0:00:01 > 0:00:09Italy it will blow of the world financial system. Thank you. --
0:00:09 > 0:00:12blow up the world financial system. Tonight on Newsnight Scotland one
0:00:12 > 0:00:16of the Scottish Government's key policies has come under attack for
0:00:16 > 0:00:20the second time in as many days. After Citigroup raised concerns
0:00:20 > 0:00:23about renewable energy yesterday, today it is the turn of engineers
0:00:23 > 0:00:29to question whether Government targets can be met.
0:00:29 > 0:00:33And in a week of mud-slinging and name-calling, we ask why Scottish
0:00:33 > 0:00:37politics seems to have turned nastier than usual.
0:00:37 > 0:00:40An oil industry consultant in Aberdeen has said that the North
0:00:40 > 0:00:44Sea could still be worth hundreds of billions of pounds if the
0:00:44 > 0:00:48Government gets its act together. That will presumably have cheered
0:00:48 > 0:00:51up the Government in a week that has seen two other reports
0:00:51 > 0:00:56undermining their strategy for renewable energy. Opposition
0:00:56 > 0:01:00parties have been quick to stress the problems.
0:01:00 > 0:01:04The SNP won the election on a promise of a target that by the
0:01:04 > 0:01:11year 2020, Scotland would be producing enough renewable
0:01:11 > 0:01:14electricity to match what it consumes. Today the Institution of
0:01:14 > 0:01:18Mechanical Engineers has published its major concerns over the
0:01:18 > 0:01:21renewables target. It says the reliance on wind-power would for
0:01:21 > 0:01:27Scotland reimport energy from England and Northern Ireland went
0:01:27 > 0:01:31the wind is not blowing. -- When the wind is not blowing. This would
0:01:31 > 0:01:35cost millions of pounds, pushing up bills and forcing people into fuel
0:01:35 > 0:01:38poverty. They also claimed the policy is not based on any
0:01:39 > 0:01:44published strategy or engineering analysis of what is physically
0:01:44 > 0:01:50needed to meet the 2020 target. The report is the second attack this
0:01:50 > 0:01:55week on one of the SNP Government's flagship policies. Analysis from
0:01:55 > 0:01:58city group warned companies to exercise extreme caution before
0:01:58 > 0:02:06investing in renewables in Scotland well uncertainty remains over
0:02:06 > 0:02:10independence. The consumer would have to pay enormous subsidies for
0:02:10 > 0:02:17renewables which are spread across the rest of the UK at the moment.
0:02:17 > 0:02:21City group says that a hike will amount to �800 per year. The SNP
0:02:21 > 0:02:27have rejected both reports and Iain Gray has accused the Government of
0:02:27 > 0:02:33misleading the country. It is clear that the uncertainty created by a
0:02:33 > 0:02:40referendum will damage the economy of this country. Firstly, the
0:02:40 > 0:02:45report ignores the reality. The reality is that investment is
0:02:45 > 0:02:49happening now. In the context of a live independence debate. And the
0:02:49 > 0:02:53second false assumption, that somehow after independence the rest
0:02:53 > 0:02:59of the UK will no longer buy its Scottish energy is absolute
0:02:59 > 0:03:02nonsense. The future may not be green but everyone is determined to
0:03:02 > 0:03:09make political capital out of issues which might strictly
0:03:09 > 0:03:12speaking appear to be technical. Earlier I spoke to Professor Stuart
0:03:12 > 0:03:16Cameron, Vice President of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers.
0:03:16 > 0:03:19And in Aberdeen, the Energy Minister Fergus Ewing. I began by
0:03:19 > 0:03:26asking the professor why he thought the Government targets were not
0:03:26 > 0:03:33plausible. Our concern is how to achieve it in that time frame. We
0:03:33 > 0:03:38have been looking at it. You say that there has been extensive
0:03:38 > 0:03:42building on wind farms and so on. They have been in locations where
0:03:42 > 0:03:46there are relatively small turbines. They are now at the stage when
0:03:46 > 0:03:50there are larger wind turbines, going offshore, going into
0:03:50 > 0:03:55technology which is that the development stage just now, several
0:03:55 > 0:04:01years before it can be implemented. To increase it fivefold, from the
0:04:01 > 0:04:05current investment, is a very difficult target to achieve, both
0:04:05 > 0:04:09in terms of the engineering requirements and in terms of
0:04:09 > 0:04:15manufacture, infrastructure, and the National Grid. I think that is
0:04:15 > 0:04:20recognised. We have looked at the route map that has been produced
0:04:20 > 0:04:25for renewables. That is a top-level document. What we are saying is
0:04:25 > 0:04:30that they need to go to the next level, it to say, look, let's do
0:04:30 > 0:04:36some proper engineering, some rigour, to look at these actual
0:04:36 > 0:04:41achievements. Then we can look at where we are going to. The gist of
0:04:41 > 0:04:46that is that your targets are more hope than expectation. Our targets
0:04:46 > 0:04:52are ambitious, yes, but we believe they are achievable. So do a great
0:04:52 > 0:04:56number of experts, including engineers such as Professor Jim
0:04:56 > 0:05:06McDonald, he chairs the Energy Advisory Board with the first
0:05:06 > 0:05:08
0:05:08 > 0:05:12minister. And other practitioners as well. We can talk names, but a
0:05:12 > 0:05:17lot of Stuart Cameron's members are companies and people that build
0:05:17 > 0:05:22this stuff. You can talk names but the substance of the issue is that
0:05:22 > 0:05:27they are saying that you have not produced any detailed engineering
0:05:27 > 0:05:31plans to show how you are going to achieve these goals. May I say
0:05:31 > 0:05:38where we stand at the moment, Gordon? Where we stand at the
0:05:38 > 0:05:42moment is that one third of our capacity is renewables. If you
0:05:42 > 0:05:46consider those renewable applications, constructed or
0:05:46 > 0:05:51consented, that takes us to 60%. And if you consider those that are
0:05:51 > 0:05:55planned, in the pipeline, that takes us up to 17 gigawatts,
0:05:55 > 0:05:59roughly three times more energy than is consumed in Scotland. I
0:05:59 > 0:06:04know we have got a long way to go and we work with and we want to
0:06:04 > 0:06:09work with technical experts such as Professor Cameron. I would be very
0:06:09 > 0:06:17happy if the Institute wish to meet with us to engage with them on this.
0:06:17 > 0:06:24But we believe that we have a deliverable plan already. OK...
0:06:24 > 0:06:27are intent on succeeding. What is wrong with that, in your view?
0:06:27 > 0:06:32guarantee that we support that and our institution would be more than
0:06:32 > 0:06:38happy to do so. Do you dispute the figures that he has just outlined?
0:06:38 > 0:06:42That something like 80% is already in the bag? It is in the pipeline.
0:06:43 > 0:06:48What has been achieved today has been relatively easy to achieve.
0:06:48 > 0:06:53The latter part, in terms of going offshore with larger turbines, the
0:06:53 > 0:06:59whole maintenance issues, to a certain extent it is unproven in a
0:06:59 > 0:07:04harsh environment. Yes, we agree with the initial figures, where we
0:07:04 > 0:07:12have got to today. I would call it the Low Hanging fruit. The wind
0:07:12 > 0:07:17farms have been located in easier places. You are also making a
0:07:17 > 0:07:23stronger point. Far from Scotland being self-sufficient in terms of
0:07:23 > 0:07:27renewables, actually over the next 10 years or so it will become a net
0:07:27 > 0:07:32importer of power of electricity from England. That is because you
0:07:32 > 0:07:37need a base load. We all recognise and accept that there are days when
0:07:37 > 0:07:45the winds do not blow. Therefore the availability for a wind farm is
0:07:45 > 0:07:55somewhere between 0% and 100%. In reality it is probably about 25-30%.
0:07:55 > 0:07:56
0:07:56 > 0:08:00That is the experience of Germany and Denmark. Hang on. Being a net
0:08:00 > 0:08:04importer is a long way from what you want to see. We are an exporter
0:08:04 > 0:08:08and we will continue to export. Our target is not that we produce all
0:08:09 > 0:08:13of the electricity in Scotland. All of electricity generated should be
0:08:13 > 0:08:18generated from renewable sources. Our target is that the electricity
0:08:19 > 0:08:25that we can sue in Scotland should be produced from renewable sources.
0:08:25 > 0:08:30-- that we consume. We want to produce twice as much as that.
0:08:30 > 0:08:35Professor Cameron is absolutely correct in saying that we will
0:08:35 > 0:08:40continue to need conventional power sources. We are supportive of that.
0:08:40 > 0:08:45I engage regularly, as they did today, with the gas network. I
0:08:45 > 0:08:50spoke at a hydropower conference today. �100 million of investment
0:08:50 > 0:08:57is being held up because of delays by Westminster. So there is a
0:08:57 > 0:09:05balance. You cannot both be right. Yes, we are in net exporter
0:09:05 > 0:09:13currently. But between now and 2020, one of the power stations will be
0:09:13 > 0:09:19decommissioned. So we will be left with a gas-fired plant, hopefully,
0:09:19 > 0:09:24or whatever, and the one at Peterhead. If you take them out of
0:09:24 > 0:09:28the equation, what we are exporting right now is primarily the
0:09:28 > 0:09:32electricity it from the Totnes power station. If we are only left
0:09:32 > 0:09:37with that gas-fired plant and the one at Peterhead, and if you go
0:09:38 > 0:09:43from zero to 100% for renewables, the converse of that is that when
0:09:43 > 0:09:53you have no wind blowing and it is 0%, you need 100% base load from a
0:09:53 > 0:09:53
0:09:53 > 0:09:56conventional plant, or nuclear. We achieve that just now. By 2020
0:09:56 > 0:10:00there needs to be another plant or a nuclear plant, either of which
0:10:00 > 0:10:06would take five for seven years to come into fruition. Can I answer
0:10:06 > 0:10:13that? Briefly because I want to move on. We accept that there must
0:10:13 > 0:10:20be a base load. We reckon that looking to 2020, we would need four
0:10:20 > 0:10:24gigawatts. I am on record as saying that the case for existing power
0:10:24 > 0:10:31stations is strong and we will need it to keep the lights on. I have
0:10:31 > 0:10:36also said that if the nuclear power stations, in particular the one you
0:10:36 > 0:10:40are alluding to, which may have a life until 2030, providing the case
0:10:40 > 0:10:50is made on economic grounds, we will not stand in the way. There
0:10:50 > 0:10:50
0:10:50 > 0:10:56does need to be a variety because wind power Mr is intermittent.
0:10:56 > 0:11:00have just said a word that we do not hear on this programme!
0:11:00 > 0:11:04hear something new every day. As I do when I engage with people like
0:11:04 > 0:11:09Professor Cameron. We are working with everyone in the industry in a
0:11:09 > 0:11:13positive way to achieve our targets. As we believe, as many other
0:11:13 > 0:11:16experts in the industry believe, they are ambitious but achievable.
0:11:16 > 0:11:24I just want to move on briefly and get your response to the other
0:11:24 > 0:11:30stuff that has happened this week. That is the report by city group.
0:11:30 > 0:11:33In terms of price, the entire renewable energy in Britain depends
0:11:33 > 0:11:37on the renewable obligation certificates effectively subsidised
0:11:37 > 0:11:43by the consumer. If you have an independent Scotland it ceases to
0:11:43 > 0:11:50be viable. The cost, spread across UK consumers, would be financed by
0:11:50 > 0:11:54Scottish consumers and state aid. We believe that that is flawed,
0:11:54 > 0:12:00because it fails to recognise the facts. The facts are that over the
0:12:00 > 0:12:04last 12 months we have seen investment of �750 million in
0:12:04 > 0:12:08renewable projects. And we have got... I understand that. There
0:12:08 > 0:12:12point was that if Scotland became independent they would not be
0:12:12 > 0:12:15guaranteed to be part of the national grid of Britain. There
0:12:15 > 0:12:22point was that uncertainty is created by the fact that we are
0:12:22 > 0:12:28proposing to have a referendum. If that was correct, then so is
0:12:28 > 0:12:34everybody has known in Scotland about our plans for a referendum
0:12:34 > 0:12:37for the last five years, why on earth would there have been �750
0:12:37 > 0:12:42million of investment in renewable energy in this country? They can't
0:12:42 > 0:12:46have it both ways. It is not just the past investment. It is the
0:12:46 > 0:12:51future investment. Up to �46 billion of investment in renewable
0:12:51 > 0:12:56projects is in the pipeline, including 10 gigawatts of offshore
0:12:56 > 0:13:01wind which is 1.5 times the energy consumed in Scotland. Scotland is a
0:13:01 > 0:13:07great place to invest. Some people disagree but billions of pounds of
0:13:07 > 0:13:13investors' agree. Briefly, is it a concern to you and your members at
0:13:13 > 0:13:18the prospect of independence could cause uncertainty? We look purely
0:13:18 > 0:13:23from one engineering focal point in terms of saying what engineering
0:13:23 > 0:13:30capability is required. Whether there is an independent Scotland or
0:13:30 > 0:13:34not, the same technical issues remain. Thank you very much.
0:13:34 > 0:13:39This week we have had name-calling, misquotes, insults, public
0:13:39 > 0:13:46ecologies and even a surreal cartoon of Alex Salmond as an
0:13:47 > 0:13:54Arabian camel herd of. -- public apologies. Some of this would not
0:13:54 > 0:14:04be out of place in the playground. What has been going on?
0:14:04 > 0:14:40
0:14:40 > 0:14:47This is the ritual Dictionary from 1755. Febrile. From spirits
0:14:47 > 0:14:54employee did in blood and turgid and affected by the fermentation. I
0:14:54 > 0:14:57think he is getting over-excited. Before the members were workshy and
0:14:57 > 0:15:03paid for nothing, the evidence points to the opposite. In recent
0:15:03 > 0:15:09times they have not stopped and never been so busy not to say
0:15:09 > 0:15:14febrile and revealing their worst side. Their behaviour has been
0:15:14 > 0:15:19closer to the playground than parliamentary chamber. The economy
0:15:19 > 0:15:23is in the red and the pension is disappearing, if not your job. AC
0:15:23 > 0:15:30in army is a waiting in the Eurozone and something else. You
0:15:30 > 0:15:40are heading for an independence referendum. What are the MPs and
0:15:40 > 0:15:48MSPs up to? We had an apology for an insulting Liberal Democrat Cup
0:15:48 > 0:15:53team. Apologies for a misleading view about an academic. Eight
0:15:53 > 0:15:57Labour MP warned a woman that she would be in trouble and a
0:15:57 > 0:16:06researcher apologised for going over the top in an e-mail claiming
0:16:06 > 0:16:10misogyny. Who could forget the speech here? You will be attacked.
0:16:10 > 0:16:19You will be spared. You will be like about and you will be
0:16:19 > 0:16:28threatened. Sneer. To spread an oily, greasy or white substance
0:16:28 > 0:16:35oboe something to sell it by all soil a reputation. But why is this
0:16:35 > 0:16:38going on? Is it just displacement activity? Hartley 8 loss.
0:16:38 > 0:16:44referendum campaign has kicked off and people are getting very nervous
0:16:44 > 0:16:48about it. The opposition are not going for the tactic of jumping on
0:16:48 > 0:16:53the second questioned. Independence is not going up in the polls the
0:16:53 > 0:16:57way they would like and the opposition are getting nervous. The
0:16:57 > 0:17:02referendum campaign has kicked off. People are on the doorstep and the
0:17:02 > 0:17:07opposition party did not have leaders and understand what they
0:17:07 > 0:17:13are saying. Plenty of tension at the moment. Is it just the heat is
0:17:13 > 0:17:18being turned up and they do not know how to respond? There are high
0:17:18 > 0:17:23stakes. Stick your head under the covers and it will all passed to
0:17:23 > 0:17:28the next phase of the campaign. They will stop saying, he is not
0:17:28 > 0:17:35being very nice and I do not like have. We will get to the substance
0:17:35 > 0:17:42but we are in that fake area. People are up tight and nervous.
0:17:42 > 0:17:47They have got this visceral hatred between Labour and the SNP. Now and
0:17:47 > 0:17:55again with events, it does bubble to the surface and it is an ugly
0:17:55 > 0:18:04stain in politics and it puts the public offer. -- off. The last
0:18:04 > 0:18:14thing we need is for leaders to become upset, confused, bewildered,
0:18:14 > 0:18:14
0:18:14 > 0:18:21I'm joined now by the political analyst, Gerry Hassan. Why is
0:18:21 > 0:18:26everything nasty in your view? we take Labour and the SNP into
0:18:26 > 0:18:35part of Scottish culture, we have had a bad history. Hatred ever
0:18:35 > 0:18:44since 1967. People look at that and they say that it is ingrained.
0:18:44 > 0:18:48There is a vociferous hatred. A even visceral hatred?! We have to
0:18:48 > 0:18:54look at the wider context. We do not do this very well in like that.
0:18:54 > 0:19:00We deal with people different from ourselves. Is it a narrow political
0:19:00 > 0:19:05thing? We have got that you among Labour people that the nationalists
0:19:05 > 0:19:12are not a political party in the ordinary sense. They want to break
0:19:12 > 0:19:17up Britain. You do not deal with them like the Tories. In a way that
0:19:17 > 0:19:24is a specific thing about Scottish politics and not a broader thing
0:19:24 > 0:19:28about culture. I think it is about how we categorise and label people.
0:19:28 > 0:19:35It goes across society and culture and football. But we have got
0:19:35 > 0:19:40something specific in the relationship. My argument would be
0:19:40 > 0:19:46whatever they do, the Labour hatred goes deeper from top to bottom.
0:19:46 > 0:19:52They were the dominant party for years and they were threatened.
0:19:52 > 0:19:57This seems illegitimate to them. The first rule of conflict is
0:19:57 > 0:20:05understand and empathise the enemy. Do not apologise but they have not
0:20:05 > 0:20:10got t first base. What would count as getting to first base? They are
0:20:10 > 0:20:17not that different from Labour. The conventional argument is that they
0:20:18 > 0:20:22are not that different. But it is much deeper. The Labour view of the
0:20:22 > 0:20:32SNP and the wider cultural points are complicated. We have got hatred
0:20:32 > 0:20:33
0:20:33 > 0:20:39on bedside, like Celtic and Labour -- Rangers. We have got a lot of
0:20:39 > 0:20:44sinners and not many saints. Is it a lack of balance? We talk about
0:20:44 > 0:20:51top-to-bottom hatred. We have got the support of people loving
0:20:51 > 0:20:58conspiracy theories. But does the SNP leadership not have the same
0:20:58 > 0:21:05attitude towards Labour has Labour do to them? I think that is right
0:21:05 > 0:21:13on evidence. If we look at Ian Gray and Ian Davidson. The concept of
0:21:13 > 0:21:18separation does not help anybody. Who is in favour? Many nationalists.
0:21:18 > 0:21:23Alex Neil or Kenny MacAskill were the last politicians. They are
0:21:23 > 0:21:28either brilliant actors or it is genuine. We have got hatred in part
0:21:28 > 0:21:37of the movement. Look at institutions like the BBC and the
0:21:37 > 0:21:42press. It is not very helpful. want to tell me the much broader
0:21:42 > 0:21:46cultural issue and I will not deny you the opportunity. I think we
0:21:46 > 0:21:52have got something deep about difference and having lots of
0:21:52 > 0:22:00problems with that. We can see that in football, gender and sexuality
0:22:00 > 0:22:07and lots of things where people stand out and have a problem.
0:22:07 > 0:22:12do you mean people that stand out? To people operate differently? What
0:22:12 > 0:22:21about that Japanese phrase about the male getting hammered down? I
0:22:21 > 0:22:29did not think we have at here. -- the nail. The politics we are
0:22:29 > 0:22:34talking about... We are questioning that. We genuinely tend to get
0:22:34 > 0:22:40criticism. We are coming to terms with things like gender and
0:22:40 > 0:22:45sexuality. Issues that other sides deal with it more easily.
0:22:45 > 0:22:53Sectarianism as well. We have got a very fraught debate and we are not
0:22:53 > 0:23:00getting to the issues. But Scotland is a civil society might England.
0:23:00 > 0:23:05It is not. -- like England. We have got a much more drink orientated
0:23:05 > 0:23:11culture. We have got to deal with these issues and we want to tell
0:23:11 > 0:23:17each other comforting stories about ourselves. But with all that venom,
0:23:17 > 0:23:21it disguises the fundamentals. will have to leave if there. We
0:23:21 > 0:23:26will look at the front pages and will look at the front pages and
0:23:27 > 0:23:32start with the Scotsman... This is about British funding for the
0:23:32 > 0:23:42Eyemouth which could go to the you resent. -- the International
0:23:42 > 0:23:42
0:23:42 > 0:23:51Monetary Fund. -- the Eurozone. Chaos in the Guardian. The