:00:11. > :00:15.living. Is that a good enough new normal?
:00:15. > :00:19.Tonight on Newsnight Scotland, by 2014 families will be feeling the
:00:19. > :00:22.impact of the coalition government's welfare reforms. How
:00:22. > :00:29.much will it influence the way they vote in the independence
:00:29. > :00:33.referendum? Whatever happens, should welfare be devolved. From
:00:33. > :00:37.April the UK Government will begin the main elements of their welfare
:00:37. > :00:41.reforms. All of the changes are expected to take four years to
:00:41. > :00:44.complete but halfway to the process is the Scottish independence
:00:44. > :00:49.referendum and by that time it is expected that the bulk of changes
:00:49. > :00:59.will be well under way. Could the welfare reforms have a significant
:00:59. > :01:06.influence on how people will vote in 2014?
:01:06. > :01:09.We would just get your pump now, give you your milk. 18 months ago I
:01:09. > :01:16.interviewed Claire for this programme. She and her partner
:01:16. > :01:21.Derek have twin girls, now aged six. One of them, Katie, has complex
:01:21. > :01:26.disabilities and requires 24 hour care. Derek works and Clare is a --
:01:26. > :01:32.a home carer. They describe themselves as the working poor and
:01:32. > :01:40.they say the changes will hit them hard. The benefits cap introduced
:01:40. > :01:49.last week will have an impact on us for the next three years. With tax
:01:49. > :01:55.credits etc, with inflation and the cost of living, they will be rising.
:01:55. > :02:00.With regard to our source of income, that will not obviously be
:02:00. > :02:09.increasing with the cost of living over the next three years. Claire
:02:09. > :02:13.helps to campaign for the carers in Scotland. When it comes to the 2014
:02:13. > :02:19.referendum, she says what people like her are looking for is detail.
:02:19. > :02:25.In an independent Scotland, with regard to reform, would he U-turn
:02:25. > :02:34.on what the Tories have brought in just now? Would he stop a bedroom
:02:34. > :02:37.tax, which will be coming into place in April? There are a lot of
:02:37. > :02:43.carers who are dependent on housing benefit who are going to be
:02:43. > :02:47.suffering with this tax. The entire UK well-cut -- welfare system is in
:02:47. > :02:51.a spin and it is unclear how many people will be affected north of
:02:51. > :02:56.the border but critics say it could be as many as one in three
:02:56. > :03:01.households, taking �2.5 billion out of the Scottish economy. All across
:03:01. > :03:06.Scotland it is not just people who are on health and unemployment
:03:06. > :03:11.related benefits, it will affect the working poor. People on low
:03:11. > :03:16.wages to store get help with the Brent. One parent earning more than
:03:16. > :03:20.�50,000 a year could lose all or part of their child benefit. To
:03:20. > :03:30.what extent should either part of the Independent's campaign target
:03:30. > :03:30.
:03:31. > :03:34.disaffected voters on welfare? income communities and households
:03:34. > :03:39.tend to vote less, even though they may have more of a stake in the
:03:39. > :03:43.outcome of an election. One exception is pensioners. Older
:03:43. > :03:50.people tend to have higher turnouts and vote on issues of pensions and
:03:50. > :03:54.benefits much more directly. It may be true that the poorer you are the
:03:54. > :04:03.less likely you are to vote, but this could -- could this be a
:04:03. > :04:07.motivating factor to drive people to vote? It will partly depend on
:04:07. > :04:11.people's evaluation of what the long-term consequences will be in
:04:11. > :04:15.terms of their position. Undoubtedly one aspect of that, for
:04:15. > :04:20.those people primarily on benefits, will be a judgment about whether or
:04:20. > :04:23.not in the long run they are likely to be better off under the policies
:04:23. > :04:29.of the UK Government or better off on the policies pursued by the
:04:29. > :04:39.Scottish government. I suspect at the moment most people will say, in
:04:39. > :04:42.truth I am not sure. Setting out a clear case would help. The SNP says
:04:42. > :04:47.that an independent Scotland would have a fairer welfare system. But
:04:47. > :04:57.how would they pay for it? In Europe governments are cutting
:04:57. > :05:01.
:05:02. > :05:09.their welfare bills. And that was before the euro crisis. Scotland is
:05:09. > :05:14.one of the richer countries in Europe and we would do well to do a
:05:14. > :05:19.system based on universality and equity, and we are not seen that
:05:19. > :05:24.with the cuts come from Westminster and those threatened by other
:05:24. > :05:34.parties here in Scotland, like the Labour Party. Four those who can
:05:34. > :05:35.
:05:35. > :05:44.should, those who can't we will always help. Four -- of those who
:05:44. > :05:51.can. People Macey independence as a chance to punish a perceived
:05:51. > :05:58.unsympathetic Welt -- Westminster government. -- people may see.
:05:58. > :06:00.think it would be a mistake to make these simplistic arguments a
:06:00. > :06:05.central part of the Independent's campaign because I think be better
:06:05. > :06:09.to go the campaign will benefit from it in the long term. The full
:06:09. > :06:14.impact of the cumulative cuts introduced since 2010 have not been
:06:14. > :06:23.experienced yet. When that does it will be an issue that comes more to
:06:23. > :06:33.the fore of political debate in the UK and in the referendum campaign.
:06:33. > :06:37.The yes/no campaign will need to take that into account, but at that
:06:37. > :06:42.I made it is an incomplete picture. I am joined by the chairman of
:06:42. > :06:48.report it -- of reform Scotland, the policy director for the centre
:06:48. > :06:52.Rolph public policy and one of the co-founders of Women for
:06:52. > :06:56.Independence. -- director for the Centre for Scottish Public Policy.
:06:56. > :07:00.Leaving aside the details of the welfare reforms from Iain Duncan
:07:00. > :07:05.Smith, do you think it is reasonable to do what he is trying
:07:05. > :07:09.to do? I think certain aspects of it make a lot of sense. But I don't
:07:09. > :07:14.think that was the issue that we were discussing here. The issue is
:07:14. > :07:18.whether or not to welfare is important enough to be done at a
:07:18. > :07:28.Scottish level and whether it will influence the vote in 2014. At
:07:28. > :07:29.
:07:29. > :07:33.$:/STARTFEED. If it is necessary to tackle the welfare system, it
:07:33. > :07:38.doesn't matter if you have more devolution or if you keep the same
:07:38. > :07:41.system or whether you have an independent Scotland, the issues
:07:41. > :07:44.Iain Duncan Smith is trying to tackle would have to be tackled.
:07:44. > :07:50.They would and some of the universal credit proposals make a
:07:50. > :07:54.lot of sense. I still get back to saying, the key thing and, and what
:07:54. > :07:58.the Social Attitudes Survey shows that almost two thirds of Scots
:07:58. > :08:03.want Holyrood to be involved in making the key decisions about
:08:04. > :08:08.welfare created in the way that's right for Scotland. Is that
:08:08. > :08:13.possible for that to happen? Without getting rid of the other
:08:13. > :08:18.aspect of welfare, which is that it's, what the economists call part
:08:18. > :08:21.of the automatic stabilisers. It just happens, if one part of the UK
:08:21. > :08:24.is doing badly, automatically money through the welfare system goes to
:08:24. > :08:28.that area, so we all help out. It could be Scotland, could be
:08:28. > :08:34.Cornwall or any other area. Could you devolve benefits to Scotland or
:08:34. > :08:38.indeed other areas of the UK and keep that? It's entirely possible
:08:38. > :08:43.to put that mechanism in place, as in many other parts of the world. I
:08:43. > :08:46.would go further in Scotland. We were sitting here in this city of
:08:46. > :08:50.Glasgow and the city authorities have no say over welfare payment.
:08:50. > :08:54.In order to tackle some of the social problems in Glasgow, surely
:08:54. > :09:00.you have to put them together with housing, with education and with
:09:00. > :09:03.the rest of the powers in the City Council. Right. What about, you're
:09:03. > :09:07.pro-independence, but what's your answer to this basic point about
:09:07. > :09:12.the automatic stabilisers, if people in Cornwall are doing badly,
:09:12. > :09:17.then automatically, not because of any decisions, effectively wealth
:09:17. > :09:21.is thrown from Scotland to Cornwall. If Scotland is doing badly it flows
:09:21. > :09:24.from Cornwall to Scotland. I'd have to agree with Ross actually.
:09:24. > :09:29.Regardless of the outcome of independence referendum, I think
:09:29. > :09:33.that you need to be in control of the levers of economics. In terms
:09:33. > :09:38.of welfare, in Glasgow and other areas of Scotland - I think what
:09:38. > :09:43.Ross is trying to say is that you could keep a British welfare system
:09:43. > :09:46.but devolve decision making, I'm trying not to get you wrong,
:09:46. > :09:48.devolve decisions on individual benefits to tailor to local
:09:48. > :09:53.conditions. If you have independence you wouldn't have a
:09:53. > :09:58.British welfare system. That's my preferred option. We have to arc a
:09:58. > :10:01.stark choice at the moment, clearly, we're going down on austerity
:10:01. > :10:05.measures. Year seeing a divergence between the Scottish and UK
:10:05. > :10:11.Government. In Scotland they're trying to offset some of the
:10:11. > :10:14.effects sts austerity. There have been discusses this week to offset
:10:14. > :10:18.them. In Glasgow you're seeing the effects of inequality already. I'm
:10:18. > :10:24.here to talk about inequality in women. Already, we're seeing
:10:24. > :10:30.effects of austerity bills. If you look at the Joseph Rowntree
:10:30. > :10:37.Foundation have done a study with the fiscal, Institute of Fiscal
:10:37. > :10:41.Studies have done studies and women are the most affected. What are we
:10:41. > :10:45.saying here? Are we just saying there should pbtd be any cuts to
:10:45. > :10:48.welfare at all? We're saying it's about priorities. Government have
:10:48. > :10:53.priorities. The priorities in the UK Government are not about looking
:10:53. > :10:57.after the poorest in society. From my perspective, the women in
:10:57. > :11:04.society, who are the carers, as your VT showed. I'm curious,
:11:04. > :11:09.briefly on this points, so, if someone said to you, look, it's
:11:09. > :11:12.perfectly right and moral for us to help people in Sheffield, as
:11:12. > :11:14.Newsnight have just been talking about, if they're doing badly
:11:14. > :11:18.through the welfare system. Scotland should contribute to that.
:11:18. > :11:23.You'd say what, we shouldn't care about people in Sheffield? That's
:11:23. > :11:27.not what I'm saying. At the moment we have an imperfect system. I
:11:27. > :11:31.don't agree with the UK welfare reform. The unfortunate part is
:11:31. > :11:37.that other parts of the UK have got a welfare system that they didn't
:11:37. > :11:42.vote for. I have every sympathy, I was watching in Sheffield, and I
:11:42. > :11:46.would, you know, at the moment, the system is such that I would
:11:46. > :11:54.advocate that the wealth, there is universality of benefits at the
:11:54. > :12:00.moment. I'd advocate change. A gree with Ross that there -- I agree
:12:00. > :12:05.with Ross for centralise -- because a central system doesn't work.
:12:05. > :12:15.would you favour keeping that,if you like, British automatic system
:12:15. > :12:15.
:12:15. > :12:25.and devolving or just getting rid of that system? At the moment
:12:25. > :12:25.
:12:25. > :12:28.there's a complete gudd le of welfare and taxes. So the point of
:12:28. > :12:32.welfare, local government is responsible for Housing Benefit,
:12:32. > :12:37.but other things to do with housing, like winter fuel, winter allowance
:12:37. > :12:41.is done at a different level. So at the moment, there are so many
:12:41. > :12:45.inconsistencies. It would be better if you're responsible for
:12:45. > :12:48.alleviating poverty in a certain area that all of the tools are
:12:48. > :12:51.given to you, including those of welfare. So those should be passed
:12:51. > :12:55.down to the right level of Government. There are certain
:12:55. > :13:00.things that would be done best at a Westminster level and certain
:13:00. > :13:06.things done best at a local level. The context of this, as everyone
:13:06. > :13:10.says, these welfare reforms are terrible, it's not entirely obvious
:13:10. > :13:17.that's what people in Scotland think. I think there's two points -
:13:17. > :13:21.one which arises from Ben's last point. There's an interesting
:13:21. > :13:25.constitutional conundrum that there's nothing in the Scotland Act
:13:25. > :13:29.which would forbid the UK Government directly devolving power
:13:29. > :13:33.for welfare straight to Glasgow and bypassing Holyrood all together.
:13:33. > :13:38.That's an issue which I don't think any of the parties in Scotland have
:13:38. > :13:42.yet tackled. I don't know if it came to anything. I think there
:13:42. > :13:47.were proposals to do something like that under the Blair Government.
:13:47. > :13:50.never came to anything at that point. There were pilot projects.
:13:50. > :13:54.They are in England. But there could be projects in Scotland. That
:13:54. > :14:00.would change the terms this afternoon debate. The second point
:14:00. > :14:05.which arises is the impact on the referendum. And the reverse of that
:14:05. > :14:09.first point. Elections are won and lost or whether people vote
:14:10. > :14:15.aspirationally or whether they vote in a negative way. So the coalition
:14:15. > :14:18.across the UK was effectively put together in a negative vote against
:14:19. > :14:22.the then Labour Government. It wasn't a positive vote for the
:14:22. > :14:26.Tories nor the Lib Dems. It was a negative vote which forced those
:14:26. > :14:30.two parties together. The difficulty for the Unionist parties
:14:30. > :14:35.in the better together campaign is that welfare cuts will be seen in a
:14:35. > :14:40.really negative light in Scotland. The easy message for the 'Yes'
:14:40. > :14:45.campaign, for Natalie and the like, will be that you can vote against
:14:45. > :14:51.us -- those negative cuts by voting for independence. I don't think the
:14:51. > :14:55.better together campaign have addressed that. Do you think, your
:14:55. > :14:59.side of the argument should come up with proposals as well? After all,
:15:00. > :15:03.if you won the referendum vote, that's amazing opportunity because
:15:03. > :15:09.effectively you could have a new welfare system and start from
:15:09. > :15:13.scratch. One of the things you have, is universal credit as proposed by
:15:13. > :15:18.Iain Duncan Smith. You wouldn't want to create a system with all
:15:18. > :15:23.the complexities that have grown up in the British system over tens and
:15:23. > :15:27.indeed hundreds of years. You'd say right, we'll do it simply. That's
:15:27. > :15:31.the beautiful opportunity of independence that you have a huge
:15:31. > :15:36.array of systems across the world and the UK that you can learn from.
:15:36. > :15:39.Independence is an opportunity to draw a welfare system which is
:15:39. > :15:45.reflective of the values of Scottish society, which is fairer
:15:45. > :15:51.and more inclusive. Obviously, Ben and credit to Ben, has been in
:15:51. > :15:56.favour of deefyo plus consistently, but talking about devolving welfare,
:15:56. > :16:01.that option is not on the table. You have a stark contrast between
:16:01. > :16:07.whether or not to continue down the path or choose fairness and made a
:16:07. > :16:11.model. The other side of this Ben Thomson, the Scottish Government's
:16:11. > :16:14.analysis of research done on this shows that families in Scotland
:16:14. > :16:18.will suffer less from Iain Duncan Smith reforms than anywhere else in
:16:18. > :16:22.the UK. Again, I come back to the fact that some of the things that
:16:22. > :16:26.Iain Duncan Smith has are very good. He is trying to simplify the system.
:16:26. > :16:30.There are something like 39 classes of benefits and he's trying to lump
:16:30. > :16:34.six of them together. He is trying to make it simple. We can learn
:16:34. > :16:38.from that. It comes back to the central theme that... Hang on, we
:16:38. > :16:43.need to leave that for another time. Thank you all very much indeed. And
:16:43. > :16:47.we will be discussing the referendum again on Monday, in a
:16:47. > :16:49.Newsnight Scotland special debate programme. An audience will be
:16:49. > :16:52.representing Scotland's ethnic minorities communities will
:16:52. > :16:56.question leading politicians on some of the issues raised bit