:00:11. > :00:15.In this country, we do not have Tonight on Newsnight Scotland: Well,
:00:15. > :00:18.unemployment across the UK may be falling, here it's going up. And
:00:18. > :00:21.the number of people in jobs is falling here faster than anywhere
:00:21. > :00:27.else in the UK. So what's going on? And do politicians have any
:00:27. > :00:30.sensible ideas for what to do about it? Good evening. UK unemployment
:00:30. > :00:33.is looking better, as you've just heard, though some of that may be
:00:33. > :00:36.attributable to the tail end of the Olympic bounce, but Scotland's
:00:36. > :00:40.figures are still getting worse. Count in an unexpected jump in
:00:40. > :00:43.inflation and dismal retail sales. And don't be too surprised the
:00:43. > :00:53.Governor of the Bank of England is cutting his growth forecast...
:00:53. > :00:56.
:00:57. > :01:02.Today's economic news is like the weather - unpleasant, in you do not
:01:02. > :01:07.know when it will get better. The economy is still struggling, growth
:01:07. > :01:11.is sluggish, high inflation and unemployment in Scotland rising.
:01:11. > :01:18.The Governor of the Bank of England downgraded his economic forecast.
:01:18. > :01:22.The immediate economic outlook remains a challenging. Growth is
:01:22. > :01:26.sluggish and inflation above target. The road to recovery will be long
:01:26. > :01:31.and winding. But there are good reasons to suppose we are
:01:31. > :01:38.travelling in the right direction. The committee stands ready to do
:01:39. > :01:46.whatever it can to keep us on the right path. In July-September,
:01:46. > :01:53.unemployment in Scotland rose to 8.1%, whereas for the wider UK, it
:01:53. > :02:03.was down. Employment was down 27,000. Retail sales for October
:02:03. > :02:03.
:02:04. > :02:09.would down 1.3% - not good news up ahead of Christmas. Today's figures
:02:09. > :02:15.tell us the gap between the UK and Scottish figures has widened in the
:02:15. > :02:22.past quarter, and that maybe starting to diverge. But statistics
:02:22. > :02:28.show the any of this trend is that the unemployment rate is around a
:02:28. > :02:31.central point - about 8%. Some months it will be up, others put
:02:31. > :02:38.down. They could be two or three months and a road that will be
:02:38. > :02:42.different, but it is on a par with the UK. One month's figures are not
:02:42. > :02:48.important, but if it starts to lead to a trend, the warriors we are
:02:48. > :02:54.still in the middle of public sector job cuts, and that will
:02:54. > :03:01.probably lead to finance cuts. What has to happen is the private sector
:03:01. > :03:06.soaks up those job losses and then some more jobs. If the performance
:03:06. > :03:16.is better for one or two months, each government claims it is doing
:03:16. > :03:19.better than the other, but sooner or later, they have to defend their
:03:19. > :03:25.position. The Office of National Statistics Office us this graphic,
:03:25. > :03:29.demonstrating how the UK's regions race against each other. The main
:03:29. > :03:34.conclusion here is that the numbers change or the time, but still, the
:03:34. > :03:38.graphic is the same. There are concerns we are not have the worst,
:03:38. > :03:43.that this recession is unusually shallow. We do not understand why
:03:43. > :03:50.has been so shallow, but the Warriors, other factors will come
:03:50. > :03:56.into play, perhaps people were kept on in their jobs by companies that
:03:56. > :04:03.will be let go. Things might get worse. The First Minister is
:04:03. > :04:12.keeping a close eye on the future. UK unemployment fell by 50,000, and
:04:12. > :04:18.stands at just above 2.5 million. Unemployment across the UK is down
:04:18. > :04:23.by 49,000, but we know that 100,000 temporary jobs for the Olympic
:04:23. > :04:27.Games were created. The tragedy would be if the beneficial effect
:04:27. > :04:35.of the Olympics was used as a pretext for not taking action
:04:35. > :04:43.across the country. The ball balls are up, the jolly tunes are wrong,
:04:43. > :04:49.but today's figures give little Christmas cheer. They show a 1.3%
:04:49. > :04:53.dip in sales for October. However, this shopping centre does not
:04:53. > :05:03.reflect that. For some shoppers, a war is about employment impact on
:05:03. > :05:09.
:05:09. > :05:16.spending. -- warrior about. could be February or March before
:05:16. > :05:25.picks up. There are too many unemployed people are not enough
:05:25. > :05:31.jobs. The Government has to find more ways of creating jobs. Do you
:05:31. > :05:35.blame that on Westminster or Scotland? Both. They should be
:05:35. > :05:41.working together to create more jobs for people. My family is
:05:41. > :05:51.struggling to get jobs. It is not improving. I am not surprised at
:05:51. > :05:58.that. Who did they, or you, blame? Probably the Government. They are
:05:58. > :06:08.spending money elsewhere that could help people get back into work.
:06:08. > :06:10.
:06:10. > :06:19.you have periods of unemployment? Two weeks here, two weeks there. I
:06:19. > :06:24.work in scaffolding, so it depends on the weather. But be careful what
:06:24. > :06:30.you wish for - if you pick away at the details, you might not like we
:06:30. > :06:40.find. Sometimes, every silver lining has a cloud. It is not a
:06:40. > :06:43.
:06:43. > :06:53.foregone conclusion. If people got into more debt, because they wanted
:06:53. > :06:53.
:06:53. > :06:59.to spend money on Christmas, that is not a good thing. Not to put too
:06:59. > :07:03.much of a dampener on Christmas, I hope! Mervyn King, economists and
:07:03. > :07:13.the men and women on the streets will all be hoping for a little
:07:13. > :07:18.
:07:18. > :07:23.something extra from Santa this I am joined now by Ken Mackintosh
:07:23. > :07:33.and the SNP backbencher Dennis Robertson.
:07:33. > :07:35.
:07:35. > :07:44.Thief Dennis Robertson, would you like to hazard some explanation as
:07:44. > :07:49.to why employment is falling faster in Scotland than any other region -
:07:49. > :07:54.- Mr Dennis Robertson. Levels go up and down for various
:07:54. > :07:59.reasons. But the 100,000 jobs in the UK that we hear about and have
:07:59. > :08:05.been welcomed are probably as a result of of the Olympic Games.
:08:05. > :08:10.That might explain why unemployment was lower in some of the affected
:08:10. > :08:15.the areas in England, it would not explain why the rumble up -- the
:08:15. > :08:19.number of people in work in Scotland is falling. We are not
:08:19. > :08:24.entirely sure of all their reasons. But there are trends. If we look at
:08:24. > :08:29.the facts over the whole year we have actually been fairly stagnant.
:08:29. > :08:33.We heard in the film there, and I thought that the Economist today a
:08:33. > :08:39.fantastic job out auditioning for the Scrooge part in the Christmas
:08:39. > :08:45.Carol, but if we look at the trends for the whole year they are fairly
:08:45. > :08:51.stagnant. That is not brilliant, but I am a fairly optimistic person.
:08:51. > :08:58.The thing that I see his optimism for the future. We do have sectors
:08:58. > :09:03.within Scotland with exceptional employment. Ken Mackintosh, do you
:09:03. > :09:06.buy that? Not at all. It is worrying that the first reaction to
:09:06. > :09:10.these figures is to find some reason for explaining away the
:09:10. > :09:14.increase elsewhere rather than taking responsibility for what has
:09:14. > :09:18.happened here. If you are a parent with children you will be
:09:18. > :09:25.desperately worried, Laura young person looking for a job. These are
:09:25. > :09:28.anxious times indeed with little hope on the horizon. I am not
:09:28. > :09:32.asking for a magic bullet, but I do think that the Scottish Government
:09:33. > :09:37.should take responsibility. They take responsibility for the things
:09:37. > :09:42.that go well, isn't it about time they take some action?
:09:42. > :09:47.You are absolutely right, they tried to take credit, particularly
:09:47. > :09:54.for growing employment, which is now falling faster than anywhere in
:09:54. > :09:59.the UK, when it was going on. It is not clear it is their fault her for
:09:59. > :10:02.what is happening at the moment. Nor, and I am not be a one to say
:10:02. > :10:07.that it is their fault. I also think that George Osborne needs to
:10:07. > :10:13.change direction and his policy. But the Scottish Government can
:10:13. > :10:18.take action right now on procurement. Instead of sending
:10:18. > :10:25.manufacturing abroad, for example to China, when not make sure that
:10:25. > :10:30.there were small businesses here in Scotland benefit. RF we take the
:10:30. > :10:34.knowledge economy. One of the best things the government can do is
:10:34. > :10:37.invest in education skills of the workforce. That does not mean
:10:38. > :10:43.sending everyone to university, but it does mean training and to the
:10:43. > :10:51.best of their ability. This government has cut college funding
:10:51. > :10:56.by 25 per cent. On that point about education, Dennis Robertson. I
:10:56. > :11:04.think there are 5,000 fewer people in further education colleges than
:11:04. > :11:09.there were five years ago. Is that a sensible situation to have? I
:11:09. > :11:15.think there are 50,000 fewer than there were. I think that full-time
:11:15. > :11:19.equivalents, you will find that the numbers are the same. A full-time
:11:19. > :11:26.equivalent is an abstraction, the number of real human beings has
:11:26. > :11:29.fallen by 50,000. People are not counting... They are looking for
:11:29. > :11:34.ways to deflate the situation. What I am trying to say is that there
:11:35. > :11:40.had been very positive aspects taken. If we look at the fact that
:11:40. > :11:45.we have a youth employment Minister. She is bridging the gap between
:11:45. > :11:51.education and employment. We have the skills Academy, we have skills
:11:51. > :11:56.to Bellman Scotland. We have work going with the Scottish Enterprise.
:11:56. > :12:03.And Highland Enterprise. A significant amount is being done by
:12:03. > :12:08.the government. I am sure this is all terribly marvellous, but what
:12:08. > :12:13.about the situation where employment -- unemployment is going
:12:13. > :12:21.up here while it is going down in the rest of the UK? We had an air
:12:21. > :12:29.their situation where there is a a great deal of employment in London.
:12:29. > :12:39.We have energy sector in Scotland which creates excellent employment.
:12:39. > :12:40.
:12:40. > :12:44.Ken Mackintosh, isn't it... We are creating 100,000 jobs in energy
:12:44. > :12:48.sector over the next ten years. Isn't there a danger that you are
:12:48. > :12:58.in, Ken Mackintosh, that if you question their Scottish government
:12:58. > :13:05.
:13:05. > :13:07.you do not really believe the criticism. A you criticise the
:13:07. > :13:12.Scottish Government for doing things that you do not really
:13:12. > :13:15.believe would make any difference. I do believe that they would make a
:13:15. > :13:21.difference. Again, it is disappointing that the SNP will not
:13:21. > :13:29.even accept that because numbers are down from 380,000 to 300,000,
:13:29. > :13:32.that is 80,000 less people going to college. I am not saying it is a
:13:32. > :13:36.magic bullet, but what I am saying is that you can make a difference
:13:36. > :13:41.here in Scotland using the powers of the Scottish Parliament. And if
:13:41. > :13:44.you can choose the powers of the Scottish Parliament, if they SNP
:13:44. > :13:50.constantly go on about the fact that they need independence, why
:13:50. > :13:58.are they waiting for a referendum? For example investing in housing
:13:58. > :14:03.construction would get in economy going. But the budget cuts have
:14:03. > :14:12.stock this. Briefly, we are running a tough time. A on the procurement
:14:12. > :14:16.thing, there is a consultation out there which is very positive. 27
:14:16. > :14:20.per cent of employment is in small businesses. Last week we had a 10
:14:20. > :14:23.per cent increase since all businesses. We have the highest
:14:23. > :14:28.record of small businesses since the year 2,000. That is positive,
:14:28. > :14:34.that is going in the right direction. More needs to be done,
:14:34. > :14:39.no one says that it isn't, but we are going in the right direction.
:14:39. > :14:45.We have run out of times. Thank you. That is all from me tonight. I am
:14:45. > :14:48.sorry we had no time for the newspapers. Meanwhile, today is the