:00:02. > :00:12.While that trend continues Russia will remain on a very different
:00:12. > :00:26.
:00:26. > :00:30.to independence? This little ditty is the latest in a
:00:30. > :00:34.long line of protests against the so-called bedroom tax. But on the
:00:34. > :00:38.day an expert panel reports on the beat can exalt a Scottish welfare
:00:38. > :00:42.system, we ask if Scottish attitudes to social protection are really so
:00:42. > :00:45.different from those in the rest of the UK.
:00:45. > :00:49.A new report says an independent Scotland could have its own welfare
:00:49. > :00:52.state, but recommend staying with the UK system, at least for a few
:00:52. > :00:58.years. The Scottish Government claims it wants welfare based on
:00:58. > :01:01.Scottish values. It is clear the issue is emerging as a key one in
:01:01. > :01:08.the independence debate. But what are these Scottish values and how
:01:08. > :01:18.would the SNP's welfare state be any different?
:01:18. > :01:18.
:01:18. > :01:21.# You cannae have a spare room in a pokey council flat... # as the
:01:21. > :01:28.debate over Scotland's future continues, social welfare has
:01:28. > :01:32.emerged as one of these central issues in the case for independence.
:01:32. > :01:37.Today came some practical advice on the delivery of benefits which the
:01:37. > :01:41.Scottish Government seemed happy to accept. In terms of the
:01:41. > :01:43.Administration as opposed to the policy of welfare, the
:01:43. > :01:47.recommendation is for the transitional period of shared
:01:47. > :01:51.administration. That's insensible, not least because it is in the
:01:51. > :01:55.interests of the rest of the UK. The key thing for me in terms of welfare
:01:55. > :02:00.is the ability to design a welfare system that meets Scotland's
:02:01. > :02:07.circumstances. That is the SNP vision, but the former UK Chancellor
:02:07. > :02:11.questions its affordability. idea that there is a get out of jail
:02:11. > :02:14.card, it is nonsense will stop it is far better to share those burdens
:02:14. > :02:21.across the whole of the UK rather than take them on to a population of
:02:21. > :02:26.only 6 million. Today's report also provided some insight into how much
:02:26. > :02:29.money Scotland might have to spend on welfare in the future. So whether
:02:29. > :02:35.Scotland currently stand on benefits spends in comparison to other parts
:02:35. > :02:39.of the country? For Great Britain as a whole, the average figure is �2500
:02:39. > :02:43.per head of population. For Scotland, the figure is slightly
:02:43. > :02:47.higher, but still lower than in the north-east of England and Wales,
:02:48. > :02:51.though the figure is upwards of �3000 per head of population. The
:02:51. > :02:56.lowest figure is the south-east of England were benefits spending
:02:56. > :03:00.amounts to less than �2500. What kind of welfare Bill will Scotland
:03:00. > :03:06.have to cope with in the future? Right now, benefits spending in
:03:06. > :03:09.Scotland stands at �18.1 billion. In the event of a yes vote in the
:03:09. > :03:14.referendum, the Scottish Government is predicting independence to happen
:03:14. > :03:21.in 2016. By then, benefits spending is forecast to rise to �19.2
:03:21. > :03:31.billion. Looking further ahead to 2017 and 2018, the Bill is predicted
:03:31. > :03:35.
:03:35. > :03:38.to increase further still to �19.7 billion. But for the SNP, this whole
:03:39. > :03:48.issue is about more than just money. It speaks of values, Scottish
:03:49. > :03:49.
:03:49. > :03:52.values. Only real independence will give us the tools we need to rid
:03:52. > :03:57.Scotland of the poverty and the Deputy -- the deprivation that scars
:03:57. > :04:07.our nation. And create the jobs and opportunities that will get people
:04:07. > :04:12.off benefits, but not for Tory reasons, for the right reasons.
:04:12. > :04:20.does she have a point? This was the reception awaiting the Conservatives
:04:20. > :04:22.at a Scottish conference at the weekend. Back in March, the UK work
:04:22. > :04:29.and pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith had a similar encounter while
:04:29. > :04:33.making a speech in Edinburgh. So does all this proves the existence
:04:33. > :04:38.of distinctive Scottish values being trampled on by Westminster reforms?
:04:38. > :04:44.Maybe, but that is not just the SNP appealing to these values to make
:04:44. > :04:50.its case. Scottish values and Scottish beliefs have shaped the
:04:50. > :04:54.union over these last 300 years. It will continue if we are smart and do
:04:54. > :04:59.the right things to shape what is effectively a multinational union,
:04:59. > :05:04.one of the first that ever existed in the world. Do be think
:05:04. > :05:08.differently about these matters than others across the UK? Scotland is
:05:08. > :05:13.somewhat more favourable to the welfare system, typically on the
:05:13. > :05:18.kind of questions that might be asked where 60% of people think the
:05:18. > :05:23.welfare system is to cut back in anger. You'll find 60% of people in
:05:23. > :05:28.Scotland seeing the same thing. Scotland are a little more happy
:05:28. > :05:33.with the benefits system, but not that much more, and certainly not
:05:33. > :05:38.with more cuts. But opinion is not so dramatically different, perhaps
:05:38. > :05:42.keeping the same system may not be too much of a problem for Scottish
:05:42. > :05:50.opinion. It seems to cut across the rhetoric of those have been -- who
:05:50. > :05:53.have been campaigning on the yes side. Nevertheless, there is no
:05:53. > :05:57.doubt that welfare reform, shall show protection and an appeal to
:05:57. > :06:07.Scottish values will remain at the heart of the debate over Scotland's
:06:07. > :06:09.
:06:09. > :06:13.future. -- social protection. Just before we came on air, I spoke
:06:13. > :06:19.to Nicola Sturgeon. I asked her, apart from the bedroom tax, which
:06:19. > :06:22.Coalition reforms to welfare she objected to.
:06:22. > :06:27.There are a number of things. We don't agree with housing benefit
:06:27. > :06:30.being lumped into universal credit and paid directly to recipients. It
:06:30. > :06:33.wants to retain housing benefit separately so it can be paid to
:06:33. > :06:37.landlords and help secure the income stream of housing associations and
:06:38. > :06:41.councils, which is very important. We have made announcements very
:06:41. > :06:47.recently about changes we would make to universal credit to deal with the
:06:47. > :06:53.situation where second demos, which are principally women in the
:06:53. > :06:57.household, have massive disincentives to get into work. Over
:06:57. > :07:02.time, of course, we have the opportunity to design a welfare
:07:02. > :07:04.system that is truly fit for Scotland's purposes. On the
:07:04. > :07:11.big-ticket staff, according to this report produced by you today, the
:07:11. > :07:14.biggest saving from Iain Duncan Smith's welfare reforms is changing
:07:14. > :07:19.the way benefits are operated from the retail price index to the
:07:19. > :07:27.consumer price index. Would you like to give us a commitment to would
:07:27. > :07:31.reverse that west mac -- he would reverse that? The reports were # the
:07:31. > :07:35.report was looking at delivery options. I asked a very direct
:07:35. > :07:40.question. If you want a different welfare system, would you like to
:07:40. > :07:46.guarantee now that you would reverse the biggest saving in welfare
:07:46. > :07:51.spending, which is this change from RPI to CPI? There is a case to be
:07:51. > :07:58.made for that, because what you are seeing right now is money being
:07:58. > :08:04.taken from the pockets of people who are in work and ongoing comps. --
:08:04. > :08:09.and in one comes. We will look at the delivery options of the system.
:08:10. > :08:14.In the short game, we have asked them to do an additional piece of
:08:14. > :08:17.work which is looking at reform of the welfare system. There will be
:08:17. > :08:22.another set of proposals that may or may not include the kind of policy
:08:22. > :08:27.you have spoken about. You have made a great deal about seeing you want a
:08:27. > :08:32.welfare system that would make Scotland a more equal society.
:08:32. > :08:40.you tell me a single policy that would do that question mark -- that
:08:40. > :08:46.would do that? Getting rid of the Kent -- the bedroom tax. A system
:08:46. > :08:50.that would protect the vulnerable in incentivised work. I have given new
:08:50. > :08:59.examples of how the current system doesn't promote equality. So what
:09:00. > :09:06.would you do? We would have a system that... What would you do?We would
:09:06. > :09:12.get rid of the benefit tax, we would reform... You wouldn't do things
:09:12. > :09:15.that IDS wouldn't do? We would reform the universal credit system
:09:15. > :09:20.to make it more attractive for people to get into work. You have
:09:20. > :09:23.got to accept that we will inherit a system, and there is a necessity to
:09:24. > :09:27.look at specific changes to make to that system to deal with the worst
:09:27. > :09:32.impacts of it, to make it fairer, while you work in the longer term at
:09:32. > :09:37.how you date -- work with a welfare system that is integrated with the
:09:37. > :09:40.tax system. Something that is more integrated with preventative
:09:40. > :09:50.services and to stop people falling into poverty in the first place.
:09:50. > :09:56.
:09:56. > :10:01.key issue in the batter Independence, you need to come up
:10:01. > :10:07.with something else, you say you would not do what IDS will do and
:10:07. > :10:12.she would not have the bedroom that is? We have inherited a system that
:10:12. > :10:17.is wrong in many respects, so in the short-term, it is right for us to
:10:17. > :10:25.undo those rungs, to write those wrongs. We would look for a welfare
:10:25. > :10:30.system that is more integrated. Every politician says that.
:10:30. > :10:35.differences, we not have the ability to do this, I cannot speak for other
:10:35. > :10:39.politicians that have failed to do it. That is what Labour said they
:10:39. > :10:44.would do in the UK. With the greatest respect, they were in power
:10:44. > :10:48.for years in the UK and failed to do this. We need to be more
:10:48. > :10:53.preventative to stop people falling into poverty in the first place and
:10:53. > :10:58.to integrate welfare with the child poverty strategy. We cannot just see
:10:58. > :11:02.welfare and have the rhetoric around welfare that we see from the UK
:11:02. > :11:07.government about penalising and been punitive. This seems like a wish
:11:07. > :11:12.list, not real policy, you have not really thought this out, have you?
:11:12. > :11:17.We think about it step by step. This report today is the first step is
:11:17. > :11:20.looking at the cost of the system we will inherit which is an important
:11:20. > :11:25.foundation to build on, looking at how we were physically process and
:11:25. > :11:30.administer the system in the early days of independence. And we have
:11:30. > :11:33.constructed a certain second programme up today that will look at
:11:33. > :11:37.the long-term programme for change, but I have given you a clear
:11:37. > :11:41.indication of the kind of direction we would want to see that going to.
:11:41. > :11:45.You say you would like to be nicer, everyone should have more money,
:11:45. > :11:54.that is what you are saying? I have given you short-term specific
:11:54. > :11:58.examples. Just to quote a sentence from your own report, concern about
:11:58. > :12:01.income inequality and support for redistribution was showing as having
:12:01. > :12:06.fallen in both Scotland and England in the last decade and across a
:12:06. > :12:10.range of measures. We have a rhetoric around welfare across the
:12:10. > :12:13.UK led by the UK government that tries to mislead people into
:12:13. > :12:21.thinking all well first spend is on people that are scroungers and
:12:21. > :12:25.skivers. People are concerned about being duped, is that what you are
:12:26. > :12:32.saying? We spend on pensioners, families with children, people in
:12:32. > :12:36.low-paid jobs. There is very little evidence that these Scottish values
:12:36. > :12:41.you talk about actually exist? speak to people across the country
:12:41. > :12:46.and they want a welfare system that is fairer, protect the vulnerable
:12:46. > :12:53.and tells people into work. would like one that is unfair and
:12:53. > :12:57.stops people working? ! You think your report is just wrong when it
:12:57. > :13:03.says this? ! I am telling you what I hear when I speak to people, we need
:13:03. > :13:06.to do what we think is right, we need to support a growing economy in
:13:06. > :13:15.the welfare system. A lot of the well first spend is on people that
:13:15. > :13:22.are in jobs, working hard but on a low income. We need to support
:13:22. > :13:26.people into work and into work that pays them a good pay for a good day
:13:27. > :13:30.'s work. One criticism on the IDS welfare reforms is that they focus
:13:30. > :13:35.on people that are not elderly, whereas half of the welfare budget
:13:35. > :13:40.is taken up by benefits to the elderly, and that is unfair, it is
:13:40. > :13:44.only because elderly people tend to vote and you Duncan Smith hopes they
:13:45. > :13:51.vote Conservative. You have a chance to change that with the new vision,
:13:51. > :13:59.so would you change this benefit to finance an equal society? We should
:13:59. > :14:03.stop presenting the ageing population as a problem, it is good
:14:03. > :14:09.that people are living longer, the way that you finance them in the old
:14:09. > :14:13.age is that you have to finance people into decent paid jobs so we
:14:13. > :14:19.have the growing economy with more people contributing and can
:14:19. > :14:22.contribute to people in old age. you accelerated the age of
:14:22. > :14:29.eligibility for the state pension, you would save a knack salute
:14:29. > :14:34.fortune and you could use that money to claim on what you want to do. --
:14:34. > :14:38.save an absolute fortune. We need to make sure we have a faster economy
:14:38. > :14:46.with people working and contributing to this economy. Nicola Sturgeon,
:14:46. > :14:49.thank you. We are joined by Nicola McEwan, the
:14:49. > :14:56.director of public policy at the Academy of Government at Edinburgh
:14:56. > :15:01.University. Clearly, Nicola Sturgeon and her colleagues would like to see
:15:01. > :15:08.this as a crucial part of the debate on independence, a game change, do
:15:08. > :15:12.you think it could be, in your view? It is difficult. It is
:15:12. > :15:16.interesting the way the issue has become a key feature in the
:15:16. > :15:20.referendum campaign, this welfare issue, against the backdrop of
:15:20. > :15:24.welfare reforms in the UK government, it is more difficult to
:15:24. > :15:31.argue when the emphasis was about continuity today and continuity of
:15:31. > :15:37.shared service delivery. It is not unreasonable for the SNP to say we
:15:37. > :15:40.will do this for a few years, obviously, there has to be a
:15:40. > :15:46.transition period, but this is our vision and our vision is what ever.
:15:46. > :15:50.Indeed, we need to know what the vision is, because the emphasis has
:15:50. > :15:55.to be on the transitional period. The Deputy first Minister is right
:15:55. > :16:00.to say that the system would be inherited, we would not start with a
:16:00. > :16:06.blank sheet of paper, so there would be lots of continuity ins to the
:16:06. > :16:12.medium and long-term, but it is not clear what this distinctive welfare
:16:12. > :16:16.state would look like. You are right that a lot of the emphasis has been
:16:16. > :16:22.on preserving certain things that have existed until now. That is very
:16:22. > :16:26.similar to the rhetoric we heard in the home rule movement in the 1990s.
:16:27. > :16:32.I think there has been perhaps increasingly audible mutterings for
:16:32. > :16:37.some people on the yes campaign side of, come on, give us a bit of
:16:37. > :16:45.something radical, a bit of a vision, rather than be independent,
:16:45. > :16:49.you will hardly notice? ! Where they are coming from is that you want to
:16:49. > :16:53.minimise the sense of risk and some of the continuity can do this. There
:16:53. > :16:58.is a need to capture the imagination as well will stop I do not think
:16:58. > :17:03.that as the opinion polls suggest, there is nothing close to a majority
:17:03. > :17:07.of independence, there is a lot of uncertainty and some people
:17:07. > :17:11.undecided and on certain of the consequences. Without spelling out a
:17:11. > :17:16.clearer vision of what it might look like and how it might be better, it
:17:16. > :17:21.would be difficult to see that shifting. The other difficulty for
:17:21. > :17:24.the Scottish government, as John Curtis explained, there might be a
:17:24. > :17:28.slight difficult issue with attitudes towards welfare in
:17:28. > :17:33.Scotland, it is not a big difference, but the really striking
:17:33. > :17:38.thing, is that in previous recessions, people tend to become
:17:38. > :17:42.more sympathetic towards people on benefits and this time, the opposite
:17:42. > :17:46.is happening, and it is happening right across the UK. This is the
:17:46. > :17:50.finding of the social attitude surveys, but it would be
:17:50. > :17:55.exaggerating to assume that there are always big differences between
:17:55. > :17:58.Scottish and English attitude, even in the context of the Thatcher years
:17:58. > :18:03.with the social democratic nationalism of the home rule
:18:03. > :18:08.movement, there was some convergence across the UK. At what is different
:18:08. > :18:12.in Scotland is the political channels that express a social
:18:12. > :18:17.democratic view, by and large, so you do not have the kind of
:18:17. > :18:22.political elite as you have at the UK level that emphasises welfare in
:18:22. > :18:26.trenchant as an independent issue. You were saying a lot of Scottish
:18:26. > :18:31.people might agree with Iain Duncan Smith and the coalition government
:18:32. > :18:36.but have no way to express that in the context, well I suppose they
:18:36. > :18:43.can, with the Conservatives. Perhaps, but what I am trying to say
:18:43. > :18:46.is that it is a mistake to separate out public opinion and public values
:18:46. > :18:56.from the political expression of those values, and you need to look
:18:56. > :19:25.
:19:25. > :19:29.at them both in tandem. Thank you, protest in Istanbul on the front
:19:29. > :19:39.page of the Guardian. That is it from us, we're back to morrow night,
:19:39. > :19:47.
:19:47. > :19:52.compared to last night. It will be humoured on Wednesday, but a lot of
:19:52. > :20:00.cloud again. Some sunny spells and eastern Scotland. -- it will be
:20:00. > :20:05.humid on Wednesday. Sunny spells across Northern Ireland. A wet start
:20:05. > :20:11.for northern Scotland, but try by the afternoon. Sunny spells in the
:20:11. > :20:16.central belt, cloud returning in the evening. Mostly grey across the
:20:16. > :20:21.north-east of England. We could hit 20 degrees in some places with some
:20:21. > :20:26.sunshine. Most places, temperatures in the mid-teens and rain will
:20:26. > :20:30.return to southern areas during the day. Turning increasingly windy with
:20:30. > :20:35.the wind picking up across South Wales and south-west England,
:20:35. > :20:39.especially during Wednesday night and Thursday. Thursday will be
:20:39. > :20:47.blustery with some sunny spells will stop some showery rain across the
:20:47. > :20:53.northern half of the UK. Some more sunshine on Thursday. A fresher feel
:20:53. > :20:55.with temperatures being a bit down and not quite so humid. Strong winds