:00:08. > :00:12.status and it too becomes a museum Tonight on Newsnight Scotland,
:00:12. > :00:14.what's in a question? Today we found out what we'll be asked on
:00:15. > :00:18.the referendum ballot paper. We'll hear from the Electoral
:00:19. > :00:22.Commission's John McCormick, who chose the question. And we have an
:00:22. > :00:26.in depth interview with Yes Scotland's leader, Blair Jenkins.
:00:26. > :00:29.Good evening. Should Scotland be an independent country, yes or no?
:00:29. > :00:35.That's the wording of the choice we'll be asked to make sometime in
:00:35. > :00:38.the autumn of next year. The Electoral Commission tweaked the
:00:38. > :00:45.Government's chosen question on the grounds that it was leading. So is
:00:45. > :00:50.everyone happy? Steven Godden reports.
:00:50. > :00:54.In the debate surrounding Scotland's future, one of the most
:00:54. > :00:59.prominent questions has been the question itself. With so much
:00:59. > :01:04.depended on the answer, framing the correct words has been a minefield
:01:05. > :01:09.from the outset of nuance and semantics. The question the
:01:09. > :01:17.Scottish Government wanted to put to the people next year was, do you
:01:17. > :01:21.agree that Scotland should be an independent country, yes or Noel? -
:01:21. > :01:27.- no. The Electoral Commission today offered a revised proposal.
:01:28. > :01:34.Get rid of the phrase, do you agree? And ASDA shorter question,
:01:34. > :01:44.should Scotland be an independent country, yes or no? We asked people
:01:44. > :01:50.to fill out the ballot paper. Across the board, all across the
:01:50. > :01:58.board people said they felt do you agree might incline people to say
:01:58. > :02:01.yes rather than provide alternatives. The electoral
:02:01. > :02:06.commission had made a minor modification. I think their
:02:06. > :02:13.reasoning for that is understandable. -- the Electoral
:02:13. > :02:18.Commission. I have no problem with that. We now know what the question
:02:19. > :02:21.on the ballot paper will be. There was lots of evidence showing that
:02:21. > :02:29.how you ask the question can determine the outcome. The
:02:29. > :02:34.commission made it as neutral as possible. We all agree with that.
:02:34. > :02:41.This sense of harmony extends to finance. The electoral commission
:02:41. > :02:47.says spending by the Yes campaign in the 16 run-up -- 16 week run-up
:02:47. > :02:51.to polling day should be capped at �1.5 million. Him and each party
:02:51. > :03:00.Spence during the same period should be based on their share of
:03:00. > :03:05.the vote from the roast -- most recent Holyrood elections. There
:03:05. > :03:09.has to be a limit. We accept that for some reason the nationalists
:03:09. > :03:16.will spend more than we can. I think there is a matter of
:03:16. > :03:20.principle. They are write about the question. Oh well except their
:03:20. > :03:23.verdict on the amount of money. In relation to everything else, I am
:03:23. > :03:27.prepared to accept their conclusions because I want this to
:03:27. > :03:31.be fair and reasonable and independent. The commission also
:03:31. > :03:36.identified uncertainty about the implications of the outcome of the
:03:36. > :03:39.referendum. They will call for the UK and Scottish governments to get
:03:39. > :03:43.together and clarify the process that will follow the result as the
:03:43. > :03:46.most obvious source of friction. Given that the Labour Party and the
:03:46. > :03:49.UK Government have called for the full acceptance of the
:03:49. > :03:53.recommendations, will be Prime Minister give a commitment that he
:03:53. > :03:58.will work with the Scot has Government in advance of the
:03:58. > :04:03.referendum to come across up with this joint decision? Of course we
:04:03. > :04:08.will work with the Scottish Government. We will not renegotiate
:04:08. > :04:12.Scotland's exit from the United Kingdom. It is, frankly, his party
:04:12. > :04:18.that wants to break up the United Kingdom and it is for his party to
:04:18. > :04:25.make the case. The Scottish parliament still asked to rubber-
:04:25. > :04:29.stamp detail. But some key questions have now been answered.
:04:29. > :04:32.For the long campaign ahead, days marked by such broad consensus are
:04:32. > :04:38.likely to be few and far between. I'm joined by the Electoral
:04:38. > :04:44.Commissioner for Scotland, John McCormick. Presumably you were
:04:44. > :04:48.delighted with all of this? Did it pleased that people accepted the
:04:48. > :04:57.report and the recommendations so quickly. -- I'm very pleased.
:04:57. > :05:01.were you so keen to raise the limits of money? We did feel the
:05:01. > :05:08.Scottish Government's recommendation of �750,000 being
:05:09. > :05:15.the cap was Olu -- was on the low side. We took as a benchmark the
:05:16. > :05:20.funding levels at the last Scottish local authority elections, the last
:05:20. > :05:25.Scottish Parliament elections in 2011. We look but the elements that
:05:25. > :05:29.go into a campaign and could not see much to justify having a
:05:29. > :05:34.funding gap that was 50% of what you would have for a Scottish
:05:34. > :05:39.parliamentary elections. This is the same as a general election.
:05:39. > :05:45.What period does that cover? It is for the regulated period that we
:05:45. > :05:50.recommend it, 16 weeks leading to polling day. Until that point they
:05:50. > :06:00.can spend what they're like? Yes. There are a couple of caveats.
:06:00. > :06:05.During that period political parties are regulated. During the
:06:05. > :06:11.16 weeks if you spend money that has exceeded the unregulated period,
:06:12. > :06:16.it has to comply with the criteria. It is very clear. We do not that a
:06:16. > :06:23.lot of the funding and a lot of the money is spent in the last 16 weeks
:06:23. > :06:26.when people do not know. When I read your report, What leaked out
:06:26. > :06:32.that he was the passage where you talk about people wanting
:06:32. > :06:36.information. You say, "In particular, people wanted unbiased
:06:36. > :06:41.information about the pros and cons of each out, and what independence
:06:42. > :06:45.will mean in practice." Very few people raised questions about
:06:45. > :06:49.process. The reaction to that from both the Scottish Government and
:06:49. > :06:56.the Government of London today has been to talk entirely about
:06:56. > :07:01.process? The yes. It is very important to separate them. A lot
:07:01. > :07:11.of people expected the campaigns for either side to clarify a number
:07:11. > :07:11.
:07:11. > :07:15.of points. You say they want this on biased situation? They also
:07:15. > :07:23.wanted an objective piece of clear information about what would happen
:07:23. > :07:30.if Scotland voted yes and no. know it is not your job to
:07:30. > :07:33.recommend these things, but if you take the role that the Office of
:07:33. > :07:39.budget responsibility is supposed to play in the arguments between
:07:39. > :07:43.the main parties at Westminster, it sounds as if people would quite
:07:43. > :07:50.like something like that here on the referendum that could say to
:07:50. > :07:54.them, here is our analysis? We're stressing the importance of that in
:07:54. > :07:58.the report. That is why it is a recommendation. Ideally, both
:07:59. > :08:05.governments would prepare a joint stake and about what these steps
:08:05. > :08:10.would be after the result is declared. You say in the report
:08:10. > :08:17.that it is not the process, there is clearly a feeling from the
:08:17. > :08:22.research she did, people are saying to you, we do not know whether to
:08:22. > :08:30.believe what the yes campaign or the no campaign is the same, and we
:08:30. > :08:35.do not know how to evaluate them. People say we should make an
:08:35. > :08:40.assessment of the competing claims. That is what we do during a any
:08:40. > :08:44.election campaign. We expect people to do that. But across the board
:08:44. > :08:48.people said they would like some objective information. Ideally it
:08:48. > :08:55.would be great if both governments could state what the next steps
:08:55. > :09:01.would be. That would help. obvious thing would be, Nigel
:09:01. > :09:04.Lawson, before Christmas when Michael Moore was at the House of
:09:04. > :09:11.Lords committee, the British Government has the power to ask the
:09:11. > :09:18.European Union but the status of a Scottish Cup -- up a Scottish
:09:18. > :09:22.Government would be if people voted yes. He has put something into the
:09:22. > :09:30.public domain that the politicians do not want to be in the public
:09:30. > :09:36.domain. We did not start this process. We did not go out to ask
:09:36. > :09:40.this question. It came up. We are relaying that are both governments,
:09:40. > :09:44.saying how important it is to the electorate. Beyond a statement of
:09:44. > :09:48.process, given that people said it was not process they were worried
:09:48. > :09:52.about, and although it was not your responsibility, which he liked to
:09:52. > :09:57.say to the Government, you may like to read that passage and think
:09:57. > :10:00.about it? That is what we said. People want objective information.
:10:00. > :10:06.The greater clarity that can be given before the referendum would
:10:06. > :10:11.be appreciated by the electorate. It is down to the Government's --
:10:11. > :10:16.Governments. Voters want to know what happens in the event of a Yes
:10:16. > :10:26.vote and in the event of a no vote. The ya articulating that to the
:10:26. > :10:35.
:10:35. > :10:42.Political campaigners pay attention to opinion polls. In a minute, I
:10:43. > :10:48.will be speaking to the yes campaign, but here are few opinion
:10:48. > :10:55.polls operation -- recent Scottish opinion. The Scottish attitudes
:10:55. > :11:05.survey was announced last week. It looks like uncomfortable reading
:11:05. > :11:06.
:11:06. > :11:16.looks like uncomfortable reading Both figures are down from previous
:11:16. > :11:18.
:11:18. > :11:27.Another poll at the weekend was slot the ball positive for the Yes
:11:28. > :11:37.campaign, suggesting a 13. Gap -- A 13 point gap. Another respected
:11:38. > :11:38.
:11:38. > :11:45.poll has records going back to 2007. Yes is in blue, no is in red, and
:11:45. > :11:52.the don't know's I in yellow. There might be reasons for the ebbs and
:11:52. > :11:58.flows in opinion. Opinion polling is not just about the referendum.
:11:58. > :12:05.In spite of the apparent drift downwards in support for
:12:05. > :12:15.independence, the yes vote is clearly at the top of the heap in
:12:15. > :12:22.
:12:22. > :12:25.The Green Party did well on the regional list. Finally, there is a
:12:25. > :12:35.much more sophisticated way of predicting the outcome of a
:12:35. > :12:43.
:12:43. > :12:48.referendum. William Hill offered A few weeks ago, we interviewed the
:12:48. > :12:54.Better Together leader, Alastair bar -- Alistair Darling. I am now
:12:55. > :12:59.joined by Yes Scotland's Blair Jenkins. Do have any opinions on
:12:59. > :13:03.the money issue? Are you happy that it is vastly parallel? The key
:13:03. > :13:09.thing for the electoral commission to deliver was a level playing
:13:09. > :13:14.field, and they have done that now. Their original recommendation seen
:13:14. > :13:24.to be unequal as far as we could see, but I am happy with their new
:13:24. > :13:30.report. You have got a problem, haven't you? When you got involved
:13:30. > :13:34.and this, you would have expected to see support for independence
:13:34. > :13:42.rising by now, wouldn't you? think the interesting thing about
:13:42. > :13:50.the opinion polls is that the most reason one had a yes vote as 34 %.
:13:50. > :13:54.If that is where we are right now, I think that is OK. The SNP have
:13:54. > :14:00.been in government since 2007. reason -- the real debate begins
:14:00. > :14:06.now. Last year was dominated by a process. We have had an SNP
:14:06. > :14:10.government since 2007. This is a bigger debate. This is about the
:14:11. > :14:20.future direction of the country. Are you selling us there's going to
:14:20. > :14:24.be new and interesting arguments? Yes. The key important point is
:14:24. > :14:30.that the disparity has been down to different questions. One of the key
:14:30. > :14:35.things about today's question is that now on, every opinion poll
:14:35. > :14:40.will be asking the same thing, because there is no point in asking
:14:40. > :14:49.anything else. Opinion polls now will become clearer and more
:14:49. > :14:53.focused, and more reliable. you're just saying they are wrong?
:14:53. > :14:59.Surely, you are trying to put a good spin on it. The club be happy
:14:59. > :15:04.that Scottish social attitudes surveys had the yashmak boat -- the
:15:04. > :15:09.yes vote as 23 %. It's not that it hasn't changed over the last few
:15:09. > :15:15.months. It hasn't changed for about 20 years. He must have hoped the
:15:15. > :15:21.you are making progress. The 35 % figure is more reliable. You get
:15:21. > :15:26.that with real salami-slicing. It is also last year's opinion polls.
:15:26. > :15:34.But you're not making any progress. Most polls are showing you as going
:15:34. > :15:39.down. 34 % in the most recent poll. I think opinion will move our way.
:15:39. > :15:45.What is that based on? If you do things which are happening in the
:15:45. > :15:50.real world, I sought the Treasury content -- conceding that Scottish
:15:50. > :15:55.people would be no worse off. We have had the forcing through of the
:15:55. > :16:00.benefit cuts in Westminster against the wishes of 80 % of Scotland's
:16:00. > :16:06.MPs. As the things are realised, and as remove Ford in the debate,
:16:06. > :16:11.it will swing our way. Here is the key thing. What has happened today
:16:11. > :16:14.is that we now have clarity on the referendum question. Because the
:16:14. > :16:19.Electoral Commission did this extensive consultation, the people
:16:19. > :16:23.of Scotland have now given us the right question, and the people of
:16:23. > :16:32.Quest -- people of Scotland will give us the right answer. What type
:16:32. > :16:35.- but what sort of country to you want to live in? It is a multi-
:16:35. > :16:40.party campaign. It has got support from the study settle party, the
:16:40. > :16:50.Scottish Green Party, the Scottish socialists. I have had a look at
:16:50. > :16:52.
:16:52. > :16:57.your website. Your Yes Scotland. Let me give you one example. He is
:16:57. > :17:02.the section on oil and gas. It goes on about how wonderful it will be
:17:03. > :17:08.there. I did not see it reflected anywhere that the Green Party view
:17:08. > :17:12.that it is a band -- it is a bad idea. If you look further into the
:17:12. > :17:20.website, there is an article by Patrick Cox -- Patrick Harby the
:17:20. > :17:24.questions the reliance of oil. The reliance of Scotland of oil. The
:17:24. > :17:30.one thing everyone agrees on is that Westminster is not right for
:17:30. > :17:36.Scotland. We should not look at these and go to articles by Patrick
:17:36. > :17:42.Harvey? People in the yes campaign agree that Westminster is not
:17:42. > :17:48.working for Scotland. If we stay in the UK, we will -- will carry on
:17:48. > :17:54.not getting governments we want. said the other day, somewhat
:17:54. > :18:00.bizarrely, but they would never have been a financial Scotland if
:18:00. > :18:07.you had been independent. That is incorrect. Is Scotland had been
:18:07. > :18:17.independent, we might not have needed the banking bail-out.
:18:17. > :18:23.According to the F T today, RBS is about to pay �250 million in
:18:23. > :18:28.bonuses to the division that was involved in the interest rate
:18:28. > :18:33.scandal. Do you think you're right to pay those bonuses? I personally
:18:33. > :18:37.do not, but it is a decision for that company to make. If the UK
:18:37. > :18:43.government have a sizable stake in RBS, it is partly their decision as
:18:43. > :18:47.well. But you are the head of the yes campaign. This company will be
:18:47. > :18:54.regulated in Scotland. Do you think Stephen Hester is wrong to do this?
:18:54. > :18:58.I think banking bonuses have created a lot of cynicism.
:18:58. > :19:03.would say to Stephen Hester, do not do this? I disagree with excessive
:19:03. > :19:10.banking bonuses. Given what you were saying the other day about the
:19:10. > :19:13.financial crisis, you would reject absolutely any idea that financial
:19:13. > :19:17.regulation in an independent Scotland should be left to the
:19:17. > :19:23.banking industry? The fish has -- the Fiscal Commission is about to
:19:23. > :19:28.report, and arguments on both sides on a complex and technical issue.
:19:28. > :19:32.The valid point I was making was that if Scotland had been an
:19:32. > :19:38.independent country, just like other countries but Norway and
:19:38. > :19:43.Australia, babe did not spell out their banks. I think the UK
:19:43. > :19:50.government and the fine edge to services authority were asleep at
:19:50. > :19:52.the will. If you are right, you would reject absolutely any
:19:52. > :19:57.suggestion that an independent Scotland should leave regulation of
:19:57. > :20:01.its banks to the Bank of England? Otherwise, what you said does not
:20:01. > :20:09.make sense. The overall arrangements for the sterling zone
:20:10. > :20:18.there will have to deal with the issues around what is harmonised
:20:18. > :20:23.across the UK. I think is right to be part of the pound currency, and
:20:23. > :20:32.remain in that financial settlement. But that is for the benefit of
:20:32. > :20:36.Scotland and the rest of the UK. Even Alastair Darling has said that
:20:36. > :20:44.if Scotland votes yes, it would be desirable and logical for Scotland
:20:44. > :20:54.to carry on being part of the Stirling's own. -- the pound
:20:54. > :20:54.
:20:54. > :21:02.sterling zone. But the campaign say that they are responsible for the
:21:02. > :21:11.lax financial regulation in the first place. You should be saying,
:21:11. > :21:15.Alastair Darling is right? What I am saying is that even people who
:21:15. > :21:20.do not support Scottish independence, including Alastair
:21:20. > :21:23.Darling, say that if Scotland votes yes, it makes sense for everyone in
:21:23. > :21:33.the British Isles to pot Scotland to be part of the pound sterling
:21:33. > :21:39.
:21:39. > :21:44.zone. But separate casino banking from vanilla banking? My personal
:21:44. > :21:48.view is that there is a good case for separating High Street banking
:21:48. > :21:51.from investment banking. We have to leave it there. Very quickly,
:21:52. > :21:56.leave it there. Very quickly, tomorrow's front pages. The
:21:56. > :22:02.watchdog hits out at referendum confusion. There's a picture of
:22:02. > :22:07.what might be like the ballot paper there. The Financial Times has the