:00:16. > :00:18.On Newsnight Scotland tonight. Welcome to 2013, the year in which
:00:18. > :00:22.nothing much specific is expected to happen in Scottish politics.
:00:22. > :00:24.More damp squib than firework extravanganza. Or is that simply
:00:24. > :00:34.tempting fate, as both sides in the independence debate gather their
:00:34. > :00:39.forces and plan their strategies Good evening and Happy New Year
:00:39. > :00:42.from all at Newsnight Scotland. So 2013 is here and already David
:00:42. > :00:49.Cameron said a separate Scotland would be worse off as he praised
:00:49. > :00:52.Alistair Darling for his work in support of the Union. The SNP were
:00:52. > :00:55.quick to point out the Prime Minister couldn't remember the name
:00:55. > :00:59.of the Better Together campaign. Is this the higher level of debate
:00:59. > :01:02.they have all been calling for? In a moment, we'll discuss just where
:01:02. > :01:12.the debate might go, if anywhere, this year. First, Steven Godden
:01:12. > :01:14.
:01:14. > :01:20.reports on how this may turn out to Back to work in Scotland's towns
:01:20. > :01:25.and cities. Some of long faces to match the long nights. The
:01:25. > :01:32.decorations are down. The highlights of 2012 are now locked
:01:32. > :01:39.away in the archives. But the perennial question arises, what
:01:39. > :01:48.will 2013 hold? On the face of it, this year's calendar is looking
:01:48. > :01:56.fairly thin. Across the River Clyde, Glasgow's newest concert venue is
:01:56. > :02:06.opening in September. But generally, set piece occasions are thin on the
:02:06. > :02:21.
:02:21. > :02:30.Will it this year simply be a case of treading water or more history
:02:30. > :02:36.remember it as 12 months of real significance? Above all else, at
:02:36. > :02:41.Yes campaign has to give Scots who are either undecided or not really
:02:41. > :02:48.committed an absolutely convincing reason to get behind the yes
:02:48. > :02:53.campaign and start committing themselves to that yes vote. This
:02:53. > :02:59.has to be the year that they do it. If they do not, the game will run
:03:00. > :03:05.away from them and they will be left with too much to do. Key to
:03:05. > :03:14.the political debate will be the backdrop of austerity. 20 13 brings
:03:14. > :03:20.a big changes to the welfare system. -- 2013. The cumulative effect will
:03:20. > :03:29.be quite significant on the Scottish economy. It will affect
:03:29. > :03:36.the economy and individuals. It will have an impact on shops, jobs
:03:36. > :03:42.added will have a much broader impact than just on individuals.
:03:42. > :03:51.But whether it is the economy, politics or the dogs, concrete
:03:51. > :04:00.predictions about the year ahead are notoriously risky. 2011, who
:04:00. > :04:05.saw the SNP's landslide victory in the Holyrood elections? So no
:04:05. > :04:15.predictions, but perhaps and educated guess. Do not expect
:04:15. > :04:15.
:04:15. > :04:20.decorum up to win it the day. as an historic argument. Scotland's
:04:20. > :04:30.relationship with the rest of the world. That means of the arguments
:04:30. > :04:33.
:04:33. > :04:42.are going to be heated, exaggerated and passionate. Why anyone would
:04:42. > :04:44.want that passion to be taken out of politics I fail to understand.
:04:44. > :04:46.Now Newsnight Scotland usually indulges sparingly in crystal-ball
:04:46. > :04:49.gazing, but tonight we'll make an exception. I'm joined from
:04:49. > :04:52.Edinburgh by the journalist and commentator Iain Macwhirter, and by
:04:52. > :04:54.the pro-independence blogger Kate Higgins. And here in Glasgow is Amy
:04:54. > :05:04.Dalrymple, who is policy and research manager for Scottish
:05:04. > :05:09.Chambers of Commerce. Good evening and happy New Year.
:05:09. > :05:16.This is going to be a rather unusual you. No elections up to
:05:16. > :05:26.speak of it. How do you think the independence debate will frame up?
:05:26. > :05:26.
:05:26. > :05:31.I think it will be positive, respectful but that will not last
:05:31. > :05:37.much longer. This is the year when Scots are supposed to be making
:05:37. > :05:47.their mature decisions about the constitutional future. The SNP will
:05:47. > :05:52.be trying to give some detail with the referendum Bill and the white
:05:52. > :05:58.paper on independence in the autumn. But the Better Together campaign it
:05:58. > :06:02.will be getting on the road as well. Alistair Darling is coming up to
:06:02. > :06:12.meet opinion formers. We will also be having Treasury are reports, 12
:06:12. > :06:17.
:06:17. > :06:22.of them, showing how disastrous independence would be. This will be
:06:22. > :06:28.quite interesting. The UK Government will have that. We will
:06:28. > :06:36.have the white paper in the autumn. The two sides are trying to
:06:36. > :06:44.convince the undecided this year. Do you think that will happen?
:06:44. > :06:52.if we get more light and less heat. If we can move people away from
:06:52. > :06:59.polarised positions and him to mature, grown-up debate, the kind
:06:59. > :07:08.of debate we all want, then, yes, it is possible. To some extent, we
:07:08. > :07:14.have to take the political parties out of that. Passions do run fast
:07:15. > :07:20.and there is everything to play for. But I think we have seen positive
:07:20. > :07:25.signs of from the Scottish government in particular,
:07:25. > :07:31.particularly in the announcement about setting up a commission
:07:31. > :07:35.regarding the welfare state. That is only a good thing. When we get
:07:35. > :07:45.into discussing the facts about what kind of country we can be,
:07:45. > :07:55.post independence, or indeed if Scotland votes in no, that is
:07:55. > :07:56.
:07:56. > :08:01.something that everyone will have something to say and discuss.
:08:02. > :08:11.Speaking about immaturity of the debate -- about the immaturity of
:08:11. > :08:21.the debate, the passion, how do you think that debate will proceed?
:08:21. > :08:25.
:08:25. > :08:33.2013 it should be about see him at some meat on the bones. -- about
:08:33. > :08:38.seeing. It is actually looking quite positive just now. We are
:08:38. > :08:42.going to be encouraging both sides of the debate to retain that
:08:42. > :08:46.positivity and to start putting some substance around it. We have
:08:46. > :08:51.gone over all the arguments about how we are going to do it. We go
:08:51. > :08:57.that we have the referendum, that is when the decision will be. This
:08:57. > :09:02.will be the here put the game get in depth of -- this will be the
:09:02. > :09:10.here when we can get in depth over the issues. Will they get to that
:09:10. > :09:18.stage when we have these high- falutin, esoteric discussions?
:09:18. > :09:24.There will be lots of hours. There are a row was brewing over the
:09:24. > :09:34.question. -- there will be lots of Rose. There is a row brewing over
:09:34. > :09:34.
:09:34. > :09:42.the question. The SNP want a relatively small amount of money
:09:42. > :09:47.going into it, the Better Together campaign is in favour of more. The
:09:47. > :09:53.SNP are quite sincere when they say they are going to show more detail
:09:53. > :10:03.about what independence would mean. Last year, the best up a bit over
:10:03. > :10:09.
:10:09. > :10:19.the of the European argument. -- the messed. Alex Salmond said he
:10:19. > :10:20.
:10:20. > :10:30.had legal advice over joining the European Union again. Jose Manuel
:10:30. > :10:32.
:10:33. > :10:38.Barroso said they would have to apply again. I think there will be
:10:38. > :10:43.a lot more detail gone into. I do not think it is necessarily going
:10:43. > :10:47.to help the yes campaign terribly much, because Better Together are
:10:48. > :10:54.very pleased when supporters of independence go into detail, when
:10:54. > :11:02.they talk about a separate Scottish BBC, a separate Scottish Power and,
:11:02. > :11:09.that is when the voters see they are not sure of this. We are
:11:09. > :11:19.hearing there are going to be more debates. Does that engage ordinary
:11:19. > :11:19.
:11:19. > :11:23.people out there? Absolutely not. These are the kind of debates that
:11:23. > :11:27.fascinate the people involved in the programme tonight and everybody
:11:27. > :11:37.in the campaign, but most of the population are just getting on with
:11:37. > :11:39.
:11:39. > :11:44.their lives. The sooner we get away from the old arguments and on to
:11:44. > :11:51.the issues of substance, I think more people will be attentive to
:11:51. > :11:57.what is being said. Take the high politics out of it. People do not
:11:57. > :12:02.want to know about the billions in terms of the economy, what they
:12:02. > :12:09.want to know is their own personal finances and their own lives and
:12:09. > :12:14.how they will be affected. One of the arguments that the Better
:12:14. > :12:24.Together campaign has started putting out is about the
:12:24. > :12:25.
:12:25. > :12:35.uncertainty and independence. But there will be uncertainty in the
:12:35. > :12:36.
:12:37. > :12:46.economy and finances in the coming here. Actually, the right
:12:47. > :12:47.
:12:47. > :12:53.environment for the yes campaign to We have these esoteric discussions
:12:53. > :12:57.about Europe but surely we need these to get a certain points?
:12:57. > :13:02.Clearly. I am not saying they are not important. But they are not
:13:03. > :13:09.going to help people make their decisions. This is not what is
:13:09. > :13:15.going to help people vote. What our members want to know all about his,
:13:15. > :13:20.are they still going to be within a single UK economy or not? Are they
:13:20. > :13:24.still going to be in the European economy? Things about the currency,
:13:24. > :13:31.they want to know what the currency will be. It is a very difficult
:13:31. > :13:40.question to answer. I thought you were saying these are the issues
:13:40. > :13:45.that people are not interested in. The process issues are the ones you
:13:45. > :13:51.were mentioning earlier, the spending limits for the election,
:13:51. > :14:01.what the wording of the question will be. Personally I am interested
:14:01. > :14:01.
:14:01. > :14:04.in then as much as the next person. Our members are not. Those
:14:04. > :14:11.questions are about what Scotland is going to look like when it is
:14:11. > :14:16.independent. These are important issues, however much we must --
:14:16. > :14:23.might dismiss them. Let's broaden the debate are taking the economy.
:14:23. > :14:28.This is another central point for the debate, and we are looking
:14:28. > :14:32.forward to it as a critical issue in 2013. Kate, we will see some
:14:32. > :14:41.significant welfare reform issues. That will feed into the
:14:41. > :14:45.independence debate. The welfare changes... Do you think that could
:14:45. > :14:52.influence the debate up here? We have seen Universal Credit coming
:14:52. > :14:55.in and lot of people having a lot less money. Absolutely. I think the
:14:55. > :15:00.Scottish government and the yes campaign have cottoned on to this,
:15:00. > :15:05.that some of the change is coming down the line to the welfare state
:15:05. > :15:10.are quite frightening in terms of their scale, and they are only
:15:10. > :15:20.starting to come through in 2013. It is only early 2014 that they
:15:20. > :15:20.
:15:20. > :15:26.will really take hold. The better it -- Be Better Together campaign
:15:26. > :15:31.say we are better in the UK, but if the UK Government is dismantling
:15:31. > :15:36.the welfare state, and all of the things that make us feel British,
:15:36. > :15:41.suddenly there are no more reasons to stay. Welfare reform in
:15:41. > :15:48.particular, it will not just be the most vulnerable, there are
:15:48. > :15:52.households to rely on people on low incomes who will be very badly
:15:53. > :15:55.affected. The working poor, if you like. This is the background he
:15:55. > :16:05.shook the ball played quite largely in terms of persuading people to
:16:05. > :16:10.
:16:10. > :16:14.vote yes. What the people on the ground think? The House of Fraser
:16:14. > :16:24.was reporting good sales, new car sales are art. Do you think the
:16:24. > :16:25.
:16:25. > :16:30.economy will play a key role in 2013? -- car sales are up. What a
:16:30. > :16:35.lot of commentators failed to take into account were the unpredictable
:16:35. > :16:41.things, the eurozone crisis for example. They postponed any diff --
:16:41. > :16:46.decisions until April or May, so nothing will kick-off in terms of
:16:46. > :16:50.solving that crisis until early autumn. It will take a long time.
:16:50. > :16:54.These external factors are not going to go away. There will be a
:16:54. > :16:59.lot of pressure on the economy and we are not expecting any great
:16:59. > :17:03.shakes, but we are expecting bright points, we expect tourism to do
:17:03. > :17:08.very well, and this is where the Olympic legacy will kicking from
:17:08. > :17:17.last year. That was the shop window and it enabled people to see what
:17:17. > :17:24.we have on offer, tourism Wise. We will see bright points in terms of
:17:24. > :17:28.energy, food and drink, all of the Scottish economy, but it will
:17:28. > :17:33.remain a struggle for a lot of businesses. Going back to what cake
:17:33. > :17:43.was talking about, the welfare reforms and what effect that will
:17:43. > :17:44.
:17:44. > :17:54.happen -- have. -- Kate. In 2013 we want the government to recognise
:17:54. > :18:02.what SMIs can do. By 2013 we are meant to have balanced the books.
:18:02. > :18:07.It will be an important milestone for trying to step up to that. 2013
:18:07. > :18:12.does not look like many bright points for the UK Government.
:18:12. > :18:21.It is more than likely that we will see a triple dip recession, that
:18:21. > :18:26.the economy will lapse back in 2013. That is important because it means
:18:26. > :18:33.the next UK election becomes very doubtful for the Tories. It is
:18:33. > :18:38.beginning to look as if Labour will be forming the next government,
:18:38. > :18:43.particularly if the Lib Dems decide they are not going to play ball in
:18:43. > :18:49.a subsequent coalition after 2015. The prospect of a Labour government
:18:49. > :18:55.in future might undermine the case, in some people's eyes, for voting
:18:55. > :19:01.for independence. That would be to protect Scotland against Tory
:19:01. > :19:09.policies. It is not the same if Labour Robin Powell. On the economy,
:19:09. > :19:13.it will be very crucial to the bait if -- the debate. Absolutely, and
:19:13. > :19:19.there are more important political issues facing people in the present.
:19:19. > :19:23.Politics is important in the present as well as the future. If
:19:23. > :19:28.you can have an independence free week when we talk about the
:19:28. > :19:31.politics of the economy, jobs, money in people's pockets right now
:19:31. > :19:40.and the hardship that many families and small businesses are going to
:19:40. > :19:44.face, that would be welcome. I am afraid we have run out of time.
:19:44. > :19:54.Thank you. Just time for a quick look at the newspapers. The
:19:54. > :19:54.
:19:54. > :20:01.Scotsman, PM vows to win Scotts' Hearts and minds. In the Scottish
:20:01. > :20:09.Daily Mail, man who doubled gas bills set for 13 million pound deal.