0:00:00 > 0:00:02towards breast-feeding, very much. Tonight and Newsnight Scotland:
0:00:02 > 0:00:07Alex Salmond claims this week has been historic because of his deal
0:00:07 > 0:00:11with David Cameron but he has a row over NATO and opinion polls to deal
0:00:11 > 0:00:15with at the SNP conference. I will be asking the Cabinet Secretary
0:00:15 > 0:00:19Alex Neil when he expects the people of Scotland to respond to
0:00:20 > 0:00:25the nationalist arguments for independence.
0:00:25 > 0:00:32The serried ranks of the SNP are being Perth. Some delegates may be
0:00:32 > 0:00:34wondering if it is all age dream. Their party has a majority
0:00:34 > 0:00:39Government and there is an independence referendum. Their
0:00:39 > 0:00:44leader tells them the nonsense will come to an end in 2014. So they are
0:00:44 > 0:00:48having an -- a divisive debate on defence policy.
0:00:48 > 0:00:52Tonight delegates were debating the issue of NATO on the fringe.
0:00:52 > 0:00:57Tomorrow they will decide their party's policy on the conference
0:00:57 > 0:01:01floor, aware of the historical resonance.
0:01:01 > 0:01:07The foreign ministers of 12 Western nations entered the departmental
0:01:07 > 0:01:11auditoria in Washington to sign the Atlantic Pact... 1949, the
0:01:11 > 0:01:17foundation of NATO. Then and now the basis is mutual defence, and
0:01:17 > 0:01:23armed attack on one member is to an attack on all. Then and now, NATO
0:01:23 > 0:01:27is a nuclear alliance and most of his 28 members have no nuclear arms
0:01:27 > 0:01:32capacity of their own. Britain is one of the exceptions. The Trident
0:01:32 > 0:01:38Vanguard submarines based at Faslane Inverclyde.
0:01:38 > 0:01:42Within the SNP, support of NATO say it would offer reassurance but they
0:01:42 > 0:01:47are adamant that an independent Scotland would only join NATO if
0:01:47 > 0:01:52Trident goes. If Scotland is free from atomic weapons. But critics
0:01:52 > 0:01:56say that is hypocrisy. Banishing Trident and yet continuing to
0:01:56 > 0:02:02shelter under NATO's nuclear umbrella. And they condemn NATO as
0:02:02 > 0:02:11a relic. The Cold War is over. The Soviet threat no longer exists.
0:02:11 > 0:02:17What is no joke for, is a fair question. The bank -- what is NATO
0:02:17 > 0:02:21for? It does not have a call by this. Faslane was chosen for the
0:02:21 > 0:02:26nuclear deterrent because it is secluded with deep water and facts
0:02:26 > 0:02:33of access to the North Atlantic. Critics say NATO would seek to stop
0:02:33 > 0:02:37the removal of Trident from Scotland. But SNP leaders insist
0:02:37 > 0:02:43they are anti-nuclear and say a new Scottish constitution would ban
0:02:43 > 0:02:47Trident. They say NATO has contemporary relevance. We know
0:02:47 > 0:02:53that the majority does not want Trident. This way we can get the
0:02:53 > 0:02:57best of both worlds, and be a good neighbour and arrive. Outside the
0:02:57 > 0:03:02conference anti-nuclear campaigners urged the SNP to reject NATO
0:03:02 > 0:03:06membership. It is like saying you will not carry a knife but you will
0:03:06 > 0:03:10be in a gang of people carrying knives. I do not believe we will be
0:03:10 > 0:03:15able to get rid of Trident without a fight, and we will be fighting it
0:03:15 > 0:03:21on that issue. The SNP leadership believe they can marry defence
0:03:21 > 0:03:25pragmatism with anti-nuclear principles. I think Scotland's's
0:03:25 > 0:03:29Jia strategic interests are shared by our North Sea partners. That is
0:03:29 > 0:03:34the right thing to do that on the absolute condition that we do not
0:03:34 > 0:03:40host nuclear weapons, because the SNP has always been an anti-nuclear
0:03:40 > 0:03:46party. This week's deal on a referendum will be influential,
0:03:46 > 0:03:52focusing the SNP's eyes. We are now closer to our goal of Scottish
0:03:52 > 0:03:56independence, not just in the 80 years of SNP history but over the
0:03:56 > 0:04:02last 300 years. That is what awaits the people of Scotland in two
0:04:02 > 0:04:07years' time. APPLAUSE. SNP leaders say Scotland
0:04:07 > 0:04:13can board -- build upon devolution to secured further powers through
0:04:13 > 0:04:19independence, including defence. I am joined now by the Health
0:04:19 > 0:04:24Secretary, Alex Neil, live from the conference. Alex Neil, there is a
0:04:24 > 0:04:27proposal to put off the vote on NATO at this conference and have a
0:04:27 > 0:04:35referendum amongst the party members. Is that something you
0:04:35 > 0:04:39would support? No, the Party's constitution is clear and that is
0:04:39 > 0:04:42that policy decisions made at the annual conference and in between
0:04:42 > 0:04:46the annual conference at the quarterly national council. There
0:04:46 > 0:04:51is a provision to have a referendum on a policy issue and in any case,
0:04:51 > 0:04:56this decision will be taken tomorrow so quite frankly, the idea
0:04:56 > 0:05:06of a referendum is a non-starter. Do you expect to win the Green?
0:05:06 > 0:05:09think we'd win -- will you win the vote? I think we will. We have a
0:05:10 > 0:05:15democratic and transparent process and I think the debate itself
0:05:15 > 0:05:20demonstrates how mature, open and democratic the SNP is compared to
0:05:20 > 0:05:24opposition parties. And do you expect, whatever the outcome of the
0:05:24 > 0:05:29vote, everyone else to rally round? After all, the very suggestion that
0:05:29 > 0:05:34there should be a referendum does not indicate that the people
0:05:34 > 0:05:39proposing these have much confidence in the party conference.
0:05:39 > 0:05:42At the end of the day, everybody signs up as a member of the party
0:05:42 > 0:05:47to the party constitution and the democratic procedures. I think
0:05:47 > 0:05:52irrespective of the outturn tomorrow, the party will come
0:05:52 > 0:05:57together and unite. It is not the liking of the SNP membership,
0:05:57 > 0:06:01particularly when there is such a big prize at stake in 2014 for us
0:06:01 > 0:06:06after tomorrow, after the decision, to still continue to argue about it.
0:06:06 > 0:06:10We will except, everybody will accept the resolve and move on.
0:06:10 > 0:06:12Another contentious issue at your conference is same-sex marriage. I
0:06:12 > 0:06:18think Gordon Wilson your former leader will be speaking on that.
0:06:18 > 0:06:21There was a fringe meeting on it earlier this evening. Do you think
0:06:21 > 0:06:26the promise of a free vote in Parliament on the legislation you
0:06:26 > 0:06:32bring forward will be enough to keep the parties together on this?
0:06:32 > 0:06:36Absolutely. This is an issue of conscience. We are not running this
0:06:36 > 0:06:39down people's throats. We are saying to everybody in Parliament
0:06:39 > 0:06:43this is a matter of conscience and every member of the Scottish
0:06:43 > 0:06:49Parliament will have their own decision to make, or whether --
0:06:49 > 0:06:55when the legislation comes before them. A will you be voting for it?
0:06:55 > 0:07:01I will be voting for the principle. I am the minister in charge of the
0:07:01 > 0:07:05bill. I took over that responsibility from Nicola Sturgeon
0:07:05 > 0:07:12when we swapped jobs a month ago. I think the entire Cabinet will vote
0:07:12 > 0:07:15for it. So you are in favour of same-sex marriage? Yes, I think the
0:07:15 > 0:07:19principle of this is absolutely right. What we are trying to do is
0:07:19 > 0:07:22make sure there is a proper balance between the rights of those people
0:07:22 > 0:07:26who are the same sex and in love and want to get married and have
0:07:26 > 0:07:31that marriage recognised by the state, recognising their right to
0:07:31 > 0:07:34have that and balance that against the rights of the clergy and the
0:07:34 > 0:07:38churches do not to participate in same-sex marriage if that is
0:07:38 > 0:07:41against their principles and their religion. We have given an absolute
0:07:41 > 0:07:47guarantee and we have a commitment in principle from the UK Government
0:07:47 > 0:07:52to change the Quantas legislation so that there will be a guarantee
0:07:52 > 0:07:55to the clergy and church is that they will not be compelled to
0:07:56 > 0:07:59participate in same-sex marriage. We are getting the best of both
0:07:59 > 0:08:02worlds, securing the rights of people who want a same-sex marriage
0:08:02 > 0:08:12and securing the rights of the clergy who do not want to
0:08:12 > 0:08:23
0:08:23 > 0:08:28We have had two opinion polls, showing that support for
0:08:28 > 0:08:34independence has fallen. opinion polls have balloon debate
0:08:34 > 0:08:39all over the place. There was an opinion poll last week which said
0:08:39 > 0:08:46that when you're asked people a specific question, would they be
0:08:46 > 0:08:54better off and an independent Scotland? You get a different
0:08:54 > 0:08:59result when you ask the question that wave. Last year, 65% people
0:08:59 > 0:09:06who thought they would be �500 a year better off, 65% would vote for
0:09:06 > 0:09:11it. The core of our campaign has to be to persuade people, both as
0:09:11 > 0:09:15individuals and families, that both individuals and the nation would be
0:09:15 > 0:09:23better off both economically and socially as a result of
0:09:23 > 0:09:28independence. Just to be clear, what you are saying is that when
0:09:28 > 0:09:34pollsters ask questions like the questions you are proposing to ask,
0:09:34 > 0:09:41and find that support is falling, that means nothing, but when you
0:09:41 > 0:09:49ask them loaded questions, and they say yes, that somehow was full of
0:09:49 > 0:09:56meaning and significance? Are no, if we get across the message, which
0:09:56 > 0:10:00I believe we will, but a Yes vote means we will be better off, I
0:10:00 > 0:10:06think we would get the majority for independence. If we don't persuade
0:10:06 > 0:10:15them, but we were not get a majority. We have got to... Opinion
0:10:15 > 0:10:22polls can change. If you average out support a independence has been
0:10:22 > 0:10:29running at the same level for 20 years. You have been in government
0:10:29 > 0:10:34since... For five years now. You have made no impact whatsoever for
0:10:34 > 0:10:41support for the ideology of your party. Surely, you must have
0:10:41 > 0:10:51expected better than that. We both know that a penny impulse, as you
0:10:51 > 0:10:53
0:10:53 > 0:11:01move towards decision day, you tend to see a change. -- we both know
0:11:01 > 0:11:11that as you move towards decision day. We actually won an overall
0:11:11 > 0:11:12
0:11:12 > 0:11:16majority against all the odds. Therefore, the opinion polls much
0:11:16 > 0:11:22closer to the actual decision day, by which time the detailed
0:11:22 > 0:11:27arguments will have been Ed much more. For example, we are
0:11:27 > 0:11:35publishing detail over the coming months. -- which will have been
0:11:35 > 0:11:41aired. I used seriously telling me you are not disappointed in any way
0:11:41 > 0:11:51that after five years, there is no sign of any rise in support for
0:11:51 > 0:11:54independence? What I am saying is I am too long in the tooth, I have
0:11:54 > 0:12:01been round the block too often to know and think we would get
0:12:01 > 0:12:06brilliant opinion polls. The campaign has barely started. Once
0:12:06 > 0:12:10the campaign gets underway, and once you and I are having this
0:12:10 > 0:12:20conversation a month before polling day, he was the opinion polls been
0:12:20 > 0:12:22
0:12:22 > 0:12:25very different. -- you will see the opinion polls.
0:12:25 > 0:12:28Now, the start of this week saw the so-called Edinburgh Agreement,
0:12:28 > 0:12:30which attracted a fair bit of international media attention. The
0:12:30 > 0:12:33Scottish independence debate is being reported in a number of other
0:12:33 > 0:12:40countries, as it chimes in a variety of ways with their own
0:12:40 > 0:12:50domestic political issues. I'm joined now from Perth by the London
0:12:50 > 0:12:59
0:12:59 > 0:13:07editor of the Irish Times, Mark Hennessy. What do you make of the
0:13:07 > 0:13:12NATO debate? Is at there a parallel in Ireland? There is, in the sense
0:13:12 > 0:13:16that if you hear people talking about a nuclear free Scotland, if
0:13:16 > 0:13:24you were to look back at the experience in Ireland, that one not
0:13:24 > 0:13:32happen. After Irish independence, you had the treaty ports, which the
0:13:32 > 0:13:41British kept until 1938 and regretted it. If you look at... If
0:13:41 > 0:13:45everybody concentrates on that place, it can be done a elsewhere.
0:13:45 > 0:13:54The nuclear weapons storage facility is different. He would
0:13:54 > 0:14:00almost certainly end up in a situation where you would have a
0:14:00 > 0:14:06nuclear plat -- presence in an independent Scotland. The opponents
0:14:06 > 0:14:11of independence would say that the UK is a big and important power in
0:14:11 > 0:14:21the world. You might not like what happened in the Iraq war, but
0:14:21 > 0:14:23
0:14:23 > 0:14:28Britain's voice was very important. With no disrespect to Ireland, it
0:14:28 > 0:14:33isn't. It is a fairly small country, no one would not take part in the
0:14:33 > 0:14:43Libyan action last year if the Irish had said no. Our people end
0:14:43 > 0:14:48Ireland happy with that? -- are people in Ireland. Yes, we are.
0:14:48 > 0:14:58There is no point trying to pretend you are Premier League NUR Crewe
0:14:58 > 0:15:11
0:15:11 > 0:15:15Alexandra. We have always seen our projection of power. All people are
0:15:16 > 0:15:22greatly appreciated and admired by the majority of people in Ireland.
0:15:22 > 0:15:29But we do not feel a need to project military power. An
0:15:29 > 0:15:35independent Scotland... A would people in Ireland would make,
0:15:35 > 0:15:39looking here? Are they thinking, this is fantastic. All are they
0:15:39 > 0:15:45thinking, if they are under Premier League, why do they want to become
0:15:45 > 0:15:50Crewe Alexandra? They are not thinking very much about Scotland
0:15:50 > 0:16:00at this very moment in time. We have got far bigger and closer
0:16:00 > 0:16:06problems at home. That would change over the next couple of years. Him
0:16:06 > 0:16:16that the debate will have an instability factor. -- the debate
0:16:16 > 0:16:22will have earned in stability factor. Nobody will be confident on
0:16:22 > 0:16:26the Unionist side. That will make people nervous. It will make people
0:16:26 > 0:16:32even more difficult to deal with than they normally would be. That
0:16:32 > 0:16:36is not in the interest of the Republic at the moment.
0:16:36 > 0:16:46Now a quick look at tomorrow's Now a quick look at tomorrow's
0:16:46 > 0:16:53
0:16:53 > 0:17:00front pages. Leeds on and RBS story. Scottish Daily Mail. This is the