20/06/2013

:00:03. > :00:13.forget. But if they spend a moment taking pictures, what is it exactly

:00:13. > :00:17.

:00:17. > :00:23.that they will remember? Welcome to Newsnight Scotland for our

:00:23. > :00:29.by-election special. Voters in Aberdeen Donside have been to vote

:00:29. > :00:35.for the new MSP. The count is underway and we are only to bring

:00:35. > :00:42.you live coverage of the result it comes. This is the scene where the

:00:42. > :00:50.votes are stacking up. Here in Glasgow, we will have commentary

:00:50. > :00:59.from cross panel of politicians and from our resident experts, Brian

:00:59. > :01:03.Taylor. The SNP are defending a pretty big majority but when the

:01:04. > :01:08.Scottish Parliament was first established, this part of Aberdeen

:01:08. > :01:14.voted Labour. Tonight should be good. Next to you, politics

:01:14. > :01:20.Professor John Curtice. We should not assume it will be an easy night

:01:20. > :01:28.for the SNP. We should remember that governments usually do badly in

:01:28. > :01:32.by-elections in the crucial question is how badly they could suffer.

:01:32. > :01:38.by-election was called following the death of Brian Adam. They are hoping

:01:38. > :01:48.to hold the seat and labour is hoping to reduce if not overcome the

:01:48. > :01:52.

:01:53. > :01:57.SNP's majority. Reporting from the count, our political correspondent.

:01:57. > :02:02.It has been a long campaign and the boxes have started to arrive with

:02:02. > :02:11.the counting well underway. Everyone involved and this should know where

:02:11. > :02:20.they stand by 2am. That's the hours away! A lot of talking to do between

:02:20. > :02:26.now and then. More from Aberdeen soon but first of all, let me

:02:26. > :02:34.introduce our panel. They are the Conservative MP David McDowell, who

:02:34. > :02:43.is the party chairman in Scotland. The Scottish National party, Glasgow

:02:43. > :02:49.SNP. Scottish Labour's representative is a Lothians MSP and

:02:49. > :02:58.for the Scottish Liberal Democrats, Liam McArthur, who is the MSP for

:02:58. > :03:05.me. -- Orkney. Labour are the challengers here, what are you

:03:05. > :03:14.hearing? Nobody wants this, it is very sad indeed under the

:03:14. > :03:20.circumstances. 50% of the vote is the big figure I am looking for. You

:03:20. > :03:26.are not expecting to make enough progress to overtime revote? They

:03:26. > :03:31.have a majority of 7000 year, one of the biggest in the Scottish

:03:31. > :03:38.Parliament. It would be a huge effort to travel that over. How big

:03:38. > :03:46.Enoch do you think they will take? From the first opening remarks, it

:03:46. > :03:50.is a sad occasion and people will be thinking of Brian Adam at this

:03:50. > :03:56.election but it has a remarkable lack of ambition shown there. The

:03:56. > :04:02.fact the SNP is and with a shout of retaining its seat six years in to

:04:02. > :04:08.government, midterm on a second term shows how remarkable the team and

:04:08. > :04:13.the vision have been for Scotland. Actually, we have shown in the past

:04:13. > :04:20.that when it comes to by-elections against governing parties, we have

:04:20. > :04:28.achieved swings of 22% and over. A much more modest swing is required

:04:28. > :04:34.by Labour to take that seat. We will be looking to hold onto that. Should

:04:34. > :04:41.you not be able to beat the SNP six years then? This is the SNP's

:04:41. > :04:48.heartland with a 7000 majority which is huge. It would take a 16% swing

:04:48. > :04:54.to bring it back into labour's hands. He has put everything he

:04:54. > :05:01.possibly could and this. That is how important it is to the SNP. Let's

:05:01. > :05:11.bring in the Conservatives. Eat or the last time. What would you

:05:11. > :05:12.

:05:12. > :05:15.consider adding inevitable result? -- a poor third. We have fought a

:05:15. > :05:21.positive campaign with the young and positive candidates to put our

:05:21. > :05:28.message over. I am not anticipating a Conservative gain the same.

:05:28. > :05:33.Really! We got 4% of the vote on the council elections and do not even

:05:33. > :05:38.have a counsellor with the constituency. We just wanted to put

:05:38. > :05:44.out a positive message to show we are out and about and they think

:05:44. > :05:49.Ross Thomson did an excellent job on that. It is very sad, the loss of

:05:49. > :05:57.Brian Adam, and I knew him very well back in the Scottish Parliament in

:05:57. > :06:01.1989 and he is one of the people who shoot Scottish politics. The Liberal

:06:01. > :06:08.Democrats starting from fourth position. Facing a challenge from

:06:08. > :06:16.UKIP. They have set their sights on making some sort of breakthrough in

:06:16. > :06:20.Scottish politics. Any chance they could beat you to fourth place?

:06:20. > :06:26.Three hours away from the result, I am not privy to any advance

:06:26. > :06:34.knowledge of how it is likely to unfold, but I would like to add my

:06:34. > :06:39.voice to the comments from all the panellists about Brian Adam. The

:06:39. > :06:44.respect towards and was exemplified by the tributes paid to him and he

:06:44. > :06:54.was always a source of sound advice and good counsel. NK is of the

:06:54. > :06:56.

:06:56. > :07:01.campaign, and very energetic campaign has been fought. I am not

:07:01. > :07:08.expecting any great surprises but the campaign has been good in terms

:07:08. > :07:13.of energising our supporter base. We will see what happens but I think

:07:13. > :07:16.she has to be commended on fighting an excellent campaign. We will let

:07:16. > :07:25.you rest your voices for rabbits because you may have a lot of

:07:25. > :07:32.talking to do and we can go live to Aberdeen. We can talk to him now.

:07:32. > :07:38.What is the latest, Stephen? A lot of poker faces on show at the

:07:38. > :07:43.moment. They have been counting the votes for an hour or so. The

:07:43. > :07:50.election agents are aware and we are trying to get a sense of what is

:07:50. > :07:56.going on. I mention that already the rumours are starting to fly. The

:07:56. > :08:00.first remark is of a low turnout so people are talking of our turnout

:08:00. > :08:05.below 40%. It could be some time before we get any confirmation but

:08:05. > :08:11.as we said, nobody giving much away so far and we are expecting that the

:08:11. > :08:17.declaration could go between one a.m. And 2am, at the latest.

:08:18. > :08:21.Everyone then here's hoping it comes earlier than that but the

:08:21. > :08:28.confirmation will come and we should get a sense over the next hour of

:08:28. > :08:33.how things are starting to unfold. Perhaps you can concern to us when

:08:33. > :08:40.it comes in the turnout. What are you hearing from the different

:08:41. > :08:48.camps? Labour are expecting to make some progress but not to win the

:08:48. > :08:57.seat. The SNP are confident, as that's reflected in the code itself?

:08:57. > :09:04.-- code. What has been said so far is that the theme is local issues,

:09:04. > :09:07.not national issues. People are looking at this interested in how

:09:07. > :09:12.the referendum will factor alone, but it seems very much this has been

:09:12. > :09:19.a campaign fought on local issues. We have heard all week particularly

:09:19. > :09:24.about the transport issue and it has been characterised as a by-election

:09:24. > :09:27.about a roundabout. Some say that is unfair but certainly the transport

:09:28. > :09:33.issues are of huge concern here. They have other concerns which

:09:33. > :09:37.school closures and of course the level of funding that Aberdeen is

:09:37. > :09:43.receiving. They are concerned with those sorts of things and the

:09:43. > :09:49.feeling seems to be, that the SNP will hold onto the seat but what

:09:49. > :09:59.will be interesting is to see the numbers and to see whether the 7000

:09:59. > :10:02.

:10:02. > :10:10.majority last time, whether or not the numbers change quickly. We will

:10:10. > :10:15.be back at the count later. We will also hear from Brian and John. There

:10:15. > :10:22.is plenty of time to talk about the haudagain roundabout, it has been

:10:22. > :10:25.more about the roundabout than the ends and outs of the Independence

:10:25. > :10:33.debate but today William Hague came to Edinburgh and warned of the very

:10:33. > :10:42.serious problems he thinks an independent Scotland would face in

:10:42. > :10:46.joining the EU and NATO. We will discuss that in a moment.

:10:46. > :10:52.Identity is at the centre of the Independence debate. It will be a

:10:52. > :10:58.vote on how Scotland sees its place in the world. Will that be a small

:10:58. > :11:03.but confident country making decisions in its own interest or

:11:03. > :11:13.part of the United Kingdom sharing in the risks and rewards of being in

:11:13. > :11:13.

:11:13. > :11:16.one of the world's most successful economies. As problems in Syria

:11:16. > :11:25.reached on William Hague was in Edinburgh to speak about the latter

:11:25. > :11:30.of the two arguments. We also had to think about how we appear to others.

:11:30. > :11:36.Travelling from Afghanistan to Brazil, Canada to Australia, I am

:11:36. > :11:39.baffled that anyone would try to break up a union that has been so

:11:39. > :11:47.resilient, so successful and so admired in the world as I will -- as

:11:47. > :11:51.ours. When outsiders look at the United Kingdom they see one of the

:11:51. > :11:56.world's most successful examples of economic develop and, diplomatic

:11:56. > :12:04.influence, and democracy. They speak about our institutions, our legal

:12:04. > :12:08.systems and ourselves will service -- and our civil service. They look

:12:08. > :12:13.at our language, sport and tradition... And William Hague said

:12:13. > :12:18.there was another important reason to keep the union. Our world is

:12:18. > :12:22.becoming more dangerous, our continued security depends on

:12:22. > :12:30.defending our security ourselves, that includes our nuclear dependent

:12:30. > :12:34.-- our nuclear deterrent. An independent Scotland would not be

:12:34. > :12:41.able to replicate our abilities. The cost of creating new capabilities

:12:41. > :12:51.would create an enormous burden on the Scottish taxpayer, it would take

:12:51. > :12:53.

:12:53. > :12:59.years to build up the qualified personnel needed and Scotland would

:12:59. > :13:05.lose the benefit of having some of the most impressive services in the

:13:05. > :13:12.world. But some are not convinced it will get through to the everyday

:13:12. > :13:17.person on the street. If you are a politician, you will not be at the

:13:17. > :13:22.UN Security Council if you represent a independent Scotland or at the G8

:13:22. > :13:29.and set with world leaders. But well that Marilyn -- will that matter to

:13:29. > :13:35.the average voters? Does it really matter to the average Scottish

:13:35. > :13:40.person on the street whether we have a G8 member or someone on the UN

:13:40. > :13:47.Security Council. People are more sick cure -- people are more

:13:47. > :13:55.concerned about their jobs. When it comes to winning the argument on

:13:55. > :14:02.foreign affairs the SNP is wanting to play on the controversial

:14:02. > :14:07.decisions made by the Westminster Government in Scotland's name. There

:14:07. > :14:14.was a call for the impeachment of Tony Blair on war crimes recently.

:14:14. > :14:20.And years of protest at Faslane, they say, shows that Scotland needs

:14:20. > :14:25.the power to remove it from the Clyde. But when getting the argument

:14:25. > :14:32.across to the SNP encounter the same problems as their opponents? Some

:14:32. > :14:36.are already mobilised to vote yes, the difficult problem for the yes

:14:36. > :14:43.campaign is looking at those in the middle who do not really mind about

:14:43. > :14:47.foreign policy. Most people tend to be in the middle. The yes campaign

:14:47. > :14:52.already has a lot of people who were angry about the Iraq war and about

:14:52. > :14:58.nuclear weapons, they have to broaden the base, they have to get

:14:58. > :15:06.above the one third that seems to be backing them. Get the men who are on

:15:06. > :15:11.the street who may not have views on foreign policy but is not very

:15:11. > :15:19.ideological lead driven, in that sense, it is a very difficult road

:15:19. > :15:23.to run, they have two look at both sides. And the SNP has had its own

:15:23. > :15:30.difficulties in foreign policy, they have been accused of making

:15:30. > :15:40.assertions over automatic EU membership in independence. 75% of

:15:40. > :15:41.

:15:41. > :15:45.respondents said they would wish an independent Scotland to remain...

:15:45. > :15:51.And ending opposition to NATO membership in the SNP left deep

:15:51. > :15:57.divisions. Angus Robertson says that the SNP is making sensible decisions

:15:57. > :16:00.on foreign policy well the Government is scaremongering.

:16:00. > :16:07.countries make decisions on their own behalf and represent themselves

:16:07. > :16:10.internationally, that is one of the great pools of Scottish

:16:10. > :16:16.independence, that we can speak with our own voice and not be represented

:16:16. > :16:21.by parties that we did not even elect in Government. I would rather

:16:21. > :16:30.we work directly represented in the EU and spoke up for the things that

:16:30. > :16:34.mattered. Not have ourselves committed to illegal wars. The

:16:34. > :16:36.advantage of Independence is that we are directly represented in the

:16:36. > :16:43.world rather than being misrepresented by a Government we

:16:43. > :16:47.did not elect. Foreign policy arguments advanced by both sides

:16:48. > :16:52.today we have heard before and will hear again. But did the voters take

:16:52. > :16:57.notice? We will pick this up with our

:16:57. > :17:03.politicians in a moment. Both Brian and John were at the speech in

:17:03. > :17:08.Edinburgh today. What did you think? I thought he was rehearsing

:17:08. > :17:12.or rehashing, or setting out perhaps, the arguments on the

:17:13. > :17:17.foreign affairs issue, stressing in his view that it would be difficult

:17:17. > :17:26.for Scotland to gain membership of the European Union, making the same

:17:26. > :17:29.point in a media briefing in regards to Natal later. At that media

:17:29. > :17:37.briefing we were inclined to press about the UK Government perspective.

:17:37. > :17:42.-- NATO. We asked if he meant that there would be a threat to our

:17:42. > :17:47.membership of the UN Security Council. He said absolutely not. He

:17:47. > :17:54.said it would be a continuing UK continuing to inherit is that the UK

:17:54. > :18:01.has the world. The select committee has warned... That is certainly

:18:01. > :18:07.contentious issue. William Hague was of the view that the rest of the UK

:18:07. > :18:16.would be the continuing state and inherit the status that the rest of

:18:16. > :18:25.the UK has ended -- has in the European Union. He did not look at

:18:25. > :18:30.what Scotland could gain from the membership. He said that Scotland

:18:30. > :18:35.game from being part of the cloud that the UK delivers. It is back to

:18:35. > :18:40.an argument that is familiar from the time that we discussed the big

:18:40. > :18:44.stick, the UK has a big stick that is always wielded in the interest of

:18:45. > :18:49.the whole of the UK, and that is the interests of Scotland, by the always

:18:49. > :18:58.coterminous? Are they always benefiting from the use of the stick

:18:58. > :19:04.or is the big stick back home in a covered? -- in a covered? You were

:19:04. > :19:09.also there. I wonder if you can tackle a question that the historian

:19:09. > :19:14.in the film posed. Does this matter to the Auden -- to the ordinary

:19:14. > :19:20.Scottish voter? It matters somewhat but not with the debt of the

:19:20. > :19:25.argument that the Foreign Secretary gave. Not many people will follow

:19:25. > :19:28.that. It certainly judges by the criteria of whether people think

:19:28. > :19:36.that Scotland would have a stronger or weaker boys in the world than it

:19:36. > :19:46.does now. It clearly isn't as important an issue for voters as the

:19:46. > :19:48.

:19:48. > :19:55.economy is. It is more clearly related to whether we will be more

:19:55. > :20:01.at or less of an equal society. The argument is that Scotland will have

:20:01. > :20:07.a stronger voice, is it an argument that the yes wide -- the yes side

:20:07. > :20:11.are winning? They say that they think that Scotland would have a

:20:11. > :20:18.stronger voice in the world, far fewer think that it would have a

:20:18. > :20:22.weaker voice. It is one of the stronger parts of the yes side. It

:20:22. > :20:26.is a stronger hard for them than the issue of the economy. But at the end

:20:26. > :20:36.of the day, the economy is still more of an important issue for

:20:36. > :20:36.

:20:36. > :20:43.voters. June it was intriguing also that the Foreign Secretary was

:20:43. > :20:48.reluctant to flesh at that point, the diminished status of the rest of

:20:48. > :20:51.the UK, because he is then seeing that one of the things worries us is

:20:51. > :20:58.a challenge from the Russians or some other nation that has always

:20:58. > :21:03.been jealous of Britain's permanent membership... He was reluctant to go

:21:03. > :21:11.down that route because either he thinks that the case or he could

:21:11. > :21:17.then be seen as pursuing a selfish agenda. It is worth saying that

:21:17. > :21:23.William Hague's speech exemplified one of the potential problems

:21:23. > :21:27.because as soon as you start talking about how wonderful Britain is, you

:21:27. > :21:31.may or may not think that is through but you have to be denying that the

:21:31. > :21:36.people of Scotland are very narrowly thinking about what is and their own

:21:36. > :21:41.interests. The Hundred years of British history may not be as

:21:41. > :21:51.crucial as the perspective of what the union could deliver for Britain

:21:51. > :21:55.

:21:55. > :22:00.in future. Did you watch this speech? Did you go along? I spent my

:22:00. > :22:06.day in useful activity in Aberdeen. When it comes to William Hague, I

:22:06. > :22:12.have seen his predictions before, in the days before devolution, when he

:22:12. > :22:18.said we would be weaker as a country under devolution. Over time, he has

:22:18. > :22:24.been shown to be lacking. He showed the bold as brass neck I have seen

:22:24. > :22:31.for quite a while in regards to the EU. The senior members of the

:22:31. > :22:35.Conservative Government are completely spot on the issue.

:22:35. > :22:41.they not promising after the next general election to hold a

:22:41. > :22:46.referendum having been negotiated the terms of membership? That's as

:22:46. > :22:54.many somersaults as I have seen in question. Philip Hammond and Michael

:22:54. > :23:00.Gove are all over the place when it comes to the issue. Scotland at the

:23:00. > :23:04.moment does not contribute in terms of the voice of the UK. We are not

:23:04. > :23:10.asked or consulted when it comes to decisions that are made in the UN

:23:10. > :23:14.security council. I have been new Minister for external affairs for

:23:14. > :23:19.nine months and William Hague has not spoken to me to ask what the

:23:19. > :23:29.Scottish government thinks on these issues. When we do have differences

:23:29. > :23:29.

:23:29. > :23:33.of opinion, such as that the UN vote on Palestine. The UK decided to

:23:33. > :23:41.abstain in Scotland said we would vote for that in line with the

:23:41. > :23:51.majority of international opinion. That is well out with your remix.

:23:51. > :23:59.Scotland has a voice. We very legitimately have a voice. The UK

:23:59. > :24:03.government should absolutely take note of that and they do not.

:24:03. > :24:11.with those complaints first of all then back to some of the substance

:24:11. > :24:16.of William Hague's speech. I think they are complete nonsense. I do

:24:16. > :24:21.except what he does not except which is that foreign affairs as a

:24:21. > :24:26.reserved matters all that is the responsibility of Westminster. We

:24:26. > :24:33.have Scottish MPs at Westminster who make their voices known on this.

:24:33. > :24:40.Many have prominent roles such as Malcolm Bruce. Scotland's voice is

:24:40. > :24:43.heard on these issues and the Scottish Parliament has a dream. I

:24:43. > :24:50.was at a meeting earlier this week with Fiona Hyslop about the issues

:24:50. > :24:56.in relation to Europe, and the forthcoming European Council. It is

:24:56. > :25:00.not the case at all that the UK government does not listen to the

:25:00. > :25:04.default administrations. We are working closely with them. His

:25:04. > :25:09.problem is that when he does not agree with our decision, he cannot

:25:09. > :25:15.accept that. That is the basis of the discussions. We are listening

:25:15. > :25:21.and trying to work on the basis of the devolved settlements and I think

:25:21. > :25:29.it is working pretty well. When you take the noise of independence out

:25:29. > :25:32.of the picture, they are never good day to day working relationship.

:25:32. > :25:41.does not work well because it is not about my voice but about the

:25:41. > :25:48.Scottish voice, and the arrack war was a good example. We had a voice

:25:48. > :25:53.that was very different in terms of the UK government. Scottish sons and

:25:53. > :25:57.daughters were sent out and killed. We then found out that was based on

:25:57. > :26:03.a lie. We are the voice differentiates we should absolutely

:26:03. > :26:13.have a voice. The fact that one MP cheer of the select committee is not

:26:13. > :26:13.

:26:13. > :26:18.Scotland's voice! Let me make this final point. William Hague, I was

:26:18. > :26:27.not surprised he did not touch on the point that the vast majority of

:26:27. > :26:31.Scots do not want nuclear weapons on the soil. These are important issues

:26:31. > :26:37.in the final point that John Curtis made was that when it comes to

:26:37. > :26:43.international affairs and defence, time and again the majority of Scots

:26:43. > :26:48.want the Scottish Parliament to have a voice on that issue. I certainly

:26:48. > :26:55.do not accept that polls indicate Scots want the Scottish government

:26:55. > :26:58.running the defence of Scotland. All the polling is quite clear that

:26:58. > :27:08.people understand the benefits of the United Kingdom from that point

:27:08. > :27:11.

:27:11. > :27:16.of view. We actually don't have a vote in the Scottish Parliament on

:27:16. > :27:22.the Iraq war and the Scottish government expressed its view but

:27:22. > :27:27.they are not responsible for these matters. The referendum will mean

:27:27. > :27:32.the Scottish people can determine this. My view there is very much to

:27:32. > :27:39.that of William Hague's. Scotland stands taller than FoxPro that is

:27:39. > :27:46.part of the United Kingdom. Is this really about what is best for

:27:46. > :27:56.Scotland or is William Hague arguing what is best for the UK? Is usually

:27:56. > :27:59.worried about the UK and using its status and influence? What he is

:27:59. > :28:03.arguing is that what is best for Scotland and for Britain is the

:28:03. > :28:09.same. We want to stay united and part of the United Kingdom because

:28:09. > :28:13.we have a strong voice... Do you agree with the foreign affairs

:28:13. > :28:21.committee that said in the event of independence, the UN security

:28:21. > :28:27.council rule may be called into question? I will put it in context.

:28:27. > :28:30.Nothing will be the same after a yes vote in the referendum. We have seen

:28:30. > :28:37.over the course of the past few months and attempt to characterise

:28:37. > :28:42.the vote as only the things you do not click will change, but there

:28:42. > :28:48.will be significant change. It will not be possible to predict what will

:28:48. > :28:51.happen on a whole number of things. Is that not a difficulty for you

:28:51. > :28:57.because William Hague argues you have had difficulty securing

:28:57. > :29:07.independent membership of the EU and NATO. You cannot prove that is not

:29:07. > :29:14.the case. If you look at the alone report, the EU transition, it was

:29:14. > :29:21.the alone independent adviser, the UK Government's, who said the

:29:21. > :29:26.timetable put for what... That is about the nature of the deal you

:29:26. > :29:31.would get and does not discount the possibility you would have a wrangle

:29:31. > :29:39.on your hands in order to sort out the terms of Scottish membership.

:29:39. > :29:44.Having set a timetable, you do not have much room for manoeuvre.

:29:44. > :29:48.quite an incredible argument that an oil-rich, sufficiently rich Scotland

:29:48. > :29:57.that has been part of the EU for 40 years could not continue its

:29:57. > :30:05.membership. When it comes to William Hague, is he arguing for the benefit

:30:05. > :30:10.of Scotland are for the UK's position? It is for the UK and not

:30:10. > :30:18.just for the security council but over how many MEPs the UK will have

:30:18. > :30:22.and its influence and Clwyd in the European Union. That is the

:30:22. > :30:31.contradiction at the heart of the no campaign that Scotland will be to

:30:31. > :30:34.Luanda week, but actually we are desperate to hold on to you. That is

:30:34. > :30:43.the ridiculous argument that only those voting in the yes campaign

:30:43. > :30:47.ever bring up. William Hague made very clear Scotland could be

:30:47. > :30:55.independent and I make it clear they could be, but I question whether it

:30:55. > :30:59.would be better. I do not think that case has been made. I am sure during

:30:59. > :31:04.the course of the programme we will return to their sand and even expand

:31:04. > :31:14.on the discussion. We will leave it there for the moment, let's get some

:31:14. > :31:21.

:31:21. > :31:25.more from Stephen Gordon. Is there an update? It is a slow process and

:31:25. > :31:31.moving slowly but all 52 of the boxers have now arrived from all

:31:31. > :31:35.over the constituency in the counting is well underway. Still too

:31:35. > :31:41.early to make any predictions but certainly people are taking plenty

:31:41. > :31:45.of interest on all sides of the whole. I would say, there are lot of

:31:45. > :31:52.poker faces with nobody giving too much away about how things appears

:31:52. > :31:59.to be up. Plenty of interest at this stage in the timeout. They were a

:31:59. > :32:05.lot of rumours flying about with some Google putting it in the 30%

:32:05. > :32:08.region but others at about 50%. What I can say is that was a decent day

:32:08. > :32:15.in Aberdeen with a lovely evening so plenty of chances for people to go

:32:15. > :32:20.out. The perfect opportunity but we will have to see how that works and

:32:20. > :32:28.indeed whose favourite will turn out to be ended.

:32:28. > :32:33.Let's take a quick look at the front pages of tomorrow. The Scotsman has

:32:33. > :32:42.a picture of the Queen looking delighted having one, not

:32:42. > :32:45.personally, but her horse winning the Gold cup at Royal Ascot. The

:32:45. > :32:55.headline there is about Kenny McAskill angling judges in a Scots

:32:55. > :32:59.

:32:59. > :33:04.law shake-up. They are planning to abolish corroboration. -- angering.

:33:04. > :33:07.Those plans will be formally laid before Parliament tomorrow. The

:33:07. > :33:17.front page of the Daily Mail features the Queen and the Gold cup

:33:17. > :33:21.

:33:21. > :33:29.again. The main story is on the main story is only kidnapped teacher, the

:33:29. > :33:37.teacher convicted of kidnapping a 15-year-old pupil and you'll bring

:33:37. > :33:47.-- eloping to France together. They are still a couple according to this

:33:47. > :33:53.

:33:53. > :34:01.story. The Independent, I will, round, dark continent. Full stop

:34:01. > :34:04.this is the story about the Care Quality Commission in England which

:34:04. > :34:11.has under very controversial circumstances said that former

:34:11. > :34:17.bosses at the commission sought to suppress a report criticising the

:34:17. > :34:22.way in which the commission itself had handled the controversy over

:34:22. > :34:32.hospital care in Cumbria. We also have the daily Telegraph wheel again

:34:32. > :34:33.

:34:33. > :34:38.the Queen is smiling at Ascot. The main headline is about the NHS and

:34:38. > :34:44.the price racket, a Telegraph investigation. They have the William

:34:44. > :34:53.Hague speech in the bottom left-hand corner. And according to the

:34:53. > :34:58.Telegraph, two day is the happiest day of the year. After a bitterly

:34:58. > :35:01.cold Spring and months of economic gloom, it appears Britain is finally

:35:01. > :35:06.feeling some optimism when approaching holidays in the hope

:35:06. > :35:16.that Andy Murray will when Wimbledon, meaning today is the

:35:16. > :35:17.

:35:17. > :35:27.happiest day of the year. Wee will find a happy hour panellists are

:35:27. > :35:28.

:35:28. > :35:31.after midnight. -- we will find out how happy.

:35:31. > :35:34.Of course the by-election was called following the death of the previous

:35:34. > :35:37.MSP, Brian Adam, following his battle with cancer. He had held the

:35:38. > :35:40.seat for the Scottish National Party since 2003 when it was known as

:35:40. > :35:43.Aberdeen North. The by-election is being contested by nine candidates.

:35:43. > :35:46.And as Steven Duff reports, despite the fact that this is an election

:35:46. > :35:56.for the Scottish Parliament, it has been a campaign dominated very much

:35:56. > :36:01.

:36:01. > :36:07.by local and not national issues. Brian Adam being elected for the

:36:07. > :36:15.first time as an MSP in 2003, he was popular in his constituency and in

:36:15. > :36:25.Holyrood, his death was mourned by politicians of all parties, it was a

:36:25. > :36:30.

:36:30. > :36:39.by-election that nobody wanted. The housing estates of lobar -- of

:36:39. > :36:49.Labour strongholds, at one time. am proud to be the first Nationalist

:36:49. > :36:59.MSP for Aberdeen. Many believed that his personal popularity here was key

:36:59. > :37:01.

:37:01. > :37:11.in turning voters to the SNP. SNP candidate Mark McDonald resigned his

:37:11. > :37:16.list seat at the Scottish Parliament to stand in the by-election. He has

:37:16. > :37:21.faced claims from opponents that Aberdonians feel underfunded and

:37:21. > :37:25.neglected from the Scottish Government. If you look at the

:37:25. > :37:30.dental School and the new health constituent -- at the new health

:37:30. > :37:35.centres within the constituency, and the new schools, then the word --

:37:35. > :37:42.then the work at the haudagain roundabout, there is money which we

:37:42. > :37:51.think is benefiting the constituency from the Scottish Government.

:37:51. > :37:57.Aberdeen is getting a good deal from the Scottish Government. In 2011

:37:57. > :38:02.Labour finished 7000 votes behind Brian Adam. Willie Young is the

:38:02. > :38:09.finance convener of the council, he has had a rough ride during the

:38:09. > :38:14.campaign. First for questioning the wisdom of the freeze on council tax

:38:14. > :38:19.and the pressure on the Imrie school closures in the constituency.

:38:19. > :38:28.your arm waving your SNP badge so I think you might be voting for them.

:38:28. > :38:31.Yes. We have not had enough money from central Government, we have

:38:31. > :38:37.been short changed, that is what has been happening. He promised that

:38:38. > :38:45.there would be lower that the -- that we would not fall below, we are

:38:45. > :38:51.short. On top of that, Aberdeen is the launch -- is the only local

:38:51. > :38:55.authority that gives more money to Edinburgh than it gets back.

:38:55. > :39:05.many reports of people talking about independence or next year's

:39:05. > :39:10.referendum on the doorstep, but they have been talking about this... The

:39:10. > :39:17.haddock and roundabout -- the haudagain roundabout at the heart of

:39:17. > :39:22.the constituency. Every politician has promised to do something about

:39:22. > :39:27.it for a very long time, the SNP says it well but not until the

:39:27. > :39:36.Aberdeen bypass is built on that could be at Slate -- as late as

:39:36. > :39:41.2018. We are a world energy help and the oil capital of Europe, we do

:39:41. > :39:47.look at infrastructure and see the big concerns, we want to invest, and

:39:47. > :39:57.the structure is not fit for purpose, we are getting things done,

:39:57. > :39:57.

:39:57. > :40:03.but we need to see commitment. Obviously we are not like the other

:40:03. > :40:10.big parties, they see road-building is the effective solution to

:40:10. > :40:18.congestion, we want to concentrate on public transport. The Liberal

:40:18. > :40:21.Democrats once did well in the Donside suburbs but last year's

:40:21. > :40:28.elections they were reduced to romp of councillors after sharing the

:40:28. > :40:32.city council for more than a decade. Everyone has a record to defend, the

:40:32. > :40:37.Labour Party on the council here, the SNP at the Scottish Government,

:40:37. > :40:44.we have a record to defend at the Westminster Parliament, but through

:40:44. > :40:48.all of that we have delivered here for more than 30 years, we have run

:40:48. > :40:55.the council, we have delivered schools. We will stand up for the

:40:55. > :41:01.people of Aberdeen. For other candidates gently placed their hats

:41:02. > :41:06.into the campaign, UKIP among them, Nigel Farage had an unusually

:41:06. > :41:12.laid-back visit to Scotland to support his candidate. The SNP has

:41:12. > :41:19.been hot with the bookies since the start, it might disappoint some

:41:19. > :41:28.politicos when it doesn't show clues before the big around -- before the

:41:28. > :41:38.big referendum. Let us now go to Steven Godden in

:41:38. > :41:41.

:41:41. > :41:51.Aberdeen. I am joined by two local MSP 's. --

:41:51. > :41:52.

:41:52. > :41:56.MSPs. Either any indications of how this might turn out? It has been a

:41:56. > :42:03.hard-fought and marvellous campaign. Early indications are quite positive

:42:03. > :42:11.but we will wait and see. Anything less than a convincing victory would

:42:11. > :42:16.be a disappointment for you. Absolutely not. Brian Adam had 457

:42:16. > :42:24.when he first won the seat, anything above that would be good for our

:42:24. > :42:29.candidate to build from. But we expected to be better than that.

:42:29. > :42:34.have had a positive campaign. We have faced some negative campaigning

:42:34. > :42:39.from the SNP which we were quite taken aback by, especially the

:42:39. > :42:47.personal attacks. But we come with a strong and positive message for

:42:47. > :42:53.Aberdeen. We are making a case for a change. The other interesting

:42:53. > :42:57.respect has been seeing just how the SNP have avoided mentioning the

:42:57. > :43:07.dreaded word of independence throughout the campaign. It is not a

:43:07. > :43:16.surprise that Mark McDonald has conceded to the referendum. It gives

:43:16. > :43:26.us a good indication. I think it will be closer this time. Can he

:43:26. > :43:31.

:43:31. > :43:41.win? Yes, he can. Support has grown. We take a tremendous and in our vote

:43:41. > :43:44.

:43:45. > :43:54.hopefully. -- increase. We will find out in an hour or two. Is this a

:43:55. > :43:55.

:43:55. > :43:59.sheet -- is this a seat that you should win? It is an ambition. We

:43:59. > :44:08.want to bring an end to this SNP Government, they have wasted their

:44:08. > :44:14.years. Many voters tell us that even those who voted SNP before do not

:44:14. > :44:24.want to break up written and do not want a nationalist estate. -- to

:44:24. > :44:31.

:44:31. > :44:35.break up Britain. Why do not talking about independence? SNP canvassers

:44:35. > :44:40.have asked the question about independence. We ask it every time

:44:40. > :44:46.we are on our doorstep, that is absolutely not true. We have asked

:44:46. > :44:49.voters what they think, well there are people who are undecided we have

:44:49. > :44:54.had positive feedback from voters of various parties wanting

:44:54. > :45:00.independence. Others are in leading convinced but are open to being

:45:00. > :45:05.convinced. This is an election to replace my colleague Brian Adam, in

:45:05. > :45:13.the mid-term, as has been said, Labour should be looking for a

:45:13. > :45:20.victory, that is if they are going for a comeback, we do not link that

:45:20. > :45:27.that is going to happen. We think we will win and win comfortably.

:45:27. > :45:33.you not talking about it because people are uncomfortable with that?

:45:33. > :45:40.We are talking about independence, that is what I'm saying. We hear

:45:40. > :45:44.that it has been fought on local issues, why is that? Local issues

:45:44. > :45:50.matter to the people of Donside. They are matters for the local

:45:50. > :45:57.council and for a Scottish parliament. Local issues have been

:45:57. > :46:02.brought to the fore, of course. is where you give it away, you have

:46:02. > :46:09.talked about what local issues instead of talking about what the

:46:09. > :46:15.Scottish parliament should be doing. I have looked through the literature

:46:15. > :46:22.and I cannot find one piece of reference to independence in any of

:46:22. > :46:28.the leaflets. It is not an election about independence, it is an

:46:28. > :46:37.election to replace Brian Adam. We will get a chance to look at that

:46:37. > :46:44.vote in 2014. How can an MSP from the SNP stands here and say it is

:46:44. > :46:46.not about independence? You cannot have it both ways, you cannot say we

:46:46. > :46:52.talk about independence all the time and then that we don't see enough

:46:52. > :46:58.about it. You talk about us talking about it all the time and not

:46:58. > :47:06.focusing on anything else, you cannot have it both ways! But you

:47:06. > :47:11.did not mention it once! We do not vote -- we do not focus on it all

:47:11. > :47:19.the time. Their programme is dominated by the referendum but when

:47:19. > :47:22.it comes to this... Do not contradict yourself. They know as

:47:22. > :47:31.well as we do that most voters do not want to break up the United

:47:31. > :47:36.Kingdom. Think you need to wait till September 2014 to talk about that.

:47:36. > :47:41.We are talking about the by-election. This is a campaign

:47:41. > :47:47.about the issues that affect the people of Donside. We will see

:47:47. > :47:54.whether opinion has shifted in Donside. I think we will see a shift

:47:54. > :48:01.away from the SNP, I would be surprised indeed if parties standing

:48:01. > :48:05.from an -- for independence achieved any great majority. Speaking to

:48:05. > :48:09.people, what I have heard over and over again, is that these are issues

:48:09. > :48:14.that have been here four years, transport concerns have been present

:48:14. > :48:18.for a long time. People say that there has been a lot of talk and no

:48:18. > :48:26.action. For both of you, what difference for your candidate make?

:48:26. > :48:31.The haudagain roundabout. The legal challenge has been dealt with. We

:48:31. > :48:37.are moving ahead and we have seen demolition of buildings along the

:48:37. > :48:46.route, work is in process. We have said that the haudagain will be

:48:46. > :48:53.dealt with. We cannot do both things because they would be chaos around

:48:53. > :49:02.the haudagain. The key local issue has been the haudagain, the SNP will

:49:02. > :49:12.not touch it for the next few years. We want to drive the haudagain

:49:12. > :49:14.

:49:14. > :49:17.project. Experts say that... What about the rest, they're expendable?

:49:17. > :49:23.We're looking at agreements between the council the Government about

:49:23. > :49:32.minor disruption during construction. That would be an

:49:32. > :49:37.improvement them waiting five or six years. It would be a distraction. We

:49:37. > :49:41.are only going to build the houses and how long would that take?

:49:41. > :49:44.want a Labour MSP to make the case in the Scottish Parliament for the

:49:44. > :49:48.Scottish Government to come forward, not only to put the money

:49:48. > :49:53.in the investment in improving the haudagain but also to invest in that

:49:53. > :50:03.housing to allow people to be rehoused. And the plans haven't come

:50:03. > :50:06.

:50:06. > :50:14.forward from the council. It is a shocking record. With the Liberal

:50:14. > :50:20.Democrats and Labour administration it didn't. If they were serious,

:50:20. > :50:23.they would not just bring it forward but find a way to ensure that the

:50:23. > :50:28.tennants are rehoused into high quality property. They choose to

:50:28. > :50:34.with hold that. Just as they choose not to even begin work on the

:50:34. > :50:40.haudagain until 2018. That is a scandal and a disgrace. Many voters

:50:40. > :50:45.told us how angry that they were, that the Government said that would

:50:45. > :50:49.do it but not until 2018. On the issue of schools, you are

:50:49. > :50:54.looking to merge schools, close schools. You have made this

:50:54. > :50:59.difficult? There are consultations for two school mergers. Both in

:50:59. > :51:05.Donside. The SNP candidates were complaining about this, they closed

:51:05. > :51:11.four schools. We built ten schools in the whole of Aberdeen. He didn't

:51:11. > :51:18.replace many schools. All of the four school schools which Mark

:51:18. > :51:24.McDonald closed were not replaced. But pupils were put into new

:51:24. > :51:27.schools. We have looked at new schools with a view to educational

:51:27. > :51:32.benefits for the children. Without it, the children will not go forward

:51:32. > :51:37.it is in contrast to the way that Mark McDonald took an axe to good

:51:37. > :51:42.schools, even new schools, just to save money because of the financial

:51:42. > :51:48.crisis. Ten schools were built between #20

:51:48. > :51:56.2007 and 2011 under the SNP administration and a Scottish SNP

:51:56. > :52:01.Government. So, Lewis, nothing was built in yours. On housing, the SNP

:52:01. > :52:10.is on target with its housing policy. The schools built in

:52:10. > :52:17.Aberdeen were from money granted by a Labour/liberal government in

:52:17. > :52:22.2003/2004. It was before the 2007 election.

:52:22. > :52:27.Those models were no in -- not in place.

:52:27. > :52:31.We are about to get an update. There is lots of passion here. It has been

:52:31. > :52:35.a long campaign but the passions are running high.

:52:35. > :52:41.Thank you very much, Steven. I'm not sure that they like each other!

:52:41. > :52:47.love the set. It looks like a talent show. You expect the winner to come

:52:47. > :52:52.out... Tonight, Matthew, I will be the MSP for Donside. Wonderful.

:52:52. > :52:54.You have spent a bit of time in Aberdeen during the campaign, was it

:52:54. > :52:59.the haudagain roundabout by-election? There is nothing wrong

:52:59. > :53:03.with that. It is representing constituency issues and it is a huge

:53:03. > :53:07.issue, it is not just the roundabout but the state of the transport. It

:53:07. > :53:12.is the third Don crossing. It is all of the issues about the

:53:12. > :53:19.infrastructure. It is more than that. I started my journalistic

:53:19. > :53:23.career in the 80s in Aberdeen. I love the city, buttion can see

:53:23. > :53:28.alongside the prosperity, the wealth, there is almost no

:53:28. > :53:32.unemployment. Yet there is a sense of anxiety. A sense of insecurity.

:53:32. > :53:39.Aberdeen wonders where it is going. It is a combination of the concerns

:53:39. > :53:44.about the union Street, the Union Terrace Gardens re-development. The

:53:44. > :53:52.issues on transport, infrastructure, the wonder, the concern that other

:53:52. > :53:59.cities are overtalking it not in wealth -- overtaking it, not in

:53:59. > :54:04.wealth but in dynamism. Even the City of Culture decision going to

:54:04. > :54:10.Dundee it is not a sense of gloom, it really is not, how can it be when

:54:10. > :54:17.the economy of the place is booming. It is a sense of disquiet, anxiety

:54:17. > :54:21.and a wonder of what happens if the oil runs out. There is a real sense

:54:21. > :54:27.of disquiet, alongside all of that prosperity. That is the conundrum.

:54:27. > :54:32.That is what the haudagain roundabout represents. It is a Totem

:54:32. > :54:35.for whether Aberdeen is being, late real, in this case, by-passed.

:54:35. > :54:39.The Liberal Democrats argued that Aberdeen gets a raw deal from the

:54:39. > :54:43.Scottish Government and from the UK Government too? I think in terms of

:54:43. > :54:50.the raw deal from the Scottish Government it is clear in

:54:50. > :54:57.legislation. We had assurances that a floor of 85% of funding to the

:54:57. > :55:02.Government would be set. That nobody fall below that floor. Yet we have

:55:02. > :55:07.seen Aberdeen fall below that floor to the tune of about �26 million.

:55:07. > :55:12.Everyone will have their ideas about how to invest that �26 million, but

:55:12. > :55:16.the obvious example, this comes back to Brian's point is in terms of not

:55:16. > :55:20.just the haudagain roundabout but the transport infrastructure. There

:55:20. > :55:24.is a contrast in terms of the success and the dynamism that is

:55:24. > :55:28.there in the North East and in Aberdeen, but with an infrastructure

:55:29. > :55:34.that is not able to sustain and support that. Therefore that plays

:55:34. > :55:41.into the anxieties. But it isn't that as much the fault

:55:41. > :55:45.of the Labour/liberal Democrat, executive of the past. Of

:55:45. > :55:50.councillors, of all hues who have been in charge down the years of

:55:51. > :55:56.Aberdeen? You can't point the finger at one? There have been concerns

:55:56. > :56:01.over a period. I think what we saw was a series of bold claims and

:56:01. > :56:05.promising from the commitments of the SNP in opposition. Indeed, into

:56:05. > :56:10.government about what they would deliver for the North East. They

:56:10. > :56:16.have fallen short of that. That was going to be coming back off

:56:16. > :56:21.the doorsteps when I was there. As well as, I have to say, the issue of

:56:21. > :56:27.independence. I think that Maureen Watt was right. You did not have to

:56:27. > :56:31.have it on the leaf thes, it was coming off the doors spontaneously.

:56:31. > :56:36.Whatever the success of the SNP in the North East, it was dramatic,

:56:36. > :56:41.that was not a vote for independence. What we will see is

:56:41. > :56:46.the slipping back of support for the SNP. Although Maureen's suggestion

:56:46. > :56:50.that anything over 450 votes being a triumph for Mark McDonald took a

:56:50. > :56:54.little bit of doubting. But the constitution did not catch

:56:54. > :57:01.on as an issue in the by-election that is what it seemed when I was

:57:01. > :57:05.there? It was not the SNP leaf thes it was not in there. That is clear

:57:05. > :57:08.from the groups, from the conversations on the doorsteps that

:57:08. > :57:15.independence is not popular. They did all they could not to talk about

:57:15. > :57:21.When you saw or heard voxpops and people talking of what they regarded

:57:21. > :57:26.as the issues, it did not seem to come up, did it? Or was it own when

:57:26. > :57:29.you prompted that issue to be dealt with? It is clear from the time I

:57:30. > :57:34.was in Aberdeen. A huge amount of people were undecided about how to

:57:34. > :57:39.vote. That is to be the story of tonight. How the undecided voters

:57:39. > :57:45.break. For them the independence was an issue. They did not want it. It

:57:45. > :57:50.is the type of voter who looks to the SNP, they have not done a bad

:57:50. > :57:54.job in government but I don't want independence, what do I do with the

:57:54. > :58:01.vote? That is the biggest debate tonight.

:58:01. > :58:07.Is it not an issue to make this part of the campaign when we know that

:58:07. > :58:13.independence is part of this one way or the other? But this is about home

:58:13. > :58:19.affairs, global affairs, the discussion we earlier is tant mount

:58:20. > :58:24.to that. Had if I can tell you that the biggest thing in my inbox is

:58:24. > :58:28.about global poverty and the Enough Food If campaign, we would not have

:58:28. > :58:32.had a voice if we had been independent. Scotland would not have

:58:32. > :58:36.been a part of the discussions around the table. Those are the

:58:36. > :58:40.issues that people care about. That is what I take from the campaign.

:58:40. > :58:45.That the SNP wanted to do anything about talking about independence on

:58:45. > :58:55.the doorstep but it is all that they talk about in Holyrood.

:58:55. > :58:58.

:58:58. > :59:04.You did not mention this in the campaign, ous but -- Yousaf Raza

:59:04. > :59:08.Gillani but what did you think? Well, there was phone can vansing

:59:08. > :59:14.about independence, we put out a survey asking the question about

:59:14. > :59:24.independence and the results of that were positive. 19,000 responses. A

:59:24. > :59:25.

:59:25. > :59:31.third of the Donside constituency. I'll give you the results of this.

:59:31. > :59:35.29% want wanted the status quo. 34 for independence, 37% don't know. A

:59:36. > :59:39.huge shift, actual', in regards to that. It is positive. The idea that

:59:39. > :59:44.we don't talk about independence, I have given four examples. Labour

:59:44. > :59:48.saying that they don't think it should be about independence but the

:59:48. > :59:53.leaflet they put out today, was your chance to say "no" to separation. So

:59:53. > :59:59.they are trying to make a verdict. Joanne Lamont, don't forget, when it

:59:59. > :00:05.comes to the election, this is her first electoral challenge,

:00:05. > :00:11.opportunity if she wishes, after the cuts commission agenda to cut public

:00:11. > :00:14.services. It could be endorsements from Sir

:00:14. > :00:18.Alex Ferguson, Alex McLeish or anyone else. They have tried to make

:00:18. > :00:21.this about independence. We have kept to local issues and talking

:00:21. > :00:25.about independence but if Labour don't win the seat that they once

:00:25. > :00:29.held, this will be a dramatic verdict on her leadership and indeed

:00:29. > :00:34.the campaign and scaremongering against independence.

:00:34. > :00:40.We have had several council by-elections, the SNP has not won

:00:40. > :00:45.one. It is ridiculous for you to say that this is a test against Joanne

:00:45. > :00:52.Lamont. Every time we have been put to the voters we have won well.

:00:52. > :00:57.After the cuts commission speech she has not had an electoral challenge

:00:57. > :01:05.on this kale. Labour have hit everything Donside. The fact that

:01:05. > :01:11.you think that is great result... You you had leaf thes, you had

:01:11. > :01:16.former footballers? I am more than happy to say we have put effort into

:01:16. > :01:20.the Donside campaign. Yes had Nicola Sturgeon, Alex Salmond. Heavyweight

:01:20. > :01:25.figures coming up. We have put in the effort. We believe that the

:01:25. > :01:28.people of Aberdeen should be represented as well as they were

:01:28. > :01:34.with Brian Adam as they were with Mark McDonald.

:01:34. > :01:38.And now the votes have been verified in Donside, the count proper is now

:01:39. > :01:45.under way. We can give a figure for the turn out it is certainly not

:01:45. > :01:49.impressive. The figure for Donside, 38%. That is

:01:49. > :01:54.a pretty low turn out, but how does it compare, Professor John Curtice?

:01:54. > :02:01.Well, it is not that bad given what we expect for by-elections these

:02:01. > :02:07.days. It is better than the Glasgow kut cart by-election when only 32%

:02:07. > :02:17.turned out, but it is lower than the last by-election, when 46% turned

:02:17. > :02:19.

:02:19. > :02:23.out. This is a constituency where I think this is about the turn out

:02:23. > :02:26.that we expect, given the past records, and the difficulties of

:02:26. > :02:31.getting voters to come to the polls for anything.

:02:31. > :02:36.It is not a huge boost to democracy but they have given the

:02:36. > :02:41.circumstances, it was a bright day in abdeeb. It either encouraged

:02:41. > :02:48.people to think about politics or... Think about sunning themselveses!

:02:48. > :02:52.really hate to pick up on a couple of things but let's do it.

:02:52. > :03:01.When Hamza says that the Labour Party were going for endorsements,

:03:01. > :03:07.the MPs were stressing that Joey was back. And proud of my connections.

:03:07. > :03:11.And Lewis McDonald said that the, the Labour Party, rather, had been

:03:11. > :03:17.suffering personal attacks from the SNP. The Labour candidate strike

:03:17. > :03:23.Mark McDonald as a boy trying to do a man's job. If that is not insult,

:03:23. > :03:28.I'm not sure what is. I wonder if like ruth Davidson he

:03:28. > :03:33.should have to present ID if he turned up at a bar? Oh! If I had

:03:33. > :03:38.been asked for ID, that really would have been something.

:03:38. > :03:44.You sent your party leader to buy the round? ! She offered to buy me a

:03:44. > :03:52.drink in our egalitarian approach, glen for uch events.

:03:52. > :03:55.This was at a Bruce Springsteen concert? Yes, a great concert for a

:03:55. > :04:01.63-year-old guy to give his very best.

:04:01. > :04:06.I didn't realise you were 63! You played it differently in the

:04:06. > :04:09.campaign. Trying to rise above the battle between the two main parties

:04:09. > :04:14.contesting the election, do you think that will have paid off for

:04:14. > :04:19.you? I think that we wanted to present a positive campaign. We saw

:04:19. > :04:27.in the clip a while ago that Labour and SNP were at each other's

:04:27. > :04:30.throats. I think for an outsider to the Aberdeen area, it was almost an

:04:31. > :04:39.election about who is to blame for the Irish us that the people face.

:04:39. > :04:44.Was it is the SNP Government or the Labour-led Council? Rather than

:04:45. > :04:49.anybody presenting a positive alternative to issues in the

:04:49. > :04:52.community, but I think what is clear is that this by-election will have

:04:52. > :04:58.absolutely no impact whatsoever on the referendum.

:04:58. > :05:02.That is your candidate, Ross Thomson. A young councillor on the

:05:02. > :05:06.City of Aberdeen and the Tories in administration with the Labour

:05:06. > :05:11.Party. Labour in the lead. A quick word on your choice of

:05:11. > :05:15.candidate. Do you think you made a mistake to choose the finances

:05:15. > :05:24.convener on a council which, for whatever reason is having to make

:05:24. > :05:30.cuts for which he is ultimately responsible? He has given years of

:05:30. > :05:34.public service, but he is also a successful businessman. A lot of

:05:34. > :05:40.people in Aberdeen would like that type of candidate that has

:05:40. > :05:49.experience of business and public service. You got an honest appraisal

:05:49. > :05:53.of the big issues that matter. To honest? Not at all, I like honesty!

:05:53. > :05:57.That is him on the campaign trail. We will talk more about the

:05:57. > :06:01.panellists in a little while. Those who have followed this campaign

:06:01. > :06:09.closely might think people in Aberdeen spent all day going round

:06:09. > :06:13.and round on the roundabout. But it is a part of Scotland which has a

:06:13. > :06:19.rich political history, often described as SMP heartland. What

:06:19. > :06:29.makes the north-east tech? What do people care about? Is there more to

:06:29. > :06:44.

:06:44. > :06:50.There is no doubting the colour of the north-east, it was once a sea of

:06:50. > :06:57.Tory blue, but then a few shoots of yellow began to grow around the

:06:57. > :07:05.edges. It felt ripped -- it very quickly took root, and now, like the

:07:05. > :07:14.rape seed in the countryside, SMP Dello dominates. After the slump of

:07:14. > :07:18.1979, the Nationalists struggled to make inroads. But it was in coastal

:07:18. > :07:23.communities that the Conservatives started lose their grip. The

:07:23. > :07:26.fisheries policy was hitting the industry hard, deep blue was fading,

:07:26. > :07:32.and the Tory MP represented the government would force allowing this

:07:32. > :07:35.Brussels rule. There was a new kid on the block, and in the face of

:07:35. > :07:43.these damaging European restrictions, he was offering to be

:07:43. > :07:48.the fisherman's friend. The UK entered the fishing industry, and

:07:48. > :07:58.that led to a raft of new rules and regulations that fisherman had not

:07:58. > :07:59.

:07:59. > :08:04.faced before. When we arrived in 1987, when the election was fought,

:08:04. > :08:08.the immunity had affinity for the MP, but with all of these things

:08:08. > :08:17.ongoing and the distress in the industry, what you saw what the

:08:17. > :08:20.fisherman saying, we do not like this policy. Alex Salmond one in

:08:20. > :08:27.1987, and fishing has been a significant part of his policies

:08:27. > :08:30.since. The Nationalists' resurgence in the north-east was taking shape.

:08:30. > :08:37.More support would come with devolution, especially in rural

:08:37. > :08:41.areas. Farming an important part of the local economy. But with next

:08:41. > :08:45.year looming, some of the farmers are turning their backs on the

:08:45. > :08:52.yellow and launching a campaign against independence. But even they

:08:52. > :08:55.accept the SNP have not been their enemies. The SNP have done a

:08:55. > :09:02.reasonably acceptable job, as far as we are concerned, north of the

:09:02. > :09:11.border. That is pretty well accepted by the farming community. That is a

:09:11. > :09:17.very approachable -- the is an approachable guy, he does his best

:09:17. > :09:20.to address issues when he can. But having said that, I still believe

:09:20. > :09:27.that the majority of farming folk are conservatives at heart, although

:09:27. > :09:32.they might have voted SNP as a protest vote from time to time.

:09:32. > :09:37.After conquering the rule vote, the city would be next. Brian Adam

:09:37. > :09:47.driving home a big victory in 2003. Guess what was a big issue even

:09:47. > :09:57.then. Infrastructure has been a hot topic, but in Aberdeen, there is

:09:57. > :10:00.

:10:00. > :10:05.The oil and gas industry is what makes Aberdeen unique, the

:10:05. > :10:08.politicians love it because it raises tax, lots of it. Its

:10:08. > :10:14.businesses care deeply about taxation and economic stability, but

:10:14. > :10:19.seem reluctant to enter any debate about independence. Businesses do

:10:19. > :10:23.not have a vote, each of their employees have a vote. Businesses

:10:23. > :10:28.are sensitive to a tapestry of opinions. They are reluctant to

:10:28. > :10:33.express a -- to express an opinion because they do not have the

:10:33. > :10:37.information yet. The chamber will try to put together the analysis for

:10:37. > :10:43.its members over the next year, but it will take the whole year to

:10:43. > :10:48.winkle it out and lay it out so people can understand the options.

:10:48. > :10:53.The north-east might have a top coat of yellow at Holyrood, but there is

:10:53. > :10:58.a multicoloured rainbow of political allegiances. All four main parties

:10:58. > :11:02.have a splattering of representatives, and there is a

:11:02. > :11:07.splash of green and independence as well. The irony is that the

:11:07. > :11:11.fisherman supported the SNP in the 1980s because the Conservatives were

:11:11. > :11:16.a pro-Europe party. Many felt the Common fisheries policy was

:11:16. > :11:22.destroying their industry. It was the SNP who were banging the drum.

:11:22. > :11:26.Fast forward, and it is the SNP who are talking about an independent

:11:26. > :11:30.Scotland being part of Europe and the Conservatives who are offering

:11:30. > :11:34.the option of the United Kingdom outside Europe. Tings have changed

:11:34. > :11:38.and many fishermen believe that could leave the Nationalists high

:11:38. > :11:42.and dry. I like the fast forward trick, I

:11:42. > :11:47.wonder if we have got a button here that could fast forward as to the

:11:47. > :11:54.result! The count is underway, hopefully we can bring you the

:11:54. > :12:04.result before 2am. That is our hope, if not necessarily our expectation.

:12:04. > :12:05.

:12:05. > :12:11.Let's talk about the north-east. The SMP -- the SNP seem to have carved

:12:11. > :12:18.out the territory and made it their own. How did they do it? Primarily,

:12:18. > :12:24.by being able to exploit local issues. Perhaps suggesting that what

:12:24. > :12:29.he was talking about, Aberdeen feeling left out, but also, the SNP

:12:29. > :12:36.managed to champion local interest in the north-east, to do with

:12:36. > :12:42.farming and fishing. What is also true, having managed to capture some

:12:42. > :12:48.of those seats, they have managed to embed themselves in them through the

:12:48. > :12:56.popularity of the representatives. If you define the north-east,

:12:56. > :13:03.including Perth and Moray, nine of the ten top SNP seats are in the

:13:03. > :13:09.area. It has become a remarkable concentration. We do not know if it

:13:09. > :13:13.is to do with independence, very few independent opinion polls give us

:13:13. > :13:20.evidence about the regional breakdown, but we are not aware of

:13:20. > :13:23.any particular evidence that north-east are particularly keen.

:13:23. > :13:32.underline the remarkable situation that exists in that part of the

:13:32. > :13:36.country, with Mark McDonald having resigned to stand as a candidate, if

:13:36. > :13:42.he is elected, if anything happened to anybody else on the ten Mac row

:13:42. > :13:47.list, there is not a replacement. Yes, and you are talking about Alex

:13:47. > :13:57.Salmond's majority, notionally, if the Labour Party were to win the

:13:57. > :14:07.

:14:07. > :14:12.seat, one of the opposition party wins, in practice, the independent,

:14:12. > :14:18.those who stepped down over NATO, tend to vote with the SNP, we are

:14:18. > :14:25.talking about a notional majority. The north-east generally is a SNP

:14:25. > :14:32.stronghold, but you have some real Liberal Democrat positions. This

:14:32. > :14:37.patch of Aberdeen, to the north of the city, Brian Adam was a list MSP

:14:37. > :14:42.in 1999, he took it with a tiny majority, and he has increased it

:14:42. > :14:50.exponentially to a large figure, but this patch of Aberdeen, the northern

:14:50. > :15:00.half of the city, has been Labour in the past. You look at the days of

:15:00. > :15:03.

:15:03. > :15:09.Bob Hughes, , you did not count. This is an area they have had to

:15:09. > :15:16.win, through hard, diligent effort. Brian Adam did three things. There

:15:16. > :15:21.was a personal vote, somebody said that he took the new members and

:15:21. > :15:26.gave them support, he said, diligent, hard constituency work,

:15:26. > :15:34.but the third thing was organisation, we saw the Chief

:15:34. > :15:43.Executive of the party. Nothing was being left to chance. He was talking

:15:43. > :15:47.about the swing that might go from one side to the other.

:15:47. > :15:52.north-west constituency is still a Labour Party seat. If we were

:15:52. > :15:57.talking about a by-election in Aberdeen North, we would be

:15:57. > :16:03.anticipating a Labour victory, so that exemplifies a crucial truth

:16:03. > :16:07.about Scottish politics, that voters in Scotland about differently in

:16:07. > :16:11.Scottish Parliamentary elections from in Westminster elections, and

:16:12. > :16:17.ironically, devolution, which was meant to keep the Nationalists in

:16:17. > :16:22.their box, to kill nationalism, has provided the SNP with a political

:16:22. > :16:31.platform and environment that has allowed it to be successful. That is

:16:31. > :16:35.the reason why we have ended up with a referendum. What is interesting is

:16:35. > :16:40.if, in voting for SNP, people are wanting to vote for independence,

:16:40. > :16:50.rather than voting for a party which defends Scotland's interests within

:16:50. > :16:58.the UK. The political panel has changed very slightly. Liam McArthur

:16:58. > :17:02.has been replaced by the MP for Edinburgh West. In terms of the

:17:02. > :17:07.Labour Party and the extent to which they have lost ground to the SNP in

:17:07. > :17:12.this part of the country, what is the internal analysis in the Labour

:17:12. > :17:14.Party, what do you think has happened? We have got a

:17:14. > :17:17.sophisticated electorate, who are happy to vote for a political party

:17:17. > :17:25.in Westminster and do something different in the Scottish

:17:25. > :17:29.Parliament. Why do voters in Aberdeen Donside prefer to be

:17:29. > :17:35.represented by the Nationalists, why have they preferred that for the

:17:35. > :17:39.last ten years, and why has the Labour Party not bounced back?

:17:39. > :17:49.has got less to do with stun up for Scotland's interest and more to do

:17:49. > :17:49.

:17:49. > :17:54.with individual interests. SNP stand up for tax cuts. It is looking after

:17:54. > :17:59.the pound in the pocket. It is a sense of retail politics that they

:17:59. > :18:05.went into the elections with. last Holyrood election, the Labour

:18:05. > :18:08.Party supported the council tax freeze also. And then the SNP

:18:08. > :18:13.increased the retail politics and put a better deal on the shelf,

:18:13. > :18:19.which proves the point. But it was popular. Does that make it a bad

:18:19. > :18:27.idea? Politics is getting cynical. It is about the top five offers that

:18:27. > :18:30.you have got. They were putting out the leaflets today, Mark McDonald

:18:30. > :18:36.will not save your school, because he will be voting for independence

:18:36. > :18:40.in Holyrood. You have to make the case in your local council. A lot of

:18:40. > :18:45.people will see through that. is the Liberal Democrat plan to win

:18:45. > :18:54.back lost support in places like Aberdeen South, which your party

:18:54. > :18:59.leader used to represent? Or in places like the Gordon constituency,

:18:59. > :19:05.it used to be Liberal Democrat in Holyrood, but now is represented by

:19:06. > :19:11.Alex Salmond. Absolutely. We will have to wait and see what the

:19:11. > :19:19.results are in the Poulter night. You are not predicting a late

:19:19. > :19:25.surge? A late game, yes! No, I am not at all. We took a beating two

:19:25. > :19:29.years ago will stop let's see what the results tonight. What has

:19:29. > :19:34.happened to the vote in those intervening two years. I am asking

:19:34. > :19:44.about strategy. The strategy is to make it clear what we are delivering

:19:44. > :19:48.in Westminster. Every taxpayer in Aberdeen has received 600 pounds tax

:19:48. > :19:52.cuts in the last three years, and it will be �700 next year. Pensioners

:19:53. > :19:58.have received the largest single increase they have ever had. We need

:19:58. > :20:06.to talk about what we have delivered in government, and by doing that, we

:20:07. > :20:11.can win people back. We saw Christine Jardine, a former special

:20:11. > :20:16.adviser to the UK Government. A moment or two ago, that is the live

:20:16. > :20:22.scene at the count as the votes stack up and we get ever closer

:20:22. > :20:30.towards a declaration. Of course we will bring that to you live. All in

:20:30. > :20:35.terms of numbers is 38% in the turn out. We have discussed that, but the

:20:35. > :20:40.North East, as Kezia Dugdale said, it is SNP Heartland territory. Do

:20:40. > :20:45.you think that could be at risk over the European issue, which is where

:20:45. > :20:50.the report by Kevin Keane ended earlier, if there is scepticism

:20:50. > :20:59.about the European Union among fishermen, farmers, that the

:20:59. > :21:03.possibility of getting out of the E U when the referendum that the

:21:03. > :21:08.Conservative Party is offering comes around, may be more attractive than

:21:09. > :21:16.you have to offer? Well, the idea of the SNP Heartland, coming overnight

:21:16. > :21:22.is a logical fallacy. An incredible amount of heart work, entrenchment

:21:22. > :21:27.and as Brian Adam was saying, it is -- as Brian Taylor was saying, it is

:21:27. > :21:34.something that Brian Adam said also, was that this was horde work and

:21:34. > :21:39.hard graft. Exploiting the fact that Labour thought that they had devine

:21:39. > :21:43.rule over, but in terms of the specific question with regards to

:21:43. > :21:48.the fisherman is Scotland's voice represented in the EU. There is a

:21:48. > :21:52.situation where if Scotland wishes to maintain its membership in the

:21:52. > :21:56.European Union, to have a voice through the Scottish government, the

:21:56. > :22:02.only way to do that is to vote "yes" next year.

:22:02. > :22:08.But then you would not have the UK's clout in order to influence the

:22:08. > :22:13.overall decision-making... That involves all 28 countries? If you

:22:13. > :22:17.look at how successful independent small European Union nations are,

:22:17. > :22:23.they are incredibly successful when it comes to negotiations. In fact

:22:23. > :22:27.more nimble and they are able to make alliances with other small

:22:27. > :22:33.countries and nations within the European Union. So it is patronising

:22:33. > :22:36.to say that Scotland not hold its on. I think that they can do it

:22:36. > :22:42.well. You would have fewer votes to bring

:22:42. > :22:47.to the table to get your own way? But the voice we would have at

:22:47. > :22:52.council meetings with the Scottish government ministers, they have made

:22:52. > :22:56.that voice well. They could be going further with their own independent

:22:56. > :23:02.voice. And briefly on the European theme,

:23:02. > :23:07.David? Nonsense. He proceeds on the basis that the Nistlerooys use a lot

:23:07. > :23:11.of time. There is no evidence of small countries coming together to

:23:11. > :23:16.overcome the large countries it is the large countries in Europe that

:23:16. > :23:20.call the shots. That's why the United Kingdom has been able to get

:23:20. > :23:25.finally a good deal on fishing for Scotland which will give more

:23:25. > :23:30.regional control over our fisheries. Scotland on its own could not have

:23:30. > :23:35.gotten that deal. In the past, in order to protect

:23:35. > :23:41.broader UK interests, you sacrificed the interests of the Scottish

:23:41. > :23:45.fishing industry. That has come out in the paperwork down the years?

:23:45. > :23:49.don't accept that. Obviously, the United Kingdom has to have a

:23:49. > :23:53.position that takes into account the interests of the whole of the United

:23:53. > :23:59.Kingdom, but there have been times... There have been times when

:23:59. > :24:04.the fishing has not been a priority for the UK? No. I don't accept that.

:24:04. > :24:08.What I point to is a very, very good example of the United Kingdom

:24:08. > :24:13.getting a very good deal for Scotland. There is absolutely no

:24:13. > :24:18.evidence to back up this assertion that small countries come together

:24:18. > :24:24.to defeat the larger interests in Europe. That is not how it works.

:24:24. > :24:31.OK. We will come back to you all in due course. Now let's go back live

:24:31. > :24:38.to Aberdeen, to the count. Now to Steve Godden. He has guests with

:24:38. > :24:42.him. Before you bring them in, Steven, I happen to know you

:24:43. > :24:49.reporting from Aberdeen Donside is a bit of a home-coming is it not?

:24:49. > :24:53.is. Yes. I grew up here in the constituency. From a personal tlefl

:24:53. > :24:57.is a delight to come back and see the old haurts, but it is

:24:57. > :25:01.interesting to see how things have changed and in some ways stayed the

:25:02. > :25:06.same. I remember learning to drive on the haudagain roundabout. People

:25:06. > :25:10.are still talking about it, that is 17 years ago. So there are long-term

:25:10. > :25:14.concerns that the people are still talking about it, and they still

:25:14. > :25:19.want it addressed. A little update from what is happening in the room.

:25:19. > :25:23.I get the sense that things have calmed down after the initial flurry

:25:23. > :25:29.of xierment. Maybe after the long campaign, the adrenaline is starting

:25:29. > :25:34.to wear off, but what I would say is that maybe the caffeine will kick in

:25:34. > :25:44.soon. The one thing we have had confirmed since I spoke to you was

:25:44. > :25:46.

:25:46. > :25:51.the turnout. That is 38 peshz. With me are two gentlemen, Sir Malcolm

:25:51. > :25:55.Bruce and how do you read that turn out? It is disappointing with a turn

:25:55. > :26:01.out as low as that. The majority have not taken part. I think that

:26:01. > :26:08.there has been a lack of inspiration from the two candidates. That people

:26:08. > :26:14.are upset that Aberdeen been left the most underfunded council in

:26:14. > :26:17.Scotland. Also they are looking at a Labour-led administration council

:26:17. > :26:22.that seems antidevelopment. So people are angry at both the Labour

:26:22. > :26:27.and the SNP. That is why our vote appears to have gone up. People want

:26:27. > :26:31.to see the transport situation resolved. They want everything ready

:26:31. > :26:35.to go. They want to see Aberdeen getting a fair funding. They

:26:35. > :26:40.contribute a huge amount in the economy, yet people are happy to

:26:40. > :26:45.spend that money in the central belt. People are angry about that.

:26:45. > :26:49.How do you assess what is happening tonight? We had a poor showing last

:26:49. > :26:55.year. We have tried to draw the support back. What we are pleased

:26:55. > :27:01.with is that the issues we raced on the doorstep have been fed back.

:27:01. > :27:07.People have come back to say thank you for the third Donside crossing.

:27:07. > :27:13.Thank you for the Western peripheral Route which the Liberal Democrats

:27:13. > :27:17.initiated with the support of others. They are asking why does the

:27:18. > :27:26.haudagain have to wait. They are concerned -- concerned about the

:27:26. > :27:28.school mergers that give no benefit to the community. They also feel

:27:28. > :27:32.that they lack support from the council.

:27:32. > :27:37.We have been talking about the issues for a long time. Your party

:27:37. > :27:43.has been in power for that period. If I take you, the third Donside

:27:43. > :27:46.crossing it is ready to go with the planning permission, with all of the

:27:46. > :27:50.structure plans as the Liberal Democrats took it forward when we

:27:50. > :27:55.left the council. It took ten years to get it to go. The Labour group

:27:55. > :27:59.have said that they would block it if they could. They tried to, but if

:27:59. > :28:07.people see it ready to go, the tender should be out, it should be

:28:07. > :28:10.built. The same with the western peripheral route. Why is it not

:28:10. > :28:14.going? They are dragging their feet on

:28:14. > :28:19.stuff we have ready to go. It would apeefr that the SNP are

:28:19. > :28:29.going to hold the seat, but there has been a drop in the society

:28:29. > :28:29.

:28:30. > :28:36.share. It has drop #d from 55% in 2011 -- it has dropped from 55%. The

:28:36. > :28:40.message from this by-election that they will not get 50% here and they

:28:40. > :28:45.will struggle if they can't do it in their heartlands.

:28:45. > :28:49.If independence has been a big issue on the doorsteps for the people, why

:28:49. > :28:53.has it not been an issue in the campaign. The SNP have been allowed

:28:54. > :28:59.to fight this on their terms, you could have done more to stop that,

:28:59. > :29:04.couldn't you? The way in which the independence manifests sits is the

:29:04. > :29:09.fact that people are becoming disinterested in politics. That is

:29:09. > :29:14.partly the explanation for the low turnout. There is a measurable

:29:14. > :29:18.distaste for some of the campaigning going on. This is why the inspect

:29:18. > :29:24.inspect have been able to turn out with enough votes to win the

:29:24. > :29:28.by-election. They will look at the figures and be as disappointed as

:29:28. > :29:33.they were. What about your share of the vote?

:29:33. > :29:37.wonder if UKIP are a factor in this? Probably not. We are in a position

:29:37. > :29:41.where we are confident that the Conservatives and the Liberal

:29:41. > :29:46.Democrats will take the third and the fourth place, but at the moment

:29:46. > :29:51.we are not sure who is going to be third and who will be fourth.

:29:51. > :29:57.Perhaps Malcolm and I can have a bet on that, but it is clear that UKIP

:29:57. > :30:00.have picked up some votes, but I would be surprised if they held them

:30:00. > :30:09.later tonight. Are you willing to place a bet on

:30:10. > :30:14.the third place? I gather that our agents have a bolt of Highland Park,

:30:14. > :30:19.but I hope that the democrats win, I would like a nip of that whisky, but

:30:19. > :30:26.we have the potential to be squeezed. This is a by-election for

:30:26. > :30:30.Labour to win. They have failed to do that but the SNP has failed to

:30:30. > :30:35.galvanise people to support them. The wheels are coming off. People

:30:35. > :30:41.are beginning to realise that the independence is a very, very big

:30:41. > :30:46.project. I am surprised by the passion of the people saying that

:30:46. > :30:55.they don't wish to do that. Here in the North East of Scotland, they

:30:55. > :31:00.have been happy to take our votes but only 1% of the Scotland seat.

:31:00. > :31:03.The control has been taken away from the fair service, they are

:31:03. > :31:07.strangling local government with squeezes. People are beginning to

:31:07. > :31:11.realise that this is a nasty centralising party that does not

:31:11. > :31:15.give places like the North East room to breathe. People are angry. And

:31:15. > :31:19.that is just the girning of the tide. When the tied turns against

:31:19. > :31:24.the SNP in the North East it could turn a big way.

:31:24. > :31:30.We have seen closures of schools in the by-election, but the reason for

:31:30. > :31:33.that pressure on schools in Aberdeen is that the SNP are not giving

:31:33. > :31:37.Aberdeen its fair share fr local government funding. So there is

:31:37. > :31:42.pressure but the inspect. SNP are behind that.

:31:42. > :31:49.But you are looking to close these schools? Well, the council of

:31:49. > :31:53.administration is doing what is necessary. The Conservatives in

:31:53. > :31:59.particular have been instruments in that. We talked about the third on

:31:59. > :32:05.crossing. Its was a motion in the name of Ross Thomson that finally

:32:05. > :32:09.put up Project in Motion that is something that Ross has been able to

:32:09. > :32:16.claim as his success as a first year for at councillor. So a lot of work

:32:16. > :32:22.is being done in Aberdeen. This is a dynamic place. An important part of

:32:22. > :32:26.the economy, but one in which an SNP government is dragging its feet.

:32:26. > :32:31.The other thing that came through, there is a sense of unease about the

:32:31. > :32:35.direction in which Aberdeen is heading. Perhaps it has not the

:32:35. > :32:40.rewards for the oil money that was flown through to this city for a

:32:40. > :32:45.long time. People are saying this is the oil capital of the world, it

:32:45. > :32:51.does not feel nor like like it. That is damaging to the economy. The

:32:51. > :32:57.thing that concerns me is a lack of urgency with the Scottish Government

:32:57. > :33:04.to unlock the dynamic that is necessary. I will not make an issue

:33:04. > :33:10.of the fact. We don't have an overall majority, but Labour lead

:33:10. > :33:14.the administration and Labour appear negative and hostile to a vision of

:33:14. > :33:23.development for apdeeb. The first thing to happen was to resers the

:33:23. > :33:30.decision on the rum -- was to reverse the decision on the Football

:33:30. > :33:34.Club and it was to get this through. What we have is a spat between

:33:34. > :33:39.Labour and the SNP for territory, where the people of Aberdeen are the

:33:39. > :33:44.victims, they are not the gainers. They are not delivering of them,

:33:44. > :33:47.either of them for the North East of Scotland. This has been

:33:47. > :33:51.characterised as a by-election for a roundabout. How do you think that

:33:51. > :33:58.the by-election will be remembered in terms of significance? It will be

:33:58. > :34:04.remembered as a by-election that was fought on local issues. You have

:34:05. > :34:08.heard, if -- that was on the impact of the local issues, Aberdeen has

:34:08. > :34:13.problems, the bottleneck, the haudagain roundabout, most of us

:34:13. > :34:20.will participate in that campaign will have had to suffer to get in

:34:21. > :34:25.and out of the constituency. It has high lighted the issues. Hope that

:34:26. > :34:31.whatever wins will go back and fight the corner for Aberdeen, for the

:34:31. > :34:35.advertisement it needs and does not make the error of following the

:34:35. > :34:39.Government practise. Glen, I will carry on with the trip

:34:39. > :34:49.down memory lane. We will be back soon when I hope to hear from UKIP.

:34:49. > :34:49.

:34:49. > :34:53.Come back soon. You are watching a Newsnight

:34:53. > :34:58.Scotland special, and our promise is to stay on air until we get the

:34:58. > :35:04.declaration in Aberdeen Donside. Some time, we hope, between now and

:35:04. > :35:11.2am. The longer it takes, the more likely we are to give you a treat

:35:11. > :35:17.from the BBC election archive. We have been looking through that

:35:17. > :35:23.today, and we have found a classic report by Vincent Hanna on the 1982

:35:23. > :35:28.Hillhead by-election, the Westminster by-election, one of the

:35:28. > :35:35.famous by-elections in Scottish electoral history. We will play it

:35:35. > :35:42.in full if we have not had a result by 1:15am. It will demonstrate how

:35:42. > :35:49.much campaigning has changed over the last 30 years. I was six years

:35:49. > :35:55.old in 1982. What age where you? You can go off people! I was sitting

:35:56. > :36:01.here, trying not to disclose the fact that I covered that

:36:01. > :36:06.by-election, as a child reporter! I was at Westminster, I went up to

:36:06. > :36:16.have a look at it, because it was stunning. Other treats me include

:36:16. > :36:18.

:36:18. > :36:25.the contents of John Curtice was Mike favourite oak. 1832 to 2012.

:36:25. > :36:32.Did you have a favourite electoral pact? We tend to rule the winners

:36:32. > :36:36.and leave the losers to their sad fate. But occasionally, losers do

:36:36. > :36:42.something remarkable. The candidate who has done the worst ever in a

:36:42. > :36:47.general election, Taylor Dawson in Cardiff North, the authors of the

:36:47. > :36:52.book say they are not quite sure if it is right, but she only got one

:36:52. > :37:02.vote. Given that you have got to get eight or ten people to nominate

:37:02. > :37:02.

:37:02. > :37:09.you, she did rather badly! It might be that she ended up spreading her

:37:09. > :37:14.vote to Finlay, because she did not just fight one constituency, she

:37:14. > :37:21.fought all of them in Cardiff, and she did better elsewhere, but she

:37:21. > :37:25.missed out in Cardiff North. Did she have a vote in that constituency? !

:37:25. > :37:30.With a name like hers, it was not immediately obvious that she was

:37:30. > :37:35.somebody that would appeal to everybody who comes from Wales, but

:37:35. > :37:41.maybe that is reading too much into it. They had not invented the symbol

:37:41. > :37:46.loser by that point! We were talking about independence and the extent to

:37:46. > :37:51.which it played in the Aberdeen Donside campaign. It is beyond

:37:51. > :37:57.question the dominant issue of Scottish politics, and will remain

:37:57. > :38:01.so until the referendum on the 18th of September next year. Brian Taylor

:38:01. > :38:07.has been looking at some of the polling on that, and here is what he

:38:07. > :38:12.found. Here is the agreed referendum

:38:12. > :38:15.question, should Scotland be an independent country? What will be

:38:16. > :38:20.the answer from the people of Scotland? Academics have been

:38:20. > :38:26.chucking opinion polls. This is the picture from polls this year, which

:38:27. > :38:34.asked the question. The graph suggests a consistent, variable read

:38:34. > :38:41.for those supporting the union. Support for independence ranges at

:38:41. > :38:48.around 36%, but opposition to independence fairies. Between ten

:38:48. > :38:52.and 21% say they are undecided. Could that picture change? Better

:38:52. > :38:57.together campaigners said they finding the views on the doorstep

:38:57. > :39:02.are backing the junior. But the yes campaign say they can and will sway

:39:02. > :39:07.opinion to their side. Their canvassers asked people to place

:39:07. > :39:13.themselves on a spectrum from one, complete opposition to independence,

:39:13. > :39:17.to ten, total support for independence. They acknowledge that

:39:17. > :39:24.the default position currently lies closer to one down to ten. But they

:39:24. > :39:29.detect signs that it is moving their way. What might sway popular

:39:29. > :39:35.opinion? The economy. Remember this? The Scottish social attitudes

:39:35. > :39:40.survey. Respondents were asked their views if it could be guaranteed that

:39:40. > :39:46.they would be �500 better off each year under independence. The survey

:39:46. > :39:52.suggested they would back independence by 65 to 25. But turned

:39:52. > :39:57.that around, voters were asked their views if it could be shown they

:39:57. > :40:01.would be �500 worse off. Independence was rigid did. As

:40:01. > :40:10.ever, the pound in the pocket matters.

:40:10. > :40:15.Let's talk a bit about that. Were you surprised? That is research that

:40:15. > :40:20.you have been involved in. Were you surprised when the �500 question

:40:20. > :40:26.produced such marked results? were not that surprised. Underneath

:40:26. > :40:29.that question is also the fact that, if you do what we like to do, try to

:40:30. > :40:36.keep track of what is driving people, and asked people what they

:40:36. > :40:45.think independence would bring, and relate that to whether they are for

:40:45. > :40:50.or against it, the expectation about independence that most matters, is

:40:50. > :40:54.most clearly related to whether people are for or against, is there

:40:55. > :40:59.few as to whether the economy would be better or worse. To that extent,

:40:59. > :41:06.it is clear that this is the issue which seems most capable of writing

:41:06. > :41:13.public opinion. One thing to say, it is giving you some indication of the

:41:13. > :41:17.maximum size of the yes and no vote, because it says to people, let's

:41:17. > :41:22.shame you really were convinced that Scotland would be worse off, so if

:41:22. > :41:26.everybody were convinced that they would be better off, maybe two

:41:26. > :41:31.thirds of the country would vote in favour. The question is, can the yes

:41:31. > :41:37.side persuade anything approaching that many that Scotland would be

:41:37. > :41:42.better off? The answer seems to be they have only persuaded around a

:41:42. > :41:48.third of people. A third thing is the God you would be worse off, and

:41:48. > :41:55.a quarter in the middle. At the moment, it seems that the people in

:41:55. > :42:01.the middle also seem to be inclined to say, it is not worth the bother

:42:01. > :42:06.of leaving the union. The problem the yes side face is that they are

:42:06. > :42:11.looking at an asymmetric race, they have to win the argument, the other

:42:11. > :42:17.side just simply have to avoid losing. But if the yes side can win

:42:17. > :42:23.the argument, the potential is there. Are you picking up signs that

:42:23. > :42:28.the yes campaign and the opposite campaign are working hard on

:42:28. > :42:34.economic arguments to seal the deal? Absolutely, but it is an

:42:34. > :42:36.asymmetric race. It is not like a general election, where competing

:42:36. > :42:40.propositions are tested to destruction and the one that

:42:40. > :42:49.survived the best wins. In this case, we will examine what the

:42:49. > :42:52.prounion parties are offering. It is a referendum, with a single

:42:52. > :42:58.proposition of independence being the primary source to be tested.

:42:58. > :43:02.This referendum will proceed by doubt and reassurance. The union

:43:02. > :43:09.parties will not say Scotland cannot be independent, they will throw in

:43:09. > :43:15.the doubts. Primarily about the economy, but also about the European

:43:15. > :43:22.Union membership, etc. You could be independent, but the economy, at the

:43:22. > :43:28.defence profile... It is up to the proponents of independence to offer

:43:28. > :43:32.a more detailed form of reassurance. At the moment, it would seem that

:43:32. > :43:36.the reassurance is not sufficient to trump the doubts that are there in

:43:36. > :43:43.people 's minds, but the reason that the money question is so intriguing,

:43:43. > :43:48.it indicates there is not a fixed view, people are on a spectrum, even

:43:48. > :43:53.those who advocate independence, they concede that the swing is

:43:53. > :43:56.towards the one rather than the 10th, they think if they can pick

:43:56. > :44:04.away at the doubts and get it out in the open and swamp them with

:44:04. > :44:11.reassurance, they can get the swingometer the other side. We have

:44:11. > :44:19.a new member on our panel, Stuart Maxwell from the SNP. Humza Yousaf

:44:19. > :44:24.has gone home to his bed! On independence, I wonder, what is it

:44:24. > :44:30.that the yes campaign are going to do to build support? At what point

:44:30. > :44:33.do you expect the polls to start moving in your favour, if you are

:44:33. > :44:38.convinced you can do this? I am absolutely convinced. I cannot

:44:39. > :44:44.predict when the pulse will shift. If you go back to 2011, the opinion

:44:45. > :44:52.polls up to two months before showed us between ten and 15 points behind,

:44:52. > :44:55.but we won by 18 points. The pulse will shift, next year sometime,

:44:55. > :45:00.people will begin to seriously address the issue of the fact that

:45:00. > :45:06.they have to make a choice in September 2014. Just now, there is a

:45:06. > :45:11.lot of thinking going on. When I talk to people in Aberdeen Donside,

:45:11. > :45:16.I spoke to a lot of people, they said they had not yet really

:45:16. > :45:21.considered it. The opinion polls are not reflecting the fact that most

:45:21. > :45:26.people are in the middle point, they are waiting to hear what everybody

:45:26. > :45:34.has to say. When it comes to reassuring people, are we going to

:45:34. > :45:36.hear more from the Scottish government and the broader yes side

:45:36. > :45:44.about what Scotland would or could continue to share with the rest of

:45:44. > :45:48.the UK? It seems to be emerging as a theme in your campaign. Both things

:45:48. > :45:53.are important, we will say that some things will be the same, some things

:45:53. > :46:00.we will share, it would make sense for an independent Scotland and the

:46:00. > :46:05.rest of the UK to share certain aspects of life going forward, but

:46:05. > :46:09.also, basic administration, we live on the same island, so a lot of

:46:09. > :46:13.things would have to run in tandem. You could not run different

:46:13. > :46:20.timetables for trains. There are practical, sensible things we can

:46:20. > :46:24.run together. They do not matter whether you are independent or not.

:46:24. > :46:28.But the positive issues that we will put forward will be about the

:46:28. > :46:35.differences, the choices we can make, the fact that we can always

:46:35. > :46:39.get the government we want after independence. The best people to

:46:39. > :46:46.decide on the future of Scotland are the people that live here.

:46:46. > :46:51.extent to which the SNP government is offering reassurance on the

:46:51. > :46:56.pensions and welfare Administration or on staying in NATO, keeping the

:46:56. > :47:00.Queen, the pound, do you think that is reassuring people and is

:47:00. > :47:06.neutralising some of the doubts and fears that your side have raised?

:47:06. > :47:10.made an excellent case for the union. What you get from the SNP,

:47:10. > :47:16.they will say anything to anybody if it is what they want them to hear.

:47:16. > :47:18.Their message to businesses, we will cut corporation tax, their message

:47:18. > :47:23.to the left-wingers, we will have Scandinavian style social services,

:47:23. > :47:30.but they do not talk about how they can marry together. How can you have

:47:30. > :47:34.both? People are waking up to the arguments, they understand the

:47:34. > :47:40.challenges and they are scrutinising the detail. They want more than a

:47:40. > :47:46.shared assertion from the SNP. you look at the polls that we have

:47:46. > :47:51.been discussing, do you think, this is in the bag? Not at all, we will

:47:51. > :47:55.work every day until the 18th of September next year. We will fight

:47:55. > :48:00.for every vote to make sure we stay strong within the UK. We will

:48:00. > :48:04.continue to do that. The legwork is for the yes campaign is to make if

:48:04. > :48:09.they want to see a yes vote next year, they know they have got a

:48:09. > :48:14.problem with young people and with women. We will hear a lot more

:48:14. > :48:23.retail politics, assertion, ideas thrown towards women and young

:48:23. > :48:25.people to tempt them over. Is this a term you recognise? I understand

:48:26. > :48:32.what she means, she was complaining earlier that this is what people

:48:32. > :48:35.were talking about. This is a debate about two things. It is in part

:48:35. > :48:41.about what independence would or would not ring to Scotland in terms

:48:41. > :48:45.of a better life people. But it also has to be said, it is about

:48:45. > :48:54.identity, how we feel and who we want to share our lives with. The

:48:54. > :48:57.inch reading thing that we have uncovered, ironically, this is not

:48:57. > :49:05.really a debate about Scottish nurse, so much as a debate about the

:49:05. > :49:13.edition is. The truth is, Scotland... Virtually everybody in

:49:13. > :49:20.Scotland feels strongly Scottish. Two thirds of people in Scotland,

:49:20. > :49:24.when asked to say how Scottish they feel, they were six or seven on the

:49:24. > :49:28.scale out of seven. What divides people is whether they acknowledge

:49:28. > :49:32.feeling British or not. Those who are reluctant to vote for

:49:32. > :49:39.independence are those who retain that sense of Britishness.

:49:39. > :49:42.Ironically, although the proposition on the ballot paper, should Scotland

:49:42. > :49:49.be an independent country, it looks for many voters the proposition they

:49:49. > :49:53.are addressing is, should Scotland remain in the UK?

:49:53. > :49:59.We should talk about the smaller parties standing in Aberdeen

:49:59. > :50:07.Donside. We should talk about the UK Independence Party, they have been

:50:07. > :50:13.hoping for a breakthrough in the campaign. We can cross now to Lord

:50:13. > :50:20.Monckton, who is at the count in Aberdeen. Thank you very much for

:50:20. > :50:26.joining us, Lord Monckton. Your leader, Nigel Farage, campaigned in

:50:26. > :50:30.Donside. He made another couple of visits to Scotland during the

:50:30. > :50:34.campaign, he promised a breakthrough, do you think you have

:50:35. > :50:40.made it? We have made a breakthrough. I think it is clear

:50:40. > :50:46.now that we are going to keep our deposit. You may think 5% of the

:50:46. > :50:50.vote, how is that a breakthrough but for a party that has never before

:50:50. > :50:55.fielded a candidate in this way to come close to keeping his deposit in

:50:55. > :51:00.a national election rather than a European one, this is a significant

:51:00. > :51:04.breakthrough. No doubt about it, we are here in Scotland, we are here to

:51:05. > :51:11.stay and we are building from here. It is not quite a revolution, though

:51:11. > :51:16.is it? No. Most revolutions are slow. UKIP has been around for 20

:51:16. > :51:22.years. It took 20 years for UKIP to achieve the real breakthrough south

:51:22. > :51:27.of the border, we hope it will take a little less for that breakthrough

:51:27. > :51:32.north of the border but this is the first significant step.

:51:32. > :51:36.During the campaign, the most prominent political moment in the

:51:37. > :51:41.campaign did not happen in Aberdeen but in Edinburgh. Your leader was

:51:41. > :51:46.mobbed at a pub where he was holding a press conference. In fact he had

:51:46. > :51:53.to be barricaded inside the pub for his own safety and security. He was

:51:53. > :52:02.then led away by the police. They used a riot van to get him out of

:52:02. > :52:07.there. He accused the pro tersers of being anti-English. -- protesters of

:52:07. > :52:13.being anti-English. Do you think that helped him to pick up votes or

:52:13. > :52:17.might he have done better if he had handled things differently?

:52:17. > :52:24.protesters said get back to England, we don't want your sort here. Get

:52:24. > :52:32.back to England. They don't want the English in Scotland. If that is not

:52:32. > :52:37.anti-English, xenophobic, , what is it? There is an element in the SNP

:52:37. > :52:43.that does take that nasty line. We have come across it on the

:52:43. > :52:50.doorsteps. The people who have not made us welcome have been the

:52:50. > :52:55.hardliners in the SNP. They have become a very anticrowd.

:52:55. > :53:02.I think it was a group called Radical Independence that led that

:53:02. > :53:06.campaign. Although they believe in independence...

:53:06. > :53:10.INAUDIBLE I would accept it was a faction of

:53:10. > :53:14.the SNP or it has overlaps of the SNP.

:53:14. > :53:21.You are asserting that, I don't think there is evidence for it, do

:53:21. > :53:24.you have evidence of it? Yes. They are connected with an outfit called

:53:24. > :53:29.the Antifascist Alliance. That puts pictures of some of its people on

:53:29. > :53:36.the website. Some of those are definitely SNP members at well.

:53:36. > :53:42.They say that they were campaigning against racism, actually it is UK

:53:42. > :53:47.independence -- it is the UK Independence Party, the policies,

:53:47. > :53:53.certainly you have had to discipline and remove some of the members from

:53:53. > :53:59.the party for expressing certain views? Let be clear. We are not a

:53:59. > :54:04.racist party it is a very funny way to accuse another party of being

:54:04. > :54:08.racist, when you shout racist slogans at it. It was not we who got

:54:08. > :54:14.arrested by the police as a result of that incident but they. Let's

:54:14. > :54:17.remember who was badly behaved here it was not us. Merely we wish to

:54:17. > :54:26.leave the European Union, that does not mean that we are anti-European.

:54:26. > :54:29.On the contrary, we are the most pro-European. We realise that the

:54:29. > :54:35.antidemocratic structure of the European Union represents for the

:54:35. > :54:41.whole of Europe. I spent years studying the civilisation of Ancient

:54:41. > :54:45.Greece and Rome... I would not get into that now, let's ask another

:54:45. > :54:49.question... We are not anti-European, we are not

:54:49. > :54:54.anti-English. I would like to ask you where you

:54:54. > :54:59.stand on the Scottish dlsh British identity question. Where do you

:54:59. > :55:03.stand on that? Do you identify as a Scottish party in Scotland? Well,

:55:03. > :55:08.all of us who are Scottish are proud to be Scottish. One of the great

:55:08. > :55:13.glories of the Scottish nation is that we remain proud of our

:55:13. > :55:16.nationhood while, at the same time, being at ease with Europe, though

:55:16. > :55:20.increasingly ill at ease with the European Union. So I think that

:55:21. > :55:26.there is a Scottish identity but also a British identity, that we

:55:26. > :55:31.have come across strongly among all parties on the street. Many, even in

:55:31. > :55:36.the SNP, who do not want jut right independence. The SNP has been

:55:36. > :55:41.unable to recent weeks to answer questions about how to pay for not

:55:41. > :55:47.just defence but welfare which applies very much in this questions

:55:47. > :55:52.and also health services. After the Barnet formula... Hang on a minute.

:55:52. > :55:57.Health service is being paid for... OK. Thank you very much.

:55:57. > :56:00.At the moment there is no doubt that the numbers do not add up. The

:56:00. > :56:08.numbers have not been done. Thank you very much. The UK

:56:08. > :56:16.Independence Party member, Lord Monckton live. He said that the SNP

:56:16. > :56:21.was the Scottish nasty party, but Sir Malcolm Bruce described the SNP

:56:21. > :56:26.as being nasty earlier, would you like to respond? I would not dignify

:56:27. > :56:35.them with any responses, but there is a way to point out that clearly

:56:35. > :56:39.members of UKIP and unfortunately Malcolm Bruce have taken negative

:56:39. > :56:46.commentary about others putting forward a legitimate position.

:56:47. > :56:53.But you are the -- but you failed when asked, to condemn the language

:56:53. > :56:56.used in that demonstration, it was not the only way in which the pro

:56:56. > :57:01.testers against Nigel Farage expressed themselves but they did

:57:01. > :57:06.suggest where he might like to place the Union flag and your leader

:57:06. > :57:10.failed to condemn that? He said hefrn a right to protest. Peaceful

:57:10. > :57:15.protest is a reasonable thing in our society. We accept that people have

:57:15. > :57:19.a right to say to may members of UKIP that we don't agree with the

:57:19. > :57:25.policies, we don't support nor want them here that is acceptable in

:57:25. > :57:30.terms of the policies of UKIP. I would agree with the protesters in

:57:30. > :57:35.that sense, but many were not members of the SNP a number were

:57:35. > :57:41.English people. The idea that there was some SNP anti-English protest is

:57:41. > :57:46.ridiculous it is a slur on the SNP, I absolutely reject it.

:57:46. > :57:51.If UKIP held their deposit, would you accept, David, that it is a

:57:51. > :57:56.borough for them in Scottish terms and is it worrying for you given

:57:56. > :58:01.that they steal votes from you in England? I don't think it is a

:58:01. > :58:06.borough. UKIP's pitch is a pitch, a plague on

:58:06. > :58:10.all your houses. It is a protest vote it is no doubt about that, by

:58:10. > :58:15.people unhappy with the EU, unhappy about immigration. I don't think it

:58:15. > :58:20.is from people who look at a person who they thought that they would

:58:20. > :58:24.elect as their MSP tonight it is a message. We all have to listen to

:58:24. > :58:27.that. We can't ignore the fact that the voters in Scotland, just as

:58:27. > :58:32.elsewhere in the United Kingdom are concerned about immigration I

:58:32. > :58:38.issues. For example, politicians have to be able to speak about the

:58:38. > :58:43.issues, to put them forward in a coherent and reasonable proposals so

:58:43. > :58:46.that UKIP don't get a groundswell on the basis that the issues are not

:58:46. > :58:50.talked about, but I don't see them making significant headway in

:58:50. > :58:59.Scotland. We have a Nistlerooy party in Scotland.

:58:59. > :59:04.-- we have a nationalist party in Scotland that is what UKIP.

:59:04. > :59:10.Mike Crockhart, are you worried that UKIP could finish ahead in the

:59:10. > :59:15.by-election? I don't think so. If they can save their deposit, they

:59:15. > :59:20.can be happy with that, but there is no great support for UKIP's policies

:59:20. > :59:24.in Scotland. Of that I am sure. We used to benefit from being the party

:59:24. > :59:29.of protest. That Mantell has been taken away from us. We have been in

:59:29. > :59:36.Government in Westminster. We can no longer be the party that people turn

:59:36. > :59:41.to when they want to, as David has said, to be a plague on the rest of

:59:41. > :59:46.your houses. They are turning to UKIP for that but it is not an

:59:46. > :59:52.endorsement of the policies of UKIP. How do you assess Nigel Farage and

:59:52. > :59:56.the UKIP party? I think that people are mostly protesting at the Lib

:59:56. > :00:00.Demes now, rather than giving their votes for that reason. I don't agree

:00:00. > :00:06.for what UKIP stand for but I respect their right to say it. I

:00:06. > :00:10.wish that those who protested that day had put their energy into the

:00:11. > :00:14.arguments rather than shouting them down in the streets it was not

:00:14. > :00:20.edifying for the country, but what excited me most about the package

:00:20. > :00:27.was the arrival of Willie Young into the Aberdeen count there. So good

:00:27. > :00:31.news. Firstly, I am hearing good news from Glenrothes. We are seeing

:00:31. > :00:39.a significant swing to Labour in Aberdeen now as well. If it is

:00:39. > :00:47.right, if what I am hearing is right, it is a 6 or 7% swing. Enough

:00:47. > :00:50.to take out cask cask cask, and -- Kenny McAfghanistanily and Nicola

:00:50. > :00:57.Sturgeon and that is why you are seeing the smiles on Labour faces.

:00:57. > :01:06.Thank you very much. We can go back to Aberdeen, to Steve Godden at the

:01:06. > :01:12.count with an update. Steven. The lull I spoke about is over.

:01:12. > :01:17.People over there by the door lining up waiting for the arrival of Mark

:01:17. > :01:22.McDonald, the SNP candidate. Willie Young arrived, the Labour candidate,

:01:22. > :01:27.to huge applause. A sense that we are building to a kind of climax.

:01:27. > :01:34.There is is a picture starting to emerge. All of the usual caveats

:01:34. > :01:37.apply, but a picture of ral the SNP win winning -- really the SNP

:01:37. > :01:40.winning the majority and Labour coming second and the Liberal

:01:41. > :01:46.Democrats coming third. The feeling from the Liberal Democrats side of

:01:46. > :01:54.thing is that they have picked up support in areas where they have

:01:54. > :01:59.traditionally done well but were deserted in 2011. I am talking about

:01:59. > :02:05.Dyce and Bridge of Don. So there is the perception that work has paid

:02:05. > :02:12.off. The figures in terms of the share of the vote that are about 40%

:02:12. > :02:17.for the SNP, about 30% for Labour and 8% or 9% for the Liberal

:02:17. > :02:22.Democrats with the Conservatives in fourth. So things are starting to

:02:22. > :02:28.emerge. Still no firm news on when the declaration will be made. Some

:02:28. > :02:35.saying about 1. 30am. Others saying 2.00am. The voice of experience,

:02:35. > :02:41.people saying probably nearer to 2.00am than 1. 30am. So we will

:02:41. > :02:45.await the SNP's arrival here, so things starting to pick up here now.

:02:45. > :02:49.And a quick word with Professor John Curtice on the provisional numbers

:02:50. > :02:54.that Steven shared with us. There is a comparison nobody

:02:54. > :02:58.mentioned. It is what happened in the constituency in the 2012 local

:02:58. > :03:04.elections, we cannot say exactly what happened as the boundaries

:03:04. > :03:09.don't much. On my calculations, the SNP got about 38% of the vote in the

:03:09. > :03:15.questions in 2012. It sounds as though that this will be the same

:03:15. > :03:19.again. Labour getting about 30%. So, yes, the gap between the parties is

:03:19. > :03:25.closer. That, should say is the arrival of

:03:25. > :03:29.Mark McDonald, the SNP candidate. Perhaps the next MSP for Aberdeen

:03:29. > :03:34.Donside. So the gap will be closer but this

:03:34. > :03:40.does not suggest that the SNP have gotten less popular now than they

:03:40. > :03:45.were over 12 months ago, but we have to recognise that they do not retain

:03:45. > :03:49.the high popularity that they had in 2011. We should not be surprised

:03:49. > :03:53.that the Liberal Democrats came third. So again in truth, this is

:03:53. > :03:57.going to maintain where they managed to be over 12 months ago, that is

:03:57. > :04:02.what they should achieve. Now, I think that is visually, it

:04:02. > :04:07.looks like a declaration of victory from Mark McDonald, even though we

:04:07. > :04:11.don't have the formal results. He has his fists clenched for the

:04:11. > :04:15.photographers. We have to say something about UKIP

:04:15. > :04:20.it is a question of whether or not the glass is half full or half

:04:20. > :04:25.empty. 5% of the vote would have been regarded as a remarkable

:04:25. > :04:30.performance. They got 1% on the list vote in 2011.

:04:30. > :04:38.Have they held a deposit in a first-past-the-post test in

:04:38. > :04:42.Scotland? Not to my memory. But y what to bare in find is short

:04:43. > :04:47.of the 20% vote that they got in Rotherham, in Middlesbrough, in

:04:47. > :04:51.south shields or the average 25% of the vote that they were getting in

:04:52. > :04:56.the English elections. This confirms that message that Scotland is not

:04:57. > :05:02.immune to the rise of UKIP that's been going on but that like London,

:05:02. > :05:09.UKIP are finding that Scotland is a much more difficult territory, not

:05:09. > :05:14.least as in Scotland if you do feel strong strongly about what you are

:05:14. > :05:20.concerned about, the feeling that you are being governed unnecessarily

:05:20. > :05:27.by London, whereas in England the issue is about being governed too

:05:27. > :05:37.much by Brussels and the immigration of immigration is an essential one

:05:37. > :05:37.

:05:37. > :05:43.for UKIP. Lots of holding going on, perhaps

:05:43. > :05:49.they know more than 32, although everybody is expecting that the SNP

:05:49. > :05:56.will be victorious in Aberdeen Donside tonight. The question is, to

:05:56. > :06:01.what extent do they win, do what extent to the finish with a lead

:06:01. > :06:06.over Labour, and to what extent does the Labour Party eat into the

:06:06. > :06:11.league? If it is true that the Westminster coalition parties

:06:11. > :06:16.flip-flopped their positions and the Liberal Democrats finish ahead of

:06:16. > :06:24.the Conservatives, how do you view that? It was only in 2011 that Ross

:06:24. > :06:31.Thomson manage to beat the Liberal Democrats. The Liberal Democrats

:06:31. > :06:41.were third in 2007, 2003 and 1999. But they had a much higher share of

:06:41. > :06:46.the vote, 17.1% in 1999, 15.4 in 2007. It is the 2011 Scottish

:06:47. > :06:52.Parliament, the general election result, that was the anomaly.

:06:52. > :06:57.Re-establishing their position as being third in the constituency. It

:06:58. > :07:07.would be remarkable if UKIP had not gained something of a bounce, cause

:07:08. > :07:08.

:07:08. > :07:13.of their successes relatively in England, but 5% will not win too

:07:13. > :07:22.many pies and peas. The candidates are in place at the camp, which

:07:22. > :07:25.might mean that things are getting closer. What can you tell us?

:07:25. > :07:32.getting there. All of the candidates are here. The last to arrive, Mark

:07:32. > :07:38.McDonald. Use all the shots of him coming into the hall at the Beacon

:07:38. > :07:43.Centre, he had his fists clenched, a triumphant entrance to the hall. The

:07:44. > :07:47.feeling is he has done enough to win this, but the majority will be

:07:47. > :07:57.reduced, that is the consensus. We are still waiting for the

:07:57. > :08:01.declaration. We will find out what has happened. Willie Young came in

:08:01. > :08:06.ten minutes before Mark McDonald, there was a big cheer for his

:08:06. > :08:13.arrival, so they are all in the hall, still a fair bit of activity

:08:14. > :08:19.going on, waiting for the declaration, but as I said, there is

:08:19. > :08:26.a picture starting to emerge of the SNP winning this seat with a reduced

:08:26. > :08:31.majority, the Labour Party share around 30%, compared to the SNP's

:08:31. > :08:37.40%, and the Liberal Democrats in third place with nine or 10%. The

:08:38. > :08:42.Conservatives in fourth place. All of the usual caveats apply, but that

:08:42. > :08:46.is the chatter here in the Beacon Centre, so we are waiting for the

:08:47. > :08:52.declaration, as we have been waiting all night. How is your trip down

:08:52. > :08:57.memory lane going? It is going fairly well. I have been here

:08:57. > :09:05.before, I played football outside, so this is a new experience, the

:09:05. > :09:10.hall. I have spoken about some horror stories about the roundabout,

:09:10. > :09:14.learning to drive there, and one of the schools that is involved in the

:09:14. > :09:24.controversy about mergers, they were our bitter rivals at primary

:09:24. > :09:26.

:09:26. > :09:31.school, so it has been ingesting -- ingesting, speaking to people where

:09:31. > :09:37.I grew up, seeing some familiar faces, but it does not matter why I

:09:37. > :09:44.am here, it is why these people are here, and the declaration. We will

:09:44. > :09:50.be their life when it happens. Talking of memory lane, it is that

:09:50. > :09:54.time, it is 1:15am, and I promised that if we had not had a

:09:55. > :10:00.declaration, we would take a trip down memory lane and dip into the

:10:00. > :10:06.by-election archive. In 1982, Glasgow Hillhead was fiercely fought

:10:06. > :10:14.by all parties. The SDP worthy winners, with Roy Jenkins taking

:10:14. > :10:24.what had been a safe Tory seat. He is a look at how Vincent Hanna saw

:10:24. > :10:40.

:10:40. > :10:49.Cheering election time, Lascaux Corporation thence disused buildings

:10:49. > :10:53.to political parties at �5 a week. The SDP grabbed the day centre. And

:10:53. > :11:03.they stocked it with many of the ladies who do social democratic

:11:03. > :11:15.

:11:15. > :11:22.afternoon. He arrived with the flourish that befitted the tradition

:11:22. > :11:25.of English politicians who have carpet in Scotland. Did not his

:11:25. > :11:31.mentor Herbert Asquith find a seat in Scotland? He became Prime

:11:32. > :11:41.Minister. Herbert Asquith was never reduced to campaigning outside the

:11:41. > :11:46.Partick bingo hall. 43. It is not the sort of thing that he is good

:11:46. > :11:56.at. Especially when there are not many voters around. Good afternoon,

:11:56. > :12:09.

:12:09. > :12:19.Roy Jenkins. How are you? Do you do you live? Clydebank. Quite a long

:12:19. > :12:25.way? Not too bad.Outside the constituency. Only one person he

:12:25. > :12:32.spoke to actually lived in Hillhead, and he was voting Labour. Good

:12:32. > :12:40.afternoon, Roy Jenkins, where do you live? Hillhead.Outside the

:12:40. > :12:48.constituency? He was finally forced to talk to the press for a while,

:12:48. > :12:55.before wandering off to his committee rooms. Gerry Malone is 31,

:12:55. > :12:59.a local solicitor who has been engaging and hard-working. As a

:12:59. > :13:03.loyal defender of government policy, it was his bad luck that the

:13:03. > :13:07.announcement of the Trident project last week provoked an alarmed

:13:07. > :13:16.reaction even from Hillhead Tories, who live only 25 miles from the

:13:16. > :13:22.base. He has paraded around with visiting politicians, like Ted

:13:22. > :13:31.Heath, who always manages to conceal his distaste for the party

:13:31. > :13:37.leadership. He is a Roman Catholic, anti-abortion and pro-hunting. He

:13:37. > :13:43.was carefully -- he has carefully concealed any disagreements on party

:13:43. > :13:50.policy. There now follows a party political cliche. There has been

:13:50. > :13:53.speculation about whether he is wet. The Labour Party is the only party

:13:53. > :14:00.that has the alternative to the disastrous economic policy of the

:14:00. > :14:06.government. David Wiseman has been described as a Marxist, which he

:14:06. > :14:15.does not deny. Helen Liddell, the Scottish party secretary, acted as a

:14:15. > :14:21.nanny to ensure that her candidate kept to his or her script.

:14:21. > :14:26.Everywhere he went, he was accompanied by political figures.

:14:26. > :14:33.This MP even gave him the rosette with which at Warrington he gained

:14:33. > :14:37.the lowest Labour vote since the war. Hillhead is usually on fertile

:14:37. > :14:40.ground for Scottish Nationalists, but the polls have shown that by

:14:40. > :14:46.dint of energy and personality, its cancer to James Heavey had made

:14:46. > :14:49.tonight be a crucial factor in determining who wins or loses. In

:14:49. > :14:53.the last few days, the polls have been dancing wildly about,

:14:53. > :14:57.predicting a victory for conservatives, labour and SDP, and

:14:57. > :15:01.the nerves of the party workers have been more than a little frayed,

:15:01. > :15:11.which is why at the weekend no gimmick was left untried, no stop

:15:11. > :15:12.

:15:12. > :15:16.left and pulled. Hillhead went completely crazy. Early morning

:15:16. > :15:19.found us shivering in a car park at the top of Crow Road, with 60

:15:19. > :15:26.excited Conservatives, doing strange things with their cars. Unused

:15:26. > :15:34.onlookers hinted darkly of ancient Celtic rights and the party

:15:34. > :15:38.organisers explained that it was a media event. They were trying to

:15:38. > :15:43.spell their candidate's name in cars. Nobody seemed to know why. It

:15:43. > :15:53.took an awfully long time. Meanwhile, the Labour campaign was

:15:53. > :15:58.

:15:58. > :16:04.similar -- formidable political machine, and the effort on Saturday

:16:04. > :16:07.was immense. The tactics of keeping Mr Wiseman smiling and waving but

:16:07. > :16:13.not saying a lot was having an effect on the polls. The

:16:13. > :16:17.Conservatives had sent for a hoist, so that a handful of people other

:16:17. > :16:25.than passing pilots could inspect their handiwork. We looked down and

:16:25. > :16:30.waved. They looked up and waved back. Where do you live? Roy Jenkins

:16:30. > :16:34.was canvassing of the Dumbarton Road. The press had been complaining

:16:34. > :16:40.for days that they had not been able to watch him doing it, but when it

:16:41. > :16:47.came, it was worth waiting for. is difficult being separated. How

:16:47. > :16:55.are you? With great courtesy, he gave the voters the benefit of his

:16:55. > :16:59.advice. Roy Jenkins is moving along. But he was accompanied by Bill

:16:59. > :17:04.Rogers, doing his loudspeaker act, and who positioned himself as to

:17:05. > :17:10.make it unlikely that anybody could hear a word that Roy Jenkins said.

:17:10. > :17:15.The whole of the campaign was filled to the last day with loudspeakers,

:17:15. > :17:25.music and cavalcades of canvases, harassing an electorate who were

:17:25. > :17:47.

:17:47. > :17:57.traditionally very cynical about all # Some folks work for Labour.

:17:57. > :18:02.

:18:02. > :18:09.# Some follow the Tory cloth. # In Westminster I will be.

:18:09. > :18:15.# I'll leave behind my brains and mind.

:18:15. > :18:22.# And try for an MBE. Campaigning has changed a bit since

:18:23. > :18:29.then! You would be hard pushed to find haggis for 18p a pound! As

:18:29. > :18:37.Vincent Hanna said, no gimmick left untried. That is still a feature of

:18:37. > :18:41.by-elections. To remind you, this is a special from Newsnight Scotland,

:18:41. > :18:47.for the Aberdeen Donside by-election. The SNP seeming

:18:47. > :18:52.confident about their prospects of retaining the seat, with Mark

:18:52. > :18:57.McDonald, just to the right of the screen, hoping to be elected as the

:18:57. > :19:05.new MSP for Aberdeen Donside. Sometime between now and 2am, we

:19:05. > :19:09.hope, we think, we will keep you across developments. Let's continue

:19:09. > :19:18.the trip down memory lane. You have confessed already, Brian, that you

:19:18. > :19:25.were there. I was the young face in the background. Gerry Malone later

:19:25. > :19:29.became an MP for Aberdeen South. I caught a glimpse in that car park

:19:29. > :19:33.stunt of a very active conservative but later and even more active

:19:33. > :19:43.nationalist, he left the Tories over the steel industry. It looked like

:19:43. > :19:48.him. I recall Roy Jenkins then, he was offered a glass of wine in the

:19:48. > :19:55.elegant constituency rooms, and he said, a courageous vintage! I

:19:55. > :19:59.thought that was very Roy Jenkins! Vincent Hanna, I did a piece at a

:19:59. > :20:09.party conference, there was a search to get some jokes into Tony Blair's

:20:09. > :20:09.

:20:09. > :20:17.speech, and I asked Vincent Hanna, and Neil Callan -- Neil Kinnock had

:20:17. > :20:26.talked about winning the last time, and it went, knock knock, Neal who?

:20:26. > :20:34.That is politics! The Labour Party does not field Marxists!

:20:35. > :20:40.knowingly! It was Helen Liddell, she is now in the House of Lords. I was

:20:40. > :20:50.six years old in 1982, what about you? I was born in 1981.Just a

:20:50. > :20:51.

:20:51. > :21:00.baby! What about you? I was 19. Do you remember it? Yes, I was a lowly

:21:00. > :21:04.party worker, but not for the SNP. I was a member of the Labour Party. I

:21:04. > :21:12.was a supporter of the Labour Party, I helped out, and I subsequently saw

:21:12. > :21:17.the light. I joined the SNP left and ten years later. I left the Labour

:21:17. > :21:25.Party in the late 80s and join the SNP in 1990. I had always been a

:21:25. > :21:30.supporter of devolution and devolution -- and independents. It

:21:30. > :21:35.was almost inevitable that you got your party card with your 16th

:21:35. > :21:43.birthday card, and that is what happened to me, but when I grew up a

:21:43. > :21:49.bit, I decided it was not the party I wanted to support. It is the idea

:21:49. > :21:53.of party workers, you heard it in the song, we have got to shout to

:21:53. > :21:58.the party activists, they have done the hard graft, many of them were up

:21:58. > :22:04.at the crack of dawn, they are watching the programme tonight, with

:22:04. > :22:11.a suntan and a weary feeling in their legs. A lot of ordinary people

:22:11. > :22:17.get up to play their part, and that is very healthy. David, what would

:22:17. > :22:23.you say the big changes and similarities are over the 30 year

:22:23. > :22:29.period in the way we do politics and how by-elections of Fort? There is a

:22:29. > :22:34.lot more targeting of voters in elections now. In a by-election like

:22:34. > :22:40.that, the parties knocked all the doors, whether people were likely to

:22:40. > :22:46.be supported -- supportive or not, but now, work is done behind the

:22:46. > :22:56.scenes. Today, you would see the parties focusing on knocking up

:22:56. > :22:57.

:22:57. > :23:03.their own supporters, pulling them out.

:23:03. > :23:08.I have done two council elections in Edinburgh, but going back to 1982. I

:23:08. > :23:13.was 16. I was not involved in politics. It was only at university

:23:13. > :23:20.later, tla went around all of the university clubs. To Labour, to

:23:20. > :23:25.liberal, to the SDP where, there were four of us and a dog. The SDP I

:23:25. > :23:29.felt most at home with it was an exciting time. Breaking the mould of

:23:29. > :23:34.British politics. We actually believed it would happen. It has

:23:34. > :23:38.taken longer to achieve but I think we are managing it now.

:23:38. > :23:43.Thank you very much. Lets cross to the count. Steve Godden is there.

:23:43. > :23:48.What is happening, Steven, are we getting a result sometime soon? It

:23:48. > :23:52.is starting to feel like we are moving towards a conclusion. The

:23:52. > :23:56.party agents, the election agents were called into the corner a couple

:23:56. > :24:01.of minutes ago for a final adjudication. So it feels like we

:24:01. > :24:05.are moving to a conclusion. In the middle of the room it is not

:24:05. > :24:08.scientific nor official but in the middle of the group of tables here,

:24:09. > :24:13.the votes are laid out. The votes for each candidate. On the

:24:13. > :24:17.right-handside are the votes for Mark McDonald there. Are six rows of

:24:17. > :24:22.vouts for Mark McDonald, the SNP candidate. Next are rows of votes

:24:22. > :24:26.for Willie Young, the Labour candidate. Four rows there. Next

:24:26. > :24:30.down, the Liberal Democrats candidate, Christine Jardine, one

:24:30. > :24:35.row there. Next to her the row of votes for the Conservative candidate

:24:35. > :24:40.and fifth are the votes for UKIP. So it is not official it is not

:24:40. > :24:43.confirmation, we are waiting for the declaration but it gives an

:24:43. > :24:48.indication and backs up the way that people have been speaking about how

:24:49. > :24:55.the contest is turning out. Thank you very much.

:24:55. > :25:00.I heard Brian Taylor say if that was the very fiction stage, five minutes

:25:00. > :25:05.do you think? I think so. It should be five minutes to then.

:25:06. > :25:10.That is what it normally is. So, let's have a look at the results

:25:10. > :25:15.from last time so we are aware of what we are comparing with. We will

:25:15. > :25:20.do that in a moment or two. Are you starting to get excited, Professor

:25:20. > :25:27.John Curtice? It could be a new fact for your book? Yes! If you asked me

:25:27. > :25:33.at the beginning, thank goodness you did not but if indeed what we heard

:25:33. > :25:39.earlier, it was something like 40% SNP, 30% Labour, that is what I

:25:39. > :25:43.would have put the money on it is confirmation of what we learned in

:25:43. > :25:47.the television 12 months ago, but it is exciting in the sense it is an

:25:48. > :25:52.indication that this remarkably popular SNP government a government

:25:52. > :25:56.that is popular for having been in power for six years, is, however,

:25:56. > :26:01.beginning to find the tied a little more difficult to withstand than

:26:01. > :26:06.perhaps was the case a few years ago. Certainly it is a reminder to

:26:06. > :26:12.us, in context of the whole independence debate, not to assume,

:26:12. > :26:16.even if the SNP remain pop lar, that they will do well in 2016, whether

:26:17. > :26:21.or not we are voting as an independent country or as part of

:26:21. > :26:26.the European Union to get an overall majority. A lot assumptions are

:26:26. > :26:31.about what would happen if we are an independent Scotland it depends on

:26:31. > :26:34.what the SNP do but it may be invalid. It may not be the SNP

:26:34. > :26:39.running in Scotland, even if we were to vote for it.

:26:40. > :26:45.I should say let's take a look at the results from the last time of

:26:45. > :26:55.the Scottish general election in 2011. There it is, the SNP holding

:26:55. > :26:56.

:26:56. > :27:03.the seat. Brian Adam, the return with 14,790 votes. The Labour

:27:03. > :27:13.candidate with 7,615. Ross Thomson, the candidate for them this time

:27:13. > :27:14.

:27:14. > :27:21.around, the Conservatives. He got 2,166. The Liberal Democrats, 1606

:27:21. > :27:24.and the others sharing 530 votes between them. There are many more

:27:24. > :27:31.candidates in the by-election than there were the last time. That could

:27:31. > :27:37.change a little. The majority for the SNP in 2011. The turn out on

:27:37. > :27:41.that occasion was 47.3%. That is the result the last time. That is what

:27:42. > :27:49.we are comparing against, I think that I am right to say? If the

:27:49. > :27:55.Labour Party have indeed got about 30%. They are in truth only up about

:27:55. > :27:59.1 to %, 2% than in 2011. Ir think we will be left the questions, whatever

:27:59. > :28:03.the difficulties are facing the SNP government, I think that the Labour

:28:03. > :28:07.Party are left with the question, at what point is the Scottish Labour

:28:08. > :28:12.Party to come up with a message that means it begins to reengage with the

:28:12. > :28:16.Scottish electorate as far as the Holyrood elections are concerned?

:28:16. > :28:21.There is still a large question mark about the ability of the Labour

:28:21. > :28:25.Party in Scotland to recover north of the border between now and 2016.

:28:25. > :28:29.What is the answer to the professor's question, Kezia Dugdale?

:28:29. > :28:34.That is fair commentary. We understand the challenge. We were

:28:34. > :28:37.outed in 2011. We understand what to do for 2016.

:28:37. > :28:40.But compare the position of the party in Scotland with the position

:28:40. > :28:46.of the party at Westminster two years after suffering a serious

:28:46. > :28:49.defeat in 2010. The Labour Party south of the border recovered

:28:49. > :28:53.quickly then, you don't show signs of recovering on anything like the

:28:53. > :29:00.same speed. We are working on transformational

:29:00. > :29:06.change as to how we do everything from HQ structures to the message on

:29:06. > :29:10.devolution to the policy going forward. 2016 is a long way. Joanne

:29:10. > :29:16.Lamont is beating Alex Salmond week in, week out. We need more than that

:29:16. > :29:20.to offer to the electorate, though, we are working on that. By 2016 we

:29:20. > :29:26.will have a positive, aggressive message to take to the electorate,

:29:26. > :29:29.to move the SNP out of office. And feen if you were able to turn

:29:29. > :29:33.around the polls and win independent, it may be up to Labour

:29:33. > :29:37.to decide what kind of country we become? Of course. The people of

:29:37. > :29:42.Scotland get to choose. That is the point about independence. They will

:29:42. > :29:46.get the Government that they want in 2016. That government will be, I

:29:46. > :29:50.hope it will be an SNP one but it is up to the people to decide. That is

:29:50. > :29:56.important a point. Some people mix up the things about effectively,

:29:56. > :29:59.they don't like this SNP policy, or this SNP individual, therefore they

:29:59. > :30:02.are against independence. Independence is not about the SNP

:30:02. > :30:06.but about the people of Scotland getting to choose their future. This

:30:07. > :30:10.is a different question as to whether or not the SNP wins the 2016

:30:10. > :30:14.election. In that light, is the Labour Party

:30:14. > :30:19.giving thought to what the policies positions would be if Scotland did

:30:19. > :30:23.become an independent country? don't see our politics from a

:30:23. > :30:27.starting point around the constitution that is why Joanne

:30:27. > :30:33.Lamont talks about a purpose. The values that we have as a country,

:30:33. > :30:37.how we want to see them delivered. She started had an honest debate

:30:37. > :30:42.about what to expect from Government, local government,

:30:42. > :30:46.national government. We are having an honest debate. We will have an

:30:47. > :30:52.offer on devolution and a policy platform ready for the moments that

:30:52. > :30:56.we need them. So an independence manifesto up your

:30:56. > :31:00.sleeve in case? What you would do with awful the powers that come with

:31:00. > :31:04.independence? We would have a platform that talks about devolution

:31:04. > :31:08.in the broadest sense. That is about what powers we give the local

:31:08. > :31:13.government, what powers in the Scottish Parliament, what we do with

:31:13. > :31:16.the powers and what we use power for should Scotland be independent.

:31:16. > :31:21.includes the question as to whether or not if you were in a position it

:31:21. > :31:28.run the Scottish government after 2016, it could be left in your hands

:31:28. > :31:34.to deal with the issue of getting an independent into NATO and what stand

:31:34. > :31:38.you take on Trident and the situation at Faslane if you find

:31:38. > :31:42.yourself back in power. That is what the parties have to address with an

:31:42. > :31:45.independent Scotland. At some point the Labour Party will have to tell

:31:45. > :31:51.us as to whether or not it could be more accommodating to a UK

:31:51. > :31:56.government on that issue, than so far we have been led by the SNP that

:31:56. > :32:02.they would be if they were in power in Scotland. There is a duty for all

:32:02. > :32:05.parties to spell out clear what the platforms are. What is your

:32:05. > :32:09.position, the Labour Party's position on nuclear weapons? I don't

:32:09. > :32:17.want to see nuclear weapons on Scottish soil. Is that Joanne

:32:18. > :32:22.Lamont's position? You have to ask Joanne Lamont her view. I am asking

:32:22. > :32:27.you, you are oppose opposed to nuclear weapons in Scotland, to

:32:27. > :32:34.Trident? I want to ensure that this is no longer a tool that the

:32:34. > :32:38.governments can levy with. I am interested, Jim Murphy is keen

:32:38. > :32:45.on nuclear weapons, keen on replacing Trident, the leader in

:32:45. > :32:51.London is keen on replacing Trident. It is fascinating put forward by an

:32:51. > :32:55.SNP politician who has a broad spectrum on other policies. You are

:32:55. > :32:59.right-wing and left-wing policies. That is very much to our credit too,

:32:59. > :33:04.I think. But to be clear, as the issue has

:33:04. > :33:07.been raised it is your position that the nuclear weapons that are on

:33:07. > :33:13.Scottish territory at the moment, that the Trident programme should be

:33:13. > :33:18.removed? It is my view I don't want to see nuclear weapons anywhere in

:33:18. > :33:23.the world. I think that the Scots have a share shared vision.

:33:23. > :33:26.Do you support the renewal of the Trident programme? No. It is a waste

:33:26. > :33:32.of money. Money that could be better spent.

:33:32. > :33:36.Thank you very much. David Mundell we have not heard from you. We

:33:36. > :33:41.obviously know that the UK Government intends to renew Trident,

:33:41. > :33:45.that is your stated position, but I am not clear, despite the fact...

:33:45. > :33:52.Sorry, the Conservative spoigs to renew Trident. The Government

:33:52. > :33:58.position is to hold a review and to make that decision in 2016.

:33:58. > :34:02.Correct. The Conservative position is to renew. David Cameron visited a

:34:02. > :34:05.nuclear submarine and stated that about what was not clear was whether

:34:06. > :34:13.that would be sustainable if Scotland became an independent

:34:13. > :34:17.country? Well the position as Mike points out for the Conservatives is

:34:17. > :34:23.that we would renew Trident. That position is to retain the United

:34:23. > :34:31.Kingdom. If Scotland became an independent country, might that

:34:31. > :34:35.bounce the UK in to abandoning the plan to renew Trident? As I said

:34:35. > :34:41.earlier, all sorts of things will be uncertain if Scotland becomes

:34:41. > :34:46.independent. But the UK, would it be the position

:34:46. > :34:50.of the Conservative Party it renew Trident, fully renew Trident if

:34:50. > :34:53.Scotland became independent? The UK Government, indeed the Conservative

:34:54. > :35:00.Party, are proceeding on the basis of Scotland remaining in the United

:35:00. > :35:06.Kingdom. That is the answer.

:35:06. > :35:13.The Defence Secretary conceded that contingency plans are being made?

:35:13. > :35:19.don't they he conceded that significant contingency.

:35:19. > :35:22.Insignificant? There are not significant contingency plans for

:35:22. > :35:25.Scotland becoming independent. We believe that Scotland will be a

:35:25. > :35:30.party of the United Kingdom, that our policies are based on Scotland

:35:30. > :35:33.becoming a part of the United Kingdom. That it is a part of the

:35:33. > :35:39.United Kingdom, sorry! It is getting very late.

:35:39. > :35:44.It is. Our policy position is predicated on

:35:44. > :35:48.Scotland remaining a part of the United Kingdom. Obviously it is

:35:48. > :35:57.self-evident if Scotland votes to leave the United Kingdom, a whole

:35:57. > :36:00.range of issues will be reassessed. And David does not want to base an

:36:00. > :36:04.argument on the existence of independence, but it is not credible

:36:04. > :36:08.to say within the Ministry of Defence that they are not preparing

:36:08. > :36:14.for the possibility of independence. They are soldiers, of course they

:36:14. > :36:18.are preparing for it. It strikes me if it comes to this, if the opinion

:36:18. > :36:24.polls currently suggest otherwise but if it comes to it, if there is

:36:24. > :36:28.independents, then Trident would be the timetable for it, the timetable

:36:28. > :36:36.for the removal of it would be a bargaining counter for whoever is

:36:36. > :36:43.the head of the Scottish government. The bargain counter would anybody

:36:43. > :36:46.there for a membership with European and NATO. Seeking support in return

:36:46. > :36:49.for being reasonable about the timetable for the withdrawal of

:36:49. > :36:59.Trident. Mike Crockhart where are you

:36:59. > :37:01.

:37:01. > :37:08.personally on the Trident issue? position has been multilateral. The

:37:08. > :37:13.maintenance of a minium deterrent. It is not a minimum deterrent. We

:37:13. > :37:20.have managed to get the coalition government to carry out a review.

:37:20. > :37:25.When do we get the results? Very soon. I have no idea what it says,

:37:25. > :37:34.but I hope it identifies something which is cheaper than Trident, which

:37:34. > :37:39.is a massive waste of money. should get rid of Trident and vote

:37:39. > :37:43.yes in 2014, then we would be assured of it. The first Minister

:37:43. > :37:51.has not said what the timetable would be. Some people say it might

:37:51. > :37:59.take a decade. Can you put a time on it? No, it is part of a negotiation

:37:59. > :38:04.settlement. It will be as thick and safe as it is possible to be. That

:38:04. > :38:09.is the sensible approach, we would have to make sure it has got

:38:09. > :38:17.somewhere safe to go. We understand these are dangerous weapons, and it

:38:17. > :38:25.has to be done properly, so we can negotiated in a mature way.

:38:25. > :38:32.become part of a nuclear reliance. All other countries in NATO sign up

:38:32. > :38:36.to the use of nuclear weapons. An independent Scotland would take away

:38:36. > :38:42.Trident but signup to a nuclear alliance, which all of the other

:38:43. > :38:49.member states subscribe to the use of nuclear weapons. On that point,

:38:49. > :38:55.all the other countries signup to NATO's rules, which include the

:38:55. > :39:02.possibility of a first strike nuclear attack. Would an independent

:39:02. > :39:05.Scotland, led by the SNP, signup to that? It is conditional, our

:39:05. > :39:15.membership of NATO would be conditional on the basis we would

:39:15. > :39:17.

:39:17. > :39:21.not support nuclear weapons, we would not be part of... You cannot

:39:21. > :39:27.go into NATO on a conditional basis! Other countries do that. They

:39:27. > :39:37.do not have nuclear weapons and they do not allow them to come into the

:39:37. > :39:41.air or those waters. We would be in the same position. Being in the same

:39:41. > :39:47.position as other members is to sign up to NATO's rules, which include

:39:47. > :39:52.the possibility... You can aspire for nuclear disarmament, but you

:39:52. > :39:58.have to agree that NATO reserves the right under half of all of its

:39:58. > :40:07.members to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike. NATO is a club of

:40:07. > :40:15.members. That is one of its rules. We would have a voice. It does not

:40:15. > :40:20.operate as an independent body. would have to join on the basis of

:40:20. > :40:28.the other members, you cannot come into a club and say, we are going to

:40:28. > :40:32.have our own special rules. Will you in the event of independents accept

:40:32. > :40:38.the existing terms of NATO membership that all other members

:40:38. > :40:44.are signed up to? We do not support nuclear weapons. You want special

:40:44. > :40:52.conditions of membership? Or the men -- or the terms accepted by other

:40:52. > :40:57.members? Do you accept the existing rules or do you want special

:40:57. > :41:07.arrangements? Neither. There are countries in NATO who do not allow

:41:07. > :41:12.

:41:12. > :41:16.NATO nuclear weapons. Do you accept first strike? We do not. Shared

:41:16. > :41:23.defence is a normal, sensible mechanism for all of the European

:41:23. > :41:28.countries in NATO. We will have time later to discuss that and other

:41:28. > :41:36.topics in more detail, unless Stephen has exciting news for us.

:41:36. > :41:40.What is the latest? It looks like it is imminent. In the corner of the

:41:41. > :41:45.whole, the candidates and their agents have been called into one

:41:45. > :41:51.final Hoddle, so I do not think we are far away. I have been sensing a

:41:51. > :42:00.new emotion, of impatience, people 's attention is split between three

:42:00. > :42:03.things, the stage, the ballot papers and the clock on the wall, which

:42:03. > :42:08.reads 149 AM. I am hoping it will not be too much longer before you

:42:08. > :42:18.can come back to us for a declaration. I think the clock might

:42:18. > :42:23.be running fast in Aberdeen! I have got 1:48am. A little bit faster.

:42:23. > :42:33.Aberdeen is forward-looking! I am made and the boy, but on this

:42:33. > :42:34.

:42:34. > :42:40.occasion, when you are covering that point where we need to cheer

:42:40. > :42:50.ourselves up with another electoral fact from John Curtice. And his big

:42:50. > :43:00.book of facts. Your second favourite fact! This book has a wonderful

:43:00. > :43:02.

:43:02. > :43:08.section on all sorts of trivia. For example... It is all in your head!

:43:08. > :43:12.David Mundell and his colleagues have been worrying about

:43:12. > :43:17.constituency redistribution, and they were desperate to ensure that

:43:17. > :43:20.they had equality of electorates, to improve their chances of winning in

:43:20. > :43:24.2015, but some of his colleagues scuppered House of Lords reform,

:43:24. > :43:34.which gave Mike Crocker the opportunity to scupper the boundary

:43:34. > :43:39.review. A minor piece of comfort to David, things are not quite as bad

:43:39. > :43:46.as they have been in the past, because in 1935, in Rommel third in

:43:46. > :43:53.Essex, 167,000 voters on the register. There is nowhere in

:43:53. > :43:57.England that will be doing that, the Isle of Wight is the worst. Things

:43:57. > :44:04.are not gerrymandered as badly as that. But it will be an important

:44:04. > :44:12.issue in 2015. The Tories might not win because of the boundary issue.

:44:12. > :44:18.As you can see, as John Curtice shared his electoral fact with us,

:44:18. > :44:22.the electoral officer in Aberdeen is preparing to share the result. Let's

:44:22. > :44:32.go live for the Aberdeen Donside declaration. The candidates are

:44:32. > :44:55.

:44:55. > :45:03.positioning themselves. Let's hear Good evening, everyone. Thank you

:45:03. > :45:06.for your forbearance and patients. I, constituency returning officer,

:45:06. > :45:13.declared the results of the verification process for the

:45:13. > :45:23.Aberdeen Donside Scottish Parliament constituency. The total electorate

:45:23. > :45:33.was 60,200 and 42. The total votes cast were 23,396. That means the

:45:33. > :45:37.

:45:37. > :45:42.turnout was 38.8%. I hereby give notice that the total number of

:45:42. > :45:52.votes polled for each candidate at the election was as follows. Otto

:45:52. > :45:53.

:45:53. > :46:03.Ingles, UK Independence Party, 1128. Christine Jardine, Scottish Liberal

:46:03. > :46:04.

:46:04. > :46:11.Democrats, 1940. David Donald, Scottish National front, 249. Mark

:46:11. > :46:21.McDonald, Scottish National Party, 9814. Tom Morrow, Scottish Christian

:46:21. > :46:22.

:46:22. > :46:32.party, 222. Rhonda rekey, Scottish Green party, 410. Ross Thomson,

:46:32. > :46:33.

:46:33. > :46:39.Scottish Conservatives and Unionists, 1791. James Shoal and,

:46:39. > :46:49.Scottish Democratic Alliance, 35. Willie Young, Scottish Labour

:46:49. > :47:04.

:47:04. > :47:09.The total valid votes were 23,378. The total number of rejected votes

:47:09. > :47:14.was 18 and the reason for rejection was as follows. Lack of official

:47:14. > :47:19.mark or unique identifying mark, zero. Voting for more than one

:47:19. > :47:25.candidate, four. Writing a mark by which the voter could be identified,

:47:25. > :47:33.one. One mark or void for uncertainty, 13. That brings the

:47:33. > :47:38.total to 18 rejected votes. I hereby declare that the following candidate

:47:38. > :47:42.is duly elected to serve as a member of the Scottish parliament for the

:47:42. > :47:52.Aberdeen Donside constituency. That is Mark McDonald, Scottish National

:47:52. > :48:24.

:48:24. > :48:27.and your team, for all of your work to ensure that this by-election ran

:48:27. > :48:32.smoothly? I thank all of the staff at the polling stations and those

:48:32. > :48:36.who have been here tonight. Often, you feel like this is us going

:48:36. > :48:41.through the motions, but genuinely, this would not be possible without

:48:41. > :48:46.your efforts, and we thank you. I speak for all of the candidates when

:48:46. > :48:52.I say so. I thank the police for ensuring an orderly by-election took

:48:52. > :48:57.place. I thank my fellow candidates for a robust by-election campaign. I

:48:57. > :49:06.wish to give special thanks to my campaign team, led by my agent,

:49:06. > :49:11.Kevin Stewart. The many activists who came through to support me in

:49:11. > :49:17.this campaign, and I wish to thank my family, my mother, my wife and my

:49:17. > :49:22.children, who both should be in their beds, but for all of the

:49:22. > :49:28.support they gave me in keeping me sane, or as sane as you can be in a

:49:28. > :49:33.by-election campaign. It shows the people of Aberdeen Donside back the

:49:33. > :49:35.delivery of universal benefits, free personal care and free

:49:35. > :49:45.prescriptions. They back the council tax freeze and reject the Labour

:49:45. > :49:49.

:49:49. > :49:59.cuts commission. They back the local schools being kept open and say to

:49:59. > :49:59.

:49:59. > :50:03.Labour, hand off, Middleton Park and Branbrae. They back a sensible

:50:03. > :50:11.approach to improving Aberdeen's transport infrastructure and reject

:50:11. > :50:15.Labour's plans to eject people in Middlefield. I want to thank the

:50:15. > :50:20.people of Aberdeen Donside for putting their faith in me. I know

:50:20. > :50:23.that turn out is low, that serves as a lesson to all, that we as

:50:23. > :50:28.politicians and political parties have much to do to inspire people

:50:28. > :50:33.and take stock of that and look at what we can do to ensure that people

:50:33. > :50:39.come out to vote at election times. I have a tough act to follow. I

:50:39. > :50:45.pledge to work hard and earn trust in the way that Brian Adam did. I

:50:45. > :50:52.stood in 2004, I received 51 votes. So I think that this is probably

:50:52. > :50:57.progress. I cannot help but think of Brian at this time. In 1988, Brian

:50:57. > :51:02.Adam was the only SNP councillor in the city of Aberdeen, today we have

:51:02. > :51:07.15. In 2003 he became the first constituency member of Parliament in

:51:07. > :51:12.Aberdeen, against the national swing. Brian was a pine year for the

:51:13. > :51:22.Scottish National Party, a year for the movement. He is deeply missed by

:51:22. > :51:30.all, but I know he would be proud of us today.

:51:30. > :51:36.Brian was not just a friend and colleague but a machinor... The new

:51:36. > :51:42.MSP, Mark McDonald, paying tribute to Brian Adam. His death caused the

:51:42. > :51:49.by-election. SNP holding Aberdeen Donside. Mark McDonald with 9,814

:51:50. > :51:55.votes. Labour's Willie Young in second place with 7,789. Christine

:51:55. > :52:01.Jardine for the Liberal Democrats, moving to third place for her party,

:52:01. > :52:09.1,940. Pushing Ross Thomson, the Conservative candidate, in to fourth

:52:09. > :52:12.place with 1,791 votes and the other parties between them, sharing 2,044,

:52:12. > :52:17.but Professor John Curtice which confirm that UKIP's performance was

:52:17. > :52:21.not enough to hold their deposit as they predicted earlier in the

:52:22. > :52:25.programme. So the SNP holding Aberdeen Donside, the majority over

:52:25. > :52:33.2,000. There is the share of the 2,000. There is the share of the

:52:33. > :52:39.vote. 42% for the SNP, 33.3% for Labour. 8.3 for the Liberal

:52:39. > :52:42.Democrats, 7. 7% for the Conservatives, and 8. 7% tor the

:52:42. > :52:49.others. -- for the others.

:52:49. > :52:55.Now let's have a look at the change. The SNP down 13%. Labour up 5%. The

:52:55. > :52:58.Lib Demes up 2%. No change for the Lib Demes up 2%. No change for the

:52:58. > :53:07.Tories, the others gaining 7%. So in this by-election there has

:53:07. > :53:14.been a swing to Labour from the SNP of 9.1 t 2%.

:53:14. > :53:20.Now let's get reaction to the result. Firstly from Labour's's

:53:20. > :53:24.Kezia Dugdale. There was -- fistly from Labour's Kezia Dugdale, there

:53:24. > :53:30.were about 2,000 votes in it but not close enough.

:53:30. > :53:37.That is a big headway forward. A 9.1% swing from SNP to Labour.

:53:37. > :53:42.Enough to take out many. 0.4%, you would have had Nicola Sturgeon.

:53:42. > :53:47.There was talk of a fight become. You have that in the result. It is a

:53:47. > :53:53.long way to go until 2016 but a great start.

:53:53. > :53:59.A start that has you worried? am delighted for Mark McDonald. He

:53:59. > :54:04.did a great job. I am delighted for him. My thoughts are with Brian

:54:04. > :54:09.Adam's family. We didn't want to be here today, but I am delighted for

:54:09. > :54:12.Mark McDonald. This is six years into an SNP government. We have held

:54:12. > :54:20.the seat comfortably. Professor John Curtice was talking about the

:54:20. > :54:29.comparison with the 2012 results, our vote was 42%. 39% five years

:54:29. > :54:35.ago. Labour was 43% then, p is 33% today. Clearly no way forward for

:54:35. > :54:42.Labour. Theres have been swings before, and Labour has said is a

:54:42. > :54:50.disastrous result but a 9% swing failing to make a impression is

:54:50. > :54:56.disastrous for Labour. They have made no gains ahall. -- at all here.

:54:56. > :55:00.And it was said that this was the endorsement for the principle of

:55:01. > :55:06.universalism and a rejection of benefits, a rejection of Labour's

:55:06. > :55:10.cuts commission? If that is what Mark McDonald wants to read into the

:55:10. > :55:14.result. It suits the SNP's wider political message.

:55:14. > :55:20.You can't get away from the fact that voters in Aberdeen Donside

:55:20. > :55:26.endorsed the SNP. If it was not a vote for universalism, against the

:55:26. > :55:31.cuts, what was it? It was a 9% swing to Labour. That is not endorsement

:55:32. > :55:38.of the SNP government at all. But the SNP have been elected.

:55:38. > :55:45.But we never expected to win. It was a 7,000 majority. The SNP going into

:55:45. > :55:49.it with 55% share election share of the vote that is huge. We can't

:55:49. > :55:54.expect to overturn it. We had a go at it. We have to present a

:55:54. > :56:00.platform. I spoke to Willie Young the oter

:56:00. > :56:05.day, he said he was going to win. Let's bring in Mike Crockhart. Some

:56:05. > :56:13.improvement, pushing the Tories into fourth place but no real sign of a

:56:13. > :56:18.recovery in the Lib Dem fortunes? This was the usual two-party squeeze

:56:18. > :56:22.in a by-election it is difficult to make headway against that.

:56:22. > :56:27.Especially with the resources thrown into it by the two parties. So a

:56:27. > :56:33.move forward is welcomed. We were out on the doorsteps. It was far

:56:33. > :56:37.better than it has been in the last two years. We were there enthusing

:56:37. > :56:44.supporters, signing up members, speaking to people on the doorstep

:56:45. > :56:49.in that local area. This is a step forward. I con congreat -- I

:56:49. > :56:54.congratulate Christine Jardine. And from you, David, you, pushed

:56:54. > :57:00.down the rankings into fourth, is that support leaking to UKIP, who

:57:00. > :57:04.did relatively well? Our vote stayed the same. I think that Ross Thomson

:57:04. > :57:08.did a good job. I am positive. I think that people like Ross Thomson

:57:08. > :57:13.are the future of the Conservative Party. As Mike says when people

:57:13. > :57:17.perceive there is a two-horse race, they opt for one of those parties,

:57:17. > :57:20.but I think that holding our vote, fighting a positive campaign, I

:57:20. > :57:24.think that is a positive message to take forward from this by-election.

:57:24. > :57:31.Thank you very much. We will get more analysis from Brian

:57:31. > :57:36.and John in a moment, but now let's cross to Aberdeen, to Donside, to

:57:36. > :57:40.the new MSM for Aberdeen Donside. Firstly, congratulations to you,

:57:40. > :57:46.Mark McDonald. Were there times when you started to bite your nails a

:57:46. > :57:51.little? It was closer than some are predicting? Well the important thing

:57:51. > :57:56.was that we were focussed on holding the seat. We have healed the seat.

:57:56. > :57:59.We are satisfied we have won the by-election. Now we build ogen

:57:59. > :58:04.legacy of Brian Adam and work hard for the communities of Aberdeen

:58:05. > :58:10.Donside that is what I have pledged to do as the new MSP.

:58:10. > :58:16.Obviously you have won it is an endorsement but Labour have a claim

:58:16. > :58:20.to be making progress, eating at the? SNP's majority. As Kezia

:58:20. > :58:25.Dugdale pointed out, swings like this would take out some of your

:58:25. > :58:31.Cabinet ministers in a general election? Well, by-elections, glen,

:58:31. > :58:35.as you know, they are notoriously difficult issues on which to predict

:58:35. > :58:40.wider swings. We have seen that in many by-elections in the past.

:58:40. > :58:44.Swings that happen and by-elections don't necessarily follow through to

:58:44. > :58:49.a general election. There is a strong focus on a constituency for a

:58:49. > :58:54.long period of time. What what we saw here were the opposition parties

:58:54. > :58:59.throwing everything including the kitchen sink at the campaign. I am

:58:59. > :59:07.delighted to have held the seat. Now it is my job to build on the trust

:59:07. > :59:12.that has been put in me and to help build the party for the future. That

:59:12. > :59:17.is what Brian Adam has done. Labour described you as a "yes" man

:59:17. > :59:22.for Alex Salmond. Is there anything to say to him now that involves the

:59:22. > :59:27.word "no"? Well, Labour have called me all sorts of things during the

:59:27. > :59:32.campaign. They called me a boy trying to do a man's job. They have

:59:32. > :59:39.called me a "yes" man, saying I have not had a proper job in my life.

:59:39. > :59:45.They want to engage in name kaling -- name calling, that is fine by me,

:59:46. > :59:51.but the idea that somehow you must be disloyal in order to ab abgood

:59:51. > :59:56.questions MP, I mean Brian Adam was the Chief Whip of the party.

:59:56. > :00:01.Responsible that the party members voted the right way. He was a strong

:00:01. > :00:05.voice for Aberdeen Donside. He knew how to fight their corner. I learned

:00:05. > :00:08.from Brian Adam. I don't need lessons from the Labour Party in

:00:08. > :00:11.representing the questions. I learned from Brian Adam, that is

:00:11. > :00:18.what I will be putting into practise.

:00:18. > :00:28.Things have moved quickly for you in your political life. Elected to a

:00:28. > :00:32.young councillor. Do you wish you may have had a -- aanother life

:00:32. > :00:38.before becoming a politician? happy with what I have done. I have

:00:38. > :00:42.been a long-time representing my communities. I grew up in the area,

:00:42. > :00:47.I represented that, I feel there is no greater honour in politics than

:00:47. > :00:51.to represent the area that you live in. That is what I will be doing now

:00:51. > :00:55.for Aberdeen Donside. What do you say to people that

:00:55. > :01:00.actually we need more politicians, more in Parliament who have actually

:01:00. > :01:05.had a career in some other areas of life, who have done another job, who

:01:05. > :01:09.can bring that experience into Parliament? I think that life

:01:09. > :01:13.experiences are about more than what you do for a job. That is why they

:01:13. > :01:18.call it life experience, not work experience. I am raising a disabled

:01:18. > :01:24.child. I have many experiences from that, that will allow me to

:01:24. > :01:29.empathise with people, relate to them and work hard on issues for

:01:29. > :01:33.instance my campaign on autism. Working with people with autism,

:01:33. > :01:42.ensuring that they get the support that we want to see.

:01:42. > :01:48.These are ish us that concern you, about in terms of delivering for

:01:48. > :01:53.Donside Donsiden -- Aberdeen Donside, what are you going to do?

:01:53. > :02:00.am going to have a meeting about the bonkers proposals to close the local

:02:00. > :02:04.schools. There have been no words back on that parents have been left

:02:04. > :02:13.with months of anxiety. It is time to call that to a halt. That is one

:02:13. > :02:17.of the first things that I will do. Mark McDonald, the MSP for SNP, once

:02:17. > :02:22.again, congratulations on your win. Thank you very much.

:02:22. > :02:26.Let's speak to Brian Taylor and Professor John Curtice, you have

:02:26. > :02:34.been chewing over the numbers, anything you spotted that we have

:02:34. > :02:41.not discussed? Clearly the people should be congreat lated on the

:02:41. > :02:47.victory. Now the shares. The share, the decline of the share for the

:02:47. > :02:53.Labour Party, comparing it with the declines in 2009 it is on the high

:02:53. > :02:56.side. One could argue it is because of this vote. On the other hand Mark

:02:56. > :03:02.McDonald is not a new kid on the block. He has been representing the

:03:02. > :03:07.area for a while. So he was a strong candidate, but saying this in the

:03:07. > :03:12.sense to remind us, how the ballot in 2014 is a different contest from

:03:12. > :03:17.a Scottish Parliament election, if you put together the votes cast for

:03:17. > :03:24.candidates who were in favour of independence, if I have all of the

:03:24. > :03:28.candidates right, it is 44%. There is a clear reminder that yes the SNP

:03:28. > :03:33.can win elections, getting a majority in Parliament on less than

:03:33. > :03:37.50% of the vote, but they cannot win a referendum without 50% of the

:03:37. > :03:44.vote. There is no evidence of that in the by-election. Even if you read

:03:44. > :03:46.it in a more fasile way, that there is evidence of the "yes" side being

:03:46. > :03:50.able to win in this particular part of Scotland.

:03:50. > :03:56.You were asking Mark McDonald about what he has done, one thing he has

:03:56. > :04:01.done is that he was a stand-up comedian. Most of the other

:04:01. > :04:07.politicians are just unintentional gifted amateurs, he does it for

:04:07. > :04:15.real. On this occasion, you would say, looking at the results that

:04:15. > :04:24.Joey Harper's boy has won over Alec McLeish's lad, but learning on the

:04:24. > :04:30.night and perhaps making progress. Labour are allowed to the -- to

:04:30. > :04:35.point to the swing of 9%, but the drop is quite substantial. The point

:04:35. > :04:43.that Kezia Dugdale is making about translating this into general

:04:43. > :04:47.elections in other questions, is, as I am sure she knows, that the swing

:04:47. > :04:50.does not translate into a general election situation, this is is a

:04:50. > :04:54.by-election situation. The Liberal Democrats, having held off the

:04:55. > :05:00.difficult situation that they are facing across the UK, reverting to

:05:00. > :05:07.third place over the Conservatives, the Conservatives are slightly down.

:05:07. > :05:11.It is down about 0.4% on a previous vote, but perhaps the Tories will

:05:11. > :05:18.take comfort from having held off the challenge of UKIP.

:05:18. > :05:24.And to confirm UKIP did not hold their deposit? That 478% of the

:05:24. > :05:29.votes. So they failed. Having managed to do so badly in

:05:29. > :05:34.2011, it was difficult for the vote to go down, but to put it into

:05:34. > :05:38.perspective, the vote of 8% is half the level that it was in 2007 in

:05:38. > :05:42.this questions. There is still a long way to go, Mike, before you

:05:42. > :05:50.have crawled back up to the respectable position in Scottish

:05:50. > :05:53.politics. Of course, we now have -- are in the position where we are

:05:53. > :05:58.waiting for the revival of the Conservative Party in Scotland. It

:05:58. > :06:03.is long awaited, but it is still show nothing evidence of returning

:06:03. > :06:07.there. That is another miserable result for the Conservative Party in

:06:08. > :06:13.Scotland. Faced with that question, how to get yourselves back into the

:06:13. > :06:23.serious game north of the border. Let's catch a question with Steve

:06:23. > :06:29.Godden. Who is with you. You said that you could win this, you have

:06:29. > :06:35.not, what they did difference? put up a positive campaign, we are

:06:35. > :06:38.disappointed, but the vote has gone up substantially, which is good, the

:06:38. > :06:45.SNP vote has gone down substantially, so we are getting

:06:45. > :06:47.closer, which is positive. What are you taking from this? Great

:06:48. > :06:53.satisfaction, because we have increased our share of the vote

:06:53. > :06:58.substantially. How much of this was about your record at council level

:06:58. > :07:03.and some of the decisions that have been unpopular? We have fought a

:07:03. > :07:09.positive campaign, we spoke about issues that were for the people of

:07:09. > :07:14.Aberdeen Donside, the SM people had no control over those issues, such

:07:14. > :07:20.as school closures and council tax, because that is in the gift of the

:07:20. > :07:24.local authority. We have spoken about getting fairer funding for the

:07:24. > :07:29.city, some think we need to progress. What about independence

:07:29. > :07:38.and the referendum? How did that play for you? A lot of people

:07:39. > :07:42.speaking to us about it. Mark McDonald said not so long ago that

:07:42. > :07:50.if the vote was to be taken yesterday, the people of Aberdeen

:07:50. > :07:53.Donside would reject independence. People said to us they did not want

:07:53. > :07:59.independence. People who voted SNP still do not wanted. But we will

:07:59. > :08:04.look at that next year. You said it was a strong issue for you. Why

:08:04. > :08:12.could you not make more of it? You allowed the SNP to fight this

:08:12. > :08:14.election on their terms. Both sides fought what they thought was

:08:14. > :08:19.important. We fought on issues that the Scottish parliament can

:08:19. > :08:27.determine its position on, infrastructure. We spoke about

:08:27. > :08:31.fairer funding. The SNP fought a negative campaign based on local

:08:32. > :08:37.issues, things they have got no locus on. We are positive, happy, I

:08:37. > :08:44.am delighted with the way things have happened, I thought a positive

:08:44. > :08:49.campaign. That is it from Aberdeen tonight, just to sum up, the SNP

:08:49. > :08:56.have won the seat with a reduced majority from the last time, 2000

:08:56. > :08:59.down, from 7000. The Labour Party in second place, Liberal Democrats in

:08:59. > :09:05.third place, they are speaking positively, and the Conservatives in

:09:05. > :09:09.fourth place. It has been a long night, impatience towards the end,

:09:09. > :09:18.but we now know where we stand, and the arguments will continue. From

:09:18. > :09:27.Aberdeen, it is good night. Thank you, Stephen. A final word

:09:27. > :09:34.from all on our panel in Glasgow. Final thoughts, Mike? The one thing

:09:34. > :09:41.I would like to pick up on, John Curtice talked about 44% support, if

:09:41. > :09:47.you aggregate the candidates, supporting independence. It is an

:09:47. > :09:54.important point, because that is the support of the candidates, not

:09:54. > :09:56.support for independence. A lot of people voted for parties and

:09:56. > :10:04.candidates supporting independence, but they do not support it

:10:04. > :10:07.themselves. Having got this out of the way, we can get the SNP talking

:10:07. > :10:13.about independence again, because the more we get that, the less

:10:13. > :10:17.support there is for it, so I look forward to that. A good night for

:10:17. > :10:23.the Labour Party, three by-elections in Scotland today, 5% up in

:10:23. > :10:28.Aberdeen, we won in Glenrothes, the local government, and one in

:10:28. > :10:36.Edinburgh, and we will have a Labour gain in Edinburgh. A good couple of

:10:36. > :10:39.days. It is a poor night for the Labour Party. Six years into an SNP

:10:39. > :10:46.government, you hear the other parties say, governments never win

:10:46. > :10:49.by-elections in mid-term, but we have proven that is not the case. We

:10:49. > :10:59.surveyed 19,000 people on the independence question in Aberdeen

:10:59. > :11:01.

:11:01. > :11:04.Donside, 34% yes, 29% no, 37% don't know. It was clear that there is

:11:04. > :11:11.support for independence, over 19,000 people. I take heart from

:11:11. > :11:16.that. We can convince the rest of people. I do not think this will

:11:16. > :11:21.have any effect on the outcome of the referendum. It is clear that

:11:21. > :11:25.people are prepared to vote SNP in Scottish Parliament elections and

:11:25. > :11:31.council elections when they do not support independence. We saw in the

:11:31. > :11:35.debate we had earlier in the hall in Aberdeen, this election was fought

:11:36. > :11:39.on local issues in that constituency. From an outside point

:11:39. > :11:45.of view, photos were deciding in a negative way who was more culpable

:11:45. > :11:52.for issues around the roundabout, so to speak, whether it was Labour or

:11:52. > :11:59.the SNP, and they have decided it was the Labour council. We have gone

:11:59. > :12:08.full circle! Back to the roundabout again! Thank you for staying with

:12:08. > :12:14.us. Last words from John Curtice. There is a reminder to political

:12:14. > :12:20.parties, even if the SNP are currently majoring on what they

:12:20. > :12:27.think is an unpopular policy stance, independence, they can still

:12:27. > :12:32.do well in elections. We should not discount the possibility that

:12:32. > :12:35.Scotland might folk know in 2014, but we should not presume that the

:12:36. > :12:42.SNP will lose the position of being the largest hearty in the Scottish

:12:42. > :12:48.Parliament in 2016. These issues are divorced to some degree, and we are

:12:48. > :12:52.looking at a party that has embedded itself as Scotland's party, and

:12:53. > :13:01.dislodging it will not be that easy, even if it does end up losing the

:13:01. > :13:07.referendum. I take three things from the night. I agree, I do not think

:13:07. > :13:09.there is a lead through from this to September 2014, of course this was a

:13:09. > :13:19.by-election for the Scottish Parliamentary constituency which was

:13:19. > :13:21.

:13:21. > :13:25.fought on local issues. They are important. Secondly, it tells us

:13:25. > :13:30.that the two parties who will be fighting most obviously to be in

:13:30. > :13:35.command of the Scottish Parliament when those elections come round our

:13:35. > :13:41.labour and the SNP, they still be predominant parties. But the biggest

:13:41. > :13:48.thing it tells us, thank you to those viewers who stuck with us! A

:13:48. > :13:58.collective round of applause! Devotion above and beyond! And Mark

:13:58. > :14:07.McDonald is the winner. The only thing that disappoints me, you had

:14:07. > :14:14.promised to sing if it got to that stage! If it got to 3am! It would

:14:14. > :14:18.have to be the Northern lights! is for a future programme! Thank you

:14:18. > :14:25.to you for staying up until this late hour to watch our coverage of

:14:25. > :14:30.the Aberdeen Donside by-election. It has been the SNP's night. Mark

:14:30. > :14:37.McDonald elected as the MSP, holding the constituency for the SNP. The

:14:37. > :14:39.Labour Party making up some ground, but not quite enough. Alex Salmond