:00:08. > :00:11.deny Ron Dearing. Tonight on Newsnight Scotland:
:00:11. > :00:16.Is the slump in the housing market now a problem for society and not
:00:16. > :00:25.just the economy? What's your house for? A place to call home or an
:00:25. > :00:30.And how good was that? Andy Murray crowns a fantastic few months for
:00:30. > :00:33.Scottish sport. But how long can we keep on feeling good? Well, maybe
:00:33. > :00:35.the football team's done for it already.
:00:35. > :00:38.First, a senior spokesman for the European Commission has said that
:00:38. > :00:43.if part of an EU member state became independent, it wouldn't
:00:43. > :00:44.automatically remain a member of the European Union. Olivier Bailly
:00:45. > :00:50.was answering questions in Strasbourg about independence
:00:50. > :00:52.demonstrations held in Catalonia in Spain today. He appeared to suggest
:00:52. > :01:02.that an independent Scotland would have "to make a request for
:01:02. > :01:08.
:01:08. > :01:15.accession." Here's what he had to say.
:01:15. > :01:24.There's no provision regarding aid region of a member state. If one
:01:24. > :01:29.region of any member state would want in the future to make a
:01:30. > :01:38.separation for its member states and to apply to EU membership, we
:01:38. > :01:43.will then have to be dealt with its by international law.
:01:43. > :01:50.What it means if there is a referendum in Scotland of Catalonia
:01:50. > :01:55.the day after this region, is it inside or outside? Or are they know
:01:55. > :01:58.where? All that is a speculative scenario.
:01:58. > :02:03.We get regular questions on the different speculations with
:02:03. > :02:08.different regions in Europe. If you want to apply for EU membership,
:02:08. > :02:14.this will have to be done according to the treaties and the provision
:02:14. > :02:18.regarding accession. So they are two different steps. There's
:02:18. > :02:26.accession and the request for accession to EU member state. In
:02:26. > :02:30.the meantime, this new treaty is not part of the EU, since it has to
:02:30. > :02:32.make a request for accession. That was Olivier Bailly, a European
:02:32. > :02:34.Commission spokesman responding earlier today in Strasbourg to
:02:34. > :02:37.questions about the mechanics of how an independent Scotland,
:02:37. > :02:39.Catalonia or somewhere else inside the EU might join the club. The
:02:39. > :02:48.BBC's political correspondent Niall O'Gallagher broke the story and
:02:48. > :02:50.joins us now. The point is that this is not what
:02:50. > :02:55.the Scottish government has been saying.
:02:55. > :02:59.It is still what they are not saying tonight. The argument has
:02:59. > :03:03.been that Scotland, in the event of a Yes vote for independence,
:03:03. > :03:09.remains within the European Union. Scotland is already part of the EU,
:03:09. > :03:14.and they are saying that they would stay inside the European Union of
:03:14. > :03:19.Scotland voted for independence. But that is clearly an issue at
:03:19. > :03:24.odds with what this man has been saying today. The questions were
:03:24. > :03:31.raised on the day when Catalonia celebrated their national day, and
:03:31. > :03:38.there was a big demonstration there. This was the stronger statement yet
:03:38. > :03:41.on this issue. Yes, but also the president spoke
:03:41. > :03:48.about this last week and was more mealy mouthed.
:03:48. > :03:52.In May the point that Scotland's future would have to be negotiated.
:03:52. > :03:56.-- he made the point. But he was not specific on whether Scotland
:03:56. > :04:01.would be in or out at the start. This is not about whether Scotland
:04:01. > :04:05.would be allowed to be part of the EU. Instead, it is about how that
:04:05. > :04:10.might happen and what kind of conditions might be attached to it.
:04:10. > :04:14.It follows the controversial issue of legal advice this could his
:04:14. > :04:24.government has received or not deceived. There was a request
:04:24. > :04:27.
:04:27. > :04:37.resulting in them being asked to Who is this chap question mac he is
:04:37. > :04:39.
:04:39. > :04:47.a spokesman for the European Union on growth. He released a statement
:04:47. > :04:50.at the weekend. Why does this matter? It is partly about whether
:04:50. > :04:58.Scotland would be automatically part of the European Union, but
:04:58. > :05:01.there are other issues about conditions. It is the euro. The
:05:01. > :05:07.treaty makes it a condition for a new members to join the European
:05:07. > :05:13.Union, and that has not always happened. Sweden joined in 1995 and
:05:13. > :05:22.never joined the euro. The Scottish Government's preferred situation is
:05:23. > :05:25.that it does not arise, because they opted out. It clearly hits a
:05:25. > :05:30.nerve, because the Scottish Government made the point about the
:05:30. > :05:34.pound. That is correct, they give a cast-iron guarantee that Scotland
:05:34. > :05:39.would keep the pound after independence. That has been one of
:05:39. > :05:46.the massive issues in Parliament. Until now, the European Commission
:05:46. > :05:52.has kept above the fray. What is the point of order in your own
:05:52. > :05:56.home? Millions do, many want to join them but find it increasingly
:05:56. > :06:00.difficult. A new survey says the average Scot does not expect to be
:06:00. > :06:03.able to buy their own home until they are 40. The Scottish
:06:03. > :06:12.Government will be announcing a new scheme for first-time buyers to
:06:12. > :06:21.help boost the housing market. She came to power with a vision, it was
:06:21. > :06:27.not much aimed at Scotsman. But they love the bet about buying your
:06:28. > :06:36.own council house. I like this area are very much, the neighbours are
:06:36. > :06:40.respectful. In 1986, she came here to meet the young family. They were
:06:40. > :06:46.the one million family that bought their home. The policy transformed
:06:46. > :06:53.the housings market and society. Paul Warner should have risen from
:06:53. > :07:03.36% to 65%. -- hormone a shed. If you got on the ladder it seemed to
:07:03. > :07:05.
:07:05. > :07:11.go on forever. -- warning neurone I do not want there to be any doubt
:07:11. > :07:14.that I am extremely sorry. House prices have fallen by 11% across
:07:15. > :07:20.Scotland and that is not counting inflation. The market remains
:07:20. > :07:27.static, owners are not selling, and first-time buyers, even if they get
:07:27. > :07:33.credit, can save for the deposit for years. Is that bad state of
:07:33. > :07:41.affairs or is it normal? Has the private sector replaced social
:07:41. > :07:51.housing? What is posing for? Our roof over our heads or economic
:07:51. > :08:00.investment? Cannot be both? I am joined by Professor Douglas
:08:01. > :08:04.Robertson. Malcolm Cannon also joins me. I am curious about the
:08:04. > :08:10.social effects of the slump in the housing market. The people that
:08:10. > :08:14.would like to sell their house, that have withdrawn them from the
:08:14. > :08:23.market because they do not accept what they will get, what happens to
:08:23. > :08:29.them? Are there issues of mobility? They could rent a house out and
:08:29. > :08:35.read another house, we have seen a massive increase in renting, 30% of
:08:35. > :08:40.people under the age of 34 are renting privately. That is at
:08:40. > :08:49.transformation, incredible transformation. We're dealing with
:08:49. > :08:52.a very difficult -- different housing market, where 10% of the
:08:52. > :08:56.population in housing have increased. Most people would be
:08:56. > :09:01.shocked if they thought local authority housing was the same as
:09:01. > :09:07.the private sector. Owner- occupation is in decline.
:09:07. > :09:11.Presumably people will not sell but rent because they still believe the
:09:11. > :09:17.never-ending growth in house prices in the UK is simply having had
:09:17. > :09:23.temporary interruption and they can come back later? Most people
:09:23. > :09:30.assumed the post became worth more as opposed to the building society
:09:30. > :09:40.and mortgage industry creating the man so the prices increased. --
:09:40. > :09:50.creating demand. We lived with the delusion that they would never
:09:50. > :09:52.
:09:52. > :09:57.decrease. That illustrates the final points. Malcolm Cannon, what
:09:57. > :10:01.about first-time sellers? There was research done by Lloyds TSB
:10:01. > :10:07.recently which show that they need to pay more of a multiple of their
:10:07. > :10:11.salary to move up the ladder than first-time buyers to get onto it.
:10:11. > :10:20.Presumably what we thought of 10 years ago as a natural progression
:10:20. > :10:24.is stopping. I'm not sure I understand the question. People
:10:24. > :10:28.were used to buying a house and then another when they are more, a
:10:28. > :10:31.first-time sellers are finding it difficult to do that. That
:10:31. > :10:38.presumably means the escalator effect of a housing market is
:10:38. > :10:42.stopping. I think it has slowed down but not stop. There is no
:10:42. > :10:52.doubt that everyone would agree that finding mortgages five or six
:10:52. > :10:59.
:10:59. > :11:03.years ago was. -- was way too easy. We need to find a balance. Forcing
:11:03. > :11:07.people into the private sector against their better wishes...
:11:07. > :11:10.have just heard what Professor Douglas Robertson was saying, are
:11:10. > :11:17.you finding your members are having that as a bigger part of their
:11:17. > :11:27.business? Yes, there is no doubt it is an increasing part of the market
:11:27. > :11:28.
:11:28. > :11:38.but it is probably temporary. There is a mindset that they want to warn
:11:38. > :11:41.
:11:41. > :11:45.their own property and it will not disappear. Is a temporary lip? The
:11:45. > :11:53.tax system would make you believe that house prices will recover
:11:53. > :11:57.because you do not pay tax on selling. There are other things
:11:57. > :12:01.going on. If we look at the proportion of young people in
:12:01. > :12:05.private renting, a significant proportion of them, half the
:12:05. > :12:12.population are going to university, have got student debt. Their
:12:12. > :12:18.capacity to carry on debt... Could we see a circular change? If banks
:12:18. > :12:23.are busy refinancing themselves and not providing mortgage product... I
:12:23. > :12:29.think there are issues about private renting, Santander and
:12:29. > :12:37.Clydesdale Bank are pulling out of the buy-to-let mortgage at market.
:12:37. > :12:40.We are seeing private renting increasing by 6.9%. That market is
:12:40. > :12:49.quite buoyant but other people coming into that market, if they
:12:49. > :12:55.want to get in to buy to rent, facilities are being constrained.
:12:56. > :13:03.Unless the financing system shifts back to where it was, maybe this is
:13:03. > :13:08.a change that was more fundamental. A higher number of people will read
:13:08. > :13:16.and then we need to ask ourselves, is it acceptable to have the
:13:16. > :13:23.tenancy that is offered as a six- month tenancy? If you need to find
:13:23. > :13:26.it a new house every six months, that is unsustainable. There is a
:13:26. > :13:31.problem that a housing market is not functioning in the short term
:13:31. > :13:34.as a real market. We have lots of people that want to sell and lots
:13:34. > :13:44.of people that want to buy and they do not meet in the middle. That is
:13:44. > :13:45.
:13:45. > :13:49.the problem and people need to put pressure on the lenders. It cannot
:13:49. > :13:56.just be the lenders, people are not prepared to pay enough to get what
:13:56. > :13:59.they want, or people selling the houses are not prepared to accept
:13:59. > :14:05.that their houses are worth 20% of what they were worth a couple of
:14:05. > :14:09.years ago. People are being more realistic in what they will accept
:14:09. > :14:17.on their houses, which will put downward pressure on houses, but
:14:17. > :14:22.only for a short term. But why? Surely if you have hoses on your
:14:22. > :14:28.books as estate agents, the implication is people are not
:14:28. > :14:33.cutting the price is far enough. House prices need to fall a lot
:14:33. > :14:38.further. Those people being realistic are finding buyers and
:14:38. > :14:43.selling houses quickly. It is a slow process, people are coming to
:14:43. > :14:51.terms with the fact that it is going to take some time, because we
:14:51. > :14:56.did get into an unrealistic situation five or six years ago.
:14:56. > :15:01.you went to sleep last night four sets into the Murray match,
:15:01. > :15:06.thinking he lost it, you would wake up to find out how wrong you were.
:15:06. > :15:12.Congratulations to him, a fantastic achievement. The same cannot be
:15:13. > :15:16.said for the Scotland national team. They drew 1-1 against Macedonia.
:15:16. > :15:26.Politicians have been quick to jump on the bandwagon for Andy Murray.
:15:26. > :15:27.
:15:27. > :15:35.We have been asking if the momentum will live on in the Scottish Psyche.
:15:35. > :15:38.Dour, deep. Some might call it bloody minded. The Scottish
:15:38. > :15:45.characteristics serve at Dunblane sportsmen well last night.
:15:45. > :15:49.Politicians of every hue were proffering their praises. Andy
:15:49. > :15:55.Murray day. The first item was to congratulate him on his wonderful
:15:55. > :16:00.issue. -- victory. Some bleary eyed cabinet ministers had been watching
:16:00. > :16:05.every shot. I was exhausted watching it but it is extraordinary.
:16:05. > :16:13.I am delighted for him. It is a massive achievement. 76 years,
:16:13. > :16:17.Britain has waited for a Grand Slam win in tennis. Everyone in the
:16:17. > :16:27.chamber will wish to record congratulations to Andy Murray
:16:27. > :16:33.
:16:33. > :16:38.after his historic success. Politics and sport are a heady mix.
:16:38. > :16:45.Identity and the constitution are huge issues for the next few years.
:16:45. > :16:52.Also, it has been a bit -- massive year for Britishness, lots of Union
:16:52. > :16:55.Jack, discussion about Britain as a successful unit because of sport.
:16:56. > :17:00.In the real world things are going on that make it look not as shiny
:17:00. > :17:07.and attractive. Perhaps it is not surprising politicians are aligning
:17:07. > :17:14.themselves with sporting success, but is there any evidence we are so
:17:14. > :17:18.easily swayed? Andy Murray is someone who has been successful at
:17:18. > :17:23.the very top, he was successful in New York, which was a cosmopolitan
:17:23. > :17:30.place, so every Scot will think it is possible for Scots to make it in
:17:30. > :17:35.the big arena, even if they do not explicitly draw that conclusion. At
:17:35. > :17:40.the back of their mind, a Scot has won a tennis match, and who would
:17:40. > :17:44.believe that? 30 years ago, some members of the chattering classes
:17:44. > :17:50.were convinced if Scotland had fared better during the World Cup
:17:50. > :17:56.campaign in Argentina, the 1979 referendum on evolution might have
:17:56. > :18:03.had different result. -- the evolution. Politically I am not
:18:03. > :18:06.sure it means that much deep down, when people go back to daily life.
:18:06. > :18:15.Great things to watch and participate in, but after that,
:18:15. > :18:21.what happens to people? They get on with their lives. It involves good
:18:21. > :18:25.things and bad things. They have enjoyed it and they move on.
:18:25. > :18:32.builds up the belief in Scotland as a country again. Instead of just
:18:32. > :18:41.being a part of England, it is Scotland. He has been trying hard,
:18:41. > :18:48.it is great to see a Scot doing it. My feeling is it might away but I
:18:48. > :18:57.hope it continues, but it has given everyone a bit of a boost. Everyone
:18:57. > :19:06.is feeling happier. In a couple of weeks, will the nation still feel
:19:06. > :19:09.up lifted and confident all we wait revert to type? There is part of
:19:09. > :19:16.the Scottish identity that wallows in failure and is lacking in
:19:16. > :19:23.confidence, and it shows itself in things like Scots being taciturn,
:19:24. > :19:26.find it difficult to speak up in crowds. Although national
:19:27. > :19:30.identities can be exaggerated, there is something about Scotland
:19:30. > :19:37.that involves having a chip on both shoulders and not being a ray of
:19:37. > :19:41.sunshine. Andy Murray said he couldn't believe he had finally won
:19:41. > :19:49.a major. It's a shame we cat making fakes the fortunes of the football