:00:08. > :00:11.security measures have been taken? Thank you all very much indeed.
:00:11. > :00:20.Tonight on Newsnight Scotland. If there is to be a referendum on
:00:20. > :00:22.Europe, how will that affect the other referendum? There are growing
:00:22. > :00:28.demands on David Cameron to hold a referendum giving Britain the
:00:28. > :00:34.option to leave the EU. But would that help or hinder those in
:00:34. > :00:37.Scotland who are arguing for independence?'s And 20 years on,
:00:37. > :00:40.we'll look back at the Velvet Divorce between the Czech Republic
:00:40. > :00:44.and Slovakia, and ask if there are any lessons for Scotland. And we'll
:00:44. > :00:50.be across the news from Algeria and bring you any updates before the
:00:50. > :00:53.end of the programme. Good evening. The Prime Minister has postponed
:00:53. > :00:56.the speech he was due to make on Europe tomorrow because of the
:00:56. > :00:58.hostage crisis in Algeria. But David Cameron will soon announce
:00:58. > :01:01.his intention to renegotiate Britain's relationship with the
:01:01. > :01:03.European Union and to hold a referendum on the results of those
:01:03. > :01:07.negotiations. But how will that affect the referendum here, which
:01:07. > :01:17.is due to be held much sooner? We'll discuss that in a moment. But
:01:17. > :01:21.first, here's Jamie McIvor. It is the big decision that so much will
:01:21. > :01:26.rest on, a once in a generation decision that could affect all of
:01:26. > :01:36.our lives, or an issue that some politicians seem to be obsessed by.
:01:36. > :01:40.Yes, it is a big decision on Britain's future in the EU, so how
:01:40. > :01:46.will questions about that affect the in depends of debate here?
:01:46. > :01:51.Politicians on each side are already setting out their stall.
:01:51. > :01:57.need a new relationship with Europe. That is not just in the UK's
:01:57. > :02:01.interest but in Scotland's interest. More than 80% of the business done
:02:01. > :02:06.by Scottish companies is with the rest of the United Kingdom. It is
:02:06. > :02:16.important to retain that single market across the UK. That is being
:02:16. > :02:18.
:02:18. > :02:23.jeopardised by yes campaign. Given the increasing Euro-sceptic conduct
:02:23. > :02:26.of the Government in London it is a blow to the campaign and it helps
:02:26. > :02:29.the "yes" campaign because we have a positive message that we want to
:02:29. > :02:32.be part of Europe, we want to be involved with friends and allies in
:02:32. > :02:36.Europe and put Scotland at the heart of Europe, because it is good
:02:36. > :02:40.for business, good for the economy and that makes sure Scotland
:02:40. > :02:45.benefits from being a in the European Union rather than being a
:02:45. > :02:50.difficult partner in the package. But, cars courts any more or less
:02:50. > :02:56.likely to want to be in the UK than people in the rest of the UK? A
:02:56. > :03:00.recent opinion poll makes for interesting reading. Only about 170
:03:00. > :03:05.Scots to park. Across the UK, as a whole, it seems more people would
:03:05. > :03:08.want to leave the you if they got the chance, but in Scotland the
:03:08. > :03:14.numbers are the other way round, with a bigger number of people
:03:14. > :03:23.wanting to stay. That same opinion poll suggests that more Scots fear
:03:23. > :03:27.we would be worse off outside the EU, than better off. Few dispute
:03:27. > :03:33.that an independent Scotland would be welcome in the EU. The debates
:03:33. > :03:37.would be about the terms of membership. With an independent
:03:37. > :03:45.Scotland have Britain's current opt outs on things like the Euro, or
:03:46. > :03:49.what Scotland be treated as a new entrant? But what if the terms of
:03:49. > :03:53.Britain's membership of the you changed radically, before
:03:53. > :03:57.independence? I do not think it would affect Scotland at all.
:03:57. > :04:03.would be in the process of negotiating our membership of the
:04:03. > :04:09.European Union. We would be concentrating on negotiating those
:04:09. > :04:12.terms. Any changes to the rest of the UK's membership, I don't think
:04:12. > :04:17.would affect Scotland. The focus is on the "yes" campaign to answer
:04:17. > :04:21.these difficult questions. The broader debate about Europe has to
:04:21. > :04:25.be seen in the context that people in Scotland have pretty much the
:04:25. > :04:30.same interests as people elsewhere in the UK and a good deal for
:04:30. > :04:34.Britain is a good deal for Scotland. The prospect of the debate over
:04:34. > :04:39.independence coinciding with a debate on Europe opens up all kinds
:04:39. > :04:43.of prospects. Might some Euro- sceptics, minded towards
:04:43. > :04:47.independence, prefer Britain to take a step back from Europe, to
:04:47. > :04:57.Scotland in Europe? What about those who support Europe and the
:04:57. > :05:00.
:05:00. > :05:04.union? This debate could get even more complex. I'm joined now from
:05:04. > :05:06.Edinburgh by Iain MacWhirter of The Herald and Alex Massie of the
:05:06. > :05:08.Spectator, and here in the studio by Professor John Curtice of
:05:08. > :05:12.Strathclyde University. It is an interesting a slightly unanswerable
:05:12. > :05:17.question that if there is going to be a referendum on Europe, how that
:05:17. > :05:22.would affect the referendum here. Potentially, again change a. The
:05:22. > :05:25.unionist case for the past year has been that, the Scotland votes yes,
:05:25. > :05:32.we will effectively be thrown out of Europe and not allowed to get
:05:32. > :05:36.back in again without serious read up -- serious renegotiation. No it
:05:36. > :05:40.seems that Scotland stays in the UK it is more likely to be leaving the
:05:40. > :05:45.European Union, so there was a fundamental change in the posture
:05:45. > :05:49.of this debate and I do not believe that Scots are anti-European in
:05:49. > :05:55.anything like the way that people are and the south-east of England,
:05:55. > :05:58.and particularly in the UK Conservative Party. Euro for there
:05:58. > :06:02.is a very much Conservative preoccupation. You do not get it in
:06:02. > :06:07.Scotland where all the major parties are pro-European. The idea
:06:07. > :06:10.that Scotland would be better off out of Europe as far -- part of the
:06:10. > :06:16.UK is nonsense. Scotland is going to have to compete for inward
:06:16. > :06:22.investment with countries like Ireland, who are within the year.
:06:22. > :06:27.Alex Massey? In the first place the SNP are probably correct to think
:06:27. > :06:32.that a Conservative-led Government in London split by Euro-scepticism
:06:32. > :06:37.is likely to benefit the "yes" campaign. I think it is the sort of
:06:37. > :06:40.thing that creates a picture that makes it difficult for David
:06:40. > :06:45.Cameron to make the case for the union in quite the way that he
:06:45. > :06:49.would like to. There are a lot of borders in Scotland to would be
:06:49. > :06:53.wary of been associated with what is being seen as a little England
:06:53. > :06:57.Conservative Party. And there are differences in attitude towards
:06:57. > :07:02.Europe between Scotland and the English, but they are not quite as
:07:02. > :07:08.dramatic as he makes out. There is widespread disgruntlement with the
:07:08. > :07:12.European Union in Scotland. The difference is that, while Europe is
:07:12. > :07:17.an issue of enormous importance to a lot of voters in England, it is
:07:17. > :07:21.of much less importance to the average voter in Scotland. The
:07:21. > :07:25.degree of disgruntlement is widely expressed, but, the degree of
:07:25. > :07:31.importance attached to European issues is very different. And that
:07:31. > :07:37.is not surprising. We have our own constitutional argument to have
:07:37. > :07:44.that obsesses people in Scotland. What is the evidence? There has
:07:44. > :07:50.very limited evidence on attitudes in Scotland compared with England.
:07:50. > :07:54.We picked up 156 respondeds out of the British opinion poll. I put
:07:54. > :07:58.three opinion polls together but asked the same question, giving you
:07:58. > :08:02.about 500 people in Scotland and on average across the UK as a whole,
:08:02. > :08:09.in those opinion polls 66% of people wanted either to get out of
:08:09. > :08:14.the EU, or too loose and Britain's relationship with it, and the
:08:14. > :08:18.equivalent figure in Scotland is 56. There has been a little bit more
:08:18. > :08:24.pro-European than the UK, as a whole, but given that the UK is in
:08:24. > :08:27.a Eurosceptic mood at the moment you would have to prison that
:08:27. > :08:31.Scotland is predominantly in the Euro-sceptic mood. The one thing
:08:31. > :08:35.that is different is that UKIP, the principal vehicle through which
:08:35. > :08:44.this is being promoted, does not have the kind of support north of
:08:44. > :08:52.the border. What about Alex Massey's. That whilst people here
:08:52. > :08:56.might be as Euro-sceptic, it is not as important to them? What our
:08:56. > :09:01.debates about national feeling and sentiment and legitimacy and these
:09:01. > :09:05.are parallel arguments. In England the argument among us Euro-sceptics
:09:05. > :09:10.is, we do not think Brussels has the right to have a say in
:09:10. > :09:13.Britain's affairs, and it is very much the same argument as those in
:09:13. > :09:18.Scotland to say that we do not think London has the right to be
:09:18. > :09:23.involved in Scotland's affairs, and, because that that the the the
:09:23. > :09:26.Scottish nationalism is going on north of the border, that debate
:09:26. > :09:36.trumps the feelings about nationalism, south of the border,
:09:36. > :09:38.
:09:38. > :09:42.about Brussels. It is not just about opinion polls. If you got the
:09:43. > :09:48.chatterati in Scotland, to make a choice between little England or
:09:48. > :09:52.Britain and an independent Scotland in the European Union, I might just
:09:52. > :09:58.plump for independence, and that idea took hold in the debate, even
:09:58. > :10:03.if not based on opinion polls, that could have an important effect.
:10:03. > :10:08.That is a plausible scenario, it is certainly shared by Alex Salmond
:10:08. > :10:12.and Co SNP strategists. Who are rooting for David Cameron to win
:10:12. > :10:15.the last general election because they believe the Conservative fight
:10:15. > :10:21.in leg Government in London is useful for driving a wedge between
:10:21. > :10:25.Scotland and England. The one thing that might be said, however, is
:10:25. > :10:29.that senior figures in the business community would be very wary about
:10:29. > :10:34.any possible scenario that would develop, where by Scotland was a
:10:34. > :10:37.member of the European Union, but the rest of the UK was not. That is
:10:37. > :10:41.something that would concern Scottish business for
:10:41. > :10:48.understandable reasons and introduce an additional level of
:10:48. > :10:52.uncertainty into what is a complex argument. There are some voices who
:10:52. > :10:56.say that it would be better that Britain left the you, because
:10:56. > :11:01.Britain never has and never will share the fundamental values and
:11:01. > :11:06.project that most of the EU member states have signed up to, which is
:11:06. > :11:12.about moves towards more federalism. Do you think the SNP are signed up
:11:12. > :11:17.to that? In much the way that Labour say, look, we are
:11:17. > :11:22.fundamentally against what the Tories are saying on Europe, but we
:11:22. > :11:27.think, a referendum, not just now, but be SNP are not sure about the
:11:27. > :11:37.Euro, and about fishing policies. Is there any real intellectual
:11:37. > :11:38.
:11:38. > :11:44.difference between them and the They have had independence written
:11:44. > :11:48.into their founding programme. It is a point of political culture
:11:48. > :11:52.north of the border, There aren't the amp -- transmission belts of
:11:52. > :11:55.this Euro-scepticism you find in the south-east of England. That is
:11:55. > :12:00.mainly because the Conservative Party is irrelevant north of the
:12:00. > :12:03.border. The dominant parties here are the SNP and Labour and they are
:12:03. > :12:08.pro-European, broadly speaking. They certainly don't want a
:12:08. > :12:12.referendum on pulling out. As soon as you start having this referendum
:12:12. > :12:16.on the future of the UK in Europe it will have a fundamental effect
:12:16. > :12:26.on the campaign in Scotland because you will have European elections in
:12:26. > :12:32.May, 2014, months before the Scottish independence referendum,
:12:32. > :12:37.and there UKIP will be vying with the Tories. They all have a
:12:37. > :12:41.fundamental effect on Scotland. If you pull out of Europe you lose all
:12:41. > :12:44.the social protections that come with European membership and
:12:44. > :12:49.Julie's access to the European markets, that is crucially
:12:49. > :12:53.important in Scotland -- and you lose access. If breaking up is hard
:12:53. > :12:57.to do the Czechs and Slovaks made it look easier than most. They are
:12:57. > :13:07.peaceful split has been hailed as an example of a smooth transition
:13:07. > :13:20.
:13:20. > :13:25.but his political rivals have have It sits like a space source up on
:13:25. > :13:32.the bridge over the Danube into the heart of Bratislava. Called What
:13:32. > :13:40.Architecture is a reminder of Slovakia's communist past. That era
:13:40. > :13:45.was swept away by the tide of peaceful protests in Prague. The
:13:45. > :13:51.Velvet Revolution was soon followed by the Velvet divorce that split
:13:51. > :13:58.the country into two new ones. It was politicians, that the public,
:13:58. > :14:01.that decided Slovakia and the Czech -- Czech Bland should become two
:14:01. > :14:06.independent states. Unlike Scotland question was never put to the
:14:06. > :14:11.people in a referendum. Slovakia's Deputy Prime Minister says
:14:11. > :14:17.independence came when talks to find the central European
:14:17. > :14:22.equivalent of devolution Max failed. The decision to split the country
:14:22. > :14:32.came after it more than two years of painful negotiations, the aim
:14:32. > :14:32.
:14:32. > :14:42.was to find a model of common existence. It was called the best
:14:42. > :14:44.
:14:44. > :14:51.out of all about solutions. All the rules were agreed in advance,
:14:51. > :14:58.namely that Czech Republic inherited two-thirds of assets and
:14:58. > :15:07.liabilities, properties abroad, embassies. Based on population of
:15:07. > :15:11.territory? Both. And economy. It was fair. Slovakia had moored State
:15:11. > :15:16.Building to do it than the Czechs. Everything from the national flag,
:15:16. > :15:19.the national economy had to be redesigned. The man who led
:15:19. > :15:29.Slovakia to independence said overhauling an economy based on
:15:29. > :15:31.
:15:31. > :15:41.building unwanted army tanks was difficult. TRANSLATION: Slovakia
:15:41. > :15:49.was a bigger part of Czechoslovakia. And the effect of these changes on
:15:50. > :15:59.Slovakia will much heavier. There was a return back to the market
:16:00. > :16:00.
:16:00. > :16:06.economy. But also it took the thought each republic will live by
:16:06. > :16:09.what it produces by itself. Both continued to spend the same
:16:09. > :16:17.currency after independence but that arrangement lasted less than
:16:17. > :16:22.six weeks before both sides agreed to go their own way on that as well.
:16:22. > :16:30.On Tuesday we met, on Friday week announced the currency split
:16:30. > :16:35.publicly. On Monday morning the currency was split. It took five
:16:35. > :16:42.days. When Slovakia became independent its economy took a
:16:42. > :16:47.knock. By 2007 inside the European Union this country had become known
:16:47. > :16:51.as the central European Tiger, the global financial crisis tamed the
:16:51. > :16:57.Tiger, but there has been no double-dip recession here, and the
:16:57. > :17:01.economy is growing once again. general feeling is there was
:17:01. > :17:08.scepticism in the beginning, people were not convinced the split was
:17:08. > :17:13.the best idea, but right now we are doing very well and our friendship
:17:13. > :17:19.is better than ever. A great deal has changed in post-communist
:17:19. > :17:23.Slovakia, but while the robbers who wonder what might have been if it
:17:23. > :17:29.had not split from the Czech plans after 20 years of independence
:17:29. > :17:34.there is no going back. New is of the attempt to free
:17:34. > :17:41.hostages from the BP gas facility in Algeria has been coming threat
:17:41. > :17:48.the evening. Our reporter is that BP's headquarters in Aberdeen.
:17:48. > :17:51.Clearly this has been a day of very fast changing events. At this time
:17:51. > :17:59.at the end of the evening the full details of exactly what has
:17:59. > :18:05.happened over the last 36 hours is still unclear. What we do know from
:18:05. > :18:09.the UK Government is this operation, this Algerian operation took
:18:09. > :18:12.attempted to free some of the captors has now ended. Certainly
:18:13. > :18:17.for a good part of the day that was being described as an ongoing
:18:17. > :18:20.investigation. The Algerian Communication Minister said on
:18:20. > :18:28.local television there had been fatalities as a result of that,
:18:28. > :18:38.both in terms of foreign nationals and capitis, but also those who
:18:38. > :18:39.
:18:39. > :18:44.were holding them -- capitals. Much confusion still. One of the Scots
:18:44. > :18:48.he the First Minister talked-about has been freed and has been in
:18:48. > :18:53.contact with family back home. Beyond that we know very little but
:18:53. > :18:57.the mood of the Prime Minister and the Foreign Office changed
:18:57. > :19:01.significantly earlier this evening. They were talking about expecting
:19:01. > :19:05.great news. Family liaison officers will be breaking any news to those
:19:05. > :19:09.people concerned, probably this evening and any more information is
:19:09. > :19:14.not likely to come out until tomorrow morning.