:00:10. > :00:15.On Newsnight Scotland tonight, a look back at a week which may prove
:00:15. > :00:18.historic and a look forward to what happens next. Will the Salmond plan
:00:18. > :00:20.for organising the referendum sweep all before it, or will the two
:00:20. > :00:28.government consultations meet in the middle and create a breakout of
:00:28. > :00:31.Good evening. If it's true that even the longest journey begins
:00:31. > :00:37.with a single step, then Scotland has begun to head for the distant
:00:37. > :00:41.horizon of autumn 2014. Brace yourself - we're in for a long trek.
:00:41. > :00:45.Two consultations are under way similtaneously. Two questions are
:00:45. > :00:48.jostling for attention. Two governments are claiming ownership.
:00:48. > :00:52.So far, we haven't even heard from the Scots themselves. We'll discuss
:00:52. > :01:02.what the people think in a minute. First, Derek Bateman looks at the
:01:02. > :01:09.
:01:09. > :01:17.It is the evolution of modern Scotland. We are at the very early
:01:17. > :01:21.stages of development. The consultation begins and we head
:01:21. > :01:27.into the first indicator of opinion, the local elections, and at the end
:01:27. > :01:32.of the consultation, there follows a statement on the legislative
:01:32. > :01:36.programme and finalisation of the bill. Early next year, it incubate
:01:36. > :01:40.in Holly route, then emerges in October and get a royal assent.
:01:40. > :01:47.There will be a White Paper on independence to give life to the
:01:47. > :01:52.debate, leading into the European elections. There's a hiatus. And in
:01:52. > :02:01.summer, the fledgling plan enters the critical 16 week gestation
:02:01. > :02:07.period. Then, with 28 days to go, the government... We vote in the
:02:07. > :02:17.autumn. Scotland are mergers fully grown into an independent nation. -
:02:17. > :02:18.
:02:18. > :02:22.- emerges. Or not. Doors opening. Here's another note for your diary.
:02:22. > :02:26.May 2016, when Scott the next goes to the polls. But there are few
:02:26. > :02:32.issues to be resolved before then. Notably the second question, the
:02:32. > :02:39.one that will not go away. Is it really the trump card of the unions
:02:39. > :02:42.politicians? Aren't you boxing yourself in by saying no to his
:02:42. > :02:46.second question and at the same time making this referendum legally
:02:46. > :02:50.binding? It doesn't give you any wriggle room if the Scots decide
:02:50. > :02:56.actually, we are going to say yes. There's no fall-back position for
:02:56. > :02:59.the unions either. The SNP won a clear mandate for a referendum on
:02:59. > :03:02.independence in the Scottish parliament last year. Very
:03:02. > :03:06.important that a referendum is able to offer both a legal result and
:03:06. > :03:09.one that is clear and decisive and that is why having a single
:03:09. > :03:12.question on the subject of independence is the right way
:03:12. > :03:16.forward and this is what the SNP proposed yesterday and I welcome
:03:16. > :03:21.that. But this is an argument that will happen. We have to engage in
:03:21. > :03:24.the debate and win the argument. I believe we can, but we shouldn't be
:03:24. > :03:27.looking for fall-back positions always to get around this, we
:03:27. > :03:33.should be engaging in the debate and winning it. Will you still be
:03:33. > :03:37.saying that if in a year's time, the opinion polls say 50% for yes
:03:38. > :03:43.and 50% for no? Yes because I think the case for Scots and Scotland
:03:43. > :03:46.within the UK is overwhelmingly powerful in terms of the economic
:03:46. > :03:51.advantages we as Got Game, the political advantages, that strength
:03:51. > :03:56.as part of us and common currency, the social ties that exist across
:03:56. > :04:00.the UK. All of those things are very powerful arguments for the UK
:04:00. > :04:06.and most Scots will choose that route, I think. The theme ran
:04:06. > :04:12.through today's Holyrood debate as members signed a claim of right in
:04:12. > :04:16.1989. The irony being that the SNP did not sign vent and many of those
:04:16. > :04:21.who did now say that Westminster North overrides the will of the
:04:21. > :04:26.people. Do we still believe in the fundamental right of the people,
:04:26. > :04:30.not just to make choices, but are determined the choices available to
:04:30. > :04:35.them? I doubt that the people of Scotland would have any
:04:35. > :04:40.reservations about that and I hope no member of this Parliament today
:04:40. > :04:44.has any reservations either. The Tories at that time were consistent.
:04:44. > :04:49.They opposed any change to the UK and that at least was a clear
:04:49. > :04:53.position, if in my view a wholly mistaken one. The other party which
:04:53. > :04:58.refused to support the claim of right or work within the
:04:58. > :05:03.constitution was the SNP. The very same party who are calling on us
:05:03. > :05:07.today to vote for a motion which is an extract from the 1989 Claim of
:05:08. > :05:12.Right. We had barely clues about key topics that First Minister's
:05:12. > :05:16.Questions. First Minister conceded sycophant live -- significant leak
:05:16. > :05:19.that the Bank of England would be the lender of last resort. Will
:05:19. > :05:23.that mean that John Swinney not only brings his Budget to this
:05:23. > :05:27.chamber, but he has to go to the Bank of England to ask permission
:05:27. > :05:32.on how much he can borrow, what his fiscal policies will be and how
:05:32. > :05:39.much he can spend? We know the First Minister told us this week he
:05:39. > :05:45.is an avowed and a file. Is he not taking it a bit too far? I heard
:05:45. > :05:49.her deputy leader on the radio this morning saying that if Scotland has
:05:49. > :05:54.a monetary union and the Bank of England is lender of last resort,
:05:54. > :06:00.Scotland would lose the ability to set interest rates. I have news for
:06:00. > :06:05.the Labour Party. Their politicians lost the ability to set interest
:06:05. > :06:09.rates on 6th May, 1997, when Gordon Brown declared the Bank of England
:06:09. > :06:13.independent. We got a glimpse of the chasm that exists between the
:06:13. > :06:19.sides. But at least we have kicked off the process that will lead to
:06:19. > :06:22.decision day 24 team. Tonight, Newsnight won this confession from
:06:22. > :06:28.Westminster. There have been some silly suggestions and questions
:06:28. > :06:32.going about lately, including one that that panders might be removed
:06:32. > :06:36.from Edinburgh Zoo because they are a gift to the UK government.
:06:36. > :06:40.think the pandas at Edinburgh Zoo have more pressing business than
:06:40. > :06:42.whether or not they are part of a constitutional debate. I hope they
:06:42. > :06:45.will be at Edinburgh Zoo for many years.
:06:45. > :06:47.I'm joined now by three of Scotland's senior political
:06:47. > :06:52.commentators. Here in Glasgow, Lorraine Davidson and Magnus
:06:52. > :06:58.Linklater, and in Edinburgh, Ian Macwhirter. Good evening to you all.
:06:58. > :07:03.The rain, now the dust has settled after the great events of yesterday,
:07:03. > :07:08.where are we going? The next obvious step will be the result of
:07:08. > :07:11.both the consultations, the Scottish governance and UK
:07:11. > :07:15.governments, and we will probably see surprisingly different results
:07:15. > :07:19.despite asking the same people about the same issue. It is now
:07:19. > :07:24.over to the people of Scotland to come back and say whether they
:07:24. > :07:28.support the question that everyone is going to be looking for. Do they
:07:28. > :07:33.support a third question on that ballot paper? Are you suggesting
:07:33. > :07:38.these consultations are not fair and independent minded works of
:07:38. > :07:41.politics? A suspect anyone who is part of civic Scotland and is in
:07:41. > :07:44.favour of the question is probably going to see the Scottish
:07:44. > :07:48.government consultation as a way of pushing back rather than the
:07:48. > :07:54.Westminster consultation. You were in the Great Hall yesterday, as
:07:54. > :07:57.many of us were. What did you make of Alex Salmond's used a VAT venue
:07:57. > :08:04.and where do you think that takes us? What does it tell us about
:08:04. > :08:12.where this will go? Very typical Alex Salmond gesture. Tremendous
:08:12. > :08:17.atmosphere, I have to say. Winds howling around outside, the world's
:08:17. > :08:23.media there and Alex Salmond on the platform. Once again, he is on the
:08:23. > :08:30.front foot, no question about it. He has set the agenda and the
:08:30. > :08:35.consultation will begin with a very, very strong wind behind him. But a
:08:35. > :08:39.whole lot of questions still waiting to be answered. Why do we
:08:40. > :08:45.have to wait until 20th November 13 before we get the answers to a lot
:08:45. > :08:55.of those questions -- 2013. It is a long time to wait, can't the SNP
:08:55. > :09:03.
:09:03. > :09:07.tell us now what they mean by The question that has been post, in
:09:07. > :09:14.its simplicity, wrong-footed many of its critics. Many of their
:09:14. > :09:18.critics thought it would be all pay, ambiguous, on a devious formulation.
:09:18. > :09:23.It was thought there would be another question on Devo Max
:09:23. > :09:28.proposed from the outset, so that Alex Salmond could win at both ends.
:09:28. > :09:32.By playing it straight, they commanded the news agenda for at
:09:32. > :09:38.least the first 24 hours, and that his bed difficult to argue with the
:09:38. > :09:42.question that has been proposed. Do you agree that Scotland should be
:09:42. > :09:46.an independent country? People are criticising it. Lord Forsyth has
:09:46. > :09:52.said that it is a red and Alastair Darling has also said it is right
:09:52. > :09:56.and will be unacceptable to the Electoral Commission. The criticism
:09:56. > :10:01.up here has been very muted and it will be difficult to pick that a
:10:01. > :10:08.part. If we're going to have a debate over the next few years
:10:08. > :10:11.about this, if we do not know precisely what the SNP mean by E
:10:11. > :10:19.independence until the SNP Publishing 24 exactly what they
:10:19. > :10:23.mean, -- 2014, what is the point of a debate between now and then?
:10:23. > :10:28.First of all, the Scotland Bill going through Westminster has to
:10:28. > :10:36.get on to the statutes. This proposes some quite substantial
:10:36. > :10:41.powers for the Scottish Parliament. This was the original reason they
:10:41. > :10:49.propose a referendum in the second half of the parliament. The
:10:49. > :10:53.consultation goes on until 20th November 13, then the period that
:10:53. > :10:57.the gold report proposed. The timetable was fairly clear and
:10:57. > :11:02.fairly reasonable. I cannot see anyone particularly objecting to
:11:02. > :11:06.that. The very question of what the SNP mean by independence, that is
:11:06. > :11:11.what has to be discussed and debated fully and the run-up to the
:11:11. > :11:16.election. If they had rushed ahead, and somewhere saying it is time to
:11:16. > :11:20.go ahead and have a referendum on independence is shortly after
:11:20. > :11:24.winning the overwhelming landslide majority in May. Had they gone for
:11:24. > :11:34.an early election, they would have been accused of bouncing Scotland
:11:34. > :11:40.and the decision. For this reason, they have not debated exactly what
:11:40. > :11:49.independent means. The other big argument is Devo Max. There was
:11:49. > :11:52.less detail than the SNP have even provided in the past. Why was that?
:11:52. > :11:56.It is there as apparently the most popular choice north and south of
:11:56. > :12:00.the border, but people know very little about it and its
:12:00. > :12:06.implications. The more you look at Devo Max, the more you realise that
:12:06. > :12:11.if it is on the ballot paper and people vote for it, we are voting
:12:11. > :12:15.for a federal, at best United Kingdom. It is a unilateral
:12:15. > :12:20.declaration of federalism, is it not? For it would have a greater
:12:20. > :12:24.impact south of the border as well as north. There would have to be a
:12:24. > :12:29.complete rewriting of the British constitution. No one has begun to
:12:29. > :12:36.think through the implications. is one of the implications not that
:12:36. > :12:40.this to be a proposal the Liberal Democrats would be in favour of?
:12:40. > :12:44.think you need to separate two issues. The Liberal Democrats have
:12:44. > :12:48.got their commission going on just now. They are a federalist party,
:12:48. > :12:53.as you point out. Many in the Labour Party say they are open to
:12:53. > :12:57.the idea of more powers. The question is, why are you not
:12:57. > :13:02.embracing this? The problem they have with this is that if they
:13:02. > :13:08.start campaigning for Devo Max today, they will have real
:13:08. > :13:13.difficulty trying to explain it. As a Unionist Party, trying to explain
:13:13. > :13:16.how this will run in the rest of the UK and all of the difficult
:13:16. > :13:21.decisions that need to be made alongside it. They are nowhere near
:13:21. > :13:25.being able to do that in time for a referendum. When people asked in
:13:25. > :13:30.opinion polls, what is your preferred option, they always they
:13:30. > :13:40.that they want more powers for the Scottish Parliament. What if they
:13:40. > :13:43.had called the Kalman Commission not that but instead, Devo Max.
:13:44. > :13:51.What do people mean when they say pollsters in the street that they
:13:51. > :13:55.want Devo Max or more powers? not quite his Vegas all that. The
:13:55. > :13:59.Liberal Democrats always proposed a federal reshaping of the United
:13:59. > :14:04.Kingdom constitution, and Magnus is right, it would have implications
:14:04. > :14:07.for England. England is increasingly in the mood for change
:14:07. > :14:13.in the relationships between the component parts of the United
:14:13. > :14:17.Kingdom. Federalism does have a long and dignified history and it
:14:17. > :14:22.is in operation in many parts of the world. Many would say that
:14:22. > :14:28.federalism is actually a more plausible or comprehensive, or more
:14:28. > :14:31.easily understood, formulation than the SNP's proposal of independence.
:14:31. > :14:38.There saying that for all services excluding defence and foreign
:14:38. > :14:45.affairs, these to be carried out in Scotland. I disagree completely. I
:14:45. > :14:47.do not think it is true to say that federalism is easier to understand.
:14:47. > :14:52.Independence is very easy to understand. Most people know
:14:52. > :14:58.roughly what it means. Federalism is something that we in this
:14:58. > :15:04.country are completely unfamiliar with. It has to be canvassed in
:15:04. > :15:08.England as well as Scotland. I want to move a little bit to the
:15:08. > :15:12.campaign, putting Devo Max aside, the Yes or No campaign. Who will
:15:13. > :15:21.fund those campaigns? We know who will fund the yes campaign but who
:15:21. > :15:24.will fund the no campaign? We hear that there are organisations ready
:15:25. > :15:29.and taking shape who will appear, but we do not know who will head
:15:29. > :15:37.them. Alastair Darling has been mentioned as one. He seems
:15:38. > :15:43.reluctant, doesn't he? The question is not just who will represent the
:15:43. > :15:48.pro UK argument, but what is the pro UK argument? What form of union
:15:49. > :15:53.are we talking about? Are we talking about the Carmen commission
:15:53. > :15:59.or Devo Max. We have to understand that the union is changing
:15:59. > :16:03.significantly. Is there, do you think, anything going on behind the
:16:03. > :16:09.scenes, for example, between the coalition and the Labour Party? It
:16:09. > :16:14.does not strike me that there is. think there are very informal talk
:16:14. > :16:18.particularly around Westminster in the tea rooms, those who are
:16:18. > :16:22.interested in Scotland and have time on their hands. Those kinds of
:16:22. > :16:28.informal chats that go on. There are people at Westminster who
:16:28. > :16:33.realised that this is a debate that they cannot be seen to read in.
:16:33. > :16:37.David Cameron has ruled himself out as well as Nick Clegg. He says that
:16:37. > :16:41.anything he heads up will only do well for his opponent's! Alastair
:16:41. > :16:45.Darling realises he is a Westminster politician. I am not
:16:45. > :16:49.sure they will be a figure who comes and rises to the rescue of
:16:49. > :16:53.the no campaigners and says I am the person to take on Alex Salmond.
:16:53. > :16:58.It will be a broad selection of people from across the parties,
:16:58. > :17:04.both from Westminster and from Scotland. How will that way, at Ian
:17:04. > :17:08.Macwhirter? A I think that will play badly. It would be a
:17:08. > :17:15.collegiate campaign with no particular leader for the no
:17:15. > :17:20.campaign. Given the various elements in their no camp are
:17:20. > :17:23.saying different things, that could lead to confusion. We have
:17:23. > :17:30.established that the Liberal Democrats support federalism and
:17:30. > :17:34.they do support federalism and Scotland. They are not saying that
:17:34. > :17:39.loudly at the bomb it. Labour say they want at stronger form of
:17:39. > :17:43.evolution and that the other extreme, you have Lord Forsyth, who
:17:43. > :17:48.says that this referendum is illegitimate, it is illegal, it
:17:48. > :17:52.should not be allowed to take place. He is urging people to take the
:17:52. > :17:57.matter to the Supreme Court. There is a recipe there for utter
:17:57. > :18:02.confusion. If you do not have a central focus for the campaign,
:18:02. > :18:08.that campaign runs into danger. Thank you all very much for coming
:18:08. > :18:18.in. A long trek to go now. Now a quick look at tomorrow's front
:18:18. > :18:18.
:18:18. > :18:23.pages. The Scotsman says pollsters, academics and others are divided
:18:23. > :18:27.over the fairness. The Herald looks at police workers being axed next
:18:28. > :18:34.year. A picture of the Chief Executive of the Royal Bank of