:00:02. > :00:08.its new Islamist Masters. The President has given these opponents
:00:08. > :00:10.new purpose. On Newsnight Scotland, the
:00:10. > :00:13.President of the European Commission celebrates a Nobel prize
:00:13. > :00:20.by ensuring a new outbreak of hostilities between the yes and no
:00:20. > :00:23.camps in the Scottish referendum. Jose Manuel Barroso says he's not
:00:23. > :00:29.talking about Scotland in particular, but that any newly
:00:29. > :00:33.independent nation would need to renegotiate its EU membership. Is
:00:33. > :00:41.he entitled to that view, and does it matter?
:00:41. > :00:44.Good evening. The President of the European Commission got his hands
:00:44. > :00:47.today on a Nobel Prize for keeping the peace across the continent. But
:00:47. > :00:50.clearly not for keeping the political peace here in Scotland.
:00:50. > :00:52.Barroso hit the headlines here, by telling the BBC that any
:00:52. > :00:57.hypothetical newly independent country would have to renegotiate
:00:57. > :00:59.membership of the European Union. Our expert panel will discuss the
:00:59. > :01:09.implications of today's intervention, but first our
:01:09. > :01:10.
:01:10. > :01:20.correspondent, Jamie McIvor reports. He has been looking at different
:01:20. > :01:44.
:01:44. > :01:53.The European Union, winner of the Nobel Prize for RPGs. -- piece. It
:01:53. > :01:56.has helped to bring lasting peace to Europe after two world wars. The
:01:56. > :02:02.latest comments from the President of the European Commission will
:02:02. > :02:07.hardly bring peace to Scotland. one part of the country, and I am
:02:07. > :02:12.not referring to any specific country, wants to become an
:02:12. > :02:18.independent state, of course as an independent state it has to apply
:02:18. > :02:24.for EU membership. That is obvious. It has to renegotiate its terms?
:02:24. > :02:31.Yes. Up is it renegotiating from inside as a member of the European
:02:31. > :02:36.Union or effectively from outside? We are a union of states are left
:02:36. > :02:42.there is the new state, of course that state has to apply for
:02:42. > :02:46.membership and negotiate conditions. I appreciate you're not talking
:02:46. > :02:55.about specifics but say at a country like Scotland chooses
:02:55. > :03:02.independence, it is like a new state making an app? It has to
:03:02. > :03:09.negotiate with the European Union as a new state will stuck what
:03:09. > :03:18.about the rest of the country at? Does it have to renegotiate?
:03:18. > :03:22.principle, at no. Needless to say, it is not as simple as that. Jose
:03:22. > :03:27.Manuel Barroso is the president of the European Commission but he is
:03:27. > :03:31.not a political president of Europe. The European Commission is the
:03:31. > :03:37.Executive body of the European Union. More than a civil service
:03:37. > :03:42.but not elected. The Council of Ministers consists of
:03:42. > :03:47.representatives of each of elected governments. In theory, that
:03:47. > :03:52.represents all the citizens of the European Union. Up in any case,
:03:52. > :03:56.Jose Manuel Barroso made clear he was not talking explicitly about
:03:56. > :04:04.Scotland but making a general statement about what could happen
:04:04. > :04:12.if part of any member state became independent. It would be equally
:04:12. > :04:16.applicable to Catalonia. There will now be discussions to see what
:04:16. > :04:22.impact independence would have on Scotland's membership of the year
:04:22. > :04:28.pean Union. We do not agree that Scotland would have to reapply for
:04:28. > :04:34.European membership. There is no reason to it Takeaway European
:04:34. > :04:39.citizenship from a country on a people just because the exercise
:04:39. > :04:44.their democratic right to self- determination. The SNP's argument
:04:44. > :04:49.is that an independent Scotland would be negotiating its position
:04:49. > :04:53.from within the European Union. There would then detox about the
:04:53. > :04:58.details of Scotland odd mac membership while still within the
:04:58. > :05:03.UK. This would cover things like the Budget and the number of
:05:03. > :05:09.political representatives in the European Union. The SNP has also
:05:09. > :05:17.argued Scotland would inherit all of the European opt-outs. Unionists
:05:17. > :05:22.would claim that his near assertion. -- me her assertion. There would
:05:22. > :05:28.have to be months of discussion about whether to join the euro or
:05:28. > :05:33.rabbit border patrol. This would be very damaging for Scotland.
:05:33. > :05:40.Scottish membership of the European Union is important to the modern
:05:40. > :05:50.SNP. Even in the 1980s, the party's policy was to collect of what was
:05:50. > :05:55.
:05:55. > :06:02.then the EC. -- EEC. By the 1990s, the mantra was Scotland in Europe.
:06:02. > :06:06.In a sense, today's comments do not move the debate on to new territory.
:06:06. > :06:13.It simply means Jose Manuel Barroso was more explicit on-camera than
:06:13. > :06:18.before. One risk to the SNP is that this intervention could undermine
:06:19. > :06:28.attempts to reassure voters of what he's vote for independence would
:06:28. > :06:32.mean. A place in Europe may not be taken for granted.
:06:32. > :06:35.I'm joined now by Alan Trench, of the Constitution Unit at UCL, who's
:06:35. > :06:37.in London. Here, we have Professor Drew Scott, of Edinburgh
:06:37. > :06:46.University's Europa Institute, and Professor John Curtice of
:06:46. > :06:50.Strathclyde University. Thank you all for joining us. The
:06:51. > :06:58.position is pretty Clare - at any new independent country would have
:06:58. > :07:07.to apply to join the European Union. Se correct to say that?
:07:07. > :07:12.institution that was not mentioned in your package was the court. In
:07:12. > :07:15.the final instance, given his comments, this would find its way
:07:15. > :07:20.to the European Court of Justice and it would be for them to make a
:07:20. > :07:26.ruling on this. Jose Manuel Barroso does not have the power to make
:07:26. > :07:32.this ruling. He will no doubt advise member states but what I
:07:32. > :07:37.find peculiar is that we all accept there is no provision in the EU
:07:37. > :07:41.treaty for this. Therefore there is no lot and it sticks me that he is
:07:41. > :07:48.making the law as he goes a long and I think that is a debatable way
:07:48. > :07:55.to proceed. Nothing like this has happened before so to some extent
:07:55. > :08:00.he is having to interpret existing treaties. This is difficult ground
:08:00. > :08:04.and I would encourage him to exercise more caution. There is an
:08:04. > :08:09.interesting observation to be made about Germany. This was a conundrum
:08:09. > :08:16.facing the European Union. Up we know that Margaret thatcher was
:08:16. > :08:21.very much against this. The European Union it found a way
:08:21. > :08:29.through this and absurd the requirements of the TT that the
:08:29. > :08:36.principal loss serious co-operation is that here too. A -- treaty. I
:08:36. > :08:42.think he is overstepping his competence. Do you agree with that?
:08:42. > :08:48.I would not say he is overstepping his competence but it is the Duke
:08:48. > :08:53.of the Commission President. He appears to be applying principles
:08:53. > :09:00.of international lock in what is a very tangled legal situation.
:09:00. > :09:06.you think he has got it right? There is some dubiety about it. Do
:09:06. > :09:11.you think he has got it wrong or are things just muddled? Things are
:09:11. > :09:13.very muddled. There are lots of political pressures on the
:09:13. > :09:23.Parliament because it is dealing with the huge crisis in the
:09:23. > :09:28.eurozone. There is also talk immediate and pressing matters of
:09:28. > :09:36.the situation in Catalonia's which seems much more fevered and more
:09:37. > :09:40.pressing than in the UK will stuck up -- the UK. I have no doubt the
:09:40. > :09:45.Spanish government will be explaining its concerns very
:09:45. > :09:50.directly to the commission and two other members of the council. A
:09:50. > :10:00.much more messy situation there up where Catalonia up is moving
:10:00. > :10:05.towards some kind of referendum. To what extent it is the president
:10:06. > :10:10.speaking really about Catalonia a? He is talking about the situation
:10:10. > :10:19.in the abstract that the commission would really rather not face, I
:10:19. > :10:26.expect. The situation with places like Catalonia at is that it is
:10:26. > :10:30.particularly difficult. I suspect that for Scotland, these are issues
:10:30. > :10:34.that would be resolved in the process of negotiation but those
:10:34. > :10:42.negotiations can only take place after their referendum assuming
:10:42. > :10:50.there was a vote for independence. This cannot be cut and dried before
:10:50. > :10:55.their referendum. The other point that Jose Manuel Barroso makes is
:10:55. > :11:05.that Scotland would in effect be on the outside in the effect of a...
:11:05. > :11:05.
:11:05. > :11:11.Of yes in the referendum. I do not accept that at all. The only
:11:11. > :11:17.provisions in the treaty are principles relating to the general
:11:17. > :11:26.principles of democracy and self- determination. It seems to be a
:11:26. > :11:30.rather rot policy to take it for a country within its jurisdiction. If
:11:30. > :11:37.it is chosen to use this democratic right that we would then be
:11:37. > :11:39.expelled from the European Union, I would find that rather strange.
:11:39. > :11:44.Even in an article 50, which is where the country wishes to
:11:44. > :11:48.withdraw, which as far as I am aware Scotland do not want to, but
:11:48. > :11:53.if there is withdrawal there is provision in the European Union
:11:53. > :12:00.that it should seek in a satisfactory situation for the
:12:00. > :12:07.continuing relationship with this country. Jose Manuel Barroso seems
:12:07. > :12:12.to be looking at immediate expulsion. I am released -- nearly
:12:12. > :12:16.questioning the legal basis of what he is saying. He is entitled to his
:12:16. > :12:23.opinion but it would be very nice to see the legal reasoning that
:12:23. > :12:30.contradicts the arguments others have made. That it issue about the
:12:30. > :12:36.rest of the UK as well, because his decision is that the rest of the UK
:12:36. > :12:42.would remain but Scotland would not. Even in the House of Commons, there
:12:42. > :12:46.paper has declared there are three possible situations, where either
:12:46. > :12:53.both are out or the UK is in and Scotland are out, but there is
:12:53. > :12:58.agreement that this is a matter of some debate. His assumptions need
:12:58. > :13:02.to be tested. It is a peculiar position for the president who
:13:02. > :13:07.stated two months ago that the commission would not speak directly
:13:07. > :13:17.on any member state's position unless the asked to, but it seems
:13:17. > :13:18.
:13:18. > :13:23.He jumped in with both feet and it stirs up the debate about Scottish
:13:23. > :13:28.independence immensely because it creates tremendous pressure now on
:13:28. > :13:33.the Scottish government to rebut this claim. It certainly does. Both
:13:33. > :13:38.my colleagues have said the legal position is not clear. Even if you
:13:38. > :13:42.accept that conclusion, that in itself is enough to cause
:13:42. > :13:45.difficulties for the SNP because the vision of independence that the
:13:46. > :13:50.SNP have offered Scotland is a vision of independence in Europe
:13:50. > :13:54.and it has promoted that on the basis that there is no doubt on
:13:54. > :13:58.Scotland's continued membership of the EU. We can argue about the
:13:58. > :14:05.position, but the the fact that there is a degree of uncertainty
:14:05. > :14:09.has been cast means that this is an argument they are happy to pursue
:14:09. > :14:14.because, from their perspective, anything that appears to cast doubt
:14:14. > :14:23.on the credibility of the arguments that the SNP have been promoting
:14:23. > :14:28.are for them hoping to say, if Mr Salmond and Mr Sergei and have not
:14:28. > :14:36.quite got it right on the European Union and it depends on
:14:36. > :14:41.negotiations, can you necessarily accept what the other things are?
:14:41. > :14:46.It is all adding to this perspective of trying to come
:14:46. > :14:50.across as independence uncertain. The problem for the SNP is not the
:14:50. > :14:54.substance of the matter, it is a questioning and casting doubt on
:14:54. > :15:00.whether or not they have necessarily told all the truth and
:15:00. > :15:05.laid out all the arguments. That being the case, we heard Alistair
:15:05. > :15:09.Darling talking about how there would be a drawn-out negotiation,
:15:09. > :15:15.about membership of the Euro potentially, the border controls
:15:15. > :15:21.and the like. In your view, do you think these issues are even
:15:21. > :15:25.relevant at this point or are they genuine issues to discuss? I think
:15:25. > :15:29.they are highly relevant, that they are too many unknowns. We really
:15:29. > :15:34.don't know what we are talking about and that is the problem with
:15:34. > :15:37.having a referendum that is supposed to be clear, final and
:15:37. > :15:41.decisive about Scottish independence when so much is
:15:41. > :15:46.necessarily going to be resolved in the other side of referendum in
:15:46. > :15:50.those no with the UK and other parties including the you, if there
:15:50. > :15:55.were to be a vote in favour of independence. That makes it
:15:55. > :16:00.terribly complicated. A lot will then depend on how strong the hand
:16:00. > :16:05.of a potential independent Scottish government might be. In those
:16:05. > :16:11.negotiations and how it decides to play that hand, for example, is it
:16:11. > :16:18.willing to trade other issues for support from the UK forces during
:16:18. > :16:23.Scottish membership from day one? Drew Scott, as far as this rout
:16:23. > :16:28.today is concerned, Nicholas sturgeon has apparently written to
:16:28. > :16:35.their commission and tried to open some discussions with Mr Barroso,
:16:35. > :16:39.can she expect a reply from him? For I hope so. The statements that
:16:39. > :16:44.President Barroso has been making deserve some probing and discussion
:16:44. > :16:53.and I am very delighted that that mood has been made. Is he obliged
:16:53. > :16:57.to have a discussion? President Barroso would probably say the
:16:57. > :17:01.European Commission and reminds us about solidarity and the budget,
:17:01. > :17:08.but this is actually about the citizens of Europe. I think he has
:17:08. > :17:13.a moral and legal of that -- obligation to enter in discussion
:17:13. > :17:21.to ensure that if this comes to pass, these types of uncertainties,
:17:22. > :17:27.which we know can be eliminated or heavily resolved ahead of 2014 or
:17:27. > :17:31.2016. So I think there is time for discussions to be entered into. I
:17:31. > :17:34.think there is a certain moral obligation, if not legal
:17:34. > :17:39.requirement, on the President of the commission he has now become
:17:39. > :17:44.such a player to put forward a detailed scenario that he would
:17:44. > :17:49.expect to be followed from his side in the event of a yes vote. I don't
:17:49. > :17:52.think it is credible to say Scotland will cease to be a member
:17:52. > :17:58.of the year and the enormous complexities that would give rise
:17:58. > :18:03.to with trade, citizens of other EU member states and their rights, it
:18:03. > :18:07.is not a credible position he is taking at the moment. That requires
:18:07. > :18:12.discussion. In the process I hope uncertainties on both sides will
:18:12. > :18:18.become clear. These are the uncertainties that Alex Salmond had
:18:18. > :18:24.hoped to avoid, by saying that he had legal advice saying we were a
:18:24. > :18:30.shoe in. My view is that Mr Salmond never indicated he had legal advice.
:18:30. > :18:37.If he had, he would have contravened the ministerial code. A
:18:37. > :18:41.couple of observations, one is the SNP's insistence on the idea of
:18:41. > :18:45.independence in Europe was crafted at a time when the EU was a more
:18:45. > :18:50.popular institution in Scotland and the UK than it is now. To that
:18:50. > :18:58.extent we can argue how far the substance of this issue as opposed
:18:58. > :19:02.to the credibility of their SNP will matter. It is not entirely
:19:02. > :19:06.clear that voting for the union is a guaranteed way of staying in the
:19:06. > :19:11.Union. The second observation is, remember the idea of having a
:19:11. > :19:15.single referendum on the subject of independence and that we would have
:19:15. > :19:21.the referendum, the negotiations, one in which the SNP has always
:19:21. > :19:24.insisted. We are seeing some of the disadvantages of from the
:19:24. > :19:27.nationalist point of view as opposed to the alternative
:19:27. > :19:31.referendum in advance of negotiations and another one
:19:31. > :19:37.afterwards. It means that uncertainty questions may played
:19:37. > :19:42.the SNP. They cannot simply say we will hold a negotiation and decide
:19:42. > :19:49.at the end of whether it is acceptable. You have looked at
:19:49. > :19:53.Spain quite obviously there and they are looking to reassess their
:19:53. > :20:00.relationship with Spain itself and indeed with the EU. What John was
:20:00. > :20:03.saying is quite right, isn't it? Well, there are many uncertainties
:20:03. > :20:07.everywhere. The Catalonian situation is very different from
:20:07. > :20:12.that in Scotland. If there is no agreement about whether there will
:20:12. > :20:16.be a referendum or consultation, which is a term now being used.
:20:16. > :20:20.What form that might take and he would call it. One thing that has
:20:20. > :20:24.been good about the way things have developed in the UK is that we have
:20:24. > :20:29.agreed ground-rules for the way these formal constitutional debate
:20:29. > :20:36.is to take place. There we must leave it. Gentlemen, thank you very
:20:36. > :20:42.much. Just before we go, a look at tomorrow's front pages. No
:20:42. > :20:48.surprises that the Herald Leeds on this. Sturgeon calls for talks on
:20:48. > :20:53.you after Barroso rebuff. The Scotsman, new setback for SNP. The
:20:53. > :21:00.Times, NHS to poor patients out of private care homes.