0:00:05 > 0:00:07
0:00:07 > 0:00:15guarantee contentment. An Newsnight Scotland tonight: If you live in
0:00:15 > 0:00:18Glasgow, you are 30% more likely to die prematurely. But still no easy
0:00:18 > 0:00:23explanation as to why Glasgow's excess mortality exceeds can parable
0:00:23 > 0:00:27places like Liverpool. Also tonight, a look back at the
0:00:27 > 0:00:32career of Lord Fraser, the Tory politician who had few enemies, even
0:00:32 > 0:00:36in Scotland. The so-called Glasgow affect is back
0:00:36 > 0:00:41in the news. In short, you will die earlier if you are Glaswegian and
0:00:41 > 0:00:48nobody knows why. Research is at the Centre for population health are
0:00:48 > 0:00:53trying to filter out, -- filter out identifiable differences between it
0:00:53 > 0:00:57Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester. But the research seems to find more
0:00:57 > 0:01:00mysteries than answers. There is no doubt Glasgow has
0:01:00 > 0:01:05experienced the same history with most of the same problems on the
0:01:05 > 0:01:10same benefits over the past 100 years as many other major European
0:01:10 > 0:01:16industrial cities. Nor is there any doubt that your life expectancy as a
0:01:16 > 0:01:19modern Sweden is worse than that of comparator citizens elsewhere. The
0:01:19 > 0:01:25scientists and statisticians that study these things would add that
0:01:25 > 0:01:30the Glasgow affect is a fairly recent phenomenon. This graph shows
0:01:30 > 0:01:35life expectancy for Scotland was not bad at all compared with 20 other
0:01:35 > 0:01:40European countries compared to 1950. I1980, Scotland was bottom, and
0:01:40 > 0:01:44since then it has got worse, with younger men living in Glasgow
0:01:44 > 0:01:49carrying the largest part of the statistical word in. But it is not
0:01:49 > 0:01:54just younger men. In Glasgow, 13% more people die prematurely than
0:01:54 > 0:01:59their equivalents in Liverpool or Manchester and if you look at those
0:01:59 > 0:02:05who die under 65, the Glasgow figure is 30% worse than the comparison.
0:02:05 > 0:02:10The causes of death are identified. Alcohol and drugs, violence and road
0:02:10 > 0:02:15accidents and suicide. Heart disease and cancers contribute, but there be
0:02:15 > 0:02:19still no explanation of why they happen more in Glasgow. The research
0:02:19 > 0:02:23confirms that poverty is clearly associated with ill health but the
0:02:23 > 0:02:27statisticians can level at that factor and they still find that you
0:02:27 > 0:02:31die earlier in Glasgow. Your gender does not matter and the effect is
0:02:31 > 0:02:36still evident whether you are from a deprived or non-deprived
0:02:36 > 0:02:40neighbourhood. So what questions are they asking. Specifically in their
0:02:40 > 0:02:45survey, the researchers tried to establish if Glasgow has less sense
0:02:45 > 0:02:48of coherence or social capital and other cities, or do sectarianism or
0:02:48 > 0:02:58recent political history play a part? Two people have a different
0:02:58 > 0:02:59
0:02:59 > 0:03:04set of values or is it that earlier years experience is worse? So what
0:03:04 > 0:03:09are the answer is? More of that in a moment. Once again it has proved
0:03:09 > 0:03:13extremely difficult to pin down specific differences. The idea of a
0:03:13 > 0:03:18sense of coherence, the extent to which people understand and control
0:03:18 > 0:03:21their own lives and have a sense of meaning, had looked promising, but
0:03:21 > 0:03:25the survey concludes that Glaswegians actually do better on
0:03:25 > 0:03:31the school than their counterparts in the North of England, so that is
0:03:31 > 0:03:37not an explanation of the Glasgow affect either.
0:03:37 > 0:03:43I am joined now by David Walsh, lead author of the new report. Welcome to
0:03:43 > 0:03:48the programme. Despite the extensive survey there is no data to back up
0:03:48 > 0:03:53the theories, as we have been hearing, why Glasgow is different.
0:03:54 > 0:03:57Are you confident the data you have gathered is correct? Yes. It is
0:03:57 > 0:04:02important to clarify what was said in the report, that the big driver
0:04:02 > 0:04:05of poor health in any society, Glasgow included, is poverty and
0:04:05 > 0:04:08deprivation. There seems to be something else going on here.
0:04:08 > 0:04:13Because of that it has allowed a number of theories to be put
0:04:13 > 0:04:17forward. It has allowed a lot of people to put forward a lot of pet
0:04:17 > 0:04:20theories even though there is no data to refute or support them. We
0:04:20 > 0:04:25did a bit of work trying to assess what the most plausible theories
0:04:25 > 0:04:30could be and then we had to try to collect some data for those
0:04:30 > 0:04:34theories. So we have undertaken a sample of the three cities, a
0:04:34 > 0:04:37reasonably representative sample where we are happy with those data.
0:04:37 > 0:04:44But there are always questions about whether it is all sections of
0:04:44 > 0:04:53society. You mentioned pet theories some people have. What are the
0:04:53 > 0:04:56theories out there? Which ones do you subscribe to and also dismiss?
0:04:56 > 0:05:00All sorts of theories have been proposed. This is part of the
0:05:00 > 0:05:03difficulty that so many people have come forward with different
0:05:03 > 0:05:08theories. We have tried to look at this in some sort of scientific and
0:05:08 > 0:05:14logical fashion. In this study we collected data for seven different
0:05:14 > 0:05:18theories. To be clear, the answer will not be one thing. It will be a
0:05:18 > 0:05:23complex interaction of allsorts of different things that interact in a
0:05:23 > 0:05:26way that would be difficult to tease out, but as a first step it is
0:05:26 > 0:05:31important to say, is there any evidence at all for these particular
0:05:31 > 0:05:37theories showing differences between the cities? Some mentioned in the
0:05:37 > 0:05:40report are ones we collected data for, including things like people in
0:05:40 > 0:05:47Glasgow possibly being less optimistic for the future, and that
0:05:47 > 0:05:51would therefore impact on their health and behaviour. Glasgow,
0:05:51 > 0:05:57Liverpool and Manchester are such socio-economically different grunt
0:05:57 > 0:06:02cities that it would be surprising if that was the case. There was no
0:06:02 > 0:06:05evidence of that, that levels of optimism were different in Glasgow
0:06:05 > 0:06:14to Liverpool and Manchester. mentioned in the report the
0:06:14 > 0:06:24philosophical concept of our money, Anderson is or alienation. --
0:06:24 > 0:06:26
0:06:26 > 0:06:28anomie, Boundless nurse or alienation. These are not our
0:06:28 > 0:06:34hypotheses, people have written them and we are putting them to the test
0:06:34 > 0:06:40trying to find the data. In times of economic or social change it is
0:06:40 > 0:06:45thought there is a breakdown or absence of social norms. It is a
0:06:45 > 0:06:51tricky concept to get your head around but it was proposed related
0:06:51 > 0:06:54to alienation, a section of the population being alienated. The
0:06:54 > 0:07:01survey does not support the hypothesis, but whether a survey
0:07:01 > 0:07:05like this could reach the sections of society you would need to reach
0:07:05 > 0:07:10is open to question. At the end of the report, you have a discussion
0:07:10 > 0:07:13topic looking at how you are going to take this in the future. What
0:07:13 > 0:07:20further investigations might you have and which strands will you go
0:07:20 > 0:07:24down? This survey has collected new data for some hypotheses. We have
0:07:24 > 0:07:30other projects looking at other work. We have a whole programme of
0:07:30 > 0:07:33research looking at this. Data have been collected and interrogated and
0:07:33 > 0:07:37what is going to be important as more evidence and reports come
0:07:37 > 0:07:41through is that we sit down and try to synthesise what all the results
0:07:41 > 0:07:46are and what they actually mean and see how far are learning has
0:07:46 > 0:07:51advanced. So we hope to do that later in the year and next year,
0:07:51 > 0:07:54when the other projects have run their course. And it is a fairly
0:07:54 > 0:08:02shocking statistic, and I'm sure many Glaswegians will be pretty
0:08:02 > 0:08:07shocked to learn that and learned that it is true. Yes. I have stopped
0:08:07 > 0:08:12using the term the Glasgow affect. It has been used and abused a little
0:08:12 > 0:08:18bit and it insights a lot of people in terms of this mystery at the
0:08:18 > 0:08:24bottom line is it is not an exciting thing, it is about white thousands
0:08:24 > 0:08:27of people literally died before their time in Glasgow. It is
0:08:27 > 0:08:32affecting individuals and families and community so it is vital we get
0:08:32 > 0:08:37to the bottom of it. Thank you. There have been many tributes to
0:08:37 > 0:08:40Lord Fraser, the former Conservative Lord Advocate. It was announced at
0:08:40 > 0:08:47the weekend he had died suddenly. His involvement in key episodes of
0:08:47 > 0:08:57Scottish life, the Holyrood Parliament and Lockerbie stand out.
0:08:57 > 0:09:06
0:09:06 > 0:09:11Our reporter has been looking at his life. Peter Fraser was one of those
0:09:11 > 0:09:15politicians who crossed the party divide. He entered the political
0:09:15 > 0:09:25stage in 1979 as a conservative in the then Angus but lost his seat
0:09:25 > 0:09:26
0:09:26 > 0:09:29eight years later. He became a life peer. His appointment as a Lord
0:09:29 > 0:09:33Advocate propelled him to the international stage. As Scotland's
0:09:33 > 0:09:43top prosecutor he was in charge of bringing the perpetrators of the
0:09:43 > 0:09:49
0:09:49 > 0:09:57Lockerbie warming to justice. -- Lockerbie bombing.
0:09:57 > 0:10:02One was acquitted at trial, the other was convicted in 2001 of
0:10:02 > 0:10:10smuggling and explosive on board the flight.
0:10:10 > 0:10:20Years later Lord Fraser IDE is with the decision to release him on
0:10:20 > 0:10:23
0:10:23 > 0:10:33compassionate grounds. -- agreed with the decision.
0:10:33 > 0:10:36
0:10:36 > 0:10:43The idea that the President of the United States and the head of the
0:10:43 > 0:10:51FBI should be combine to be anti-Scottish at the moment seems to
0:10:51 > 0:11:01me to be disastrous. More controversial still was the Wellcome
0:11:01 > 0:11:04
0:11:04 > 0:11:07that the convicted bomber received upon his return to Libya. It was all
0:11:07 > 0:11:16organised. The justice secretary has to take some responsibility for not
0:11:16 > 0:11:26checking that up. Away from the legal scene Lord Fraser was a
0:11:26 > 0:11:28
0:11:28 > 0:11:38leading figure in the fight against devolution.
0:11:38 > 0:11:48He was a member of a group of conservatives arguing for a
0:11:48 > 0:11:52
0:11:52 > 0:12:02self-governing Assembly, but in the devolution campaign he argued for a
0:12:02 > 0:12:05
0:12:05 > 0:12:12no foot. -- vote. Despite Lord Fraser's best effort
0:12:12 > 0:12:14devolution was enacted in 1999. But the early years of the Parliament
0:12:14 > 0:12:21were symbolised by the construction of the new Holyrood building which
0:12:21 > 0:12:31was beset by delays and cost overruns. Lord Fraser was appointed
0:12:31 > 0:12:39to investigate the fiasco. I am determined that the enquiry
0:12:39 > 0:12:46should be as cruel and translated as possible. -- as complete as
0:12:46 > 0:12:54transparent as possible. He had a stylish way of asking questions. You
0:12:54 > 0:13:04would never hear him raising his voice. He was such an engaging man
0:13:04 > 0:13:08that he was almost irresistible. While the conclusions of the enquiry
0:13:08 > 0:13:18into thousand and four did not do live a smoking gun, Lord Fraser
0:13:18 > 0:13:18
0:13:18 > 0:13:26offered his findings into it. You'll. My report has been delivered
0:13:26 > 0:13:36today within budget. He concluded there was no single villain of the
0:13:36 > 0:13:39
0:13:39 > 0:13:49piece. Latterly Lord Fraser put his skills to use as an adviser. How
0:13:49 > 0:13:51
0:13:51 > 0:14:00will he be remembered? Peter Fraser was described as quiet, clever and
0:14:00 > 0:14:07nice. I joined by Alan Cochrane, who was a
0:14:07 > 0:14:17friend of Lord Fraser. Lord Fraser was friendly with pretty much
0:14:17 > 0:14:18
0:14:18 > 0:14:28everyone across the political divide. Yes. He had an infectious
0:14:28 > 0:14:33
0:14:33 > 0:14:43giggle. It was readily used by Lord Fraser. He had friendships across
0:14:43 > 0:14:44
0:14:44 > 0:14:54the political divide. There was a famous case on a flight. The case
0:14:54 > 0:14:56
0:14:56 > 0:15:06went nowhere. On the flight with him were and Labour MP and under then NP
0:15:06 > 0:15:23
0:15:23 > 0:15:32and to Mac beers. -- and to peers. Peter Fraser carried out his
0:15:32 > 0:15:36duties. Everyone knew he was a Tory anti-me no secret of his political
0:15:36 > 0:15:46affiliations, but he still managed to land some of the biggest jobs in
0:15:46 > 0:15:51
0:15:51 > 0:16:01Scotland. Chewing the Hollywood enquiry people write me were looking
0:16:01 > 0:16:39
0:16:39 > 0:16:46for blood. But Peter Field as He was key in the Lockerbie trial.
0:16:46 > 0:16:56On devolution he went up, down, round the houses. On Lockerbie, he
0:16:56 > 0:17:08