:00:14. > :00:17.ethical mistakes and certainly not On the programme, did the SNP's
:00:17. > :00:22.conference managed to complete the lengthy process of positioning the
:00:22. > :00:26.party for the referendum campaign? Some strategists reckon at the NATO
:00:26. > :00:30.policy change was the final component in a package of changes
:00:30. > :00:36.designed to set the SNP on course for the most significant vote in
:00:36. > :00:40.its history. Good evening. That may have been the most eventful SNP
:00:40. > :00:43.conference in recent years. Most party members probably hoped the
:00:43. > :00:53.excitement would be repeated any time before the referendum, at
:00:53. > :00:57.least. While the SNP vote on NATO policy, setting SNP against -- MSP
:00:57. > :01:02.against MSP, it also seems to have completed the party's policy
:01:02. > :01:06.position in time to get stuck into the proper referendum campaign.
:01:06. > :01:10.Suzanne Allan has been investigating the extent of the SNP
:01:10. > :01:16.has completed and jigsaw of policy elements suitable for their
:01:16. > :01:20.independence campaign. -- completed a jigsaw.
:01:20. > :01:28.The clock is ticking down to an independence referendum in two
:01:28. > :01:38.years' time. These delegates are in a hurry, eager to fast forward to
:01:38. > :01:39.
:01:39. > :01:43.Yesterday, the captain fell on an historic SNP conference in Perth. -
:01:43. > :01:49.- the curtain fell. Fresh from signing an agreement with David
:01:49. > :01:54.Cameron on Monday, Alex Salmond urged delegates to make a U-turn on
:01:54. > :02:00.NATO. Does this mean the SNP have their ducks in a role? Has the
:02:00. > :02:03.final piece of policy jigsaw fall into place? I think the SNP will
:02:03. > :02:08.not have any other major U-turns in policy this side of the referendum,
:02:08. > :02:13.but they still have a lot of work to do. They have to give us a lot
:02:13. > :02:17.will detail on a number of policy areas, much more detail on economic
:02:17. > :02:24.affairs, but substantively I don't think there will be a major change
:02:24. > :02:31.of policy, just more detail. What is the SNP's vision of an
:02:31. > :02:34.independent Scotland? The Queen - in her Diamond Jubilee
:02:34. > :02:40.Year, the Queen and the royal family in general are more popular
:02:40. > :02:44.than they have been for years. Speaking last week on the daily
:02:44. > :02:49.politics, Andrew Neil Prest Alex Salmond on past party's support for
:02:49. > :02:55.a referendum on whether to keep their clean or not. Alex Salmond
:02:55. > :03:00.said it was always SNP policy to keep the monarch as head of state.
:03:01. > :03:04.-- to keep the Queen or not. It was always the policy to retain the
:03:04. > :03:08.king, and now the Queen, as the head of an independent state of
:03:08. > :03:13.Scotland. You argued we had a different
:03:13. > :03:20.policy, and I am saying we have along history of uproar monarchy
:03:21. > :03:25.policy, which we certainly embrace with great enthusiasm. -- off a
:03:25. > :03:30.pro-Iraqi policy. Stirling - policy is now the pound,
:03:30. > :03:35.but it was not ever thus. The euro was once the preferred option. When
:03:35. > :03:38.did it change? Or did it change officially?
:03:38. > :03:42.Things have changed substantially. When the facts change, you change
:03:42. > :03:46.your mind, you did -- changed her mind for what is right for the day.
:03:46. > :03:51.What is right for today is the support for the optimal currency
:03:51. > :03:55.area. Wealth fear - what would Scotland's
:03:55. > :04:01.welfare system look like? With for the -- would free prescriptions and
:04:01. > :04:05.pensioner travel stay? The things that have come to find
:04:05. > :04:10.the benefits of having a Parliament in Scotland - free personal care
:04:10. > :04:13.and the freedom for fair -- freedom of fear for our Elder Lake of
:04:13. > :04:18.having a personal care guarantee, the ability to travel, the rights
:04:18. > :04:25.of young people to free education, the rights of all of us to have a
:04:25. > :04:28.health service free at the point of need - these are vital social games
:04:28. > :04:36.-- these fatal social gains that have defined the Parliament are now
:04:36. > :04:39.at risk. Not because we see so, but because our opponents say so.
:04:39. > :04:45.Defence - this has been one of the most controversial policy U-turns
:04:45. > :04:49.in recent times. Traditionally, the party has opposed NATO as well as
:04:49. > :04:53.nuclear weapons. Many members are still against it and made this
:04:53. > :04:57.clear at the conference. A we can agree with friends and
:04:57. > :05:01.neighbours like Denmark and Norway that Scotland's position makes it
:05:01. > :05:04.in their interests and our interests to be part of a mutual
:05:04. > :05:08.defence organisation on and on nuclear bases.
:05:08. > :05:14.A in two years' time, what the electorate will want is to know
:05:14. > :05:19.where the SNP want to take Scotland, not what its policies are at the
:05:19. > :05:23.moment but its aspirations for the future. The vote for independence
:05:23. > :05:27.is for a new state, a new constitutional situation. It is not
:05:27. > :05:32.just about the kind of policies and SNP Government will pursue. To
:05:32. > :05:35.contrast that with where the United Kingdom is heading, it is not so
:05:35. > :05:40.much the detail alone people will be looking for, though that will be
:05:40. > :05:44.important, but the sense of direction - where are we going?
:05:44. > :05:48.am joined by three guests to discuss the future shape of
:05:48. > :05:52.Scotland with or without independent. I have no idea how
:05:52. > :05:56.they will vote at all. Professor Robert Wright specialises in
:05:56. > :06:01.demographics. Think-tank director Ross Martin specialises in public
:06:01. > :06:08.service reform. Economics Professor Professor Ailsa McKay specialises
:06:08. > :06:13.in equality and inequality issues. In three, and though we have seen
:06:14. > :06:18.the SNP shift policy -- Ross Martin, now we have seen the SNP shift
:06:18. > :06:22.policy on NATO, do we have a clear idea of what Annissa -- independent
:06:22. > :06:27.Scotland would be like? I think we have an idea of the pieces of the
:06:27. > :06:31.jigsaw puzzle, but not the nuts and bolts that would impact on every
:06:31. > :06:37.body's everyday lives. Public service reform is clearly going to
:06:37. > :06:41.be an area that need more detail. Professor Ailsa McKay, much of what
:06:41. > :06:46.the SNP has emphasised thus far has been about what will be kept - the
:06:46. > :06:52.Queen, Stirling, NATO membership. It is an odd place to start, isn't
:06:52. > :06:59.it? Bearing in mind the immense changes that what happened? Yes, I
:07:00. > :07:04.would like to see more emphasis on keeping the public sector and the
:07:04. > :07:10.changes that have happened in recent years have basically cut off
:07:10. > :07:14.a life-support system for many communities in Scotland, as recent
:07:14. > :07:18.evidence has indicated the levels of deprivation are increasing. I
:07:18. > :07:23.would like to see a real investment in a public sector that works for
:07:23. > :07:30.Scotland's economy. Professor Robert Wright, the debate is a
:07:30. > :07:36.binary 1, yes or law. Do you support the Union or opt for
:07:36. > :07:40.independence? -- Yes or no. Where does that leave the ideas that
:07:40. > :07:44.generate debate? That is a tough question, because there are some
:07:44. > :07:49.real serious problems that will be here after we become independent or
:07:49. > :07:54.not. For example, we will have to pay for the ageing population, the
:07:54. > :07:58.youth unemployment is a big issue at the moment, used on
:07:58. > :08:00.employability is a big problem. Restructuring at the higher
:08:00. > :08:04.education sector to make it stronger financially, these things
:08:04. > :08:10.will not go away and we have to think about how to actually do this.
:08:10. > :08:14.I don't think it will necessarily be any easier or more difficult if
:08:14. > :08:19.Scotland is independent, because these are big issues. Professor
:08:19. > :08:25.Ailsa McKay, do you sense there is an appetite for debating issues
:08:25. > :08:31.like the welfare system, like poverty? What are the pitch to
:08:31. > :08:36.decide in a debate like this? -- or are they pushed to the side. They
:08:36. > :08:40.are as an opportunity to have these debates and generate new ideas.
:08:40. > :08:44.The global financial crisis is a crisis of ideas. We do not want to
:08:44. > :08:52.go back to the economics that failed us. The Scottish Government
:08:52. > :08:58.seems to be explicitly Becky dies in the models they used to frame
:08:58. > :09:04.their economic policy is failing. - - the Scottish Government seems to
:09:04. > :09:09.recognise. They have the next few months to come up with some new
:09:09. > :09:15.ideas about the economy. There are new ideas and the a, it is just a
:09:15. > :09:20.question of whether people want to come from thin, I suppose. And how
:09:20. > :09:23.the two big parties in particular go about articulating that message,
:09:23. > :09:29.and how they Catt -- characterised the kind of Scotland Day want to
:09:29. > :09:33.see. We have seen Johann Lamont and the Labour Party moving in on the
:09:33. > :09:38.universal provision agenda, and at the same time coming from the other
:09:38. > :09:45.side we have seen Alex Salmond moving into words a lot of Labour-
:09:45. > :09:52.type language in his speech. -- moving in towards a lot of Labour.
:09:52. > :09:56.It will be quite an energetic fight. On that point, it is there a danger
:09:56. > :10:01.that so many of the issues that have to be confronted economically
:10:01. > :10:07.and in terms of welfare and all the rest of it just get left out?
:10:07. > :10:11.Absolutely, that is the real issue. Some of these larger issues we have
:10:11. > :10:15.mentioned here will be ignored because of the referendum. We know
:10:15. > :10:19.these issues will not go away, so we need the details of the policies
:10:19. > :10:24.they have sketched out recently. How will they attempt to address
:10:24. > :10:28.these problems either under the status quo or under independence?
:10:28. > :10:31.Hopefully, that will be part of the debate for the next to you and I
:10:31. > :10:37.have, but I don't know how seriously we will take this. A lot
:10:37. > :10:41.of things will have good change, and that is not a clever thing to
:10:41. > :10:45.do when you're trying to get someone to vote for an idea. That
:10:45. > :10:49.is one of the problems, isn't it? He were trying to get people on
:10:49. > :10:55.board if you are pushing towards a particular goal. It is tempting to
:10:55. > :10:59.say, I am not going to change very much here, just to play it safe.
:10:59. > :11:04.I've think there have been positive news in terms of change. It was
:11:04. > :11:10.quite a bold move in the last spade and and it has been in the last
:11:10. > :11:15.four Budget rent. The last on employment statement indicated a
:11:15. > :11:20.new and innovative approach. He did it change much, though? It is early
:11:20. > :11:24.days. The First Minister in your minister -- in your video quoted
:11:24. > :11:28.John Maynard Keynes. He also said that recovery is treating the
:11:28. > :11:32.symptoms, of what you need is reform. I would like to see a
:11:32. > :11:35.debate in the next 18 months looking at reform of our economic
:11:35. > :11:41.systems, changing the underlying assumptions that inform economic
:11:41. > :11:46.policy. Particularly regarding women and the economy. On that
:11:46. > :11:50.issue - reform. Is there any scope for that? Independence is not going
:11:50. > :11:53.to allow Scotland to do what it wants. They want to stay in the
:11:53. > :11:57.European Union, we are a small economy and affected by things that
:11:57. > :12:02.happen out with our shores. On the economy there are a limited number
:12:02. > :12:05.of things we can do a loan. However, there are some things we can do one
:12:05. > :12:13.a were warned that we can probably do better under independence. For
:12:13. > :12:18.example, immigration policy, we can do that better. Defence, it is
:12:18. > :12:22.impossible given a our sized, so it is trade offs. You talk about
:12:22. > :12:27.demographics. Just how great a challenge is that? How bad is that
:12:27. > :12:30.problem? I think it is the main problem, the main challenge. It is
:12:30. > :12:35.not a problem if you're prepared to allow people to have a low standard
:12:35. > :12:39.of living. We don't want that and politicians don't, because people
:12:39. > :12:43.with a low standard of living do not vote for you. People have free
:12:43. > :12:47.care, they have a favourable attitude towards immigration, these
:12:47. > :12:52.are all good things. It would work better under independence, but it
:12:52. > :12:57.is a massive financial challenge. Just how big? In terms of money? By
:12:57. > :13:00.I don't know, I have fared an estimate that the ageing app
:13:01. > :13:07.population in the UK it is the same as the cost of recapitalising the
:13:07. > :13:14.bike. -- the ageing population. Is the same as the cost of
:13:14. > :13:17.recapitalising the banks. One that point, you see that services are
:13:17. > :13:21.ripe for reform, presumably to address some of these issues?
:13:21. > :13:25.interesting thing is a lot of reform is happening under the radar.
:13:25. > :13:28.At local level, partly because of the electoral system we have in
:13:28. > :13:32.local Government, where all parties are in bed with each other, it is
:13:32. > :13:36.very difficult for them to criticise each other, so they can
:13:36. > :13:42.get on with the process of reform under the radar. That is actually
:13:42. > :13:46.happening. He yet, what we saw from Alex Salmond and from Johann Lamont
:13:46. > :13:50.is a very, very divisive debate now taking place on the future of
:13:50. > :13:56.public service reform. If we think there is going to be consensus on
:13:56. > :14:06.it, we can forget that. The MEB consensus on direction, but not
:14:06. > :14:08.
:14:09. > :14:15.presentation, and politics is 90% Her as we look to balance the
:14:15. > :14:20.budget, deal with an ageing population, is there a platform for
:14:20. > :14:25.a debate about it was fundamental ideals? Or are we seeing them shut
:14:25. > :14:30.down as we look at the wider debate?
:14:30. > :14:34.The wider debate gives us a platform for those issues. The
:14:34. > :14:39.point about the ageing population, only today a report was produced
:14:40. > :14:44.that indicated the gender gap in savings. It means that women save
:14:44. > :14:47.less for retirement. We know they live longer. They are saving less
:14:47. > :14:52.because of the squeezing of the public-sector. Women have been hit
:14:52. > :14:58.harder by the recession. The longer term impact will be felt by the
:14:58. > :15:05.Scottish economy. Do you see a need for higher taxes
:15:05. > :15:10.to address these issues? That is one particular route.
:15:10. > :15:16.Public service reform is another. There are many ways to skin a cat.
:15:16. > :15:20.But we must take everything seriously. The budget was for jobs
:15:20. > :15:23.and growth. That indicate we're still framing of thinking with a
:15:23. > :15:27.mainstream economic approach - despite the rhetoric about
:15:27. > :15:34.challenging and reforming of thinking. So there is a long way to
:15:34. > :15:39.go off. The SNP have shed some
:15:40. > :15:46.controversial policies. Have they found the mid-point, we admit
:15:46. > :15:49.Scotland lies? The aspirations of your average Scot?
:15:49. > :15:53.Regardless of their opinions it will be controversial and the
:15:53. > :15:57.situation of whether people like it or not. It is not possible to
:15:57. > :16:01.please everybody all the time. But you must be honest about tough
:16:01. > :16:04.problems that require tough solutions and the must own up to
:16:04. > :16:11.that. I am not convinced they are doing enough of that in the run-up
:16:11. > :16:15.to the referendum. There is time and the SNP plan to
:16:15. > :16:20.announce more detail for the next 18 months. What would you look for
:16:20. > :16:28.from them? For a reconnection of people and
:16:28. > :16:37.police. The SNP rose to power in the period from 2007 onward. -- a
:16:37. > :16:42.reconnection of people and place. That reconnecting, engendering a
:16:42. > :16:46.sense of civic pride and belonging, it is something that I think will
:16:46. > :16:52.come through in a fairly imaginative way from both of the
:16:52. > :16:58.camps. You talked about public service
:16:58. > :17:03.reform. If there is one thing they could do, what we did be?
:17:03. > :17:07.Take for example free tuition fees. You could take out either before of
:17:07. > :17:12.university -- for the year of university or six a year of high
:17:12. > :17:16.school. There is a pack disconnect between those two levels. You can
:17:16. > :17:23.strip out inefficiency and the system and that be a good marker
:17:23. > :17:29.for public services as a whole. Fair enough, we're talking about
:17:29. > :17:38.independence, but public services, schools, health care, quite often
:17:38. > :17:45.we take the easy path. We do not opt for tough, radical reform?
:17:45. > :17:49.Nor, I think we're quite radical. But it is time for all parties to
:17:49. > :17:53.embrace that challenge and think about what they mean by the economy.
:17:53. > :17:58.Moved beyond narrow and exclusive indicators like a growth as a
:17:59. > :18:05.performance measure for success. Use the framework and a more
:18:05. > :18:13.realistic way and apply that to public sector reform.
:18:13. > :18:20.Give us an example. Gross national happiness? That is a different
:18:20. > :18:27.matter. How would you quantify success in independence.
:18:27. > :18:32.It has to be home-grown. I think if we work realistically with it as
:18:32. > :18:34.opposed to having just rhetoric and political statements, and apply the
:18:34. > :18:41.National Performance Framework indicators to have a spending
:18:41. > :18:47.allocations, that would be a good starting point.
:18:47. > :18:50.If you take the concentration of town level, most Scottish towns
:18:50. > :18:56.need to rain and that there footprint and start to think about
:18:56. > :19:01.how we use town-centre as for different functions. -- bring back
:19:01. > :19:11.their footprint. We need to use time centres for social and
:19:11. > :19:16.cultural activity as well. I am not so optimistic. The next
:19:16. > :19:22.four a case will be extremely expensive. An ageing population,
:19:23. > :19:28.pain for independence, competition from Asia. -- the next four decades.
:19:28. > :19:32.For that you will need a government expenditure and more money.
:19:32. > :19:42.Increase taxes? Yes, they're going to have to increase taxes. It also
:19:42. > :19:50.makes savings where savings can be made. Seoul, look for savings, and
:19:50. > :19:57.public sector reform, etc.. But we need growth, because we need the
:19:57. > :20:01.money. Particularly over the next four decades.
:20:01. > :20:09.You ask if we are radical enough. I think if we are talking about and
:20:09. > :20:12.you discourse about what we mean from the economy and value, I would
:20:12. > :20:17.like to see the SNP and all political parties look at the
:20:18. > :20:24.management and care of the Scottish household.
:20:24. > :20:29.There we must leave it. Factual very much indeed. Before we go,
:20:29. > :20:36.time for a look at tomorrow's papers. The Scotsman, Fleet
:20:36. > :20:45.grounded after a helicopter ditches. That is the crash into the sea.