30/06/2011

:00:17. > :00:24.Tonight, who will be Inverclyde's and UMP, and will the by-election

:00:24. > :00:28.result have ramifications beyond Greenock? We will have the results

:00:28. > :00:33.like when it comes in. And the views of some of our most senior

:00:33. > :00:37.Westminster politicians who will be here at Pacific Quay. Also, the

:00:37. > :00:43.latest in the drama of the Edinburgh trams. Will they are want

:00:43. > :00:48.they cancel the whole shooting match? And how have Scotland's

:00:48. > :00:52.government responded over the strikes over cuts and pensions. I

:00:52. > :00:59.can't tell you when the programme will finish tonight. That will

:00:59. > :01:05.depend when the vote counting starts in Inverclyde. Laura Bicker

:01:05. > :01:10.is at the count in Greenock. What is happening, if anything?

:01:10. > :01:14.votes are currently being verified. A couple of people have gone off

:01:14. > :01:19.for a coffee break. The fact that we have a number of politicians who

:01:19. > :01:25.are jittery and full of nerves is testament to how a Scottish

:01:25. > :01:32.parliament have changed. This time last year, David Cairns took this

:01:32. > :01:35.seat with 14,416 votes. This is AC twitch Labour have held for about

:01:36. > :01:41.80 years in one form or another. The Labour candidate should be down

:01:41. > :01:46.there with his feet on the table waiting for his vote to be counted.

:01:46. > :01:51.Instead, they have been out their rallying because of the encroaching

:01:51. > :01:55.SNP vote. Tonight, the Labour camp do seem more confident than they

:01:55. > :01:59.have been over the last couple of weeks. However, if the SNP have

:01:59. > :02:07.encroached on the majority, it will be a major scalp even for them to

:02:07. > :02:12.do that. You are saying that Labour seem more confident. What are the

:02:12. > :02:15.SNP saying, do they seem down in the dumps? No, no one is down in

:02:15. > :02:20.the dumps here tonight. What we are looking at is a picture that nobody

:02:20. > :02:26.really knows what is happening. That in itself is a testament to

:02:26. > :02:31.how Scottish politics have changed. We have a majority of 14,416 votes

:02:31. > :02:37.put a stop to see that in any way slashed will be a major victory. At

:02:37. > :02:41.the moment, even Labour, who were trying to tell us earlier that

:02:41. > :02:45.there are liberal pockets throughout this seat, that perhaps

:02:45. > :02:49.they are not sure where they voted. They needed two things to happen

:02:49. > :02:52.today. They needed their traditional Labour vote to help --

:02:52. > :02:56.hold, and they also needed the Labour voter to come out. We are

:02:56. > :03:04.not sure what that turnout is like. We are clearing estimates of around

:03:04. > :03:09.the early 40s. At the same time, we have had John Prescott here, Ed

:03:09. > :03:13.Miliband, all the big hitters, all the people to persuade that Labour

:03:13. > :03:17.voter to come out. That's why they really needed, because the SNP have

:03:17. > :03:20.been encroaching on the Labour vote throughout the past couple of weeks.

:03:21. > :03:25.Alex Salmond has even been outside the polling stations tonight. This

:03:25. > :03:31.is his 7th visit here in the last couple of weeks. His almost been

:03:31. > :03:37.camped out in Inverclyde. We will be back to you later on. Throughout

:03:37. > :03:44.the evening my colleague Raymond Buchanan will be outside the studio

:03:44. > :03:50.with a panel of politicians. Raymond. I am joined by the SNP MP

:03:50. > :03:55.Stuart Hosie, also by Labour's Douglas Alexander, Jo Swinson of

:03:55. > :03:59.the Liberal Democrats is here also. As is the Scotland Office minister

:03:59. > :04:04.David Mundell. All of whom will be potential colleagues for whoever is

:04:04. > :04:08.the next Inverclyde MP. It is very early, we have no idea when the

:04:08. > :04:11.result will come in, but this is a by-election Special, and we

:04:11. > :04:16.specialise on these programmes in gossip until we get an actual

:04:16. > :04:20.result. Let's catch up with Stuart Hosie. The SNP put an awful lot of

:04:20. > :04:24.effort into this by-election. What are you clearing from the polls?

:04:24. > :04:28.This is a by-election nobody wanted. We'd all rather David Cairns was

:04:28. > :04:33.with us, but we've had to get on and do the job. The problems, I

:04:33. > :04:37.can't really tell you very much because the turnout across the

:04:37. > :04:42.constituency vary widely. At 7pm there was 40 % turnout in some

:04:42. > :04:45.areas but then there were only 20 % in others. It's a mixed picture. We

:04:45. > :04:51.will have to wait until some of the boxers are open and we get some

:04:51. > :04:56.real information. A sow the SNP, with all its famous software when

:04:56. > :05:00.it comes to elections, you still haven't got much detail. There are

:05:00. > :05:05.massive differential turnout. We are confident our vote will go up.

:05:05. > :05:09.We only got 17.5 % last time but I'm sure we'll be doing much better.

:05:09. > :05:13.But in terms of calling this the turnout across the constituency are

:05:13. > :05:18.so varied, I wouldn't put a call on it tonight. Douglas Alexander, what

:05:18. > :05:23.we are hearing is that Labour have held on to this seat, is that what

:05:23. > :05:27.you're hearing? I hope so. I've spent the last 12 hours, I came

:05:27. > :05:31.straight from Greenock here to the studios. We've been working flat

:05:31. > :05:35.out to try and mobilise the Labour vote. If you look at the

:05:35. > :05:40.Westminster boundaries of this seat and apply the last Scottish

:05:40. > :05:44.Parliament results, Bennett's the SNP's seat to lose rather than

:05:44. > :05:49.eight safe Labour seat. We are going to work flat out to try to

:05:49. > :05:52.listen and learn and hopefully win that support. I would agree that

:05:52. > :06:00.the turnout, we were predicting it would be in the low 40s. That was

:06:00. > :06:03.four hour dart our specialists were saying that. One of the determining

:06:03. > :06:07.factors will be which party has managed to mobilise within those

:06:07. > :06:13.areas where the turnout was lower. We were getting a very positive

:06:13. > :06:16.response from some of the doorsteps from the undecided people, they had

:06:16. > :06:20.and made their mind up until a couple of weeks ago. Jo Swinson,

:06:20. > :06:23.your party had the disaster a couple of months ago in the

:06:23. > :06:27.Scottish parliamentary elections. Is this going to be a year when we

:06:27. > :06:31.see the comeback of the Liberal Democrats or yet another disaster?

:06:31. > :06:34.It's very early days. This has been a very short campaign. It's one

:06:34. > :06:38.that is in tragic circumstances that nobody wanted to have. There

:06:38. > :06:43.does come very shortly after what was undoubtedly a very bad night

:06:43. > :06:46.for as in May. I don't think... While we don't make many

:06:46. > :06:49.predictions at this stage of the programme, I don't think it's a

:06:49. > :06:53.wild estimate for me to say we expect the Liberal Democrats to

:06:53. > :06:59.storm to victory or have a wonderful result tonight. Better

:06:59. > :07:03.than 5th? We will have to wait and see what the results are. It has

:07:03. > :07:07.been a hard-fought campaign, particularly where you have two

:07:07. > :07:10.parties - the SNP having done very well last month, this was a seat

:07:10. > :07:13.that the SNP thought they had a chance of gaining and Labour

:07:13. > :07:18.thought they had a chance of losing. That has been a hard-fought contest,

:07:18. > :07:21.which can often mean for other parties their vote can be squeezed.

:07:21. > :07:26.But we've had an excellent candidate in, Sophie Bridger, was

:07:26. > :07:30.brought enthusiasm to the campaign. We have to wait and see what the

:07:30. > :07:35.votes sake. David Mundell, elections are often an exercise in

:07:35. > :07:39.hope. For the Conservatives, quite a lot of hope if you expected to

:07:39. > :07:43.win this. You will fall off the last time the Westminster seat back

:07:43. > :07:48.row was contested, where do you think you will be this evening?

:07:48. > :07:54.hope we will have moved up the position. Our objective going into

:07:54. > :07:59.this by-election, which was a very unfortunate one, David Cairns was a

:07:59. > :08:04.really great guy. I regard David as a personal friend. The fact we are

:08:04. > :08:08.having this by-election is very sad indeed. Our objective was to come

:08:08. > :08:13.third in this election and to hold our deposit. This is an election

:08:13. > :08:17.where people see the main protagonists as Labour and the SNP.

:08:17. > :08:22.We wanted Conservative voters to come out and vote conservative. We

:08:23. > :08:27.had an excellent candidate in David Wilson, who was a well-known, local

:08:27. > :08:31.person. You could see that in his own area, everybody knows and

:08:31. > :08:36.respect him. Did you tell the voters you were only hoping to come

:08:36. > :08:42.third? We were out to win every vote we could. But we are realistic

:08:42. > :08:48.going into an election where we finished fourth. A seat where even

:08:48. > :08:53.back when in 1992, the last two Conservative government that was

:08:53. > :08:57.elected, we weren't even a protagonist in this by-election. We

:08:57. > :09:01.are realistic in assessing our own chances. But in terms of votes in

:09:01. > :09:08.an election, you want every single person who wants to vote for your

:09:08. > :09:12.party to come out and do so. I think there is some evidence in our

:09:12. > :09:17.own picking up on the day that some Conservatives have voted Labour

:09:17. > :09:27.because they were concerned about the rise of the SNP. I think that

:09:27. > :09:29.

:09:29. > :09:34.may well be something that we will Or externally from a by-election

:09:34. > :09:39.for a moment. Today, the PCS union claimed 30,000 other members went

:09:39. > :09:42.on strike in Scotland against the UK government's plans for pension

:09:43. > :09:49.reform. South of the border, around one-third of all schools were

:09:49. > :09:52.closed. The government insists 75% of all civil servants worked as

:09:53. > :09:57.normal and disruption at airports was minimal.

:09:57. > :10:00.The unrest in Athens yesterday near the Greek parliament showed just

:10:01. > :10:05.how strong feelings can get when people are told their pensions will

:10:05. > :10:10.be cut, and they will have to work longer and contribute more. Here,

:10:10. > :10:14.things tend to be done rather differently, but the Public and

:10:14. > :10:19.Commercial Services Union, PCS, say feelings run as deep as elsewhere.

:10:19. > :10:24.The pickets were out in front of the Houses of Parliament, taking

:10:24. > :10:29.their cases directly the politicians. The state -- the

:10:29. > :10:33.strike caused closure of thousands of schools and offices. Those who

:10:33. > :10:36.say pensions are afford will need to say which hospitals and schools

:10:36. > :10:40.they will close down. Witch doctors and nurses and teachers they would

:10:40. > :10:45.make redundant in order to pay for continuing subsidies to public

:10:45. > :10:48.sector pensions. We want public sector pensions to be among the

:10:48. > :10:53.best available, but people are living longer, so it is fair that

:10:53. > :10:56.they should work for longer and have a longer retirement. It is

:10:56. > :11:01.fair that they should pay more so that the balance between what other

:11:01. > :11:06.taxpayers pay and what they themselves pay is more balanced.

:11:06. > :11:09.Wales, the Welsh assembly was picketed in what the piece CSA was

:11:09. > :11:13.the best supported strike they have ever had. At Holyrood, members were

:11:14. > :11:23.on the picket line making a point it MSPs, even though they have no

:11:24. > :11:26.

:11:26. > :11:35.direct control over pensions. Scottish government has shown that

:11:35. > :11:44.support. In general, we support the fact they have a claim. The way the

:11:44. > :11:48.UK Government is going about this is certainly not directly.

:11:48. > :11:53.Glasgow's George Square was the scene of the main Scottish Rally,

:11:53. > :11:56.attended by around 700 people, although the PCS the around the

:11:56. > :12:02.30,000 members took part in a day of action across the country. They

:12:02. > :12:06.have done their sums and they don't like it is added up. I have also

:12:06. > :12:11.been asked to take a cut in my pension and pay more contributions

:12:11. > :12:15.towards it. I did not cause this problem, it was the casino bankers

:12:15. > :12:20.who brought this country to its knees. We will find that in the

:12:20. > :12:26.years to come, more and more of our pensions will be whittled away.

:12:26. > :12:31.Where there's goal, everyone else's will follow. At Faslane nuclear

:12:31. > :12:34.submarine base, civilians arrived for the start of their working day.

:12:34. > :12:39.Managers attending airport say there was no disruption even though

:12:40. > :12:45.this is probably their busiest day of the Year. Clyde coastguard were

:12:45. > :12:50.hit. Pickets made their case outside of Glasgow's passport

:12:50. > :12:54.office. Visitors and those working at Edinburgh Castle had to decide

:12:54. > :12:58.whether to cross a picket line there. I think it is important to

:12:58. > :13:03.put an end to the myth. People say that we have gold-plated pensions.

:13:03. > :13:09.The average civil servant takes on a pension of �80 a week. I will

:13:09. > :13:13.repeat that: at �80 a week. People that have gold-plated pensions are

:13:13. > :13:18.MPs and senior bankers, who have got in all of these bonuses despite

:13:18. > :13:27.getting us into this mess in the first place. Today, life in Athens

:13:27. > :13:32.was resembling to -- or returning to something resembling normality.

:13:32. > :13:38.Today, the anger and passion was in place in Glasgow, London and

:13:38. > :13:45.Newcastle. Today's protests could be the first of many.

:13:45. > :13:48.I enjoyed now by Lynn Henderson, Scottish Secretary of the PCS.

:13:48. > :13:54.Before we get into the rights and wrongs of this, I am curious as to

:13:54. > :13:57.how it works. Are all of your members in Scotland working on

:13:57. > :14:03.pension schemes that are UK-wide pension schemes, and therefore the

:14:03. > :14:07.same as your colleagues down south? No. We have a number of members in

:14:07. > :14:12.the commercial sector, and privatise the areas and their

:14:12. > :14:15.formerly civil servants. All other civil service membership are in the

:14:15. > :14:20.UK Civil Service pension scheme. The Scottish government in a way

:14:20. > :14:27.has nothing to do with this, even though you guys are its civil

:14:27. > :14:30.servants? The point of devolution that meant that the UK Civil

:14:30. > :14:33.Service was retained, but what the Scottish government does have power

:14:33. > :14:40.over is a native pay that its members get, and that is something

:14:40. > :14:45.they can do about. It is not their responsibility to either reform the

:14:45. > :14:50.pensions often not reform than? have power in the Scottish garment

:14:50. > :14:54.to do something about the pensions. What have you achieved today?

:14:54. > :15:00.have achieved a massive turnout of our membership across Scotland. In

:15:00. > :15:04.every single part of Scotland from Shetland to Dumfries. This is shown

:15:05. > :15:08.the power and the strength in Scotland. We were striking a loan,

:15:08. > :15:12.we were not sticking with the teaching unions as they were down

:15:12. > :15:15.south. We have seen a rally in George Square today and support

:15:15. > :15:19.after support from all the major unions in Scotland, prepared to

:15:19. > :15:25.stand with us in the future. problem you have is that if

:15:25. > :15:32.teachers go on strike, it is a big deal. Parents have to find

:15:32. > :15:37.alternative care for the children, it causes all sorts of disruption.

:15:37. > :15:42.Civil servants at Holyrood go on strike, do people really care?

:15:42. > :15:46.think definitely. If you look at cities there, you see the picket

:15:46. > :15:50.line at the Faslane where there had to bus in people from York. If you

:15:50. > :15:55.look at the passport office where I was this morning, people turning up

:15:55. > :16:00.for passports had to be turned away. If you look at services in

:16:00. > :16:05.Jobcentres and tax offices, courts were close today. Theatre 5 courts

:16:05. > :16:09.in Dundee did not sit. If you look at the prostate -- Procurator

:16:09. > :16:15.Fiscal Service, all of these are key public services they did not

:16:15. > :16:22.function as normal today. There are many people who do not work in the

:16:22. > :16:27.public sector and they may say private sector pensions are

:16:27. > :16:31.changing to go to the public sector, it is not fair that, firstly,

:16:31. > :16:38.everyone in the public sector get a better pension and secondly that I

:16:38. > :16:46.have to pay for it. We also pay taxes to. We also pay as taxpayers

:16:46. > :16:50.for private sector pensions. We are all in this together. Everyone

:16:50. > :16:53.keeps saying this. It is not the race to the bottom, but isn't that

:16:53. > :17:00.perfectly reasonable for the government to say, as it does, we

:17:00. > :17:06.are not in -- instigating a race to the bottom. We're not proposing

:17:06. > :17:10.that pensions and the public sector should be taking away from you, or

:17:10. > :17:13.indeed that it should be put down to the level of private sector

:17:13. > :17:17.pensions which depend on the performance of the stock market.

:17:17. > :17:24.They are not racing to the bottom, they are simply saying that some

:17:24. > :17:27.adjustments need to be made to save money. That is a fallacy. The

:17:27. > :17:32.Public Affairs Committee, the National Audit Office, have all

:17:32. > :17:36.said that civil service pension scheme is affordable, sustainable

:17:36. > :17:42.and reducing costs. There is no need to reduce the cost of the

:17:42. > :17:45.pension scheme and the way that is being undertaken. To be accurate, I

:17:45. > :17:51.think they graph they were talking about on Newsnight earlier shows

:17:51. > :17:55.that from 2015 their share of GDP taken up by paying for public

:17:55. > :18:00.sector pension Stark's to decline. I do not think it is declining at

:18:00. > :18:04.the moment. It is a sustainable scheme. It is a not about saying

:18:04. > :18:09.let us increase contributions of people get more at the end. That

:18:09. > :18:12.money is going into the Treasury's coppers to pay the deficit. We have

:18:12. > :18:16.an alternative way of dealing with the deficit and that is not about

:18:16. > :18:20.taking money away from public sector workers. Our members get an

:18:20. > :18:24.average of �80 a week. That is hardly gold-plated compared to some

:18:24. > :18:30.of the top level of the private sector pensions. What is the

:18:30. > :18:34.solution you have? Our solution is tax justice. We believe that

:18:34. > :18:39.instead of taking the money from public sector workers' pockets, we

:18:39. > :18:41.should collect �120 billion annually that goes out of this

:18:41. > :18:48.country in tax avoidance and tax evasion. It is quite simple and

:18:48. > :18:53.quite straight forward. Every tax worker in this country, but Mac

:18:53. > :18:56.leads invest in the people that the right to deliver the services.

:18:57. > :19:01.is a bit knockabout, isn't it? The government is doing with a serious

:19:01. > :19:06.issue here. Of course, everyone would like to see tax-avoidance cut

:19:06. > :19:11.down, but there are any number of people, both in the public sector

:19:11. > :19:13.and the private sector, he would be lining up to say here is one of the

:19:13. > :19:20.intended billion pounds and here is our plans for its. It is not quite

:19:21. > :19:27.clear why you should be at the top of that you? A it is �120 billion a

:19:27. > :19:30.year. Where is that money going? Willey making public sector workers

:19:30. > :19:35.pay for something you did not cause? We will have to leave it

:19:35. > :19:38.there. Thank you very much indeed. Let's return to the Inverness by-

:19:38. > :19:43.election votes which are currently being counted, but additionally

:19:43. > :19:48.they had been weighed for the Labour Party. David Cairns held it

:19:48. > :19:57.with a 14,000 majority. Ashok campaign has seen the SNP vying for

:19:57. > :20:02.victory. Raymond Buchanan has been following the campaign.

:20:02. > :20:07.The loss of David Cairns was a terrible tragedy. For his family

:20:07. > :20:10.and loved ones and also thought the Labour Party and across Scotland.

:20:10. > :20:15.Use of the turnout today from political colleagues and people

:20:15. > :20:20.across the political spectrum, and the community here. You can see the

:20:20. > :20:25.esteem in which he was held by many people. This was an election nobody

:20:25. > :20:35.expected. David Cairns was just 44 when he died in May. He represented

:20:35. > :20:40.

:20:41. > :20:50.the area for a decade. Labour chose a quick by-election campaign. The

:20:51. > :20:52.

:20:52. > :20:59.eyes of the country focused on Inverclyde. There is not much in

:20:59. > :21:03.this town for young people. You either go out and drink or take

:21:03. > :21:08.drugs, that is pretty much this whole area. There is nothing much

:21:08. > :21:13.else to do. Are you looking for a job? In this area, there is no

:21:13. > :21:19.point in even looking for a job because there isn't any. There are

:21:19. > :21:24.no shops open, the places derelict more or less. And surprisingly,

:21:24. > :21:28.employment, or the lack of it, was a big issue of this campaign. The

:21:28. > :21:38.UN and educated are leaving behind the old and dependent. The local

:21:38. > :21:43.council says the area's future is in jeopardy. The SNP picked an

:21:43. > :21:50.unemployed former M -- MSP as their candidate. The two front-runners

:21:50. > :21:53.clashed on telly, not over creating jobs by taxing them. And the

:21:54. > :22:02.council, you're in a position where council workers will be

:22:02. > :22:07.disadvantaged. Absolutely not. I will say now. Are you guaranteeing

:22:07. > :22:17.no compulsory redundancies? There will be no compulsory redundancies

:22:17. > :22:18.

:22:18. > :22:26.and a never will be. I agree with the in their... Labour hope to hold

:22:26. > :22:34.onto the seat by promising a plan for jobs and cutting knife crime.

:22:34. > :22:38.What of the other contenders? Eventually the Lib Dems chose a

:22:38. > :22:44.fresh-faced 22-year-old student as a candidate. A sign of confidence?

:22:44. > :22:48.We did not have a problem finding a candidate but obviously it was not

:22:48. > :22:54.easy. Not many people were happy to stand after the beating we did it

:22:54. > :22:59.the Scottish election. We were absolutely delighted when Sophie

:22:59. > :23:02.Bridger elected to stand. Is it fair to say that for the Liberal

:23:02. > :23:06.Democrats and Inverclyde this is more about rehabilitating the party

:23:06. > :23:11.than it is about seriously challenging at Westminster? I think

:23:11. > :23:15.that is probably quite true in some ways. As I said, I don't think we

:23:15. > :23:18.series the thing she will win. Nevertheless, what they will hope

:23:18. > :23:22.to achieve is to prove to the people of Inverclyde at we're still

:23:22. > :23:32.here, despite what happened a month or so ago. We're still here and

:23:32. > :23:35.

:23:35. > :23:41.David Wilson was the Tory hopeful, well, hope for in a loose sense of

:23:41. > :23:48.the word. I'm heading for second. I'm within 400 votes of the Lib

:23:48. > :23:54.Dems. It's not unachievable. Turn of this group, which is what we

:23:54. > :23:58.intend to do. 62. Alex Salmond took to the bingo halls as the party

:23:58. > :24:03.big-hitters swept into town. The victor of last month's historic

:24:03. > :24:06.election was predicting another seismic shock. I think this is

:24:06. > :24:10.earthquake proportions if we win this seat. This is one of the very

:24:10. > :24:17.few seats we didn't win from the Labour Party in last month's

:24:17. > :24:21.elections. We didn't win the last by-elections that they had, did he?

:24:21. > :24:25.He's doing it again. He's a bit of a street fighter, that's what he

:24:25. > :24:30.does. The bear was one more controversy that failed to get much

:24:30. > :24:35.attention. Let's call it strictly come up snubbing. This was at a tea

:24:35. > :24:40.dance for the elderly in Port Glasgow town hall yesterday. I was

:24:40. > :24:44.there talking to somebody, some of the elderly folk, and the SNP

:24:45. > :24:49.candidate arrived. I asked if I could have the pleasure of the next

:24:49. > :24:54.dance. She snapped me. She said she didn't want to dance with me. I

:24:54. > :24:59.felt very hurt by that. Be cos you are a Tory? I think it was. I was

:24:59. > :25:04.told it was because I was a member of the coalition. I didn't to snub

:25:04. > :25:11.him. I told him that when I am his MP I will dance with every one of

:25:11. > :25:17.my constituents. The you know come back because he's a Tory? Yes.

:25:17. > :25:21.There's a scandal for you. Raymond may have gossip, but here we have a

:25:21. > :25:25.panel who will give you quite extraordinarily high-falutin

:25:25. > :25:32.analysis. In London, we have Michael White, who rides for the

:25:32. > :25:38.Guardian. In Edinburgh, George Kerala. In Glasgow, Lorraine

:25:38. > :25:44.Davidson of the times. And Alf Young of Inverclyde' urban

:25:44. > :25:49.regeneration company. Michael, I know you have to leave us for a

:25:49. > :25:52.while. Let's start with you. I imagine that neither Nick Clegg nor

:25:52. > :25:58.David Cameron are biting their fingernails waiting for this result,

:25:58. > :26:02.but may be Ed Miliband is. Labour doesn't like setbacks in Scotland,

:26:02. > :26:08.which you know his Heartland country. Gordon Brown suffered a

:26:08. > :26:13.few knocks before he lost office last year. On the other hand, David

:26:13. > :26:17.Cairns was a popular fellow, died young of a nasty disease. In my

:26:17. > :26:21.experience, that often helps out a successor candidate. With a

:26:21. > :26:26.majority like this one, I don't imagine Mr Miliband has gone to bed

:26:26. > :26:30.expecting to lose this one unless somebody has sidled up to him, and

:26:30. > :26:35.they sometimes do, and say bad news coming from the north, boss. I

:26:35. > :26:41.don't thing that's happened in this case. What is your sense of what

:26:42. > :26:47.this would mean to Labour across the UK if the SNP won, or even if

:26:47. > :26:51.the SNP just knocked a huge dent in Labour's majority? In politics,

:26:51. > :26:57.like football or horse racing, winning is winning. If you won by a

:26:57. > :27:00.whisker, that's good enough. I think Labour, the defeat in the

:27:00. > :27:04.Holyrood elections in May, it won't get much worse than that. This

:27:04. > :27:07.would be another cherry on the cake for Alex Salmond. He's had a

:27:07. > :27:11.tremendous double stag nobody on either side of the border expected

:27:11. > :27:15.the SNP to get a majority at Holyrood. I thought that was how

:27:15. > :27:19.the whole system was designed, that nobody, not even Labour, was

:27:19. > :27:22.supposed to get a majority. I don't think it changes the way that much

:27:23. > :27:27.either way. But if he lost it wouldn't do the man any good, and

:27:27. > :27:31.he's not having a terrific time. He's doing better than the

:27:31. > :27:38.newspapers say. You say better than the newspapers say, you are from

:27:38. > :27:44.the newspapers, I'm curious... The impression one gets his the

:27:44. > :27:48.whispering about Ed Miliband is coming from newspapers, but is it

:27:48. > :27:53.also coming from within the leadership of the Labour Party at

:27:53. > :28:02.the moment, or is it just a media thing, they decided he is a bit of

:28:02. > :28:06.a lemon? The media would do that anyway. We all expected. David

:28:06. > :28:11.Miliband, we expected him to win. There is always whispering in

:28:11. > :28:14.political parties. A point of comparison, I think it's legit that

:28:15. > :28:20.if you consider the state of the Labour Party after the last time it

:28:20. > :28:23.lost office, 1979, when there were three or four macro years of civil

:28:23. > :28:27.war before Neil Kinnock began to get a grip on the party. You

:28:27. > :28:32.compare that with what happened after the last time the

:28:32. > :28:37.Conservatives lost power in 1997, where the war of Thatcher's

:28:37. > :28:41.succession rumbled on for years. Until Michael Howard took it. So

:28:42. > :28:45.far they are in much better shape. They are not falling apart, they

:28:45. > :28:49.are just not very inspiring and voters aren't interested in them

:28:49. > :28:53.yet because they haven't yet begun to feel the coalition has committed

:28:53. > :28:57.such crimes and incompetence is, they've got to find somebody else

:28:57. > :29:01.to vote for in a hurry. You are still at that early stage of the

:29:01. > :29:04.parliament and Ed Miliband is holding his own a bit. Why he

:29:04. > :29:09.wanted the job, you never ask that in politics because they all say,

:29:09. > :29:15.my time has come. They follow their instincts. It's tough being laid --

:29:15. > :29:20.leader of the opposition when you've just lost. There is a. Of we

:29:20. > :29:24.are in very early days after the SNP winning its majority. I'm sure

:29:24. > :29:28.you would like the SNP to win tonight, but there's an odd sense

:29:28. > :29:33.in which unless Labour somehow or other increased its majority over

:29:34. > :29:38.the SNP, which no one thinks is likely, that the SNP can't really

:29:38. > :29:42.lose this. If they win this seat it's fantastic. If they take a

:29:42. > :29:51.chunk out of Labour's majority, they will say it has been a Labour

:29:51. > :29:55.seat forever. I think you are right. What was interesting to me was the

:29:55. > :30:00.fact that the Labour Party seemed to throw everything, including the

:30:00. > :30:04.kitchen sink, into this campaign. They were a bit worried about it.

:30:04. > :30:08.One of the fascinating things about Inverclyde when you go there is

:30:08. > :30:14.it's very much like Scotland in the 1970s. I went down whole streets

:30:14. > :30:18.where you didn't see an Asian name or a Polish name. The SNP tens to

:30:18. > :30:23.do well in populations where there is aspiration. The problem for the

:30:23. > :30:27.poor folk in Inverclyde is the economy has imploded and they hope

:30:27. > :30:33.seems to have gone. You seem to be slightly implying that you think

:30:33. > :30:41.the SNP's hopes of winning this might have gone as well.

:30:41. > :30:44.personally think it was always a difficult one. What we know is

:30:44. > :30:49.about a third of the Labour voters in the general election last year

:30:49. > :30:55.switched to the SNP in May. If you factor that into David Cairns's'

:30:55. > :30:59.vote last year, 56 %, the SNP still can't quite get there. What is

:30:59. > :31:03.important is for the SNP to continue to show this surge that

:31:03. > :31:07.it's seen in the West of Scotland, which is historically unique. If it

:31:07. > :31:11.can maintain that, it can maintain that third of the voters who

:31:11. > :31:17.switched to the SNP and get them to vote in the referendum for

:31:17. > :31:21.independence, then the SNP wins the final game. George put his finger

:31:21. > :31:26.on something there. If Labour did lose this would be relatively badly

:31:26. > :31:29.in it, they've got no one to blame but themselves because everyone and

:31:29. > :31:35.his Auntie has been out there trying to win it for Labour.

:31:35. > :31:39.They've had all the big guns out. But few are the big guns? They had

:31:39. > :31:42.Ed Miliband AB, who I don't think has really connected with the

:31:43. > :31:47.Scottish electorate as yet. He was up for the Scottish elections a

:31:47. > :31:50.month ago and didn't really do much then. They don't have a leader in

:31:50. > :31:54.Scotland at the moment. They are bringing out John Prescott, who is

:31:54. > :31:58.a great campaigner, but I think there's a problem. They had Gordon

:31:59. > :32:03.Brown as well. I think you need to be a current politician for voters

:32:03. > :32:06.to really give you that proper respect. If you are trying to

:32:06. > :32:11.balance the Labour big hitters against Alex Salmond, they are

:32:11. > :32:14.still struggling. Until they have a leader whose main aim is to get

:32:14. > :32:20.things on track in Scotland, they are going to struggle against Alex

:32:20. > :32:24.Salmond. So you think Ed Miliband just doesn't have the kind of

:32:24. > :32:33.profile that would enable him to get close to that? Definitely not.

:32:33. > :32:37.I don't think Scottish voters particularly take to him. He's very

:32:37. > :32:42.new in the job. David Miliband was on the doorsteps in Inverclyde and

:32:42. > :32:46.was being introduced to people. People were opening their doors and

:32:46. > :32:49.they were saying, you will know who this is, they were met with blank

:32:49. > :32:54.stares. I think both David and Ed Miliband of people whose careers

:32:54. > :32:58.have been in London. He hasn't made that breakthrough in Scotland yet.

:32:58. > :33:03.It's too soon, he doesn't have the hinterland that Gordon Brown had.

:33:03. > :33:07.To expect him to be able to come off and pull it off, people were

:33:07. > :33:11.always divided by Tony Blair and how well even he did. The guy that

:33:11. > :33:15.won them all the landslide elections, how welcome he was in

:33:15. > :33:18.Scotland, particularly towards the end. At the moment, there is still

:33:18. > :33:24.this big vacancy in terms of leadership within leader -- within

:33:24. > :33:28.Labour, where Alex Salmond has consolidated. He has got that great

:33:28. > :33:33.victory a month ago and he is the man of the moment. He still has

:33:33. > :33:37.that momentum. He has visited Inverclyde seven times. He is still

:33:37. > :33:41.carrying that thing with him and saying to the voters, I am the

:33:41. > :33:44.right decision. People do like to back winners. They do see Alex

:33:44. > :33:48.Salmond as a strong political figure. Labour have still got this

:33:48. > :33:52.vacuum at the top of not having the political figure and still

:33:52. > :34:01.struggling on the political message. Is your sense that they will hang

:34:01. > :34:07.on, Labour? I think they will hang on. The SNP will/that majority. In

:34:07. > :34:12.Inverclyde, you have an area that has pockets of strong Lib Dem vote.

:34:12. > :34:16.I think that David Cairns factor will be significant. There is a

:34:16. > :34:19.politician who was a man who was really respected and have the

:34:19. > :34:24.common touch but was a politician of great standing, one of the best

:34:24. > :34:30.at Westminster. Alf Young, what's your impression been of this

:34:30. > :34:37.campaign? I was on holiday for most of it! I didn't see a great deal of

:34:37. > :34:40.it. I was down once last week for a board meeting. You are involved.

:34:40. > :34:46.chair the regeneration company down there, it's trying to regenerate

:34:46. > :34:50.the waterfront. In an election, a by-election the scenario, everybody

:34:50. > :34:56.wants to come and be in at the places we are regenerating. So we,

:34:56. > :35:02.as an organisation, we can't have any political bias, we had to stand

:35:02. > :35:06.back. Being on holiday was quite useful. You have politicians

:35:06. > :35:11.banging on your office door and trailing television crews around.

:35:11. > :35:14.There are things happening. I'm glad that George has visited

:35:14. > :35:18.Inverclyde during the campaign. But his description of it as a place

:35:18. > :35:23.that has imploded and feels like the 1970s, that's not my impression

:35:23. > :35:31.of the place now. There are things happening. But the politicians want

:35:31. > :35:34.a bit of any starburst they can find. We had to stand back. I think

:35:34. > :35:40.we should return later and talk a little bit because it's been a big

:35:40. > :35:49.issue during the campaign. I can say actually that we now know there

:35:49. > :35:53.has been a 45 % turnout. That's quite high, isn't it? Labour would

:35:53. > :35:57.think that was their vote coming out for them. There's no one really

:35:57. > :36:01.to kick because the Labour Party are down at the moment. People are

:36:02. > :36:07.not in the mood to go and give them a kicking. There's not a sense of

:36:07. > :36:13.anger in this by-election. I think Labour would be quite buoyed up by

:36:14. > :36:19.having that. Raymond, why don't you get all of your people there to

:36:19. > :36:25.tell us that 45 % turnout means they have actually won?

:36:25. > :36:30.Let's begin with Douglas Alexander from the now favourites, installed

:36:30. > :36:34.Labour Party. 45 % turnout - does that mean you're going to win?

:36:34. > :36:40.hope so. It's broadly in line with our predictions of what we were

:36:40. > :36:43.expecting in the course of the day. Let me just say that I thought

:36:43. > :36:47.those comments were shameful, suggesting that people in

:36:47. > :36:50.Inverclyde don't have aspirations. That's not the experience I've had

:36:50. > :36:54.in recent weeks talking to people there, people who want the chance

:36:54. > :36:58.not just for employment but want their kids to have a decent

:36:58. > :37:01.education, move on and to better themselves. It's that kind of

:37:01. > :37:06.complacency and disdain towards people in Inverclyde which I think

:37:06. > :37:09.found expression in a determination to vote Labour this evening. The

:37:09. > :37:14.votes are being counted, let's wait and see, but let's introduce some

:37:14. > :37:20.realism. I was elected six months after the greatest Labour victory

:37:20. > :37:23.in the 20th century, 1997. My majority was 2500 after my

:37:23. > :37:27.predecessor got an 18,000 majority at the very height of Labour's

:37:27. > :37:31.popularity. If Labour, coming off the back of what were dreadful

:37:31. > :37:36.results for the Labour Party just four or five weeks ago, are able to

:37:36. > :37:40.hold this seat healthily, then it will be a significant moment. It's

:37:40. > :37:46.right that Alex Salmond came to Inverclyde seven times, but let's

:37:46. > :37:49.see whether his bandwagon got driven into the ditch. Labour in

:37:49. > :37:59.crisis a month ago, you seem to suggest that if you do hold this

:37:59. > :38:01.

:38:01. > :38:06.If we are successful, and led Latency, it will be tribute to that

:38:06. > :38:10.many members have been working hard. It will be a huge tribute to Ian

:38:10. > :38:14.McKenzie. He is a local man like David Cairns and took great pride

:38:14. > :38:18.in telling all of us he was the first person from Greenock to

:38:18. > :38:22.actually represent the people of the up. He did his apprenticeship

:38:22. > :38:29.there, he worked for IBM for 20 years. He is a local man who

:38:29. > :38:32.understand local concerns. If we are successful this evening. I

:38:32. > :38:35.think there will be important lessons we need to learn, because

:38:35. > :38:40.it will represent but one step in what will need to be a longer

:38:40. > :38:45.journey for the people of Scotland. 45% turnout. There has been a lot

:38:45. > :38:49.of work from the Labour Party but also from the SNP. You had an awful

:38:49. > :38:54.lot of people in that constituency working very hard. What does that

:38:54. > :39:00.turnout suggests the you? It would tend to indicate that a vote share

:39:00. > :39:07.has gone up. We may be heading to double the votes here we had in

:39:07. > :39:12.2010. Remember, this is a Westminster contests. Although

:39:12. > :39:17.Douglas Alexander was trying to say earlier this was an SNP seat

:39:17. > :39:21.because of the parliamentary results. It isn't. There is more

:39:21. > :39:25.than a 14,000 Labour majority. If Labour failed to learn the lesson

:39:25. > :39:29.of the difference had been Holyrood in Westminster voting, I am

:39:29. > :39:36.delighted. If we have close to a possibly double our share of the

:39:36. > :39:41.vote, if we have taken the Labour majority down from perhaps 14,000

:39:41. > :39:46.to 5000, that would represent a huge step forward in Westminster

:39:46. > :39:51.voting terms. What does it tell us about Alex Salmond's personal

:39:51. > :39:57.popularity, because he was given a large amount of the credit for what

:39:57. > :40:01.was a historic election victory only a month ago. He has been in

:40:01. > :40:07.the constituency six or seven times. He has even been at polling

:40:07. > :40:13.stations this evening. With the kind of momentum he has is a leader,

:40:13. > :40:18.he could win a seat like Inverclyde? Remember, in a Holyrood

:40:18. > :40:25.victory you're talking about, this is one of the 15 seats in Scotland

:40:25. > :40:29.Labour-held. This is a Westminster contests. There are different

:40:29. > :40:34.boundaries but it is a Westminster seat with a 14,000 majority. If

:40:34. > :40:38.that majority is down by perhaps two thirds, as per vote share has

:40:38. > :40:44.doubled, if that momentum has continued it would be a fantastic

:40:44. > :40:49.result. Bed and Alex Salmond send out an e-mail that was late, to

:40:49. > :40:57.your own members, saying we will win this by-election? And his own

:40:57. > :41:00.words, we will win this by-election. I will just say, doing X Y and Z,

:41:00. > :41:06.you do everything you can to motivate your own members in the

:41:06. > :41:10.run-up to polling day. I would imagine Labour had similar rebels.

:41:10. > :41:15.Buzzing up students from all parts of England, of course you do

:41:16. > :41:19.everything you can to maximise your report. That is what Labour did,

:41:19. > :41:26.what we did, and we think a vote share will be almost doubled in the

:41:26. > :41:29.seat. That would continue her momentum. Jo Swinson, the Liberal

:41:30. > :41:33.Democrats do not take this context -- contests Edith et al. The other

:41:33. > :41:37.main candidates had their candidates in place shortly after

:41:37. > :41:44.that campaign began and you were struggling to find someone. He

:41:44. > :41:47.eventually found a 20-year-old Glasgow University student. I think

:41:47. > :41:52.you're suggesting that fielding a young candidate is not taking the

:41:52. > :41:57.people of Inverclyde seriously. finding a candidate suggests a

:41:57. > :42:01.problem with the party. We found an excellent candidate and she ran a

:42:01. > :42:05.campaign that was enthusiastic and energetic, to be a voice of the

:42:05. > :42:11.people of Inverclyde, I think that offer something that was fresh and

:42:11. > :42:17.different. Where was Nick Clegg? For a significant jump up the

:42:17. > :42:20.campaign he was in Brazil on a diplomatic trade mission. He is the

:42:20. > :42:28.deputy Prime Minister and has a lot of things to do. Where is Vince

:42:28. > :42:32.Cable? He also had a lot of business to do. Chris Huhne?

:42:32. > :42:38.have cabinet ministers are busy doing their job. Ming Campbell?

:42:38. > :42:44.Charles Kennedy? I was there, George Lyon was there, we have

:42:44. > :42:48.plenty of support and plenty of parliamentarians. David Steel even?

:42:48. > :42:53.We had plenty of parliamentarians who went to Inverclyde, we fought a

:42:53. > :42:58.short campaign which was focused on messages about the regeneration and

:42:58. > :43:01.jobs, which we have hardly touched on already. It was not a campaign

:43:02. > :43:07.where we were expecting a massive swell of support. Are you proud of

:43:07. > :43:10.the campaign? I am proud of it. We got it with an excellent campaign -

:43:10. > :43:15.- candidate and they may not get the result we wanted, but they do

:43:15. > :43:17.nothing that is any reflection on the candidates. It is a reflection

:43:17. > :43:23.on a closer race that it was perceived to be between Labour and

:43:23. > :43:28.the SNP. And let's be honest about it, we had a difficult result last

:43:28. > :43:31.month and it is still very soon after it. To expect we could put

:43:31. > :43:36.all of that into reverse in a few weeks is expecting too much. What

:43:36. > :43:44.we are doing is listening, and that is what we were doing in Inverclyde.

:43:44. > :43:48.The got on to doorsteps and listen to people's concerns. Your campaign

:43:48. > :43:52.would be very lonely indeed without you and Annabel Goldie. What does

:43:52. > :43:56.that say about the Conservative campaign? We took it very seriously.

:43:56. > :44:01.A candidate was out and about, we knocked on thousands of doors

:44:01. > :44:07.throughout the campaign, and Annabel Goldie played a vigorous

:44:07. > :44:12.campaign as you would expect it to do. It was a good campaign, based

:44:12. > :44:18.primarily on local issues. David is very heavily involved in the

:44:18. > :44:22.regeneration of the net. couldn't find a cabinet minister?

:44:22. > :44:29.What is clear to me and everyone in the Conservative Party is that

:44:29. > :44:32.India up, there is a real mood at for regeneration in the area. We

:44:32. > :44:36.participated in the debate for that, and played a full part in all of

:44:36. > :44:41.the debate. Those people might have expected the Conservatives do not

:44:41. > :44:45.be too keen on it, with unions, pensions and all that, we played a

:44:46. > :44:51.full part. One thing that struck me in your campaign was he spent a lot

:44:51. > :44:54.of time attacking the SNP has said that the Labour Party. David Wilson

:44:54. > :44:57.warned about the potential problems with independence. Is that the

:44:57. > :45:02.function of the fact that the Conservatives and Labour are

:45:02. > :45:05.effectively in a coalition when it comes to local elections? Won the

:45:05. > :45:10.area in which Labour and the Conservatives do work together is

:45:10. > :45:12.with respect to the unions. We're both Unionist parties who want to

:45:12. > :45:18.see Scotland remain in the United Kingdom, as do the Liberal

:45:18. > :45:24.Democrats. You would prefer Labour to win us rather than the SNP?

:45:24. > :45:27.were fighting for every vote for ourselves. Who did you want to win?

:45:28. > :45:32.What we wanted to do was to fight the good Conservative campaign and

:45:32. > :45:35.I think we did so. We wanted to get every vote that we possibly could.

:45:35. > :45:40.I think David has performed strongly. One thing that became

:45:40. > :45:43.clear to us during the election was that there are where Conservatives

:45:43. > :45:47.to in the recent Scottish Parliament elections had voted SNP,

:45:47. > :45:51.and they were extremely concerned that the outcome of that election.

:45:52. > :45:57.The SNP obtained a majority when everyone said it was not possible

:45:57. > :46:01.to obtain a majority in a Scottish Parliament. They then found a very

:46:01. > :46:06.significant change in the First Minister, from the point before the

:46:06. > :46:09.election, where he had to build a consensus on issues, to a point

:46:09. > :46:18.after the election where there seemed to be no checks and balances.

:46:18. > :46:23.Douglas Alexander, the people you had up, yourself and Gordon Brown

:46:23. > :46:27.and the Miliband. What does that tell us about what the Labour Party

:46:27. > :46:33.didn't 13 years of government, that the seat as safe as Inverclyde is

:46:33. > :46:37.now in peril? It shows we do not take anyone for granted. When you

:46:37. > :46:41.have elected MSPs for the Scottish National Party saying you have to

:46:41. > :46:44.take jabs after campaigning Port Glasgow, that speaks to a distain

:46:44. > :46:47.and contempt for people which I think is one of the reasons they

:46:47. > :46:54.have still done has campaigned despite starting the campaign with

:46:54. > :46:57.all the momentum and expectation. We had a choice, do we take

:46:57. > :47:01.seriously the task we need to engage in, which is to work to win

:47:01. > :47:05.every board not just in one part of Scotland but all across Scotland.

:47:05. > :47:11.Do you therefore deploy people from Scotland who are known to work hard

:47:11. > :47:14.to deliver that vote? People like John Prescott, who brought the tea

:47:14. > :47:21.mobile to Greenock. Do we take people seriously and engage in that

:47:21. > :47:25.discussion. That is exactly what we have done recently. Our initial

:47:25. > :47:31.canvass returns indicated that that the SNP were leading in the seat by

:47:31. > :47:34.2% just four or five weeks ago, they have a majority just recently.

:47:34. > :47:37.We had our backs against the wall and his campaign. We were

:47:37. > :47:42.determined to fight and to work hard for the people of Inverclyde

:47:42. > :47:45.and to earn their support. If we're successful this evening, it is not

:47:45. > :47:48.because we were entitled to that support. It is because we have

:47:48. > :47:56.learned that with a local candidate is prepared to do a good job for

:47:56. > :48:00.the people of Inverclyde. Where you essentially outmanoeuvred? Labour

:48:00. > :48:05.is talking about the can as big as pretending this was an SNP seat.

:48:05. > :48:12.Let's remember David Cairns added 14 1/2 1000 majority. A solid

:48:12. > :48:18.majority, well over 50% of the vote. We polled 17 1/2 per cent of the

:48:18. > :48:21.vote in 2010. We had to put a huge amount of effort into this. This

:48:21. > :48:27.was just the carry-forward or momentum we had, and Douglas

:48:27. > :48:32.Alexander is right, some of the men -- momentum is stuff we build up. I

:48:32. > :48:39.think we will do that tonight with a huge rise in issue of the vote,

:48:39. > :48:44.and I suspect we also see... There are no prizes for second place in

:48:44. > :48:49.by-elections, you either win or you lose some. I would obviously prefer

:48:49. > :48:52.we win, but this is a Labour seat, and if Labour continue to pretend

:48:52. > :48:56.there is no difference what Jean Holyrood in Westminster elections,

:48:56. > :48:59.Labour will continue to lose elections. We recognise the

:48:59. > :49:04.difference which is why we recognise there is a 17.5 per cent

:49:04. > :49:14.vote for us, and Labour have over 50%, and we have to work very hard

:49:14. > :49:19.indeed here. It is clear what the mood of the panel is here. More

:49:19. > :49:26.with the panel later on, back here for now.

:49:26. > :49:31.Let's bring in a lot a beggar who is down in Greenock. Are you there?

:49:31. > :49:34.Yes, I am. The Liberal Democrat candidate has just arrived to a

:49:34. > :49:42.smattering of applause but it is not looking good for them tonight.

:49:42. > :49:45.Labour, and with the is Gemma Doyle, the MP for West Dunbartonshire.

:49:45. > :49:50.Then there seemed to have abated in the labour camp. Are you quietly

:49:50. > :49:54.confident? We don't have the result yet, but certainly if, as some

:49:54. > :49:59.people are predicting, it looks like it may well be a good night

:50:00. > :50:06.for the Labour Party. You have had to work really hard for it despite

:50:06. > :50:13.having this massive 14,500 majority. If you look at the results from May,

:50:13. > :50:17.the SNP should have had a majority of about 1000 in this election. We

:50:17. > :50:20.have worked very hard for every single vote. We have not taken any

:50:20. > :50:26.voters from granted a tall, and we have been out knocking on every

:50:26. > :50:28.single door. Speaking to his many voters as possible. That is

:50:28. > :50:34.something you must have learned from the Scottish elections when it

:50:34. > :50:38.seemed as if Labour thought they could just turn up. I am not sure

:50:38. > :50:42.that is the case. There were many hard-fought campaigns and many

:50:42. > :50:48.great Labour candidate to work very hard. Yes, there were lessons to be

:50:48. > :50:53.learned from that campaign. It looks like tonight might be i is

:50:53. > :50:57.all that we can really build on. is not exactly a result that you

:50:57. > :51:03.can build on because it was years really anyway. This has been a

:51:03. > :51:09.Labour seat for 80 years. Where does Labour go from here? Obviously,

:51:09. > :51:14.you have had to fight for every vote and not be complacent. This

:51:14. > :51:19.state, this result tonight was the SNP's Toulouse. It looked at the

:51:19. > :51:28.start of the campaign... clarify this: it is your estate. It

:51:28. > :51:33.is not the SNP's Toulouse. They certainly haven't smashed any

:51:33. > :51:38.Labour majority. If you look at the most recent election that happened

:51:38. > :51:42.here, you're only as good as your last election. If you look at the

:51:42. > :51:48.results from May, the SNP should have had a notional majority of

:51:48. > :51:51.1000. It was very much the us to win. We have had at Alex Salmond

:51:51. > :51:56.here seven times now, and there are stories of him out at polling

:51:56. > :52:00.stations begging voters the going in vote SNP is the big. It really

:52:01. > :52:04.is an embarrassment for him, I think. Perhaps not an embarrassment

:52:04. > :52:10.for the SNP in many respects because obviously they are here

:52:10. > :52:13.just to try to win votes and hope that they do that. And people vote

:52:13. > :52:17.one way and a Holyrood election and bought the other way at Westminster.

:52:17. > :52:20.The Scottish election is testament to that, is that not your

:52:20. > :52:25.experience? Yes, we're dealing with a sophisticated electorate who

:52:25. > :52:31.think carefully about how their voting at each election. People do

:52:31. > :52:36.raise various issues on the doorsteps. Alex Salmond thought he

:52:36. > :52:40.was going to win a seat. He had written to local members of the SNP

:52:40. > :52:44.saying we were going to win. In Inverclyde they were very confident,

:52:44. > :52:49.and I think the voters will punish them for that arrogance this

:52:49. > :52:55.evening. Just the final word about David Cairns. You worked alongside

:52:55. > :53:00.him and had been on doorsteps. This is a night to remember him as well?

:53:00. > :53:04.It is very sad that we're having this by-election. David Cairns was

:53:04. > :53:08.a very well respected MP, and a very good man. Going round the

:53:08. > :53:18.doors and hearing the stories of how he had helped people, and

:53:18. > :53:26.

:53:26. > :53:31.really how sad people where to have We have exciting news from

:53:31. > :53:40.Edinburgh. Councillors have been meeting to make a decision about

:53:40. > :53:46.what they want to do about the trouble over the Edinburgh tram at

:53:46. > :53:54.scheme. The council is short of ideas about where to find the money

:53:54. > :54:00.needed to. Our correspondent was at the meeting. The meeting lasted

:54:00. > :54:07.five hours. It was a marathon session. That is nothing compared

:54:07. > :54:13.to what it could be here! Do not expect any sympathy. The decision

:54:13. > :54:17.at the end of it all, as predicted, the council has officially adopted

:54:17. > :54:23.St Andrews Square as the preferred option for the tram project. The

:54:23. > :54:28.idea that they owe this to complete the line from Edinburgh airport

:54:28. > :54:34.past he market, along Shandwick Place were a lot of work needs to

:54:34. > :54:40.be done, driving up the tram tracks on Princes Street and heading to

:54:40. > :54:46.said Andrew Square. But how are they going to pay it? As of now, we

:54:46. > :54:50.do not know. What will happen next is that the new chief Executive of

:54:50. > :54:54.Edinburgh City Council will be sent to the Scottish government to try

:54:54. > :55:01.to raise the cash from them. As you have already said, the Scottish

:55:01. > :55:05.government has already said, it has been absolutely clear all the way

:55:05. > :55:15.along, that it is not prepared to find extra funding from taxpayers

:55:15. > :55:18.

:55:18. > :55:22.across Scotland. So we expect there chief Executive of Edinburgh City

:55:22. > :55:25.Council to are stored on to business rates money. If that does

:55:25. > :55:32.not happen, the council will have to find some way of borrowing the

:55:32. > :55:38.cash. The decision is made, how it will be paid for remains to be seen.

:55:38. > :55:42.I understand that some of the trade unions representing bus drivers

:55:42. > :55:50.were picketing the meeting today because they are worried that in

:55:50. > :55:56.one way or another, the profits of Edinburgh's bus company could end

:55:56. > :56:03.up being used it to subsidise this tramp project. Without trying to do

:56:03. > :56:09.a PR job for Lothian bosses, unquestionably, the local bus

:56:09. > :56:13.company is successful and popular. There is a great deal of concern

:56:14. > :56:23.among supporters in Edinburgh that profits from the bus company could

:56:24. > :56:24.

:56:24. > :56:27.be used to pay for a loss-making tram at service. Councillors were

:56:27. > :56:35.told that claims that lobbying buses would be fleeced a to pay for

:56:35. > :56:39.the trams have been overstated. Councillors were told that for

:56:39. > :56:43.every �100 million of revenue wedge to the council would have to find

:56:43. > :56:53.to pay for cancellation of the tram scheme, council tax bills would

:56:53. > :56:54.

:56:54. > :57:02.have to rise by 45%. That puts things sharply into focus. The is

:57:02. > :57:07.was coming from the officials? There have been suggestions that it

:57:07. > :57:14.was rather obviously in the interests of the officials to say

:57:14. > :57:20.that cancellation would be very expensive. That has been the

:57:20. > :57:25.suspicion from the outset. I think, in fairness, even the Liberal

:57:25. > :57:34.Democrat councillors will have suspected that council officials

:57:34. > :57:37.were playing there handout rather more strongly than they ought to. -

:57:37. > :57:41.- a play their hand. We are now being told that there is a drop-

:57:41. > :57:46.dead date of the 1st September. This was agreed during the

:57:46. > :57:50.mediation process which went on earlier in the year. I am sure the

:57:50. > :57:58.citizens of Edinburgh will have views on who should be dropping

:57:58. > :58:03.dead! The 1st September has been named as the contractors, of the

:58:03. > :58:10.council is not in a position to save where they won the lines to go

:58:10. > :58:18.to buy them, or they do not know how to fund it, we are told this

:58:18. > :58:24.could all end up in the courts. Gordon McKenzie, the Liberal

:58:24. > :58:29.Democrat transport convener says that is the date, but we have built

:58:29. > :58:39.up some good will and they could go either side of that. But the phrase

:58:39. > :58:43.

:58:43. > :58:49.drop-dead date will focus minds very firmly. Does this mean that

:58:49. > :58:58.all the parties, or at least the party's law governing the council,

:58:59. > :59:07.are signed up to this? Someone from the SNP was on the programme the

:59:07. > :59:10.other night saying that it was nothing to do with them. The SNP

:59:10. > :59:16.were arguing for a referendum to give the people of Edinburgh the

:59:16. > :59:20.opportunity to have their say. an unofficial poll is anything to

:59:20. > :59:26.go by, by a referendum would have resulted in an overwhelming

:59:26. > :59:36.cancellation vote. The SNP are still semi-detached from the

:59:36. > :59:46.mainstream the leadership of the council. They do not support

:59:46. > :59:48.

:59:48. > :59:53.triumphs. -- the tram project. But Labour saying that the decision has

:59:53. > :59:56.now been taken. Councillors today have been hugely embarrassed by

:59:56. > :00:03.coverage of the story outside Scotland. The very fact that it is

:00:03. > :00:09.being mentioned on BBC One on the one sure, in prime time, has

:00:09. > :00:13.concentrated minds. People in Edinburgh do not like seeing their

:00:13. > :00:17.city as a laughing stock. And Edinburgh is rapidly gaining the

:00:17. > :00:23.reputation because of this fiasco. They are more determined than ever

:00:23. > :00:28.to tried desperately to move us on once and for all. Thank you very

:00:28. > :00:36.much for that. Back To Remember and his

:00:36. > :00:42.politicians. -- back to Raymond.

:00:42. > :00:48.We are now joined by the Labour MP Tom Harris who used to be the

:00:48. > :00:54.former transport minister. Do you think it was a good idea for your

:00:54. > :01:00.party to a supporter of the tram project? No, I do not. I took a

:01:00. > :01:09.keen interest in the tram project when it was first mooted. After a

:01:09. > :01:14.briefing from my officials, I made it the judgment that had that

:01:14. > :01:19.particular scheme been put in front of me, I would not have approved it.

:01:19. > :01:27.Why? I was not convinced by the business case. If you are going to

:01:27. > :01:34.have a tram system, which cost a lot of money, you have to make sure

:01:34. > :01:44.that the benefits are going to stack up. I was not convinced that

:01:44. > :01:44.

:01:44. > :01:51.they did. I was not convinced about the model shift would happen in

:01:51. > :02:01.Edinburgh. Partly because they have a very popular bus service. The

:02:01. > :02:05.last of -- the last thing the rail industry needs is what is happening

:02:05. > :02:12.here, politicians going ahead with a light railway system that is over

:02:12. > :02:19.cost, over budget, over time, it scuppers the whole idea of a light

:02:20. > :02:27.rail project for other cities. There are no plans for a tram as in

:02:27. > :02:34.Inverclyde. You have set up a project which is all about

:02:34. > :02:39.examining what has gone so badly wrong with your party. It is about

:02:39. > :02:43.learning lessons and looking to the future. What we have done in

:02:43. > :02:48.Inverclyde, and I think we have learned a lesson from the Scottish

:02:48. > :02:52.Parliament elections, I admit that our campaign for the Scottish

:02:52. > :02:57.Parliament elections was too negative. It was not a good enough

:02:57. > :03:05.campaign. We have run a very positive campaign in Inverclyde. We

:03:05. > :03:13.have run it on jobs, promoting Greenock and Inverclyde, in a very

:03:13. > :03:21.positive way. And I think that has appealed to voters. I think the SNP

:03:21. > :03:28.candidate, if not the wider campaign, has been disgraceful. You

:03:28. > :03:36.cannot do during a dry election suddenly announce -- during by

:03:36. > :03:46.election suddenly announce that one candidate or another has a plan to

:03:46. > :03:52.make people redundant. You can did it is a local council leader. Anne

:03:52. > :03:56.McLaughlin, the SNP candidate, suggested that the Labour candidate

:03:56. > :04:06.is planning with other councillors are to make people compulsorily

:04:06. > :04:12.

:04:12. > :04:17.redundant. They did not suggest it, it was Uplyme. So there would

:04:17. > :04:21.definitely have been compulsory redundancies in Inverclyde? Lots of

:04:21. > :04:30.authorities have lots of plants, some of them will come to fruition.

:04:30. > :04:37.But you are saying it was a definite plan? Local authorities

:04:37. > :04:47.are doing everything they can. This level is very clear that employees

:04:47. > :04:49.

:04:49. > :04:58.are being specified for compulsory redundancy. That was not a negative.

:04:58. > :05:05.In an enterprise zone, the message should be entirely positive. In by

:05:05. > :05:13.election, something as explosive as a plan to sack workers, it would be

:05:13. > :05:19.extraordinary if a candidate do not use that. She did get the council

:05:19. > :05:24.leader to say that would not happen. I'd like an McLaughlan personally,

:05:24. > :05:29.but I think the idea that she has had any influence whatsoever in

:05:29. > :05:36.Inverclyde council is pushing it a little bit. What we have got here

:05:36. > :05:42.is a new definition of positivity and negativity. We ran a positive

:05:42. > :05:48.campaign. I think tonight, we will see the fruits of that campaign.

:05:48. > :05:53.is not very positive when the your supporters are denying that am

:05:53. > :06:03.McLaughlan even came from Inverclyde. -- Anne McLaughlin.

:06:03. > :06:03.

:06:03. > :06:08.That personal attack was appalling. She was born here, she lived here.

:06:08. > :06:13.She went to Glasgow for Education and to work. That personal attack

:06:13. > :06:17.was appalling. What Anne McLaughlin did in terms of the sackings raised

:06:17. > :06:22.in that memo was to raise a perfectly legitimate political

:06:22. > :06:30.issue. The Labour Party never said at any point that an McLaughlan was

:06:30. > :06:38.not from Port Glasgow because she is. -- Anne McLaughlin. We pointed

:06:38. > :06:43.out that the only reason Anne McLaughlin was available was

:06:43. > :06:48.because she had been rejected by her own party in Glasgow and then

:06:48. > :06:58.the voters. That is why she was standing in Inverclyde. She was on

:06:58. > :06:58.

:06:58. > :07:06.the list... She was pipped by your party at No. 8. Sue contested the

:07:06. > :07:12.first-past-the-post seat. That is not rejection. George Swinton your

:07:12. > :07:22.candidate was not from Inverclyde. What kind of campaign did you run?

:07:22. > :07:30.-- Jo Swinson. It was setting out our candidate as being a fresh

:07:30. > :07:33.voice for Inverclyde, highlighting the issue about jobs and

:07:33. > :07:38.regeneration. I was in the constituency a lot during the

:07:38. > :07:48.campaign, one thing was very clear, and the bigger issue was

:07:48. > :07:57.

:07:57. > :08:01.unemployment, particularly youth Obviously, one MP on their own...

:08:01. > :08:05.You are all promising jobs but you cannot deliver them. The coalition

:08:05. > :08:10.government is introducing the work programme to help people get back

:08:10. > :08:14.into work. That is happening through their Department of work

:08:14. > :08:21.and pensions. There are some issues around work and enterprise, some of

:08:21. > :08:26.those are more this Scotland's. Their enterprise zones down south,

:08:26. > :08:30.which I think should be emulated within the Scottish context by the

:08:30. > :08:35.Scottish government. These are things which can be done, having a

:08:35. > :08:39.very strong voice standing up at Westminster, we have heard a little

:08:39. > :08:43.bit on this programme from the commentators, like the areas like

:08:43. > :08:46.Inverclyde can be talked down. There can be at him and gloom

:08:46. > :08:49.picture that its painted by the media and it is important that

:08:49. > :08:53.these places can have representatives that can stand up

:08:53. > :08:58.for them and challenge that and make sure there is a clear voice

:08:58. > :09:03.for areas within the Westminster Parliament and more widely. David

:09:03. > :09:08.Mundell, you are in government, you might think this is talking it down,

:09:08. > :09:12.but looking at statistics, if you look at Inverclyde council report,

:09:12. > :09:17.it says the economic future of the area is in jeopardy because there

:09:17. > :09:21.is high unemployment and it is leaking young and well educated

:09:21. > :09:28.people. What will you do for people in Down who have received attention

:09:28. > :09:36.over the last few weeks and now want action? We are very focused on

:09:36. > :09:43.the use unemployment. There was an innovative events in the event at

:09:43. > :09:46.which is not too different in net terms of issues it faces from

:09:46. > :09:51.Inverclyde, trying to bring together everybody with interests

:09:51. > :09:54.in youth unemployment. It is not something you, it is something that

:09:54. > :10:03.has been getting progressively worse. It is something for which

:10:03. > :10:07.there is not a silver bullet, but bringing all the governments

:10:07. > :10:13.together, it is something that we can and must tackle. We are very

:10:13. > :10:18.determined to do this. We hope to do this with the work programme

:10:18. > :10:24.which will be about supporting key book -- people, particularly those

:10:25. > :10:29.in difficult personal circumstances, into work. Explain that to me. If I

:10:29. > :10:31.am an 18-year-old in Port Glasgow who left school at 16, has not

:10:31. > :10:36.worked, is currently dependent on benefits and does not have much

:10:36. > :10:41.hope of getting a job very soon, these are individuals I have spoken

:10:41. > :10:45.to, how are you going to help me in the next few weeks or months, or

:10:45. > :10:50.stop me spending bit rest of my life on the dole? We are going to

:10:50. > :10:55.bring forward programmes which help work experience, programmes which

:10:55. > :11:03.help people do voluntary work without the benefits being cut,

:11:03. > :11:10.which is currently the case,... 43? No, it is an opportunity for

:11:10. > :11:14.experience. Most people are going to work, they discover they have

:11:14. > :11:17.not had any experience. We are looking at families who are maybe

:11:17. > :11:23.in a third generation where nobody in the household has worked. The

:11:23. > :11:28.need support and mentoring, the need help in terms of getting into

:11:28. > :11:34.the labour market. That is what Our Work programme is about, it is the

:11:34. > :11:40.most radical change in support for people into work for one generation.

:11:40. > :11:44.Stewart Hosie, there has been talk about re industrialising this part

:11:44. > :11:48.of Scotland, when are those jobs going to come to Inverclyde?

:11:48. > :11:54.thing we need to do is build on what David said, which is the soft

:11:54. > :11:59.skills. Through apprenticeships, which the Scottish government

:11:59. > :12:05.provide, and then work incredibly hard, that his local authority,

:12:05. > :12:11.enterprise bodies, to bring all the companies to make the green

:12:11. > :12:17.technology of the future. Just like my constituency in Dundee,

:12:17. > :12:19.Inverclyde has huge opportunity and capacity to do that. These are

:12:19. > :12:23.private investment decisions, all I can tell you is a Scottish

:12:23. > :12:27.government and many other bodies are working extraordinarily hard to

:12:27. > :12:31.bring those companies to various parts of Scotland, to kick-start

:12:31. > :12:37.that re industrialisation, to provide the job starts that the

:12:37. > :12:42.young people we are speaking about need. Labour have had no answers

:12:42. > :12:46.about many people in Inverclyde when it comes to get unemployment.

:12:46. > :12:49.There are young people who are out of work and have been for some time,

:12:49. > :12:55.psychologically they do not think they will enter the labour market

:12:55. > :13:02.any time soon. I think people have had enough of politicians blaming

:13:02. > :13:06.other people for this. I hope that after all the fuss of this by-

:13:06. > :13:09.election and it is behind us, whoever wins, if the Scottish

:13:09. > :13:13.government and the UK Government come forward with proposals that

:13:13. > :13:19.will genuinely make a difference in Inverclyde, then I hope the Labour

:13:19. > :13:22.Party would give full support to those initiatives. A lot of parts

:13:22. > :13:28.of Inverclyde, I have spent a lot of time there in the last three

:13:28. > :13:32.weeks, it is similar to part of my constituency, but they have very

:13:32. > :13:38.specific problems. Even today, walking down what used to be the

:13:38. > :13:45.high street, shocked at the level off... Every second shop is a

:13:45. > :13:50.charity shop, until you get to the Mall. There are a lot of bargain

:13:50. > :13:55.shops. There is clearly a structural problem in terms of

:13:55. > :13:59.poverty in Inverclyde. The Labour Party, along with other parties,

:13:59. > :14:04.have to take responsibility for that and work together and not make

:14:05. > :14:11.it a political football. That's all for the panel for the moment.

:14:11. > :14:14.Gordon, back to you. George Kerevan, we will let you sit

:14:14. > :14:20.-- reply to some of the comments made about you earlier. Depending

:14:20. > :14:28.on how this pans out, you may well be able to deliver a seminar paper

:14:28. > :14:31.on it! I just wanted to stop for a moment and remember why this by-

:14:32. > :14:39.election is taking place, it is because of the very sad and

:14:39. > :14:44.untimely death of David Cairns. Lorraine Davidson, he was quite an

:14:44. > :14:48.extraordinary MP, was he not? There are a few MPs who have to have an

:14:48. > :14:52.act of parliament passed in order to be a Member of Parliament.

:14:52. > :14:57.for David Cairns was elected, the law had to be changed because he

:14:57. > :15:00.was a priest and priests at that point we are not allowed to stand

:15:00. > :15:07.for the UK parliament, there had to be an act of parliament put through

:15:07. > :15:11.to allow him to become the Labour candidate. I think he was a

:15:11. > :15:17.politician who had great empathy for the people in his constituency,

:15:17. > :15:22.he worked incredibly hard, he rose to ministerial office, we saw him

:15:22. > :15:26.resign. Sometimes, with resignations, you get people having

:15:26. > :15:30.his refits and storming out and charging to the nearest television

:15:30. > :15:35.camera and it is all about them, with David Cairns there was a great

:15:35. > :15:41.deal of sorrow behind his resignation. Very rarely, do you

:15:41. > :15:46.see resignations like this. Whether they agreed with him on Gordon

:15:46. > :15:54.Brown's record or not, people saw this as not one that was about him,

:15:54. > :15:59.but was about... After he did that, an act that would normally be in

:15:59. > :16:05.the Labour Party, he increased his majority? Its he did, yes. That

:16:05. > :16:09.just shows the kind of MP that he was. The background of being a

:16:09. > :16:13.priest and being able to understand and reach out to people, but also

:16:13. > :16:18.been an extremely intelligent man and having a big vision and having

:16:18. > :16:26.the kind of interest that he had in things like broadcasting, he really

:16:26. > :16:30.was a huge asset to the Labour Party at national and local level.

:16:30. > :16:35.Michael White, he did should to prominence when he resigned, he was

:16:35. > :16:38.only minister to resign in protest at the problems with Gordon Brown's

:16:38. > :16:42.leadership. You could argue if a few more of them had had the same

:16:42. > :16:47.courage of their convictions, the political map of Britain might look

:16:47. > :16:52.different. It might be, although personally I did not think there

:16:52. > :16:57.was much chance of it. I decided that Gordon Brown was the settled

:16:57. > :17:03.will of the British Labour Party in Parliament. They were not going to

:17:03. > :17:08.change him and David Miliband was not going to challenge him. Of all,

:17:08. > :17:13.as Lorraine has said, David Cairns was an interesting figure. I had

:17:13. > :17:18.forgotten that he was a priest, people do not do that. Politicians

:17:18. > :17:22.do not often resign, perhaps sometimes they should, but I do not

:17:22. > :17:26.think it would make much difference. You do admire people who say that

:17:26. > :17:32.they will do this because they feel it is right. That is always

:17:32. > :17:37.admirable. Not always effective practical politics. I want to talk

:17:37. > :17:42.about about the economy. I am curious, Michael, as to what

:17:42. > :17:47.atmosphere is like Denford you are. There has been endless debate about

:17:47. > :17:54.the policies that the coalition government are cutting in the

:17:54. > :17:58.deficit, both down there and up here. One gets the sense that this

:17:58. > :18:04.is an argument which has not been decided, the arguments are up in

:18:04. > :18:07.the ear. People are, understandably, confused about whether to believe

:18:07. > :18:13.it whether what this government is doing is right or whether to

:18:13. > :18:17.believe Ed Balls. How do you make up your mind between the two?

:18:17. > :18:21.watched Ed Balls debating in the Commons this week with George

:18:21. > :18:29.Osborne, listening to them both I thought that Ed Balls was much more

:18:29. > :18:33.aggressive. A pretty formidable politician. He always over does it.

:18:33. > :18:38.He makes the case for saying we are taking too much money out of the

:18:38. > :18:41.economy, too quickly, when the economy has not recovered. It is

:18:41. > :18:47.like taking away the medicine before the temperature is down. He

:18:47. > :18:52.is right about that, the risks are enormous. On the other hand,

:18:52. > :18:56.Osborne says look at the Greeks, we have got to get the debt down. He

:18:56. > :19:01.exaggerates the point, but it does not mean to say he grossly

:19:01. > :19:04.exaggerated. It does not mean he has got a bit of a point. I went

:19:04. > :19:10.down to Crawley in Sussex where several big department stores are

:19:10. > :19:18.shutting down. Many chain stores are finally giving up after three

:19:18. > :19:21.years of so recession. It is a mixed picture. You are talking

:19:21. > :19:27.about shop closures and charity shops in Inverclyde, it is not as

:19:27. > :19:34.bad as that but there were many closures and 50% off sales. People

:19:34. > :19:38.are nervous. I went to the demo today, the teachers demonstration,

:19:38. > :19:46.very well behaved, respectable. People wear a bit scared and

:19:46. > :19:52.uncertain. They were saying, hands of my pension! It is this confusion.

:19:52. > :19:56.The problems you have described in Crawley, I know it has been

:19:56. > :20:01.particularly in the news this week, but you will find similar problems

:20:01. > :20:05.in high-street up here, but then you see Mervyn King saying that I

:20:05. > :20:09.appreciate this is bad news for some of the shops, but we always

:20:09. > :20:15.said we wanted to rebalance the economy away from consumer debt

:20:15. > :20:20.towards exports. Frankly, if you're going to do that, you have got to

:20:21. > :20:24.cut retail spending. Actually, while this looks bad, it is all

:20:24. > :20:30.part of the plan. You can imagine people saying that maybe he has got

:20:30. > :20:36.a point. When you have a recession, the weaker brethren gets shaken out

:20:36. > :20:41.just as people lose jobs. You can overdo it. In hindsight, people say

:20:41. > :20:45.that what ever you thought of Margaret Thatcher, we lost a lot of

:20:45. > :20:51.manufacturing firms which we did not need to lose. People exaggerate

:20:51. > :20:55.the weakness of British Engineering, but what we have got is very good.

:20:55. > :21:01.Some hi-tech stuff is a terrific. It does not create the jobs it used

:21:01. > :21:05.to, it is much more capital intensive and robotic. Scotland has

:21:05. > :21:09.got its share of that, but neither Scotland or England has got enough.

:21:09. > :21:15.The coalition will find it much harder to rebalance that that will

:21:15. > :21:20.to shut a few chain stores. This business about being confused,

:21:20. > :21:24.maybe it is just me, the real sense you got looking at the coverage of

:21:24. > :21:27.the Inverclyde by-election was that people were very concerned about

:21:27. > :21:33.jobs and are worried and confused what to make of the arguments. I

:21:33. > :21:38.came across a thing the other day, there was at his cystic put out by

:21:38. > :21:45.the Scottish government, what they showed was that 18,000 fewer public

:21:45. > :21:50.service jobs in this column now than a year ago. 15,000 more

:21:50. > :21:55.private sector jobs. Actually, does that mean George Osborne has got

:21:55. > :22:02.up.? 15 was always that you could cut the public sector quite heavily

:22:02. > :22:05.because private sector would move in and make up the difference. The

:22:05. > :22:09.Scottish government press release did not say that, which is not

:22:09. > :22:16.surprising. It gets confusing. There is an issue about

:22:16. > :22:20.unemployment figures. Lot of economists and forecasters are

:22:20. > :22:24.struggling to reconcile the lack of growth in the economy with what is

:22:24. > :22:28.happening in the labour market. The two things do not seem to be in

:22:28. > :22:33.sync, they certainly do not seem to be following historic trends. There

:22:33. > :22:38.is another factor which is very much their in -- Inverclyde factor.

:22:38. > :22:44.We had population numbers today for Britain, Britain in the last five

:22:44. > :22:54.years, the population has grown by more than 3.5 million. There is a

:22:54. > :22:59.map you can look at one Michael White's website which shows... It

:22:59. > :23:03.Shoji by AB upgrade the population is growing and where it is not.

:23:03. > :23:06.There is a huge challenge for the SNP government in Edinburgh. The

:23:06. > :23:12.only part of the United Kingdom where population is falling, in

:23:12. > :23:22.that period, is Dumfries and Galloway, up through a Ayrshire, up

:23:22. > :23:24.

:23:24. > :23:34.to Inverclyde and Argyll and up to Population is declining but up to

:23:34. > :23:43.

:23:43. > :23:47.3%. Population increase is a factor in economic growth. Absolutely. And

:23:47. > :23:53.these areas are showing population decline. In that strip through the

:23:53. > :24:00.West of Scotland, the area at showing the fastest population

:24:00. > :24:04.decline is Inverclyde. That is a huge challenge. It does not help

:24:04. > :24:09.dealing with that challenge to have people like George going to

:24:09. > :24:18.Greenock saying that he did not see any brown faces and they look like

:24:18. > :24:22.the 1970s. I visit Adana a few weeks ago with a group of Indian

:24:22. > :24:27.entrepreneurs who all live locally. It was a dynamic ever. There are

:24:27. > :24:32.people in that area who are trying to bake things happen. Trying to

:24:32. > :24:38.make things turn around. I am trying to regenerate physical

:24:38. > :24:46.infrastructure. We were told to by the Scottish government that the

:24:46. > :24:55.funding is to be cut by 60%. That does not help. George, it did

:24:55. > :25:05.rather come over as if you were saying that the SNP attracts

:25:05. > :25:06.

:25:06. > :25:13.aspirational of waters. As having been brought up in a working-class

:25:13. > :25:20.scheme in Glasgow, I am not going to take any lectures on that.

:25:20. > :25:26.Clearly in May, the dramatic shift away from their traditional parties

:25:26. > :25:30.to the SNP was not necessarily a rush for independence, it was a

:25:30. > :25:40.desire and an aspiration to make Scotland better. A desire forgotten

:25:40. > :25:40.

:25:40. > :25:46.by Labour in office. In Inverclyde, there is a real structural problem.

:25:46. > :25:48.People are leading. Something has to be done about that. I know that

:25:48. > :25:53.people who are there are desperately trying to turn things

:25:53. > :25:57.around. I have met some wonderful young people in Inverclyde who

:25:57. > :26:02.would have wonderful careers anywhere else, but the jobs are not

:26:02. > :26:07.there. We need to do something fundamental. That is why I think

:26:07. > :26:11.the Scottish government's argument for shifting corporation tax to

:26:11. > :26:18.Walid good at using low were corporation tax to attract capital

:26:18. > :26:23.investment to places like Inverclyde could be the catalyst.

:26:23. > :26:32.will bring you in. I am slightly worried about losing Michael white

:26:32. > :26:42.again. Somebody in the Guardian brought an article the other day,

:26:42. > :26:48.was it you? A book about Vikings. I'm afraid it was me. You can see

:26:48. > :26:52.and er this Brown coming across my face. Whenever I write something

:26:52. > :27:01.which praises Alex Salmond to the hilt, as the most successful

:27:02. > :27:11.politician practising in the UK at the moment, my gut feelings remain

:27:12. > :27:12.

:27:12. > :27:20.the Unionist. Sorry to cut you off. We have got a problem with the

:27:20. > :27:27.sound. I was dying to hear the end of that story! They have got a

:27:27. > :27:33.technical problem on that line. sounded like a great pace and

:27:33. > :27:37.unfortunately high have a read it. -- a great piece. The gist of it

:27:37. > :27:41.was, he had read a book about Vikings and it made him think that

:27:41. > :27:47.you can see the world in lots of different ways and from loss of

:27:47. > :27:57.geographical perspectives and Sutherland actually means that the

:27:57. > :27:59.

:27:59. > :28:08.land of the South. From a perspective from someone -- of

:28:08. > :28:14.someone in Norway, it is quite far south and that made him think, I

:28:14. > :28:18.hope he cannot hear me, it made him think that if Scotland does go for

:28:18. > :28:28.independence, the world will not come crashing down. Is that

:28:28. > :28:30.

:28:30. > :28:35.correct? No, he still cannot hear me. Yes you can hear me! What I was

:28:35. > :28:40.saying is that my instincts are remain in favour of the Union and

:28:40. > :28:48.that is maybe what you would expect from an Englishman, except I am

:28:48. > :28:54.from Cornwall. Be that as it may, I've read this extraordinary book

:28:54. > :29:00.about the Vikings, not a provide book back -- not a profound book

:29:00. > :29:06.but a good one, and it reminds us that life does go on, even if we

:29:06. > :29:13.decide to separate. Sutherland is called Sutherland because it is

:29:13. > :29:18.south of Orkney and Shetland. The Earl of Orkney would have named it

:29:18. > :29:23.so. You live and learn, even at my age. If there is a deeper point

:29:23. > :29:28.here, I think perhaps a lot of people in Scotland and Wales,

:29:28. > :29:33.Northern Ireland, perhaps even the North of England, who are not based

:29:33. > :29:37.in London, one of the criticisms of the political set-up is that London

:29:37. > :29:41.does not have that ability to see things at the way that you have

:29:41. > :29:48.started to see things after reading a book. One example is that we have

:29:48. > :29:58.had this massive crisis to do with Greece over the past week, to do

:29:58. > :29:58.

:29:58. > :34:13.Apology for the loss of subtitles for 255 seconds

:34:13. > :34:18.Never break that barrier? That is an issue for us. We are quite open

:34:18. > :34:24.about that. We get about 41% in the Scottish Parliament election, but

:34:24. > :34:29.in this it is about 35%. If you think about the gap before, it was

:34:29. > :34:34.about double that. We have narrowed that significantly. It is ourselves

:34:34. > :34:39.or Labour in Scotland. The campaign has had mud-slinging beach to

:34:39. > :34:44.Labour and SNP. I do not agree with that. I think the sling more money

:34:44. > :34:48.than we do. They have a negative campaign at Holyrood. I think the

:34:48. > :34:54.campaign was actually pretty mindlessly parochial. There issues

:34:54. > :34:57.seem to be about the block that has lived here all his life. Even

:34:57. > :35:02.though David Cairns was a councillor in Lambeth when he was

:35:02. > :35:05.elected, the scene to discount that and attack the work candlelit

:35:06. > :35:11.personally because she has lived in Glasgow, because she had to leave

:35:11. > :35:16.for work. Things did not go your way when the Daily Record splashed

:35:16. > :35:22.the story that a Paisley MP said he needed jabs to come to Inverclyde.

:35:22. > :35:27.I am born in Paisley myself and some MPs have made comments about

:35:27. > :35:32.it Paisley being strained. There is banter that has been blown out of

:35:32. > :35:35.all proportion. I think it is the fact that Labour have a traditional

:35:35. > :35:40.vote here, their SNP is a party that does not have the same

:35:40. > :35:46.traditional base in Scotland. We have got to persuade people to vote

:35:46. > :35:51.for us, we cannot rely on a tribal fault which Labour can in certain

:35:51. > :35:58.parts of Scotland. We have eroded that. What will you learn from

:35:58. > :36:03.this? We will take away seats that are difficult to win in Inverclyde.

:36:03. > :36:08.This when he was only 1% less than in Glasgow East which their SNP

:36:08. > :36:18.took. This was one of the few seats in Scotland we did not win. This is

:36:18. > :36:20.

:36:20. > :36:24.fertile territory for their SNP and we can build on it. Thank you. As

:36:24. > :36:28.you hear there, it looks like Labour has held the seat. We are

:36:28. > :36:34.not sure about the majority just yet, but it does look like they

:36:34. > :36:39.have had their majority pretty well slashed. 14th 1,500 might be down

:36:39. > :36:45.to a few 1000. We will wait for the result in the next hour are so. --

:36:45. > :36:48.14,500. We are now in an odd situation

:36:48. > :36:53.where we do not officially know the result but their SNP have just said

:36:53. > :36:56.they lost that election. The air has been intelligence out there for

:36:56. > :37:01.some time, Stewart Hosie was talking about if they had slashed

:37:01. > :37:07.labour's majority to 5,000 from what Kenny Gibson was saying, it

:37:07. > :37:11.looks like Labour's majority is now in the 6,500 territory. I did not

:37:11. > :37:17.think I would say that this will be a disappointing night for the SNP.

:37:17. > :37:22.I did take the view it was a win, win situation for them. You will

:37:22. > :37:26.have a solid Labour seat majority. There have been real wobbles in the

:37:26. > :37:33.labour camp in the last day or two. They were saying that they would

:37:33. > :37:37.have lost this because their SNP were pulling ahead of them. If they

:37:37. > :37:43.have held this by 6,000, Labour will be breathing a huge sigh of

:37:43. > :37:48.relief. Let us remind people, we can now get the result from the

:37:48. > :37:53.2010 election. There it is. The picture that Kenny Gibson seems to

:37:53. > :37:59.be painting was that they have eaten into that majority, but they

:37:59. > :38:03.have not. But that is just what he is saying, it might be wrong. Not

:38:03. > :38:11.nearly enough to overturn Labour. It does not look like their SNP

:38:11. > :38:16.have taken this seat. It can go two ways in their analysis of this. You

:38:16. > :38:20.can say that, prior to last month, it was I given in Scottish politics

:38:20. > :38:24.that their SNP do much better in Scottish elections. They do not do

:38:24. > :38:30.well in Westminster elections. I have spoken to senior people in the

:38:30. > :38:34.party in London who were, worryingly, dismissive about the

:38:34. > :38:38.Holyrood result. These were English people saying that it all comes

:38:38. > :38:43.back to us for Westminster. That would be the wrong analysis for the

:38:43. > :38:46.-- for them to take. If Ed Miliband wakes up and says it is all right

:38:46. > :38:53.when it comes to us, it is those people in Scotland to cannot

:38:53. > :38:57.Hackett. I I ask an obvious question, a lot of us do not spend

:38:57. > :39:00.a lot of time at election counts and do not know what their

:39:00. > :39:08.mechanics are and how it happens. How is it that Kenny Gibson can

:39:08. > :39:14.know all of this? How does it work? Boxes come out of vans and you know

:39:14. > :39:19.where that boxers come from and you see the people from parties are

:39:19. > :39:24.allowed pretty close to the canteen tables and the can see the box from

:39:24. > :39:29.that particular scheme. They can see how many votes, out of it. If

:39:29. > :39:34.it is a Labour area, there are votes are stacking up, then you

:39:34. > :39:40.know that you have fought has come out. Unless you are in a situation

:39:40. > :39:46.like Glasgow -- Glasgow East. Here you would be looking for the

:39:46. > :39:50.traditional Labour areas, the votes physically stack up, rather than

:39:50. > :39:54.have the worry for Labour in this contest in that they do not have a

:39:54. > :39:59.strong leadership figure in place. Why should you come out and vote

:39:59. > :40:05.Labour? Fifield before them would have been that Labour voters would

:40:05. > :40:10.wonder what the point was. They know from things like that what is

:40:10. > :40:15.going on. George, you have got experience of this. Do you know by

:40:15. > :40:19.this stage when you are involved in these elections, what is going on?

:40:19. > :40:26.Yes, that is why it is always strange when you watch as if you're

:40:26. > :40:32.having gone through that. The commentators will no. Kenny has

:40:32. > :40:39.rather shocked me by giving it away. People who do not when usually do

:40:39. > :40:44.not rush to the microphones to broadcast it! Normally you would

:40:44. > :40:49.think of a statesmanlike response and prepare the ground. The parties

:40:49. > :40:59.do quite sophisticated things. You are trained to watch the ballots

:40:59. > :40:59.

:40:59. > :41:03.being counted. That goes into the laptop at the site and the

:41:03. > :41:11.programme was is away. You can quite quickly have a prediction of

:41:11. > :41:15.the result. I would take what Kenny has said as two. It has been wrong,

:41:15. > :41:19.I remember SNP telling me that Glenrothes was OK and then 30

:41:19. > :41:29.minutes later they ran out of the room. How long into the Kent was it

:41:29. > :41:30.

:41:30. > :41:36.when the told you? It was early. Earlier than this? Yes. Plenty for

:41:36. > :41:40.the politicians to mull over. We will not take up that theme of

:41:40. > :41:46.her ballots are counted, I think most of the members of my panel are

:41:46. > :41:52.too busy biting their nails at counts for that. I do want to pick

:41:52. > :41:57.up on one the you were discussing, that is with our were new panel

:41:57. > :42:01.member, and a kick in, what will this result means for Ed Miliband?

:42:01. > :42:06.Would he be wiping his brow and thinking he is not as bad as some

:42:06. > :42:10.of the press pick him to be? think we can look forward to a good

:42:10. > :42:14.victory this evening, from early indications down at the count

:42:14. > :42:19.tonight. I think people were talking down at the count about

:42:19. > :42:24.people managing to get by with the majority of under 2000. If we have

:42:24. > :42:29.a majority up of that, I think it shows we have turned a very

:42:29. > :42:34.difficult corner in a very short period of time. If you look at

:42:34. > :42:40.we're aware polling was, we were neck and neck at the start of this

:42:40. > :42:44.campaign. I think we have come forward. What made the difference?

:42:44. > :42:49.I think it was about Labour activists and hundreds of them,

:42:49. > :42:56.most of them from Scotland, coming to speak to ordinary voters right

:42:56. > :43:00.across the constituency and listen to them. Did people on the

:43:00. > :43:04.doorsteps member -- mention Ed Miliband much? When he was on his

:43:04. > :43:11.visit to Inverclyde, I saw him leaving with your candidate, a

:43:11. > :43:19.couple were going up the steps into the local college, someone said,

:43:19. > :43:27.look, there is Iain McKenzie. She recognised him but not Ed Miliband.

:43:27. > :43:32.He is not in the newspapers every week as Ian might have been. He is

:43:32. > :43:37.very well known and it came across strongly in the by-election. It is

:43:37. > :43:43.showing that Labour was listening to the real issues affecting people

:43:43. > :43:47.in Inverclyde. Their concerns about the lack of jobs and the fact that

:43:47. > :43:50.college funds have been cut by �5 million. We have got hundreds of

:43:50. > :43:55.students who would like to apply and going to courses there but are

:43:55. > :44:00.not able to do so. It is talking about policies which make a real

:44:00. > :44:06.difference to people's lives. is a review under way of the

:44:06. > :44:15.disaster at your party hat on 5th May. You said this result should

:44:15. > :44:20.you turned to a corner. There is no point. We have been very open about

:44:20. > :44:24.that. We have to have a thorough investigation of all the factors

:44:24. > :44:29.that influence that result and how we can learn from it. Importantly,

:44:29. > :44:34.we have got council elections next year right across Scotland. We want

:44:34. > :44:39.to make sure we were up are in the best possible position. By-

:44:39. > :44:43.elections are rather special. The normal cycle we are in at the

:44:43. > :44:47.moment is a very different nature. That is why the review is so

:44:47. > :44:51.important for us, that we learn the lessons of what went wrong at the

:44:51. > :44:56.elections, we learn what changes we need to make in terms of

:44:56. > :45:01.organisation and structure, but also in terms of policy, but I

:45:01. > :45:05.think this is quite a close review of our party, which is necessary to

:45:05. > :45:13.make sure that we are in tune with people's needs and we have policies

:45:13. > :45:16.which are attractive to them. Mundell, what seems to be

:45:16. > :45:21.establishing itself pretty clearly in Scottish politics is that people

:45:21. > :45:24.voting will vote one way for the Westminster elections, and then

:45:24. > :45:32.another one for the Holyrood elections, for your party in

:45:32. > :45:35.Scotland, that is disastrous. not, it demonstrates that people do

:45:35. > :45:42.demonstrate the different elections differently. I do not think that is

:45:42. > :45:46.unusual. You are going to be the only MP if this carries on. I do

:45:46. > :45:51.not take anything for granted, in relation to my own position, what I

:45:51. > :45:55.want to see his to be joined by more colleagues at Westminster. We

:45:55. > :46:01.want to increase our number of councillors next year. We want to

:46:01. > :46:05.be a strong force at Holyrood. That is why we have had our own review,

:46:05. > :46:11.the commission headed by Lord Sanderson, and we are undertaking a

:46:11. > :46:15.number of changes. When I the taking place? A new constitution

:46:15. > :46:19.for the party will be adopted at their end of the summer. We will be

:46:19. > :46:23.looking for a leader of the party in autumn. These are radical

:46:23. > :46:28.changes in terms of how we organise our party, but it is also important

:46:28. > :46:32.that we have a message which is relevant to people. We will

:46:33. > :46:38.continue to work on that. We are proud of our record to date in the

:46:38. > :46:42.Westminster government, we are proud of our government in the

:46:42. > :46:46.Scottish elections in May. We need a positive contribution. We are

:46:46. > :46:51.determined to be a force in Scottish politics, it is quite

:46:51. > :46:55.clear from tonight's elections that we have established ourselves as

:46:55. > :46:58.the third party in Scottish politics. Would David Cameron be

:46:58. > :47:04.staying up tonight wondering what has happened to the boat in

:47:04. > :47:07.Inverclyde? He is taking a keen interest in his election as he does

:47:07. > :47:11.in all Westminster elections. He will be pleased at the campaign

:47:11. > :47:17.that we have fault, David Wilson has fought a very strong campaign

:47:17. > :47:21.based on his own local record. We have not seen our fault squeezed as

:47:21. > :47:28.we might have expected in a boat like this, with their SNP and

:47:28. > :47:33.Labour is the main protagonists. We have held our record and had a good

:47:33. > :47:37.campaign. We have knocked on thousands of doors, David Cameron

:47:37. > :47:40.will be pleased. Everybody around the panel seems fairly clear that

:47:40. > :47:50.Labour have done this at have done well in comparison to some of the

:47:50. > :47:54.predictions. At the Liberal Democrats managed to avoid it

:47:54. > :47:59.embarrassment of coming 5th? have to wait for the full result so

:47:59. > :48:02.we do not know the answer to that question. This is not a fabulous

:48:02. > :48:06.result for the Liberal Democrats, we are still in their early

:48:06. > :48:11.stages... How will you rebuild after a couple of months ago? You

:48:11. > :48:18.are now a minority party at Holyrood. Heidi stop yourself not

:48:18. > :48:21.becoming a minority party in Westminster? We have 11 MPs at

:48:21. > :48:26.Westminster and we are playing a real role in government making lace

:48:26. > :48:30.better for the people in Scotland. Increasing state pension which will

:48:30. > :48:34.help or hundreds of thousands of pensioners across Scotland so that

:48:34. > :48:39.their earnings link that was broken by the Conservatives that was not

:48:39. > :48:45.reinstated by Labour has now been reinstated. All that has happened...

:48:45. > :48:49.When people get the chance to vote, they do not vote for you. I take

:48:49. > :48:52.the. There we need to communicate those messages better. Many of the

:48:52. > :48:57.good things we have done in government have not yet sunk into

:48:57. > :49:01.people or we have not necessarily got the credit for them. It is

:49:01. > :49:05.within a context of what is undoubtedly a difficult time in

:49:05. > :49:09.public finances. We are facing a massive budget deficit that has got

:49:09. > :49:13.to be tackled. You have got to look at some of the other countries in

:49:13. > :49:20.Europe to see what some of the consequences might have been if

:49:20. > :49:30.they had not got to grips with the deficit. We are making sure that we

:49:30. > :49:31.do what a Conservative government would have done on their own. We

:49:31. > :49:35.are helping those polled -- pensioners by cutting taxes for

:49:35. > :49:39.those on lower and middle incomes, instead of cutting inheritance tax

:49:39. > :49:48.for millionaires. Lot of people do not seem to be lessening or are not

:49:48. > :49:53.believing? We need to communicate letter -- better and listen more.

:49:53. > :49:57.Stewart Hosie, this differential between people old Holyrood and

:49:57. > :50:02.Westminster, that has got some significant dangers for your party

:50:02. > :50:06.when it comes to the referendum campaign, does it not? If the

:50:06. > :50:09.voters are becoming very sophisticated in the way that the

:50:09. > :50:15.give their states that -- support and the Poles are accurate, then

:50:15. > :50:21.they can quite happily support an SNP government, but not support

:50:21. > :50:26.independence. Are you worried? at all. It gives me a lot of

:50:26. > :50:30.comfort. The Scottish electorate do understand Holyrood, they can vote

:50:30. > :50:37.one way, Westminster they can vote another. They have doubled their

:50:37. > :50:41.share of the vote. It means they can take their own decision

:50:41. > :50:46.standing alone in their independence referendum. They will

:50:46. > :50:50.weigh that up on the basis of arguments for and against. I have

:50:50. > :50:55.always said, if the referendum is held the case can be made and one.

:50:55. > :51:01.If it is uncontaminated by the other issues that go along with the

:51:01. > :51:05.general election, then so much the better. I am relaxed about that.

:51:05. > :51:10.Just explain again with the SNP have taken this decision not to

:51:10. > :51:17.have the referendum until the tail end. We said the second half of

:51:17. > :51:20.this term. That was a promise we made. Why? We have got to run the

:51:20. > :51:26.campaign. We have still got the Scotland Bill going through

:51:26. > :51:29.Westminster which need to be improved. Your argument for

:51:29. > :51:33.independence is that an independent Scotland would be much more

:51:33. > :51:37.prosperous and a party for Scotland deserves to have all the economic

:51:37. > :51:41.levers that many other nations have and that would make us better off.

:51:41. > :51:45.If independence equals a more prosperous Scotland, then why

:51:45. > :51:55.bother arguing with the Scotland Bill, why not they just have the

:51:55. > :51:59.referendum, when that, be more Because the referendum was part of

:51:59. > :52:04.a manifest yes package. If we won the election in May, we promised

:52:04. > :52:09.that we would have the referendum in the second half of the

:52:09. > :52:15.Parliament. I don't understand why? You were saying it was because of

:52:15. > :52:19.the Scotland bill, but equally you say that independence would improve

:52:19. > :52:26.the economics? So go straight to independence, why the wait? If we

:52:26. > :52:30.have the independence wait there is a period before this independence

:52:30. > :52:35.happens, even if we win. The Scotland bill is right now. Let's

:52:35. > :52:41.get the conditions to improve the bill now and strengthen the

:52:41. > :52:44.economic performance and stick to the referendum promise.

:52:44. > :52:48.Labour's position on the Scottish Parliament does not make sense

:52:48. > :52:52.anymore. You supported the Calman proposals, the Scottish people were

:52:52. > :52:58.asked if they support them, they said "no", they support the SNP's

:52:58. > :53:02.position, surely Labour would be better off getting ahead of the

:53:02. > :53:07.curve rather than being behind? had a mandate of over 1 million

:53:07. > :53:10.votes laster. Also our policy within our manifesto, as it was in

:53:10. > :53:13.the manifesto for the Liberal Democrats and the Conservative

:53:13. > :53:17.Party, that represented the majority of the votes in last

:53:17. > :53:22.year's Westminster election and the electorate a clear that Westminster

:53:22. > :53:27.deals with this such as a Scotland bill. The Calman process -- process

:53:27. > :53:32.was about improving defendant luegs, not about a route to separation.

:53:32. > :53:35.The SNP would agree with that. They never took part in the Calman

:53:35. > :53:40.Commission. This was about improving legitimacy and the

:53:40. > :53:45.account jaiblt of Holyrood. It is not about the extra powers, but how

:53:45. > :53:49.the Parliament relates to the electorate. That is one of the key

:53:49. > :53:53.elements. So the argument this that the SNP in the last term at

:53:53. > :53:59.Holyrood said that they would have a referendum, they had the national

:53:59. > :54:04.conversation, they put out papers, no-one remembers what was on them,

:54:04. > :54:08.then they went ahead with the bill at the end of the last year.

:54:08. > :54:12.that is what the SNP have done, Labour are reviewing policies,

:54:12. > :54:17.realising that they were beaten in the election a couple of months ago.

:54:17. > :54:22.As part of the policy review, are you contemplating going beyond the

:54:22. > :54:26.current proposals in the Scotland Bill? We have a firm commitment in

:54:26. > :54:29.our manifesto last year to support the Scotland Bill on the basis of

:54:29. > :54:36.the Calman Commission proposals. That is why we have supported the

:54:36. > :54:40.kch bill as it is passed through -- supported the Bill as it is passed

:54:40. > :54:44.through Westminster. We welcome the fact that the Committee at Holyrood

:54:44. > :54:48.before the election asked for additional borrowing powers, we

:54:48. > :54:52.endorsed that. We endorse sensible change where there is hard and

:54:52. > :54:57.conclusive evidence that it is in the best interests of Scotland.

:54:57. > :55:02.I think we are getting close to the result. David Mandell, you are a

:55:02. > :55:06.Scotland officers minister, on the issues of powers for Holyrood,

:55:06. > :55:10.Stuart has made the case that the Scottish people want additional

:55:10. > :55:14.powers are you to give the six demands? I don't accept that the

:55:14. > :55:18.Scottish election result was a mandate for changes to the Scotland

:55:18. > :55:21.Bill it was a mandate for the independence referendum, the SNP

:55:21. > :55:26.were clear about that. Alex Salmond did not mention the Scotland Bill

:55:26. > :55:31.until the last weekend. However, he has come forward, to make six

:55:31. > :55:37.suggestions for changes to the Bill. We have said we will listen to what

:55:37. > :55:42.he has to say. We have asked him for the details of the issues. He

:55:42. > :55:46.has come forward... There is no chance of the UK Government giving

:55:46. > :55:49.power over exercise duty or Corporation Tax, seriously? I think

:55:49. > :55:54.what is important is that Alex Salmond sets out why he wants the

:55:54. > :55:58.powers, what benefit the powers will bring? It is clear for example,

:55:58. > :56:03.if he had power over corporation contamination, -- tax, there would

:56:03. > :56:07.be a �2.6 billion hole in Scotland's finances. I think that

:56:07. > :56:12.Alex has to justify... This is a Conservative complain being a

:56:12. > :56:20.potential cut to Corporation Tax? I'm not complain being a cut to krp

:56:20. > :56:24.ration tax. What I am asking for is a justification for that cut in

:56:24. > :56:29.terms of what's going to happen to the Scottish budget. Where is the

:56:29. > :56:33.money going to come from to fill that black hole. Now Alex Salmond

:56:33. > :56:38.has made the demands. He has to come forward with detailed evidence

:56:38. > :56:42.as to why they would benefit Scotland. Why they would not

:56:42. > :56:49.destabilise the United Kingdom, if so, we can listen to them and look

:56:49. > :56:53.at them carefully. You can presumably endorse the Corporation

:56:53. > :56:58.Tax? I think that we have to see the clear cases put forward by the

:56:58. > :57:02.SNP. Also, the way to do institutional change is to try to

:57:02. > :57:08.get a consensus within the country, not just as far as possible between

:57:08. > :57:11.the politicians, but with the wider civil society. That is why the

:57:11. > :57:19.Calman Commission process went forward. Interesting that the SNP

:57:19. > :57:23.are keen on change now, why not submit these earlier in the

:57:23. > :57:27.process? Well, we are here to find out the result from Inverclyde,

:57:27. > :57:32.Gordon, what can you tell us about that? We are expecting a result

:57:32. > :57:35.within the next few moments. If I ask you a question, don't be

:57:36. > :57:40.surprise fundamental I have to cut you off. I want it return to the

:57:40. > :57:45.business of jobs. You were brought up in that area? I was born there

:57:45. > :57:50.and grew up there. It was a completely different world,

:57:50. > :57:58.presumably? Of course. You see pictures at the turn of the century,

:57:58. > :58:06.amazing? The ship yards they came in 1951. I told you we would have

:58:06. > :58:11.to interrupt, we are going to the count. Ladies and gentlemen, I John

:58:11. > :58:15.Mandell, being the returning officer for Inverclyde County, do

:58:15. > :58:23.give notice that the number of votes recorded for the candidates

:58:23. > :58:33.is as follows. Bridget Kendall, the Scottish Liberal Democrats --

:58:33. > :58:41.

:58:41. > :58:47.Sophie Bridger, 627. Iain McKenzie, the Scottish Labour Party, 15,118.

:58:47. > :58:57.APPLAUSE. Anne McElvoy, the Scottish National Party, 9 -- ain

:58:57. > :59:04.

:59:04. > :59:14.answer M cLaughlin 9 ,280. Mitch Sorbie, UK Independence Party, 288.

:59:14. > :59:14.

:59:14. > :59:22.David Alexander Wilson, 2,784. number of billion ot papers

:59:22. > :59:25.rejected was as follows -- ballot papers is as follows, voting for

:59:26. > :59:30.more than one candidate, 20, writing by which a voter could not

:59:30. > :59:40.be identified, zero. Being unmarked or void for uncertainty, 46, giving

:59:40. > :59:41.

:59:41. > :59:51.a total of 66. The electorate was 61,856. The ballot papers verified,

:59:51. > :59:55.28,163. The turn out, therefore, was 45.53%. I therefore here by

:59:55. > :00:00.declare that Iain McKenzie of the Scottish Labour Party is duly

:00:00. > :00:05.elected to serve as the member of the UK Labour Party for the

:00:05. > :00:15.Inverclyde constituency. I would like to congratulate Iain McKenzie

:00:15. > :00:30.

:00:30. > :00:35.Thank you, John. First, can I say, this is an election that none of us

:00:35. > :00:41.wanted. We would have much preferred that our friend and

:00:41. > :00:45.wildly respected MP, David Cairns was still among us. Serving the

:00:45. > :00:49.people of Inverclyde as he did so for ten years before being

:00:49. > :00:53.tragically taken from us. I am humbled to be elected to succeed

:00:53. > :00:57.David, to continue his work. Standing up for our communities,

:00:57. > :01:02.fighting fire fairness and opportunities for our people. Make

:01:02. > :01:10.no mistake, this is a good night for Inverclyde and a good night for

:01:10. > :01:15.Labour too. APPLAUSE. I'm proud to be a part of the Labour Party.

:01:15. > :01:19.Renewing itself under Ed Miliband's leadership, listening more, working

:01:19. > :01:24.harder and challenging to get back in touch with those we seek to

:01:24. > :01:27.serve. I'm proud I'm a community of Inverclyde, paying an important

:01:27. > :01:33.step in Labour's mission to win back the trust of the people here

:01:33. > :01:38.in Scotland and south of the border. Remember, only weeks ago, the SNP

:01:38. > :01:45.came within 511 votes of winning here. Tonight, after just 56 days

:01:45. > :01:55.of a new SNP government, the votes of Inverclyde have rejected them!

:01:55. > :02:02.

:02:02. > :02:06.Are the are the There time giving a majority of over 5,000. Labour's

:02:06. > :02:13.fightback has started here in Inverclyde, my home town it is

:02:13. > :02:23.where I was born, where I went to school, served my apprenticeship,

:02:23. > :02:34.

:02:34. > :02:44.married Alison 29 years ago and Let's have another look at that

:02:44. > :03:04.

:03:04. > :03:10.There is the sheer of the vote. -- share. The change, not from the

:03:10. > :03:20.recent Scottish election, the change from the last general

:03:20. > :03:23.

:03:23. > :03:33.election. SMP is always up. Labour is down a bit 2%. Liberal Democrats

:03:33. > :03:37.

:03:37. > :03:45.down 11%. And the swim, if we can see that, from Labour to the SNP of

:03:45. > :03:51.just under 9%. The figure I did not mention there was at the 45%

:03:51. > :03:58.turnout. Is that there was crucial thing there? Certainly, the Labour

:03:58. > :04:08.vote has come out. The Labour vote has stuck with the party. It looks

:04:08. > :04:08.

:04:08. > :04:16.as if the Lib Dem collapse is where the SNP have got their vote. Lib-

:04:16. > :04:21.Dem have lost 11% and the SNP are up 16%. Labour will be hugely

:04:21. > :04:26.relieved. This is the first of their electoral test we have had

:04:26. > :04:36.since the SNP's whim at the Holyrood election and perhaps

:04:36. > :04:37.

:04:37. > :04:46.suggests it could be people reverting to type, or it could be,

:04:46. > :04:54.and this might concern the SNP, we assumed that the SNP's results of

:04:54. > :05:04.wear because... Sorry, let's just hear a little bit of an McLaughlan.

:05:04. > :05:04.

:05:04. > :05:12.-- Anne McLaughlin. I thank the Labour Party for your applause, I

:05:12. > :05:17.was not expecting it. I would like to start by thanking everyone

:05:17. > :05:21.involved in the election in an official capacity. I would like to

:05:21. > :05:26.thank in particular my family who live in Gourock, Greenock and Port

:05:26. > :05:30.Glasgow for all of their support. And I would like to thank all of

:05:30. > :05:35.the SNP's activists from around Inverclyde and the rest of Scotland

:05:35. > :05:43.for their support. They have been unstinting and they have been

:05:43. > :05:49.fabulous. They ran an incredible and a positive campaign. I would

:05:49. > :05:55.congratulate Iain McKenzie. I understand that he feels incredibly

:05:55. > :06:00.proud and privileged to be selected and elected to represent Inverclyde.

:06:00. > :06:04.There can be nothing better than being elected for the party of your

:06:04. > :06:12.choice to represent the people of your home area. I congratulate him

:06:12. > :06:17.on achieving that and I wish him well in Westminster. Again, I thank

:06:17. > :06:22.the Labour Party for your unexpected applause. I also want to

:06:22. > :06:30.thank the many thousands upon thousands of... We believe that

:06:30. > :06:34.their -- we will leave that there. Let's get some reaction from the

:06:34. > :06:41.politicians. After all the waiting, we got a

:06:41. > :06:46.result. This is your opportunity to gloat, or on you go. It is a

:06:46. > :06:52.stunning victory for a by-election. I would like to congratulate Iain

:06:52. > :06:57.McKenzie. I am sure he will be an excellent representative. I think

:06:57. > :07:02.it is a good night for us, but we are not complacent. He has got a

:07:02. > :07:10.hard job to do. There are many difficult demands and challengers

:07:10. > :07:14.for Inverclyde. I think the Alex Salmond bandwagon has come to a

:07:14. > :07:24.halt today. But it is also about the fact that the party is

:07:24. > :07:32.listening to the electorate. tone of the Mackenzie's speech.

:07:32. > :07:41.Vitriolic, is that a fair way of describing it? I would not say so.

:07:41. > :07:46.He correctly pointed out that it is a sadder -- a sad occasion that we

:07:46. > :07:56.are having the by-election. The loss of David Cairns. But Iain

:07:56. > :07:56.

:07:56. > :08:36.Apology for the loss of subtitles for 255 seconds

:08:36. > :08:41.McKenzie feels very passionately I hope you recognises he has got

:08:41. > :08:47.very big shoes to fill with the loss of David Cairns. I am sure

:08:47. > :08:52.once he has calmed down, they will have to be rather better than that

:08:52. > :08:58.vitriolic acceptance speech. That is a matter for Labour. I think

:08:58. > :09:06.doubling every share from 2010, a swing of almost 10%, it is momentum,

:09:06. > :09:08.carrying forward and given this is a Westminster context. We are held

:09:08. > :09:13.of this campaign that Anne McLaughlin ran. We now need to

:09:13. > :09:16.build on this momentum for future Westminster elections and think

:09:16. > :09:22.about the council elections next year. It sounds as if you have

:09:22. > :09:29.almost given up as a party on Westminster elections. No, that is

:09:29. > :09:32.why we have just gone up. It is an election. It is, but it is an

:09:32. > :09:37.election for a Westminster seat. If you fail to recognise the starting

:09:37. > :09:42.point, if we pretend it is Labour doing no difference then we will

:09:42. > :09:47.make a mistake. If we recognise a Holyrood elections take place in

:09:47. > :09:51.one context and Westminster in another, the campaign has to be

:09:52. > :09:55.pitched appropriate to. To get a swing of almost 9% is in a grip --

:09:55. > :10:02.an incredible achievement. I am very pleased with it forward

:10:02. > :10:07.momentum. What did you not to write? I think we did a lot right.

:10:07. > :10:12.I have got to have a look in some detail of how we said it and how we

:10:12. > :10:16.campaigned. Every party will have lessons, whether they win or lose.

:10:16. > :10:24.I am very pleased we had a short campaign in difficult situ --

:10:24. > :10:27.circumstances and kept the momentum going. You have had time to go into

:10:27. > :10:32.the Encyclopaedia of by-election excuses, how do you explain what is

:10:32. > :10:36.another Lib Dem disaster. Congratulations to Iain McKenzie, I

:10:36. > :10:43.am sure we will make him welcome when he gets to Westminster. I do

:10:43. > :10:48.not think the result is is a huge surprise. It is very unusual for

:10:48. > :10:54.opposition parties to lose by- elections. Just a few weeks after

:10:54. > :10:59.an historic, stunning victory for SM p, there is clearly some

:10:59. > :11:03.momentum with their SNP. There is an echo with what happened to us at

:11:03. > :11:07.the Scottish elections a few weeks ago. That is a difficult context

:11:07. > :11:11.and we need to listen to Scottish people, reflecting on what we need

:11:11. > :11:16.to do differently and communicating better and rebuilding the party.

:11:16. > :11:23.Sophie Bridger, as a young a fresh talent is the sort of person he

:11:23. > :11:30.will be part of that rebuilding. any area of Scotland for the had

:11:30. > :11:38.some sort of base, as he did in Inverclyde, to have received 600 a

:11:38. > :11:43.wad of notes, one street of a whole constituency, I many other signals

:11:44. > :11:48.do you need that tell you that Nick Clegg is a disaster as the leader

:11:48. > :11:54.of your party? I do not think that is what it says. Explain this

:11:54. > :11:58.result. I think it says that people are finding the coalition difficult

:11:58. > :12:01.and it is obvious that in Scotland it is particularly difficult

:12:01. > :12:06.because we are aligned with the Conservatives who have had such an

:12:06. > :12:13.emotional reaction from Scottish people. That is when we need to get

:12:13. > :12:18.better. It is damaging Lib Dems far more than Conservative. Of course,

:12:18. > :12:24.the people who are voting Conservatives are liking the

:12:24. > :12:28.Conservatives. We need to make apparent the difference that the

:12:28. > :12:34.Liberal Democrats are doing. The priorities that this government

:12:34. > :12:36.have are very difficult to what a Conservative government on its own

:12:36. > :12:40.would have. They would have introduced tax breaks for

:12:41. > :12:45.millionaires, we are introducing tax cuts for people on low incomes.

:12:45. > :12:50.We need to communicate that much better. I am sure we will rebuild

:12:50. > :12:54.the party but we need to listen to better. How do I describe the

:12:54. > :13:00.results from a Conservative. A few? Would the word is stale do? I do

:13:00. > :13:04.not think it would do at all. I think it is a solid result. Our

:13:04. > :13:12.Water share is pretty much what it has been in Inverclyde in recent

:13:12. > :13:18.elections. You are as unpopular as ever. I would not put it that way.

:13:18. > :13:25.David has got a very good campaign. We could have been squeezed in

:13:25. > :13:29.situations where it is clearly a labour SNP fight. We held on to our

:13:30. > :13:33.report. Are people wanted to come out and vote Conservative and

:13:33. > :13:40.acknowledge that they are conservative. We have fought a good

:13:40. > :13:44.campaign. We want to do better in all elections as such, but as I set

:13:44. > :13:48.out at the start of this programme, I said if we finished third and

:13:48. > :13:57.held our deposit then that would be a good result in the context of

:13:57. > :14:00.this. We move on and forward. Annika second, the cast of Labour

:14:00. > :14:05.characters who were brought in, from Gordon Brown and John Prescott

:14:05. > :14:08.and a pile of others, does your party simply work harder for

:14:08. > :14:15.Westminster elections in they do for Holyrood? Does that not see a

:14:15. > :14:20.lot about the state of the party in Scotland? After spending 5.5 weeks

:14:20. > :14:27.pounding the streets of Scotland with many of my colleagues as well,

:14:27. > :14:34.we fight every election very hard. Nowadays you are expected to fight

:14:34. > :14:42.hard. The fact we have a majority tonight of well over 5.5000, in by-

:14:42. > :14:48.election terms that is a stunning when. -- 5,500. At the start of the

:14:48. > :14:58.campaign we were neck-and-neck with their SNP. We do not take any

:14:58. > :15:00.

:15:00. > :15:04.lesson for granted. We have learned that lesson. There is a question

:15:04. > :15:09.about distinctiveness of policy, organisation, whether we did not

:15:09. > :15:14.have as much resources as their SNP. Or whole range of different factors

:15:14. > :15:18.which is why we have conducted the review at the present time. Please

:15:18. > :15:22.do not think it is because of lack of hard work from everybody in the

:15:23. > :15:27.party, particularly from many of are hundreds of members who came to

:15:27. > :15:33.help out in this campaign. I am delighted the hard work has shown

:15:33. > :15:39.through. Stewart Hosie, you managed to show everybody that the party --

:15:39. > :15:45.the money the party had attracted. Did you expend Labour? There is a

:15:45. > :15:49.�100,000 limit for every party. If ourselves and Labour did not come

:15:49. > :15:57.to a limit of, or close to it, I would be surprised. This is not

:15:57. > :16:05.about money but momentum. I am very pleased with the result. Thank you

:16:05. > :16:10.all very much. Let us here from Scotland's newest MP.

:16:10. > :16:20.We can! Iain McKenzie joins as now from Greenock. The new, just

:16:20. > :16:21.

:16:21. > :16:26.elected, MP for Inverclyde. Why do you think he one? Hello. Yes, why

:16:26. > :16:33.have we one? We did what we said we would. We listened to the people of

:16:33. > :16:38.Inverclyde. We knocked on doors and asked people what they needed. It

:16:38. > :16:46.was an engagement with Inverclyde that one has this fantastic victory.

:16:46. > :16:52.Their SNP made it a substantial inroads into the majority.

:16:52. > :16:58.really. Not substantial inroads. If you look at their vote, it held up

:16:58. > :17:02.a very well indeed. I was delighted to get almost a 6,000 majority.

:17:02. > :17:09.you want to be an MP? Is it something you have been striving

:17:09. > :17:13.towards or was this thrust upon you? No-one wanted his election.

:17:13. > :17:20.David Cairns was a hard-working, will respected MP and a good friend

:17:20. > :17:24.of mine. I was delighted when he became our MP for or team --

:17:24. > :17:28.Inverclyde. When opportunity arose after his death, we decided we

:17:28. > :17:33.would look for a local man to go forward to represent Inverclyde. I

:17:33. > :17:37.have always wanted to take this next step from the council to

:17:37. > :17:45.Westminster or Holyrood. Is there any broader significance in your

:17:45. > :17:48.view to this? For the Labour Party in Scotland? I think this is a

:17:48. > :17:53.tremendous -- of tremendous significance for it the Labour

:17:53. > :17:58.Party in Scotland. This has been a fantastic result for Labour. What

:17:58. > :18:03.is the broader significance, other than you have had a reasonably good

:18:03. > :18:09.result after getting a pummelling for years? We have stopped their

:18:09. > :18:16.SNP bandwagon in its tracks. Under Ed Miliband's leadership the Labour

:18:16. > :18:20.Party are back on course. There has been some criticism, I am afraid,

:18:20. > :18:24.of some politicians on that panel, saying that they it acceptance

:18:24. > :18:29.speech you made, perhaps in the heat of the moment, was somewhat

:18:29. > :18:33.intemperate. Would you like to take their opportunity of conceding that

:18:33. > :18:37.and telling us that that is not how you intend to conduct yourself when

:18:38. > :18:43.you go to Westminster? I am delighted and tumbled to be

:18:44. > :18:49.representing the place I grew up and lead. -- humbled. You sound

:18:49. > :18:57.very humbled a beer. I am indeed humbled. It is a great honour to

:18:57. > :19:02.represent the place of my birth. Thank you very much indeed.

:19:02. > :19:09.The rain, we were talking about turnout, is the broader

:19:09. > :19:13.significance to this? I think the significance, there are dangers for

:19:13. > :19:18.Labour and SNP. The danger for Labour is that the go away and

:19:18. > :19:21.assume it is all fine and blame it that people at Holyrood. I think

:19:21. > :19:26.that would be a wrong conclusion to draw. The problems they have got

:19:26. > :19:34.are much wider than that. Their boat has been in decline for the

:19:34. > :19:41.past 10 years. -- the vear board. For the SNP there is the issue that

:19:41. > :19:45.it is becoming clear that the mandate that the court last month

:19:45. > :19:53.was running a competent government at Holyrood. When it comes to the

:19:53. > :19:58.UK dimension... There is an almost 9% swing to them. That is why it is

:19:58. > :20:02.wrong if Labour see it is all fine, it is not. SNP have made an end

:20:02. > :20:07.road and are chipping away with every Test there is. That does

:20:07. > :20:12.matter. It is building towards something. At the same time, it

:20:12. > :20:15.does mean that a lot of instinctive the Unionists did vote SNP at

:20:15. > :20:24.Holyrood, but there is some evidence that, come to Westminster,

:20:24. > :20:30.they are not sticking with that. George, would you agree with that

:20:30. > :20:36.or which you agree with that? the votes go straight to the SNP? I

:20:36. > :20:41.am not sure. Was it the case that half of the collapsed Lib Dem vote

:20:41. > :20:47.goes to Labour and some of the Labour vote goes to the SNP? If it

:20:47. > :20:52.is the latter, if it still on course that way, then their SNP is

:20:52. > :20:59.moving towards having a majority to hold the referendum. SNP is not in

:20:59. > :21:07.this to win another election, it is the year to get independence.

:21:07. > :21:11.Young? I think he is right to indicate this. The Lib Dems have

:21:11. > :21:17.had a reasonable base in Greenock and Inverclyde. The Liberals were

:21:17. > :21:22.the second party in Inverclyde for most of my adult life. The chase to

:21:22. > :21:28.Labour in the 60s and 70s, they ran the council at Fabius stages. It is

:21:28. > :21:32.a terrible result for them. In my mind, it raises the question of

:21:32. > :21:37.what happens to the Liberal vote across Scotland over the next four

:21:37. > :21:43.years? Does it come back to them? If not, who does it go to and how

:21:43. > :21:48.does it go there? It me beat that George was identifying a

:21:48. > :21:55.complicated way. The challenge for the SNP having topped this one up

:21:55. > :21:59.in terms of thinking they might actually make it and produced that

:21:59. > :22:05.cataclysmic upset is that now that they are partly being judged in

:22:05. > :22:11.Inverclyde on what they are doing about people who are on the margin

:22:11. > :22:15.of this age of austerity, who never had much of a good deal out of the

:22:15. > :22:21.better times that came before the crash and are having a much worse

:22:21. > :22:26.time now. They are going to have to watch in terms of the way in which

:22:26. > :22:31.the dispose of their policies, how they direct their policies towards

:22:31. > :22:35.the areas like Inverclyde which are on the margin, and we're part of

:22:35. > :22:39.the reason Labour did better than many people thought they would do

:22:39. > :22:47.was because they could spot at prop, and begin to hype it up in terms of

:22:47. > :22:56.funding, terms of jobs and the rest of it. Just a brief comment on

:22:56. > :22:59.their terms of where the Liberal Democrat vote is going? I think

:22:59. > :23:08.George is absolutely right to highlight that. It is too early to

:23:08. > :23:11.know. It is some days before we can figure out how it went. If you

:23:11. > :23:17.remove the lid Dems go from Scotland as a political force and

:23:18. > :23:23.everything becomes a straight fight between Labour and SNP, we have got

:23:23. > :23:29.to reassess our calculations come every electoral test. We will leave