:00:10. > :00:13.Tonight on Newsnight Scotland: What with pasties, petrol queues
:00:13. > :00:18.and tea parties at Bute House, has anyone noticed that there is an
:00:18. > :00:24.election on? And we will have the latest on the
:00:24. > :00:28.gas leak on the Elgin platform. Good evening. For all our cynicism
:00:28. > :00:31.about politics, we have become a country with an election every year.
:00:31. > :00:34.In May, it is the turn of councillors to motivate our jaded
:00:34. > :00:38.palate for another bite at the democratic pie. But is anybody
:00:38. > :00:41.hungry? There is a suspicion that turnout has been artificially
:00:41. > :00:51.boosted in recent years by having parliamentary elections at the same
:00:51. > :00:53.
:00:53. > :00:59.time. Derek Bateman tries to whet your appetite.
:00:59. > :01:02.The council elections. You only have to say it to hear a collective
:01:02. > :01:07.groan around the country. Why? It is the level of government closest
:01:07. > :01:13.to us, from the pavements we walk on to the lamps that light them,
:01:13. > :01:17.from the potholes we fall into to the Home helps that get us up. This
:01:17. > :01:22.is the first election since Preedy evolution 1995 which has not
:01:22. > :01:27.piggyback on another boat. The crucial Glasgow count takes place
:01:27. > :01:32.here at the SECC. We used to think that PR would enlighten interest,
:01:32. > :01:38.or has the single transferable vote and multi-member wards had the
:01:38. > :01:44.opposite effect? The turnout 17 years ago was 45%. Some analysts
:01:44. > :01:47.think it will be even lower at this time. Political scientists would
:01:47. > :01:52.say that proportional representation does increase voter
:01:52. > :01:56.turnout, but it does not give too much credit to the electoral system.
:01:56. > :02:01.The big issue is whether people care about the election. People
:02:01. > :02:05.tend to link their vote directly to what they pay. Do you think the
:02:05. > :02:08.years of council tax freeze will have dulled interest? Exactly. It
:02:08. > :02:13.makes you wonder what local government is for nowadays when you
:02:14. > :02:18.have got the council tax freeze. The current SNP government wants to
:02:18. > :02:21.consolidate and centralise a lot of public services in Scotland. So if
:02:21. > :02:27.people feel that the council is not doing anything, they are less
:02:27. > :02:32.likely to vote, regardless of the system. We have changed the voting
:02:32. > :02:37.system, but is it also time now to look again at the structure and
:02:37. > :02:40.powers of local councils? We have 32 of them. Do we need them? We
:02:40. > :02:48.only have 14 health authorities, and we are moving towards a single
:02:48. > :02:52.police force and a single fire service. Time to been some? This
:02:52. > :02:56.Government, re-elected last May, has publicly committed to not
:02:57. > :03:00.making changes in council boundaries. That is partly to do
:03:00. > :03:04.with their recognition that it would be immensely disruptive.
:03:04. > :03:09.Another factor worth bearing in mind is that just as I can find any
:03:09. > :03:14.number of people who would save 32 councils are too many and we should
:03:14. > :03:19.have fewer, when I ask people to give me a number as to exactly how
:03:19. > :03:22.few that should be and to name the council's which would necessarily
:03:22. > :03:28.be combined together to reduce the number, they either go silent or
:03:28. > :03:30.they begin to argue about whether there should be one Ayrshire or one
:03:30. > :03:35.lecture or whether East Dunbartonshire should going to
:03:35. > :03:41.Glasgow and so on. It is easy to say fewer councils, very difficult
:03:41. > :03:45.to arrive at an agreed number. the other end of the scale, can we
:03:45. > :03:50.really say our four main cities exude the sense of power and vigour
:03:50. > :03:54.that London has, or many other European centres, where elected
:03:54. > :03:59.leaders are politicians who rival national ministers? There has been
:03:59. > :04:02.an argument for a while about whether we have directly-elected
:04:02. > :04:07.provosts, as is the popular term here. The jury is still out on May
:04:07. > :04:11.oral elections, with the exception of London, where clearly, there are
:04:11. > :04:17.big, larger-than-life characters competing. Elsewhere, it has been a
:04:17. > :04:22.mixed bag. I think it would make sense to give local authorities and
:04:22. > :04:30.possibly local mayors more power. Direct election would give them a
:04:30. > :04:34.stronger local mandate. In my opinion, that would be good. Yet in
:04:34. > :04:38.rural areas, many voters positively reject party politicians altogether
:04:38. > :04:42.in favour of independence, believing that people's wishes, not
:04:42. > :04:48.party policy, should drive decision-making. Tell that to
:04:48. > :04:53.Glasgow, which will provide a reflection of the national mood.
:04:53. > :04:56.His Alex Salmond still on course, or will Lamond get a lift?
:04:56. > :04:58.I am joined now by our elections guru, Professor John Curtice of
:04:58. > :05:06.Strathclyde University, and Scottish political correspondent of
:05:06. > :05:09.the Times, Lorraine Davidson. John, I was going to ask you about
:05:09. > :05:13.polls in the elections, but I am not sure there are any. They have
:05:13. > :05:19.not been any pause of how people intend to vote in these local
:05:19. > :05:23.elections. That leaves us with an area of uncertainty. It is true
:05:23. > :05:27.that when recent local elections have been held on the same day as
:05:27. > :05:31.Holyrood elections, for the most part the overall result in the
:05:31. > :05:34.local elections have been close to the result in the Holyrood
:05:34. > :05:39.elections. That might suggest that our best guide to how people would
:05:39. > :05:43.vote in the local elections is how people would vote in a Scottish
:05:43. > :05:46.parliament election. But how people say they would vote in a Scottish
:05:46. > :05:53.parliament election is different from how they would vote in a
:05:53. > :06:01.Westminster election. Some other large opinion poll leads we have,
:06:01. > :06:08.we are not sure how far they would translate. Glasgow presumably is
:06:08. > :06:12.one to watch? It will be the Big story, the one there has been the
:06:12. > :06:18.build-up around. You could say that the SNP have set themselves up with
:06:18. > :06:21.unrealistic expectations to take the biggest city, which has been in
:06:21. > :06:25.Labour's control forever. That is the big hurdle they have to get
:06:25. > :06:29.across in terms of the local elections, firstly establishing
:06:29. > :06:33.that it can be done. They have put that in people's minds now. It will
:06:33. > :06:39.be a big story not just in terms of the Scottish results, but in terms
:06:39. > :06:43.of the UK results. If Joanne Lamont loses Glasgow, that will be
:06:43. > :06:48.disastrous so early in her leadership. It will also be very
:06:48. > :06:53.bad for Ed Miliband, particularly if he fails to win London. Do you
:06:53. > :07:00.think the SNP have a realistic chance in Glasgow? The SNP would
:07:00. > :07:05.have to do extraordinarily well to gain control of Glasgow. There are
:07:05. > :07:12.a couple of different things. It is probably likely that the Labour
:07:12. > :07:19.Party will lose control of Glasgow. The kind of swing the SNP require
:07:19. > :07:24.to do that, I think we would be surprised if they did not manage 5%
:07:24. > :07:28.or so. But for the SNP themselves to get the 40 seats they need for
:07:28. > :07:31.overall control is a very tall order and right at the top end of
:07:31. > :07:35.expectations. The most likely outcome in Glasgow is that neither
:07:35. > :07:40.Labour nor the SNP have a majority and that the Greens will probably
:07:40. > :07:45.hold the balance of power. It will be fascinating to see afterwards
:07:45. > :07:53.hoover greens are willing to back, on what terms and whether it is a
:07:53. > :07:57.minority administration orate coalition. What about the other
:07:58. > :08:02.parties, like the Liberal Democrats? They frankly look as
:08:02. > :08:06.though they are on a hiding to nothing. They did badly in last
:08:06. > :08:10.year's Holyrood elections. If you look at the Scottish local by-
:08:10. > :08:14.elections, their vote is down by nine points on average compared
:08:14. > :08:22.with 2007. And in Edinburgh, they are the party that is most closely
:08:22. > :08:25.tarred with the brush of the fiasco. So in places with substantial
:08:25. > :08:28.numbers of Liberal Democrat councillors where the party has
:08:28. > :08:32.been part of the council administration, the party could
:08:32. > :08:36.suffer serious losses. They probably have the bleakest
:08:36. > :08:40.prospects of the four main parties in Scotland. Then maybe you could
:08:40. > :08:45.say something to cheer the Conservatives up? They do not have
:08:45. > :08:55.a lot to lose. Their best hope is that they might still managed to be
:08:55. > :08:55.
:08:55. > :08:58.the biggest party in South Ayrshire. The truth is that at some point,
:08:58. > :09:03.the Conservatives in Scotland have to do more than hold their own,
:09:03. > :09:06.given that they do not have very much already. I suspect we will not
:09:06. > :09:10.see much of what David Cameron was hoping for in the Conservative
:09:11. > :09:17.conference last weekend, some signs of progress with the Scottish
:09:17. > :09:21.Conservatives. We have three new party leaders in action in an
:09:21. > :09:25.election for the first time. So even if people are not interested
:09:25. > :09:29.in the local elections, it is a test for all of them. What are the
:09:29. > :09:33.implications of that? Ruth Davidson's set herself up during
:09:33. > :09:37.her leadership, saying that the local elections would be the point
:09:37. > :09:41.at which she made her mark. Actually, there is no great
:09:41. > :09:45.evidence that the Tories are going anywhere in Scotland. The Greens
:09:45. > :09:50.may end up having a good set of results. If they end up being the
:09:50. > :09:54.kingmakers in Glasgow, they will look like people who have taken
:09:54. > :09:59.some sort of prize from these results. In the main, the story
:09:59. > :10:06.will still be who controls Scotland. The results of the local elections
:10:06. > :10:11.will be seen in the context of the referendum. Is this a staging post
:10:11. > :10:16.on the road to a referendum? Do the SNP take Glasgow? Do they make
:10:16. > :10:22.further gains elsewhere, all our Labour able to make a comeback and
:10:22. > :10:27.regain control? Labour could fight and oppositional-style campaign in
:10:27. > :10:31.these elections. That is the beauty of not being in power anywhere. You
:10:31. > :10:36.could say there are the Tory cuts in Westminster, which the Lib Dems
:10:36. > :10:39.are tied in with as well. You could say the cuts in Edinburgh are not
:10:39. > :10:42.protecting public services, so there is the opportunity for Labour
:10:42. > :10:47.to make a decent fist of this. But balance that against the fact that
:10:47. > :10:52.their troops are demoralised and the SNP troops are very much up for
:10:52. > :10:57.the referendum fight. It will not tell us much unless there is a
:10:57. > :11:02.reasonable turnout, will it? and no. I am not that pessimistic
:11:02. > :11:08.about the turnout. The turnout is actually relatively good. We tend
:11:08. > :11:17.to get a turnout in the low 40%, certainly better than England. In
:11:17. > :11:23.England over the last few years, low turnouts have been the norm. It
:11:23. > :11:32.will depend on whether -- the degree to which people regard this
:11:32. > :11:37.as a surrogate for their views about independence. It is the
:11:37. > :11:41.degree to which people want to talk about Alex Salmond and independents
:11:41. > :11:46.and how far that brings people to the polls which will be crucial so
:11:46. > :11:49.far as turnout is concerned. If the SNP don't do as well as the high
:11:49. > :11:55.expectations they have set for themselves, people both north and
:11:55. > :11:59.south of the border will begin to say maybe the SNP bubble is
:11:59. > :12:05.beginning to burst. The SNP probably have everything to lose in
:12:05. > :12:10.these local elections and not a lot to gain. We had some quite
:12:10. > :12:19.interesting UK polls over the last few days. We have indeed. The
:12:19. > :12:25.Budget, together with other recent events,... Including pasties, it
:12:25. > :12:35.may be that the Conservative roads are beginning to fall significantly
:12:35. > :12:35.
:12:35. > :12:38.below what they got in the last election. Until now, we have been
:12:38. > :12:41.used to the Liberal Democrats being in trouble for being in office. For
:12:41. > :12:45.the first time, the Conservatives look as though they may have lost
:12:45. > :12:49.their touch. To that extent, we may have seen some significant news
:12:49. > :12:53.over the last few days. It is extraordinary. The Government
:12:53. > :12:57.appear to have created a petrol crisis over the last 24 hours all
:12:57. > :13:02.of their very own. I think they fancied that, because they were in
:13:02. > :13:06.the midst of a sleaze crisis. And they thought the way to get out of
:13:06. > :13:15.the sleaze crisis and deflect attention from more their rich
:13:15. > :13:20.donors is to get the heat on to Evan -- Ed Miliband, whose big
:13:20. > :13:24.backer is the Unite union, with the threat of the strike action. So if
:13:24. > :13:29.it is not an oxymoron, you can see why Tory strategists thought, let's
:13:29. > :13:32.get out of this mess by throwing this at him. People remember how
:13:32. > :13:42.damaging the last few crisis was for the Government. But it has
:13:42. > :13:49.
:13:49. > :13:58.Is there a sense that you would expect... It does not feel
:13:58. > :14:05.sustainable. Paul taking in the aftermath of a budget, and then you
:14:05. > :14:15.get the opposition bouncing up 10 points. You have had a run of
:14:15. > :14:16.
:14:16. > :14:23.things for the Tories, the budget, the sleaze row. Tories care about
:14:23. > :14:30.their rich friends, David Cameron is trying to say we are all in this
:14:30. > :14:36.together. That will be a long-term problem for the Tories.
:14:36. > :14:42.Five days since then gas leak on the Elgin platform, they are no
:14:42. > :14:48.closer to understanding what is going on. One of the offshore
:14:48. > :14:52.unions escorts in that the exclusion zone will be extended.
:14:52. > :15:01.This situation it is that a significant amount of gas is
:15:01. > :15:08.leaking into the North Sea. Earlier, Total suggested they had found the
:15:08. > :15:18.source of the league. It is not clear or whether the Leakeys from a
:15:18. > :15:19.
:15:19. > :15:27.disused paper. -- League. That can be get news that the source is a
:15:28. > :15:37.small reservoir or rather than a large well. Today, the news that
:15:38. > :15:40.
:15:40. > :15:47.two companies are advising Total on what to do next. Not best pleased
:15:47. > :15:57.for our Unite, the odd shower Worker's Union. They want to extend
:15:57. > :16:06.
:16:06. > :16:12.the exclusion zone. Back to the clear, they're all up seems to be
:16:12. > :16:18.that it will disperse. None of these scenarios are certain to
:16:18. > :16:22.happen. We were led to believe we would
:16:22. > :16:30.half an interview with David Hainsworth but we're told he is no
:16:30. > :16:40.longer available. I spot to a reporter in Aberdeen, Steven Duff.
:16:40. > :16:42.
:16:42. > :16:48.They now know that while the gas is emanating, this source of the gas
:16:48. > :16:55.is 4,000 metres underneath the seabed at a reservoir above the
:16:55. > :17:02.productive reservoir. It was causing them problems. The gases
:17:02. > :17:11.coming up the pipe the wrong way and that is why it has been leaking.
:17:11. > :17:21.Good-news that they know what they're feeling worse. -- dealing
:17:21. > :17:21.
:17:21. > :17:26.with. As I understand it, the reservoir is not a high temperature,
:17:27. > :17:33.high-pressure well. The gas does not contain hydrogen sulphide which
:17:33. > :17:43.is toxic. The gases flammable and that is the danger. The likelihood
:17:43. > :17:45.
:17:45. > :17:49.is that -- was that the gas was toxic. It does not seem sort. The
:17:49. > :17:56.original productive reservoir which was a high pressure reservoir which
:17:56. > :18:04.had caused problems to plug that. That is bemused. It makes it
:18:04. > :18:14.difficult job and that bit easier. Let us imagine they can get
:18:14. > :18:14.
:18:14. > :18:22.personnel on the problem -- plat form. Is that simple to plug it?
:18:22. > :18:32.The two options are or, one would involve getting control workers out
:18:32. > :18:35.
:18:35. > :18:43.to the platform to plug the well. That is not an unusual operation.
:18:43. > :18:53.Total has employed in another company who were involved plugging
:18:53. > :18:55.
:18:55. > :19:04.the deep-water horizon well. Total said they could for see being able
:19:04. > :19:10.to fly helicopters onto the platform. We understand it is still
:19:10. > :19:19.burning. The gas cloud is just being blown in a different
:19:19. > :19:27.direction? Total were forced to admit that flair was left burning
:19:27. > :19:37.when the platform was abandoned. You can see that we're stack but
:19:37. > :19:43.
:19:43. > :19:52.you cannot see that Leah. A bit player is only a matter of inches.
:19:52. > :19:57.We are having a problem... We're getting contradictory accounts. One
:19:57. > :20:07.story is emerging from Total that they're putting health and safety
:20:07. > :20:13.first on Monday and they wanted to evacuate their personnel. The other
:20:13. > :20:23.story is that this Blair is part of the safety procedure for a band in
:20:23. > :20:27.
:20:27. > :20:37.up a platform. It has been very difficult to get information from
:20:37. > :20:38.
:20:38. > :20:48.Total. The people at the end of the line are not media people. They do
:20:48. > :20:51.
:20:51. > :20:56.not want them to be speculating. It makes it difficult. Their flair is