:00:16. > :00:20.to be doing more, those voices are only likely to be getting louder.
:00:20. > :00:25.Tonight on Newsnight Scotland we have to referendum campaigns but
:00:25. > :00:30.will there be a referendum? There is still confusion about how it
:00:30. > :00:34.will be organised and whether there will be a question on D Lomax and
:00:34. > :00:36.whether the referendum will be legal. We tried to shed some light.
:00:36. > :00:39.Good evening and welcome to the increasingly surreal world of
:00:39. > :00:42.Scottish politics. If you believe some reports in the newspapers this
:00:42. > :00:45.week we're now in a situation where those who don't want independence
:00:45. > :00:48.for Scotland are determined to have a straightforward yes or no vote on
:00:48. > :00:52.the issue and those who fervently back independence are determined to
:00:52. > :00:54.have anything but a straightforward yes or no vote. But is that a fair
:00:54. > :00:57.picture of where we are now? How can the increasingly bitter
:00:57. > :01:01.wrangling over the issue be resolved? And do the public, who
:01:01. > :01:09.after all will have to put up with two years of this stuff, give a
:01:10. > :01:13.hoot? Here's David Allison. April 1992, this was the streets of
:01:13. > :01:19.Glasgow after Labour lost another election to the Conservatives,
:01:19. > :01:22.dashing hopes for a devolved Scottish Parliament. That was a
:01:23. > :01:28.real grassroots movement across Scottish society which symbolised
:01:28. > :01:34.events on George Square and was also symbolised by the diva camp on
:01:34. > :01:40.the hill. At the time the High School building had been earmarked
:01:40. > :01:44.for the location of a future Scottish Parliament. Fast forward
:01:44. > :01:51.to 2012 and Scotland's constitution remains centre stage. The pro-
:01:51. > :01:56.independence party -- campaign launched last month with the pro-
:01:56. > :02:03.union campaign getting together on Monday. They do not agree on
:02:03. > :02:13.anything apart from using The Country for their theme tunes.
:02:13. > :02:18.While the timetable is no longer an issue behind the scenes are heating
:02:18. > :02:25.-- things are heating up. Michael Moore met the First Minister in
:02:25. > :02:29.February as the UK Government threatened to legislate about the
:02:29. > :02:35.referendum. There are conditions attached. The SNP want its own
:02:35. > :02:40.question on independence with an option on a second question. The UK
:02:40. > :02:43.Government is insisting on a single question approved by the lack look
:02:43. > :02:47.-- electoral commission. Four months on there has been no follow-
:02:47. > :02:55.up meeting to resolve the issue. Alex Salmond is thinking of going
:02:55. > :03:00.it alone without legal approval. Is it provoking a legal challenge
:03:00. > :03:05.because he knows he cannot win on the independence question alone or
:03:05. > :03:09.his seat counting on public opinion shifting to help move the blockage?
:03:09. > :03:16.This TV licence ad shows a couple progressing their whole
:03:16. > :03:21.relationship in a few seconds. so glad we met. Me too. Actually...
:03:21. > :03:24.It's not you, it's me. I want a divorce. With two years to go until
:03:24. > :03:28.the referendum there are probably some people who do not even know
:03:28. > :03:32.each other yet who will have children and split up before we get
:03:32. > :03:37.to vote and they will be doing it in real time. What is the public
:03:37. > :03:41.meant to make of this kind nine? Polls suggest that four out of five
:03:41. > :03:45.of us will vote when the time comes. The Yes campaign and the Better
:03:45. > :03:51.Together campaign up and running but are they the talk of this
:03:51. > :03:56.place? Nobody has come in and mentioned it. No one has made a
:03:57. > :04:04.song and dance about it. Will it be talked about? Maybe eventually but
:04:04. > :04:07.not yet. Nearer the time when we go to vote then that is when people
:04:07. > :04:12.will start to talk about it. Even though we have been on the
:04:12. > :04:22.television. Nearer the time everybody will be talking about it.
:04:22. > :04:24.
:04:24. > :04:28.Maybe nearer the time... Two years on? Yes. Celebrations when the yes
:04:28. > :04:32.campaign won the 1997 referendum leading to the current Parliament
:04:32. > :04:35.which came after a long campaign which began five years earlier. You
:04:35. > :04:39.could argue that there is time yet for the public to get passionate
:04:39. > :04:46.and worked up this time around. Whatever question of questions they
:04:46. > :04:49.are eventually asked. Right, let's see if we can get any
:04:49. > :04:51.answers with this lot. In Edinburgh the blogger Kate Higgins and the
:04:51. > :04:55.Spectator's Alex Massie. And here Lorraine Davidson of the Times and
:04:55. > :04:59.Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University.
:05:00. > :05:04.John, take us through this. It is utter confusion. What is the
:05:04. > :05:08.timetable before we get any straight answers? Let us appreciate
:05:08. > :05:12.where we are. We have had the consultation from the UK Government
:05:12. > :05:17.and the UK Government concluded that people only wanted one
:05:17. > :05:20.question. The Scottish government held its consultation over a longer
:05:20. > :05:26.period and finished in May but we do not know the results of that
:05:26. > :05:31.consultation, it has gone out to external evaluation. To that extent,
:05:31. > :05:34.to some degree, what the Scottish government decides will not be
:05:35. > :05:39.within its control. Crucially I don't think anything will happen
:05:39. > :05:42.until we get the result of that consultation. From that we will
:05:42. > :05:46.then know whether or not the Scottish government thinks that
:05:46. > :05:50.there is it indeed a demand for a second question and then we will
:05:51. > :05:54.start to see negotiations between Michael Moore and Alex Salmond
:05:55. > :05:58.start to take place. Then the question is will they be able to do
:05:58. > :06:04.a deal on the transfer of power from Westminster to the Scottish
:06:04. > :06:09.Parliament? Or not? The Scottish Parliament has to agree. It has a
:06:09. > :06:12.veto on any such transfer of power was. The fascinating question is
:06:12. > :06:16.that of the Scottish government decides there is a demand for two
:06:16. > :06:19.questions and it decides to stick to that demand, is it willing to
:06:19. > :06:24.lose the opportunity of having an independence referendum which has
:06:24. > :06:28.been authorised by Westminster in favour of having a two-question
:06:28. > :06:32.referendum, the second question being about the SNP's second
:06:32. > :06:35.preference, choosing what the SNP think is still the legitimate
:06:35. > :06:40.authority of the Scottish Parliament to hold such a
:06:40. > :06:43.referendum. If it decides to go down that track, either way we will
:06:43. > :06:47.get the process of the Bill being passed through Holyrood during the
:06:47. > :06:52.course of next year and it is only when a bill has been passed in the
:06:52. > :06:56.autumn of next year that the question of whether or not it will
:06:57. > :07:02.be open to legal challenge. Does someone take it to the courts? If
:07:02. > :07:06.they take it to the court, will it be decided by UK Supreme Court?
:07:06. > :07:09.Them we wait to see whether their Lordships agree or disagree with
:07:09. > :07:15.the Scottish government in its interpretation of the Scotland Act
:07:15. > :07:18.or whether the UK Government is right and the Bill being passed by
:07:18. > :07:24.the Scottish Parliament is illegal and the referendum cannot take
:07:25. > :07:29.place. If they decide that them we may well say we will not halt the
:07:29. > :07:35.referendum and he will go back and say that he could not hold his
:07:35. > :07:39.referendum and he will need a another mandate. Right. That is
:07:39. > :07:45.clear then. All of that theory depends on Alex Salmond being able
:07:45. > :07:49.to say that his consultation has shown that there is a groundswell
:07:49. > :07:53.for the second question. It depends whether he has evidence that he can
:07:53. > :07:57.cite from his consultation that there is a groundswell for a second
:07:57. > :08:01.question in the referendum and secondly whether he decides that he
:08:01. > :08:05.needs that second question to avoid the question of being defeated in
:08:05. > :08:09.the first question and his party is willing to allow him to go down
:08:09. > :08:13.that path because, bear in mind, some people say, we are in politics
:08:13. > :08:16.in order to hold a referendum on independence and secure
:08:16. > :08:20.independence, what are we doing throwing away the one opportunity
:08:20. > :08:24.to do that? It is a question of whether his party will allow him
:08:24. > :08:29.and what judgment he makes on the risks of one question verses a two-
:08:29. > :08:34.question referendum. Right. Lorraine, if I your theory? Well,
:08:34. > :08:38.if you were Alex Salmond and you had taken your party to a historic
:08:38. > :08:41.landslide election in the Scottish Parliament to have a majority in
:08:41. > :08:46.government, you have got an opportunity to have a referendum
:08:46. > :08:49.but perhaps it may go down in history as the man who took his
:08:49. > :08:53.party to a humiliating defeat when they got a once-in-a-lifetime
:08:53. > :08:57.defeat, is that the part you want to go down? I don't think it is.
:08:57. > :09:02.Adding that is why we have had a lot of talking up around the second
:09:02. > :09:06.question from the end -- SNP, but trying to do it in the hands off
:09:06. > :09:10.kind of way. They want a civic Scotland a kind of way which would
:09:10. > :09:18.replicate the energy that we saw and I don't think it can happen.
:09:18. > :09:20.The fatal flaw in that is that the most of the mainstream parties in
:09:20. > :09:25.Scotland were leading it and gripping it and moving it forward
:09:25. > :09:29.and the public when with them. I don't think this will magically
:09:29. > :09:33.happen. If you are the Scottish government, what do you do?
:09:33. > :09:37.have to redefine that you are going on an independence journey and it
:09:37. > :09:40.is a two-stage journey and you want people to go the whole way with you
:09:40. > :09:44.and if they are not prepared to go the whole way, will they go
:09:44. > :09:50.halfway? Can you do it as a two- pronged strategy towards
:09:50. > :09:53.independence. What does that mean? A two-question referendum? In means
:09:53. > :10:00.embracing the second question which they are trying to pretend is not
:10:00. > :10:06.really theirs. It is not the Scottish public. But you will not
:10:06. > :10:10.happen... I am still not clear what you are saying. I used saying they
:10:10. > :10:20.should go for the two-question referendum? They should be honest
:10:20. > :10:20.
:10:20. > :10:23.about and say that they do actually believe in it. It is a Yes, Yes
:10:23. > :10:26.campaign. A Yes, Yes vote. If they can't get up, what should they do?
:10:26. > :10:31.It will be challenged in the court because there is no way David
:10:31. > :10:37.Cameron will agree to it. If Alex Salmond can walk out with his head
:10:37. > :10:42.held high and say it is a disgrace and it is all about London and he
:10:42. > :10:46.will come up with his integrity intact. All right, Kate Higgins, do
:10:46. > :10:51.you agree with that? I don't know if you're actually in the SNP but
:10:51. > :10:57.you are broadly sympathetic to the Yes campaign. You can see it is
:10:57. > :11:06.quite an agonising decision. The last thing you want to do is lose
:11:06. > :11:11.And I do not think there is any doubt that the SNP is confident it
:11:11. > :11:16.will win. The Poles are where they are. The most interesting finding
:11:16. > :11:22.this week is that 70% of the Scottish public do not trust
:11:22. > :11:26.Scotland's interests in the hands of Westminster, but over 70% do
:11:26. > :11:33.trust the Scottish Government to stand up on its interests, which is
:11:33. > :11:38.extremely hopeful. Isn't the logic what they are saying is to have a
:11:38. > :11:43.two question referendum? Devo max will be on the ballot paper, but
:11:43. > :11:49.there as the taste -- but they as the Status Quo. We will not go into
:11:49. > :11:53.the referendum with the parties offering what it currently is that
:11:53. > :12:00.in terms of political powers. In terms of that, people need to be
:12:00. > :12:05.careful about... This is not about Alex Salmond's decision, or the
:12:05. > :12:12.political parties, but the Scottish public have said consistently that
:12:12. > :12:17.they are wanting some poor -- some element of devo max. They should
:12:17. > :12:21.not deny the Scottish public what is wanted. The political parties
:12:21. > :12:25.should catch up with food Scottish people in terms of what is wanted
:12:25. > :12:28.in terms of constitutional aspirations. None of them will want
:12:28. > :12:35.to take the chance of being delivered a bloody nose by the
:12:35. > :12:38.electorate. Alex Massey, presumably you would snort at the idea of
:12:38. > :12:44.nationalists desperately wanting independence but not wanting to
:12:44. > :12:50.vote on it. What do you think will happen? Much of this is a problem
:12:50. > :12:57.of Alex Salmond's own making, winning two convincingly, and the
:12:57. > :13:01.scale has made his life more difficult. If he goes for a two
:13:01. > :13:07.question referendum, and this snarls up in the court, open to
:13:07. > :13:13.challenge and other things John Curtice was accurately laying out,
:13:13. > :13:20.and then he decides not to have a referendum, which is the suggestion
:13:20. > :13:23.being put out Mr Slade by some Labour types such as Brian Wilson,
:13:23. > :13:29.-- bridge out rather mischievously. He can run the risk of looking
:13:29. > :13:34.ridiculous. Most people outside the party political media world, most
:13:34. > :13:39.ordinary voters, would look at this and say he had an opportunity to
:13:39. > :13:42.have his referendum, and yes, Scotland should be or no you
:13:42. > :13:49.shouldn't be, that is a clear question for people to make their
:13:49. > :13:54.minds up about. To fail to have a referendum, I think that we do both
:13:54. > :13:58.his reputation and that of the SNP enormous damage. For that reason, I
:13:58. > :14:03.assume some sort of deal will be done between Westminster and
:14:03. > :14:12.Hollywood. And that there will be a referendum and that it will be a
:14:13. > :14:17.one question referendum. -- Holyrood. If you have a two
:14:17. > :14:22.question referendum, you make independence less likely. It is the
:14:22. > :14:25.way for nationalists to hedge their bets. Since everyone is agreed
:14:25. > :14:29.there will be more transfer of powers, or tax-raising and tax-
:14:29. > :14:35.cutting powers to the Scottish Parliament, to some extent, that
:14:35. > :14:40.question is moot, too. You do not actually need that second option.
:14:40. > :14:44.Kate Higgins, I am curious what your opinion is. If the British
:14:44. > :14:48.Government sticks its heels in and says, we are not going to transfer
:14:48. > :14:52.this section that the authority to the Scottish Parliament, that is
:14:52. > :14:55.that there are two questions, only if there is a yes or no to
:14:55. > :15:01.independence, do you think the Scottish Government should just
:15:01. > :15:07.have one question or stick their heels in and say, we will organise
:15:07. > :15:15.our own referendum and the devil take the consequences? I think it
:15:15. > :15:20.will depend other things. People have to remember, by the time we
:15:20. > :15:26.get a 2014, the UK Government's austerity programme will have
:15:26. > :15:29.kicked in, already having David Cameron on Monday that there are
:15:29. > :15:37.more welfare reforms coming. The reasons to stay together become
:15:38. > :15:41.fewer. In the light of that climate, I think, if the UK Government and
:15:41. > :15:45.the anti- independence parties decide that they are going to call
:15:45. > :15:51.the shots, they may be very surprised that the answer then
:15:51. > :15:56.returned from the Scottish people. It is a case of why meddle with me?
:15:56. > :16:01.I understand your political point. But do you think the Scottish
:16:01. > :16:05.Government should organise its own referendum or simply agree to have
:16:05. > :16:10.one question one? I think it depends on circumstances and we are
:16:10. > :16:15.the political vibes are falling at the time. At the moment, there is
:16:15. > :16:19.no indication -- there is no indication from yes campaign in
:16:19. > :16:23.front of us that they are wanting anything other than a one question
:16:23. > :16:26.referendum and may go for that. That is because there may be
:16:26. > :16:30.political vibes that suggest that the Scottish people are being
:16:30. > :16:35.absolutely prepared to fund the knows that the UK Government and
:16:35. > :16:41.take their chances. Briefly, Lorraine, do you think they would
:16:41. > :16:45.go with a one question referendum? No, if the polls and as they are
:16:45. > :16:49.the moment. Alex Salmond should have done it at the peak of his
:16:49. > :16:53.powers. He will be more unpopular and has no chance. Switching
:16:53. > :16:58.subjects, do you have any indications from all your polling
:16:58. > :17:03.evidence, we know who is in favour and against, a people interested?
:17:03. > :17:08.How is this rated compared to all sorts of other things? One of the
:17:08. > :17:12.things mentioned in that film, when people were asked a few weeks ago
:17:12. > :17:16.whether they would be likely to vote in the referendum, nearly 80%
:17:16. > :17:21.said they thought they were certain to vote. In contrast, British
:17:21. > :17:27.opinion polls asking the same question, those get just over 50%.
:17:27. > :17:32.There is no doubt, people may not be interested in the issue is a
:17:32. > :17:38.process, but at interested in the substance of independence itself. -
:17:38. > :17:40.- but a interested. So likely to vote? I think that is the one
:17:40. > :17:45.ballot you could organise at the moment where you would be certain
:17:45. > :17:50.of a high turnout. We shall leave it there. Thank you all very much.
:17:50. > :17:54.A look at the front pages. In the Scotsman, leading on a handshake
:17:54. > :17:58.between the Queen and Martin McGuinness. At the other papers
:17:58. > :18:06.lead on the banks, banks wrecked interest rates, saying the Scottish