:00:14. > :00:18.Tonight on Newsnight Scotland, yet another new year dominated by foul
:00:18. > :00:21.weather. A year since the biggest of freezes, today much of Scotland
:00:21. > :00:25.suffered record-breaking storms. We'll ask exactly why today's storm
:00:25. > :00:32.was worse than expected, what the authorities have learned and what
:00:32. > :00:36.we can expect to happen next. Good evening. Happy new year. Well,
:00:36. > :00:39.it's not been a happy start for the tens of thousands of households who
:00:39. > :00:43.lost electricity because of the storms, while thousands more who
:00:43. > :00:45.have seen their homes or other property damaged by gusts close to
:00:45. > :00:48.100mph. Official forecasts predicted last night that the
:00:49. > :00:52.country would be hit by seriously windy weather. Today was still a
:00:52. > :00:55.holiday for many people in Scotland. There's a feeling tonight that
:00:55. > :01:05.things could have been worse. First, David Allison has compiled the
:01:05. > :01:07.
:01:07. > :01:12.story of the day. Footage from traffic cameras look like a
:01:12. > :01:16.Hollywood disaster movie. Vehicles moved cautiously trying to avoid
:01:16. > :01:23.obstacles like fallen trees. But the winds in the city centre the M8
:01:23. > :01:27.was closed after lorries overturned. High winds and high tide meant the
:01:27. > :01:37.collide burst its banks in the city centre, and anything not fixed down
:01:37. > :01:41.
:01:41. > :01:51.For those trying to brave the elements and get to work, it was
:01:51. > :01:55.
:01:55. > :02:00.The Met Office had predicted winds of up to 80mph, but the reality was
:02:01. > :02:07.gusts up to 102, which registered in Edinburgh. This is certainly
:02:07. > :02:11.worse than the 8th December last year. We've got values around 20 or
:02:11. > :02:21.even 25mph higher in both the Glasgow and Edinburgh areas, which
:02:21. > :02:21.
:02:21. > :02:24.takes us back again to the Boxing Day storm of '98. The Christmas
:02:24. > :02:29.tree in George Square was brought down and rail services came it a
:02:29. > :02:34.halt. The train this morning to catch the
:02:34. > :02:38.ferry, the only good news is I'm not on a ferry in the Irish Sea at
:02:38. > :02:41.the moment, which is probably worse than being in Glasgow. I don't know
:02:41. > :02:45.what the ferries are like at the moment. It was very rough last week
:02:45. > :02:48.when I was working. I don't know what it's like today. I'm waiting
:02:48. > :02:51.for the line to clear. I'll get there eventually. You can't control
:02:51. > :03:01.the weather. What can you do, you can't do anything about it, can
:03:01. > :03:01.
:03:01. > :03:09.you? Try again tomorrow. Damage to buildings was widespread,
:03:09. > :03:14.including this one near Glasgow. The wind -- the wind was blowing
:03:14. > :03:24.really high, the next thing was the bricks and all that all come down.
:03:24. > :03:29.
:03:29. > :03:39.Viewers sent in their own pictures In leedge a wheelie bin was blown
:03:39. > :04:10.
:04:10. > :04:17.hundreds of yards down the street. And trees which had stood for
:04:17. > :04:27.decades were felled. We today been a Scottish Bank Holiday, people
:04:27. > :04:27.
:04:27. > :04:37.tended to be philosophical. electricity, no trains. Everything
:04:37. > :04:44.
:04:44. > :04:49.from brickwork flying around and Considering the massive forces
:04:49. > :04:54.unleashed by Mother Nature, we appear to have got off relatively
:04:54. > :04:56.lightly, apart for the need for a massive clear up.
:04:56. > :05:01.Scotland's Transport Minister is Keith Brown. You'll recall he was
:05:01. > :05:05.appointed just over a year ago when his predecessor stepped down after
:05:05. > :05:11.particularly unpleasant weather. A short while ago he came into our
:05:11. > :05:13.studio. I asked him to describe the problems he'd faced this morning.
:05:13. > :05:18.Mainly through falling debris and trees, particularly on roads and
:05:18. > :05:22.also on railways. That causes major problems, especially the railways.
:05:22. > :05:27.First, they have to be removed. For that, there are over 350 teams out
:05:27. > :05:31.with chain sauz to remove them. After those trees were removed the
:05:31. > :05:34.lines have to be made clear and certified as clear of all obstacles
:05:34. > :05:38.for safe running of trains. It caused significant problems. In
:05:38. > :05:41.addition to that, there were problems with power lines. Even
:05:42. > :05:45.some masonry in built up areas came off roofs and so on. You were
:05:45. > :05:50.expecting a big wind. You weren't quite expecting that, were you?
:05:50. > :05:54.advice from the Met yesterday was an amber warning, very high winds
:05:54. > :05:59.between 75-80mph. Today that changed, first thing this morning
:05:59. > :06:03.it said it was going to be a red alert. That changed things. The
:06:03. > :06:06.wind speeds got up to 103mph in Edinburgh. That changed in the
:06:06. > :06:11.course of the night. Obviously things are quieter today because
:06:11. > :06:19.it's a public holiday. We had all the problems last winter. This is
:06:19. > :06:23.the third big wind we've had in the past month. Is there any evidence,
:06:23. > :06:27.this is different because it's a bank holiday, is there any evidence
:06:27. > :06:31.people are paying attention to warnings about going out? Yes,
:06:31. > :06:34.particularly during the bad winds we had in December. We had reduced
:06:34. > :06:37.levels of traffic than we would normally expect. There is evidence
:06:37. > :06:41.that the general public are heeding the warnings, which we're grateful
:06:41. > :06:45.for because it helps us tremendously. And also high sided
:06:45. > :06:50.vehicles. The work with the Road Haulage Association paid dividends.
:06:50. > :06:54.Many of their members kept their trucks off the road. There was talk,
:06:54. > :06:59.wasn't there, last year, about the fact, I'm not sure if anything was
:06:59. > :07:04.done about it, there was a plan to stop high-sided, not high-sided,
:07:04. > :07:08.but to stop articulated trucks driving when the snow and ice got
:07:09. > :07:12.really bad. Did anything ever come of that? That's a contingency plan
:07:12. > :07:17.that's there, with the people I mention previously. If there was
:07:17. > :07:20.very bad snow and ice on the motorway they would take it onto
:07:20. > :07:24.the hard shoulder and then put back on the roads when they're clear.
:07:24. > :07:30.Once the road is gritted, the vehicles help very much in helping
:07:31. > :07:34.to make sure the road is passable. That was a con tinkcy plan for --
:07:34. > :07:40.contingency plan for snow and ice. Isn't there an obvious case for
:07:40. > :07:45.having a similar plan for high winds? Because, I mean, let's face
:07:45. > :07:48.it, an articulated truck falling over on top of something else can
:07:48. > :07:51.be more dangerous than the average truck jackknifing on the ice.
:07:51. > :07:55.That's right and they're more prone to it because of the shape. We have
:07:55. > :07:59.that plan because we have contacted the representative organisations as
:07:59. > :08:04.well as issuing general advice to high sided vehicles. It can apply
:08:04. > :08:10.to perm vehicles as well. There were a lot often the roads today. I
:08:10. > :08:13.passed two that looks like dinky trucks, lying on their side on the
:08:13. > :08:17.M9. They clearly should by definition shouldn't have been out
:08:17. > :08:20.in what they were out in. That is true. What we're not wanting to do
:08:20. > :08:24.is give the false impression this wasn't heeded. We know many trucks
:08:24. > :08:28.were kept off the roads. There is not a legal enforcement to say you
:08:28. > :08:32.cannot travel. The police can't issue that kind of advice. They can
:08:32. > :08:35.take action if they think someone driving dangerously. The -- I
:08:35. > :08:39.thought the snow and ice thing was going to be legally enforceable?
:08:39. > :08:43.That was done with the agreement of the various conditions that they
:08:43. > :08:48.agreed to do that and the police would enforce it. It's better to do
:08:48. > :08:52.these things on a voluntary basis. Today we've had the police issuing
:08:52. > :08:57.the warnings, particularly a level four warning, don't travel. We've
:08:57. > :09:02.had the general vice to the public. We have in place agreements with
:09:02. > :09:05.the RHA... About high winds? Yes. If that doesn't work and to some
:09:05. > :09:10.extent, it clearly didn't work, could you take powers to just
:09:10. > :09:13.legally enforce this? I don't think we'd want to do that. We have a
:09:13. > :09:17.tradition of policing by consent. The police give the advice. The
:09:17. > :09:20.more these things happen and the more we have the extreme weather
:09:20. > :09:24.events, the more the message is getting through. We've seen an
:09:24. > :09:28.improved response from the public and haulage sector. We will push
:09:28. > :09:32.that process. That's, of things you have control of, it looks, if a
:09:32. > :09:38.chimney is going to fall off and go through a roof, as happened today,
:09:38. > :09:44.there's not much anyone can do to see that in advance. The huge great
:09:44. > :09:48.trucks allow -- are liable to fall over is foreseeable. It's happened
:09:48. > :09:51.in three times over recent weeks, we've had a good response from the
:09:52. > :09:56.sector. The evidence is there for those who have come short today,
:09:56. > :09:59.they've managed to get their trucks blown over in high winds. That will
:09:59. > :10:04.be a lesson not lost on those driving. We're doing this through
:10:04. > :10:07.the police, who imposed a 40mph speed limit today, reducing the
:10:07. > :10:10.likelihood of those kind of incidents. That has worked
:10:10. > :10:20.relatively well. We will continue time prove that each time we have
:10:20. > :10:26.
:10:26. > :10:30.You'd presumably get advanced forecasts. I know it is difficult
:10:30. > :10:36.to forecast for the far out, but what are they telling you about
:10:36. > :10:46.what we can expect for the rest of this winter? The most recent
:10:46. > :10:47.
:10:47. > :10:56.forecast I have seen says we expect a milder winter. It will be wetter
:10:56. > :10:59.and windier. There is less of a likelihood of snow. So we are
:10:59. > :11:06.likely to get what we were getting this time last year and maybe we
:11:06. > :11:11.could have more high it winds? is right. This recent episode was
:11:11. > :11:20.not notified to us until very late on. It can happen very quickly and
:11:20. > :11:25.that might not show up on a three- month forecast. Thank you.
:11:25. > :11:29.The Met Office's chief adviser to England and Northern Ireland is
:11:29. > :11:33.Alex Hill. He is in Edinburgh now. There were particular reasons why
:11:33. > :11:43.this storm was worse than anyone expected, wasn't there? I think
:11:43. > :11:49.
:11:49. > :11:59.what happened was the bloke itself was deeper. -- the low. Secondly,
:11:59. > :12:03.it started around 7 o'clock in the morning and there is something
:12:03. > :12:10.called a sting jet which comes from the middle part of the Agnus fair,
:12:10. > :12:20.well above the surface. It is quite narrow and dense and very strong. I
:12:20. > :12:25.think it is what gave us that sudden increase. You can just about
:12:25. > :12:31.make it out on the 8 o'clock satellite pictures. You can see a
:12:31. > :12:38.very narrow clear spot in the cloud, which indicate what it is. Does it
:12:38. > :12:43.look like the eye of a hurricane? It isn't. It is on the bottom left-
:12:43. > :12:53.hand side of the Hook of cloud that you see an Distin jet comes down
:12:53. > :13:03.
:13:03. > :13:10.there. Why does it happen? Why is it unusual? -- and the sting jet.
:13:10. > :13:20.It is to do with a rapid descent and the pressure. It happens for a
:13:20. > :13:26.
:13:26. > :13:36.short period, but it is huge in terms of the ghastliness.
:13:36. > :13:37.
:13:37. > :13:47.ghastliness. The amber warning except the winds would hit about 80
:13:47. > :13:51.
:13:51. > :13:57.mph. But there was a cabbie at. -- It is a question of developing and
:13:57. > :14:04.as we get more information, we can be more precise about what the
:14:04. > :14:08.maximum winds are likely to be. sting a jet was a particular actor
:14:08. > :14:16.into day's events, but this is the third biggest storm what we have
:14:16. > :14:25.had in a month. -- a particular factor. Why are we getting these
:14:25. > :14:29.storms? Is it something to do with the jet stream? It is all about the
:14:29. > :14:34.track of the depressions. They seem to be stuck in this pattern of
:14:34. > :14:44.coming in from the West, South West and going up towards the north of
:14:44. > :14:45.
:14:45. > :14:48.Scotland. Last year, we were on the other side of it. The low pressures
:14:48. > :14:58.are being tracked by the jet streams, which are very strong at
:14:58. > :14:59.
:14:59. > :15:06.the moment. We get all the rain and all the strong winds. A it possible
:15:06. > :15:11.to say we are likely to get more of these? To get that extreme, you
:15:11. > :15:15.have to be very close to them. What we are looking at, especially over
:15:16. > :15:25.the next 10-15 days, we are looking at everything coming in from the
:15:26. > :15:27.
:15:27. > :15:36.West, which is mild. Over the next couple of days, we will be thinking
:15:36. > :15:43.about another hazard. There will be lots of rain and there could be
:15:43. > :15:47.land slips. Again, the focus has to change slowly. We have to think
:15:47. > :15:53.about flooding, especially on agricultural land which is very
:15:53. > :16:01.sodden at the moment. Did trouble with landslides is a bit like the
:16:01. > :16:05.chimney going through a roof. There are certain places that because it
:16:05. > :16:12.has happened before, you can think about it, but it is a bit
:16:12. > :16:20.unpredictable. You can estimate the likely would. You can put a risk
:16:20. > :16:30.factor on it and people can be made aware of what could happen. It is
:16:30. > :16:36.
:16:36. > :16:39.not something you can stop happening. Now, all the technology
:16:39. > :16:44.you used to try and predict the weather, or are you pretty sure we
:16:44. > :16:53.are not going to lapse into the same kind of weather we had
:16:53. > :16:59.problems with last winter and that winter before? There is no sign of
:16:59. > :17:04.it. That is not to say we will not get snow, but it will not be as