:00:12. > :00:15.Tonight on Newsnight Scotland, more on the EU referendum debate. We'll
:00:15. > :00:18.ask the External Affairs Minister and the Deputy Leader of the
:00:18. > :00:24.Scottish Tories what effect it'll have on that other referendum
:00:24. > :00:34.campaign. And is support building for independence? The annual Social
:00:34. > :00:35.
:00:35. > :00:40.Attitudes Survey has some suggestions. Good evening. David
:00:40. > :00:43.Cameron has made a pledge to a referendum on Europe if the
:00:43. > :00:46.Conservatives won an outright majority at the next general
:00:46. > :00:53.election. An election that will be held after the independence
:00:53. > :00:59.referendum. How will the debate and Europe affect the debate here?
:00:59. > :01:03.It began in 1973 when Edward Heath took Britain into Europe. 40 years
:01:03. > :01:07.later, the relationship still dominates the thought of a
:01:07. > :01:13.Conservative Prime Minister. It is an issue that guarantees David
:01:13. > :01:18.Cameron and attentive audience. As the country sat down to breakfast,
:01:18. > :01:23.he delivered a much anticipated speech. The content came as no
:01:23. > :01:27.surprise. The next Conservative manifesto in 2015 will ask for a
:01:27. > :01:31.mandate from the British people for a Conservative Government to
:01:31. > :01:35.negotiate a new settlement with our European partners in the next
:01:35. > :01:42.Parliament. When we have negotiated that new settlement, we would give
:01:42. > :01:49.the British people are referendum with a very simple in or Howard
:01:49. > :01:53.tries. The plan is to give people their say on Europe. The stroke of
:01:53. > :01:57.a pen last October committed David Cameron to a more immediate test of
:01:57. > :02:01.public opinion. When it comes to Scottish independence he says his
:02:01. > :02:06.attitude is similar. We should trust the people, give them that
:02:06. > :02:10.choice. That is why there will be a referendum on whether Scotland
:02:10. > :02:15.stays in the United Kingdom. I passionately believe Richard and I
:02:15. > :02:18.hope it will. It is the same on this issue. You can put your head
:02:18. > :02:24.in the sand and pretend that somehow this is you will go away
:02:24. > :02:28.and that somehow events will turn out all right. -- this issue. That
:02:28. > :02:34.is simply incredible. Those on the other side of the independence
:02:34. > :02:38.debate pounced on what they saw as double standards. Why does the
:02:38. > :02:45.Prime Minister think the Scottish referendum process is too long but
:02:45. > :02:53.five years is all right? Back in Edinburgh, the theme of uncertainty
:02:53. > :02:58.was one that Alex Salmond want to. It blows at huge hole in the
:02:58. > :03:03.Unionist parties are denied. The Scottish referendum is next year.
:03:03. > :03:07.The European referendum he is talking about is in five years.
:03:07. > :03:13.There is painfully little detail on what he is trying to do. Some of it
:03:13. > :03:16.is bizarrely contradictory. First Minister was touring a
:03:16. > :03:22.technology firm in the new bridge that exports 40% of the microwave
:03:22. > :03:28.components to Europe. The boss says David Cameron's pledge to hold a
:03:28. > :03:33.referendum on Europe will not change how they do business.
:03:33. > :03:41.uncertainty will not help. There are strong trade links. There would
:03:41. > :03:45.continue. -- they would continue. On Scotland's most northerly
:03:45. > :03:51.streets there was less certainty. We made the need a little more
:03:51. > :03:56.autonomy in relation to our own situation. I think we should stick
:03:56. > :04:00.with Europe. There have been a lot of complaints about the European
:04:00. > :04:08.Union. I think David Cameron was quite right to let the people
:04:08. > :04:15.decide. Tied up in others are questions about what Scottish
:04:15. > :04:24.independence would mean for new membership. Nicola Sturgeon
:04:24. > :04:28.welcomed the European Union's neutrality. Were the first minister,
:04:28. > :04:36.this has been sticky territory recently. This morning, he sensed
:04:36. > :04:40.an opportunity. Those who have been arguing that at an independent
:04:40. > :04:47.Scotland makes our position in Europe on certain have been
:04:47. > :04:52.nullified by this statement. It comes from the convoluted politics
:04:52. > :04:58.on the banks of the Thames just now. David Cameron's speech introduces
:04:58. > :05:03.another layer to a constitutional debate fall of ladies. For the
:05:03. > :05:06.voters responsible for shaping the final outcome, it promises to be a
:05:06. > :05:09.busy few years. I'm joined now by the Minister for External Affairs,
:05:09. > :05:17.Humza Yousaf, and from Edinburgh by the Deputy Leader of the Scottish
:05:17. > :05:23.Conservatives, Jackson Carlaw. I had been trying to pay attention
:05:23. > :05:27.to David Cameron. I have been asking myself what exactly he wants
:05:27. > :05:31.repatriated from Europe. From all the Conservatives I have listened
:05:31. > :05:37.to today, I have worked out you want junior doctors to work longer
:05:37. > :05:44.hours. What else would you like repatriated? The Prime Minister
:05:44. > :05:48.identified a number of key areas. We're talking about areas. But
:05:48. > :05:52.areas are not specific things. Apart from making junior doctors
:05:52. > :05:57.work harder, what is it you would like to be able to do in Britain
:05:57. > :06:01.that you cannot do now as part of the European Union? I think the
:06:01. > :06:07.first thing is we would like more democratic accountability for the
:06:07. > :06:12.UK Parliament. We would like a more decisive say over issues that hour
:06:12. > :06:18.concerned with us. That is not specific. Give us an example. Be
:06:18. > :06:24.warned people in Britain not to have the protection of health and
:06:24. > :06:33.safety? -- do you want. Specifically it is his use like
:06:33. > :06:38.that. Like what, for example? What health and safety regulation should
:06:38. > :06:42.we not have in Britain? We went into a European economic Community.
:06:42. > :06:45.We believed that the European Union should be relevant to the people of
:06:45. > :06:51.Britain in terms of the economic environments in which we operate.
:06:51. > :06:54.We do not as a party believe that the wider dynamic of moving to a
:06:54. > :07:00.United States of Europe is in the interest of the people of the
:07:00. > :07:04.United Kingdom. That is what we want to prevent. David Cameron
:07:04. > :07:09.talked about repatriating powers. Give me a single example. He
:07:09. > :07:14.mentioned environmental legislation. Which bit of environmental
:07:14. > :07:20.legislation that Europe has would you like to see us not have?
:07:20. > :07:23.seem confused by this. I do not think other people are. We want a
:07:23. > :07:30.rebalancing in the relationship between the United Kingdom and
:07:30. > :07:37.Europe. That is what the public feels needs to be done. There was
:07:37. > :07:42.nothing specific? Other than junior doctors. Of course it is specific.
:07:42. > :07:50.It is specific that went the referendum comes, there will be
:07:50. > :07:55.every balanced settlement. Yes, you are already said that. Do you
:07:55. > :08:05.really think and the SNP there is no need to repatriate any powers
:08:05. > :08:06.
:08:06. > :08:10.from the EU? Yes, we will negotiate our terms. We have already said, we
:08:11. > :08:15.will negotiate our terms of continued membership. We will be
:08:15. > :08:19.robust in terms of defending our interests. We see ourselves as
:08:19. > :08:24.being an engaging partner. It is not a bad grandstanding, puffing
:08:24. > :08:28.out your chest threatening to repatriate powers. I remember
:08:28. > :08:32.talking to Alex Salmond on this programme and he told me all about
:08:32. > :08:38.how you would not accept the Common Fisheries Policy and he wanted it
:08:38. > :08:43.abolished, or at least changed beyond recognition? I have made the
:08:43. > :08:50.position clear. It is not about going in there and demanding
:08:50. > :09:00.repatriation of powers. You do not need to find out specifics from me.
:09:00. > :09:01.
:09:01. > :09:04.We have spelled out things like being part of a common travel area.
:09:04. > :09:09.Presumably you would like to give the people of Scotland the
:09:09. > :09:17.opportunity to vote? There is a referendum in 2014. We will spell
:09:17. > :09:25.out in the White Paper this year exactly... Would you agree with
:09:25. > :09:29.David Cameron in negotiations on Europe? Is negotiations are not
:09:29. > :09:33.even begin until 2015. The story about the referendum, and we're
:09:33. > :09:38.talking about the Scottish Senkel, is that absolutely these arguments
:09:39. > :09:45.have been blown out of the border. There is uncertainty about the
:09:45. > :09:48.Scottish referendum. You are reluctant to talk about specifics.
:09:48. > :09:54.You will have to negotiate Scotland's position in the European
:09:54. > :09:57.Union. You have said you do not want to join the euro. You want
:09:57. > :10:07.changes in the fisheries policy. Will you give the people of
:10:07. > :10:12.
:10:12. > :10:19.Scotland the chance to say yes or no to what you have negotiated?
:10:19. > :10:24.Because in 20th November 13 we will be spelling out -- in 20th November
:10:24. > :10:31.13 will be spelling out what we want to see. In this referendum
:10:31. > :10:37.campaign, will you be campaigning on the Yes or no side? I will be
:10:37. > :10:47.campaigning on the Yes side. It is the renegotiated settlement that I
:10:47. > :10:52.believe is right for the United Kingdom. Just as I can envisage a
:10:52. > :11:02.United -- an independent Scotland, I can envisage a United Kingdom
:11:02. > :11:03.
:11:04. > :11:08.Matip Europe. -- out of Europe. do not know what you want
:11:08. > :11:13.repatriated to the UK and you do not know if you will be campaigning
:11:13. > :11:16.for a Yes or no vote in the referendum? I am very clear that
:11:16. > :11:19.when I see the renegotiated terms David Cameron is able to secure, I
:11:19. > :11:23.would be clear whether or not I feel they have read balanced the
:11:23. > :11:27.decision-making process in the interests of Britain,
:11:27. > :11:33.satisfactorily, and in a way that meets the concerns daiquiri
:11:33. > :11:37.expressed whenever I go about. -- that I year expressed. It is about
:11:37. > :11:42.making sure we can compete in the European economy and not about
:11:42. > :11:48.Europe telling us how we should League highlights. Just to be clear
:11:48. > :11:55.from you, even if Scotland votes for independence, we do not get the
:11:55. > :12:05.chance to vote for whether or not we are in or out of Europe? Yes
:12:05. > :12:07.
:12:07. > :12:14.tries magna macro? Yes. We will be engaging partners within Europe.
:12:14. > :12:18.But why shouldn't we have the chance? If people vote for
:12:18. > :12:21.independence, you have a number of different political parties putting
:12:21. > :12:30.forward their perspectives for the first independent Scottish
:12:30. > :12:35.parliament. It may be up to the Conservatives to put forward the
:12:35. > :12:40.repatriation of powers. Do you think the UK could leave? Of course
:12:40. > :12:44.there is a danger. Your plan then would be for Scotland to be a
:12:44. > :12:49.member of the European Union, not a member of the euro and part of a
:12:49. > :12:56.currency sans with a country which is leading the European Union? --
:12:56. > :13:00.zone. Of course of the rest of the UK decides to opt out of Europe, we
:13:00. > :13:05.would have to look at how that would risk -- affect Scotland's
:13:05. > :13:15.relationship with Europe. He would have to look at it. There would
:13:15. > :13:19.
:13:19. > :13:24.What do you think of that, the idea that an independent Scotland could
:13:24. > :13:28.be part of a currency zone with sterling while the UK was not part
:13:28. > :13:31.of the European Union? I don't think it's likely. I feel the
:13:31. > :13:34.position curious that the SNP, who believe it's right for the people
:13:34. > :13:38.of Scotland to be able to have a vote on whether or not we are part
:13:38. > :13:42.of the United Kingdom. Let's remember the SNP came in in the
:13:42. > :13:45.year 2007 to office. This referendum is seven years of
:13:45. > :13:50.unSeine certainty after they came to office. Albeit they said it
:13:51. > :13:56.would be in a few years time. The SNP, I heard Alex Salmond said the
:13:56. > :14:00.referendum is next year. It wasn't Alex Salmond who delivered the
:14:00. > :14:04.referendum, just as on Scotland and the European Union, it has taken a
:14:04. > :14:08.Conservative Prime Minister to give the people of the United Kingdom a
:14:08. > :14:11.say on all of these issues. Thank you all very much indeed.
:14:11. > :14:12.Now, there appears to have been a significant drop in support for
:14:12. > :14:14.independence. Despite the independence debate
:14:14. > :14:17.moving to the top of the political agenda.
:14:17. > :14:20.Yes, campaigners have apparently struggled to persuade voters of the
:14:20. > :14:22.merits of their case. The annual Scottish Social
:14:22. > :14:25.Attitudes Survey also contains a warning for unionists.
:14:25. > :14:35.Researchers say there's a big gap between the powers people want
:14:35. > :14:36.
:14:36. > :14:41.Holyrood to have and the powers they think it has now. July 2012
:14:41. > :14:48.and the Olympic torch is touring the UK. It is when the organisers
:14:48. > :14:53.of the annual Scottish Social Attitudes survey began Thai work.
:14:53. > :15:03.They found that the "yes" side appears to be falling back. Voters
:15:03. > :15:04.
:15:04. > :15:10.were presented with the following 23% agreed, down from 32% in 2011.
:15:10. > :15:15.Equal to the lowest recorded since 1999. Interestingly, during the
:15:15. > :15:19.years the SNP was in opposition, 30% on average supported
:15:20. > :15:26.independence. During the years they have held power, that figure has
:15:26. > :15:31.averaged out at 26%. The argument that independence would thread a
:15:31. > :15:35.more just society seems not to be convincing voters. Whereas 19%
:15:35. > :15:42.thought the gap between rich and poor would reduce under
:15:42. > :15:47.independence, 25% expect it to increase and 47% think it will make
:15:47. > :15:51.no difference. There is comfort for the Nationalists. Look at the gap
:15:51. > :15:54.between the proportion of Scots who would like the Scottish government
:15:55. > :16:00.have more influence over how Scotland is run and those who
:16:00. > :16:03.believe it actually does. Asked about setting tax levels, 56% said
:16:03. > :16:08.most decisions should be made by the Scottish Parliament, when it
:16:08. > :16:14.comes to who should make most decisions on welfare, 64% said most
:16:14. > :16:21.of them should also lie with the Scottish Parliament. Given that,
:16:21. > :16:26.it's not surprising support for some form of defo max is still
:16:26. > :16:31.strong. There is one problem, you won't have the option of voting for
:16:31. > :16:39.I'm joined now from Edinburgh by the Director of the Scottish Social
:16:39. > :16:43.Attitudes Survey, Rachel Ormston. What should we make of the drop for
:16:43. > :16:47.independence? You have 23% and that is the same question that you have
:16:47. > :16:51.been asking for years, isn't it? That has gone down significantly.
:16:51. > :16:56.When you ask people - do they think the Scottish Parliament should run
:16:57. > :17:00.everything, 35 of them say, yes? Yes. If you ask the questions a
:17:00. > :17:04.different way you will get slightly different answers. What we would
:17:04. > :17:09.note about that is that actually there has been a similar size of
:17:09. > :17:12.drop on that question from 2011 to 2012 as well. On that measure too
:17:12. > :17:17.it looks like support for independence is certainly down over
:17:17. > :17:21.the last 12 months. Right. Taking into all the usual poll things
:17:21. > :17:26.about, you know, don't take one overly seriously, you are saying
:17:26. > :17:30.there is a trend here. The trend seems to be been backed up by
:17:30. > :17:33.recent opinion polls? Indeed. There has been a down ward trend across
:17:33. > :17:39.opinion polls in 2012. So far the poll that is have happened this
:17:39. > :17:45.year don't seem to contradict that. Do you have any insights into why
:17:45. > :17:47.the fall in shorp for independence seems to be happening -- support
:17:47. > :17:52.for independence seems to be happening that the SNP in favour of
:17:52. > :17:56.independence is in office. The opposite seemed to happen when
:17:56. > :18:01.their opponents were in office? of the interesting factors
:18:01. > :18:06.underlying this is that actually people seem rather less
:18:06. > :18:10.dissatisfied that the deal Scotland is get frgt union in the year since
:18:10. > :18:16.2007 than the years prior to. That people are more likely now to feel
:18:16. > :18:19.Scotland gets its fair share or more than its fair share of UK
:18:19. > :18:24.government spending. They are less likely to think England's economy
:18:24. > :18:28.benefits more from the union than they were in the pre-2007 years. It
:18:28. > :18:32.looks like slightly pe versely for the SNP one of the impacts of
:18:32. > :18:37.having a government in Scotland that is different in terms of the
:18:37. > :18:42.party from the government in Westminster and regularly standing
:18:42. > :18:45.up for Scotland's interests is that it seems to have made people rather
:18:46. > :18:49.less dissatisfied with Scotland's position within the union. I don't
:18:49. > :18:52.think there have been big changes in terms of who supports
:18:52. > :18:57.independence, have there? Let's run through it. In terms of age,
:18:58. > :19:04.younger people are more likely to? Yes. They are more likely to. In
:19:04. > :19:10.2012 again, it's own a minority of 18-24-year-olds, around 30% of 18-
:19:10. > :19:15.24-year-olds. That is quite a lot higher. Women less likely? Yes.
:19:15. > :19:21.Women are consistently between five or seven points less likely to
:19:21. > :19:26.support independence than men. about class differences? Those in
:19:26. > :19:30.professional occupations who are least positive about independence.
:19:30. > :19:35.Those in routine occupations intend to be somewhat more positive.
:19:35. > :19:43.does that mean? Does that mean as you move down these horrible number
:19:43. > :19:48.scales that support rises, is that right? Well, I suppose support is
:19:48. > :19:54.higher in what might have been classed as traditionally working-
:19:54. > :19:57.class occupations than what might have been traditionally classed as
:19:57. > :20:00.middle-class occupations. The other extraordinary result you have is
:20:00. > :20:06.that what most people want is the option they are not going to get?
:20:06. > :20:10.Yes. It's not actually true that most people necessarily - that
:20:10. > :20:15.devolution max is necessarily the single most popular option, what
:20:15. > :20:18.you find is because those who support independence would also
:20:18. > :20:23.support more devolution, if that was the only option on the table,
:20:23. > :20:28.it seems to be the only option that is capable of gaining a a majority
:20:28. > :20:32.support at this point in time. Thank you very much for joining us.
:20:32. > :20:40.We will discuss the referendum again on Monday in a Newsnight
:20:40. > :20:42.Scotland Special debate programme. An audience representing Scotland's
:20:42. > :20:45.ethnic minority communities will question leading politicians on
:20:45. > :20:47.some of the issues raised by the referendum and the prospect of
:20:47. > :20:51.Scottish independence. That's from 10.30pm on Monday. Now,
:20:51. > :20:59.That's from 10.30pm on Monday. Now, tomorrow's papers: Scottish backing
:20:59. > :21:05.for UK split down says -- split down, what we have been talking
:21:05. > :21:12.about. That is the survey we were talking about. The Ind pend