:00:02. > :00:12.wave of violence. Conspiracy theorists would say that is exactly
:00:12. > :00:15.
:00:15. > :00:19.Tonight a Newsnight Scotland: But toxic two on tour. The prospect of
:00:19. > :00:22.Lord Forsyth and Lord Foulkes planning to join forces for a
:00:22. > :00:26.Unionist roadshow has delighted nationalists. We will hear from one
:00:26. > :00:30.of the noble Lord's about this outbreak of consensus. And after
:00:30. > :00:35.several weeks of referendum wrangling, who is in the lead? We
:00:35. > :00:40.will assess the latest polls. Could this be the Unionist dream
:00:40. > :00:47.team? It emerged during the Scotland Bill debate that two
:00:47. > :00:52.former ministers, are considering joining forces to convince Scots of
:00:52. > :00:57.the benefits of the Union. How many people are to be convinced by a
:00:57. > :01:01.self confessed toxic two remains to be seen.
:01:01. > :01:05.Time seems to move a little bit more slowly in the Lords. But that
:01:05. > :01:11.doesn't necessarily mean that nothing ever changes. The Scotland
:01:11. > :01:17.Bill, after clause 14, Lord Foulkes. For a moment, it looked like a new
:01:17. > :01:20.political force was emerging, uniting Lord Foulkes with the
:01:20. > :01:26.Conservative Lord Michael Forsyth, the former Scottish secretary.
:01:26. > :01:33.Would the toxic two hit the road? Maybe yes, maybe no. I think he and
:01:33. > :01:39.I need to be careful. I think we will be appearing in the blogs as
:01:39. > :01:42.an example of an unholy alliance. I suggested that we should form a
:01:42. > :01:46.road show, and go around Scotland extolling the virtues of the Union.
:01:46. > :01:48.The pair Rossouw in June that they both tabled similar amendments on
:01:48. > :01:56.the Scotland Bill over the impact of tuition fees on students from
:01:56. > :02:02.the rest of the UK. -- the pair are so in tune. Quite separately,
:02:02. > :02:07.without any collusion. The reason I am saying this is because this off-
:02:07. > :02:12.the-cuff comment following our recent discussions about the
:02:12. > :02:16.roadshow, the toxic two, it has been picked up north of the border
:02:16. > :02:21.and is already causing some interest. It was all getting a bit
:02:21. > :02:25.heady. So Lord Forsyth 40 had to put a bit of a brake on. Just to
:02:25. > :02:30.make sure that people realise that the noble Lord and I only agree on
:02:30. > :02:34.some things, I might respectfully remind him that it was the Labour
:02:34. > :02:37.government that introduced tuition fees. Meanwhile, it emerged that
:02:37. > :02:42.Lord Foulkes is branching out on his own, calling for a double
:02:42. > :02:46.referendum to determine Scotland's constitutional future. He has
:02:46. > :02:50.tabled another amendment, posing two separate votes, the first on
:02:50. > :02:54.independence. If that was defeated, a second of further devolution. It
:02:54. > :03:00.has all been happening in the Lords today.
:03:00. > :03:06.I am joined by Lord Foulkes and the SNP's Linda Fabiani, who chairs the
:03:06. > :03:09.Hollywood Scotland Bill committee. The obvious question is if this
:03:09. > :03:15.toxic two tour goes ahead, are there then used in Scotland which
:03:15. > :03:19.would be big enough to host it? are jumping the gun. It was a
:03:19. > :03:23.suggestion that Michael Forsyth made, as he said, off the cuff. I
:03:23. > :03:27.think a much more important discussion is whether or not we
:03:27. > :03:30.have one or two referendums. That is what I have been dealing with. I
:03:30. > :03:35.have been putting down an amendment because there has been so much
:03:35. > :03:38.debate about whether there should be one or two questions. You have
:03:38. > :03:44.just left the entire nation down! Are you saying you are not going to
:03:44. > :03:49.go around on a bus tour? Nothing has been agreed. I am involved in
:03:49. > :03:53.the campaign, campaigning for the union. I'm glad to have enter a
:03:53. > :03:57.debate with Linda Fabiani. I can't think of anyone nicer to have a
:03:57. > :04:01.debate would. But it's important not to talk about that, an off-the-
:04:01. > :04:06.cuff remark by Michael Forsyth. I think it's better to talk about the
:04:06. > :04:11.substance. What I understood when I was invited by your producer to
:04:11. > :04:16.come on was to talk about whether or not we have one referendum with
:04:16. > :04:20.two questions or, as I am suggesting, two referendums. It is
:04:20. > :04:24.far more logical to make a decision first about whether or not Scotland
:04:24. > :04:29.is going to remain part of the United Kingdom. Only once that
:04:29. > :04:33.decision is made can you follow it up. If we are in favour of
:04:33. > :04:36.independence, there was no need for a further referendum. If
:04:36. > :04:40.independence is rejected, we move on and decide what kind of
:04:40. > :04:45.devolution we have. That can only be decided once we have made a
:04:45. > :04:50.decision about independence or not. Right, what is wrong with that idea,
:04:50. > :04:54.and Linda Fabiani? Isn't that fairly sensible? We have another
:04:54. > :05:04.Labour and Tory coalition up ahead, I see. Maybe not, he doesn't want
:05:04. > :05:05.
:05:05. > :05:14.Of it was your SNP government for the last four years that was held
:05:14. > :05:19.at, proper up by Annabel Goldie. -- propped up. Give Linda a chance to
:05:19. > :05:24.have a say. What I was going to say is that we have a consultation out
:05:24. > :05:27.so that everybody in Scotland can respond to that consultation about
:05:27. > :05:32.how the referendum should be run. I think there should be respectful
:05:32. > :05:36.that. I think people are engaged with it. If George wants to respond
:05:36. > :05:40.to that, he should. I don't think it is it appropriate for folks
:05:40. > :05:44.sitting in an unelected table -- chamber to try to tell Scotland how
:05:44. > :05:48.we go ahead with a referendum. Don't be so coy, are you telling us
:05:48. > :05:52.that you don't have any views on his proposal for a second
:05:52. > :05:55.referendum because you are having a consultation? Well, it will be
:05:55. > :05:59.considered along with lots of different views. I'm more
:06:00. > :06:02.interested in the views of people of Scotland. We have
:06:02. > :06:09.representatives of Civic Scotland Committee gather, to talk about the
:06:09. > :06:12.potential of a second question. There is a lot to beat -- be
:06:12. > :06:18.discussed. I think that is absolutely fair. The Westminster
:06:18. > :06:22.government has a consultation out as well. I'm going to resist asking
:06:22. > :06:26.you whether you have already made the T-shirts for the tour and ask
:06:26. > :06:32.you a question you cannot complain is not substantial. Isn't there an
:06:32. > :06:37.issue about the question about devo-max, whatever you want to call
:06:37. > :06:40.it, that in the case of independence it is Scottish people
:06:40. > :06:46.having a vote, self-determination, whatever they decide they go and do.
:06:46. > :06:50.If they are voting on devolution plus, that affect the rest of the
:06:50. > :06:54.United Kingdom. In the 1990s, the British government agreed what
:06:54. > :06:58.devolution would be, everybody agreed and they put it to the
:06:59. > :07:02.people of Scotland. I don't see how the idea of a second referendum
:07:02. > :07:07.gets around that, that it is not really up to the people of Scotland
:07:07. > :07:13.is sake they want this bit or that bit? I think that is a valid point.
:07:13. > :07:16.Can I say to Linda that I will be submitting views to the Scottish
:07:16. > :07:20.government and the Westminster government. Meanwhile, the House of
:07:20. > :07:24.Lords is part of our constitution until we are reformed or abolished.
:07:24. > :07:28.It is legitimate to debate this. I can understand your question.
:07:28. > :07:34.Scotland needs to make a decision, first of all, about whether or not
:07:34. > :07:38.we want to remain part of the United Kingdom. If we do, then we
:07:38. > :07:44.move on to considering what kind of devolution, what level of
:07:44. > :07:47.devolution we should have. Sub of gruel all suggesting, as you have,
:07:47. > :07:51.-- some people are suggesting, as you have, that it is a matter for
:07:51. > :07:56.the United Kingdom. I think the evidence shows it is a matter for
:07:56. > :08:00.Scotland, principally. Not everybody in the Labour Party has
:08:00. > :08:07.signed up to this and we can all discuss it. Other people will want
:08:07. > :08:10.the status quo. Some people might want Calman or Calman plus. But you
:08:10. > :08:15.cannot take the two decisions together. You can't make a decision
:08:15. > :08:20.about the level of devolution until we decide whether or not we want to
:08:20. > :08:25.be part of the United Kingdom. Linda Fabiani, the point I am
:08:25. > :08:29.getting at, and it has implications for the SNP as well, you still seem
:08:29. > :08:33.to harbour reservations about having a second question on the one
:08:33. > :08:37.referendum paper. But devo-max or whatever you are going to call it
:08:37. > :08:41.has to be more than an idea. If you say to people, do we want more tax-
:08:41. > :08:45.raising powers in Scotland, a lot of people would say yes. Do you
:08:45. > :08:49.want the welfare system in Britain to be broken up and the stabilising
:08:49. > :08:54.effect it has on the economy, a lot of people might say they are not
:08:54. > :08:58.sure. You have to specify precisely what you're asking. What you're
:08:58. > :09:03.asking on independence is absolutely clear. What you are
:09:03. > :09:07.proposing to ask people on devo-max is unclear. Our policy is very
:09:07. > :09:11.clear, we believe in independence. So you did not want a second
:09:11. > :09:16.question any more? We have never said we want a second question. It
:09:16. > :09:19.has been quite clear. We would like a single question on independence.
:09:19. > :09:25.But we have to show respect to those in Scotland who have said
:09:25. > :09:29.they would like that option. I am really glad that Lord Foulkes has
:09:29. > :09:32.said that about autonomy. That is something that the Scotland Bill
:09:32. > :09:38.committee took forward in the report to the UK government. We
:09:38. > :09:42.have not had it in response, saying that we have not had a response on
:09:42. > :09:49.what we agreed cross-party. If that is what Lord Foulkes says should go
:09:49. > :09:52.forward, have a look at the committee report. We are still
:09:52. > :09:56.waiting for the committee's report to be considered by the Scottish
:09:56. > :10:00.parliament. It has not been considered yet. Can I say, if you
:10:00. > :10:06.have the vote, the referendum, and two questions on the same ballot
:10:06. > :10:12.paper, the same day, supposing independence gets 50% and devo-max,
:10:12. > :10:16.the other option, get 70%, which trumps the other? Which wins?
:10:16. > :10:21.Nobody has come up with a solution to that conundrum. That is why I am
:10:21. > :10:27.saying that these should be separate. Baisha beat 35 days apart,
:10:27. > :10:30.six months the craft, whatever we think is appropriate. Whatever the
:10:30. > :10:34.amendment, it is to enable that to be discussed. I hope that not just
:10:34. > :10:37.in the House of Lords, not just on Newsnight Scotland, but throughout
:10:38. > :10:47.the whole of Scotland, these options will be properly discussed.
:10:48. > :10:53.
:10:53. > :11:01.We will discuss the rest of the news in a moment. Derek Bateman has
:11:01. > :11:11.been looking at the political landscape.
:11:11. > :11:12.
:11:12. > :11:19.It was a week for cutting down to size. Fred Goodwin lost his knight
:11:19. > :11:24.would -- like wood. There were problems with people who do not cut
:11:25. > :11:33.their hedges. For Fred Goodwin, it was off with his head. It neatly
:11:33. > :11:38.diverted attention from others in the banking scandal. To some, the
:11:38. > :11:43.bankers should be jailed and going suddenly, someone else to think the
:11:43. > :11:52.bankers should be jailed came out of prison this week. This fight is
:11:52. > :11:58.far from over and this story has not yet finished. Tommy Sheridan's
:11:58. > :12:08.campaign for his reputation and independents. The good news for Mr
:12:08. > :12:12.Salmon is a single question - yes or no? There was uncertainty
:12:12. > :12:20.whether there would be a campaign for a second question. They might
:12:20. > :12:27.need to put it to a referendum. Into the mix Ken the first of two
:12:27. > :12:37.ets. Tax the bankers bonuses and give or Mary employees extra pay.
:12:37. > :12:38.
:12:38. > :12:45.They are second a right three days later when Ed Balls displayed Alex
:12:45. > :12:54.Salmond's capacity for food-related photo opportunities. John Swinney
:12:54. > :13:04.is tonight entertaining members of the David Hume society. The very
:13:04. > :13:04.
:13:04. > :13:11.thought will have people squirming in their seats. The Lords are
:13:11. > :13:16.leaping over the constitution with Lord Foulkes demanding a second
:13:16. > :13:22.question and a second referendum. As Hume at might have said, only
:13:22. > :13:28.the unelected would think that would please the senses. There was
:13:28. > :13:32.no escaping the spectre of Mr Fred. Yesterday, the First Minister said
:13:32. > :13:37.he would have done things did they leave. Is he prepared to apologise
:13:37. > :13:44.to be people up Scotland for a serious error of judgment? I do not
:13:44. > :13:49.think Fred Goodwin is the strength of the Labour Party. It was my
:13:49. > :13:53.predecessor who recommended him for an night would and it was Gordon-
:13:53. > :14:01.Brown as Prime Minister who appointed him as one of his
:14:01. > :14:07.economic advisers. And as the political retreat to a close, a
:14:07. > :14:17.poll confirmed the SNP leader, that shocked scientists who rushed to
:14:17. > :14:21.put the findings under the microscope. And Eric was - Alex
:14:21. > :14:26.Salmond's popularity has fallen by 13 %.
:14:26. > :14:30.I am joined now by Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University.
:14:30. > :14:35.We have had quite a few polls on independence over the last few
:14:35. > :14:40.weeks. Everyone is trying to claim the trend is in their direction.
:14:41. > :14:47.What is the truth? The truth is there is no discernible trend. We
:14:47. > :14:50.have had to set of polls. One was in immediate wake of the UK
:14:50. > :15:00.government's intervention into the referendum last month. 10 days
:15:00. > :15:02.
:15:02. > :15:08.after that we had a whole swathe of polls. One of them showed a small
:15:08. > :15:15.increase for independence. If you do look at the average though,
:15:15. > :15:22.there is no evidence, despite the SNP's expectations that Mr
:15:22. > :15:32.Cameron's intervention had any impact. Nothing really has changed.
:15:32. > :15:33.
:15:33. > :15:41.The second set palls of people beginning to examine what the
:15:41. > :15:51.response is to Mr Salmond's question. A number of people might
:15:51. > :15:52.
:15:52. > :15:56.be arguing that it is biased in the SNP's favour. It looks as though
:15:56. > :16:06.when people are asked that question, at the level of support for
:16:06. > :16:12.independence is about 4% higher. It wasn't the question on the ballot
:16:12. > :16:18.paper, so perhaps Mr Salmond's? Give him an advantage. Now today we
:16:18. > :16:24.have seen Lord Ashcroft published a poll in which he has asked three
:16:24. > :16:31.separate questions, basically three different samples by the same
:16:31. > :16:35.pollster. One of which is the SNP's proposed question which gets 41 %
:16:35. > :16:42.support for independence. A second question which keeps the bones of
:16:42. > :16:51.the SNP question but also says do you agree or disagree that Scotland
:16:51. > :17:01.should be an independent country? It polled at 39 %. There's a third
:17:01. > :17:03.
:17:03. > :17:07.question which is the kind of question that some say should be
:17:07. > :17:14.asked - should Scotland say the same or leave the United Kingdom?
:17:14. > :17:24.That polled at 33 %. There is evidence that Mr Salmond's question
:17:24. > :17:25.
:17:25. > :17:35.looks like the one that people are more likely to respond to. A lot of
:17:35. > :17:35.
:17:35. > :17:45.people are saying, paid for by Lord Ashdown. There was a serious survey
:17:45. > :17:47.
:17:47. > :17:51.there. Lord Ashcroft. You yes, Surrey. -- yes. The evidence that
:17:51. > :17:55.is published is there for everyone to see. So they might be a
:17:55. > :18:01.difference depending on the question, but it is an important.
:18:01. > :18:11.Macro you made, although we are debating it, many people aren't
:18:11. > :18:12.
:18:12. > :18:22.paying much attention. As a pollster, I would never ask Mr
:18:22. > :18:23.
:18:23. > :18:26.Salmond's question as worded on a poll. Given we are going to have a
:18:26. > :18:30.referendum campaign that will go one for nearly three years, at
:18:30. > :18:39.their end of that, the detailed wording of the question will not
:18:39. > :18:48.make anything like the same difference in terms of the way
:18:48. > :18:51.people will be polled. That said, there is evidence building up that
:18:51. > :19:01.maybe this is the type of question Mr Salmond would like to have on
:19:01. > :19:01.
:19:01. > :19:05.the ballot paper. Their SNP, in polling about who you think should
:19:05. > :19:11.run the Scottish government seems to be doing well, but that does not
:19:11. > :19:20.seem to have any effect on polling on independence. We should Bobby
:19:20. > :19:27.surprise. Last year, the growing momentum in support for the SNP
:19:27. > :19:37.showed there was no change in terms of the question of independence.
:19:37. > :19:55.
:19:55. > :20:05.Thank you. A quick look at That is all we have time for.
:20:05. > :20:11.
:20:11. > :20:16.Another cold and frosty start tomorrow morning. Some snow showers
:20:16. > :20:21.across the East. For the vast majority vote it will be a sunny,
:20:21. > :20:29.but bitterly cold winter's day. Fine conditions across northern
:20:29. > :20:39.England. Temperatures were just about creep above freezing. For
:20:39. > :20:42.
:20:42. > :20:52.most of the day it will be sunny. In the south-west it may feel a
:20:52. > :20:56.
:20:56. > :21:02.little less cold. Fine for Wales and most of Northern Ireland.
:21:02. > :21:07.Scotland will be dry and fine and sunny, but cold. There will be some
:21:07. > :21:14.wet weather coming in on Saturday. As it arrives, it could bring a
:21:14. > :21:19.little bit of snow. Some uncertainty about where the snow
:21:19. > :21:24.will fall and how much there will be, but as the wet weather bumps