:00:15. > :00:19.finally be about to fulfil its Tonight on Newsnight Scotland, free
:00:19. > :00:22.personal care for the elderly costs are spiralling upwards. Should we
:00:22. > :00:25.take a leaf out of the Dilnot Commission and consider means
:00:25. > :00:30.testing. We ask the Deputy Prime Minister if the Scottish Secretary
:00:30. > :00:33.will survive the reshuffle? Good evening. How affordable is the
:00:33. > :00:36.flagship policy of free personal care for the elderly? New figures
:00:36. > :00:40.published today by the Scottish Government show the cost of
:00:40. > :00:46.personal care has more than doubled in the past seven years. So, time
:00:46. > :00:49.for a rethink? We're all at different stages in
:00:49. > :00:53.life, one thing unites us whatever our age - we're all getting older.
:00:53. > :00:58.We're all living longer, that's the good news. The difficult bit is
:00:58. > :01:03.what happens when we get old and more infirm. Who's going to pay for
:01:03. > :01:07.it and how much twil cost? Free personal care for the elderly
:01:07. > :01:13.remains a defining policy of post- devolution Scotland introduced by
:01:13. > :01:20.the Labour -Lib Dem coalition introduced by Henry McLeish. No ifs,
:01:20. > :01:23.buts or maybes, full implementation and fully funded. But the cost of
:01:23. > :01:30.helping people with personal care, such as washing and dressing in
:01:30. > :01:36.their own homes, has increased from �133 million in 2003 to �342
:01:36. > :01:41.million in 2010/11. To say the demographic and financial
:01:41. > :01:45.implications of the policy are challenging, is an understatement.
:01:45. > :01:50.In evidence to the Scottish Parliament, the association of
:01:50. > :01:54.directors of social work said the current bill of around �1.3 billion
:01:54. > :01:59.a year for all social care, of which free personal care is a part,
:01:59. > :02:04.would rise to �2.7 billion by 2035. That doesn't take inflation into
:02:04. > :02:07.account. In England, the Dilnot Commission into social care has
:02:08. > :02:13.recommended that people who can should contribute to their care, up
:02:13. > :02:17.to a capped maximum of �35,000. three major political parties are
:02:18. > :02:21.behind these reforms. All of the major stake holder groups, the
:02:22. > :02:25.population as a whole, a recent poll found the huge bulk of the
:02:25. > :02:28.population thinks this is the way forward. Here the directors of
:02:28. > :02:33.social work think the time has come for a review of free personal care
:02:33. > :02:36.in Scotland and that review should consider means testing. I think
:02:36. > :02:40.that's probably quite a responsible policy because it means that those
:02:40. > :02:44.who can afford to do so then contribute to the wider costs,
:02:44. > :02:48.which ultimately help those in most need and those that are most
:02:48. > :02:51.improfferished. Not everyone sees things that way. Age UK, which
:02:51. > :02:56.represents elderly people, points out that while free personal care
:02:56. > :03:01.costs around �5,000 a year per person, it costs around �25,000 for
:03:01. > :03:06.someone to stay in a care home. What is surprising is that people
:03:06. > :03:11.want to keep sort of hammering free personal care and saying it's
:03:11. > :03:16.unsustainable, when it is one of the few areas where we're actually
:03:16. > :03:20.saving money. It's a preventative spend and it works. So the future
:03:20. > :03:23.of free personal care is an especially difficult political
:03:23. > :03:29.issue in times of austerity, but for the moment, the SNP say it's
:03:29. > :03:32.staying. If we are to meet the demographic challenge we have in
:03:32. > :03:35.Scotland with an ageing population, we have to provide resource to meet
:03:35. > :03:39.those needs. We're committed to continuing with free personal care
:03:39. > :03:43.for older people in Scotland. Many thousands of older people in
:03:43. > :03:48.Scotland are benefiting from that. It carries broad political support
:03:48. > :03:51.in Scotland as well. Others such as the Scottish Conservatives warn
:03:51. > :03:55.that a responsible government in Scotland can't ignore the facts,
:03:55. > :04:05.kidding everyone that everything is affordable. Clearly, the political
:04:05. > :04:08.temperature on this issue is rising. We're joined now by Professor of
:04:08. > :04:13.economics at Strathclyde University, Robert Wright. First of all, we
:04:13. > :04:18.heard David there allude to the scale of the demographic changes
:04:18. > :04:22.which will be undertaken in Scotland. Give us an indication of
:04:22. > :04:26.just how quickly increasing is the ageing population? Clearly the
:04:26. > :04:31.population of Scotland is ageing rapidly. The number of people in
:04:31. > :04:35.the 65 and over age group, over 85 is going to increase dramatically
:04:35. > :04:39.in the future. This is pretty certain. That implies there will be
:04:39. > :04:44.more people eligible for free personal care in its current
:04:44. > :04:49.configuration. We see take-up rates increasing. It's hardly surprising
:04:49. > :04:53.that the forecast is that this will be a larger amount of money that we
:04:54. > :04:57.have to come up with. If you're the director of social work you look at
:04:57. > :05:01.the budget. You see this is increasing speedily and it's going
:05:01. > :05:05.to continue to akselbrait. Therefore, you think, is this
:05:05. > :05:09.affordable? When you see big numbers increasing, you always ask
:05:09. > :05:15.questions, if it's affordable or not. That's not the issue. I think
:05:15. > :05:18.the issue was mentioned in the film. You have to think about the
:05:18. > :05:23.alternative. Let's say we get rid of free personal care for the
:05:23. > :05:26.elderly. You will get a big increase in people going into
:05:26. > :05:30.institutional care, which is much more expensive. Basically what free
:05:30. > :05:34.personal care does, one of the outcomes, is it allows people who
:05:34. > :05:37.want to live in their home to stay in their home longer. This is
:05:37. > :05:40.cheaper. The ageing population process will continue for another
:05:40. > :05:44.four or five decades. It's a longer term problem. You have to think
:05:44. > :05:49.about this longer period of time. It's my view, and many people's
:05:49. > :05:52.view, that over this period, when we're expected to accommodate the
:05:52. > :05:57.ageing population, policies like free care for the elderly are going
:05:57. > :06:00.to be cheaper. They're going to have to be paid for in some way.
:06:00. > :06:08.What about the idea that's floated by the Dilnot Commission, which is
:06:08. > :06:13.let's have a cap of �35,000, so we means test the benefit so those who
:06:13. > :06:17.can afford to pay should pay. should be the situation. The Dilnot
:06:17. > :06:21.has a number of �35,000, that's just a number. The idea that people
:06:21. > :06:25.who can afford to contribute to their care should be expected to do
:06:26. > :06:29.so is just how we manage it and how much we are expecting people to pay.
:06:29. > :06:33.Is that an economic decision or political decision? It's both. If
:06:33. > :06:38.you're means testing you have to have a bureaucracy to carry out the
:06:38. > :06:41.means testing and that is not cheap. We don't really have that. Often
:06:41. > :06:48.these processes, organisations are very inefficient and there's cost
:06:48. > :06:51.to that. I think the politics of this is delicate because the ageing
:06:51. > :06:54.population is also a population that has clear voting
:06:54. > :06:58.responsibilities and rights. Anybody that tries to remove free
:06:58. > :07:04.care for the elderly or water it down will pay serious punishment at
:07:04. > :07:08.the ballot box. It's a policy that's popular because I think in
:07:08. > :07:11.the longer run it prove to be cheaper. Plus it's what people want.
:07:11. > :07:14.We can't forget that politicians at least try to provide us with things
:07:14. > :07:19.that they want. People tell us that they would like to stay in their
:07:19. > :07:23.homes as long as possible. This allows that. It's tough. Is this
:07:23. > :07:28.kind of benefit fair to those generations who are say 18 years
:07:28. > :07:31.old just now, you're going to have to spend your working life helping
:07:31. > :07:36.to pay for these benefits. By the time you get round to being old
:07:36. > :07:40.enough they won't be available. That's the problem with an ageing
:07:40. > :07:44.population. This idea of it's not fair, younger generations pay for
:07:44. > :07:51.older generations. I'm afraid that is just the way it is. That can't
:07:51. > :07:55.be changed. The alternative is to remove these programme, remove, pay
:07:55. > :07:58.less money to accommodating the ageing population and have them
:07:58. > :08:02.experience a lower standard of living. This is the alternative.
:08:02. > :08:06.No-one is talking about that. Accommodating an ageing population
:08:06. > :08:09.is going to be expensive no matter how you do it. I think a policy
:08:09. > :08:14.like free personal care for the elderly and if you want to means
:08:14. > :08:19.test at the upper end, you know, it's a winner. Why do you think
:08:19. > :08:24.this is something which often leads to controversy? What are the
:08:24. > :08:31.arguments put forward by proponents of it is you should treat older
:08:31. > :08:37.people who need care the way you treat somebody who arrives at A&E,
:08:37. > :08:43.why is this different? Because of the ageing population. It's the
:08:43. > :08:48.scale of the problem that makes it quite important. It's a huge issue.
:08:48. > :08:51.Do you think somebody living here in Scotland that you will benefit
:08:51. > :08:55.from free personal care? I would like to see it, maybe not free
:08:55. > :09:05.personal care, but the fact that the Government subsidises personal
:09:05. > :09:09.
:09:09. > :09:13.care services and provides those When this was first introduced, it
:09:13. > :09:18.was hailed as Scotland leading the way in many aspects of this policy,
:09:18. > :09:23.how do other countries deal with this? Most other high-income
:09:23. > :09:27.countries have some form of what they call home help, which is what
:09:27. > :09:32.the personal care actually is. It is just a matter of how they
:09:32. > :09:38.finance it. Mostly they expect an individual to make some kind of
:09:38. > :09:42.contribution to that? If they can. But they have clear rules on who
:09:42. > :09:47.can and who cannot because in many countries have a longer history of
:09:47. > :09:50.means testing welfare than Scotland or the United Kingdom. The 35,000
:09:50. > :09:53.figure which has been plucked out of the air as far as you're
:09:53. > :09:59.concerned, what should be a suitable means testing figure in
:09:59. > :10:04.Scotland? I really don't know, because basically what you have in
:10:04. > :10:10.Scotland is you have a major policy, you have a small number of
:10:10. > :10:14.researchers working on this. Much of the work, I think, centres
:10:14. > :10:17.around what the Government is doing and is not very illuminating. We do
:10:18. > :10:22.not really understand these questions as well as we should. The
:10:22. > :10:25.challenge will be to provide the sites which will allow us to inform
:10:25. > :10:29.judgement and changes to the law. The Liberal Democrat leader Nick
:10:29. > :10:33.Clegg has returned from his summer holiday and gone straight on his
:10:33. > :10:39.travels again. He was in Jes Fry in the Scottish Borders visiting a
:10:39. > :10:44.coat hanger factory, hot on the heels of recent figures showing the
:10:44. > :10:45.Treasury borrowing more than their spending, I asked the Deputy Prime
:10:46. > :10:50.Minister what strategy the Government has for cooling the
:10:50. > :10:54.economy. When asked people what they wanted most from Government,
:10:54. > :11:01.their simple request was for greater certainty when the status
:11:01. > :11:06.of Scotland within the next kingdom, which they set cast a shadow of
:11:06. > :11:10.doubt about the future of companies like this. And also about the
:11:10. > :11:15.future of the Eurozone. Like all businesses, it is a certainty which
:11:15. > :11:20.is such a powerful ingredient for inspiring that all important thing,
:11:21. > :11:25.confidence. Certainty comes in many shapes and sizes and I certainly
:11:26. > :11:31.think in Scotland, having certainty about the future of Scotland is one
:11:31. > :11:33.of the biggest boost speed can go to companies like this. We're in a
:11:33. > :11:39.double-dip recession, did you expect this two-and-a-half years
:11:39. > :11:44.into Government? I do not think anyone could say hand on heart that
:11:44. > :11:49.they could have foreseen what has happened to the economy in the last
:11:49. > :11:53.two-and-a-half years. Clearly, to they have years ago, everyone hoped
:11:53. > :11:56.that the shot that had been suffered duty grass of the banking
:11:56. > :12:03.system was one be could recover from relatively quickly, but that
:12:03. > :12:08.has not happened. We have been try to deal with the black hole in our
:12:08. > :12:12.public finances but it will take us longer to do that. There are many
:12:12. > :12:16.debates on how you can restore a sense of confidence and growth,
:12:16. > :12:21.some people large one way and see it is all about one runway any
:12:21. > :12:25.particular airport, others say that a little of borrowing will do the
:12:25. > :12:30.trick, my own opinion is that the key ingredients are sorting out the
:12:30. > :12:39.banks, people, getting more money into people's pockets, which is why
:12:39. > :12:45.the up listing personal allowance is so important. As his lauding
:12:45. > :12:49.inflation. Also, infrastructure. Investing in green Infrastructure
:12:49. > :12:52.and energy infrastructure and backing. If you get banks, people
:12:52. > :12:58.and infrastructure correct, that is an important recipe for the British
:12:58. > :13:02.economy. All very good, but none of it is working. That is not fair.
:13:02. > :13:08.We're any double-dip recession. There are certain things that our
:13:08. > :13:12.economic fact, that politicians somehow it airbrush out of the
:13:12. > :13:16.equation. These Eurozone Castile shadow of uncertainty not just on
:13:16. > :13:22.the British economy but on the whole global economy. Many people
:13:22. > :13:26.have only come recently to fully appreciate the damage that was done
:13:26. > :13:34.back in 2008 when there was this cardiac arrest in the banking
:13:34. > :13:38.system. The latest Obi are estimate are that he British economy will be
:13:38. > :13:44.a full 11% smaller come 2016, and it would have been if that shop had
:13:44. > :13:47.not happened in 2008. The damage done to the basic transmission
:13:47. > :13:52.mechanism in the British economy is deeper than people realise and it
:13:52. > :13:56.will take longer to recover from, but he will recover from it at heel.
:13:56. > :13:59.They have spoken of uncertainty around the independence referendum,
:13:59. > :14:04.as you Government struck a deal with Alex Salmond's Government on
:14:04. > :14:09.how many questions there will be? Know, there is no date in the diary
:14:09. > :14:15.for a meeting between Michael Moore, the Secretary of State for Scotland,
:14:15. > :14:18.and Alex Salmond, the First Minister. We in the British
:14:18. > :14:22.Government recognised that the SNP Government have every right, they
:14:22. > :14:26.have a powerful and democratic mandate, to hold the referendum. We
:14:26. > :14:29.want to work with them to facilitate this. We believe it
:14:29. > :14:34.would be better if the referendum was held sooner rather than later
:14:34. > :14:38.in order to dispel uncertainty, we also believe it would be better if
:14:38. > :14:45.it was a simple single question that was easy to understand and
:14:45. > :14:50.road receive a E or any answer from the Scottish people. We would hope
:14:50. > :14:53.to, instead of jockeying around a process points, to settle on the
:14:53. > :14:58.steep hills and have a debate on the future of the United Kingdom
:14:58. > :15:02.and Scotland's place in it. We're told that the Prime Minister is
:15:02. > :15:06.relaxed about the autumn 2014 timetable, Hagia relaxed about it?
:15:07. > :15:10.We believe it would be better if it was held sooner rather than later,
:15:10. > :15:15.but at the end of the day we will not make a date in the diary for
:15:15. > :15:20.something that will die in the dictionary. What about a vote for
:15:20. > :15:23.16 and 17-year-old? We believe there should be a consistent
:15:23. > :15:27.approach for the age where people participate in elections, but for
:15:27. > :15:32.us the most important thing is that there is a clear it legally binding
:15:32. > :15:36.and simple toys put before the British people, the Scottish people.
:15:36. > :15:39.We believe a series of old will choice questions will be confusing
:15:39. > :15:47.and would play cat-and-mouse with the Scottish people. We need
:15:47. > :15:51.clarity. So what's for 16 a 17- year-old is up for grabs? We want
:15:51. > :15:55.to engage with the Scottish Government, or we want to work with
:15:55. > :16:00.them to make it possible for them to fulfil their democratic right to
:16:00. > :16:04.hold a referendum. What I find curious is that you have the SNP
:16:04. > :16:07.talking about independence for 70 or 80 years, now it does not seem
:16:07. > :16:12.to know what it means by independents, chopping and changing
:16:12. > :16:16.what it means for the currency and the monarchy and NATO and so on,
:16:16. > :16:20.and now it is extremely reluctant to finalise the details for
:16:20. > :16:23.something that it has said for several decades that it wants.
:16:23. > :16:27.Salmond insists on having a question on more powers for the
:16:27. > :16:32.Scottish Parliament, what will you Government to? Hold their own
:16:32. > :16:38.independence referendum? We want to work co-operatively with Alex
:16:38. > :16:44.Salmond and his administration to facilitate a referendum. You are
:16:44. > :16:48.inviting me to speculate, what if, what if. To be fair, the Scottish
:16:48. > :16:51.Government has said they are open to the possibility of the two-
:16:51. > :16:55.question referendum, you have said clearly that he won the one
:16:55. > :17:00.question referendum, that is a legitimate public debate. That is
:17:00. > :17:03.not true. The SNP's and formal commitment is to one question.
:17:03. > :17:06.Salmond has made it clear he will consider a second question. So
:17:06. > :17:10.given the fact that the Scottish Government is considering a second
:17:10. > :17:16.question and you do not want Waugh, if he forces the issue to have two
:17:16. > :17:19.questions on the ballot paper, will you in return, despite
:17:19. > :17:23.protestations... I am not really interested in hypothetical
:17:23. > :17:27.questions on the back of meetings that have not taken place, what we
:17:27. > :17:31.believe is best for the Scottish people and for the Scottish nation
:17:31. > :17:35.is to put a single question as soon as possible in a clear and simple
:17:35. > :17:40.way before the Scottish people. Alex Salmond and his administration
:17:40. > :17:44.have every right to do so. We have said very clearly, as have many
:17:44. > :17:48.people, that it is best done through a single question. We
:17:48. > :17:51.cannot make progress on that until there is a date in the diary for a
:17:51. > :17:55.meeting between Mick Moore and Alex Salmond. You could end the
:17:55. > :17:59.speculation by saying that the UK Government's policy is not to hold
:17:59. > :18:01.an independent referendum. It is better issue get picked were at
:18:01. > :18:04.Alex Salmond talking to each other rather than you and I second
:18:04. > :18:09.something that they should settle at a meeting that has not yet taken
:18:09. > :18:12.place. Let's have was meeting cent get a date in the diary. We have
:18:12. > :18:18.been clear about her priorities, most objective observers and the
:18:18. > :18:21.SNP believes that the question is as important as the future of
:18:21. > :18:27.Scotland in the United Kingdom is best settled but a straightforward
:18:27. > :18:30.yes or no response, a step forward simple single question. Mick Moore
:18:30. > :18:36.has been doing much to the negotiations for you, will he
:18:36. > :18:42.survive the reshuffle? composition of the Government will
:18:42. > :18:46.be made obvious soon enough, when the reshuffle was announced. Let me
:18:46. > :18:50.say that I have been immensely impressed with the way in which
:18:50. > :18:54.Mike has patiently and professionally and consistently
:18:54. > :18:57.dealt with the endless game-playing from Alex Salmond, has been
:18:57. > :19:01.consistent and professional in saying that what we must denial is
:19:02. > :19:04.facilitate the referendum which the SNP has every right to hold an be
:19:04. > :19:09.clear about the manner in which we think that referendum should be
:19:09. > :19:12.held. I think that kind of consistency and patience and
:19:12. > :19:18.professionalism that something I Fahy and something that many people
:19:18. > :19:22.in Scotland fuggy as well. A quick look at tomorrow's papers,
:19:22. > :19:25.starting with the Scotsman which leads with calls for reforms as the
:19:25. > :19:31.cost of elderly care soaring, as we discussed earlier.