:21. > :28:25.generation of adventurers to get the kind of early support they need and
:28:26. > :28:33.to transform thousands of lives. Thanks for letting me join you.
:28:34. > :28:37.Goodbye. That is all for tonight from
:28:38. > :28:40.Sheffield and indeed for this series of programme at Crewe. I will see
:28:41. > :28:49.you again in January when we will be back from more stories from where
:28:50. > :29:07.you live `` this series of Inside Out.
:29:08. > :29:11.Hello, I'm Riz Lateef with your 90-second update. Four people are
:29:12. > :29:14.dead after the worst UK storm for years. Hurricane-force conditions
:29:15. > :29:18.left almost half a million homes without power. In some areas wind
:29:19. > :29:24.speeds reached up to 99 miles-per-hour. The weather caused
:29:25. > :29:27.travel chaos for many. Rail and road services were disrupted because of
:29:28. > :29:30.fallen trees, while over a hundred flights had to be cancelled at
:29:31. > :29:32.Heathrow. Get the latest updates on BBC Local Radio.
:29:33. > :29:36.On trial over the phone-hacking affair. Two former News of the World
:29:37. > :29:40.editors, Rebekah Brooks and Andy Coulson. Both deny being involved in
:29:41. > :29:44.accessing voicemails. The NHS in England must handle
:29:45. > :29:47.complaints better. That's according to a new government report. It says
:29:48. > :29:51.there's a culture of delay and denial which needs to change.
:29:52. > :29:54.Are our streets being lost under a tide of litter? The charity Keep
:29:55. > :29:59.Britain Tidy thinks we're dropping around thirty million tonnes every
:30:00. > :30:00.year. It estimates cleaning it up costs more than a billion