:00:14. > :00:17.scientist, I do not want to be rich, Tonight on Newsnight Scotland,
:00:17. > :00:21.politics as usual has been suspended for the Olympics, but
:00:21. > :00:26.David Cameron has been a Scotland limbering up for a post Games
:00:26. > :00:30.relaunch. What were the coalition any to do to recover from their
:00:30. > :00:33.fall? Visiting a factory creating more
:00:33. > :00:39.jobs must have been more fun for the Prime Minister than presiding
:00:39. > :00:43.over an economy mired in recession. His David Cameron now facing a
:00:43. > :00:48.series of decisions that could have profound effects on his Government,
:00:48. > :00:52.his chances of winning an election, and even the independence campaign
:00:52. > :00:59.in Scotland, is it conceivable he could begin by axing some of his
:00:59. > :01:06.best friends? The successful candidate is Ruth
:01:06. > :01:11.Davidson. A fresh start for the Tories. And new leader, who almost
:01:11. > :01:21.scenes designed by central casting to challenge the stereotype of but
:01:21. > :01:24.
:01:24. > :01:28.Scottish Tory lady. I am not a Messiah! But our hopes of a Tory
:01:28. > :01:37.revival made harder when the party does not have its problems to seat
:01:37. > :01:42.at Westminster? He launched a growth strategy a year ago, and now
:01:42. > :01:45.there is no growth. The economy has gone backwards. I have never
:01:45. > :01:50.disguised the fact that Britain faces a very difficult economic
:01:50. > :01:54.situation. We have this debt crisis... The Government has
:01:54. > :02:04.announced a U-turn is on two of the most controversial measures in the
:02:04. > :02:06.
:02:06. > :02:10.Budget. But it is not just opponents who were taking shots at
:02:10. > :02:17.the Conservatives. Some of their own supporters think they are not
:02:17. > :02:23.quite good enough. And while opinion polls may bounce, Labour's
:02:23. > :02:27.currently in the lead across the UK as a whole. While in Scotland, the
:02:27. > :02:31.continuing challenge for the Tories is to widen their appeal be on
:02:31. > :02:39.their core supporters, to reach out to more people who might share
:02:39. > :02:42.certain Tory values but no longer seem to vote for them. The first
:02:42. > :02:46.battle is the battle of the referendum. David Cameron's
:02:46. > :02:50.supporters believe he bounced Alex Salmond into announcing his plans.
:02:50. > :02:55.But while the better together campaign includes people from all
:02:55. > :03:00.the main Unionist parties, it is Labour's Alistair Darling who has
:03:00. > :03:04.sat the biggest role so far. And are the Scottish Tories really able
:03:04. > :03:09.to come up with distinctive policies for Scotland? They drop
:03:09. > :03:12.their opposition to the Scottish Government's plans for minimum
:03:12. > :03:16.pricing for alcohol. Was this new thinking by a new leader or did it
:03:16. > :03:24.just happened because the UK Government was planning a similar
:03:24. > :03:27.move? The biggest test for the Tories in Scotland came in may's
:03:28. > :03:32.council elections. The good news for them was that they became the
:03:32. > :03:37.third party of local Government. The bad news, that they actually
:03:37. > :03:44.lost councillors. They simply avoided the complete humiliation
:03:44. > :03:49.endured by the Lib Dems. But sometimes, at the way politicians
:03:49. > :03:56.are seen by the public is about more than politics alone. Will the
:03:56. > :04:01.feel-good factor of the Olympics and Jubilee help the UK
:04:01. > :04:06.Government's popularity? If that happens, might the Scottish
:04:06. > :04:12.Conservatives start to share in the love?
:04:12. > :04:16.I am joined in London at by the junkies that of the Independent,
:04:16. > :04:26.and he in the studio by Professor John Curtis of Strathclyde
:04:26. > :04:30.University. Bring us up if you will on the polls. UK general election
:04:30. > :04:35.voting intentions, we are the? the first time, the Conservatives
:04:35. > :04:40.seem to be hitting a degree of mid- term trouble. From March, from
:04:40. > :04:45.around the time of the Budget, support for the Conservatives
:04:46. > :04:50.slipped below 35 % for the first time. It has been winning
:04:50. > :04:54.consistently for three months or so. Not disastrously low, but if you
:04:54. > :04:58.look at some of the other ratings, satisfaction with the Government,
:04:58. > :05:01.with David Cameron, whether or not people feel that the Government is
:05:01. > :05:06.handling the economy, all of these numbers have dropped and are now
:05:06. > :05:12.lower than they have been at any time. For we are Labour? They are
:05:12. > :05:16.running at around 41 %. They are about eight points ahead. They're
:05:17. > :05:22.doing as well as they have done at any stage in this Parliament. So
:05:22. > :05:31.far, it seems to be a concern about the short-term competence of the
:05:31. > :05:37.Government. It is Ed Miliband's criticism. She did David Cameron
:05:37. > :05:41.think mid-term blues? Yes. This condition with the Liberal
:05:41. > :05:45.Democrats is that they are in serious difficulty. They have a
:05:45. > :05:50.long-term problems. At the moment, the Conservatives can say that they
:05:50. > :05:53.could recover from this position. They have to worry about a
:05:53. > :05:57.perception that there are not running things terribly well and
:05:57. > :06:03.that becomes apparent deception, and secondly that the economy is
:06:03. > :06:09.not returning to growth. This means that there will be a concern that
:06:09. > :06:18.eventually the public will lose faith. If those impressions are
:06:18. > :06:23.confirmed, the stop and support The SNP are doing rather remarkably
:06:23. > :06:30.well in the polls, are say? It depends. Some polls suggest as
:06:30. > :06:34.many people would vote for them now it as late last year. For
:06:34. > :06:44.Westminster, but the Poles have the support for the SNP down by six
:06:44. > :06:53.points. It looks as though it is unsure. All the polls and the last
:06:53. > :06:57.few months at the same questions. All four showed to varying degrees
:06:57. > :07:01.about a drop in support for independence. The first round of
:07:01. > :07:04.for the independence debate seems to have gone to the other side.
:07:04. > :07:10.They are clearly in the lead in the vast majority of opinion polls,
:07:10. > :07:13.though. What is the feeling in amongst
:07:13. > :07:16.ordinary Tory activists. Do you feel that the Government needs to
:07:17. > :07:23.shake itself up? A month's ordinary Tory activists,
:07:23. > :07:27.we would be keen to see more conservative policies put through.
:07:27. > :07:33.If it is very understandable why George Osborne's ratings have not
:07:33. > :07:36.been great as the moment. He has been hamstrung with Vince Cable. He
:07:36. > :07:41.does not inspire great confidence and the business world.
:07:41. > :07:47.Were the same more conservative policies, what you mean?
:07:47. > :07:53.We want to see lower taxes. Less regulation.
:07:53. > :08:01.Much more taxes? A much more tax cuts. We want to
:08:01. > :08:07.see lower taxes. Less regulation. So you don't believe in George
:08:07. > :08:14.Osborne's austerity agenda? I think we're hamstrings.
:08:14. > :08:17.How are you going to have low taxes and key to his Budget targets?
:08:17. > :08:20.Activists think that if we can there were taxes, we can stimulate
:08:20. > :08:24.growth and encourage people to be creative.
:08:24. > :08:28.If so you think what Vince Cable thinks?
:08:28. > :08:33.Vince Cable thinks different things on different days depending than he
:08:34. > :08:38.is talking to! Lords reforms, which are a priority for the Liberal
:08:38. > :08:43.Democrats and not for anyone else in the country, are taking up too
:08:43. > :08:47.much time and politics. We want to fix the economy. Me what to see
:08:47. > :08:51.more conservative policies. We need to put the Liberal Democrats back
:08:51. > :08:57.in their box. What is the atmosphere at
:08:57. > :09:05.Westminster? Is there a feeling something dramatic needs to happen?
:09:05. > :09:10.You have just heard there than the answers are muddled. How you get
:09:10. > :09:14.out of this is difficult. What happens to rebranding in the mid-
:09:14. > :09:17.term blues? There really is nothing coming that is concrete. For the
:09:17. > :09:22.coalition is in a fairly difficult position. Not particularly
:09:22. > :09:27.unpredictable, though. This was coming. A double-dip recession was
:09:27. > :09:32.on the cards. We are looking at potential autumn recovery. Another
:09:32. > :09:35.triple dip recession Mehdi at the beginning of the next year. I think
:09:36. > :09:41.that jobs will spawn is a problem for David Cameron. Whether he
:09:41. > :09:48.decides to keep him or not it will be interesting. Britain losing its
:09:48. > :09:52.triple-A credit rating was also significant.
:09:52. > :09:57.Defined it credible that David Cameron could actually consider
:09:57. > :10:01.getting rid of George Osborne? George Osborne is not just his
:10:01. > :10:05.Chancellor and the man who came up with the economic strategy which is
:10:05. > :10:10.the badge of identification of this Government, he is also the main
:10:10. > :10:16.party strategist. Look what it's like Tony Blair and
:10:16. > :10:23.Gordon Brown. Tony Blair never moved Gorton for fear of what would
:10:23. > :10:27.happen on the back benches. I don't think that constituency in the
:10:27. > :10:31.party is supportive but George Osborne. I do not think it will be
:10:31. > :10:34.Vince Cable. If he moves William Hague from a Foreign Office, would
:10:34. > :10:38.that split the party down the middle? That I do not think it
:10:38. > :10:44.would be. The problem is, I think that what you were hinting at the
:10:44. > :10:48.beginning was, the project. The Conservatives project. It is almost
:10:48. > :10:55.at David Cameron and George Osborne thing. To a certain extent, it is.
:10:55. > :11:05.But what happens if the credibility of that is at risk? David Cameron
:11:05. > :11:09.may axe George Osborne. Can you see that happening? Given
:11:09. > :11:13.the problems amongst Conservative backbenchers and their unhappiness
:11:13. > :11:19.about the Budget and George Osborne's performance for... Could
:11:19. > :11:22.you imagine David Cameron getting rid of them?
:11:22. > :11:26.I was saying it is very understandable when you have people
:11:26. > :11:30.like Vince Cable in your department why you struggle. There have been
:11:30. > :11:35.some good achievements. When David Cameron came into power, where
:11:35. > :11:40.interest rate was the same as Spain's. The rating agencies are
:11:40. > :11:48.still showing that we are doing OK. They have cut the top rate of
:11:48. > :11:52.income tax and corporation tax. What about the question I ask you?
:11:52. > :11:56.Your answer, I take it, is that you cannot conceive of him getting rid
:11:56. > :12:00.of George Osborne? There will be a reshuffle, but I
:12:00. > :12:04.think George Osborne will be safe. He is doing a good job under the
:12:04. > :12:07.circumstances. The circumstances are strained and they have not got
:12:07. > :12:10.a full Conservative team there to be putting in full Conservative
:12:10. > :12:16.policies. One theory is that the best thing
:12:16. > :12:21.that has happened to George Osborne is Lord upshot making to Robert
:12:21. > :12:24.remarks about him and everyone knowing that he is one of the best
:12:24. > :12:28.pals of Vince Cable. The one thing that is guaranteed to make Tory
:12:28. > :12:34.backbenchers rallied behind George Osborne is being criticised by the
:12:34. > :12:38.Liberal Democrats. She sure. Tensions between
:12:38. > :12:43.Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are much greater. Ian's comments
:12:43. > :12:47.are reflecting that. Conservatives are now saying the reason we're not
:12:47. > :12:52.doing better is because we're being held back. I think that is nonsense
:12:52. > :12:55.as far as the public is concerned. The problem that the public have is
:12:55. > :12:59.that they're beginning to doubt the ability of the Conservative
:12:59. > :13:05.ministers in Government to perform effectively in office. The public
:13:05. > :13:09.had long ago lost confidence in that Liberal Democrats. They got
:13:09. > :13:13.that message long before Conservative MPs. The public are
:13:13. > :13:18.now asking questions about the competence of the Conservatives, if
:13:18. > :13:21.not about the strategic directions. Her you indicated that she thought
:13:21. > :13:25.it was at least conceivable that George Osborne would have to go.
:13:25. > :13:29.But realistically, is that is what would happen in this upcoming
:13:29. > :13:33.reshuffle, what is going to happen that the public will pay any
:13:33. > :13:40.attention to? It is not so much we shuffle
:13:40. > :13:45.changing the direction of the Government or changing key policies.
:13:45. > :13:48.The reshuffle is always attempts at re-energised is an by the
:13:49. > :13:53.Government, if such a word exists. Just a bit of energy and a bit of
:13:53. > :13:57.change of faces. New faces on the television. The messages. That is
:13:57. > :14:01.what it is all about. The David that David Cameron has is that he
:14:01. > :14:07.keeps it Chancellor in place who, if you like, has been hammered
:14:07. > :14:12.elsewhere by the papers and the media. We saw a bit of that in the
:14:12. > :14:16.Observer this weekend. That may happen anyway, but I think if the
:14:16. > :14:23.criticism gets too much, it is not a matter of David Cameron saying I
:14:23. > :14:28.have to keep him regardless, he may have no choice. By the other issue
:14:28. > :14:32.that is very much at the forefront of people's attention at the moment
:14:32. > :14:39.comes in the form of Boris Johnson. Can you see them ever being a
:14:39. > :14:45.leader of your party? Boris's... Massive talent. Massive
:14:45. > :14:50.talent. People react well to him. David Cameron will not be leader
:14:50. > :14:53.for ever and ever and ever. If he few sub-par as trying to get a seat
:14:53. > :14:59.so that he could try and challenge David Cameron as the leadership of
:14:59. > :15:04.the party, which that could people in the Conservative Party off?
:15:04. > :15:08.Do Conservative Party is a very strong party. There is it some of
:15:08. > :15:12.talent in our Westminster parties. Boris Johnson would after that
:15:12. > :15:20.talent. There are lots of ambitious people there who have the talent to
:15:20. > :15:26.lead the country. We're having this incredibly long
:15:26. > :15:31.campaign about the referendum on independence. What happens at
:15:31. > :15:36.Westminster presumably feeds into that? It could you explain it? We
:15:36. > :15:39.did make a difference whether people... Not so much which way
:15:39. > :15:43.they're going to vote, but whether they believe the Conservatives will
:15:43. > :15:47.form the next Government in Britain for that there will be a coalition
:15:47. > :15:50.or that Ed Miliband will be the next 10 Minister?
:15:50. > :15:54.In trees, there is a tendency to exaggerate the degree to which
:15:54. > :15:58.people attitudes towards independence for Scotland depend on
:15:58. > :16:03.who they think is going to be running the next administration.
:16:03. > :16:06.The truth is that his people in Scotland were so afraid and
:16:06. > :16:10.disliked the idea of any Conservative administration budding
:16:11. > :16:15.their country, even on the back of English votes, we would have seen
:16:15. > :16:19.support for independence increase quite significantly following the
:16:19. > :16:23.2010 general elections. That did not happen and the polls show that
:16:23. > :16:27.David Cameron's intervention in January of this year, which Alex
:16:27. > :16:32.Salmond confidently predicted Woods result in an increase in support
:16:32. > :16:36.for independence, has had no such result at all. Both coalition
:16:36. > :16:42.parties are now relatively weak and both are certainly weaken Scotland.
:16:42. > :16:47.The success of the no campaign and the leadership of the no campaign
:16:47. > :16:50.will be invested inside the Labour Party. And the tactics of the no
:16:50. > :16:54.campaign up primarily not going to be run by the coalition Government,
:16:54. > :17:04.but by the Labour Party. Now a quick look at tomorrow's
:17:04. > :17:41.
:17:41. > :17:44.That's all from me. If you want to see the programme again, it's on