:00:01. > :00:11.revalue them until 2017. In the meantime no amount of creative
:00:11. > :00:15.
:00:15. > :00:20.thinking is likely to stop shops from shutting. Tonight on Newsnight
:00:20. > :00:23.Scotland, a new report forecasts a revolution in or a production which
:00:23. > :00:29.has huge potential for Scottish companies but which could also
:00:29. > :00:37.lawyer -- Lulworth North Sea oil revenues. What is the prognosis for
:00:37. > :00:40.Rangers? Good evening. A new report by PWC says success for the oil or
:00:40. > :00:45.fracking industry could provide a huge stimulus for growth and
:00:45. > :00:48.considerably cheaper oil for consumers. It could provide massive
:00:48. > :00:53.opportunities for the experienced oil and gas industry in Scotland.
:00:53. > :00:58.It will produce a more greenhouse gases and it may lower revenues
:00:58. > :01:01.from North Sea oil. The revolution is already happening, shale oil
:01:01. > :01:06.production in the US is growing by a quarter every year and fracking
:01:06. > :01:15.of gas is widespread. There are predictions that America could
:01:15. > :01:18.become a net exporter of hydrocarbons. It is a revolution
:01:18. > :01:25.which could affected just about every area of the economy as well
:01:25. > :01:32.as the energy industry. Fracking is cheap and as production increases,
:01:32. > :01:37.global oil prices could fall and people estimate between 25 and 40%.
:01:37. > :01:40.Cheaper oil is good for consumers and should boost growth. Some
:01:40. > :01:44.analysts think fracking in North America is giving a huge
:01:44. > :01:48.competitive advantage and some American companies are even of
:01:48. > :01:52.bringing home a factories from places like China. It is small
:01:53. > :01:57.scale, not dominated by big oil so there are enormous business
:01:57. > :02:00.opportunities. Countries which are already expired in the technology
:02:01. > :02:07.of oil and gas could benefit if they get their act together. That
:02:07. > :02:12.means Scotland. But if that all sounds too good to be true, there
:02:12. > :02:16.are problems. There are environmental concerns, fracking it
:02:16. > :02:21.cost an earthquake near Blackpool and there are worries about
:02:21. > :02:25.contamination of water. Environmentalists also say the last
:02:25. > :02:31.thing in the world needs is a new supply of hydrocarbons for energy
:02:31. > :02:34.and why that is something the British government seems keen on.
:02:34. > :02:39.Renewables could be sidelined, making Climate Change targets even
:02:39. > :02:43.harder to achieve that. Cheaper oil it could be lower North Sea oil
:02:43. > :02:50.revenues and put high-cost new projects on hold and that means
:02:50. > :02:57.less tax revenue from oil. I enjoy now from Edinburgh by Alistair
:02:57. > :03:02.Geddes who is director of the WC's oil and gas team. Just give us a
:03:02. > :03:08.sense, there has been an enormous change in the industry over the
:03:08. > :03:11.last few years President Obama that is right. The change has been
:03:11. > :03:15.significant but we are seeing it more in the US and that is where
:03:15. > :03:21.the evidence is coming from in terms of the potential for work
:03:21. > :03:25.shale gas as we have seen him but now shale oil as well. In the US we
:03:25. > :03:32.-- they have been producing this since 2004 and the production is
:03:32. > :03:36.growing strongly. A lot of us are not familiar with this. The report
:03:36. > :03:43.you have produced is about oil but a lot of the talk about fracking
:03:43. > :03:49.has been about gas and it is bigger. That is right. The debate is very
:03:49. > :03:55.alive about shale gas but a report looks at shale oil because we have
:03:55. > :04:00.seen that Shell Gas, the presence is an indicator for shale oil and
:04:00. > :04:06.as you said earlier, the shale oil is a relatively low cost and sauce,
:04:06. > :04:11.a new source of energy and when we ran the projections in at the
:04:11. > :04:15.models, what we see is with some reasonable assumptions about of the
:04:15. > :04:21.growth of production in it shale oil and across the globe, then in a
:04:21. > :04:25.couple of decades, you might see shale oil at representing 12% of
:04:25. > :04:31.the global energies of live. think that could lead directly to
:04:31. > :04:36.higher economic growth? Che oil means that more growth? That is
:04:36. > :04:46.right. For a lot of economies, this would mean a more affordable fuel.
:04:46. > :04:52.It has implications for fuel security. That means potentially a
:04:52. > :04:58.reduction of price. You can see potentially by 2035, a reduction in
:04:58. > :05:05.the price of a barrel of oil by as much as 40% and base against the
:05:05. > :05:09.current estimates. By 2035. By a couple of decades we would get to
:05:09. > :05:15.that point. That could be very significant. If you think about are
:05:15. > :05:19.the growth of energy demand in the world, driven mostly by China and
:05:19. > :05:26.India, as their economies grow, a new source could be really
:05:26. > :05:29.important. There were some reports suggest ing that what you were
:05:29. > :05:33.saying was lots of gas that could be extracted from Scotland and that
:05:33. > :05:38.would make a bigger difference. That is not really the point. You
:05:38. > :05:43.are saying that these global trends will have themselves because
:05:43. > :05:48.economic growth in the UK and Scotland, it is not about what
:05:48. > :05:56.actually happens to be underneath the ground here? The yes. It is
:05:56. > :06:01.more at the macro-economic level. It looks at some regions are.
:06:01. > :06:05.think that such -- that because Scotland has expertise in the
:06:05. > :06:10.industry, that could be a big opportunity? Yes. As you pointed
:06:10. > :06:14.out, the environmental concerns are real and there is a legitimate
:06:14. > :06:18.debate that we need to have around addressing nose and I think there
:06:18. > :06:24.is an opportunity for the fantastic industry that we have got in
:06:24. > :06:27.Aberdeen who have built up a great experience in the meeting a very
:06:27. > :06:33.demanding engineering and technical challenges to apply those skills in
:06:33. > :06:35.the new ways and drive new technological discovery and
:06:35. > :06:42.Investment to solve these are difficult issues that you have
:06:42. > :06:46.pointed out. The other side of this is if you are right about cheaper
:06:46. > :06:51.oil because of fracking, a bit Laura's North Sea oil revenues
:06:52. > :06:56.partly because you get less tax, but also because some of these
:06:56. > :07:02.projects which rely on a high price of oil will not go ahead. You are
:07:02. > :07:08.absolutely right. In a report, when you think about the potential
:07:08. > :07:12.impact in reducing the oil prize, there is a case of four oil
:07:12. > :07:16.producers to reassess some of the projects they might be looking at,
:07:16. > :07:22.where they have taken estimates based on a higher price. We could
:07:22. > :07:24.get some economic growth, but the downside is if you are in
:07:24. > :07:31.government, whether the British government or the Scottish
:07:31. > :07:33.government, you might like to redo the calculations? I think
:07:33. > :07:40.governments face a number of challenges than in their energy
:07:40. > :07:46.policy, about how they want to balance better fuel for the bill
:07:46. > :07:51.but -- affordability versus that there desire for a carbon reduction.
:07:51. > :07:55.A man briefly, what would you say, a lot of environmentalists are
:07:55. > :07:59.concerned, partly because of the well-known consequences, there have
:07:59. > :08:06.been problems with contaminated water and earthquakes, but the more
:08:06. > :08:11.we get into this, speaking about it, we could have fracking or a new
:08:11. > :08:16.generation of gas power stations, it takes attention away, depending
:08:16. > :08:22.on your taste, new renewable power generation of nuclear power. It
:08:22. > :08:28.takes attention away from green energy. That is a valid point.
:08:28. > :08:34.think the purpose of a report is to try and inform the debate really. I
:08:34. > :08:38.think what you will see in there is that there is a real request for
:08:38. > :08:44.government to think about the balance of those issues and it is
:08:44. > :08:50.not to take away from the demands for green energy or greener energy.
:08:50. > :08:59.It could be that governments might choose to take the windfall benefit
:08:59. > :09:05.if you like from lower oral crisis and switch that into Investment. --
:09:05. > :09:08.oil crisis. It is one year to the day since Rangers went into
:09:08. > :09:13.administration. It is difficult to decide whether the current events
:09:13. > :09:17.will leave a mark in history but this seems hard to believe that the
:09:17. > :09:27.Rangers saga will fade from memory. Let us have a look at the ups and
:09:27. > :09:31.
:09:31. > :09:41.downs of the year. It is very exciting. What is the main
:09:41. > :09:42.
:09:42. > :09:51.priority? To win a match. It was a club that deep in trouble. The
:09:51. > :09:57.saviour stepped forward but he failed to deliver. Today, HM are C
:09:57. > :10:03.past the court to appoint ament -- and administrator. Families come
:10:03. > :10:13.here together. The bottom line is that the big house must a open.
:10:13. > :10:14.
:10:14. > :10:18.That is the bottom line. Thank you. This was the moment it started to
:10:18. > :10:22.publicly unravelled for Rangers. Craig Whyte admitted that the game
:10:22. > :10:27.was up and the administrators were called in. That was just the start
:10:27. > :10:31.of the storm. These gates became in the garish backdrop as the dark
:10:31. > :10:40.clouds gathered and questions were asked about how the club could
:10:40. > :10:44.possibly be saved. And then, beside they really started. -- on the side
:10:44. > :10:47.down. The administrators started to the cost cutting and that high
:10:47. > :10:53.earners agreed to slash their wages. Then there was the fight for
:10:53. > :11:00.control. A buyer was then found and the fight was not over.
:11:00. > :11:04.Investigations, protests and Division Three followed. Those on
:11:04. > :11:09.the inside at the time it tell different stories about how control
:11:09. > :11:13.was lost. We did not see it coming. A lot of people asked how we did
:11:13. > :11:18.not. If you had nothing to do with the finances, then you cannot see
:11:18. > :11:22.where the club is going and what position it is in. I did ask if
:11:22. > :11:26.administration was a prospect and I was told it was dependent on the
:11:26. > :11:31.they get tax case and the bigger tax case was not decided upon at
:11:31. > :11:36.the time when Rangers went into administration. I think from that
:11:36. > :11:41.point of view, I felt a bit disappointed because it was a shock.
:11:41. > :11:47.With the benefit of hindsight, I should have had a conversation like
:11:47. > :11:53.this and said it is a real uphill struggle to turn the club around.
:11:53. > :11:59.You will have to bear with us on this and their art have days ahead.
:11:59. > :12:04.Everyone in needed to gather around and get through the dark days. I
:12:04. > :12:09.should have said that. I went out with more bullish statements then I
:12:09. > :12:14.should have and that was a mistake. Do you feel that you misled people?
:12:14. > :12:24.The IT not feel that I misled people, I did not intend to mislead
:12:24. > :12:29.people, but I regret not being more open and honest. The company died
:12:29. > :12:33.at Ibrox remains and so does the club. A new company under Charles
:12:33. > :12:40.Green has floated on the Stock Exchange and raised millions. Back
:12:40. > :12:47.from the brink, just. We were facing liquidation. There was a
:12:47. > :12:53.large tax case. They are now debt- free and hand as a success bolt
:12:53. > :12:57.fund raising scheme. They have a reduced cost base and the first
:12:57. > :13:02.team has been slimmed down and financially they love the very
:13:02. > :13:07.secured compared to where they were and should be in a position to
:13:07. > :13:14.trade that end of for promotion back to the SPL. Not everyone
:13:14. > :13:20.believes that all in the Rangers garden is rosy. Most fans are
:13:20. > :13:24.cautious and I think that an awful lot of scrutiny is required in
:13:25. > :13:31.terms of exactly how much money, where is the money, in what holding
:13:31. > :13:33.company does it resides? What relationship does that have to the
:13:33. > :13:39.shares that bans have got and what future might reasonably be imagined
:13:39. > :13:44.for Rangers when so many fantastic promises have been made by the
:13:44. > :13:48.current leaders of the club. There are quite a lot of challenges ahead.
:13:48. > :13:58.The idea of waltzing through the leagues and getting into the
:13:58. > :14:07.
:14:07. > :14:10.Champions League feels a bit naive. The site remains above the door and
:14:10. > :14:16.for fans of Rangers' one year on from administration, that'll do for
:14:16. > :14:25.now. I am joined by Richard Wilson of
:14:25. > :14:28.the Herald and Graham Spears. They have got a job on their hands
:14:28. > :14:34.getting themselves back into the SPL that in terms of the business
:14:34. > :14:37.story, do you think that is now finished? No. There is a police
:14:37. > :14:44.investigation going on. If there are still lots of questions to be
:14:44. > :14:48.answered about who did what. Charles Green will face more
:14:48. > :14:54.questions over the next two years. Although the terrible rupture has
:14:54. > :15:00.happened, the great cataclysm, my goodness, the business story will
:15:00. > :15:05.go on and on. It will take Rangers Football Club four or five, six or
:15:05. > :15:09.seven years to be whole again. This saga is not at the halfway line yet.
:15:09. > :15:13.Do you agree? There are far too many unanswered questions for
:15:13. > :15:18.anyone to be able to draw a line under this. We have the SPL
:15:18. > :15:22.Commission, the title stripping potential of that. The liquidation
:15:22. > :15:26.process will take three years. Scottish football will only be
:15:26. > :15:32.getting over this when Rangers is getting over this. There are still
:15:32. > :15:39.several years of this to be played out. Also, there is a football
:15:39. > :15:43.point that Stuart Cosgrave made. A lot of Rangers fans are too
:15:43. > :15:46.sensible to be too naive about this but the side here they come what's
:15:46. > :15:50.back-up to the SPL and then back and the Champions' League and all
:15:50. > :15:56.that sort of stuff, I mean if you look at Leeds United, and on almost
:15:56. > :15:59.club, it is not that easy. It is slightly different here because
:15:59. > :16:03.Rangers are far bigger than anybody else in Scottish football other
:16:03. > :16:06.than Celtic. Leeds were a big club in England but there are lots of
:16:06. > :16:10.big clubs. Rangers already have a bigger wage bill than anybody else
:16:10. > :16:15.outside Celtic. Some people might argue they are not getting their
:16:15. > :16:18.worth at the moment. Rangers are so big in Scottish football that there
:16:18. > :16:26.is no reason why they shouldn't be able to get through the League's
:16:26. > :16:31.first time of asking. I don't actually think that is a widespread
:16:31. > :16:39.attitude among fans, that they are going to waltz back in. Most think
:16:39. > :16:41.it will be a tough journey. I think Rangers should get back to the top
:16:41. > :16:45.in three years. They should, because they will have a financial
:16:45. > :16:51.advantage. Although, Charles Green is going to be very prudent and
:16:51. > :16:54.lean in terms of his budgeting. Once they get back there, how
:16:54. > :16:59.powerful will Rangers be in the SPL in their first couple of seasons? I
:16:59. > :17:03.suspect they might not be a dominant force at all. It could be
:17:03. > :17:09.up to six years in total. Where are they at the moment? I think I'm
:17:09. > :17:13.right in saying that the Home gates they are getting are still enormous.
:17:13. > :17:18.They are pulling in around 40,000 for a home football game. That will
:17:18. > :17:22.continue. Next she will be a difficult season for Rangers. The
:17:22. > :17:25.second division will feel a long way from the off top flight. That
:17:25. > :17:30.will be a hard sell. Rangers fans will still turn out in numbers. I'm
:17:30. > :17:35.right in thinking that only 9000 season-ticket holders from last
:17:36. > :17:39.season didn't renew. The club will go after those holders. The gates
:17:39. > :17:43.will continue. There is no reason to suspect they will not. That is
:17:43. > :17:49.why Rangers will pushed through the leagues quickly. They also much
:17:49. > :17:54.bigger than anybody else. Do you think that as well? All will people
:17:55. > :18:00.get fed up? Rangers fans, it is no joy for them being in the Third
:18:00. > :18:05.Division. I have been around Rangers' fans for 40 years, I'm
:18:05. > :18:10.sorry to say, and I've been at Ibrox. What they want is to be the
:18:10. > :18:15.top team in European football, to have nights at Juventus, to be
:18:15. > :18:23.competing. You don't want small teams at home, followed by small
:18:23. > :18:30.teams away. For those who are not part of this world, what keeps them
:18:30. > :18:37.going in those numbers? Why do 40,000 people turn out? Loyalty,
:18:37. > :18:42.affection for the club. Defiance. It is a whole range of issues.
:18:42. > :18:49.there is a sense of duty. They seem this club which they have supported
:18:49. > :18:53.0 -- supported their whole lives, almost go out of existence. They
:18:53. > :18:56.have continued to turn up because they recognise that continuing to
:18:56. > :19:00.turn up, they make the club stronger and make it come back
:19:00. > :19:06.quicker. The club needs them at this time. There is a sense of
:19:06. > :19:09.loyalty, commitment, duty. There is a sense of anger as well.
:19:09. > :19:14.almost get the sense, particularly when you talk about the home gates
:19:14. > :19:20.that they are getting, one of the lessons is it is as almost -- it is
:19:20. > :19:27.almost as if it is more than football. It's as if it is
:19:27. > :19:31.something bigger than a business. Rangers fans are fond of using the
:19:31. > :19:37.phrase, more than a club. They are not so good that defining what that
:19:37. > :19:39.means. Nonetheless, modern football fans all over Europe want to
:19:39. > :19:43.aspires it baggage or culture around the club and Rangers and
:19:43. > :19:48.Celtic fans are the same. Rangers fans say we are more than a club,
:19:48. > :19:53.we are Racal's. They stand for certain values which may not be
:19:53. > :19:57.different from other clubs but the sense of belonging is what we're
:19:57. > :20:02.talking about. It is coming to the cause of a wounded animal. A lot of
:20:02. > :20:06.Rangers fans think the club was wronged and an injustice was served.
:20:06. > :20:15.I don't think so. I think the old Rangers self-destructed. The
:20:15. > :20:23.custodians allowed the club to be destroyed. I want Rangers back to
:20:23. > :20:27.the top as soon as possible. What will they be like when they get
:20:28. > :20:37.back? Lot of Rangers fans would have been quick to choose Celtic
:20:37. > :20:42.before -- -- to accuse Celtic supporters... Do you think there is
:20:42. > :20:46.a danger that Rangers fans could, at the end of this, feel that they
:20:46. > :20:51.are the ones who have been in conspiracy? There is an element of
:20:51. > :20:55.hostility right now. There is a danger that they will continue to
:20:55. > :21:02.feel that way when they get back to the top flight. A strong Rangers is
:21:02. > :21:06.good for Scottish football but it must be a healthy Rangers. I can
:21:06. > :21:08.understand why Rangers fans feel that way but I don't think a
:21:08. > :21:13.boycott of away grounds will be good for Scottish football. The
:21:13. > :21:16.Rangers fans need to get this hostility out of the system so when
:21:16. > :21:25.they do come back, they can get back to going to football matches
:21:26. > :21:31.and enjoying the process. Charles Green... Rangers fans will have a
:21:31. > :21:35.very long list of conspirators against the club. I think they
:21:35. > :21:42.should be in all that, the persecution complex, and