0:00:08 > 0:00:10but they're not an alternative to It's been described as the biggest
0:00:10 > 0:00:12decision Scots will make in 300 years. Little wonder the
0:00:12 > 0:00:17independence referendum is dominating political debate and
0:00:17 > 0:00:26could do so for years to come. Today's latest salvo was over
0:00:26 > 0:00:32defence, but who is winning the fight for public opinion? And how
0:00:32 > 0:00:38important are these early battles with a long campaign ahead?
0:00:38 > 0:00:41Tonight, who is winning the early skirmishes over the referendum?
0:00:41 > 0:00:43Westminster lays claim to the legal authority, while Holyrood boasts it
0:00:43 > 0:00:46has the popular mandate. Meetings are pencilled in between First
0:00:46 > 0:00:51Minister, Secretary of State and Prime Minister. They are inching
0:00:51 > 0:00:54towards agreement on the details. In the studio we have a trio of
0:00:54 > 0:01:02informed observers with conflicting views. First, Derek Bateman debates
0:01:02 > 0:01:10the outstanding questions with himself.
0:01:10 > 0:01:14It's a sing hrar event, we now know there will be a referendum. Won't
0:01:14 > 0:01:24there? Unless Westminster rules it illegal and it ends newspaper the
0:01:24 > 0:01:25
0:01:25 > 0:01:28That's a good point. David Cameron says Scotland can't hold a
0:01:28 > 0:01:32referendum legally because it's prohibited in the Scotland Act.
0:01:32 > 0:01:36Without London's say so the advocate General says it would
0:01:36 > 0:01:39actually be undemocratic, for a Government to consult its own
0:01:39 > 0:01:45citizens? Technically it may be against the Act but what about the
0:01:45 > 0:01:49claim of right signed by Jim Wallace declaring the people, not
0:01:49 > 0:01:52parliament, are Sovereign. Mr Salmond says if it's a simple
0:01:52 > 0:01:58matter of legality then give give Scotland the powers, but without
0:01:58 > 0:02:04London dictating the terms. So far, impasse. Well, at least we know the
0:02:04 > 0:02:12date, autumn, 2014. Well, we know within three months and that's if
0:02:12 > 0:02:17Mr Salmond sticks to the timetable. He doesn't have to.
0:02:17 > 0:02:20Mr Salmond is committed to a consultation, but beyond that if
0:02:20 > 0:02:26the pandas start dancing a highland jig and there is a political crisis
0:02:26 > 0:02:31in London, if the stars align to form a cosmic soltar in the night
0:02:31 > 0:02:36sky Mr Salmond can abandon the timing and go for it, he is not a
0:02:36 > 0:02:40time-keeper, he is a politician. Well, we do know what the question
0:02:40 > 0:02:44will be. We know what the first question will be. But we don't know
0:02:44 > 0:02:53the second question. Or even if there's going to be a second
0:02:53 > 0:02:58question. This is at the heart of the standoff. London is determined
0:02:58 > 0:03:01not to put the question with the biggest potential yes answer, more
0:03:01 > 0:03:06powers for Holyrood, not just because they don't want more powers
0:03:06 > 0:03:10but because they're gambling the no vote will win and wound Mr Sal
0:03:10 > 0:03:13Salmond. Mr Salmond is also unsure he can win so wants a fallback as a
0:03:13 > 0:03:17consolation victory. The unity with the leadership of the Tories,
0:03:17 > 0:03:22Labour and the Lib Dems on refusing a second question may turn out to
0:03:22 > 0:03:25be their weak point F it lookss like an unholy alliance flying in
0:03:26 > 0:03:29the face of the will of the people how long can it be maintained?
0:03:29 > 0:03:38Labour's already saying they will offer another referendum rather
0:03:38 > 0:03:45than a second question. At least we know who will be
0:03:45 > 0:03:53allowed to vote. Yes, we do. Unless they open it up to teenagers of 16
0:03:53 > 0:03:59and 17 and to every ex-pat on the face of the earth. And that's
0:03:59 > 0:04:04hundreds of thousands. Maybe as many as a million. What about the
0:04:04 > 0:04:14London Scots and others around the globe. Even Rabby planned to head
0:04:14 > 0:04:19
0:04:19 > 0:04:21for the Americas. Even if In the parliament today the
0:04:21 > 0:04:28Minister called for powers over elections to be transferred from
0:04:28 > 0:04:31London as recommended by the Gould Report. That would allow 16 and 17-
0:04:31 > 0:04:36year-olds the vote but he said Ministers in London were silent on
0:04:36 > 0:04:41the issue. It is absurd that this parliament is not responsible for
0:04:41 > 0:04:44the election of its own members and that we are unable to give 16 and
0:04:44 > 0:04:4717-year-olds their democratic right to vote, even when that is the will
0:04:47 > 0:04:53of this parliament. I am confused now. Is there anything we do know
0:04:53 > 0:04:57the answer to, like who is going to win? Well, that's easy. The
0:04:57 > 0:05:00Scottish people win because whatever they decide is right, and
0:05:00 > 0:05:10it's final. Unless, of course, there is a legal
0:05:10 > 0:05:13challenge. I am now joined from Edinburgh by
0:05:13 > 0:05:16the Spectator's Alex Massie, an avid blogger. Also in the capital
0:05:16 > 0:05:19is a fellow cyber commentator, Kate Higgins, who writes under the name
0:05:19 > 0:05:24BirdsEyeView. And here in the studio is the Lawyer Ian Smart, who
0:05:24 > 0:05:27describes himself online as a lefty lawyer and Labour Party hack. Thank
0:05:27 > 0:05:31you all very much indeed for joining us this evening. Let me
0:05:31 > 0:05:36bring you up to date with the latest controversy over
0:05:36 > 0:05:39independence which is Lord Steel saying the idea of George Osborne
0:05:39 > 0:05:44taking on the no referendum campaign is just plain bonkers,
0:05:44 > 0:05:47saying Alex Salmond would be rubbing his hands at that. Where do
0:05:47 > 0:05:50you think this - what do you think of that idea, do you think Lord
0:05:50 > 0:05:55Steel has a point? Well, Lord Steel has a point point certainly in as
0:05:55 > 0:06:00much as George Osborne is not necessarily the man who if you were
0:06:00 > 0:06:04to construct a pro-union campaign from scratch, he is not necessarily
0:06:05 > 0:06:11the fellow that you would choose to lead it. Nevertheless, it is the
0:06:11 > 0:06:16case that it is mildly proposterous to suppose that the Prime Minister
0:06:16 > 0:06:22of the UK and indeed the Chancellor of the UK, should somehow stay
0:06:22 > 0:06:27south of the border, should somehow never venture north in the three
0:06:28 > 0:06:33years, whatever it is between now and the actual referendum date. As
0:06:33 > 0:06:38a tactical matter yes, Mr Osbourne is unlike throeu rally many voters
0:06:38 > 0:06:43to the unionist cause. But there is a great difference between what
0:06:43 > 0:06:49might be wrong in terms of tactics and what is wrong in terms of
0:06:49 > 0:06:52principle. This notion that the rest of the UK has no legitimacy in
0:06:52 > 0:06:56terms of making a case for the union or about talking about
0:06:56 > 0:07:01Scotland's place within the union and all the rest of it and so on,
0:07:01 > 0:07:06is somewhat fanciful. Regardless of what happens, regardless of what
0:07:06 > 0:07:10decision people of Scotland eventually take, the impact is not
0:07:10 > 0:07:14confined to Scotland and therefore in that respect it is perfectly
0:07:14 > 0:07:19legitimate for voices from other parts of the United Kingdom, not
0:07:19 > 0:07:23just London but also Belfast and Cardiff, and indeed other points of
0:07:23 > 0:07:29the compass, should have a right to have their say. Whether people are
0:07:29 > 0:07:32listening is a different matter. Tack takes and principles, Alex
0:07:32 > 0:07:36Salmond makes a point every time one of these coalition Ministers
0:07:36 > 0:07:40speaks up on the subject of Scotland he thinks he gets another
0:07:40 > 0:07:441,000 votes. Let's be clear, the most owe biding narrative in
0:07:44 > 0:07:48Scottish politics in the last 20 years has been the people's
0:07:48 > 0:07:54mistrust and dislike of the Scottish Conservatives, so if they
0:07:54 > 0:07:58do think they're coming across the border and reading missions with
0:07:58 > 0:08:04wise words to offer in the campaign, then absolutely Alex Salmond will
0:08:04 > 0:08:08be rubbing his hands with glee and he will be maximising the political
0:08:09 > 0:08:17capital out of the interventions at every opportunity. I think Lord
0:08:17 > 0:08:21Steel has a point. It would have been helpful if he made it in more
0:08:21 > 0:08:27temperet language. We need reasoned debate that enables people to make
0:08:27 > 0:08:32a informed decision but he has a point. It should not be - the anti-
0:08:32 > 0:08:37independence campaign cannot be laid, should not be laid -- led by
0:08:37 > 0:08:40nnon-Scots because that will simply polarise opinion further and will
0:08:40 > 0:08:45actually have a number of people voting for independence for the
0:08:45 > 0:08:49wrong reasons. Now the SNP might welcome all votes in all
0:08:49 > 0:08:54circumstances, but we want Scotland to make a positive choice. These
0:08:54 > 0:08:59are exciting times. At long last Scotland has the opportunity to
0:08:59 > 0:09:03have a say and determine its own future and we should be rejoicing
0:09:03 > 0:09:07in that and celebrating that. The sooner we get out of this process,
0:09:07 > 0:09:12which is like the early stages of a chess game, where the players are
0:09:12 > 0:09:17setting out their strategy and moving towards exchanging lower
0:09:17 > 0:09:21ranking pieces, the better because it needs to move out of this being
0:09:21 > 0:09:24a private game for political parties and into a debate on
0:09:24 > 0:09:28Scotland's future in which the people are invited to. On the
0:09:28 > 0:09:32subject of tactics, one of the things, this is related to
0:09:32 > 0:09:35something Kate was saying, one thing clear from the SNP's
0:09:35 > 0:09:39strategically over the last few weeks is if you are not supportive
0:09:39 > 0:09:41of their view, then they're going to try and ally the Labour Party in
0:09:42 > 0:09:51Scotland, particularly with the Conservatives and with that toxic
0:09:52 > 0:09:52
0:09:52 > 0:09:56I don't accept the premise. In the general election almost as many
0:09:56 > 0:09:59people voted Conservative as SNP. There was a much lower turnout at
0:09:59 > 0:10:04the Scottish election. I think it's appropriate that all people who
0:10:04 > 0:10:07think independence would be a disaster for Scotland should work
0:10:07 > 0:10:12together. It doesn't mean tactically you should decide who to
0:10:12 > 0:10:15prioritise - Clive Woodward, you couldn't think of a worse person to
0:10:15 > 0:10:18lead the No campaign than George Osborne, but that's a tactical
0:10:18 > 0:10:21decision. What's your decision of what the Labour Party have done
0:10:22 > 0:10:27over the last fortnight or so? It doesn't seem they have come up with
0:10:27 > 0:10:32a very clear strategy other than to say no to what the SNP are
0:10:32 > 0:10:37proposing. I am not here to speak on behalf of the Labour Party.
0:10:38 > 0:10:43They're in disarray at the moment. I am sure we'll get our act
0:10:43 > 0:10:46together. We have two-and-a-half years. Alex Massie, are we moving
0:10:46 > 0:10:49away from this procedural debate we have had over the last fortnight
0:10:49 > 0:10:54and on to the big questions Kate Higgins is raising? Yes, well,
0:10:54 > 0:11:01that's the theory at any rate. This is a thousand-day campaign. We're
0:11:01 > 0:11:08only in day ten. In that respect, a measure of procedural skirmishing
0:11:08 > 0:11:12is only to be expected. As for the bigger questions, it seems to me,
0:11:12 > 0:11:17actually, that the Conservative Party should ally its with the SNP
0:11:17 > 0:11:23- not with the Labour Party - but with the SNP, and actually make an
0:11:23 > 0:11:27argument for a second question, a question about increasing powers
0:11:27 > 0:11:32for the Scottish Parliament, including, most especially and
0:11:32 > 0:11:35crucially, the part tax. The failure to do that is one of the
0:11:36 > 0:11:39things that the Scottish Conservative Party is one of the
0:11:39 > 0:11:43biggest blunders the Tories have made in the history of devolution.
0:11:43 > 0:11:49You know, for years the Tories have been saying no, no, no to Scotland.
0:11:49 > 0:11:53It is time for anyone with an interest in a right-of-centre
0:11:53 > 0:11:58revival in Scotland Dom out with a plan for say -- to come out with
0:11:58 > 0:12:01plan for saying yes to Scotland. Can they change their minds now,
0:12:01 > 0:12:05though, having already made their views pretty clear over the last
0:12:05 > 0:12:10ten days or so? Probably not, but then the views they have made
0:12:10 > 0:12:17pretty clear are in my view wholly mistaken. You know, the Tories'
0:12:17 > 0:12:22opposition to devo-max, devo-plus, however you want to describe it is
0:12:22 > 0:12:26akin to - let me put it this way - if you asked Conservatives, people
0:12:26 > 0:12:31of the right-of-centre disposition, whether you think Parliament that
0:12:31 > 0:12:34has a spending power but no revenue power could possibly be a
0:12:34 > 0:12:38responsible Parliament, whether it could possibly govern in the best
0:12:38 > 0:12:43interests of its people, they would say no - except in Scotland, where
0:12:43 > 0:12:48apparently that is something that must be assisted upon. The Tories
0:12:48 > 0:12:54would never have set sail on SS Devolution. Now that the ship is
0:12:54 > 0:12:58afloat, however, they seem perplexingly ill-disposed to making
0:12:58 > 0:13:02any repairs that could make it sell better, more efficiently, more
0:13:02 > 0:13:06quickly and, frankly, with greater safety for all those onboard. This
0:13:06 > 0:13:09is a baffling position as far as I am concerned, and I think it's
0:13:09 > 0:13:15wholly regrettable that the Tories yet again appear determined to
0:13:15 > 0:13:21exclude themselves from the larger part of the future constitutional
0:13:21 > 0:13:25debate and insist upon dying in the last ditch of unionism, which will
0:13:25 > 0:13:29doubtless be cluttered with the noble dead, but the noble dead are
0:13:29 > 0:13:33still dead. Kate Higgins, if Alex Massie is to have a two-question
0:13:33 > 0:13:39referendum, who is going to be advocating the second question?
0:13:39 > 0:13:43Well, it would seem those who are opposed to independence are the
0:13:43 > 0:13:47ones who are coalescing around a straight no. I think that's a fatal
0:13:48 > 0:13:52mistake. I think when you look at the opinion polls and if you cast
0:13:52 > 0:13:57your mind back to what happened in May, people voted not only for
0:13:57 > 0:14:01competence, but they also rejected fear and embraced hope. They voted
0:14:01 > 0:14:06for a manifesto that said yes or no to independence, not for a
0:14:06 > 0:14:11manifesto that said yes or no to independence and, A, another.
0:14:11 > 0:14:17there is a lot of political chatter around at the moment whereby the
0:14:17 > 0:14:21anti-Independence Partys are determined not to allow devo-max or
0:14:21 > 0:14:25plus, however you want to phrase it, on to the ballot paper. I think
0:14:25 > 0:14:30that's a mistake. I think people want change. They want the right to
0:14:30 > 0:14:36debate their future. There is a huge majority of - public opinion
0:14:36 > 0:14:38in Scotland in favour of some change and some improvement in our
0:14:38 > 0:14:44devolved settlement. I think they should be working hard to ensure
0:14:44 > 0:14:48that the Scotland bill is souped up with as much in terms of devolution
0:14:48 > 0:14:52as possible so that what is put before the Scottish people as a
0:14:52 > 0:14:58choice between an improved devolution settlement or
0:14:58 > 0:15:01independence - Labour are at real risk of being cast adrift here in
0:15:01 > 0:15:04constitutional no-man's land by the strategy they're adopting to late.
0:15:04 > 0:15:09They do not enjoy the trust of the Scottish people anymore. That has
0:15:09 > 0:15:12been proven not only once but twice in Scottish elections. They cannot
0:15:12 > 0:15:17promise the Scottish people jam tomorrow and hope that - hope that
0:15:17 > 0:15:21people will vote no, and they should not mistake current apathy
0:15:21 > 0:15:25for antipathy towards change. Smart, do you agree? Not at all. It
0:15:25 > 0:15:29seems to me to be a fundamental misunderstanding about what
0:15:29 > 0:15:33devolution is. It's an agreed settlement between Westminster and
0:15:33 > 0:15:37Scotland. I agree with Alex and to some degree Kate we should improve
0:15:37 > 0:15:42on the current system we have, but there is no need to put that to
0:15:42 > 0:15:46referendum. If it's agreed, it is. The SNP promises a referendum on
0:15:46 > 0:15:51independence. They're running as fast as they can away from that
0:15:51 > 0:15:54promise... Are they? They have even given us a season at the moment.
0:15:54 > 0:15:59That's three years away. They want to insert a question that'll get
0:15:59 > 0:16:08them into the knowledge that there will be a legal quagmire, and
0:16:08 > 0:16:12they'll be able to blame somebody else. A -- if they want to have a
0:16:12 > 0:16:17referendum, they have the legal power to do it. If they get into a
0:16:17 > 0:16:22legal mess, it's of their doing. We'll hear from Lord Wallace when
0:16:22 > 0:16:27he gives a speech at a university on why he doesn't think there are
0:16:27 > 0:16:31powers for this referendum. How do you think the Scotland office have
0:16:31 > 0:16:35handled this debate so far? There is a big difference between how the
0:16:35 > 0:16:40Scotland office have handled it and Number Ten have handled it. The
0:16:40 > 0:16:42Scotland office have handled it well. Number Ten have performed
0:16:42 > 0:16:47appallingly. What does that tell us about the cool significance
0:16:47 > 0:16:51Probably that Michael Moore probably has a better idea about
0:16:51 > 0:16:54Scotland than George Osborne. that Michael Moore is not being
0:16:54 > 0:16:57listened to in Downing Street according to your thesis? I think
0:16:57 > 0:17:01what we saw was Michael Moore's statement to the House of Commons
0:17:01 > 0:17:05was admirably restrained, sensible, concentrating on the fact that we
0:17:05 > 0:17:09want to ensure that when a referendum takes place it has the
0:17:09 > 0:17:12legal standing to actually take place free from my challenge in the
0:17:12 > 0:17:17courts. That's a perfectly respectable, sensible, moderate
0:17:17 > 0:17:21view. What was unfortunate was the pre-statement, briefing and
0:17:21 > 0:17:29spinning from Downing Street which suggested all sorts of time limits
0:17:29 > 0:17:34and other constraints, conditions and a whole load of, I don't know,
0:17:34 > 0:17:40political gamesmanship, manoeuvring, shenan gans, all of which was
0:17:40 > 0:17:44deeply unfortunate and too clever by half and a sort of - well, own
0:17:44 > 0:17:48goal scored by people who plainly don't actually have an awful lot to
0:17:48 > 0:17:52say about Scotland and certainly have rather less knowledge of
0:17:52 > 0:17:56Scotland. Michael Moore, however, has been
0:17:56 > 0:18:01reasonably sensible, and I think that's too his credit, and I think
0:18:01 > 0:18:05that, you know, the coalition has learnt from the mistakes that have
0:18:05 > 0:18:09been made and presumably - or at least hopefully - won't blunder
0:18:09 > 0:18:13quite so catastrophically in the future. This is very much a storm
0:18:13 > 0:18:18in a teacup to some extent in that day, one, two - of what is going to
0:18:18 > 0:18:22be a long, drawn-out campaign. that point, Kate, how much do you
0:18:22 > 0:18:26think this resonates with ordinary people, this debate, so far? Is
0:18:26 > 0:18:29this something only people in Westminster care about? Briefly.
0:18:29 > 0:18:33Ordinary people, it doesn't resonate with them at all. This
0:18:33 > 0:18:37stage of the game in the process is for the players and the aficionados
0:18:37 > 0:18:40like ourselves. The sooner we move out of the process and into the
0:18:40 > 0:18:43debate about what kind of Scotland we want to be, the better. Thank
0:18:43 > 0:18:53you very much indeed for joining us this evening. A quick look at
0:18:53 > 0:19:06