:00:28. > :00:33.As three soldiers died and another six are seriously injured in
:00:33. > :00:40.Afghanistan, we looked at the dangers as Western troops prepare
:00:40. > :00:42.to leave. Good evening. Today, the Commons Foreign Affairs Committee
:00:42. > :00:46.warned that Scottish independence could damage the international
:00:46. > :00:49.standing of the rest of the UK and raises all sorts of unanswered
:00:49. > :00:51.questions about Scotland. It is the latest in a long series of reports
:00:51. > :00:53.emanating from Westminster or Whitehall, questioning the
:00:53. > :00:56.consequences of a yes vote in the referendum. The nationalists may
:00:56. > :00:59.have their rebuttals ready but for now seem constantly on the
:00:59. > :01:07.defensive. Concerns are already being voiced that they need to get
:01:07. > :01:15.off the back foot and start making headlines themselves. Another day,
:01:15. > :01:19.another report on the perceived dangers of Scottish independence.
:01:19. > :01:25.Today, Westminster's foreign affairs committee said a yes vote
:01:25. > :01:30.could damage the reputation of the rest of the UK. The report's
:01:30. > :01:34.publication provoked the usual response. There are some really
:01:34. > :01:42.difficult foreign policy issues here, which have not been subject
:01:42. > :01:49.to the kind of evidence and support that those arguing for independence
:01:49. > :01:55.have been obliged to provide. would be better to address
:01:55. > :02:00.fundamental strengths as opposed to worrying about size. As the
:02:00. > :02:03.Independent's campaign continues. There has been a series of reports
:02:03. > :02:10.concerned that bad things might happen to Scotland if the country
:02:10. > :02:15.goes it alone. There is one from the foreign affairs committee. It
:02:15. > :02:20.is about shipyards. The same committee warned ridding Scotland
:02:20. > :02:25.of Trident nuclear weapons could be difficult and expensive. The UK
:02:25. > :02:34.government has also had a go - suggesting an independent Scotland
:02:34. > :02:40.would have to negotiate its weight in the world. Does this report get
:02:41. > :02:44.to the crux of the debate? Last month, a committee criticised both
:02:44. > :02:50.Scottish and UK government for failing to set up the post
:02:50. > :02:56.referendum landscape, whichever way the vote goes. Does this mean pro-
:02:56. > :03:00.independence campaigners are always on the back foot? On this series of
:03:00. > :03:06.issues, it is the latest issue. Opponents have been able to take
:03:06. > :03:15.pot shots at them. What is going to happen? There is not a clear answer
:03:16. > :03:21.- a policy position coming back. It is the caricature of the point.
:03:21. > :03:27.They say it is about much more bank committee reports. The yes campaign
:03:27. > :03:31.is based on Scotland knowing what it takes to be an independent
:03:31. > :03:38.country. It makes Scott and a fairer place. That is what people
:03:39. > :03:45.love talking about on the streets. -- it makes Scotland. It is in
:03:45. > :03:48.community halls, on the doorstep. That is how we will win a campaign.
:03:48. > :03:54.Does the campaign for the union feel it needs to change the
:03:54. > :03:59.approach? I have a positive vision of where I would like Scotland to
:03:59. > :04:04.be. It is part of the United Kingdom. That is the best option
:04:04. > :04:09.for Scotland. That is what a would seek to retain. I think we have to
:04:09. > :04:13.make sure that the Scottish government wants to make the big
:04:13. > :04:18.change and answer the questions everyone else is asking.
:04:18. > :04:25.Scottish Government has a ready published a few independents
:04:25. > :04:31.insights but the Big Bang is coming later this shared. The opponents of
:04:31. > :04:35.SMP well continue to ask questions they say are not being answered. --
:04:35. > :04:38.the SNP. I'm joined now from Edinburgh by the journalist and
:04:38. > :04:48.commentator Lesley Riddoch and by Iain Macwhirter who writes for the
:04:48. > :04:52.
:04:52. > :04:59.Herald. This latest report that it is part of a long line. You do feel
:04:59. > :05:04.it is too quiet. It does seem to be a back foot problem. Every time
:05:04. > :05:13.something is said, it does make it stand up IQ are feeding the rumour
:05:13. > :05:19.by commenting on air - you are feeling the concern. -- it like you
:05:19. > :05:25.are feeding the rumour. If you think about that, it is a very high
:05:25. > :05:31.threshold. It does not tell you how many people are sitting in the same
:05:31. > :05:37.position may have been for a while, which is mulling it over. When it
:05:37. > :05:45.is that ever going to come? I have spoken to many nationalists tonight.
:05:45. > :05:49.They are very much praising Alexander the arch strategist.
:05:49. > :05:55.There is a tight and small group around him, who must know what
:05:55. > :06:03.they're doing. Beyond that, there is an enormous amount of activity
:06:03. > :06:09.at local level. One week=112 event Sky including nine public meetings
:06:09. > :06:15.with 100 people at each. That is not reaching the undecided group -
:06:16. > :06:25.those who are constantly asked their opinions in some poor opinion
:06:26. > :06:27.
:06:27. > :06:35.polls. What do you think is going on? -- in some poor opinion polls.
:06:35. > :06:42.The SNP wanted Independent he Germany. That seems to be a long
:06:42. > :06:49.time ago. The danger for the SNP is the story is now gnats on the ramp
:06:49. > :06:59.for pensions, NATO, you name it. - Bezunesh Bekele the nationalists.
:06:59. > :07:02.
:07:02. > :07:07.It is -- the story is now up nationalists on the run for
:07:07. > :07:16.pensions, NATO, you name it. They cleared the decks for the
:07:16. > :07:21.referendum campaign. The opposition is running all over the decks. Alex
:07:21. > :07:27.Salmond is very relaxed about this coverage. He does not think that
:07:27. > :07:32.newspapers have the same resonance, the same significance. They are a
:07:32. > :07:37.shadow of their former selves. Attention is focused on television.
:07:37. > :07:41.He has been speaking to the new director-general of the BBC and
:07:41. > :07:46.senior people in commercial television to try to get the ground
:07:46. > :07:49.rules fixed for the way in which the campaign will be handled. Then
:07:49. > :07:55.there will be a white paper in November when all the answers will
:07:55. > :08:01.be out. Everyone is expecting that Alex Salmond will win it. There is
:08:01. > :08:09.a mood music thing here. The more you let it go the other way, the
:08:09. > :08:15.more you will let it catch up. Gordon Brown found after 2007, when
:08:15. > :08:20.coverage changed dramatically, he was the defensive thereafter. John
:08:20. > :08:25.Major discovered after the back-to- basics episode in 1994, it was
:08:25. > :08:30.difficult for him to get traction in the media. The iron law of the
:08:30. > :08:35.battle is that you have to get your story out with him the first 24
:08:35. > :08:39.hours or the opposition story becomes conventional wisdom.
:08:39. > :08:45.Something has gone badly wrong with the rebuttal energy the SMP used to
:08:45. > :08:55.have. This is the Government. The SNP has the Scottish Government.
:08:55. > :09:03.They command the front pages of the newspapers, bake only -- they own
:09:03. > :09:08.the grid. Do you think there has been excessive caution? Take the
:09:08. > :09:17.speech by George Osborne. He has said quite should Scotland vote for
:09:17. > :09:23.independence, it would be unlikely to find a currency acceptable or
:09:23. > :09:29.desirable. They come over as so desperate to have UK institutions
:09:29. > :09:36.like sterling. Also the Bank of England. It is very easy for their
:09:36. > :09:42.opponents. Do not vote for independence. That is true. Here we
:09:42. > :09:49.are discussing there's any kind of curious and pondering Wade tonight.
:09:49. > :09:56.-- discussing this in a kind of curious and pondering way tonight.
:09:56. > :10:05.We need to find her what is going on. There is a slight uncertainty
:10:05. > :10:11.as to who is leading this stance. I think, also... That is a problem as
:10:11. > :10:14.well. To take the same example of currency, when the leader of the
:10:14. > :10:20.yes campaign and the leader of the SNP are saying to different things
:10:20. > :10:23.about the same issue and the SNP is trying to shock people Baker tapas
:10:23. > :10:32.and when the head of the yes campaign is saying, that is the
:10:32. > :10:36.last thing that will happen. There is a crossing of wires. If you were
:10:36. > :10:40.to focus the same sort of critical energy on all members of the
:10:40. > :10:47.British coalition at the moment, one of any policy but so were the,
:10:47. > :10:54.you would find the same sort of dissonance. That is a difficult one
:10:54. > :10:59.for the Yes camp. They both think they should be doing it. That is
:10:59. > :11:07.not the real problem. If someone like George Osborne could come up
:11:07. > :11:12.to Scotland and get a fair hearing, something is going seriously wrong.
:11:12. > :11:18.Looking at this foreign affairs committee report! They're talking
:11:18. > :11:24.about difficulties presented to the residual UK. The big problem for
:11:24. > :11:28.the UK were to beat it would very likely lose its seat in the
:11:28. > :11:32.Security Council of the United Nations and its status and position
:11:32. > :11:36.in Europe. They have to take these things and turn it around. Exactly
:11:36. > :11:41.the same with the pound. George Osborne cannot stop Scotland using
:11:41. > :11:46.the pound if they want to use it. They can have a Scottish currency
:11:46. > :11:56.against the pound as well. That is what countries like Denmark had
:11:56. > :12:00.
:12:00. > :12:09.been doing. Today, three soldiers from the Royal Regiment of Scotland
:12:09. > :12:16.were killed in Helmand province. The deaths bring the number of service
:12:16. > :12:21.personnel killed since operations began to 444.
:12:21. > :12:28.At the soldiers base, flags were lowered for their comrades. 56
:12:28. > :12:38.soldiers left six weeks ago for a tool to Afghanistan. Tonight, they
:12:38. > :12:40.
:12:40. > :12:45.paid tribute to those who died. Samuel Flint from Blackpool was
:12:45. > :12:48.described by his family as the life and soul of the party. He was from
:12:48. > :12:54.the second Battalion the Royal Regiment of Scotland. Private Robert
:12:54. > :13:00.Hetherington was 25, warning the United States, he was raised in
:13:00. > :13:03.Scotland and was from a territorial Army Italian serving with two Scots.
:13:04. > :13:08.The six wounded were taken to the Queen Elizabeth Hospital in
:13:08. > :13:11.Birmingham under police escort this afternoon. The Prime Minister said
:13:11. > :13:16.the deaths are a reminder of the high price Britain has paid to give
:13:16. > :13:21.the country a chance of security in the future. It is important because
:13:21. > :13:27.it is vital that the country does not become a haven for terrorists
:13:27. > :13:34.began, terrorist that can threaten us in the UK. It is a reminder for
:13:34. > :13:39.those families that have suffered. It has been said that the bomb was
:13:39. > :13:49.aimed to inflict mass destruction. The men were travelling in a mast of
:13:49. > :13:49.
:13:49. > :13:52.armoured vehicle, regarded as one as the safest. -- one of the safest.
:13:52. > :13:57.Against this kind of great protection that troops are offered,
:13:57. > :14:04.the enemies build bigger and bigger bombs, so there is a constant battle
:14:04. > :14:09.against protection and the attack against that protection.
:14:09. > :14:13.battalion has another five months in their two to go. The Ministry of
:14:13. > :14:18.Defence says this highlights the threat against British personnel as
:14:18. > :14:22.they hand over security operations to the Afghan troops. NATO forces
:14:22. > :14:27.are due to withdraw by the end of the year from the area, but before
:14:27. > :14:31.then, there are concerns that insurgencies will increase attacks
:14:31. > :14:35.in the hope of achieving a propaganda coup by claiming to have
:14:35. > :14:40.chased Western soldiers from their country.
:14:40. > :14:45.We are joined by the foreign editor of the Sunday Herald David Pratt, he
:14:45. > :14:51.has visited Afghanistan since they were occupied by the Russians, the
:14:51. > :14:55.Soviets as they were called them. Let's try to paint a picture of what
:14:55. > :14:59.it is like in that area of Afghanistan, NATO troops
:14:59. > :15:06.withdrawing, but this is a small area where the conflict is
:15:06. > :15:11.happening. The conflict is shifting at the moment, we are entering the
:15:11. > :15:16.spring period known as the fighting season in Afghanistan. The Taliban
:15:16. > :15:19.has announced they will launch a spring offensive, but that is
:15:19. > :15:23.misleading, because fighting continues across Afghanistan all
:15:23. > :15:29.through the year, but the weather impacts on as dramatically. In
:15:29. > :15:34.Helmand read this bomb strike has taken place, the weather is less of
:15:34. > :15:38.an inhibiting factor as it is in the mountainous regions where the
:15:38. > :15:43.insurgents rely on supply routes and logistical routes that can be closed
:15:43. > :15:48.off by the winter weather. It is restricted and it is intense in
:15:48. > :15:53.Helmand at the moment, but I suspect that we will see a shift of
:15:53. > :15:58.battlefield dynamics here, because as the coalition draws down, the
:15:58. > :16:03.Afghan army will take responsibility more and more and something like 80%
:16:03. > :16:07.of the forward operating bases, these small, exposed foldable bases
:16:07. > :16:11.that the coalition troops occupied before, these are now being dozed
:16:11. > :16:16.down or handed over to the Afghan army, so there would be a shift up
:16:16. > :16:19.into the east of the country away from Helmand read this happened. It
:16:19. > :16:25.will come as no consolation to the families and loved ones of those
:16:25. > :16:28.killed, it actually comes at a time when the Taliban are focusing
:16:28. > :16:35.attention on their own Afghan National Army rather than coalition
:16:35. > :16:43.forces. There are large areas in Afghanistan where there is no
:16:44. > :16:49.conflict. Yes, in the north-west, there may be sporadic clashes and
:16:49. > :16:52.the odd incident, but certainly roadside bombs, to put things in
:16:52. > :16:58.live, three British soldiers were tragically killed yesterday, but in
:16:58. > :17:04.average, Afghan soldiers die every day from roadside bombs appearing
:17:04. > :17:07.across the country. Coming back to this, the forces, with our forces
:17:08. > :17:12.and the rest of the NATO forces, they will be out of there and
:17:12. > :17:18.handing over to the Afghan army, their hope was that they could
:17:18. > :17:24.provide security to stop the Taliban coming back. Is there a risk of a
:17:24. > :17:31.civil war if the conflict is confined only to a few places, or
:17:32. > :17:39.could it is turned very nasty? Speaking to Afghans that I have 4/2
:17:39. > :17:49.decades, there is an underlying fear of a potential new Civil War. --
:17:49. > :17:54.that I have known for over two decades. In the 1990s when the was a
:17:54. > :18:00.terrible civil war in Afghanistan, when it was on and ethnic basis
:18:00. > :18:02.between different tribes and warlords, we have created
:18:03. > :18:07.independent militias now in the countries which are allied to
:18:07. > :18:15.certain warlords and operate semiautonomous Lee in this way.
:18:15. > :18:21.There is a real danger that many of these militias will seek to protect
:18:21. > :18:26.their own positions. We could see a war that is not along ethnic lines
:18:26. > :18:30.but along lines of independent militias and warlords protecting
:18:30. > :18:37.vast profits made through drugs, private security firms that we help
:18:37. > :18:46.to kind of create. It is very difficult to believe that most of
:18:46. > :18:50.the people that people that are in favour of the Taliban are
:18:50. > :18:56.fundamentalist and would like a theocratic states, there is a bit of
:18:56. > :18:59.a conflict. Is it not an indictment of Western policy that in 12 years
:18:59. > :19:05.we have not negotiated with these people and the government in
:19:05. > :19:09.Afghanistan has not sorted this out? Yes, there are more than one
:19:09. > :19:19.Taliban, there is more than one Taliban, the Pakistan Taliban, the
:19:19. > :19:24.Afghan Taliban, there is a Taliban closer to Al-Qaeda that operate on a
:19:24. > :19:29.localised basis. As is being an indictment of our policy there, yes,
:19:29. > :19:33.we have failed quite miserably. If we look at the statistics,
:19:33. > :19:37.politicians constantly say that we have increased education and
:19:37. > :19:42.infrastructure and whatever, all of this is questionable. We are leaving
:19:42. > :19:47.Afghanistan in a terrible mess and there is a serial possibility of a
:19:47. > :19:51.terrible war. -- serious possibility of a civil war.
:19:51. > :19:58.That available at the front pages, and tributes paid to these three
:19:58. > :20:04.soldiers killed in Afghanistan. In the Scottish Daily Mail, again,
:20:04. > :20:14.pictures of the three soldiers and the headline, you can see it there.
:20:14. > :20:15.
:20:15. > :20:18.The Guardian, this is about the local elections. The daily