:00:02. > :00:12.not mean that if they came to a legal challenge they would
:00:12. > :00:17.
:00:17. > :00:22.On Newsnight Scotland tonight: a nuclear warning from a Unionist
:00:22. > :00:26.politician. Get rid of Trident and you will lose jobs and influence,
:00:27. > :00:31.says the Defence Secretary. Pure unbridled politics says one SNP
:00:31. > :00:35.politician. Of course cities. But what are they going to do about it?
:00:35. > :00:38.-- of course it is. The independence debate went
:00:38. > :00:45.nuclear today. The Defence Secretary came north and promised
:00:45. > :00:50.to spend �350 million to design a replacement for Trident. But, hang
:00:50. > :00:55.on, said Nick Clegg, we have not made up our minds on that yet. The
:00:55. > :01:05.SNP made up its mind a long time ago. It is no to any nuclear
:01:05. > :01:05.
:01:05. > :01:10.weapons even if we become members of NATO.
:01:10. > :01:17.Philip Hammond comes to the Clyde estuary to make an announcement
:01:17. > :01:22.that even his own coalition colleagues say is not new. He
:01:22. > :01:27.deployed familiar arguments for retaining Trident. Scottish jobs
:01:27. > :01:30.and international security. Today we are announcing the next �350
:01:30. > :01:36.million commitment to the development of the successor
:01:36. > :01:41.submarine, design and development phase. Insuring the project
:01:41. > :01:47.continues to make progress so that we will be able to make the main
:01:47. > :01:51.investment decision in 2016. SNP think that is a waste of money.
:01:51. > :01:55.I believe that the majority in Scotland do not want weapons of
:01:55. > :02:00.mass destruction in Scotland. We would rather spend the vast sums of
:02:00. > :02:04.money used to maintain the current Trident and if Philip Hammond gets
:02:04. > :02:12.his way would be used to institute a new generation of nuclear
:02:12. > :02:19.weapons... That would be far better used on schools and doctors. That
:02:19. > :02:23.is what I want to see public money spent on.
:02:23. > :02:27.Philip Hammond will never convince the nationalists. But of course
:02:27. > :02:33.that is not why he was here. Opposition to nuclear weapons has
:02:33. > :02:40.been a sacred tenant of SNP policy since the first submarine sailed up
:02:40. > :02:44.the Clyde. And for decades, this article of faith informed their
:02:44. > :02:49.policy on NATO. But then 10 days ago the SNP controversially voted
:02:49. > :02:55.for a U-turn on membership of the need to airlines. Informed in part
:02:55. > :03:02.by polling evidence -- nuclear alliance. When asked 75% said they
:03:02. > :03:07.would wish an independent Scotland to remain... You can do, you can do.
:03:07. > :03:12.When it comes to getting rid of Trident, the SNP are convinced
:03:12. > :03:17.their existing policy chimes with Scottish public opinion. A recent
:03:17. > :03:20.poll commissioned by the party showed 46% of people in Scotland
:03:20. > :03:27.want the Scottish Parliament to have more powers to bring about the
:03:27. > :03:33.removal of tridents from Scottish waters. 35% against, 19% do not
:03:33. > :03:37.know. It is a pleasure and an honour to give my first speech in
:03:37. > :03:41.contribution to what I believe will be a historic day, when we hear the
:03:41. > :03:45.first nail being hammered in the coffin of the British Government's
:03:45. > :03:52.programme of weapons for mass destruction. In the early days of
:03:52. > :04:00.the SNP government, MS Ps voted in vain to give the Scottish
:04:00. > :04:05.Parliament the powers to remove Trident -- MSPs. I think it is easy
:04:05. > :04:09.to exaggerate the degree to which public opinion in Scotland is
:04:09. > :04:16.necessarily as anti- nuclear weapons as the SNP often seem to
:04:17. > :04:20.presume. There are a couple of poll readings not that long ago which
:04:20. > :04:23.suggest opinion is evenly divided about Trident nuclear weapons
:04:23. > :04:30.systems being replaced. Slightly more people against than in favour
:04:30. > :04:34.but no clear direction one way or the other. International politics.
:04:34. > :04:38.Letter suppose a new Assembly Government in a newly independent
:04:39. > :04:43.Scotland orders the removal of nuclear weapons -- let us suppose.
:04:43. > :04:51.Where would it leave Scotland? discussion over Trident will be one
:04:51. > :04:58.of the major issues, because it is of fundamental importance to the
:04:58. > :05:01.rest of the UK. It is a political weapon guaranteeing the UK's
:05:01. > :05:05.presence at the top seat of international relations. My
:05:05. > :05:09.personal view is that there will be long negotiations. Washington will
:05:09. > :05:13.have an awful lot to say about this and bring huge diplomatic pressure
:05:13. > :05:19.to bear on the independent government of Scotland to ensure
:05:19. > :05:24.that the UK does not disarm unilaterally. And what would be the
:05:24. > :05:28.timeline for this? My personal view is that Trident will remain in
:05:28. > :05:33.Scottish waters if we become independent and tell the Trident
:05:33. > :05:37.system becomes obsolete and that could be many decades. A senior
:05:37. > :05:41.person within the SNP who was well qualified to talk about these
:05:41. > :05:50.things pointed at to me recently that the SNP has never put a time
:05:50. > :05:56.frame on withdrawal of weapons from the Clyde estuary. Philip Hammond
:05:56. > :06:02.says Trinant will be replaced and located on the Clyde. -- Trident.
:06:02. > :06:06.The SNP says it will not. In other words, politics not military
:06:06. > :06:12.strategy will ultimately decide whether Trident will be replaced
:06:12. > :06:18.and whether nuclear weapons will be removed from the Clyde estuary.
:06:18. > :06:23.I am joined now from Edinburgh by Bill Kidd, the SNP MSP and long-
:06:23. > :06:30.term campaigner against Trident. Thank you for joining us. The
:06:30. > :06:33.voters who would want an independent Scotland to have a
:06:34. > :06:40.stronger defence, what can you say to persuade them that should bar
:06:41. > :06:44.happen? I do not really know exactly what the premise is -- that
:06:44. > :06:48.should not happen. The defence in Scotland is enhanced by
:06:48. > :06:55.conventional defence. Not by Trident. Trident is an irrelevance
:06:55. > :07:02.when it comes to defence. It is not a weapon of Defence. It is a
:07:02. > :07:05.political toy. It is an excuse for Britain to situ the top table in
:07:05. > :07:10.international relations. And achieve absolutely nothing -- to
:07:10. > :07:15.sit at the top table. It has been described as the ultimate deterrent.
:07:15. > :07:24.No one wants to use it in first strike capability but it is there
:07:24. > :07:29.as a last resort. 911 in America proved the last resort is useless.
:07:29. > :07:34.-- 9/11. But could not be defended against by using nuclear weapons.
:07:34. > :07:38.That is the way the world is now. We are not in a cold war any more.
:07:38. > :07:42.We should be getting a peace dividend which we have not had. Now
:07:42. > :07:49.we are looking for an independence dividend which will be the removal
:07:49. > :07:53.of Trident and saving the vast waste of money that is planned by
:07:53. > :08:01.Westminster. He mentioned there 9/11. That was an attack by a rope
:08:01. > :08:07.terrorist group. What about rogue states? The likes of North Korea or
:08:07. > :08:11.Iran who are trying to develop them. Or states who already have nuclear-
:08:11. > :08:16.weapons who we cannot necessarily trust. Countries like Russia. Are
:08:16. > :08:20.you happy to do some in the face of that sort of presence? As far as I
:08:20. > :08:25.know, Russia is a trading partner of the United Kingdom and I do not
:08:25. > :08:31.want to call them a rogue state. I do not want to call China a rogue
:08:31. > :08:35.state in the way Cameron did just after coming back from there. This
:08:35. > :08:40.attitude is most dangerous. Unless we get rid of nuclear weapons and
:08:40. > :08:46.it is not going to happen tomorrow but unless we get rid of them from
:08:46. > :08:49.the world we will always be in danger of there being some kind of
:08:50. > :08:55.catastrophe or even potentially a war which involves nuclear weapons.
:08:55. > :09:03.We need to negotiate these things on the world scale. It seems to me
:09:03. > :09:11.the United Kingdom has no intention of doing so even though they are a
:09:11. > :09:15.signatory of the Non-Proliferation to three -- treaty. The SNP have
:09:15. > :09:22.joined NATO. But is a first strike nuclear alliance. You are going in
:09:22. > :09:27.the wrong direction. We have already stated that NATO is only an
:09:27. > :09:32.option should we remove the nuclear weapons. We will not be bullied
:09:32. > :09:38.into keeping nuclear weapons. an option? I beg your pardon.
:09:38. > :09:43.said NATO is only an option. No, I said... I meant to say that keeping
:09:43. > :09:47.nuclear weapons would not be an option and their fault if we were a
:09:47. > :09:52.member of NATO, as we are i the moment and continue to be -- and
:09:52. > :09:57.therefore if we were a member of NATO we would not continue to have
:09:57. > :10:02.nuclear weapons. That was stated at the conference last week. We would
:10:02. > :10:08.be members of NATO but not as a nuclear member. If you put a ban on
:10:08. > :10:12.nuclear weapons in Scotland's constitution as you wish to do, it
:10:12. > :10:17.would be a door, wouldn't it? Then there will be a question about
:10:17. > :10:22.whether NATO members, ships from other countries can bring their
:10:22. > :10:26.nuclear weapons into Scottish waters -- it would be a law. That
:10:26. > :10:30.would be a decision made by the government following independence.
:10:30. > :10:34.My opinion is that nuclear weapons being brought in to a country would
:10:34. > :10:38.breach of that law. It depends how the law was phrased of course. I
:10:38. > :10:43.would prefer it to be phrase that once we get rid of nuclear weapons,
:10:43. > :10:47.we would not invite them into a visit or settle here as was
:10:47. > :10:52.mentioned in your package. would you police that? Would that
:10:53. > :10:58.involve going on board some of the ships and checking them out?
:10:58. > :11:06.would involve a treaty and... It is well known which ships carry
:11:06. > :11:10.nuclear weapons. It is not boarding and searching military ships. But
:11:10. > :11:16.is not what would happen. We would know, everyone would know whether a
:11:16. > :11:20.ship was carrying nuclear weapons. It is not a secret that these
:11:20. > :11:24.things are carried around the seas. We would know this was being
:11:24. > :11:30.brought into one of our ports. There is a lot of uncertainty about
:11:30. > :11:34.this, uncertainty on what will happen to these weapons, the
:11:34. > :11:41.timescale for the removal from Scotland, membership of NATO, terms
:11:41. > :11:44.of membership, how we react with other countries -- interact. A lot
:11:44. > :11:50.of uncertainties and a lot of voters might be asking, I am not
:11:50. > :11:54.sure about this. There is only one certainty and that is that if we
:11:54. > :12:00.stay in the United Kingdom we will keep these weapons stationed in
:12:00. > :12:04.Scotland for 40, 50, 60 more years. Uncertainty is something which we
:12:05. > :12:09.are trying to iron out as much as we possibly can. What we have
:12:09. > :12:15.stated is that nuclear weapons will go from Scotland. On what
:12:15. > :12:19.timescale? Months? It potentially could be a number of months. I
:12:19. > :12:25.would reckon that internationally it has been suggested it could be
:12:25. > :12:30.some were just over the two-year mark. Someone said it might be
:12:30. > :12:36.decades. Stewart Crawford is saying it from a political point of view.
:12:37. > :12:42.We must leave it there. Thank you very much. Bill Kidd, SNP MSP.
:12:42. > :12:45.Today the focus was on the SNP's policy. Last week there were claims
:12:45. > :12:50.Scotland would not get automatic membership of the European Union.
:12:50. > :12:55.On both issues unionist parties have talked up what they claim is
:12:55. > :13:02.the uncertainty of the tour. Will uncertainty itself be a deciding
:13:02. > :13:04.factor in the referendum -- of it all? I am joined now from London by
:13:04. > :13:09.Joe Twynam, Director of Social and Political Research at the YouGov
:13:09. > :13:14.polling agency. And also by Professor Chris Carman of
:13:14. > :13:21.Strathclyde University. Thank you both very much indeed for joining
:13:21. > :13:26.us. To what extent are all of these issues of uncertainty starting to
:13:26. > :13:31.have an impact on the debates surrounding independence? People
:13:31. > :13:38.who are uncertain are the ones who are the big question mark, of
:13:38. > :13:43.Bisley. From these sorts of polls Bisley. From these sorts of polls
:13:43. > :13:49.that Joe has run and others... Obviously. The group in the middle
:13:49. > :13:53.who are uncertain where they are going to go... We are going to
:13:53. > :14:01.watch and monitor because we do not know exactly what points will
:14:01. > :14:06.influence them. That is an issue, isn't it, that there are many
:14:06. > :14:11.undecided voters in all of this? It is an uncertain world. Will people
:14:11. > :14:16.vote for independence without definitive answers on some of these
:14:16. > :14:20.big policy areas? I think we need to look at things in context. There
:14:20. > :14:25.is a lot of uncertainty surrounding many aspects. But a lot of these
:14:25. > :14:30.issues really are not the most important to the average voter and
:14:30. > :14:34.indeed the 50% of people less engage. They are not really
:14:34. > :14:39.interested in the intricacies of Trident or EU membership. Instead
:14:39. > :14:44.what they are interested in is the economy and we see from our polling
:14:44. > :14:50.that people think generally that Scotland would be worse off if it
:14:50. > :14:55.became independent. That is by a ratio of 2 1/2 to 1. They are also
:14:56. > :15:00.interested in whether they can trust an independent Scotland and
:15:00. > :15:06.whether it can be effective. These are important. Uncertainty plays
:15:06. > :15:13.into that and makes it difficult to unseat the status quo. Looking at a
:15:13. > :15:18.historical, -- historical context, generally speaking in developed
:15:18. > :15:28.democracies, they do not succeed because they are unable to overcome
:15:28. > :15:41.
:15:41. > :15:45.Is it enough to chip away at it? is not enough. I agree with what
:15:45. > :15:55.Joe said, it is the idea of trust, can we trust on them to govern
:15:55. > :15:56.
:15:56. > :16:02.itself? The SNP has done a good job of building up that narrative. Look
:16:02. > :16:08.at what we can do, we can deliver policy. Using the Scottish Election
:16:08. > :16:18.Study data, we can mud Bhagat Botha's from 2007, and compare them
:16:18. > :16:25.with voters from 2011. We know in 2007, people were voting for
:16:25. > :16:34.independence ideas. Looking at 2011, that relationship clubs around. If
:16:34. > :16:42.you thought the SNP was competent, you are more likely to think that
:16:42. > :16:46.independence is a good idea. that the key for the SNP, to
:16:46. > :16:52.respond to what is strong pressure from the Unionist parties to try
:16:52. > :17:01.and re-establish that narrative of trust? Absolutely. I would not try
:17:01. > :17:08.and none play the uncertainty game, if I wasn't -- if I was an SNP
:17:08. > :17:13.strategist. There is no answer to every single thing are what you
:17:13. > :17:19.would do. You have to trust us, that is what I have to say. The
:17:19. > :17:22.they don't have all the answers to all the little details. Instead,
:17:22. > :17:27.the voter has to trust them. If they can get that message across,
:17:27. > :17:33.it will be powerful. The difficulty that they have, they need to get it
:17:33. > :17:41.across to a large number of people. At the moment, the ratio of those
:17:41. > :17:45.wanting to stay part of the union is about 2-1. With that in mind,
:17:45. > :17:51.how far ahead the SNP have to get in order to stand a chance of
:17:51. > :17:56.winning this referendum? They have to stake a big claim over the
:17:56. > :18:06.course of the next year. Descartes began in the mid-thirties, where
:18:06. > :18:10.
:18:10. > :18:15.they are the moment. -- they cannot be down. Absolutely. They have to
:18:15. > :18:19.prove that people can trust them. They have to move beyond, look at
:18:19. > :18:28.us, we can do this. We can have the rubbish collected on time. They
:18:28. > :18:37.have to move on to be bigger narrative. Right now, the
:18:37. > :18:40.independence debate dominates everything, without other policy
:18:40. > :18:45.areas, bread-and-butter issues, it is difficult to break that
:18:46. > :18:55.narrative? It is. Particularly when you're struggling to recover from
:18:56. > :18:57.
:18:58. > :19:06.economic crisis. He makes it very difficult for them to build a case.
:19:06. > :19:14.That point, the one you made about the economy. The SNP would like to
:19:14. > :19:19.Mel some of this down, but it is proving hard to do it on EU
:19:19. > :19:24.membership, keeping the pound, keeping the euro. How do they get
:19:25. > :19:33.around that? That seems to be a fundamental issue. It plays into
:19:33. > :19:40.the uncertainty. What they need to do is focus less on the details,
:19:40. > :19:49.such as the euro, or interest rates, or funding on taxation, and instead,
:19:49. > :19:53.focus on these broader ideas. To say, we are competent, we are
:19:53. > :20:03.effective. If they are able to win over an economic competence
:20:03. > :20:08.argument, the mind the shy ones matter -- the small matters won't
:20:08. > :20:12.matter. If you asked the people of Scotland, indeed the whole of Great
:20:12. > :20:18.Britain, what the most important issues are at the moment, based say
:20:18. > :20:26.it is the economy. That is chosen by 80% of people. -- they say it is
:20:26. > :20:34.the economy. It is not the best of times to hold a referendum. It is
:20:34. > :20:38.the most difficult of times. That is an important point. It is a long
:20:38. > :20:46.haul, a week is a long time in politics, and two years is a really
:20:46. > :20:50.long time. The SNP have a long way to go, and a lot to do. Alex
:20:50. > :20:59.Salmond is famous for his intellect, and the shrewdness as a political
:21:00. > :21:05.operator. He may be able to make a change in fortunes. They looked
:21:05. > :21:10.unlikely at the moment. On that basis, are there some of the SNP
:21:10. > :21:17.while wondering whether now is not the right time to be holding a
:21:17. > :21:24.referendum? I am sure they are being told, stay calm, keep your
:21:24. > :21:30.powder dry. It is OK, two years, one week is a long time, two years
:21:30. > :21:37.is a very long time. There is a lot of time to make this case. They
:21:38. > :21:47.have to figure out a strategy for going ahead. We must leave it there.
:21:48. > :21:51.
:21:51. > :22:01.A look at the papers. Obama sends in troops. Daily Telegraph, child
:22:01. > :22:02.
:22:02. > :22:05.benefit cuts may be illegal. The Times, states of emergency.
:22:05. > :22:08.That's all from me. If you want to see the programme again it's on the