02/07/2013

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:00:14. > :00:19.British government produces another screed saying independence for

:00:19. > :00:23.Scotland would have also some risks, this time about business and your

:00:23. > :00:28.mobile phone. But are they overplaying their hand, will be

:00:28. > :00:32.public not tire of what yes supporters are dubbing Project Fear?

:00:32. > :00:37.Good evening. Vince Cable came to Scotland this morning to launch a

:00:37. > :00:41.paper to so how Scottish business and if it's from being in the UK.

:00:41. > :00:45.Leaks of some of the details over the weekend were described as silly,

:00:45. > :00:55.even by some of his own side and as balderdash by some of the yes

:00:55. > :01:03.

:01:04. > :01:13.campaign. Could negative campaigning Coming soon... To a screen near you.

:01:14. > :01:19.

:01:19. > :01:27.A new psychological thriller. future. In an independent

:01:27. > :01:32.Scotland... No one will hear you scream. Of course, this isn't

:01:32. > :01:36.actually a proper film but the title is still very much rooted in

:01:36. > :01:45.reality. Independence campaigners have started using the phrase

:01:45. > :01:49.Project Fear. But are some of the storyline is a

:01:49. > :01:53.bit far-fetched? The UK government suggested Scottish independence

:01:53. > :01:57.would leave mobile phone users facing higher bills raising the

:01:57. > :02:03.possibility of Scottish collars being hit by roaming fees when they

:02:03. > :02:13.visit England but EU rules mean roaming charges will actually fall

:02:13. > :02:17.

:02:18. > :02:23.English! Delivering the latest warning at this clothing factory in

:02:23. > :02:28.Glasgow, UK Business Secretary Vince Cable said independence could

:02:28. > :02:31.balance an the rest of the country but at the same time defended his

:02:31. > :02:34.government of against charges of negativity arguing voters had to be

:02:34. > :02:41.aware of the risks. I think it is perfectly sensible to have a

:02:41. > :02:46.grown-up debate which is not emotional and sets out the benefits.

:02:46. > :02:50.And the costs. It is not sensible to believe you can float into an

:02:50. > :02:53.independent country and not have consequences. Of course there are

:02:53. > :02:57.consequences and it is correct we spell out some of those problems and

:02:57. > :03:01.uncertainties but we must do it in a sensible, grown-up way and be

:03:01. > :03:05.positive. What I was saying this morning is that we have to be

:03:05. > :03:09.positive about Scotland's role in the British single market. Another

:03:09. > :03:13.major storyline in this debate has been defence. Will an independent

:03:13. > :03:21.Scotland be able to get rid of nuclear weapons, could afford its

:03:21. > :03:28.own military forces and so on? Today, Scottish minister Keith Brown

:03:28. > :03:34.at outlined visions at the Scottish defence committee. How many frigates

:03:34. > :03:37.will you have, submarines? You say you have no idea at all. We can go

:03:37. > :03:40.over the transcript but he said repeatedly that you did not have

:03:41. > :03:48.figures for each of the types. Chairman, if I could say it would be

:03:48. > :03:52.useful, if you check the record you will find things that I have been

:03:52. > :03:56.accused of. My own personal dealings with the Scottish government and its

:03:57. > :04:01.elected members, I have to say, have generated more heat than light in

:04:01. > :04:07.the area of trying to understand what it is that the Scottish

:04:07. > :04:11.government thinks its defence posture would be. As the bickering

:04:12. > :04:21.continues, one Nationalist MSP used her newspaper column to call for an

:04:21. > :04:27.end to the scare stories. Project Fear is the title that is very well

:04:27. > :04:31.named, it sounds like it is on repeat and the more you repeat them,

:04:32. > :04:36.the more you repeat them, Vasiliev a sound and particular in this week,

:04:36. > :04:43.about telecoms, that story was an absolute disaster. But as the

:04:43. > :04:48.prounion campaign -- is the prounion campaign making a valid point? Is it

:04:48. > :04:51.unbecoming of the independence campaign to adopt phrases like

:04:51. > :04:56.Project Fear? The audience will vote with its feet.

:04:56. > :04:59.We are joined by Professor John Curtice Strathclyde University.

:04:59. > :05:06.Before we get onto some of this stuff, where are we in terms of

:05:06. > :05:09.polling? We have heard about a dozen or so opinion polls asking how

:05:09. > :05:12.people will vote in response to the question that will appear on the

:05:12. > :05:17.ballot paper. On average, they suggest that once you take out the

:05:17. > :05:24.people who don't know and won't say, we are looking at a yes vote at

:05:24. > :05:29.around 30% on average. -- 39%. We do say that the opinion polls do not

:05:29. > :05:36.always agree with each other. One is consistently coming in with a vote

:05:36. > :05:39.of around 44% saying yes that means we have a still fairly substantial

:05:39. > :05:45.contest. Everybody else on average are running at about 37 which

:05:45. > :05:48.suggest the yes side have a substantial job to do. Everybody

:05:49. > :05:57.agrees it is behind that there is disagreement about how far yes is

:05:57. > :06:01.behind and so how far across the winning post is across the horizon.

:06:01. > :06:04.-- are far across the horizon the winning post is. If you look up the

:06:04. > :06:09.average of the opinion polls this year and compare it with last year,

:06:09. > :06:14.virtually nothing has changed. In a sense, the good news for the yes

:06:14. > :06:18.side is that all the negative campaigning as they see it by the no

:06:18. > :06:22.side has frankly not had any impact on public opinion but the bad news

:06:22. > :06:27.is that you are behind and you are just as far behind as you were 12

:06:27. > :06:36.months ago and at some point between now and a little more than 12 months

:06:36. > :06:39.time, you need to make progress. What about all this stuff? Don't be

:06:39. > :06:43.surprised that negative campaigning takes place, it is happening by both

:06:43. > :06:51.sides. We have got Project Fear undoubtedly on the no side but who

:06:51. > :06:55.also have something called Project Distaste on the yes campaign. Things

:06:55. > :06:59.like the spending cuts, the bedroom tax, and they then say that that is

:06:59. > :07:03.a reason to vote for independence but this means there is negative

:07:03. > :07:08.campaigning on both sides. At what the no side think they can feed into

:07:08. > :07:12.is not so much fear but uncertainty and that was one of the words that

:07:12. > :07:18.Vince Cable used in that clip you have shown. They are trying to say

:07:18. > :07:21.to people, actually, there's a lot of uncertainty about what

:07:21. > :07:26.independence would bring and therefore, do you want to take the

:07:26. > :07:30.risk? The evidence is that around three in five people in Scotland

:07:30. > :07:35.think they are not terribly sure what independence means and they are

:07:35. > :07:40.less likely to vote for independence. The mobile phone thing

:07:40. > :07:45.was a bit silly, wasn't it? Negative campaigning comes with a risk and

:07:45. > :07:52.that is that it can rebound on you. Sometimes negative campaigning work

:07:52. > :07:56.and sometimes it doesn't. Clearly to work, it needs to have credibility.

:07:57. > :08:02.There is no doubt that over the weekend, the arguments which in the

:08:02. > :08:06.report published today about mobile phones were oversold and if you ever

:08:06. > :08:12.sell it, it lacks credibility. Another similar example, negative

:08:12. > :08:22.campaigning that doesn't work which is the Tory campaign before the

:08:22. > :08:22.

:08:22. > :08:28.general election in 1979 -- 1997, saying new Labour had danger. But on

:08:28. > :08:32.the other hand if we look at the current coalition attack on the

:08:32. > :08:35.Labour Party, blaming them that we are still having to have austerity

:08:35. > :08:39.cuts, that is still proving effective, clearing up the mess that

:08:39. > :08:44.way because. That for the public still has credibility and therefore

:08:44. > :08:48.it works but you need to avoid overselling it and it has to be

:08:48. > :08:54.credible and there is no doubt that the no campaign at least made a

:08:54. > :08:58.tactical mistake over the mobile phones. I will be joined in a moment

:08:58. > :09:02.by Blair Jenkins, Chief Executive of the Yes Scotland campaign that has

:09:03. > :09:12.from London I am joined by Ian Murray who is a Labour MP and Shadow

:09:13. > :09:17.

:09:17. > :09:27.business Minister representing Treasury paper on the currency and

:09:27. > :09:28.

:09:28. > :09:34.the stuff like that. This seems a shoddy effort, compared to that?

:09:34. > :09:40.It's a list of things saying, they would have to be separate in a

:09:40. > :09:48.separate Scotland, that might cost money, well, yeah, so what? Well,

:09:48. > :09:57.Gordon, you are belittling the questions that need to be asked.

:09:57. > :10:02.Businesses are telling me every single day of the week they want

:10:02. > :10:08.answers to questions which affect their business. Ultimately it

:10:08. > :10:14.affects consumers and the cost of doing business in Scotland. What the

:10:14. > :10:19.paper states is that Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom are

:10:19. > :10:21.linked in terms of operation, in terms of business and the free

:10:21. > :10:27.movement of people. It has worked for the last 300 years. What the

:10:27. > :10:32.paper is doing is posing more questions that the SNP have to

:10:32. > :10:37.answer. It's similar to the questions about whether or not we

:10:37. > :10:43.will be in EU, which currency Scotland will use. Whether or not

:10:43. > :10:48.people will require Visas. What people will do in terms of their

:10:48. > :10:52.pensions and the welfare state. It's clear the questions have to be

:10:52. > :10:58.answered. For the Scottish Government to be prosecuting the

:10:58. > :11:03.argument for the last 80 years and not have an answer for these basic

:11:03. > :11:08.questions is concerning. You would take the point that John Curtice was

:11:08. > :11:15.making, you can over play this stuff. That stuff about mobile

:11:15. > :11:25.phones made you look silly? Let us be clear, Project Fear is

:11:25. > :11:25.

:11:25. > :11:28.terminology that the Yes campaign has given to asking questions. It

:11:28. > :11:29.can't surely be scaremongering to ask questions of the Scottish

:11:29. > :11:33.Government that are fundamental to the future of Scotland and benefits

:11:33. > :11:39.the Scottish people. On. To suggest you would have to pay roam roaming

:11:39. > :11:49.charge - the suggestion was that if Scotland were independent would you

:11:49. > :11:56.have to pay roaming charges if you used your mobile phone in England

:11:56. > :12:03.when the European Union is moving to a situation where roaming charges

:12:03. > :12:09.will be abolished across the ech U. That was just silly? There are two

:12:09. > :12:15.issues that you raised in the report. The report is more subtle

:12:15. > :12:21.than the reports in the newspapers over the weekend have led us to

:12:21. > :12:26.believe. That is because the SNP don't want to answer the other big

:12:26. > :12:35.questions in this reported and want to concentrate on something that is

:12:35. > :12:40.perhaps more subtle that people are making out. There are two things

:12:40. > :12:48.that fall from that. The EU Directive hasn't been implemented.

:12:48. > :12:53.The second thing is, will Scotland be in the EU? There are big

:12:53. > :12:59.questions to answer. It can't be scaremongering to peep posing the

:12:59. > :13:06.questions. It depends which Scottish minister answers the questions,

:13:06. > :13:10.which we saw in the Defence Select Committee, and it depends what day

:13:10. > :13:17.of the week it is to determine what answer you get. It's important to

:13:17. > :13:23.pose these questions. General has appeared. To say it's scaremongering

:13:23. > :13:30.might convince some people, it will not get you far. It's not getting

:13:30. > :13:35.you anywhere at the moment? One of the key points is despite what Ian

:13:35. > :13:40.said, Project Fear is not a term dreamt up by the Yes campaign it's

:13:40. > :13:44.the Scottish newspaper 10 days ago told us this is a name the No

:13:44. > :13:49.campaign use themselves. Privately they call themselves Project Fear.

:13:49. > :13:53.Any objective commentator - You can do better than that? That is exactly

:13:53. > :13:58.right. Any objective observer of the two campaigns will say "Yes

:13:59. > :14:04.Scotland" is running a more positive campaign. The strategy for Better

:14:04. > :14:09.Together to date, it may change, the strategy at this point is

:14:09. > :14:12.essentially to try to frighten people into voting no next year.

:14:12. > :14:19.Will frighten people if you don't come up to detailed answers to

:14:19. > :14:24.questions they are asking. There are plenty of areas where you haven't

:14:24. > :14:30.done that? There are lots of information and answers to the main

:14:30. > :14:35.questions. Both sides would concede there are things that neither side

:14:35. > :14:40.can predict with any certainty after the vote next year. Whatever the

:14:40. > :14:47.outcome the uncertainty is either way. Which side are you on? Do you

:14:48. > :14:57.take the SNP line on the currency or do you agree with Denis? I think

:14:58. > :14:59.

:14:59. > :15:07.it's the right thick to do at the point of independence and for years

:15:07. > :15:14.after. The point about the currency it's not a deal breaker for anyone

:15:14. > :15:18.in the Yes campaign. There are different views on what the long

:15:18. > :15:22.term best currency solution for Scotland is. It's one of those areas

:15:22. > :15:25.there is an honest disagreement who think independence is the right

:15:25. > :15:29.answer. We are honest about the differences between us. What we

:15:29. > :15:35.don't get from the other side is any sense of their vision for the future

:15:35. > :15:38.of Scotland. We get a tax on SNP, tax on the Yes campaign but no

:15:38. > :15:42.vision of what Scotland would be like if we had a No result next

:15:42. > :15:48.year? Will we get a Labour vision? Let me pick up on something that

:15:48. > :15:53.blair said. He said the currency wasn't an important aspect for the

:15:53. > :15:59.Yes campaign. This is nothing to do with the Yes campaign in terms of

:15:59. > :16:02.currency. It's to do with Scottish business and Scottish people. It's

:16:02. > :16:05.neither here nor there whether it's important to the Yes campaign. It's

:16:05. > :16:09.important to the CBI and SCDI, and important to the chambers of

:16:09. > :16:12.commerce and the uniones who came out with reports showing the

:16:12. > :16:17.difficulties with regards to their currency position. Yes campaign have

:16:17. > :16:20.to start giving answers to the country. Labour have got their

:16:20. > :16:24.devolution commission paper out to consultation and will bring forward

:16:24. > :16:27.proposals in the next few months. Would you like to see? In terms of

:16:27. > :16:29.what? In terms of what your proposals? We would like to see a

:16:29. > :16:33.settlement in the best interests of the people of Scotland. We would

:16:33. > :16:37.like to see devolution continues. We set up the skot Scottish - What

:16:37. > :16:41.would you auto like to see? Scotland Act hasn't been implemented yet.

:16:41. > :16:47.curious as to what you would like to see? It's not personally what I

:16:47. > :16:54.would like to see - It is -With all due respect, no the what I want to

:16:54. > :16:59.see, what is in the best interests of the people of Scotland. What do

:16:59. > :17:03.you think would be in the best interests of people of Scotland?

:17:03. > :17:08.devolution is in the best interests of Scotland that would be my view.

:17:08. > :17:12.It's not for me to suggest whether we use the euro or sterling it's not

:17:12. > :17:15.for me to suggest a basket of devolution powers not in the best

:17:15. > :17:19.interests of Scotland. It's like filling your shopping basket up

:17:19. > :17:23.without knowing what you want to eat. We are putting forward a

:17:23. > :17:27.positive vision for the future of Scotland on the devolution journey.

:17:27. > :17:31.That has to be in the best interests of the Scottish people. It's surely

:17:31. > :17:34.not about me. Nobody cares what Ian Murray thinks about what should be

:17:34. > :17:39.devolved to Scotland and what shouldn't be devolved. It's about a

:17:39. > :17:42.detailed analysis of what is the best for Scotland. I don't think

:17:43. > :17:46.what conclusion should be drawn what Ian Murray thinks about these

:17:46. > :17:49.issues. We are setting out a clear perspectous that Scotland would have

:17:49. > :17:54.a better deamong ratione, fairer society and stronger economy if we

:17:54. > :17:58.vote for independence. The story of the UK - the story of the UK for

:17:58. > :18:01.mother than 30 years now is the story of the erosion of the ideal of

:18:01. > :18:07.equality of opportunity. Next year, people in Scotland - That is a bufrn