:00:07. > :00:17.Mark Lewis, thank you very much for coming in.
:00:17. > :00:18.
:00:18. > :00:28.disappointing GDP, retail sales and bankruptcy figures. Could the
:00:28. > :00:32.
:00:33. > :00:37.crisis in our key export market - years since the birth of David Hume.
:00:37. > :00:47.Why isn't this beacon of the Enlightenment as celebrated as
:00:47. > :00:47.
:00:47. > :00:57.Robert Burns or Walter Scott? Good evening. We may be feeling rather
:00:57. > :01:03.
:01:03. > :01:09.neighbours is also a crisis for us. We don't have answers yet and most
:01:09. > :01:19.of the questions hanging over the eurozone is what eurozone leaders
:01:19. > :01:20.
:01:20. > :01:30.will claim is a rescue package for the letterbox in a year or so? The
:01:30. > :01:38.
:01:38. > :01:42.George Osborne may be getting it public sector jobs will be more
:01:42. > :01:52.than made up for by a rise in employment in the private sector.
:01:52. > :01:54.
:01:54. > :02:01.to be at least something in that but - and it is a big butt - it all
:02:01. > :02:11.depends on the growth of exports we continuing. That is where Greece
:02:11. > :02:12.
:02:12. > :02:18.as we export and the rest of the UK too is highly dependent on
:02:18. > :02:25.exporting to the EU. In a hugely meaningful way, Britain's growth
:02:26. > :02:35.strategy works if Europe grows too. It is not Greece itself that is the
:02:36. > :02:37.
:02:37. > :02:43.wider European banking crisis on exposure to Greek debt, around �9
:02:43. > :02:53.greater exposure to banks in France and Germany which in turn have much
:02:53. > :02:58.
:02:58. > :03:04.greater exposure to Greece. That is countries could swamp the
:03:04. > :03:14.eurozone's ability to bail them out. It would certainly be a huge drag
:03:14. > :03:14.
:03:14. > :03:17.as certainly, it would trigger banking crisis in Portugal and
:03:17. > :03:21.Ireland. Something else - a discussion last week about George
:03:21. > :03:29.Osborne's strategy was tentative. Since then, we have had more
:03:29. > :03:34.economic data for Scotland and it one-tenth of 1%, way behind the UK
:03:34. > :03:39.as a whole, but the figures were dreadful enough. Bankruptcies in
:03:39. > :03:48.Scotland are way up and retail sales down. Take away rising
:03:48. > :03:52.exports to Europe, the insistent anguished scream. I'm joined once
:03:52. > :03:59.again by John McLaren from the Regions at Glasgow University and
:03:59. > :04:07.from Edinburgh by the Executive Jamieson. Bill, I'm curious as to
:04:07. > :04:17.Christine Lagarde, the new managing director of the IMF assuring us
:04:17. > :04:20.
:04:20. > :04:26.What is your take on it? Well, what real default - we are all waiting
:04:26. > :04:32.for the dog that has not yet barked. That is the European Central Bank.
:04:32. > :04:37.Without some blessing by the European Central Bank on this, this
:04:37. > :04:45.package could come apart very quickly. The feeling seems to be
:04:45. > :04:55.that the chairman of the Central Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy
:04:55. > :05:04.yesterday. That may be sorted? ahead. Now, this is not the first
:05:04. > :05:10.time we have had euro crisis to do a bit of patchwork for a few
:05:10. > :05:14.months and it starts to corrode and fray. So I think the markets will
:05:14. > :05:20.be quite critical tomorrow. Also whether that confidence can be
:05:20. > :05:30.quite alarming to see in the eurozone we are seeing signs of
:05:30. > :05:32.
:05:32. > :05:38.pace of growth. Yeah. What I'm as if it is a matter of opinion. It
:05:38. > :05:45.is more than that. If the credit agencies deem that this is a
:05:45. > :05:51.default by Greece, then there are all sorts of pension funds right
:05:51. > :05:56.across Europe and America that would be required by their own
:05:56. > :06:02.statutes to disinvest from Greek government bonds. Correct. There is
:06:02. > :06:09.more riding on this than just whether Christine Lagarde and the
:06:09. > :06:11.rest believe themselves problem. In terms of getting
:06:11. > :06:18.private sector support or private sector involvement behind this
:06:19. > :06:28.package and I wasn't clear from the going to be voluntary or enforced.
:06:28. > :06:35.enforcement in it and to the extent that that is true, it will be
:06:36. > :06:43.default. The other thing I wanted to ask you was this. I haven't seen
:06:43. > :06:49.the final document. I have the an extraordinary paragraph where
:06:49. > :06:56.they say look, this default which isn't a default, is a default
:06:56. > :07:01.because it goes on to say all other euro countries solemnly reaffirm
:07:01. > :07:11.their inflexible determination to honour fully their own individual
:07:11. > :07:14.
:07:14. > :07:19.sovereign's signature. So they are will be allowed to do that. Given
:07:19. > :07:29.the events of the last year, is that remotely credible? Well, I did
:07:29. > :07:32.
:07:32. > :07:37.watch Sarkozy being quite emphatic problem where this is na it will be
:07:37. > :07:41.seen by other -- that it will be seen by other countries as
:07:41. > :07:51.precedent setting. Once you have established a precedent, it is very
:07:51. > :07:56.allowed this for Greece, why will you not allow it for us? The
:07:56. > :08:06.precedent behind it could be very dangerous here. What do you make of
:08:06. > :08:09.
:08:09. > :08:15.this, John in? At least in the issues like the phrasing of this
:08:15. > :08:23.document, this phrase "sovereign is being applied to Greece or not.
:08:23. > :08:29.They are having to make tough decisions one way or another.
:08:29. > :08:37.may be a game-changer, but I can't heard in the last year or two that
:08:37. > :08:47.this is the game-changer and it has never been the complete game-
:08:47. > :08:51.
:08:51. > :09:01.Sarkozy said once and only once and happen. Now it is once and only
:09:01. > :09:04.
:09:04. > :09:11.it is not once and only once then because... Look, turn this on its
:09:11. > :09:21.head. Look at it another way. well during the financial crisis.
:09:21. > :09:24.
:09:24. > :09:31.Didn't they? No! And they have also European Union decides to run its
:09:31. > :09:40.affairs. This could be the first organisations saying the rating
:09:40. > :09:45.be abolished or reformed and not us? I don't think you will find too
:09:45. > :09:53.many defenders of them so - that should have been done already. To
:09:53. > :09:58.and change rating agencies, we will do it a different way, it is the
:09:58. > :10:02.wrong way round. They will be playing catch-up again on this. We
:10:02. > :10:11.can spell out connections between the local economy and what is going
:10:11. > :10:15.on there. We need European growth, don't we? The figures we got this
:10:15. > :10:18.week shows there is not a lot of it happening at the moment? There is
:10:18. > :10:22.not much growth happening in Scotland. What was disappointing
:10:22. > :10:26.was the bounce-back from the bad weather that happened in the UK in
:10:26. > :10:36.the first quarter didn't happen in Scotland. That wasn't due to
:10:36. > :10:41.manufacturing, they did quite well. Construction fell and public
:10:41. > :10:45.services, health and social work. 10% of the economy for people but
:10:45. > :10:50.they don't look at it that way. In the UK that's grown by 5% in the
:10:50. > :10:55.last year. In Scotland, it has not grown at all. Why is that? Has the
:10:56. > :11:01.Scottish Government stopped putting money into the Health Service? I'm
:11:01. > :11:04.not sure. There are these worrying things coming from a number of
:11:04. > :11:11.different areas now. It is difficult to see where the growth
:11:11. > :11:15.is going to come from. In terms of Scotland, over two-thirds of its
:11:15. > :11:24.exports are in alcohol or engineering. That is a pretty
:11:25. > :11:30.narrow range to have your exports in. So it's still difficult to see
:11:30. > :11:35.where that spur is going to come from in the Scottish context.
:11:35. > :11:40.an interesting point, Bill, that one level, obviously, a crisis in
:11:40. > :11:44.the eurozone doesn't help. We need a growing eurozone to increase
:11:44. > :11:48.exports. Underlying that, if you like the slightly more medium-term
:11:48. > :11:53.issues, there are huge question marks over whether the Scottish or
:11:53. > :11:58.the British economies any longer have the capacity to mount an
:11:58. > :12:03.export drive? Well, this is one of the worrying features about the
:12:03. > :12:07.data coming out since the first quarter figures and very little of
:12:07. > :12:11.it is at all optimistic. The one bright spot that John touched on
:12:11. > :12:17.was in fact the performance of the Scotland's food and drink
:12:17. > :12:21.industries. We have gone back to a sort of dependent on agriculture to
:12:21. > :12:27.see us through this very difficult period. If you are taking a medium-
:12:27. > :12:31.term view, there were some very serious questions to ask about our
:12:31. > :12:36.capacity to undertake this rebalancing of the economy, a shift
:12:36. > :12:40.from consumer demand on to manufacturing exports. And you are
:12:40. > :12:45.critically dependent on two things. First, as you were saying, the
:12:46. > :12:49.strength of the European economies, but also you are critically
:12:49. > :12:53.dependent on a very quick recovery in our banking sector and the
:12:53. > :12:55.banks' capacity to lend which I don't think will be helped by
:12:55. > :13:00.today's announcement because it does seem to suggest that the banks
:13:00. > :13:08.are going to take a hit in some form or another, it may not be a
:13:08. > :13:11.tax, but they may have to take a hit on their holdings of the
:13:11. > :13:16.stricken bonds. John, given the discussion we had last week, we
:13:16. > :13:20.seem to agree that you might, if you are going to have to rebalance
:13:20. > :13:26.the economy, you might expect retail sales to form. They fell
:13:26. > :13:30.here, in figures we had this week, they have gone up slightly as a
:13:30. > :13:33.whole. And you wouldn't expect to see bankruptcies going up by so
:13:33. > :13:42.much, would you? You would certainly hope not at this stage of
:13:42. > :13:47.what is supposed to be the recovery. I think in most recessions, large
:13:47. > :13:52.recessions over the last century, there is quite often a double dip
:13:52. > :13:56.or a slowdown and maybe that is what we are going through here. The
:13:56. > :13:59.trouble is... Isn't there also a phenomenon that you tend to get a
:13:59. > :14:03.rise in bankruptcies and an increase in unemployment just as
:14:03. > :14:07.the economy is coming out of recession. Banks start calling in
:14:07. > :14:17.their debts? Typically, GDP starts to recover before employment does.
:14:17. > :14:19.
:14:19. > :14:22.This has been an unusual one. We will have to leave it there.
:14:22. > :14:26.Thank you. No doubt Adam Smith would have much to say about the
:14:26. > :14:28.turmoil caused by the euro, but it is another stellar member of the
:14:28. > :14:31.Enlightenment who is remembered this week. It's 300 years since the
:14:31. > :14:34.birth of David Hume, thought by many as the greatest philosopher to
:14:34. > :14:37.write in English. But as devotees from around the world meet in
:14:37. > :14:47.Edinburgh to celebrate him, Derek Bateman wonders if Hume is another
:14:47. > :14:59.
:14:59. > :15:04.of those Scots who falls just below August 29th, 1,776, was a dark day
:15:04. > :15:14.in Scotland. The life of one of our greatest intellects was snuffed out
:15:14. > :15:18.and his remains interred. I have always considered him as
:15:18. > :15:24.approaching to the idea of a complete and virtuous man as
:15:24. > :15:28.perhaps the frailty of human life will permit. For the Giants of
:15:28. > :15:32.enlightenment of which David Hume was one, it was time to take stock
:15:32. > :15:35.of a revolutionary philosopher who challenged organised religion in an
:15:35. > :15:41.age of unthinking belief, who transformed the history of Britain
:15:41. > :15:51.into a bestseller and inspired among others Charles Darwin and
:15:51. > :15:57.
:15:57. > :16:06.James Boswell. Hume's views were atheistic. He said we understood
:16:06. > :16:11.the world through feelings, not external diktat. The Church of
:16:11. > :16:17.Scotland tried to ex-communicate him. One of his early works was
:16:18. > :16:24.published anonymously and he was rejected by both Edinburgh and
:16:24. > :16:32.Glasgow Universities. It is a sign of his contemporary popularity that
:16:32. > :16:39.his mausoleum was designed by Robert Adam. Hume's Romanesque tomb
:16:39. > :16:46.here in Edinburgh is largely forgotten today. Revered by
:16:46. > :16:51.students certainly, but this is no Burns, Bruce, Scott or Wallace of
:16:51. > :16:57.popular imagination. A wider audience would benefit from a Scot
:16:57. > :17:03.whose influence was global and to many is still relevant today. Hume
:17:03. > :17:08.may have been the shooting star of enlightenment but there was already
:17:08. > :17:13.a whole Solar System of intellect to be found amongst the courts of
:17:13. > :17:17.the old town with its clubs filled with debate and sustained by the
:17:17. > :17:23.best educated peasant class anywhere and the first free-lending
:17:23. > :17:30.libraries in the world. Mr Hume, come in. You are in time. Just in
:17:30. > :17:35.time. The role of the female sex in modern life... This is Hume's
:17:35. > :17:41.autobiography, it is probably the shortest autobiography of a great
:17:41. > :17:45.man in the English language... The National Library of Scotland has
:17:45. > :17:48.the most complete collections of his writing. I am or rather was for
:17:48. > :17:53.that is the style I must use in speaking with myself which "M"
:17:53. > :17:57.boldens me the more... Academics from around the globe are in
:17:57. > :18:02.Edinburgh to continue the arguments that raged in the back alleys of
:18:02. > :18:06.Edinburgh 300 years ago. If not all of Scotland understands Hume's
:18:06. > :18:14.contribution, they certainly do. You think about what he has to say
:18:14. > :18:22.about where human action originates, what he has to say about the origin
:18:22. > :18:27.and morality. We don't just pay attention to reason when we act. It
:18:27. > :18:32.would have an effect on persons that Tay take Hume seriously in so
:18:32. > :18:37.far as they think, they would pay more attention to the -- they take
:18:37. > :18:42.Hume seriously in so far as they think, they would pay more
:18:42. > :18:45.attention to the human side of life. We could do with more of Hume's
:18:45. > :18:55.thinking on imagination and him putting imagination at the heart of
:18:55. > :18:57.
:18:57. > :19:04.the way we respond to life. We have perhaps become almost too ideas-
:19:04. > :19:07.driven. Hume was a philosopher. He was interested in the world of his
:19:08. > :19:12.time, the world outside the study, the lecture theatre. He thought
:19:12. > :19:16.hard about business and commerce and he had serious and pessimistic
:19:16. > :19:20.things to say about national debt and the political consequences of
:19:20. > :19:25.national debt and how it can compromise a nation's institutions
:19:25. > :19:33.and freedoms so he seems to have things to say directly relevant to
:19:33. > :19:37.the situation of European countries right now. His story may lack the
:19:37. > :19:43.blood, thunder and romance of other heroes, but Hume offers us a
:19:43. > :19:51.different vision of the old nation, one of thought and insight which
:19:51. > :19:57.today could be just as uplifting. A look at the front-pages. Divided
:19:57. > :20:04.between a couple of stories. The Times leads on the eurozone deal.
:20:04. > :20:11.Europe hails historic deal to save currency. The Financial Times - a
:20:11. > :20:15.deal on Greece bail-out. Then in the Guardian, the latest
:20:15. > :20:20.developments in the News of the World story - James Murdoch lied to