0:00:03 > 0:00:06Tonight on Newsnight Scotland, Ian Davidson's Commons committee is
0:00:06 > 0:00:11adamant you just can't have a second question in an independence
0:00:11 > 0:00:16referendum but are they right? We will hear from the experts and the
0:00:16 > 0:00:19Electoral Commission on their role in this. Good evening. The House of
0:00:19 > 0:00:24Commons select committee on Scottish affairs under the
0:00:24 > 0:00:27chairmanship of Ian Davidson has issued a report, this time saying
0:00:27 > 0:00:30there's no sensible way to have a second question referring to more
0:00:30 > 0:00:37devolution in an independence referendum. The committee took
0:00:37 > 0:00:41evidence from a variety of belittled -- political scientist
0:00:41 > 0:00:49but first, Jamie McIvor reports. Someone who actually wants a second
0:00:50 > 0:00:53question? The SNP's position is it wants a straight yes/no question
0:00:53 > 0:00:57and so do all three of the main Unionist Party but the SNP also
0:00:57 > 0:01:07says that it acknowledges that there is strong support in Scotland
0:01:07 > 0:01:12
0:01:12 > 0:01:15for that second question on devo- The Scottish Council for Voluntary
0:01:15 > 0:01:23organisations and the S T U C both think there should be a debate
0:01:23 > 0:01:27about options for the constitution but the S T U C say that depends on
0:01:27 > 0:01:30things. We are are consulting on the sort of Scotland that they want
0:01:30 > 0:01:34to see with our members and that will include whether an enhanced
0:01:34 > 0:01:38devolution settlement, one were Scotland has significantly more
0:01:38 > 0:01:41powers, is a key part of that discussion.
0:01:41 > 0:01:44What we have made that decision and taken that view, it will be time to
0:01:44 > 0:01:49turn ourselves to the question of whether that question and how it
0:01:49 > 0:01:52should be put. That is not clear to us that the referendum easily
0:01:52 > 0:02:02avails itself to a third question that we certainly do not believe
0:02:02 > 0:02:04
0:02:04 > 0:02:09The Scottish affairs committee at Westminster believes that Scottish
0:02:09 > 0:02:11governments have got no mandate for a question about devo-max. Busy in
0:02:11 > 0:02:16view is that the Scottish people have voted for a separation
0:02:16 > 0:02:20referendum. They do not have an all-singing all purpose referendum
0:02:20 > 0:02:24mandate under anything to do with the constitution because then
0:02:24 > 0:02:32people of Scotland voted in the referendum in 1997 for Westminster
0:02:32 > 0:02:37to have responsibility for devolution and they also voted for
0:02:37 > 0:02:40Westminster to enhance devolution, not anything else. Some political
0:02:40 > 0:02:44scientists believe a second question would present significant
0:02:44 > 0:02:49difficulties. For instance, ensuring the result which was fair
0:02:50 > 0:02:53and decisive. Though others believe a second question could be achieved
0:02:54 > 0:02:58technically if there was the political desire to do so. Some in
0:02:58 > 0:03:03the Unionist parties believe that the SNP's edging towards a second
0:03:03 > 0:03:07question is an insurance policy. So if independence is defeated, the
0:03:07 > 0:03:13SNP might still win substantial new powers for Holyrood. On the other
0:03:13 > 0:03:21hand, some nationalists do not like the idea of a second question
0:03:21 > 0:03:25thinking that it will make the Independent less likely. But there
0:03:25 > 0:03:31are also people who believe in some form of devo-max and think that a
0:03:31 > 0:03:34vote in favour of it is the best way of securing action.
0:03:34 > 0:03:39The Electoral Commission is a public body charged with advising
0:03:39 > 0:03:43government on electoral matters. John McCormick is the commissioner
0:03:43 > 0:03:50for Scotland. And this curious if you have any role at all in all
0:03:50 > 0:03:54this? But the UK Government and the Scottish Government - and let it be
0:03:54 > 0:03:57known that they would like us to know that they want us involved in
0:03:57 > 0:04:03the referendum process once it begins. Both have made it very
0:04:03 > 0:04:07clear that with regard to the question, it has been made clear.
0:04:07 > 0:04:13No formal request because the timetable has not been reviewed yet.
0:04:13 > 0:04:16But in all this kerfuffle with slagging each other rough weather
0:04:16 > 0:04:19there are variants of the referendum and whether they are
0:04:19 > 0:04:24legal, you don't have any role in that? We presume that if a
0:04:24 > 0:04:29government asks us to advise them on a referendum, that their legal
0:04:29 > 0:04:33advice is sound. Right. It is up to them. You do not have a role on
0:04:34 > 0:04:39that? This thing on testing, this is a fairness of the question.
0:04:39 > 0:04:43yeah. Explain how that works. If the Scottish Government comes to
0:04:43 > 0:04:46you as as we know that Alex Salmond's Bay Ridge question is do
0:04:46 > 0:04:51you agree that Scotland should be an independent country? He would
0:04:51 > 0:04:55contest that question? We would tested. We did last year for the
0:04:55 > 0:04:59referendum on Wales, powers for the assembly and for the parliamentary
0:04:59 > 0:05:03voting system would be a be a referendum and we tested the
0:05:03 > 0:05:08questions given to us so we take a question from a government, we have
0:05:08 > 0:05:10it tested, the process takes about 12 weeks and then we have
0:05:11 > 0:05:14recommendations and it is a matter for Parliament to accept the
0:05:14 > 0:05:20recommendations or not. You have got an obligation to certain bodies
0:05:20 > 0:05:24to do that, have you? Under the Act set up with the Electoral
0:05:24 > 0:05:29Commission, we have a duty to run referendums which are set up an
0:05:29 > 0:05:38established by the UK Government, by the UK Parliament. That act out
0:05:38 > 0:05:43by us what we do in relation to the referendum. we run it and test the
0:05:43 > 0:05:49question. Two different ways that there may be a referendum with the
0:05:49 > 0:05:55Scottish Government and the Scottish Government were also
0:05:55 > 0:05:58thinking that under section 10 of the Act which could mean we advise
0:05:58 > 0:06:02them on a referendum. Both governments have said they would
0:06:02 > 0:06:05like us to be involved in testing the questions so we anticipate the
0:06:05 > 0:06:10question testing process will be the same, whatever the legal
0:06:10 > 0:06:14statutory basis. To make the simple and get this clear, what you seem
0:06:14 > 0:06:18to be saying is that in the eventuality that they cannot agree
0:06:18 > 0:06:21with each other, the two governments, and the Scottish
0:06:21 > 0:06:28Government decides to do a referendum on its own without the
0:06:28 > 0:06:34section 30 powers, you could still be involved? yes. To you could be
0:06:34 > 0:06:37still involved in helping on the referendum? Yes. The Scottish
0:06:37 > 0:06:41Government has made that clear in general terms so we have not had
0:06:42 > 0:06:45any specific recommendations but in general.
0:06:45 > 0:06:49What are the Scottish Government came to you and say we would quite
0:06:49 > 0:06:54like a two question referendum, here's what they are. Would you be
0:06:54 > 0:06:57obliged to test that? That is what we do. We take the questions from
0:06:57 > 0:07:04the Government questions from the Government and we test them.
0:07:04 > 0:07:08Whenever they give us legal tests. So we could have a situation where
0:07:08 > 0:07:15there is still no agreement in London and that in Edinburgh over
0:07:15 > 0:07:21whether a two question referendum is legal. Yes. But you could be
0:07:21 > 0:07:28testing the questions? The us. A how would you go about doing that?
0:07:28 > 0:07:31-- yes. How would you go about doing that. It may take longer if
0:07:31 > 0:07:35it is two questions but the established framework is eight
0:07:35 > 0:07:40weeks of testing with focus groups, One 2 One testing with it
0:07:40 > 0:07:43individual voters and that can be quite intense because you have got
0:07:43 > 0:07:46to make sure you have got a cross section of the public involved in
0:07:46 > 0:07:54that testing, qualitative testing so it is quite detailed and
0:07:54 > 0:08:04rigorous. He must test across the country, to gender, literacy levels
0:08:04 > 0:08:09
0:08:09 > 0:08:13and so on. Bolt of people -- lot of We were wanting a question that
0:08:13 > 0:08:19uses direct language and people can understand it. When people put
0:08:19 > 0:08:23their take in a box, or a cross in a box, they have a clear
0:08:23 > 0:08:26understanding of the outcome they are voting for so we must test the
0:08:26 > 0:08:30question with focus groups, qualitative leap with the voters to
0:08:30 > 0:08:35make sure that they understand the question. One week tested the
0:08:35 > 0:08:38question for the Welsh referendum last year, we discovered that
0:08:38 > 0:08:42report and recommendations and redress to the question which was
0:08:42 > 0:08:50accepted by the Government and the Assembly Government's and
0:08:50 > 0:08:55So they could reject your recommendations? Given that you
0:08:55 > 0:08:59have not been asked yet, you do not need to go all international
0:08:59 > 0:09:04diplomat on me, you have no view on whether they favoured question of
0:09:04 > 0:09:10Alex Salmond is a fair one or not? We do not have a predetermined view,
0:09:10 > 0:09:15you are not surprised I say that! You do not opine on the question,
0:09:15 > 0:09:19that devalues the currency. I am curious about your views on a two
0:09:19 > 0:09:24question referendum because you were quoted in the opinion poll
0:09:24 > 0:09:27produced by the House of Commons Scottish affairs committee, and I
0:09:27 > 0:09:32did not understand what they were saying. They quoted you're saying
0:09:32 > 0:09:36something along the lines that the problem was that there could be
0:09:36 > 0:09:41numerous out comes to a two question thing. What were you on
0:09:41 > 0:09:44about? We do not answer hypothetical questions. We were
0:09:45 > 0:09:49asked a range of questions in the committee which were hypothetical.
0:09:49 > 0:09:52We take the questions and say you cannot presume if there a two
0:09:52 > 0:09:56question that there are only two possible outcomes. You must work
0:09:56 > 0:10:00out because on the basis on the number of outcomes and designate
0:10:00 > 0:10:04the league campaign organisations for the referendums witches and the
0:10:04 > 0:10:09as the Commission does, but they are more complicated. We must not
0:10:09 > 0:10:14presume until we see a question and tested that there are only two. We
0:10:14 > 0:10:17do not prejudge. But ours is an evidence-based process and we go
0:10:17 > 0:10:21with impartiality and tested and then we discover how many outcomes
0:10:21 > 0:10:24there are, what people begin to the question and what the get the
0:10:24 > 0:10:31question to mean and that is why the questioning is rigorous and
0:10:31 > 0:10:35takes eight weeks. Could a comeback in theory and say... Go to come
0:10:35 > 0:10:39back in theory and say a two question format of a referendum
0:10:39 > 0:10:44seems to work, we have tested it and people are clear and you get an
0:10:44 > 0:10:49answer which can be relied upon. Or could you come back and say that is
0:10:49 > 0:10:52a bad idea, it does not work we should think of something else?
0:10:52 > 0:10:57I'd rather as a possible but there is no predetermined out, that is
0:10:57 > 0:11:01why testing is so important and that is why this is a decision for
0:11:01 > 0:11:05Parliament. In last year's referendum, we came up with three
0:11:05 > 0:11:09redrafted questions and a big bases as to what we thought there could
0:11:09 > 0:11:19be changed and then suggested an alternative and both of those cases,
0:11:19 > 0:11:20
0:11:20 > 0:11:25The Commons Scottish Affairs Committee took some evidence from
0:11:25 > 0:11:31leading political scientists in academia. Here is a flavour of how
0:11:31 > 0:11:37difficult it is to pin down the idea.
0:11:37 > 0:11:42It would be very arts, in an instrument designed to discover
0:11:42 > 0:11:46what Scottish people think, to exclude the option that they most
0:11:46 > 0:11:51favour. What we are now coming to is an
0:11:51 > 0:11:55understanding that as the terms of this potential referendum are being
0:11:55 > 0:12:00redefined a week to week and day today by the Scottish Government,
0:12:00 > 0:12:06and I do not blame them for that, there will be an element of pic in
0:12:06 > 0:12:11a poke. We know what's known means that we
0:12:11 > 0:12:15are not quite sure what Yes means. If you were to have a post
0:12:15 > 0:12:20legislative referendum, it is conceivable you could get a Yes
0:12:20 > 0:12:24majority the first time around and say no majority the second time
0:12:24 > 0:12:29around. We first of all have a be straight,
0:12:29 > 0:12:35clear question that everybody seems to want. That is do you want
0:12:35 > 0:12:40Scotland to be independent or not, yes or no? Beat -- then you can
0:12:40 > 0:12:44then have a question which says if Scotland remains part of the United
0:12:44 > 0:12:49Kingdom, see you want to have devolution Macs or have the status
0:12:49 > 0:12:58quo? I am joined now by Professor John
0:12:58 > 0:13:02Curtice and Professor Jim Gallagher. Jim Gallagher was secretary of the
0:13:02 > 0:13:07Calman Commission and wants us to stress that he is not here to pay
0:13:07 > 0:13:12speak on behalf of the committee but as an expert.
0:13:12 > 0:13:18Do you think you can have a three option referendum?
0:13:18 > 0:13:21It does provide severe obstacles. First of all, there has to be an
0:13:21 > 0:13:26alternative. It has to be a proposition that would work if it
0:13:26 > 0:13:32was voted for and then you have to go over this technical difficulty
0:13:32 > 0:13:35of how do you decide how to add up the results in a three question
0:13:35 > 0:13:40referendum. You are a bit more pro it?
0:13:40 > 0:13:43Yes, there is no doubt that there are technical issues about
0:13:43 > 0:13:49conducting a two-question referendum or choosing between
0:13:49 > 0:13:54three options. I think one has to balance those risks against what we
0:13:54 > 0:14:00might consider the purpose of the referendum. I would argue that an
0:14:00 > 0:14:03ideal outcome from this referendum is the week to reach a point where
0:14:03 > 0:14:07we resolve Scotland's constitutional status for the
0:14:07 > 0:14:12foreseeable future. If we simply have a referendum which is
0:14:12 > 0:14:16independence verses the status quo, that referendum will fell to
0:14:16 > 0:14:21resolve the issue because it looks as though the potential. A
0:14:21 > 0:14:27consensus around which we might be up to build a majority in Scotland
0:14:27 > 0:14:31is not either of those options but devolution Max. We could have the
0:14:31 > 0:14:37referendum and a decisive result but failed to resolve the issue.
0:14:37 > 0:14:43We will come along to the more substantial issues in a moment but
0:14:43 > 0:14:50on that technical point, let me be read to use John Curtice's proposal.
0:14:50 > 0:14:54You say, to you prefer independence are remaining in the UK it? That is
0:14:54 > 0:14:59the first question. This Scotland remains in the UK, to you prefer
0:14:59 > 0:15:04the status quo or more devolution? What is wrong with that?
0:15:04 > 0:15:13Are the ways of doing it, that is just about the second best option.
0:15:13 > 0:15:17I take that as high praise! It is high praise. People have
0:15:17 > 0:15:22different orders of preference. To do the arithmetic, that there are
0:15:22 > 0:15:27six ways you could put that in order. People might want devolution
0:15:27 > 0:15:32first, independence first, and so on. If you only have two questions,
0:15:32 > 0:15:40what ever the words are, there are only for possible set of answers.
0:15:40 > 0:15:46You cannot match everybody's answer. Anticipating what John Curtice
0:15:46 > 0:15:52might say, given that we sort of note that the middle option might
0:15:52 > 0:15:54be preferred. I do not think you should deny a
0:15:54 > 0:15:59correction Mac design a referendum assuming you know what the answer
0:15:59 > 0:16:04will be. The truth is my proposal was
0:16:04 > 0:16:08something of a compromise. In an ideal fashion you would ask people
0:16:08 > 0:16:12to put the three options in order of preference and counts it in such
0:16:12 > 0:16:18a way to identify whether any one of those options is clearly
0:16:18 > 0:16:23preferable to the other two. However, I was saying to take in
0:16:23 > 0:16:28the political reality. One consensus on which both Unionists
0:16:28 > 0:16:32and nationalists appear to agree is that they want a clear and decisive
0:16:32 > 0:16:38question on independence. We can have that. Let us make it the first
0:16:38 > 0:16:42question on the ballot paper. Given that there are apparently
0:16:42 > 0:16:46substantial demands for more devolution, let us have a second
0:16:46 > 0:16:51question on the ballot paper. The interesting question about this
0:16:51 > 0:16:55debate, had this to nobody had suggested that we should simply
0:16:55 > 0:17:01have a second question on the ballot paper about the devilish and
0:17:01 > 0:17:07Max verses the status quo. It is informed about understandings on
0:17:07 > 0:17:11the nature of public opinion and is what both sides say they want. We
0:17:11 > 0:17:17can have that clear and decisive vote on independence and, at the
0:17:17 > 0:17:22same time, had that second question. The two things are not necessarily
0:17:22 > 0:17:28contradictory. What about the more fundamental
0:17:29 > 0:17:33point that Ian Davidson's report posits. You can only have more
0:17:33 > 0:17:37devolution of someone defines what more devolution is?
0:17:37 > 0:17:42That is clear. You cannot say you would like a boat on two or three
0:17:42 > 0:17:46words that someone has put together. There is a clear, concrete
0:17:46 > 0:17:50proposition that is in his Commons acts but nobody seems to be
0:17:50 > 0:17:55suggesting we vote on at. Be on that there is no proposition are
0:17:55 > 0:17:59told. Nobody knows what it is and nobody knows whose job it is to put
0:17:59 > 0:18:05it together. What would you say to that?
0:18:05 > 0:18:10If we are going to have a sensible referendum on a scheme of Mori for
0:18:10 > 0:18:15-- of more devolution, we need a scheme that his words out in terms
0:18:15 > 0:18:19of principles. We do not need to have every I tarted of tea crossbow
0:18:19 > 0:18:24we need something at least as detailed as was put forward to the
0:18:24 > 0:18:28Scottish electorate in 1997 and as detailed as what the SNP put
0:18:28 > 0:18:33together in terms of independence. He would do that?
0:18:33 > 0:18:41And ideally it would come from one of the two governments or from
0:18:41 > 0:18:47Scottish Civic Society. The Institute for Public Policy
0:18:47 > 0:18:52Research is doing some work on this. It do you think the Devo Plus
0:18:52 > 0:18:55proposals could do that? How to see you get agreement that that is the
0:18:55 > 0:18:59form of devolution that everyone wants?
0:18:59 > 0:19:04The answer is only through a process of debate and discussion.
0:19:04 > 0:19:07Last time round so that debate took place within the form of a
0:19:07 > 0:19:13constitutional convention. Some sort of or delight that may have to
0:19:13 > 0:19:19be developed. Is there a way to give this efficient underpinning so
0:19:19 > 0:19:23we can have a sensible vote on its? Is as sensible?
0:19:23 > 0:19:28What John did not answer there is that if you have a proposal on
0:19:28 > 0:19:34devolution, it is not a unilateral Scottish one.
0:19:34 > 0:19:38That was going to be my second question. It is up to people in
0:19:38 > 0:19:41Scotland to decide whether or not they want to be independent but is
0:19:41 > 0:19:46it up to people in Scotland to decide whether they want more
0:19:46 > 0:19:49devolution? You cannot unilaterally vote on
0:19:49 > 0:19:54more devolution because it is an agreed deal between Scotland and
0:19:54 > 0:19:59the rest of the UK. So you think it would have to be in
0:19:59 > 0:20:05a party manifesto, for example, in a UK general election?
0:20:05 > 0:20:09The test is that if the people vote for it, this hypothetical scheme of
0:20:09 > 0:20:14more devolution, will they get it? They will only get it if the UK is
0:20:14 > 0:20:18willing to legislate for it. If that is the principal problem
0:20:18 > 0:20:28with the second question, it should say to people that they promise
0:20:28 > 0:20:29
0:20:29 > 0:20:33that if Scotland votes for this we will hold a referendum on Mort
0:20:33 > 0:20:37evolution. -- more devolution. That is not the situation that has been
0:20:37 > 0:20:47put forward. Thank you. Let us look at
0:20:47 > 0:20:48
0:20:48 > 0:20:55A picture of the Duke of Edinburgh on the cover of The Scotsman. The
0:20:55 > 0:20:59Daily Mail, a �35,000 cap on care bills promised by the Prime
0:20:59 > 0:21:03Minister. The career says that staff hit out at police chief. This
0:21:03 > 0:21:13is about the Tayside straight police board. I will be back
0:21:13 > 0:21:16
0:21:16 > 0:21:21Good evening. We have had some thoroughly miserable weather
0:21:21 > 0:21:26through Wednesday. That now lies to the north of Scotland and it will
0:21:26 > 0:21:31be a blustery day on Thursday. Sunshine and showers and quieter
0:21:31 > 0:21:34for some areas with spells of dry and bright weather in between.
0:21:34 > 0:21:39Temperatures again into the low twenties so we're keeping the
0:21:39 > 0:21:44humidity tonight and into tomorrow. In those dry spells temperatures
0:21:44 > 0:21:48will hit the mid- twenties but on the whole they are showers will be
0:21:48 > 0:21:53coming through quite frequently went longer spells of rain
0:21:53 > 0:21:59returning to Northern Ireland's and pushing Wales by the end of the day.
0:21:59 > 0:22:05There are further warnings about rain by the end of the day. Some
0:22:05 > 0:22:08heavy showers around us just about everywhere with hail and thunder.
0:22:08 > 0:22:12With the sunshine in between some pleasant spells as well but more
0:22:12 > 0:22:18rain for the Northern Isles. You can see the showery weather for
0:22:18 > 0:22:23Thursday overtaken by wetter weather, especially for the West
0:22:23 > 0:22:29and not, by Friday. There will be rain for a time Eid in the south-
0:22:29 > 0:22:35east on Friday. 25 Celsius the high in London. A lot of wet weather in