:00:14. > :00:19.On Newsnight Scotland tonight, we bring together both sides of the
:00:19. > :00:21.referendum campaign. Yes Scotland meets Better Together as the
:00:21. > :00:26.British Social Attitudes Survey provides the latest snapshot on
:00:26. > :00:32.what we are thinking about Scotland's future. Yes, it is a
:00:32. > :00:35.snapshot, but does it confirm a trend? Hello, good evening. How
:00:35. > :00:38.strong his support for independence? You would think a
:00:38. > :00:43.reputable academic survey would be able to answer the question
:00:43. > :00:46.definitively, but the findings of the 2012 British Social Attitudes
:00:46. > :00:51.Survey have been used by supporters and opponents as an indication that
:00:51. > :00:56.they are winning the argument. Only 32% said they favoured independence,
:00:57. > :01:06.but then again 43% said they wanted Holyrood to make all decisions.
:01:07. > :01:10.
:01:10. > :01:17.Jamie McIvor has been taking a # I have travelled a very long
:01:17. > :01:23.way... It takes all kinds of folk to rally to LACORS. This mural has
:01:23. > :01:27.just been unveiled in Glasgow's West End. All local life is
:01:27. > :01:30.represented, apparently content and United. How much what the
:01:30. > :01:35.campaigners for and against independence like to build a
:01:35. > :01:40.movement like that? This year's British Social Attitudes Survey
:01:40. > :01:47.suggests that Scots are not content with the economy, and there is no
:01:47. > :01:50.unity over the question dominating Scottish politics, independence.
:01:50. > :01:56.The survey suggests that while support for independence may rise
:01:56. > :02:03.and fall, it is remarkably stable over the longer term. Last year, it
:02:03. > :02:07.stood at 32%, well up on 2010, but lower than five years earlier.
:02:07. > :02:10.truth is that this survey is the only survey that has asked the same
:02:10. > :02:15.question about constitutional preferences for the way back since
:02:15. > :02:18.the foundation of the parliament in 1999. Basically, it suggests that
:02:19. > :02:22.over the long run there is no trend in one direction or the other so
:02:22. > :02:26.far as support for independence is concerned. In other words,
:02:26. > :02:29.supporters tend to oscillate between a quarter and a third in
:02:29. > :02:34.the survey, and the most recent reading is taught the higher end of
:02:34. > :02:39.that range, but in truth there is no clear evidence that one side or
:02:39. > :02:42.the other over the long run, over the whole period of devolution has
:02:42. > :02:49.made significant progress in reducing support for independence
:02:49. > :02:53.for in increasing it. And what sort of folk back independence or the
:02:53. > :02:59.Union? It seems women are still decidedly more sceptical about
:02:59. > :03:04.independence than men. What seems to be true is that women are less
:03:04. > :03:07.confident than men about the prospect of independence, and that
:03:07. > :03:11.goes back to the fact that women are somewhat doubtful about the
:03:11. > :03:16.economic consequences of independence. Maybe it is gender
:03:16. > :03:19.stereotyping, but maybe men are more likely to take a risk. They
:03:19. > :03:22.are more willing to express confidence about the idea of
:03:22. > :03:26.independence. In contrast, women are more likely to say they are
:03:26. > :03:33.worried. That is one of the issues on which yes campaign are going to
:03:33. > :03:39.have to work. So what about more powers for Holyrood short of actual
:03:39. > :03:43.independence? In other words, devo max, still a possible second option
:03:43. > :03:49.in two years' time. Well, a majority backed Holyrood being able
:03:49. > :03:52.to decide on taxes and welfare, but not defence and foreign affairs.
:03:52. > :03:56.The cutting point where we move from a minority of people in
:03:56. > :04:00.Scotland being in favour of change to a majority clearly in favour of
:04:00. > :04:07.change is the point where we moved to devo max. That is something that
:04:07. > :04:12.can get majority support. It is not the case that devolution Max is the
:04:12. > :04:15.most preferred option of most people in Scotland, but what is
:04:15. > :04:19.truth is that virtually everybody who is in favour of independence
:04:19. > :04:23.thinks that devo max is also a good idea, and around a half of those
:04:23. > :04:28.who want to stay in the United Kingdom also think that it is a
:04:28. > :04:31.good idea. Therefore, we get this potential coalition and consensus
:04:31. > :04:38.built around an idea that is not necessary anybody's first choice
:04:38. > :04:44.but seems to be something you can get majority backing for. And what
:04:44. > :04:48.about the opinions south of the border? People there will not have
:04:48. > :04:52.a vote on independence, of course, but their views might form part of
:04:52. > :04:56.the debate and the mood music. There is certainly evidence of
:04:56. > :05:00.increasing unhappiness about the perceived anomalies of devolution.
:05:00. > :05:07.26% of people in England now believes Scotland should leave the
:05:07. > :05:15.UK, compared with just 14% in 1997. The number of people there want a
:05:15. > :05:19.devolved Scotland within the UK has dropped. So what can the pro and
:05:19. > :05:23.anti-independence campaigns learn from this study of Scottish life?
:05:23. > :05:27.It can help give them an idea of what would and would not persuade
:05:27. > :05:34.some folk. The people currently undecided who could decide our
:05:34. > :05:40.nation's future. Jamie McIvor reporting. Well,
:05:40. > :05:45.Professor John Curtice is with me live now. Give 43% want Holyrood to
:05:45. > :05:48.make all the decisions, why do only 32% favour independence? I was
:05:48. > :05:52.rather surprised that he started his programme thinking that
:05:52. > :05:56.academics would give you a clear answer to a question! The truth is
:05:56. > :06:01.that we know from a survey research how you pose a question often makes
:06:01. > :06:05.a difference to the answer. It is a big difference. And it is a bigger
:06:05. > :06:09.difference than when we did the same exercise one year earlier.
:06:09. > :06:12.Undoubtedly, what it gives you an indication of is that the idea of
:06:12. > :06:16.independence itself, and the word is not necessarily particularly
:06:16. > :06:19.popular, but the idea that here Scotland has been putting forward
:06:19. > :06:24.that people in Scotland should be able to make decisions for itself
:06:24. > :06:29.and people should make decisions for Scotland, that is a popular
:06:29. > :06:31.idea and more popular. That said, yes, there is a difference between
:06:31. > :06:35.the proportion of people who support independence expressed one
:06:35. > :06:40.way rather than the other, but when you look under the bonnet and ask
:06:40. > :06:44.yourself, who are the people are in favour of independence? You
:06:44. > :06:49.discover it looks rather similar, you have to feel pretty strongly
:06:49. > :06:54.Scottish, you have to feel that Scottish -- up and can be better
:06:54. > :06:59.off economically, however the question is asked. Well, the extent
:06:59. > :07:08.to which this is a decision based around national identity, how
:07:08. > :07:14.potent a brand will the campaign for keeping Scotland in the UK find
:07:14. > :07:17.Britain and Britishness? Well, I think there is no doubt that if the
:07:17. > :07:21.Better Together campaign are going to fight an effective campaign,
:07:21. > :07:24.they have to recognise that while it is true that around two-thirds
:07:24. > :07:29.of people in Scotland are still willing to acknowledge at least
:07:29. > :07:34.some sense of British identity, for most of those it is their second
:07:34. > :07:38.identity, not their first. An effective campaign for the union
:07:38. > :07:42.cannot be fought on the basis of saying to people, let's keeps
:07:42. > :07:46.Britain great. The basis of their campaign has essentially to be, it
:07:46. > :07:50.is fine to be Scottish, and indeed you can be proud to be Scottish,
:07:50. > :07:54.and Scotland can be a proud country and remain within the Union. At the
:07:54. > :07:57.moment, one of the things about independence about which a lot of
:07:57. > :08:01.people agree is that if Scotland were to be independent, more people
:08:01. > :08:05.would have pride in their country. That is an argument the Better
:08:05. > :08:09.Together campaign have to deal with. On the other side of the argument,
:08:10. > :08:14.will the SNP and others in the nationalist camp, will they find it
:08:14. > :08:19.easier to sell independence if it comes with the Queen, the pound,
:08:19. > :08:23.membership of the EU, possibly NATO and goodness knows what else?
:08:23. > :08:26.Certainly, there is no doubt that the SNP strategy has been very much
:08:26. > :08:32.based on the idea that, look, Scotland can the Independent but
:08:32. > :08:36.those things of everyday life that you might value, EastEnders to the
:08:36. > :08:40.Royal Family, would still be with us. Of course, that strategy has
:08:40. > :08:44.hit difficulties, because there is a whole economic argument about
:08:45. > :08:48.whether or not Scotland, in keeping the pound and being part of the
:08:48. > :08:53.monetary union with the UK, whether such a stance is possible, given
:08:53. > :08:56.the lessons of the eurozone crisis. I think that therefore brings us to
:08:56. > :09:00.what is the most crucial lesson of the survey, which is at the end of
:09:00. > :09:03.the day, so far as the "yes" campaign is concerned, if they are
:09:03. > :09:06.going to win the referendum, they are going to have to win the
:09:06. > :09:11.economic argument. Most people in Scotland feel primarily Scottish,
:09:11. > :09:15.they are proud to be Scottish, that is already a fair wind for the
:09:15. > :09:19."yes" campaign. What is much less of a fair wind is the economic
:09:19. > :09:22.argument. It is only a third of people in Scotland who think that
:09:22. > :09:27.Scotland would be worse off economically, but only a third are
:09:27. > :09:31.in favour, and unless you are clearly thinking that Scotland
:09:31. > :09:35.would be better off economically, you're not likely to feel confident
:09:35. > :09:38.about the prospect of independence, and so you're not likely to support
:09:38. > :09:43.it. Unless they can put those three things together, the "yes" campaign
:09:43. > :09:47.are not likely to win. Also in the studio, from yet Scotland, the
:09:47. > :09:51.chief executive, Blair Jenkins, and in Edinburgh, from Better Together,
:09:51. > :09:57.Willie Rennie, who is also leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats.
:09:57. > :10:02.Blair Jenkins, John mentioned the power of the economic argument, how
:10:02. > :10:12.are you going to make the economic case for people to vote yes to
:10:12. > :10:12.
:10:12. > :10:19.More people in the survey think that Scotland will be better off
:10:19. > :10:23.under independence than worse off, which is a good place to start.
:10:23. > :10:29.Economics will be the essence of the debate. Even under current
:10:29. > :10:36.arrangements, Scotland pays more into the UK Treasury, 9.6 % of tax
:10:36. > :10:40.revenues in the UK, and takes out only 9.3 % of public spending, says
:10:40. > :10:49.Scotland is already the main contributor. And do you accept that
:10:49. > :10:54.the basic argument there, Willie Rennie, that there is more money
:10:54. > :10:59.going in than coming out? There is quite a lot of dispute about those
:10:59. > :11:05.figures but the reason why even if you accept Blair's figures, the
:11:05. > :11:10.reason why Scotland is successful is because it is part of the United
:11:10. > :11:18.Kingdom. How do you know that it would not thrice more as an
:11:18. > :11:23.independent country? It is the SNP's proposition and it is not
:11:23. > :11:28.something I would support. They have to prove that we would be
:11:28. > :11:33.better off. I note that through the single market and as part of the
:11:33. > :11:36.United Kingdom, Scotland is in a better place. I guess it is not the
:11:36. > :11:40.kind of thing you can no without trying it and it is not the kind of
:11:40. > :11:47.thing you can try before you buy. So how do you turn around the
:11:47. > :11:53.figures in the survey, turn around a third support for independence in
:11:53. > :12:00.to a majority? There are cases where figures shift dramatically.
:12:00. > :12:08.In 1996, in the summer, the vote for independence was only 26 %. Two
:12:08. > :12:16.years later that had gone up to 60%. In 2009, independence support was
:12:16. > :12:20.33 %... Is... As John Curtice has pointed out, the trend is that
:12:20. > :12:23.between a quarter and a third of people tend to said they are in
:12:23. > :12:30.favour of independence. How do you get the numbers are up to a winning
:12:30. > :12:35.position? There has never been a poll showing majority support in
:12:35. > :12:39.Scotland for independence, it has been said. But that is not true.
:12:39. > :12:44.What about your strategy? How will you persuade more people to vote
:12:44. > :12:49.for independence? The reason why we are finding today so positive is we
:12:49. > :12:53.now have two years to give people the information. There will be
:12:53. > :12:58.intense focus on the arguments and the issues around Scotland's
:12:58. > :13:03.constitutional future. That will really build the case to get people
:13:03. > :13:07.to a majority position in favour of independence. Willie Rennie, if
:13:07. > :13:12.people feel more Scottish than British and it Scottish was to
:13:12. > :13:16.become an independent country, and national pride would be greater,
:13:16. > :13:20.aren't there are signs that Blair Jenkins might be on to something
:13:20. > :13:25.here? I think he's making a brave attempt at this but the figures
:13:25. > :13:30.today are terrible for the Yes Scotland campaign. None of those
:13:30. > :13:34.figures show a majority support. Even if you distorted to the 43 %
:13:34. > :13:37.figure with all the powers in Scotland, there is not one single
:13:37. > :13:41.figure that shows there is majority support for any definition of
:13:41. > :13:45.independence. In fact, it is the opposite. If you look at foreign
:13:45. > :13:52.affairs and defence, most people want that to remain at a UK level
:13:52. > :13:55.by quite a whopping margin. So this is a brave attempt by Blair to
:13:55. > :14:00.redefine what independence means and support for independence but
:14:00. > :14:04.most people are pretty firm that they do not support independence.
:14:04. > :14:09.What do you mean by independence? You are still waiting, I suppose,
:14:09. > :14:12.for the SNP and is that the Government to define what they mean.
:14:12. > :14:17.How do you know you will be in favour of the formula they come up
:14:17. > :14:20.with? Yes, the Scottish Government are going through the process of
:14:20. > :14:24.defining what exactly they mean by independence. What is not happening
:14:24. > :14:30.is on the other side of the equation, the Unionist parties are
:14:30. > :14:33.not deciding what they mean by devolution. But this is about more
:14:33. > :14:41.powers for Scotland and as John Curtice says, that is what people
:14:41. > :14:43.really get behind. In this latest finding, this survey, at 72 % want
:14:43. > :14:46.substantially more powers for the Scottish Parliament. Biking when
:14:46. > :14:50.the people of Scotland are presented with the option of an
:14:50. > :14:55.independent Scotland, with the arguments we making the next two
:14:55. > :15:04.years, or essentially a very negative campaign, but no and he
:15:04. > :15:08.will get nothing, they will travel in our direction. -- vote "no".
:15:08. > :15:16.needs to check his facts. All the parties are looking at more powers.
:15:16. > :15:25.We have a commission which reports next month. That is where we agree
:15:25. > :15:29.most. We are actually defining what all that means. Now we are getting
:15:29. > :15:33.Blair arguing the case for a policy that he is not actually there to
:15:33. > :15:37.defend, which is more powers. Perhaps you should spend a bit more
:15:37. > :15:40.time actually arguing for independence. But given that that
:15:41. > :15:45.is what you are in favour of, something approaching Devolution
:15:45. > :15:49.Max, Holyrood controlling almost everything except defence and
:15:49. > :15:58.foreign affairs, why don't you seize the moment and get that on
:15:58. > :16:03.the ballot paper? Because you know that it does not work. You cannot
:16:03. > :16:08.deal with two different concepts in one referendum. But John Curtice
:16:08. > :16:15.does it in these surveys year in, year out. People seem to understand.
:16:15. > :16:20.By a referendum is not an opinion poll. Well, it is an independence
:16:20. > :16:23.poll with consequences. We need to decide if we are part of the United
:16:23. > :16:27.Kingdom or not in a clear referendum with a decisive outcome
:16:27. > :16:33.so we can move on to decide what kind of devolution be one for the
:16:33. > :16:39.future. The whole 99-51 conundrum where the majority of people vote
:16:39. > :16:45.devo max but only 51 % vote independence, we are still be
:16:45. > :16:49.independent, that he's a kind of democracy that I do not understand
:16:49. > :16:53.or support. He is so important because people are now saying to us
:16:53. > :16:57.that what they really want this information. They are beginning to
:16:57. > :17:02.engage with the discussion and it Siddick -- issues but they wanted
:17:02. > :17:09.more information. I thought you were for independence? Completely
:17:10. > :17:14.and utterly. The more information we give about the advantages of
:17:14. > :17:20.independence, then it is a natural and logical extension of devolution.
:17:20. > :17:26.People like very much what has happened with devolution. It lacks
:17:26. > :17:31.the decisions Scotland has been able to take. It is then a natural
:17:31. > :17:36.progression. -- it likes the decisions. How important do you
:17:36. > :17:40.think the English actor is, with rising concern, perhaps, in England,
:17:40. > :17:46.and the current devolution settlement? -- the English back to
:17:46. > :17:52.earth. It is more prominent now than it ever has been so there will
:17:52. > :17:55.be greater awareness now it sounds of the border. People want to be
:17:55. > :18:01.part of a United Kingdom. It is something they have actually
:18:01. > :18:05.cherished over many years. They have the NHS, the BBC, many great
:18:05. > :18:10.institutions. The pension. All these things are British and that
:18:10. > :18:15.is why people want to remain part of the United Kingdom, because it
:18:15. > :18:20.has been good of us -- for us. Women, it seems, are less persuaded
:18:20. > :18:23.of your case than men. How will you address that? Again, I think there
:18:23. > :18:29.is a demand for more information and that is something we need to do
:18:29. > :18:39.over the next couple of years. There is a compelling argument in
:18:39. > :18:39.
:18:39. > :18:43.terms of more prosperity, and at the moment people feel that there
:18:43. > :18:48.is a disparity in wealth. We continue to yet governments we did
:18:48. > :18:54.not vote for and policies we do not want. That is something prevalent
:18:54. > :18:59.now and with a strong feeling, wide public support in Scotland.
:18:59. > :19:04.Particularly to women? Both men and women. Blair goes on about wanting
:19:04. > :19:13.more information. We do need a lot more information because so far we
:19:13. > :19:20.have had silence from the SNP and from your Scotland. He has tried to
:19:20. > :19:30.say as little as possible. -- from yes Scotland. We have to leave it
:19:30. > :19:38.there. Thank you very much. Do a quick look at tomorrow's front
:19:38. > :19:41.pages. The Scotsman goes on the referendum. There is a picture of
:19:41. > :19:45.Andy Murray, too. That is just about all from
:19:45. > :19:50.Newsnight Scotland for tonight but we will leave you with a closer
:19:50. > :20:00.look at Alasdair Gray's annual unveiled a needle bit earlier today
:20:00. > :20:00.
:20:00. > :21:00.Apology for the loss of subtitles for 59 seconds
:21:00. > :21:04.in hell had in Glasgow. -- in Good evening. Tuesday will be a day
:21:04. > :21:09.of sunny spells and scattered showers. Most of the showers will
:21:09. > :21:14.be from North Wales up northwards into northern England, Scotland and
:21:14. > :21:20.the Northern Isles. So the further south you are, it should be a
:21:20. > :21:23.decent day. A keen and north- westerly breeze. 16 in London but
:21:23. > :21:28.it should be dry and bright foremost on the day. Broken cloud
:21:28. > :21:32.and some sunshine and that is what you will find across most of the
:21:32. > :21:38.southern counties of England. A chance of light showers in the
:21:38. > :21:42.southern half of Wales but I suspect a bright and dry afternoon
:21:43. > :21:48.in Cardiff. Sunny spells and a scattering of showers, too, in
:21:48. > :21:56.Northern Ireland. Breezy in Belfast. Wind even stronger across the West
:21:56. > :22:00.of Scotland. I suspect there will be a slightly better day with sunny
:22:00. > :22:08.spells and showers. Many places on Wednesday it will enjoy a decent
:22:08. > :22:11.day. Clear spells of sunshine. That is after quite a cold start. But
:22:11. > :22:19.temperatures rising in the afternoon with good spells of