:00:00. > :00:01.going to step into the vacuum is going to step into the vacuum is
:00:01. > :00:02.going to step into the vacuum is far from clear at the moment.
:00:02. > :00:12.far from clear at the moment. far from clear at the moment.
:00:12. > :00:12.
:00:12. > :00:14.Tonight on Newsnight Scotland: as Tonight on Newsnight Scotland: as
:00:15. > :00:16.Tonight on Newsnight Scotland: as the latest figures for Scotland's
:00:16. > :00:18.the latest figures for Scotland's the latest figures for Scotland's
:00:18. > :00:19.accounts are published a leaked accounts are published a leaked
:00:19. > :00:20.document shows the Government document shows the Government
:00:20. > :00:21.questioning its own rosy questioning its own rosy
:00:21. > :00:23.assumptions about independence. assumptions about independence.
:00:23. > :00:24.assumptions about independence. Where does that leave the debate?
:00:24. > :00:24.Where does that leave the debate? Where does that leave the debate?
:00:24. > :00:25.We'll ask whether an independent We'll ask whether an independent
:00:25. > :00:27.We'll ask whether an independent Scotland would be better or worse
:00:27. > :00:28.off. off.
:00:28. > :00:29.Good evening. Today's snappily Good evening. Today's snappily
:00:29. > :00:30.titled Government Expenditure and titled Government Expenditure and
:00:30. > :00:31.titled Government Expenditure and Revenue in Scotland figures give us
:00:31. > :00:32.Revenue in Scotland figures give us Revenue in Scotland figures give us
:00:32. > :00:33.Revenue in Scotland figures give us some idea of the state of the
:00:33. > :00:34.some idea of the state of the some idea of the state of the
:00:34. > :00:35.finances right now. A leaked finances right now. A leaked
:00:35. > :00:35.finances right now. A leaked finances right now. A leaked
:00:35. > :00:36.document gives some idea of how the document gives some idea of how the
:00:36. > :00:37.document gives some idea of how the Scottish Government sees the future.
:00:37. > :00:38.Scottish Government sees the future. The internal document suggests
:00:38. > :00:39.The internal document suggests The internal document suggests
:00:39. > :00:40.Scotland could be running a larger Scotland could be running a larger
:00:40. > :00:41.Scotland could be running a larger Scotland could be running a larger
:00:41. > :00:42.public deficit than the UK as a public deficit than the UK as a
:00:42. > :00:43.public deficit than the UK as a public deficit than the UK as a
:00:43. > :00:43.whole by 2016. The SNP argue it's whole by 2016. The SNP argue it's
:00:43. > :00:44.whole by 2016. The SNP argue it's now been overtaken by events.
:00:44. > :00:51.now been overtaken by events. now been overtaken by events.
:00:51. > :00:52.Steven Godden has the details. Steven Godden has the details.
:00:52. > :00:53.Steven Godden has the details. We reject utterly the arguments of
:00:53. > :00:54.We reject utterly the arguments of We reject utterly the arguments of
:00:55. > :00:58.those who want Scotland to break those who want Scotland to break
:00:59. > :01:02.those who want Scotland to break away from the United Kingdom.
:01:02. > :01:04.away from the United Kingdom. Government Expenditure and Revenue
:01:04. > :01:05.Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland figures were commissioned
:01:05. > :01:06.Scotland figures were commissioned Scotland figures were commissioned
:01:06. > :01:07.Scotland figures were commissioned by the Government in the early '90
:01:07. > :01:10.by the Government in the early '90 by the Government in the early '90
:01:10. > :01:11.setting out actual levels of tax and spending.
:01:11. > :01:12.and spending. and spending.
:01:12. > :01:15.and spending. To some, the point of the exercise
:01:15. > :01:16.To some, the point of the exercise was to underline Scotland's
:01:16. > :01:17.was to underline Scotland's was to underline Scotland's
:01:17. > :01:19.was to underline Scotland's dependence on the UK - fast forward
:01:19. > :01:23.dependence on the UK - fast forward dependence on the UK - fast forward
:01:23. > :01:24.two decades, and the document tells two decades, and the document tells
:01:24. > :01:25.a different, albeit dramatically a different, albeit dramatically
:01:25. > :01:26.a different, albeit dramatically awkward story. Compared to the rest
:01:26. > :01:27.awkward story. Compared to the rest awkward story. Compared to the rest
:01:27. > :01:28.awkward story. Compared to the rest of the UK, Scotland is less badly
:01:28. > :01:30.of the UK, Scotland is less badly of the UK, Scotland is less badly
:01:30. > :01:32.off. At the moment, the British off. At the moment, the British
:01:32. > :01:33.off. At the moment, the British off. At the moment, the British
:01:33. > :01:34.finances are in such a mess. That's finances are in such a mess. That's
:01:34. > :01:35.finances are in such a mess. That's what's driving all the business
:01:35. > :01:36.what's driving all the business what's driving all the business
:01:36. > :01:37.about austerity and sorting out the about austerity and sorting out the
:01:37. > :01:38.about austerity and sorting out the about austerity and sorting out the
:01:38. > :01:39.size of the deficit and trying to size of the deficit and trying to
:01:39. > :01:40.size of the deficit and trying to size of the deficit and trying to
:01:40. > :01:42.size of the deficit and trying to stop the rise in debt at a UK level,
:01:42. > :01:42.stop the rise in debt at a UK level, stop the rise in debt at a UK level,
:01:42. > :01:44.and the Scottish figures reflect and the Scottish figures reflect
:01:44. > :01:45.and the Scottish figures reflect that to some extent, but they're
:01:45. > :01:46.that to some extent, but they're that to some extent, but they're
:01:46. > :01:47.that to some extent, but they're made to look much better in the
:01:48. > :01:48.made to look much better in the made to look much better in the
:01:48. > :01:50.made to look much better in the year we have heard about today, and
:01:50. > :01:51.year we have heard about today, and year we have heard about today, and
:01:51. > :01:52.year we have heard about today, and in the past few years because it's
:01:52. > :01:52.in the past few years because it's in the past few years because it's
:01:52. > :02:00.in the past few years because it's been a pretty golden period for oil
:02:00. > :02:01.been a pretty golden period for oil been a pretty golden period for oil
:02:01. > :02:03.and gas. The headline figures show and gas. The headline figures show
:02:03. > :02:05.and gas. The headline figures show that in the year spanning 2011,
:02:05. > :02:07.that in the year spanning 2011, that in the year spanning 2011,
:02:07. > :02:09.2012, money coming in from taxation 2012, money coming in from taxation
:02:09. > :02:10.2012, money coming in from taxation 2012, money coming in from taxation
:02:10. > :02:12.added up to almost �57 billion. In added up to almost �57 billion. In
:02:12. > :02:13.added up to almost �57 billion. In the same period total spending
:02:13. > :02:16.the same period total spending including capital expenditure
:02:16. > :02:17.including capital expenditure including capital expenditure
:02:17. > :02:19.amounted to �64.5 billion. That amounted to �64.5 billion. That
:02:19. > :02:21.amounted to �64.5 billion. That leaves a deficit of �7.6 billion,
:02:21. > :02:22.leaves a deficit of �7.6 billion, leaves a deficit of �7.6 billion,
:02:22. > :02:23.which translates to 5% of GDP. which translates to 5% of GDP.
:02:23. > :02:24.which translates to 5% of GDP. which translates to 5% of GDP.
:02:25. > :02:27.Compare that to the figure for the Compare that to the figure for the
:02:27. > :02:29.Compare that to the figure for the Compare that to the figure for the
:02:29. > :02:32.Compare that to the figure for the UK as a whole - a deficit of �121
:02:32. > :02:33.UK as a whole - a deficit of �121 UK as a whole - a deficit of �121
:02:33. > :02:35.UK as a whole - a deficit of �121 billion, 7.9% of GDP. A key point
:02:35. > :02:35.billion, 7.9% of GDP. A key point billion, 7.9% of GDP. A key point
:02:35. > :02:37.about the figures in this document about the figures in this document
:02:37. > :02:39.about the figures in this document is that they have been calculated
:02:39. > :02:40.is that they have been calculated to include Scotland's
:02:40. > :02:41.to include Scotland's to include Scotland's
:02:41. > :02:43.geographicical share of North Sea geographicical share of North Sea
:02:43. > :02:44.geographicical share of North Sea geographicical share of North Sea
:02:44. > :02:44.oil revenue, a figure of around �10 oil revenue, a figure of around �10
:02:44. > :02:45.oil revenue, a figure of around �10 billion that currently finds its
:02:45. > :02:46.billion that currently finds its billion that currently finds its
:02:46. > :02:48.billion that currently finds its way to the UK Treasury, so while
:02:48. > :02:49.way to the UK Treasury, so while way to the UK Treasury, so while
:02:49. > :02:50.the pages of this document aren't the pages of this document aren't
:02:50. > :02:52.the pages of this document aren't quite dripping with black gold, its
:02:52. > :02:53.quite dripping with black gold, its quite dripping with black gold, its
:02:53. > :02:54.significance is clear. It is significance is clear. It is
:02:54. > :02:55.significance is clear. It is absolutely colossal. It is the
:02:55. > :02:57.absolutely colossal. It is the absolutely colossal. It is the
:02:58. > :03:02.elephant in the room on any elephant in the room on any
:03:02. > :03:03.statement of Scottish Government statement of Scottish Government
:03:03. > :03:04.revenues and spending. Without revenues and spending. Without
:03:05. > :03:06.revenues and spending. Without North Sea oil revenues, there would
:03:06. > :03:07.North Sea oil revenues, there would North Sea oil revenues, there would
:03:07. > :03:08.be little debate. North Sea oil be little debate. North Sea oil
:03:08. > :03:09.be little debate. North Sea oil revenues do transform the whole
:03:09. > :03:10.revenues do transform the whole revenues do transform the whole
:03:10. > :03:11.political and economic argument in political and economic argument in
:03:11. > :03:12.political and economic argument in Scotland. There is no doubt about
:03:13. > :03:14.Scotland. There is no doubt about Scotland. There is no doubt about
:03:14. > :03:16.that. The SNP Government hope the that. The SNP Government hope the
:03:17. > :03:19.upcoming referendum on independence upcoming referendum on independence
:03:19. > :03:20.upcoming referendum on independence upcoming referendum on independence
:03:20. > :03:22.will allow them to move beyond the will allow them to move beyond the
:03:22. > :03:24.hypothetical. The Finance Secretary hypothetical. The Finance Secretary
:03:24. > :03:25.believes the report strengthens believes the report strengthens
:03:25. > :03:26.their argument. This report their argument. This report
:03:26. > :03:28.their argument. This report demonstrates that Scotland pays its
:03:29. > :03:30.demonstrates that Scotland pays its demonstrates that Scotland pays its
:03:30. > :03:32.way. We contribute 9.9% of UK way. We contribute 9.9% of UK
:03:32. > :03:34.way. We contribute 9.9% of UK way. We contribute 9.9% of UK
:03:34. > :03:35.revenue, and we get back in return revenue, and we get back in return
:03:35. > :03:36.revenue, and we get back in return 9.3% of UK expenditure. It
:03:36. > :03:37.9.3% of UK expenditure. It demonstrates Scotland is
:03:37. > :03:38.demonstrates Scotland is demonstrates Scotland is
:03:38. > :03:40.contributing more to the United contributing more to the United
:03:40. > :03:42.contributing more to the United Kingdom than we're getting back in
:03:42. > :03:42.Kingdom than we're getting back in Kingdom than we're getting back in
:03:42. > :03:43.return and establishes very strong return and establishes very strong
:03:43. > :03:44.return and establishes very strong foundation for Scotland to be a
:03:44. > :03:46.foundation for Scotland to be a foundation for Scotland to be a
:03:46. > :03:48.country that can manage our own country that can manage our own
:03:48. > :03:49.country that can manage our own resources and use our economic
:03:49. > :03:50.resources and use our economic resources and use our economic
:03:50. > :03:53.powers and discretion to create the powers and discretion to create the
:03:53. > :03:55.best economic conditions for Scotland.
:03:55. > :03:57.MUSIC MUSIC
:03:57. > :03:58.MUSIC MUSIC
:03:58. > :04:00.But while the oil and gas sector But while the oil and gas sector
:04:00. > :04:01.But while the oil and gas sector generates huge sums of money, its
:04:01. > :04:02.generates huge sums of money, its generates huge sums of money, its
:04:02. > :04:03.volatility is acknowledged in a volatility is acknowledged in a
:04:03. > :04:05.volatility is acknowledged in a Scottish Government paper leaked to
:04:05. > :04:06.Scottish Government paper leaked to Scottish Government paper leaked to
:04:06. > :04:07.the BBC, with both price and the BBC, with both price and
:04:07. > :04:08.production notoriously difficult to production notoriously difficult to
:04:08. > :04:10.production notoriously difficult to predict. The paper contains a
:04:10. > :04:12.predict. The paper contains a predict. The paper contains a
:04:12. > :04:13.warning - because estimates of warning - because estimates of
:04:13. > :04:15.warning - because estimates of future tax rev news were revised
:04:15. > :04:16.future tax rev news were revised future tax rev news were revised
:04:16. > :04:18.downwards, forecast for the deficit downwards, forecast for the deficit
:04:18. > :04:19.more than doubled, creating more than doubled, creating
:04:19. > :04:20.considerable uncertainty for considerable uncertainty for
:04:20. > :04:21.considerable uncertainty for Scotland's finances. The paper was
:04:21. > :04:23.Scotland's finances. The paper was Scotland's finances. The paper was
:04:23. > :04:24.drafted in the wake of last drafted in the wake of last
:04:24. > :04:26.drafted in the wake of last spring's UK budget. The Scottish
:04:26. > :04:27.spring's UK budget. The Scottish spring's UK budget. The Scottish
:04:27. > :04:28.Government say it's been overtaken Government say it's been overtaken
:04:28. > :04:30.Government say it's been overtaken by event, but opponents have seized
:04:30. > :04:31.by event, but opponents have seized by event, but opponents have seized
:04:31. > :04:33.by event, but opponents have seized on it. From year to year, they
:04:33. > :04:34.on it. From year to year, they acknowledge themselves finally -
:04:34. > :04:35.acknowledge themselves finally - acknowledge themselves finally -
:04:35. > :04:36.there's huge volatility. That tax there's huge volatility. That tax
:04:36. > :04:37.there's huge volatility. That tax base cannot be depended on to
:04:37. > :04:38.base cannot be depended on to base cannot be depended on to
:04:38. > :04:39.deliver the same high levels from deliver the same high levels from
:04:39. > :04:40.deliver the same high levels from deliver the same high levels from
:04:40. > :04:41.oil and gas every year as we've oil and gas every year as we've
:04:41. > :04:42.oil and gas every year as we've enjoyed this particular year. As
:04:42. > :04:44.enjoyed this particular year. As enjoyed this particular year. As
:04:44. > :04:45.enjoyed this particular year. As part of the UK, we can cope with
:04:45. > :04:46.part of the UK, we can cope with part of the UK, we can cope with
:04:46. > :04:47.part of the UK, we can cope with those changes. We can build on the
:04:47. > :04:49.those changes. We can build on the those changes. We can build on the
:04:49. > :04:49.strength we have. As an country strength we have. As an country
:04:49. > :04:52.strength we have. As an country strength we have. As an country
:04:52. > :04:53.we'd have to face up to some tough we'd have to face up to some tough
:04:53. > :04:54.we'd have to face up to some tough choices, and the SNP routinely fail
:04:54. > :04:55.choices, and the SNP routinely fail choices, and the SNP routinely fail
:04:55. > :04:56.choices, and the SNP routinely fail to answer the questions we ask of
:04:56. > :04:57.to answer the questions we ask of to answer the questions we ask of
:04:57. > :04:59.them. As for the immediate future, them. As for the immediate future,
:04:59. > :05:00.them. As for the immediate future, there is little from economists to
:05:00. > :05:03.there is little from economists to suggest a dramatic turnaround.
:05:03. > :05:03.suggest a dramatic turnaround. suggest a dramatic turnaround.
:05:03. > :05:06.Growth has been weaker than Growth has been weaker than
:05:06. > :05:08.Growth has been weaker than expected according to the Fraser
:05:08. > :05:09.expected according to the Fraser expected according to the Fraser
:05:09. > :05:11.and Alander Instut, who today and Alander Instut, who today
:05:11. > :05:12.downgraded their forecasts for downgraded their forecasts for
:05:12. > :05:14.downgraded their forecasts for Scottish GDP. While we're seeing
:05:14. > :05:16.Scottish GDP. While we're seeing Scottish GDP. While we're seeing
:05:16. > :05:17.Scottish GDP. While we're seeing some growth in our forecasts of .9%,
:05:17. > :05:18.some growth in our forecasts of .9%, some growth in our forecasts of .9%,
:05:18. > :05:20.we have reduced it from our we have reduced it from our
:05:20. > :05:22.we have reduced it from our previous forecast, we're not seeing
:05:22. > :05:24.previous forecast, we're not seeing previous forecast, we're not seeing
:05:24. > :05:25.strong growth, but by "strong" strong growth, but by "strong"
:05:25. > :05:27.strong growth, but by "strong" we're talking about 2.5% over the
:05:27. > :05:29.we're talking about 2.5% over the we're talking about 2.5% over the
:05:29. > :05:30.we're talking about 2.5% over the horizon, and we think we might get
:05:30. > :05:31.horizon, and we think we might get horizon, and we think we might get
:05:31. > :05:32.horizon, and we think we might get back closer to that by 2015, but of
:05:32. > :05:33.back closer to that by 2015, but of back closer to that by 2015, but of
:05:33. > :05:36.back closer to that by 2015, but of course, that's a long way ahead and
:05:36. > :05:37.course, that's a long way ahead and very difficult to forecast.
:05:37. > :05:38.very difficult to forecast. # Burning #
:05:38. > :05:39.# Burning # # Burning #
:05:39. > :05:41.So whether it's Scotland's economy So whether it's Scotland's economy
:05:41. > :05:43.So whether it's Scotland's economy So whether it's Scotland's economy
:05:43. > :05:45.as a whole or a particular sector, as a whole or a particular sector,
:05:45. > :05:45.as a whole or a particular sector, like oil and gas, tough predictions
:05:45. > :05:52.like oil and gas, tough predictions like oil and gas, tough predictions
:05:52. > :05:53.like oil and gas, tough predictions seem to be a recurring theme. We'll
:05:53. > :05:57.seem to be a recurring theme. We'll seem to be a recurring theme. We'll
:05:57. > :05:58.hear from the politicians in a hear from the politicians in a
:05:58. > :05:59.hear from the politicians in a hear from the politicians in a
:05:59. > :06:00.moment. But first I'm joined by the moment. But first I'm joined by the
:06:00. > :06:01.moment. But first I'm joined by the economist Jo Armstrong from the
:06:01. > :06:01.economist Jo Armstrong from the economist Jo Armstrong from the
:06:02. > :06:03.Centre for Public Policy and Centre for Public Policy and
:06:03. > :06:03.Centre for Public Policy and Regions. Jo Armstrong, this leaked
:06:03. > :06:04.Regions. Jo Armstrong, this leaked Regions. Jo Armstrong, this leaked
:06:04. > :06:05.Regions. Jo Armstrong, this leaked document - I don't know if the
:06:05. > :06:06.document - I don't know if the document - I don't know if the
:06:06. > :06:08.document - I don't know if the viewers can see it - I should point
:06:08. > :06:10.viewers can see it - I should point viewers can see it - I should point
:06:10. > :06:11.out the James Bond cover was out the James Bond cover was
:06:11. > :06:13.out the James Bond cover was contributed by the Better Together
:06:13. > :06:13.contributed by the Better Together contributed by the Better Together
:06:13. > :06:14.campaign, who are trying to get campaign, who are trying to get
:06:14. > :06:15.campaign, who are trying to get campaign, who are trying to get
:06:15. > :06:16.anyone they can to read this. What anyone they can to read this. What
:06:16. > :06:17.anyone they can to read this. What anyone they can to read this. What
:06:17. > :06:18.anyone they can to read this. What do you make of the fact that if I
:06:18. > :06:19.do you make of the fact that if I do you make of the fact that if I
:06:19. > :06:21.am reading it correctly, John am reading it correctly, John
:06:21. > :06:22.am reading it correctly, John Sweeney himself seems to say that
:06:22. > :06:23.Sweeney himself seems to say that Sweeney himself seems to say that
:06:23. > :06:25.an independent Scotland would have an independent Scotland would have
:06:25. > :06:26.an independent Scotland would have an independent Scotland would have
:06:26. > :06:28.a larger budget deficit than the UK a larger budget deficit than the UK
:06:28. > :06:28.a larger budget deficit than the UK a larger budget deficit than the UK
:06:28. > :06:30.by I think 2016. Yes. What was by I think 2016. Yes. What was
:06:30. > :06:30.by I think 2016. Yes. What was by I think 2016. Yes. What was
:06:30. > :06:31.interesting for us in CPPR is it interesting for us in CPPR is it
:06:31. > :06:32.interesting for us in CPPR is it interesting for us in CPPR is it
:06:32. > :06:34.reflects a lot of what we have been reflects a lot of what we have been
:06:34. > :06:35.reflects a lot of what we have been reflects a lot of what we have been
:06:35. > :06:37.seeing over the last two year, is seeing over the last two year, is
:06:37. > :06:38.seeing over the last two year, is that they're taking the current
:06:38. > :06:39.that they're taking the current fiscal balance position and
:06:39. > :06:44.fiscal balance position and fiscal balance position and
:06:44. > :06:45.extrapolating through to 2016, 2017 extrapolating through to 2016, 2017
:06:46. > :06:48.the current good position the current good position
:06:48. > :06:49.the current good position the current good position
:06:49. > :06:50.Scotland's in - is turned over and Scotland's in - is turned over and
:06:50. > :06:51.Scotland's in - is turned over and Scotland's in - is turned over and
:06:51. > :06:52.turned around and by 2016 in that turned around and by 2016 in that
:06:52. > :06:52.turned around and by 2016 in that turned around and by 2016 in that
:06:52. > :06:54.document, the UK is in a better document, the UK is in a better
:06:54. > :06:55.position than Scotland. However, position than Scotland. However,
:06:55. > :06:57.position than Scotland. However, it's still a fiscal deficit, so
:06:57. > :06:59.it's still a fiscal deficit, so it's still a fiscal deficit, so
:07:00. > :07:01.whoever is using the numbers to whoever is using the numbers to
:07:01. > :07:02.present the picture, fiscal present the picture, fiscal
:07:02. > :07:03.present the picture, fiscal austerity is something that still
:07:03. > :07:05.austerity is something that still austerity is something that still
:07:05. > :07:06.austerity is something that still has to be dealt with unless we get
:07:06. > :07:07.has to be dealt with unless we get significant economic growth.
:07:08. > :07:10.significant economic growth. significant economic growth.
:07:10. > :07:11.also really depends on accepting - also really depends on accepting -
:07:11. > :07:12.also really depends on accepting - and John Sweeney in his document
:07:12. > :07:14.and John Sweeney in his document and John Sweeney in his document
:07:14. > :07:18.very explicitly says he accepts the very explicitly says he accepts the
:07:18. > :07:20.office for budget responsibility's office for budget responsibility's
:07:20. > :07:22.office for budget responsibility's figures for oil revenues. Yes.I
:07:22. > :07:23.figures for oil revenues. Yes.I figures for oil revenues. Yes.I
:07:23. > :07:23.think today the SNP have been think today the SNP have been
:07:24. > :07:25.think today the SNP have been trying too suggest that maybe there
:07:25. > :07:26.trying too suggest that maybe there trying too suggest that maybe there
:07:26. > :07:27.has been a recent spate of has been a recent spate of
:07:27. > :07:28.has been a recent spate of investment in the North Sea, and
:07:28. > :07:28.investment in the North Sea, and investment in the North Sea, and
:07:29. > :07:30.that could change things around. Do that could change things around. Do
:07:30. > :07:31.that could change things around. Do you think that's the case?
:07:31. > :07:32.you think that's the case? you think that's the case?
:07:32. > :07:33.current investment in the North Sea current investment in the North Sea
:07:33. > :07:36.current investment in the North Sea has clearly been assisted by two
:07:36. > :07:37.has clearly been assisted by two has clearly been assisted by two
:07:37. > :07:39.things - higher oil prices and things - higher oil prices and
:07:39. > :07:40.things - higher oil prices and flexible tax regime. What that does
:07:40. > :07:42.flexible tax regime. What that does flexible tax regime. What that does
:07:42. > :07:43.flexible tax regime. What that does is help extend the life of the
:07:43. > :07:44.is help extend the life of the fields, extend the production
:07:44. > :07:45.fields, extend the production fields, extend the production
:07:45. > :07:46.fields, extend the production coming out of the North Sea. It
:07:46. > :07:47.coming out of the North Sea. It coming out of the North Sea. It
:07:47. > :07:50.isn't in any way likely to isn't in any way likely to
:07:50. > :07:52.fundamentally change the tax fundamentally change the tax
:07:52. > :07:53.fundamentally change the tax reseats coming to the UK Exchequer.
:07:53. > :07:54.reseats coming to the UK Exchequer. reseats coming to the UK Exchequer.
:07:54. > :07:58.reseats coming to the UK Exchequer. reseats coming to the UK Exchequer.
:07:58. > :07:59.But why not if there is a spike in But why not if there is a spike in
:07:59. > :08:00.exploration? Because the production exploration? Because the production
:08:00. > :08:01.exploration? Because the production that's coming onstream now and the
:08:01. > :08:03.that's coming onstream now and the that's coming onstream now and the
:08:03. > :08:04.production that has been invested production that has been invested
:08:04. > :08:05.production that has been invested in now is a more expensive
:08:05. > :08:06.in now is a more expensive in now is a more expensive
:08:06. > :08:07.investment, a much more expensive investment, a much more expensive
:08:07. > :08:09.investment, a much more expensive investment, a much more expensive
:08:09. > :08:10.oil to take out of the North Sea, oil to take out of the North Sea,
:08:11. > :08:12.oil to take out of the North Sea, and we've got a more expensive
:08:12. > :08:13.and we've got a more expensive and we've got a more expensive
:08:14. > :08:15.maintenance programme that needs to maintenance programme that needs to
:08:15. > :08:16.maintenance programme that needs to be funded from revenues, so the
:08:16. > :08:17.be funded from revenues, so the be funded from revenues, so the
:08:17. > :08:18.revenue we have generated that's revenue we have generated that's
:08:18. > :08:19.revenue we have generated that's taxable will be reduced as a
:08:19. > :08:20.taxable will be reduced as a taxable will be reduced as a
:08:20. > :08:22.taxable will be reduced as a consequence of that. But what I -
:08:22. > :08:22.consequence of that. But what I - consequence of that. But what I -
:08:22. > :08:23.obviously the John Swinney document obviously the John Swinney document
:08:24. > :08:25.obviously the John Swinney document was referring to the OBR figures
:08:25. > :08:26.was referring to the OBR figures was referring to the OBR figures
:08:26. > :08:28.was referring to the OBR figures from the budget, but the OBR then
:08:28. > :08:29.from the budget, but the OBR then from the budget, but the OBR then
:08:29. > :08:30.produced more figures in December produced more figures in December
:08:30. > :08:31.produced more figures in December with the autumn statement. Yes.
:08:31. > :08:32.with the autumn statement. Yes. with the autumn statement. Yes.
:08:32. > :08:34.They actually forecast for most They actually forecast for most
:08:34. > :08:36.They actually forecast for most years, not all - actually, they
:08:36. > :08:37.years, not all - actually, they have downgraded their expectations
:08:37. > :08:39.have downgraded their expectations have downgraded their expectations
:08:39. > :08:40.have downgraded their expectations of tax receipts from oil, so one
:08:40. > :08:40.of tax receipts from oil, so one of tax receipts from oil, so one
:08:41. > :08:42.presumes John Swinney would accept presumes John Swinney would accept
:08:42. > :08:43.presumes John Swinney would accept that as well, but what you're
:08:43. > :08:45.that as well, but what you're that as well, but what you're
:08:45. > :08:47.saying is that could be compatible saying is that could be compatible
:08:47. > :08:49.saying is that could be compatible with a spike upwards in
:08:49. > :08:50.with a spike upwards in production... Absolutely. For the
:08:50. > :08:54.production... Absolutely. For the reasons you have outlined.
:08:54. > :08:55.reasons you have outlined. reasons you have outlined.
:08:55. > :08:56.Absolutely, yes. OK. The other Absolutely, yes. OK. The other
:08:56. > :08:58.Absolutely, yes. OK. The other thing that's obviously been picked
:08:58. > :09:00.thing that's obviously been picked thing that's obviously been picked
:09:00. > :09:02.thing that's obviously been picked up on this is a fairly explicit
:09:02. > :09:03.up on this is a fairly explicit recommendation - recognition by
:09:03. > :09:04.recommendation - recognition by recommendation - recognition by
:09:04. > :09:05.John Swinney in this document that John Swinney in this document that
:09:05. > :09:07.John Swinney in this document that the problem Scotland has with an
:09:07. > :09:08.the problem Scotland has with an the problem Scotland has with an
:09:08. > :09:09.ageing population will be there ageing population will be there
:09:09. > :09:10.ageing population will be there even in an independent Scotland to
:09:10. > :09:11.even in an independent Scotland to even in an independent Scotland to
:09:11. > :09:12.even in an independent Scotland to the extent that he appears to be
:09:12. > :09:13.the extent that he appears to be the extent that he appears to be
:09:13. > :09:14.suggesting they might have to suggesting they might have to
:09:14. > :09:16.suggesting they might have to contemplate cuts in public spending
:09:16. > :09:17.contemplate cuts in public spending contemplate cuts in public spending
:09:17. > :09:17.contemplate cuts in public spending or even cuts in pensions. If we
:09:18. > :09:18.or even cuts in pensions. If we or even cuts in pensions. If we
:09:18. > :09:20.have a fiscal deficit, which is have a fiscal deficit, which is
:09:20. > :09:21.have a fiscal deficit, which is what these numbers are showing and
:09:21. > :09:22.what these numbers are showing and what these numbers are showing and
:09:22. > :09:23.what these numbers are showing and we can't see how we're going to
:09:23. > :09:25.we can't see how we're going to we can't see how we're going to
:09:25. > :09:26.increase the tax take or the increase the tax take or the
:09:26. > :09:27.increase the tax take or the assumption is we're not likely to
:09:27. > :09:29.assumption is we're not likely to assumption is we're not likely to
:09:29. > :09:30.increase taxes to increase the tax increase taxes to increase the tax
:09:30. > :09:31.increase taxes to increase the tax take, then any additional demand
:09:31. > :09:32.take, then any additional demand take, then any additional demand
:09:32. > :09:34.take, then any additional demand coming through has to be met from
:09:34. > :09:35.coming through has to be met from coming through has to be met from
:09:35. > :09:35.coming through has to be met from that fixed cake, and if we haven't
:09:36. > :09:36.that fixed cake, and if we haven't that fixed cake, and if we haven't
:09:36. > :09:37.got the Department for Work and got the Department for Work and
:09:37. > :09:38.got the Department for Work and Pensions or the Treasury supporting
:09:38. > :09:39.Pensions or the Treasury supporting Pensions or the Treasury supporting
:09:39. > :09:40.Pensions or the Treasury supporting Pensions or the Treasury supporting
:09:40. > :09:41.that, then it has to come out of a that, then it has to come out of a
:09:41. > :09:43.that, then it has to come out of a fixed budget. Therefore it's likely
:09:43. > :09:43.fixed budget. Therefore it's likely fixed budget. Therefore it's likely
:09:44. > :09:45.fixed budget. Therefore it's likely other services might have to be cut
:09:45. > :09:46.other services might have to be cut other services might have to be cut
:09:46. > :09:47.to accommodate. We have a problem to accommodate. We have a problem
:09:48. > :09:49.to accommodate. We have a problem with an ageing population compared
:09:49. > :09:49.with an ageing population compared with an ageing population compared
:09:49. > :09:50.with an ageing population compared to... We have marginally more of a
:09:50. > :09:51.to... We have marginally more of a to... We have marginally more of a
:09:51. > :09:52.to... We have marginally more of a problem in Scotland than in the UK
:09:52. > :09:52.problem in Scotland than in the UK problem in Scotland than in the UK
:09:52. > :09:54.problem in Scotland than in the UK at the moment, but I think it's
:09:54. > :09:55.at the moment, but I think it's at the moment, but I think it's
:09:55. > :09:56.important to reflect on the fact important to reflect on the fact
:09:56. > :09:58.important to reflect on the fact that the document is a document
:09:58. > :09:59.that the document is a document that the document is a document
:09:59. > :10:00.that talks about, you know, the that talks about, you know, the
:10:00. > :10:02.that talks about, you know, the current fiscal regime. It doesn't
:10:02. > :10:02.current fiscal regime. It doesn't current fiscal regime. It doesn't
:10:03. > :10:03.talk about the leavers that the talk about the leavers that the
:10:03. > :10:06.talk about the leavers that the Scottish Government might have, and
:10:06. > :10:07.Scottish Government might have, and Scottish Government might have, and
:10:07. > :10:08.in fact, the leaked document itself in fact, the leaked document itself
:10:08. > :10:10.in fact, the leaked document itself doesn't allude to any additional
:10:10. > :10:12.doesn't allude to any additional doesn't allude to any additional
:10:12. > :10:13.powers being used to generate a powers being used to generate a
:10:13. > :10:14.significant additional growth or significant additional growth or
:10:14. > :10:15.significant additional growth or significant additional growth or
:10:15. > :10:16.indeed tax Reeve knew, so we have indeed tax Reeve knew, so we have
:10:16. > :10:18.indeed tax Reeve knew, so we have indeed tax Reeve knew, so we have
:10:18. > :10:18.to hold in the back of our minds to hold in the back of our minds
:10:18. > :10:20.to hold in the back of our minds to hold in the back of our minds
:10:20. > :10:21.that this is a very static picture that this is a very static picture
:10:21. > :10:22.that this is a very static picture of the current spending... That
:10:22. > :10:23.of the current spending... That of the current spending... That
:10:23. > :10:25.slightly surprised me. What would slightly surprised me. What would
:10:25. > :10:27.slightly surprised me. What would you suggest would be available to
:10:27. > :10:28.you suggest would be available to you suggest would be available to
:10:28. > :10:30.them because we don't really have them because we don't really have
:10:30. > :10:31.them because we don't really have any specific proposals, do we?
:10:31. > :10:32.any specific proposals, do we? any specific proposals, do we?
:10:32. > :10:33.don't, but the document itself don't, but the document itself
:10:33. > :10:34.don't, but the document itself doesn't talk about scenarios which
:10:34. > :10:35.doesn't talk about scenarios which suggest let's fundamentally change
:10:35. > :10:36.suggest let's fundamentally change suggest let's fundamentally change
:10:36. > :10:37.suggest let's fundamentally change - and use leavers in a different
:10:37. > :10:38.- and use leavers in a different - and use leavers in a different
:10:38. > :10:40.way. It suggests we're going to way. It suggests we're going to
:10:40. > :10:41.way. It suggests we're going to continue to use the leavers as
:10:41. > :10:43.continue to use the leavers as continue to use the leavers as
:10:43. > :10:44.they're currently being used. they're currently being used.
:10:44. > :10:45.they're currently being used. think there are options.
:10:45. > :10:46.think there are options. Scottish Government themselves talk
:10:47. > :10:48.Scottish Government themselves talk Scottish Government themselves talk
:10:48. > :10:49.about options. They talk about about options. They talk about
:10:49. > :10:50.about options. They talk about about options. They talk about
:10:50. > :10:53.using the fiscal powers in a way using the fiscal powers in a way
:10:53. > :10:55.using the fiscal powers in a way that would to either use lower
:10:55. > :10:58.that would to either use lower corporation taxes or encouraging
:10:58. > :10:59.corporation taxes or encouraging investment in Scotland, generate
:10:59. > :11:00.investment in Scotland, generate additional growth, additional
:11:00. > :11:01.additional growth, additional additional growth, additional
:11:01. > :11:01.employment. None of that is employment. None of that is
:11:02. > :11:02.employment. None of that is discussed in the document. Whether
:11:03. > :11:04.discussed in the document. Whether discussed in the document. Whether
:11:04. > :11:05.discussed in the document. Whether the document is a full document and
:11:05. > :11:06.the document is a full document and the document is a full document and
:11:06. > :11:08.whether that's discussed in another whether that's discussed in another
:11:08. > :11:09.whether that's discussed in another part of the document is difficult
:11:09. > :11:10.part of the document is difficult part of the document is difficult
:11:10. > :11:11.part of the document is difficult to tell. Right. OK. Thank you very
:11:11. > :11:12.much. much.
:11:12. > :11:13.much. I'm joined now from Edinburgh by
:11:13. > :11:13.I'm joined now from Edinburgh by I'm joined now from Edinburgh by
:11:13. > :11:14.the local Government Minister Derek the local Government Minister Derek
:11:14. > :11:15.the local Government Minister Derek Mackay and here in Glasgow by
:11:15. > :11:19.Mackay and here in Glasgow by Labour's finance spokesman, Ken
:11:19. > :11:21.Macintosh. Macintosh.
:11:21. > :11:22.Macintosh. Macintosh.
:11:22. > :11:22.What do you make of this, Derek What do you make of this, Derek
:11:22. > :11:24.What do you make of this, Derek Mackay, that John Swinney himself
:11:24. > :11:25.Mackay, that John Swinney himself Mackay, that John Swinney himself
:11:25. > :11:26.seems to be suggesting that an seems to be suggesting that an
:11:26. > :11:27.seems to be suggesting that an independent Scotland by 2016 would
:11:27. > :11:28.independent Scotland by 2016 would independent Scotland by 2016 would
:11:28. > :11:30.independent Scotland by 2016 would have a larger budget deficit as a
:11:30. > :11:31.have a larger budget deficit as a have a larger budget deficit as a
:11:31. > :11:32.have a larger budget deficit as a proportion of GDP than the UK?
:11:32. > :11:34.proportion of GDP than the UK? proportion of GDP than the UK?
:11:34. > :11:35.I think that the analysis shows I think that the analysis shows
:11:35. > :11:36.I think that the analysis shows that Scotland's fiscal strength is
:11:36. > :11:37.that Scotland's fiscal strength is that Scotland's fiscal strength is
:11:38. > :11:38.actually stronger in relative terms actually stronger in relative terms
:11:38. > :11:39.actually stronger in relative terms actually stronger in relative terms
:11:39. > :11:40.than the rest of the United Kingdom, than the rest of the United Kingdom,
:11:40. > :11:42.than the rest of the United Kingdom, and... It doesn't. Sorry. I am
:11:42. > :11:45.and... It doesn't. Sorry. I am and... It doesn't. Sorry. I am
:11:45. > :11:46.talking about this document. It talking about this document. It
:11:46. > :11:48.talking about this document. It shows that by 2016-'17 although
:11:48. > :11:50.shows that by 2016-'17 although shows that by 2016-'17 although
:11:50. > :11:51.shows that by 2016-'17 although both the UK and Scotland have lower
:11:51. > :11:52.both the UK and Scotland have lower both the UK and Scotland have lower
:11:52. > :11:55.deficits because the economy is deficits because the economy is
:11:55. > :11:58.allegedly getting better, actually, allegedly getting better, actually,
:11:58. > :11:59.allegedly getting better, actually, the turnaround is that in 2016-'17
:11:59. > :12:00.the turnaround is that in 2016-'17 the turnaround is that in 2016-'17
:12:00. > :12:01.and from there onward, the deficit and from there onward, the deficit
:12:01. > :12:01.and from there onward, the deficit and from there onward, the deficit
:12:01. > :12:02.in Scotland is larger than it is in in Scotland is larger than it is in
:12:02. > :12:04.in Scotland is larger than it is in in Scotland is larger than it is in
:12:04. > :12:05.the UK. That was a modelling at a the UK. That was a modelling at a
:12:05. > :12:07.the UK. That was a modelling at a the UK. That was a modelling at a
:12:07. > :12:07.point in time based on the OBR point in time based on the OBR
:12:07. > :12:08.predictions, and certainly there predictions, and certainly there
:12:08. > :12:10.predictions, and certainly there has been great deal of movement
:12:10. > :12:12.has been great deal of movement has been great deal of movement
:12:12. > :12:13.since then. Yes, the OBR have since then. Yes, the OBR have
:12:13. > :12:14.downgraded their projections for downgraded their projections for
:12:15. > :12:16.downgraded their projections for oil revenues. The in temples of
:12:16. > :12:17.oil revenues. The in temples of oil revenues. The in temples of
:12:17. > :12:19.economic growth, that's a separate economic growth, that's a separate
:12:19. > :12:21.matter, specifically about oil. matter, specifically about oil.
:12:21. > :12:22.matter, specifically about oil. This is an important point, how
:12:22. > :12:23.This is an important point, how Scotland's fiscal position has
:12:23. > :12:25.Scotland's fiscal position has Scotland's fiscal position has
:12:25. > :12:26.Scotland's fiscal position has moved on since that pay. There is
:12:26. > :12:27.moved on since that pay. There is actually over �3 billion
:12:27. > :12:29.actually over �3 billion contributed to Scotland's economy
:12:29. > :12:29.contributed to Scotland's economy contributed to Scotland's economy
:12:29. > :12:31.contributed to Scotland's economy in terms of that figure because oil
:12:31. > :12:32.in terms of that figure because oil in terms of that figure because oil
:12:32. > :12:33.prices are higher than they prices are higher than they
:12:33. > :12:34.prices are higher than they prices are higher than they
:12:35. > :12:36.predicted - I think around $95 a predicted - I think around $95 a
:12:36. > :12:38.predicted - I think around $95 a barrel. The current price is about
:12:38. > :12:40.barrel. The current price is about barrel. The current price is about
:12:40. > :12:41.$115 a barrel. In a separate $115 a barrel. In a separate
:12:41. > :12:43.$115 a barrel. In a separate Government department in the UK,
:12:43. > :12:45.Government department in the UK, Government department in the UK,
:12:45. > :12:46.Government department in the UK, has forecast it to go to $132 a
:12:46. > :12:48.has forecast it to go to $132 a has forecast it to go to $132 a
:12:48. > :12:49.barrel. That is the first barrel. That is the first
:12:49. > :12:49.barrel. That is the first substantial shift since that report.
:12:49. > :12:50.substantial shift since that report. substantial shift since that report.
:12:50. > :12:51.substantial shift since that report. It was produced - it put Scotland
:12:51. > :12:52.It was produced - it put Scotland It was produced - it put Scotland
:12:52. > :12:54.in a much stronger financial in a much stronger financial
:12:54. > :12:55.in a much stronger financial in a much stronger financial
:12:55. > :12:56.position. So you don't know - sorry. position. So you don't know - sorry.
:12:56. > :12:58.position. So you don't know - sorry. Hang on. John Swinney says quite
:12:58. > :12:58.Hang on. John Swinney says quite Hang on. John Swinney says quite
:12:58. > :13:01.explicitly he accepts the OBR explicitly he accepts the OBR
:13:01. > :13:02.forecast for oil production forecast for oil production
:13:02. > :13:03.forecast for oil production revenues. You're now sayIng you
:13:03. > :13:04.revenues. You're now sayIng you revenues. You're now sayIng you
:13:04. > :13:05.don't accept them? No, that was don't accept them? No, that was
:13:05. > :13:05.don't accept them? No, that was don't accept them? No, that was
:13:05. > :13:06.forecast at that point in time. forecast at that point in time.
:13:07. > :13:07.forecast at that point in time. forecast at that point in time.
:13:07. > :13:08.forecast at that point in time. no. I have just read out to you the
:13:08. > :13:11.no. I have just read out to you the no. I have just read out to you the
:13:11. > :13:12.figures in December where the OBR figures in December where the OBR
:13:12. > :13:12.figures in December where the OBR are forecasting even lower revenue
:13:13. > :13:14.are forecasting even lower revenue are forecasting even lower revenue
:13:14. > :13:16.than Swinney was taking when he than Swinney was taking when he
:13:16. > :13:17.than Swinney was taking when he wrote his document in March.
:13:17. > :13:18.wrote his document in March. wrote his document in March.
:13:18. > :13:20.Reality is in the current position, Reality is in the current position,
:13:20. > :13:21.Reality is in the current position, �3 billion more is generated
:13:21. > :13:22.�3 billion more is generated �3 billion more is generated
:13:22. > :13:24.through the actual figures than through the actual figures than
:13:24. > :13:26.through the actual figures than forecast - the OBR produced...
:13:26. > :13:26.forecast - the OBR produced... forecast - the OBR produced...
:13:26. > :13:27.enough. When that document was enough. When that document was
:13:27. > :13:29.enough. When that document was published over a year ago. The
:13:29. > :13:31.published over a year ago. The published over a year ago. The
:13:31. > :13:32.published over a year ago. The debate has moved on. The debate has
:13:32. > :13:33.debate has moved on. The debate has debate has moved on. The debate has
:13:33. > :13:43.moved on! Which shows Scotland is moved on! Which shows Scotland is
:13:43. > :13:50.
:13:50. > :13:51.moved on! Which shows Scotland is I actually thought that the one
:13:51. > :13:52.I actually thought that the one I actually thought that the one
:13:52. > :13:54.I actually thought that the one benefit of this document is that it
:13:54. > :13:55.benefit of this document is that it benefit of this document is that it
:13:55. > :13:56.reveals the difference between the reveals the difference between the
:13:56. > :13:58.private utterances and public private utterances and public
:13:58. > :13:59.private utterances and public debate that we are having about
:13:59. > :14:01.debate that we are having about debate that we are having about
:14:01. > :14:03.Scotland's future. The truth is Scotland's future. The truth is
:14:03. > :14:04.Scotland's future. The truth is revealed in this document. At least
:14:05. > :14:05.revealed in this document. At least revealed in this document. At least
:14:05. > :14:07.revealed in this document. At least we will get some honesty in the
:14:07. > :14:09.we will get some honesty in the we will get some honesty in the
:14:09. > :14:10.debate about the constitution. But debate about the constitution. But
:14:10. > :14:12.debate about the constitution. But debate about the constitution. But
:14:12. > :14:13.clearly, that was a vague hope -- a clearly, that was a vague hope -- a
:14:13. > :14:15.clearly, that was a vague hope -- a clearly, that was a vague hope -- a
:14:15. > :14:16.vain hope. On the other side of vain hope. On the other side of
:14:16. > :14:18.vain hope. On the other side of this, of course they are being
:14:18. > :14:19.this, of course they are being realistic, but an independent
:14:20. > :14:21.realistic, but an independent realistic, but an independent
:14:21. > :14:22.Scotland would be a perfectly Scotland would be a perfectly
:14:22. > :14:24.Scotland would be a perfectly viable economy according to this
:14:24. > :14:24.viable economy according to this viable economy according to this
:14:24. > :14:26.leaked document. And as Jo leaked document. And as Jo
:14:26. > :14:27.leaked document. And as Jo Armstrong was pointing out earlier,
:14:27. > :14:28.Armstrong was pointing out earlier, Armstrong was pointing out earlier,
:14:28. > :14:29.Armstrong was pointing out earlier, it does not talk about the things
:14:29. > :14:31.it does not talk about the things it does not talk about the things
:14:31. > :14:33.that the Scottish government could that the Scottish government could
:14:33. > :14:38.that the Scottish government could that the Scottish government could
:14:38. > :14:39.do to try to help the economy. do to try to help the economy.
:14:39. > :14:41.do to try to help the economy. trouble with this document is that
:14:41. > :14:43.trouble with this document is that trouble with this document is that
:14:43. > :14:44.independence is not the magic independence is not the magic
:14:44. > :14:48.independence is not the magic bullet. The SNP government keep
:14:48. > :14:49.bullet. The SNP government keep deferring decisions and saying
:14:49. > :14:50.deferring decisions and saying deferring decisions and saying
:14:51. > :14:52.deferring decisions and saying everything will be all right if we
:14:52. > :14:54.everything will be all right if we everything will be all right if we
:14:54. > :14:55.vote Yes in the referendum next vote Yes in the referendum next
:14:55. > :14:56.vote Yes in the referendum next year. We will have full fiscal
:14:56. > :14:58.year. We will have full fiscal year. We will have full fiscal
:14:58. > :14:59.powers. They imply that we will powers. They imply that we will
:14:59. > :15:02.powers. They imply that we will have higher benefits and lower
:15:02. > :15:03.have higher benefits and lower have higher benefits and lower
:15:03. > :15:06.taxes. That is very implausible and taxes. That is very implausible and
:15:06. > :15:08.taxes. That is very implausible and they don't believe it themselves.
:15:08. > :15:09.they don't believe it themselves. they don't believe it themselves.
:15:09. > :15:15.That is absolutely not the case. That is absolutely not the case.
:15:15. > :15:16.That is absolutely not the case. Even on the worst case scenario,
:15:16. > :15:18.Even on the worst case scenario, Even on the worst case scenario,
:15:18. > :15:20.Even on the worst case scenario, Scotland would be in a surplus of
:15:20. > :15:21.Scotland would be in a surplus of Scotland would be in a surplus of
:15:21. > :15:25.Scotland would be in a surplus of some �16 billion by 2016 on the
:15:25. > :15:26.some �16 billion by 2016 on the most conservative forecast.
:15:26. > :15:27.most conservative forecast. most conservative forecast.
:15:27. > :15:29.Analysis shows that Scotland would Analysis shows that Scotland would
:15:29. > :15:30.Analysis shows that Scotland would Analysis shows that Scotland would
:15:30. > :15:32.be better off to the tune of �4 be better off to the tune of �4
:15:32. > :15:34.be better off to the tune of �4 billion and one financial year. Per
:15:34. > :15:36.billion and one financial year. Per billion and one financial year. Per
:15:36. > :15:39.head of population and that is head of population and that is
:15:39. > :15:40.head of population and that is head of population and that is
:15:40. > :15:41.quite a lot. If you don't accept quite a lot. If you don't accept
:15:41. > :15:43.quite a lot. If you don't accept the figures for oil revenues that
:15:43. > :15:43.the figures for oil revenues that the figures for oil revenues that
:15:43. > :15:46.the figures for oil revenues that will publish by the a BR, despite
:15:46. > :15:47.will publish by the a BR, despite will publish by the a BR, despite
:15:48. > :15:54.will publish by the a BR, despite the fact that John Swinney says he
:15:54. > :16:01.the fact that John Swinney says he the fact that John Swinney says he
:16:01. > :16:03.the fact that John Swinney says he does accept them.... Pat -- that is
:16:03. > :16:06.does accept them.... Pat -- that is does accept them.... Pat -- that is
:16:06. > :16:10.not the case. They are suggesting not the case. They are suggesting
:16:10. > :16:11.not the case. They are suggesting not the case. They are suggesting
:16:11. > :16:12.that that a decline in oil price of that that a decline in oil price of
:16:13. > :16:13.that that a decline in oil price of �4.5 billion, what figures do you
:16:14. > :16:14.�4.5 billion, what figures do you �4.5 billion, what figures do you
:16:14. > :16:15.�4.5 billion, what figures do you have it as a projection that you
:16:15. > :16:16.have it as a projection that you have it as a projection that you
:16:16. > :16:19.the Scottish government are using, the Scottish government are using,
:16:19. > :16:21.the Scottish government are using, that a different? We will be
:16:21. > :16:24.that a different? We will be producing more financial
:16:25. > :16:26.producing more financial producing more financial
:16:26. > :16:27.information shortly. To get this information shortly. To get this
:16:27. > :16:27.information shortly. To get this information shortly. To get this
:16:27. > :16:28.clear, are you saying that as a clear, are you saying that as a
:16:28. > :16:29.clear, are you saying that as a clear, are you saying that as a
:16:29. > :16:31.matter of fact that you never -- matter of fact that you never --
:16:31. > :16:32.matter of fact that you never -- that you no longer accept the
:16:32. > :16:33.that you no longer accept the that you no longer accept the
:16:33. > :16:36.that you no longer accept the though BR figures and you have a
:16:36. > :16:39.though BR figures and you have a though BR figures and you have a
:16:39. > :16:41.though BR figures and you have a new set of figures of all revenue
:16:41. > :16:44.new set of figures of all revenue new set of figures of all revenue
:16:44. > :16:45.predictions -- of oil revenue predictions -- of oil revenue
:16:45. > :16:46.predictions -- of oil revenue predictions? You keep reading out
:16:46. > :16:48.predictions? You keep reading out predictions? You keep reading out
:16:48. > :16:51.predictions? You keep reading out an old set of figures. This is from
:16:51. > :16:52.an old set of figures. This is from an old set of figures. This is from
:16:52. > :16:56.December of last year. The forecast December of last year. The forecast
:16:56. > :16:57.December of last year. The forecast December of last year. The forecast
:16:57. > :16:59.is up by �3 billion. We know all is up by �3 billion. We know all
:16:59. > :17:00.is up by �3 billion. We know all prices are volatile, they say there
:17:00. > :17:02.prices are volatile, they say there prices are volatile, they say there
:17:02. > :17:04.prices are volatile, they say there will be a decline. I am asking if
:17:04. > :17:05.will be a decline. I am asking if will be a decline. I am asking if
:17:05. > :17:06.you have different figures. you have different figures.
:17:06. > :17:07.you have different figures. figures be published today show
:17:07. > :17:08.figures be published today show figures be published today show
:17:08. > :17:10.figures be published today show that for every man woman and child
:17:10. > :17:12.that for every man woman and child that for every man woman and child
:17:12. > :17:13.in Scotland, they would be many in Scotland, they would be many
:17:13. > :17:15.in Scotland, they would be many pounds better off. The that is
:17:15. > :17:17.pounds better off. The that is completely different. There are
:17:17. > :17:22.completely different. There are completely different. There are
:17:22. > :17:22.other assumptions from that Cabinet other assumptions from that Cabinet
:17:22. > :17:24.other assumptions from that Cabinet paper. There are assumptions on
:17:24. > :17:27.paper. There are assumptions on defence. The assignation to
:17:27. > :17:29.defence. The assignation to defence. The assignation to
:17:29. > :17:30.expenditure in Scotland of �2.9 expenditure in Scotland of �2.9
:17:30. > :17:33.expenditure in Scotland of �2.9 million, and that will expenditure
:17:34. > :17:34.million, and that will expenditure million, and that will expenditure
:17:34. > :17:36.million, and that will expenditure is �2 billion. -- �2.9 billion and
:17:36. > :17:37.is �2 billion. -- �2.9 billion and is �2 billion. -- �2.9 billion and
:17:37. > :17:39.actual expenditure is �2 billion. actual expenditure is �2 billion.
:17:39. > :17:41.actual expenditure is �2 billion. That is quite different. That shows
:17:41. > :17:44.That is quite different. That shows That is quite different. That shows
:17:44. > :17:45.a room for manoeuvre and financial a room for manoeuvre and financial
:17:45. > :17:50.flexibility. The UK Government's flexibility. The UK Government's
:17:50. > :18:00.flexibility. The UK Government's figures show that Scotland more
:18:00. > :18:02.
:18:02. > :18:06.figures show that Scotland more He talks about the volatility of
:18:06. > :18:10.He talks about the volatility of He talks about the volatility of
:18:10. > :18:13.oil prices and the a sustainability oil prices and the a sustainability
:18:13. > :18:16.oil prices and the a sustainability of a depleting resources. He talks
:18:16. > :18:18.of a depleting resources. He talks of a depleting resources. He talks
:18:18. > :18:19.about potential cuts and pensions about potential cuts and pensions
:18:19. > :18:20.about potential cuts and pensions about potential cuts and pensions
:18:20. > :18:22.and spending. I will give you a and spending. I will give you a
:18:22. > :18:24.and spending. I will give you a figure. Scotland in terms of
:18:24. > :18:26.figure. Scotland in terms of figure. Scotland in terms of
:18:26. > :18:28.wholesale value of oil can extract wholesale value of oil can extract
:18:28. > :18:28.wholesale value of oil can extract another 1.5 trillion pounds of
:18:28. > :18:29.another 1.5 trillion pounds of another 1.5 trillion pounds of
:18:29. > :18:33.another 1.5 trillion pounds of revenue from oil and gas. What a
:18:33. > :18:34.revenue from oil and gas. What a revenue from oil and gas. What a
:18:34. > :18:35.terrible weapon the -- have terrible weapon the -- have
:18:35. > :18:36.terrible weapon the -- have terrible for his country to be
:18:36. > :18:39.terrible for his country to be blessed with those natural
:18:39. > :18:40.blessed with those natural blessed with those natural
:18:40. > :18:41.resources. We can be independent in resources. We can be independent in
:18:41. > :18:44.resources. We can be independent in resources. We can be independent in
:18:44. > :18:47.all. Isn't it time that we had a all. Isn't it time that we had a
:18:47. > :18:49.all. Isn't it time that we had a government who did not spend oil
:18:49. > :18:50.government who did not spend oil government who did not spend oil
:18:50. > :18:53.three times over, and got the three times over, and got the
:18:53. > :18:56.three times over, and got the economy going again. Hang on Derek
:18:56. > :19:00.economy going again. Hang on Derek economy going again. Hang on Derek
:19:00. > :19:01.Mackay, you would at least accept, Mackay, you would at least accept,
:19:01. > :19:04.Mackay, you would at least accept, let show you some of tomorrow's
:19:04. > :19:05.let show you some of tomorrow's let show you some of tomorrow's
:19:05. > :19:08.papers. The Scottish Daily Mail papers. The Scottish Daily Mail
:19:08. > :19:09.front page headline, sleepwalking front page headline, sleepwalking
:19:09. > :19:11.front page headline, sleepwalking to disaster. The explosive least
:19:11. > :19:12.to disaster. The explosive least to disaster. The explosive least
:19:12. > :19:13.SNP document that shows that the SNP document that shows that the
:19:13. > :19:14.SNP document that shows that the SNP document that shows that the
:19:14. > :19:17.party has known for years about the party has known for years about the
:19:17. > :19:20.party has known for years about the huge problems facing Scotland. The
:19:20. > :19:21.huge problems facing Scotland. The huge problems facing Scotland. The
:19:21. > :19:23.Scotsman headline, leaked plans to Scotsman headline, leaked plans to
:19:23. > :19:24.Scotsman headline, leaked plans to Scotsman headline, leaked plans to
:19:24. > :19:26.cut spending of the SNP. You can cut spending of the SNP. You can
:19:26. > :19:27.cut spending of the SNP. You can cut spending of the SNP. You can
:19:27. > :19:28.hardly spin this as good news? hardly spin this as good news?
:19:28. > :19:30.hardly spin this as good news? wouldn't rely on those headlines in
:19:30. > :19:31.wouldn't rely on those headlines in wouldn't rely on those headlines in
:19:31. > :19:33.this instance. We are not proposing this instance. We are not proposing
:19:33. > :19:35.this instance. We are not proposing to cut spending. If you take
:19:35. > :19:35.to cut spending. If you take to cut spending. If you take
:19:35. > :19:38.defence fallen example, we are defence fallen example, we are
:19:38. > :19:39.defence fallen example, we are planning to spend more. The
:19:39. > :19:40.planning to spend more. The planning to spend more. The
:19:40. > :19:41.planning to spend more. The certainty we have from the UK is
:19:41. > :19:42.certainty we have from the UK is certainty we have from the UK is
:19:42. > :19:43.that they will reduce spending. that they will reduce spending.
:19:43. > :19:44.that they will reduce spending. that they will reduce spending.
:19:44. > :19:45.That is what they have been doing That is what they have been doing
:19:45. > :19:45.That is what they have been doing That is what they have been doing
:19:45. > :19:49.and propose to do if we continue and propose to do if we continue
:19:49. > :19:50.and propose to do if we continue and propose to do if we continue
:19:50. > :19:55.with the union. Plenty of the UK's with the union. Plenty of the UK's
:19:55. > :19:55.with the union. Plenty of the UK's with the union. Plenty of the UK's
:19:56. > :19:56.leaked documents from the 70s.... leaked documents from the 70s....
:19:56. > :20:01.leaked documents from the 70s.... leaked documents from the 70s....
:20:01. > :20:03.want to change the subject for a want to change the subject for a
:20:03. > :20:03.moment. Douglas Alexander talked moment. Douglas Alexander talked
:20:03. > :20:05.moment. Douglas Alexander talked about having a national convention
:20:05. > :20:06.about having a national convention about having a national convention
:20:06. > :20:07.about having a national convention if the people voted no, to vote
:20:07. > :20:08.if the people voted no, to vote if the people voted no, to vote
:20:08. > :20:09.if the people voted no, to vote what all the parties can agree on
:20:09. > :20:10.what all the parties can agree on what all the parties can agree on
:20:10. > :20:12.what all the parties can agree on for the future of Scotland. I am
:20:12. > :20:13.for the future of Scotland. I am for the future of Scotland. I am
:20:13. > :20:14.curious as to whether the Scottish curious as to whether the Scottish
:20:14. > :20:16.curious as to whether the Scottish Labour Party would agree with that
:20:16. > :20:17.Labour Party would agree with that Labour Party would agree with that
:20:17. > :20:23.Labour Party would agree with that proposal? It is one that we will
:20:23. > :20:27.proposal? It is one that we will certainly discuss. Instead of
:20:27. > :20:30.certainly discuss. Instead of certainly discuss. Instead of
:20:30. > :20:32.having this discussion.... You are having this discussion.... You are
:20:32. > :20:33.having this discussion.... You are planning now. We should talk
:20:33. > :20:35.planning now. We should talk through what devolution is.
:20:35. > :20:37.through what devolution is. through what devolution is.
:20:37. > :20:38.Devolution is here to stay. Would Devolution is here to stay. Would
:20:39. > :20:40.Devolution is here to stay. Would you support a national convention?
:20:40. > :20:42.you support a national convention? you support a national convention?
:20:43. > :20:44.you support a national convention? I'm not that against the idea.
:20:44. > :20:46.I'm not that against the idea. I'm not that against the idea.
:20:46. > :20:47.you think there are Scottish issues you think there are Scottish issues
:20:47. > :20:50.you think there are Scottish issues which are not just between Labour
:20:50. > :20:51.which are not just between Labour which are not just between Labour
:20:51. > :20:52.and the other parties? Because it and the other parties? Because it
:20:52. > :20:54.and the other parties? Because it is specifically supposed to be
:20:54. > :20:55.is specifically supposed to be is specifically supposed to be
:20:55. > :20:57.about other things in the about other things in the
:20:57. > :21:00.about other things in the constitution. I do not agree with
:21:00. > :21:01.constitution. I do not agree with that interpretation. Devolution can
:21:01. > :21:02.that interpretation. Devolution can that interpretation. Devolution can
:21:02. > :21:06.deliver for the people of Scotland. deliver for the people of Scotland.
:21:06. > :21:10.We don't need independence. We don't need independence.
:21:10. > :21:12.Devolution can deliver independent Devolution can deliver independent