:00:16. > :00:19.unemployment or on borrowing. Good evening. You've heard the view
:00:19. > :00:25.from Westminster. In a moment we'll hear from the UK and Scottish
:00:25. > :00:29.governments. First let's find out what our economics editor makes of
:00:29. > :00:33.the Budget. Douglas? Tomorrow's headlines are going to be about tax,
:00:33. > :00:38.just as this morning's were. But who wins and who loses? The winners,
:00:38. > :00:41.all of us to a limited extent, a lot of us to a limited extent. The
:00:41. > :00:46.losers I think grannies will be the tabloid shorthand for that. What
:00:46. > :00:50.about the high earners? That's open to dispute. One test is how much
:00:50. > :00:55.people complain. We're not hearing a great deal of complaint from high
:00:55. > :01:00.earners about this just yet. It's worth mentioning what's not playing
:01:00. > :01:03.a vital role in the debate. Yes, there's targeted help for business
:01:03. > :01:06.and specific sectors. There's little talk about confidence. What
:01:06. > :01:10.the office of budget responsibility is saying, they expect business
:01:10. > :01:14.investment to remain very, very flat. Also very little talk about
:01:14. > :01:21.spending. That's the big story about public finance over this next
:01:21. > :01:25.five years or. So many of the cuts yet to bite. We did get mentioned
:01:25. > :01:28.briefly about �10 billion more out of welfare. We don't know where.
:01:28. > :01:33.But that's almost certain to hurt. That's the kind of place we're not
:01:33. > :01:37.seeing a great deal of detail just yet. We'll be back with you in a
:01:37. > :01:39.minute. First we told David Allison to get on his bike and look for
:01:39. > :01:43.growth. A year ago George Osborne announced
:01:43. > :01:49.that he wanted to make Britain a land of manufacturing once again, a
:01:49. > :01:53.place that he dubbed the march the makers. 12 months on he's back, in
:01:53. > :01:57.a period of very low growth still. He says he still wants to see
:01:57. > :02:02.Britain get on its collective bike. Thfrpblgts Budget rewards work.
:02:02. > :02:09.Britain is going to earn its way in the world. There is no other road
:02:09. > :02:13.to recovery. Mr Osborne aims to incentivise both ends of the income
:02:13. > :02:19.scale. For ordinary mortals the amount you can earn before paying
:02:19. > :02:24.tax goes up to �9,205. Child benefit will be available for those
:02:24. > :02:30.earning up to �60,000. The top rate of tax will be cut to 45p.
:02:30. > :02:34.According to the Chancellor, to raise more tax. No Chancellor can
:02:34. > :02:42.justify a tax rate that damages our economy and raises next to nothing.
:02:42. > :02:46.It is as simple as that. And thanks to the other new taxes on the rich,
:02:46. > :02:51.I've announced today we'll be getting five times more money each
:02:51. > :02:54.and every year from the wealthiest in our society. But what about
:02:54. > :02:59.Scotland? What was there in the Chancellor's statement for us? Well
:02:59. > :03:04.there was some help for the life sciences and games industries. But
:03:04. > :03:08.a rather sceptical financial eye on renewables. He also said Civil
:03:08. > :03:14.Service pay would be agreed locally and suggested that principle might
:03:14. > :03:18.extend inifyure to benefits. Specific proposal for Scotland
:03:18. > :03:23.include tax relief to help with the cost of decommissioning North Sea
:03:23. > :03:27.oil and gas facilities, a new field allowance for exploration to the
:03:27. > :03:34.west of Shetland, as well as superfast Broadband for Edinburgh.
:03:34. > :03:37.And special enterprise area status for Nigg, Dundee and irvin.
:03:37. > :03:41.Chief Secetary can confirm today we will offer enhanced capital
:03:41. > :03:48.aloupblss for businesses starting in the new Scottish enterprise
:03:48. > :03:51.areas. Budget speeches are rarely welcome by the Opposition not least
:03:51. > :03:54.because they're one of the toughest jobs for the leader of the
:03:54. > :03:58.Opposition who has to reply. Ed Miliband insisted the Chancellor
:03:58. > :04:03.had failed. Growth down last year. Growth down this year. Growth down
:04:03. > :04:08.next year. Every time he comes to the House he offers a different
:04:08. > :04:14.excuse, but the reality is his plan has failed.
:04:14. > :04:20.Last year Mr Deputy Speaker, he told us unemployment would peak in
:04:20. > :04:26.2011. And what has he delivered? We're into 2012 and unemployment is
:04:26. > :04:30.rising month upon month upon month. His plan has failed. Let's have
:04:30. > :04:40.transparency. Hands up in the Cabinet if you're going to benefit
:04:40. > :04:41.
:04:41. > :04:46.from the income tax cut? Come on. Come on. Come on. What of the SNP?
:04:46. > :04:49.They're been making mup of their �300 million worth of shovel ready
:04:49. > :04:53.construction projects ready to go if they just had the cash. There
:04:53. > :04:57.was no announcement on that. There were things on Broadband
:04:58. > :05:03.communications in Edinburgh and the special enterprise zones at Nigg,
:05:04. > :05:12.Dundee and Irvin. The Chancellor talked about backing the media
:05:12. > :05:17.sector. That could be helpful for the games industry in Dundee. We
:05:17. > :05:21.will look at the fine print to find out what it does. Here the Scottish
:05:21. > :05:24.government announced a climb down ot time table for introducing
:05:24. > :05:31.Curriculum for Excellence exams. A good day to bury bad news? Where
:05:31. > :05:35.did we hear that one before? Douglas is still with me. Now this
:05:35. > :05:38.stuff about oil and gas in this? you're looking at it from a
:05:38. > :05:43.Scottish point of view, energy is interesting. For the UK the
:05:43. > :05:47.Chancellor is talking about another dash for gas to deal with the gap
:05:47. > :05:52.for electricity generation. He sounds not for the first time,
:05:52. > :05:56.quite sceptical about the green agenda, which is perhaps surprising
:05:56. > :06:01.for a Government who wanted to be the greenest ever. You did hear in
:06:01. > :06:06.terms of energy investment tax breaks for Nigg and Dundee where a
:06:06. > :06:12.lot of jobs are hoped for in terms of oil and gs and renewable energy
:06:12. > :06:19.as well. After last year's big tax raid on offshore oil and gas, we
:06:19. > :06:23.are getting today tax breaks, at least modest tax breaks. They're
:06:23. > :06:29.targeted as exploration and at the cost of decommissioning North Sea
:06:29. > :06:34.equipment. A big consequence of this change is that the tax take,
:06:34. > :06:38.the revenue from off-shore oil and gas, reduces sharply over the next
:06:38. > :06:43.few years, according to the figures published today. This has been
:06:43. > :06:47.spotted by eeconomists at Glasgow university. We have a whizzo graph.
:06:47. > :06:52.A very fine graph. This was last year what they were projecting.
:06:52. > :06:56.Over the next few years the revenue from off shore oil and gas. It
:06:56. > :07:01.comes over the next three years to a healthy �11 billion at the end of
:07:01. > :07:06.that. If you look at what's happened a year on, three things
:07:06. > :07:10.happen, one is oil price stays quite high. Also you get the tax
:07:10. > :07:14.effect, that there's more money that the Treasury's give ago way or
:07:14. > :07:19.not taking in from the industry and you have falling production. It's
:07:19. > :07:23.lower than half that level, if you look over the next four years. That
:07:23. > :07:27.has considerable significance for the political debate around
:07:27. > :07:30.independence. Of course these numbers matter very much to
:07:30. > :07:33.figuring out whether Scotland is better off or not. One of the
:07:33. > :07:40.reasons you get the fall is for something that the Scottish
:07:40. > :07:44.Government was very keen on, which was these incentives to invest more,
:07:44. > :07:48.particularly off Shetland. Because the companies get 100% write-offs
:07:48. > :07:51.against tax on the first year of investments. Yes, the companies
:07:51. > :07:55.have been in negotiation with the Treasury all year to repair this
:07:55. > :07:58.damage. West of Shetland is a difficult place. It's very deep
:07:58. > :08:03.water. These are targeted tax breaks which have been announced
:08:03. > :08:10.today. They are supported by the SNP government. They've wanted to
:08:10. > :08:14.get more investment in Scottish waters. The implications for the
:08:14. > :08:18.independence debate are that these figures make it more difficult to
:08:18. > :08:21.show Scotland would be at least manageable deficit territory over
:08:21. > :08:26.the next four, five years if ref enough falls away that fast. Thank
:08:26. > :08:30.you very much. Now the Scottish office minister
:08:30. > :08:35.David Mundell is in our Westminster studios. First of all, can you
:08:35. > :08:40.explain why it should be important to people in Scotland that the 50p
:08:40. > :08:44.tax rate is cut? I think it's very important in Scotland and across
:08:44. > :08:49.the United Kingdom that we do encourage wealthy people to stay in
:08:49. > :08:55.our country. These people generally have a choice as to where they live.
:08:55. > :09:02.If our tax rate isn't competitive, they'll go elsewhere. A lot of
:09:02. > :09:08.statistics have shown these are people... If they were evading tax?
:09:08. > :09:12.According to your own documents, evaiding tax. What our document's
:09:12. > :09:16.shown is that the tax at 50p wasn't effective. We want to bring forward
:09:16. > :09:21.a rate for higher earners that will be effective, along with a range of
:09:21. > :09:25.other tax Medsures which will ensure that those people who are
:09:25. > :09:30.wealthy will pay their fair share. It's an extraordinary argument that
:09:30. > :09:35.because people who are very rich found ways of paying accountants to
:09:35. > :09:41.evade paying the 50p tax rate, they should get a tax cut. If we all
:09:41. > :09:45.start not paying income tax, can we all get a tax cut? It doesn't work
:09:45. > :09:50.that way. I'm sorry that's exactly the logic of George Osborne's
:09:50. > :09:56.argument. It doesn't. What you have to have is a tax system that is
:09:56. > :10:01.credible and effective. If people have the opportunity not to pay the
:10:01. > :10:07.taxes, then they'll do that. That's what's been happening. What we want
:10:07. > :10:11.to make sure that we tighten up a lot of the loopholes in terms of
:10:11. > :10:15.use for example of overseas companies to avoid Stamp Duty and
:10:15. > :10:18.capital gains tax. We want a credible tax rate, which is at the
:10:18. > :10:22.midpoint of European and international tax roits to
:10:22. > :10:25.encourage people to be in the United Kingdom. As a matter of
:10:25. > :10:30.interest, how many people in Scotland will benefit from cutting
:10:30. > :10:34.the 50p tax rate? I'm sure there are people in Scotland who will
:10:34. > :10:38.benefit. I'm sure there are too. I'm asking you as a Government
:10:38. > :10:43.minister to tell me how many. want to see more people in
:10:43. > :10:48.Scotland... So you don't know. will be paying the heir rate tax.
:10:48. > :10:53.You don't know, do you? What we do know is if we have the 50p tax rate
:10:53. > :10:56.we are not bringing in the levels of income that were projected for
:10:56. > :11:01.that rate. We're discouraging high earners to be located in Scotland
:11:01. > :11:05.and elsewhere in the UK. You don't know that. The first thing the
:11:05. > :11:09.Treasury press released about Scotland today was that 73,000
:11:09. > :11:14.people would be taken out of income tax because of the change in the
:11:14. > :11:20.tax thresholds. Can you tell me how many pensioners in Scotland will
:11:20. > :11:24.lose out as a result of the change in the tax thresholds for
:11:24. > :11:29.pensioners. I can tell you that every pensioner in Scotland will
:11:29. > :11:34.benefit from the highest increase in pensions in recent times that
:11:34. > :11:39.the Government is bringing forward. And the change that we're making is
:11:39. > :11:42.putting more emphasis on the pension and less emphasis on the
:11:42. > :11:46.tax rate. You don't know how many people are affected by the change
:11:46. > :11:49.in the top tax rate and you don't know how many pensioners are
:11:49. > :11:54.affected. Let me try you with another one. Given that you made so
:11:54. > :11:59.much fuss about searching out the statistic of the 73,000 people who
:11:59. > :12:03.would benefit from the changes in tax thresholds, as you know, at the
:12:03. > :12:07.other end of the scale, some extra people will be brought into higher
:12:07. > :12:11.rate tax as a result of the changes there. How many people in Scotland
:12:11. > :12:16.will be brought into higher rate tax because of the changes made in
:12:16. > :12:21.the Budget today? What the Budget is about, Gordon, is about an
:12:21. > :12:25.overall package which is seeking to achieve fairness, in relation to
:12:25. > :12:34.pensioners, who pay tax, it's seeking to bring a fairness to have
:12:34. > :12:40.a uniform rate of tax, personal allowance. We think that is a fair
:12:40. > :12:45.thing to do. In relation to higher earning taxpayers, we believe that
:12:45. > :12:49.it is right that we have a tax rate which is actually credible and
:12:49. > :12:53.payable. That is what we are about. We're about achieving fairness.
:12:53. > :12:57.you don't know how many people are affected by the 50p tax rate. You
:12:57. > :13:01.don't know how many pensioners are affected by the change in tax
:13:01. > :13:05.thresholds. And you don't know how many people will be brought into
:13:05. > :13:08.higher rate tax as a result of the changes made in the Budget today.
:13:08. > :13:12.As a Government minister, you're sitting there seriously trying to
:13:12. > :13:18.tell me this is a thought out Budget for Scotland? Yes, we are.
:13:18. > :13:23.It is a Budget based on delivering a fair package in relation to the
:13:23. > :13:27.personal tax system. It's a Budget which is based on delivering a
:13:27. > :13:31.package of measures to encourage business in Scotland, such as those
:13:31. > :13:36.in the oil and gas industry, which you've just been speaking about, in
:13:36. > :13:43.terms of cutting corporation tax and in terms of bringing forward
:13:43. > :13:47.yesterday the plans to encourage the loan scheme for new businesses.
:13:47. > :13:51.I think those are all important measures and a package that will
:13:51. > :13:56.benefit people in Scotland. Unfortunately for you this idea
:13:56. > :14:01.that it's a budget for growth is flatly contradicted by your office
:14:01. > :14:05.of budget responsibility. The first sentence of their document today
:14:05. > :14:10.says "our overall assessment of the outlook and risk fofrt UK economy
:14:10. > :14:19.is broadly unchanged from our November economic and fiscal
:14:19. > :14:25.output." I don't accept that will be the case. Hang on, so Government
:14:25. > :14:29.minister now think the OBR forecasts are wrong? No, I think
:14:29. > :14:34.the measures we're bringing forward in reducing corporation tax. The
:14:34. > :14:39.measures bringing forward in terms of easing bank lending for small
:14:39. > :14:46.and medium sized businesses, the measures we're bringing forward to
:14:46. > :14:49.create these development areas in Irvin, Nigg and Dundee will have a
:14:49. > :14:54.significant effect. It's just that the OBR didn't understand that. We
:14:54. > :14:58.have to leave it there. David Mundell thank you. I'm joined by
:14:58. > :15:05.John Swinney, the Scottish Finance Secretary. He's in Dundee. First of
:15:05. > :15:10.all, you welcomed these measures to try to encourage investment in the
:15:10. > :15:14.North Sea, it's more the Atlantic off Shetland. But presumably you're
:15:14. > :15:19.not so happy about the effect that some of this is happening on the
:15:19. > :15:22.projected revenues from North Sea oil, which seem to have fallen
:15:22. > :15:27.dramatically. I certainly welcome the incentives put in place,
:15:27. > :15:31.because I think what they do is begin to repair some of the damage
:15:31. > :15:36.that's been done to the investment climate in the North Sea oil and
:15:36. > :15:41.gas sector as a consequence of the budget last March. The consequence
:15:41. > :15:45.of that is demonstrated in smflt data that's set out in the Treasury
:15:45. > :15:49.documents today where clearly the investment climate has been
:15:49. > :15:52.undermined by the approach the Chancellor took with the impact on
:15:52. > :15:58.production and development of fields that have taken their course.
:15:58. > :16:01.That has to be built up against. That's why the incentives and the
:16:01. > :16:08.decommissioning assistance will make that challenge a great deal
:16:08. > :16:16.more practical. To give one figure, a year ago, the OBR was forecasting
:16:16. > :16:25.oil revenues of �11 billion in 2015/1, which is the first year you
:16:25. > :16:31.could realistically have an independent Scotland. -- 2015/16.
:16:31. > :16:34.They're forecasting �5 in 2016/17, something like a 50% cut. That has
:16:34. > :16:42.severe consequences for your claim that somehow an independent
:16:42. > :16:46.Scotland would be more viable than the UK budget. In recent yearsing -
:16:46. > :16:49.- years, the data set out about the difference in the financial
:16:49. > :16:54.performance of Scotland versus the United Kingdom has reflected the
:16:54. > :16:59.fact that North Sea oil revenues have changed dramatically. In one
:16:59. > :17:03.year there was a 50% reduction in North Sea oil revenue. Scotland
:17:03. > :17:08.still ended up in a stronger financial position than the rest of
:17:08. > :17:15.the United Kingdom. The analysis I've done so far with the
:17:15. > :17:21.implications of decommissioning incentives, the net effect of
:17:21. > :17:27.benefit by 2016/17 will be net growth of �1.1 billion. So you're
:17:27. > :17:30.saying the OBR just has this wrong? There's got to be an effect of some
:17:30. > :17:35.of the measures set out today to encourage and incentivise
:17:35. > :17:40.production in the North Sea. That's also got to be taken against the
:17:40. > :17:44.back drop of the severe knocked confidence that was delivered and
:17:44. > :17:49.investment that was delivered by the Chancellor in his budget last
:17:49. > :17:53.March. That's got to take some time to work back through the system to
:17:53. > :17:57.see revenues recover. My point is that there is a sustained asset we
:17:57. > :18:00.have to develop in a sustained way. That's what the Chancellor hasn't
:18:00. > :18:04.done. He started to repair the damage today, but we need to see
:18:04. > :18:08.more steps to encourage that in years to come. One of the reasons
:18:09. > :18:12.that revenues, the OBR's forecast is going down is precisely because
:18:12. > :18:17.I think you welcome. These companies can write off all the
:18:17. > :18:22.investment they make in the first year against corporation tax and I
:18:22. > :18:27.think petroleum revenue tax as well. What you haven't addressed is the
:18:27. > :18:32.fact that this severely would affect, I mean we're talking about,
:18:32. > :18:36.if you won your independence revenue -- referendum, which will
:18:36. > :18:40.now be looking forward to tax revenues from North Sea oil which
:18:40. > :18:46.are 50% of what you were expecting this morning. The point I'm making
:18:46. > :18:51.is that there has to be stability in the North Sea oil and gas
:18:51. > :18:55.taxation regime, which encourages company to invest in some of the
:18:55. > :18:59.more challenging opportunities that have to be per sued. That has been
:18:59. > :19:02.undermined by what the Chancellor did last year. There has been some
:19:02. > :19:06.recovery in that certainly and confidence by the actions that have
:19:06. > :19:11.been taken today. That needs to be intensified in the years to come to
:19:11. > :19:14.make sure that we can deliver a strong and sustainable return from
:19:14. > :19:20.the North Sea oil and gas investment that companies make.
:19:21. > :19:25.but I come back to this, doesn't it underline the idea that relying so
:19:25. > :19:31.heavily on a very volatile price of a natural resource is not a very
:19:31. > :19:37.sensible way to run a country. If you could have a 50% fall in the
:19:37. > :19:40.forecast of North Sea oil revenues, based actually not really on
:19:40. > :19:46.different projections of oil prices, but simply on a few tax changes, I
:19:46. > :19:51.mean that is not very encouraging, is it? The point I've made to you
:19:51. > :19:55.is that in recent financial years there has been a 50% reduction in
:19:55. > :19:57.the tax take of North Sea oil. Scotland has still ended up in a
:19:57. > :20:00.stronger financial position than the rest of the United Kingdom. The
:20:00. > :20:06.point that people in Scotland have got to consider is whether they
:20:06. > :20:10.want to see the remainder of the North Sea oil and gas reserves and
:20:10. > :20:13.resources squandered by a United Kingdom gfrt that cannot manage
:20:13. > :20:17.them effectively for the long-term interests of our people. John
:20:17. > :20:21.Swinney thank you very much. Now I'm joined from Westminster by
:20:21. > :20:25.the Liberal Democrat John Thurso who sits on the Treasury Select
:20:25. > :20:30.Committee and Cathy Jamieson, a member of Labour's Treasury team.
:20:30. > :20:37.First of all, John Thurso, we have just heard David Mundell enthusing
:20:37. > :20:42.about the cut in the 50p tax rate, I guess that's not what you would
:20:42. > :20:47.argue for. No. What I'm really concerned about is the �3.5 billion
:20:47. > :20:52.that we are putting directly back into the pockets of working people
:20:52. > :20:57.by the increase in the personal tax allowance. That's many, many people,
:20:58. > :21:02.millions throughout the UK, 160,000 in Scotland, who will benefit from
:21:02. > :21:10.cash in their pocket. That was important to me. For those who get
:21:10. > :21:13.confused by the technology of the coalition. Danny Alexander was
:21:13. > :21:18.enthusing about the cut to the 50p tax rate. He's presumably not
:21:18. > :21:21.really a Liberal Democrat now or just kind of got it wrong.
:21:21. > :21:27.splendid fellow Treasury Minister. I'm just not terribly worried about
:21:27. > :21:33.it. The cost is �50 million as against �3.5 billion that we're
:21:33. > :21:40.giving to people who really need it. Frankly, �50 million is a small
:21:40. > :21:45.amount of money. I am happy to accept that �45 -- 45p is what the
:21:45. > :21:51.Tories required for that. I see the �3.5 billion going to the millions
:21:51. > :21:55.of working families that need the money as the important game. If you
:21:55. > :22:00.look at the HMRC document which outlines the case, what it shows
:22:00. > :22:05.actually is you lose �3 billion by cutting tax rates and you might
:22:05. > :22:10.gain �2.9 billion if the people who are avoiding the tax or evading it
:22:10. > :22:16.stop evading it, so it's a bit of a �100 million is the difference
:22:16. > :22:20.between the two and it's a guess. One of the points that HMRC
:22:20. > :22:24.document makes clear is that it is some 20 plus years since we had any
:22:24. > :22:30.evidence of behavioural change in the UK. We now have, for the first
:22:30. > :22:34.time, that evidence. It's clear that evidence shows there is
:22:34. > :22:38.behavioural change which means that the estimates originally set down
:22:38. > :22:42.for that tax collect were wildly out. Therefore the amount of money
:22:43. > :22:49.that sk collected and is likely to be collected is much less. I'd
:22:49. > :22:51.rather have 45p collected than a 50p that wasn't. It seems to me a
:22:51. > :22:56.no brainer. Cathy Jamieson, beyond the knock about, it's fair enough
:22:56. > :23:00.to say if a tax isn't collecting anything like the money that
:23:00. > :23:05.Alistair Darling thought it would, get rid of it. Of course we have to
:23:05. > :23:09.remember that this was the first year and you know, if they had been
:23:09. > :23:13.given perhaps more time, over the second and third years perhaps we
:23:13. > :23:18.would have seen perhaps more money coming through. This budget was
:23:18. > :23:22.about choices for the Chancellor. What he's chosen to do is give huge
:23:22. > :23:28.tax cuts to millionaires and people earning over �150,000 a year, at
:23:28. > :23:32.the same time as making the choice to take away around �4,000 from
:23:32. > :23:36.lower paid, parttime... You're making the knock-about point again.
:23:36. > :23:42.If it is the case that this tax was not raising the money it was
:23:42. > :23:47.supposed to raise, then it's not the case that by cutting it, he's
:23:47. > :23:51.giving huge tax cuts to the rich at the expense of the poor. You said
:23:51. > :23:53.yourself that HMRC's figures and some of the work that's been done
:23:53. > :23:57.by the office of budget responsibility show that actually
:23:57. > :24:04.the Government are taking a pretty big gamble on where the money is
:24:04. > :24:08.going to come from. On top of that, we have the raid on the pensioners'
:24:08. > :24:12.incomes, the so-called granny tax, which is perhaps the only thing
:24:12. > :24:21.which was kept secret in the past few weeks, about what was going to
:24:21. > :24:25.happen with the budget. Comment on the, we might as well call it the
:24:25. > :24:29.granny tax The biggest tax on most grannies in the taxable band in
:24:29. > :24:33.Scotland was the collapse of RBS shares. That's what my mother had
:24:33. > :24:38.her money in and many others. What we have... I think you'll find
:24:38. > :24:43.that's not the main source of income for most pensioners. What we
:24:43. > :24:47.have done here today is simply to say with the massive uplift in the
:24:47. > :24:52.tax allowance, it is right that be equalised with what pensioners were
:24:52. > :24:55.getting. So nobody loses a penny in cash terms. 50% of pensioners
:24:56. > :25:00.aren't in the tax bracket any way. And it will be equalised over a
:25:00. > :25:04.couple of years. That's pretty fair. It's not a granny tax. Thank you
:25:04. > :25:09.both very much. With me now is the Economist Jo
:25:09. > :25:16.Armstrong from the Centre for Public Policy for the region's at
:25:16. > :25:21.Glasgow University. Do you think it's reasonable, I know the
:25:22. > :25:26.economy's Martin Woofl is writing the financial Times tomorrow. Here
:25:26. > :25:35.it is "A budget without economic significance". Is it really just
:25:35. > :25:40.mirrors an smoke? Well, the very beginning the OBR say the chance is
:25:40. > :25:45.it's a fiscally neutral budget, the OBR confirm that is the case. The
:25:45. > :25:48.impact on growth is virtually nil and we're talking about 56
:25:48. > :25:53.different measures at the end of the day generated a change in
:25:53. > :25:59.income of less than �2 billion in any one year. So relatively small
:25:59. > :26:03.changes at the Marge gin. To be clear this is because the big
:26:03. > :26:07.decisions were all taken last year. Once you set that idea that we will
:26:07. > :26:09.have a period of austerity and cuts in public spending and you say
:26:09. > :26:13.which is almost the first thing George Osborne said today, I'm not
:26:13. > :26:17.going to change that, you haven't got much room to manoeuvre. There
:26:17. > :26:20.was no room to manoeuvre when the Chancellor's target was to make
:26:20. > :26:24.sure that the markets are not spooked by anything he does. He
:26:24. > :26:29.doesn't look like he's giving away large amounts of money that would
:26:29. > :26:34.endanger his meeting targets in 2016/17. He had limited room to
:26:34. > :26:40.manoeuvre when that was the target. What do you make of this oil and
:26:40. > :26:43.gas business? The measures are extremely useful. I think it's
:26:43. > :26:48.important to separate between measures that will increase tax
:26:48. > :26:52.take and measures that will increase activity in the North Sea.
:26:52. > :26:57.The measures announced today will go a long way to increase the life
:26:57. > :27:00.of the North Sea... That's the point John Swinney was making. The
:27:00. > :27:04.problem for him, if he wants to run an independent Scotland, is that
:27:04. > :27:07.yes, of course, he's in favour of measures that increase protduction
:27:07. > :27:14.in the North Sea offer the long- term. But in the short to medium
:27:14. > :27:18.term you could have a bigger revenue hit on revenue you are
:27:18. > :27:25.relying on. Yes we're relying on continually high oil prices at a
:27:25. > :27:30.time when production is falling and measures that will help reduce the
:27:30. > :27:36.decline in production. Experts are indicating that's still the case.
:27:36. > :27:40.He's forecasting �5 billion to �10 billion maximum in terms of North
:27:40. > :27:45.Sea revenues. It's an important place for jobs. It is an important
:27:45. > :27:53.place for growth. These measures will maintain that sector for some
:27:53. > :27:59.considerable time. It would affect the debate over the figures.
:27:59. > :28:04.JERS figures were taking account of lower rates of tax revenues.
:28:04. > :28:07.this low. Not as low as that. Relatively close to that. Thank you
:28:07. > :28:13.Relatively close to that. Thank you very much. Now the front pages:
:28:13. > :28:23.They are all takes on the Budget. Osborne raids the aged to aid the
:28:23. > :28:23.
:28:23. > :28:29.waged. The Daily Mail, Osborne picks the
:28:29. > :28:35.pockets of pensioners. Four million elderly to pay bill for Chancellor'